IENG 423 Design of Decision Support Systems Model Based Decision Support Systems 10/10/2015 1...
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Transcript of IENG 423 Design of Decision Support Systems Model Based Decision Support Systems 10/10/2015 1...
IENG 423 Design of Decision Support Systems
Model Based Decision Support Systems
04/19/23 1Internet as a Decision Support Tool
What are these?
What do you call the one on the left?The right?
Pasted from <http://images.google.com/images?gbv=2&hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&sa=3&q=toy+car&btnG=Search+images>
Pasted from <http://www.hobbyplace.com/plastics/carsindex.php>
How about this?
What do we use these things for?What makes them different from a toy?What is its utilize?
Pasted from <http://www.upscaleinc.com/presentation/Promenade.asp>
Models
It represents the object that it is intended to portray……in some important functional way… it has replicated some functional aspect of the object
Models
Models can represent objects that are: Concrete or theoretical Real or imagined Past, current, or… Future – the way things will be.
Models
What is the functionality of this model?What can it tell us? Pasted from <
http://www.hobbyplace.com/plastics/carsindex.php>
How about this?
What is the functionality of this model?What might we use it for?
Pasted from <http://www.upscaleinc.com/presentation/Promenade.asp>
Models – made in a computer
Architectural,Engineering, Interior Design models
What can we do with this that we could not do with physical models?
Computer Models
Ares Space Ship
Pasted from <http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&client=firefox-a&channel=s&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=eGt&um=1&sa=1&q=3d+computer+models+ares&aq=f&oq=&aqi=&start=0>
Pasted from <http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&client=firefox-a&channel=s&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=eGt&um=1&sa=1&q=3d+computer+models+ares&aq=f&oq=&aqi=&start=0>
Computer Models
Understanding biology
Pasted from <http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&client=firefox-a&channel=s&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=eGt&um=1&sa=1&q=3d+computer+models+ares&aq=f&oq=&aqi=&start=0>
A computational model
A computational modeling system for simulating neural behavior at the cellular level using Neuroview. The images shown below are products of work done at WVU by G. Spirou, F. Van Scoy, F. Chirla, D. McLaughlin and G. Goltukhuhyan.
What is a model?
For our purposes A representation of a system that
replicates or imitates some functionality of the system
Why are models useful to us in decision support?
We can observe and try to understand the behavior of the systemWe can understand how the system will respond to changes – In inputs, Decision alternatives In context - different scenarios
Example…
Population Growth Maltusian
Growth Model
P(t) = P0ert
Malthusian Population Growth Model
Initial Pop 1000 0.1
1 1105
2 1221
3 1350
4 1492
5 1649
6 1822
7 2014
8 2225
9 2459
10 2718
Example – model energy usage in your apartment
You have 5 light bulbsAll 5 are 100 watt bulbsYou turn them all on and off at the same timeSo, 5 bulbs * 20 hours/month * 100 watts=
10,000 watt-hours or 10 kwh 10 kwh * $0.0663 per kwh = $0.6063
~61¢
Example – model energy usage in your apartment
Ok, this works but not very flexible (why?)…or generalizable (why?)So, lets create a new modelElectricity cost = (Nbulbs *watts* hours-on)/1000*rate
Example – model energy usage in your apartment
Still could be better
Electricity cost = Σ(Bwattsi*timei)/1000 * rate
Σ(100*5,50*20)/1000 * 0.0663= 10¢
But remember…
“All Models Are Wrong Some Models Are Useful”
….generally attributed to the statistician George Box