11

Townhall Presentation

IDFC Infrastructure Index

2

Indices

• National infrastructure index which includes power, telecom, roads, ports and airport

• State infrastructure index which includes power, telecom and roads

• Sectoral indices (power, telecom, roads, ports and airports)

Time period: 2006-10

Methodology

• A. Normalize variables

Step 1: Obtain the maximum value (across states) for each of the variables in the base year

Max (Cs,t=2006)

Step 2: Normalize the value of each of the variables (across states and years) by dividing the actual values by the corresponding maximum value from step 1

Vs,t = Cs,t/Max(Cs,t=2006)

• B. Combine variables and normalize

Step 3: Combine the normalized value of all the variables through appropriate weights to get the sub-index or overall index

Is,t = ∑wiVi,s,t

Sectoral Representation in National Index

• State sectors

Power

Telecom

Roads

• National

Ports

Airports

6

National Index

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Power

Telecom

Road

Port

Airport

Combined

7

State-wise Combined Index

Variables

• Power Index (1/3rd

weight)

• Telecom Index (1/3rd

weight)

• Road Index (1/3rd

weight)

8

State-wise Combined Index Values

100 10096 95

9185

77

70 69 68 67 66 66 66 64 63 62 62 62 61 60 59 59 57 56 55 55

43

2006

State-wise Combined Index Values

9

190

165 163 162157 157

134129 128 128 124

116 114 114 111 109 109 108 107 107 106102 101 101 98 97 97

93

2010

Combined infrastructure index for states has grown between 57% (Goa) to

126% (Arunachal Pradesh). Average for country is 78% growth between

2006-10

Regional trends

10

10091

77 70

165 162

128 124

Kerala Tamil Nadu Karnataka Andhra Pradesh

South

2006 2010

63 62 64 59 60 57 6243

111 109 109 108 107 101 101 98

North East – Closing the Gap within the region

2006 2010

61 66 6255

128116

10293

Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Bihar Madhya Pradesh

BIMARU - Galloping Rajasthan

2006 2010

6655 59

10697 97

Uttarakhand Chattisgarh Jharkhand

New states have lagged their parents except Chattisgarh

2006 2010

Key insights – Combined Index

• Dispersion among states has increased

• Himachal has moved from 3rd place to 1st (largely due to telecom)

• Among the “developed” states, during 2006-10,

Karnataka & Andhra Pradesh have moved three places down (due to Telecom) Maharashtra & Gujarat have moved two places up (largely driven by Power & Telecom)

• Among “less developed” states, during 2006-10

Rajasthan has moved from 20th to 9th place Bihar has moved down (Largely due to Telecom) All North Eastern states have moved up on the Combined Index with the exception of Assam. They have been propelled by the Telecom Index.

12

Top Movers on Combined Index

These states have move >1 place up or down

State Rank Change State Rank Change

Rajasthan 11 Uttarakhand -8

Jammu & Kashmir 5 Assam -6

Meghalaya 5 Goa -5

Nagaland 3 Jharkhand -5

Arunachal Pradesh 3 Bihar -5

Himachal Pradesh 2 Karnataka -3

Gujarat 2 Andhra Pradesh -3

Maharashtra 2 West Bengal -2

Manipur 2 Sikkim -2

13

Fastest & Slowest Growers - Combined Index

Fastest Growers Slowest Growers

State CAGR State CAGR

Arunachal Pradesh 23% Goa 12%

Rajasthan 20% Assam 13%

Himachal Pradesh 19% Uttarakhand 13%

Gujarat 18% Bihar 13%

Maharashtra 17% Jharkhand 13%

14

Top 10 & Bottom 10 - Combined Index

Top 10 States

Rank Base Year - 2006 Last Year - 2010

1 Goa Himachal Pradesh

2 Kerala Kerala

3 Himachal Pradesh Punjab

4 Punjab Tamil Nadu

5 Tamil Nadu Haryana

6 Haryana Goa

7 Karnataka Gujarat

8 Andhra Pradesh Maharashtra

9 Gujarat Rajasthan

10 Maharashtra Karnataka

Bottom 10 States

Rank Base Year - 2006 Last Year - 2010

28 Arunachal Pradesh Madhya Pradesh

27 Madhya Pradesh Jharkhand

26 Chattisgarh Chattisgarh

25 Jammu & Kashmir Arunachal Pradesh

24 Mizoram Assam

23 Meghalaya Mizoram

22 Jharkhand Bihar

21 Manipur Uttarakhand

20 Rajasthan Jammu & Kashmir

19 Nagaland Manipur

15

Power Index

Variables

• Per Capita Input Energy Index (1/3rd

weight)

• Villages Electrified % (1/6th

weight)

• BPL Households Electrified % (1/6th

weight)

• Peak Deficit (1/6th

weight)

• Energy Deficit (1/6th

weight)

State-wise Power Index Values

16

100

84

78 77 7572 71 70 69

65 63 63 62 62 60 59 59 58 58 57 57 56 55 55 5451 49 47

2006

State-wise Power Index Values

17

100

87 85 8481 80 78 76 74 73 73 72 72 72 71 68 66 65 62 61 61 58 58 57 56 54 53 52

2010

Regional Trends – Power

18

5660

49 51

6662 61

57

Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Bihar

BIMARU - lighting up

2006 2010

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Bihar

Rural is driving the growth for BIMARU except in M.P.

Deficits Input energy per capita

% villages electrified % rural BPL households electrified

19

Top Movers on Power Index

These states have move >1 place up or down

Improvement Decline

State Rank Change State Rank Change

Andhra Pradesh 8 Mizoram -11

Chattisgarh 7 Sikkim -7

Uttar Pradesh 7 Jammu & Kashmir -5

Gujarat 5 Kerala -5

Rajasthan 5 Nagaland -4

Arunachal Pradesh 4 Madhya Pradesh -4

Haryana 2 Tripura -3

West Bengal 2 Uttarakhand -3

Bihar 2 Manipur -2

Jharkhand 2

20

Fastest & Slowest Growers - Power Index

Fastest Growers Slowest Growers

State CAGR State CAGR

Andhra Pradesh 6.6% Mizoram -2.9%

Uttar Pradesh 5.9% Manipur -0.5%

Chattisgarh 5.8% Nagaland -0.5%

Gujarat 5.5% Tripura 0.0%

Arunachal Pradesh 4.7% Goa 0.1%

21

Contributors to growth of Power Index

StatesInput Energy Per

Capita Index% Villages

Electrified Index

% Rural BPL Households Electrified % Peak Deficit % Energy Deficit

Andhra Pradesh 29% 0% 77% -1% -5%Arunachal Pradesh 93% 8% 2% 0% -3%Assam ( R ) 31% 33% 85% -24% -25%Bihar 6% 42% 67% -1% -15%Chattisgarh 27% 14% 42% 12% 5%Goa 282% 0% 0% -91% -91%Gujarat 49% 1% 26% 20% 5%Haryana 64% 0% 19% 8% 9%Himachal Pradesh 87% 30% 3% 28% -48%Jammu & Kashmir 216% 5% 50% -104% -68%Jharkhand 15% 54% 41% -2% -8%Karnataka 31% 3% 84% -2% -15%Kerala 115% 0% 17% -9% -23%Madhya Pradesh 70% 0% 28% 21% -19%Maharashtra 69% 3% 15% 7% 6%Manipur -6% -58% -225% 194% 194%Meghalaya 14% 2% 36% 31% 16%Mizoram ( R ) 41% 0% -2% 32% 29%Nagaland -60% -18% -63% 132% 108%Orissa 33% 32% 34% 1% 1%Punjab 61% 0% 32% 23% -15%Rajasthan 25% 10% 46% 17% 2%Sikkim 461% 0% 4% -161% -205%Tamil Nadu 73% 0% 28% 14% -15%Tripura ( R ) -2086% 244% 1649% -55% 348%Uttar Pradesh 11% 27% 59% -3% 6%Uttarakhand 64% 8% 20% 16% -8%West Bengal 42% 33% 28% 1% -3%

22

Top 10 & Bottom 10 - Power Index

Top 10 States

Rank Base Year - 2006 Last Year - 2010

1 Goa Goa

2 Himachal Pradesh Haryana

3 Tamil Nadu Himachal Pradesh

4 Haryana Tamil Nadu

5 Punjab Andhra Pradesh

6 Kerala Punjab

7 Jammu & Kashmir Gujarat

8 Sikkim Karnataka

9 Karnataka Chattisgarh

10 Uttarakhand Maharashtra

Bottom 10 States

Rank Base Year - 2006 Last Year - 2010

28 Jharkhand Mizoram

27 Uttar Pradesh Manipur

26 Bihar Jharkhand

25 Manipur Nagaland

24 Assam Bihar

23 West Bengal Assam

22 Rajasthan Tripura

21 Nagaland West Bengal

20 Arunachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh

19 Tripura Madhya Pradesh

23

Key Observations – Power Index

• Goa ranks first in the base as well as last year though the index value has

remained unchanged

• 6 of the top ten states still remain in the top ten (J&K, Kerala, Sikkim and

Uttarakhand being replaced by Andhra, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chattisgarh)

• Performance of BIMARU States has improved. Except Madhya Pradesh, all

have gained ranks.

•In terms of CAGR ranks, BIMARU states figure in the top half of the table with

Uttar Pradesh being the best performer and Madhya Pradesh being the only state

to figure in the bottom half of this table

• Performance of North-Eastern states has been disappointing. Exceptions are

Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya (to some extent). All figure in the bottom half

of the rank table in 2010

• Performance of Southern States has been mixed. Andhra Pradesh gained 8

ranks, Kerala lost 5 ranks. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have gained and dropped 1

rank respectively. Andhra Pradesh tops the CAGR rank table in the Power Index

whereas the other three figure in the middle

24

Telecom Index

Variables

• Urban Teledensity (1/3rd

weight)

• Rural Teledensity (1/3rd

weight)

• VPTs/No. of Villages (1/3rd

weight)

Telecom index - 2006

25

100 100

77

61 60 58 56 5653

49 48 47 47 46 46 4539

32

2006

Telecom Index - 2010

26

331

262

236

216 214199 196 192

172 169 168155 151 148

136 133 130122

2010

Index has grown between 4.7 times (North East) and 2.63 times (Kerala).

Average for India is 3.33 times.

Contribution to growth in telecom index

27

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Telecom growth is now rural driven

% of villages with VPTs Urban Teledensity Rural Teledensity

Rural teledensity in India is 24 (ranges from while the urban teledensity is 120.

Urban teledensity ranges from 91 in M.P. to 298 in H.P. The rural teledensity

range is between 15 (Bihar) to 52 in H.P.

28

Top Movers on Telecom Index

These states have move >1 place up or down

Improvement Decline

State Rank Change State Rank Change

Rajasthan 6 Assam -4

J & K 5 Karnataka -3

North East 4 Andhra Pradesh -3

Bihar -3

West Bengal -2

Orissa -2

29

Fastest Growers - Telecom Index

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

North East Rajasthan J & K Maharashtra Haryana

The Fast Five

Key insights – Telecom Index

• The North Eastern group of states has been an outperformer on this index recording thehighest CAGR of 47% and improving by 4 positions from 18 to 14

• The growth in the BIMARU States has been largely driven by the Rural Teledensity Sub-index which has contributed anywhere between 62% (in case of Bihar) to 74% (in case ofRajasthan)

Rajasthan has gained 6 places, the most among all circles and is 7th in 2010. It wasalso the second fastest CAGR grower among all circles at 43% Uttar Pradesh has gained 1 place whereas Madhya Pradesh and Bihar have bothdropped by 1 and 3 places respectively and are at the 18th and 17th position respectivelyin 2010. All of these states grew between 30-33% CAGR Dispersion from Himachal Pradesh (top state in the base year) has widened in case ofall states

• Southern states have given mixed performance Kerala and Tamil Nadu have maintained their places at 2 and 4 respectivelywhereas, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have lost 3 places each and appear at place 11and 9 respectively The Index is driven by the Rural Teledensity which has contributed anywhere between70% (for Karnataka) to 85% (for Tamil Nadu) Dispersion from Himachal Pradesh (top state in the base year) has widened in case ofall states. Kerala in the base year had an index value equivalent to Himachal Pradesh buthas it lower by one-fifth that of Himachal Pradesh in the last year

•With the exception of Tamil Nadu (which occupies the 6th position in CAGR ranks growing at37%), all Southern States figure in the bottom half of the CAGR rank table

31

Road Index

Variables

• Lane Length of National Highways per unit of Geographical

Area (1/3rd

weight)

• Length of Rural Roads per unit of Geographical Area

(1/3rd

weight)

• Habitations Coverage in % (1/3rd

weight)

32

Road Index Values

100

9087

8178

7369 68 67 66 65

61 59 58 58 56 56 56 55 55 55 54 52

4340 39

2521

2006

33

108103

96 95 95

83

75 74 72 71 71 7065 65 64 64 62 60 60 60 60 59

56

49 49 48

3128

2010

Road Index Values

34

Contribution to Growth of Road Index

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Rural roads are driving the growth in rural states

% of habitations connected Rural roads by population NH-LaneKm by population

Note: In above figure, rural states refer to those with 75% or more

rural population

35

Top Movers on Road Index

These states have move >1 place up or down

Improvement Decline

State Rank Change State Rank Change

Rajasthan 5 Meghalaya -7

Gujarat 4 Jharkhand -5

Assam 3 Kerala -2

Uttar Pradesh 2 Nagaland -2

West Bengal 2 Manipur -2

Himachal Pradesh 2

36

Fastest & Slowest Growers - Road Index

Fastest Growers Slowest Growers

State CAGR State CAGR

Arunachal Pradesh 10% Kerala 1%

Uttar Pradesh 7% Meghalaya 1%

Madhya Pradesh 6% Goa 1%

Haryana 5% Mizoram 1%

Chattisgarh 5% Nagaland 1%

37

Top 10 & Bottom 10 - Road Index

Top 10 States

Rank Base Year - 2006 Last Year - 2010

1 Goa Tamil Nadu

2 Tamil Nadu Goa

3 Punjab Punjab

4 Kerala Uttar Pradesh

5 Haryana Haryana

6 Uttar Pradesh Kerala

7 Tripura Tripura

8 Nagaland Karnataka

9 Karnataka West Bengal

10 Manipur Nagaland

Bottom 10 States

Rank Base Year - 2006 Last Year - 2010

28 Arunachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir

27 Jammu & Kashmir Arunachal Pradesh

26 Madhya Pradesh Chattisgarh

25 Chattisgarh Sikkim

24 Sikkim Madhya Pradesh

23 Rajasthan Mizoram

22 Mizoram Jharkhand

21 Gujarat Meghalaya

20 Maharashtra Maharashtra

19 Assam Uttarakhand

38

Key insights – Road Index

• Barring Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the North Eastern States have not done so well. Both Arunachal Pradesh and Assam have gained in ranks and are the 1st and 9thfastest growers in CAGR. All other states in this basket appear in the last 8 in terms ofCAGR ranks Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya’s growth has been driven by the NationalHighways sub-index whereas, in all the other states, the rural sub-indices have drivengrowth Dispersion from Goa (top state in the base year) has widened in the case ofMeghalaya and Mizoram, remained constant in the case of Nagaland and narrowed in allother cases

• The performance of BIMARU States has been good with each of the states having moved upin ranks. Rajasthan moved up the most i.e. 5 places and Bihar the least by 1 place

All four states figure in the top eight states in ranking the CAGR growth, with UttarPradesh being the best performer within the pack The contribution to growth in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has come equally from theNational Highways Index as well as the Rural Indices, whereas in the case of MadhyaPradesh and Rajasthan, the rural indices have been the bigger contributors (60% forRajasthan and 70% for Madhya Pradesh)

• The performance of Southern States has been mixed with Tamil Nadu topping the road indexin 2010 gaining 1 rank over the period. Karnataka too gained 1 rank but on the otherhand, Andhra Pradesh has dropped 1 rank and Kerala has dropped 2

Kerala is at the bottom in CAGR rank and Tamil Nadu (the best performer in this packis at 6th position) With the exception of Kerala, all other states derive majority (close to 70%) of theirgrowth from the contribution of National HighwaysDispersion from Goa (top state in the base year) has narrowed in all states exceptKerala where it has increased by 1 point. Tamil Nadu has been an exception.

39

Port Index

100

120

140

160

180

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Major Ports

Non-Major Ports

Total Ports

Non-Major Ports have clearly dominated the growth of the sector

40

Airport Index

100

110

120

130

140

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Airport Index