Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada

National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Background

Innovation is expected to give solutions for global and national issues.

•We have to cope with climate change, aging population, etc.

•S&T that have potential to make innovation happen should be focused on.

• Establishment of CSTP - Top down decision making

• Link between S&T policy and foresight

2001

1971 -2001 The Technology Foresight

2005 The 8th S&T Foresight

Multi methods

Delphi

2010 The 9th S&T Foresight

Mission-oriented & interdisciplinary

Global and national changes

2010 Integration with innovation policy

1995S&T Basic

Law1996-2000The 1st S&T Basic

Plan

2001-2005The 2nd S&T Basic

Plan

2006-2010The 3rd S&T Basic

PlanInnovation 25

2011-2015The 4th S&T Basic

Plan

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Survey design

Science and technology foresight for solving grand challenges

•Mission-oriented approach: four grand challenges and solutions for them

•Interdisciplinary discussion / diversified participants

•Integrative study

Scenario writing

Delphi survey

Regional workshop

To find a solution in grand challenges:

•What are priority research areas from a strategic point of view?•W hat areas of science and technology should be promoted to be integrated?•What social system has to be introduced, or restructured?

Four grand challenges

Central player in the scientific and technological arena

Sustainable growth through green innovation

Successful model for a healthy and aged society

Secure life

Social system

renovation

International collaboratio

n

Global challenge and national challenge

Global challenge and national challenge

Global challenge and national challenge

Global challenge and national challenge

Solution

“Integration of wisdom” toward solving the challenges

Strategic priority research for each area

Basic research

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Method: Preliminary discussion

Mission/contribution of S&T

•Four thematic panels discussed on contribution of S&T regarding safety, security, international cooperation, and international competitiveness.

•Panels concluded 24 priority issues and importance of system thinking.

Reassurance on safety:Transparent systemHigh quality of health etc.

International cooperation:Development of untapped/un-discovered resourcesInternational expansion of education serviceetc.

Security:Ensuring safety of artificial objectsSafety from environment and disasteretc.

International competitiveness:Technology transfer donation to explore future demandProposal of original methodologiesetc.

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Method: Delphi survey

　　

Interdisciplinary approach, breaking away from established disciplines

Mission-oriented approach

Discussion on:

-Safety-Security-International collaboration-International competitiveness

Panel Viewpoint

Panel 1

Utilization of electronics, communication, and nanotechnology in a ubiquitous society.

Panel 2

Information technology including media and contents.

Panel 3

Biotechnology and nanotechnology to contribute to humankind.

Panel 4

Medical technology to contribute to healthy lifestyles of the nation’s people using IT.

Panel 5

Understanding of dynamics of space, earth, and life, and science and technology which expand the region of human activity.

Panel 6

Promotion of diverse energy technology innovations.

Panel 7

Necessary resources, including water, food, minerals.

Panel 8

Technologies for protecting environment and forming sustainable society.

Panel 9

Fundamental technologies, including substances, materials, nanosystems, processing, measurement, etc.

Panel 10

Manufacturing technologies which totally support development of industry, society, and science and technology.

Panel 11

Strengthening of management led/required by advancement of science and technology.

Panel 12

Infrastructure technologies supporting daily life base and industrial base.

目標別議論

安心

安全

（国際）協調

（国際）競争

人文

・社会

科学

系メ

ンバ

ーを

含む

学際

的議

論

科学技術の分野横断議論

No.1

分野横断型メンバーによる融合型議論

課題 領域

No.2 No.12・・・・・

Mis

sion-o

riente

d

dis

cuss

ion

Inte

rdis

cipl

inar

y di

scus

sion

(p

artic

ipat

ion

of e

xper

ts i

n so

cial

sci

ence

and

hu

man

ities

)

(Intl) competition

Security

Safety

(Intl) cooperation

Cross-cutting discussion on S&TComprehensive discussion by

participants from all areas

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Method: Scenario writing

•Expert groups prepared scenarios mainly focusing on technological and social conditions to solve grand chalenges we are facing.

•Picture of our daily life based on the results of delphi results.

•Young ICT experts envisioned services using ICT in our life in the future.

Picture of our life thirty years from now

Promoting factors toward the desired future- R&D priority- Human resource development- Cooperation/integration among fields/sectors- Reformation of social systems- Policy collaboration- Creation of new industry/business/employment- Public acceptance- International standpoint

＋

Delphi topics

Future stories

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Method: Regional workshop

Discussion of the capability of local regions regarding sustainable development.

•Workshops involving citizens, business people, researchers, and public officials.

•Discussion of desired futures and factors conducive to their realization.

Preliminary study

- Literature searching

Preliminary study

- Literature searching

Regional workshops

-Workshops at eight local regions-Discussion of desired future in the region

Regional workshops

-Workshops at eight local regions-Discussion of desired future in the region

Wrap-up workshop

-Discussion of industries, services and S&Ts that have potential for desired futures

Wrap-up workshop

-Discussion of industries, services and S&Ts that have potential for desired futures

AnalysisAnalysis

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Method: Integrative study

Picture of our daily life in the future

S&T for solving global/national

challengesScenarios by group work

Promoting factors for the desired

future

Mapping

Ideas from younger generation

New industries and services for

each regionPolicy

implicationsInterdisciplinary Delphi

目標別議論

安心

安全

（国際）協調

（国際）競争

人文

・社会

科学

系メ

ンバ

ーを

含む

学際

的議

論

科学技術の分野横断議論

No.1

分野横断型メンバーによる融合型議論

課題 領域

No.2 No.12・・・・・

Mis

sion-o

riente

d

dis

cuss

ion

Inte

rdis

cipl

inar

y di

scus

sion

(p

artic

ipat

ion

of e

xper

ts i

n so

cial

sci

ence

and

hu

man

ities

)

(Intl) competition

Security

Safety

(Intl) cooperation

Cross-cutting discussion on S&TComprehensive discussion by

participants from all areas

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Result: Picture of our daily life in the future

Better life around 2025 based on Delphi results

•A society in which various diagnostic technologies and systems are incorporated in daily life and health maintenance by individuals has started to prevail.

•A society where individuals can use various types of energy selectively based on their comprehensive evaluation of value and can feel that they proactively contribute to global warming prevention and environmental preservation.

•A society in the early stage of coping with the various disasters caused by environmental changes.

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Result: S&T for solving global/national challenges

36 delphi areas of importance

•Half of them are related to energy, environment, and resources.

•Areas related to ICT and management are also emphasized.

Areas related to energy, resource and environment

Energy [Panel 1] Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment [Panel 3]Space and ocean management technology (including observations) [Panel 5]Nuclear energy [Panel 6]Renewable energy [Panel 6]Fossil energy [Panel 6] Efficient power storage system [Panel 6]Energy saving [Panel 6]Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries resources [Panel 7]Water resources [Panel 7]Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA [Panel 7]Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources, and CCS [Panel 7] Life style and environment [Panel 8]Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming [Panel 8]Technology for urban waste minimization / material circulation for environmental conservation / resource- and energy- saving products [Panel 8]Pollution prevention for atmosphere, water and soil / circulative use technology for water resources [Panel 8]Energy, resources and environment [Panel10]

Areas related to health and medical care

Applied bio-nanotechnology [Panel 3]Medical treatment [Panel 3]Medical treatment aiming at safety and security [Panel 4]Creation of new medical technology [Panel 4]Development of predictive and preventive medicine [Panel 4]

Other areas (ICT, base technologies, management, etc.)

Socialization of information [Panel 2]Cloud computing [Panel 2]New principle for information and communication [Panel 2]Space technologies [Panel 5]Base materials for Nano-technology [Panel 9]Output (device, systemization and applied technology) [Panel 9]Globalization, value-adding and market creation [Panel 10]S&E human resource problem, the declining birth rate and aging population [Panel 10] Management corresponding to globalization [Panel 11]Management in service sector and environment business, management in education, governmental management [Panel 11]Framework for facilitation of social innovation [Panel 11]Management of human resources, transfer of knowledge [Panel 11]Strategy for maintenance of infrastructures [Panel 12]

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Result: Mapping

Health and

medical care

X12X11

X10

X9

X8

X7 X6

X5

X4

X3

X2

X1

ICT

Reduction of carbon-dioxide

emission

Water resources

Nano-/ bio-technology

Culture and life style

Support for food and production

Infrastructure

Resources

*Black codes: ID of delphiareas (the numbers indicate a panel)

* Red codes: ID of group scenarios

Delphi areas with especially strong focus (4 areas) 

Delphi areas with strong focus (8 areas) 

Delphi areas with focus (24 areas) Scenarios where S&T are expected to make great contributions

Delphi areas and group scenarios are plotted according to their similarity. Distinctive items are positioned at outer space and common items are positioned near the center.

Identifying the Direction and Promoting Factors of Innovation toward Grand Challenges

Policy implication and conclusion

•Mission-oriented and interdisciplinary approach is effective to find out the direction of innovation and its promoting factors.

•Broad participation and collaboration will be expected.

• Discussion in terms of both technology and society, that is, system thinking, will be indispensable.

To implement foresight exercise for creating innovation that leads to solving global and national challenges;