Identifying and structuring management...
Transcript of Identifying and structuring management...
Identifying and structuring Identifying and structuring management objectivesmanagement objectives
James Peterson, OR CFWRUJames Peterson, OR CFWRU
Competing Competing objectivesobjectives-- limited resourceslimited resources
Conflicting Conflicting objectivesobjectives-- gain in one = loss in anothergain in one = loss in another
Linked Linked objectivesobjectives-- one must be fulfilled to full one must be fulfilled to full
anotheranother
Hidden objectivesHidden objectives-- important but unstatedimportant but unstated
Types of ObjectivesTypes of Objectives
Case study: Bobwhite Case study: Bobwhite Quail InitiativeQuail Initiative
GA DNR program for improving quail populations on private GA DNR program for improving quail populations on private landslandsInitial focus, maximum effort in 3 countiesInitial focus, maximum effort in 3 counties
Increase quail Increase quail populationspopulations
IncreaseIncreasecarryingcarryingcapacitycapacity
DecreaseDecreasenaturalnaturalmortalitymortality
IncreaseIncreasehabitathabitat
PredatorPredatorcontrolcontrol
SupplementalSupplementalFeedingFeeding(food plots)(food plots)
Stated objective:Stated objective:
Why do we need to identify and structure objectives?Why do we need to identify and structure objectives?
Minimizes misunderstandingMinimizes misunderstandingFocuses efforts things that matter most to the decisionFocuses efforts things that matter most to the decision--makermaker
Increase quail Increase quail populationspopulations
IncreaseIncreasecarryingcarryingcapacitycapacity
IncreaseIncreasehabitathabitat
DecreaseDecreasenaturalnaturalmortalitymortality
PredatorPredatorcontrolcontrol
SupplementalSupplementalfeedingfeeding
MaximizeMaximizeharmonyharmony
MakeMakeconstituentsconstituentshappyhappy
IncreaseIncreasehabitathabitat
MakeMakebossbosshappyhappy
BiologistsBiologists Administrators/PoliticiansAdministrators/Politicians
An alternative perspectiveAn alternative perspective
Result: eliminate monitoring, expand program to set aside lands Result: eliminate monitoring, expand program to set aside lands additional countiesadditional counties
The The importance of identifying and structuring objectivesimportance of identifying and structuring objectivesccommon ommon sticking pointsticking point
Confusing fundamental and mean objectivesConfusing fundamental and mean objectives
Stated Stated (fundamental) objective of stream fishery manager(fundamental) objective of stream fishery manager::Natural Hydrologic RegimeNatural Hydrologic Regime
TimeTime
Wat
er le
vel
Wat
er le
vel
I I regimesregimes
I I regimesregimes
!! ????
Possible outcome:Possible outcome: The flow regime is natural butThe flow regime is natural but……..all the fish are deadall the fish are dead
Would the fishery managers be happy with the outcome???Would the fishery managers be happy with the outcome???
Maximize nativeMaximize nativeffish biodiversityish biodiversity
Maintain natural Maintain natural hydrologic regimehydrologic regime
Maximize habitatMaximize habitatavailabilityavailability
Means Means objectives objectives (sometimes) help(sometimes) helprealize the fundamental objectiverealize the fundamental objective
Means objectives Means objectives often are hypotheses often are hypotheses aboutaboutsystem dynamics system dynamics
Adaptive Adaptive resource resource
managementmanagementConflictConflictNoNo
Routine Routine management management
sciencescience
Negotiation, Negotiation, compromisecompromiseYesYes
YesYesNoNo
Agreement on science?Agreement on science?(how do we get there)(how do we get there)
Agreement on management objectives?Agreement on management objectives?(where do we go)(where do we go)
PoliticsPolitics BiologyBiology
The importance of identifying and structuring objectivesThe importance of identifying and structuring objectives
Identifying Identifying Objectives Objectives
Create a list of objectivesCreate a list of objectivesPersonal/organization objectivesPersonal/organization objectivesWhat do you value?What do you value?What do you want?What do you want?What should you want?What should you want?
Identify goals and constraintsIdentify goals and constraintsWhat are your ultimate aspirations? What are your ultimate aspirations? What are the external limits to achieving your goals?What are the external limits to achieving your goals?
Do not let data or information availability limit your objectives!
More common problemsMore common problems
Please leave yourmodel at the door
Dismissing potential Dismissing potential objectives due to objectives due to perceived conflictsperceived conflicts
Dismissing potential Dismissing potential objectives due to objectives due to perceived lack of perceived lack of information or information or complexitycomplexity
Objectives Jargon Objectives Jargon
Maximize = more of somethingMaximize = more of something
Minimize = less of somethingMinimize = less of something
Three very important phrasesThree very important phrases
Structuring Structuring objectivesobjectivesIdentify and organizing fundamental and means objectives.Identify and organizing fundamental and means objectives.
Fundamental objectives:Fundamental objectives: what the decisionwhat the decision--maker really maker really wants to accomplish. wants to accomplish.
Means objectivesMeans objectives the things that need to be the things that need to be accomplished to realize the fundamental objectiveaccomplished to realize the fundamental objective
Why Is That Important?Why Is That Important?
How can you / I achieve that?How can you / I achieve that?
What do you / I mean by that?What do you / I mean by that?
>>>>>> Clarity >>>>>> Clarity is is essential <<<<<<<essential <<<<<<<
Identify Identify and separate and separate fundamentalfundamental and and meansmeans objectivesobjectives
Means objectives networkMeans objectives network
MinimizeMinimizeextinction riskextinction risk
MaximizeMaximizespatialspatial
distributiondistribution
IncreaseIncreasehabitathabitat
MinimizeMinimizemortalitymortality
Why is that Why is that important?important?
FundamentalFundamentalobjectivesobjectives
How could I How could I achieve this?achieve this?
MeansMeansobjectivesobjectives
ExoticExoticcontrolcontrol
EstablishEstablishcorridorscorridors
Structuring Structuring objectivesobjectives
The values of Scrooge The values of Scrooge McDuckMcDuck
McDuckMcDuck’’ss list of objectiveslist of objectives
Have moreHave moremoneymoney
Make more Make more moneymoney
Spend lessSpend lessmoneymoney
Get Get second jobsecond job
Buy cheaperBuy cheaperbrandsbrands
InvestInvestin stocksin stocks
Why is that Why is that important?important?
FundamentalFundamentalobjectivesobjectives
How could I How could I achieve this?achieve this?
MeansMeansobjectivesobjectives
McDuckMcDuck’’ss Means objectives networkMeans objectives network
Have moreHave moremoneymoney
Make more Make more moneymoney
Spend lessSpend lessmoneymoney
Get Get second jobsecond job
Buy cheaperBuy cheaperbrandsbrands
Why is that Why is that important?important?
How could I How could I achieve this?achieve this?
InvestInvestin stocksin stocks
FundamentalFundamentalobjectivesobjectives
MeansMeansobjectivesobjectives
Recap: Identifying and Structuring Objectives Recap: Identifying and Structuring Objectives
Create a list of objectivesCreate a list of objectivesPersonal objectivesPersonal objectivesStrategic objectivesStrategic objectives
Identify goals and constraintsIdentify goals and constraints
Created objectives networkCreated objectives network
Identified important objectives (outcomes)Identified important objectives (outcomes)
Reminder: Reminder: Linking decisions to Linking decisions to objectivesobjectives
CurrentCurrentspeciesspeciesstatusstatus
ManagementManagementactionaction OutcomeOutcome
Current Current populationpopulation
sizesize
Do Do somethingsomething
Future Future populationpopulation
sizesize
FutureFuturepopulationpopulation
sizesize
Do Do somethingsomething
Quantifying Quantifying outcomes (utilities)outcomes (utilities)
For single objective, relatively easyFor single objective, relatively easyNumber of animals harvestedNumber of animals harvestedProbability of persistenceProbability of persistencePopulation sizePopulation sizeNumber of patches occupied Number of patches occupied
Quantifying Quantifying outcomes (utilities)outcomes (utilities)
Multiple objectives are much more difficultMultiple objectives are much more difficult
Conflicting objectivesConflicting objectives
Large Large number of approachesnumber of approaches
No single best method, No single best method, stakeholder inputstakeholder input
Try Try to value each objective and come up with an to value each objective and come up with an overall objective containing both overall objective containing both valuesvalues
Dealing Dealing with conflicting objectiveswith conflicting objectives
Utility = species A + species BUtility = species A + species B
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es A
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es A
Grassland habitatGrassland habitat
optimumoptimum
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es B
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es B
Management decision: Management decision: how much grassland habitat to maintainhow much grassland habitat to maintain
Problem: Problem: If objectives are treated as equalIf objectives are treated as equal, , the the stronger stronger biological relationship will biological relationship will dominatedominate
Pick Pick 1 objective as primary and constrain to 1 objective as primary and constrain to acceptable values of secondacceptable values of second
Dealing Dealing with conflicting objectiveswith conflicting objectives
Using a constraint to define the minimumUsing a constraint to define the minimumaallowable size for species Allowable size for species A
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es A
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es A
Grassland habitatGrassland habitat
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es B
Popu
latio
n si
ze s
peci
es B
Management decision: Management decision: how much grassland habitat to maintainhow much grassland habitat to maintain
Defining Measurement ScalesDefining Measurement Scales
ObjectiveObjective AttributeAttributeMinimize costsMinimize costs $$$$$$
Maximize population sizeMaximize population size Number Number animalsanimals
Maximize occupancy rateMaximize occupancy rate ProbabilityProbability
Minimize extinction probabilityMinimize extinction probability ProbabilityProbability
Maximize user satisfactionMaximize user satisfaction ??????
CostCostManagementManagementNoNoManagementManagementgaingainMarginalMarginal --==
Accounting for the cost of managementAccounting for the cost of management
Estimated Population SizeEstimated Population SizeDecision Decision
alternativealternativeNo No
managementmanagement AlternativeAlternative CostCost Marginal gainMarginal gainDo nothingDo nothing 100100 100100 00 --
Stock fishStock fish 100100 150150 100100 (150 (150 –– 100)/100 = 0.5100)/100 = 0.5
Improve habitatImprove habitat 100100 200200 250250 (200 (200 –– 100)/250 = 0.4100)/250 = 0.4
Establish priorities among the objectives by making Establish priorities among the objectives by making a series based on a series based on pairwisepairwise comparisons. comparisons.
Individually rank importance or value of outcomesIndividually rank importance or value of outcomes
MultiMulti--criteria objectives criteria objectives
Endangered species Endangered species recoveryrecovery
1.0001.000
Costs of Costs of managementmanagement
0.3330.333
Population Population sizesize
0.3330.333
Public Public satisfactionsatisfaction
0.3330.333
Equal valueEqual value
Establish priorities among the objectives by making Establish priorities among the objectives by making a series based on a series based on pairwisepairwise comparisons. comparisons.
Individually rank importance or value of outcomesIndividually rank importance or value of outcomes
MultiMulti--criteria objective criteria objective
Endangered species Endangered species recoveryrecovery
1.01.0
Costs of Costs of managementmanagement
0.30.3
Population Population sizesize0.50.5
Public Public satisfactionsatisfaction
0.20.2
Unequal valueUnequal value
Case study: Largemouth bass management in GeorgiaCase study: Largemouth bass management in Georgia(Peterson and Evans 2002)(Peterson and Evans 2002)
Largemouth bass Largemouth bass angler satisfactionangler satisfaction
ProvideProvideconsistentconsistentanglinganglingopportunities opportunities (stable population)(stable population)
Maximize Maximize tournamenttournamentangler angler satisfactionsatisfaction
Maximize Maximize number of number of creelable creelable largemouth basslargemouth bass
(number of creelable LMB)(number of creelable LMB)(number of large LMB)(number of large LMB)
MaximizeMaximizerecreationalrecreationalangler angler satisfactionsatisfaction
Maximize Maximize number number of large fish of large fish
(quantifiable objectives = outcomes)(quantifiable objectives = outcomes)
Tournament anglers
Recreational anglers
Number of respondents 54 43
Rank in order of importance to you the following qualities of a bass fishery (3= most important, 1 = least)1.
Consistency in the fishery year after year
2.55 2.59
More bass above the length limit, but fewer very large bass
1.81 1.66
More large bass, but fewer bass overall
1.64 1.74
Case study: Largemouth bass management in GeorgiaCase study: Largemouth bass management in Georgia(Peterson and Evans 2002)(Peterson and Evans 2002)
Largemouth bass Largemouth bass angler satisfactionangler satisfaction
1.001.00
TournamentTournamentangler angler
satisfactionsatisfaction0.5570.557
RecreationalRecreationalangler angler
satisfactionsatisfaction0.4430.443
WestPoint Angler SurveyWestPoint Angler Survey
% tournament anglers = 54/(54+43) = 55.7% tournament anglers = 54/(54+43) = 55.7
% tournament anglers = 43/(54+43) = 44.3% tournament anglers = 43/(54+43) = 44.3
Tournament anglers
Recreational anglers
Number of respondents 54 43
Rank in order of importance to you the following qualities of a bass fishery (3= most important, 1 = least)1.
Consistency in the fishery year after year
2.55 2.59
More bass above the length limit, but fewer very large bass
1.81 1.66
More large bass, but fewer bass overall
1.64 1.74
Case study: Largemouth bass management in GeorgiaCase study: Largemouth bass management in Georgia(Peterson and Evans 2002)(Peterson and Evans 2002)
Largemouth bass Largemouth bass angler satisfactionangler satisfaction
1.001.00
TournamentTournamentangler angler
satisfactionsatisfaction0.5570.557
RecreationalRecreationalangler angler
satisfactionsatisfaction0.4430.443
WestPoint Angler SurveyWestPoint Angler Survey
stable stable ppopulationopulation
0.4250.425
#creelable #creelable LMBLMB0.3020.302
# # large large LMBLMB0.2730.273 stable stable
populationpopulation#creelable #creelable
LMBLMB# # large large LMBLMB
Quantifying the outcome of individual objectivesQuantifying the outcome of individual objectivesRanking individual of outcomes for each objectiveRanking individual of outcomes for each objective
Attribute scaleAttribute scale# large LMB# large LMB # creelable LMB# creelable LMB Population stabilityPopulation stability
OutcomeOutcome RankRank OutcomeOutcome RankRank OutcomeOutcome RankRankLowLow 11 LowLow 11 LowLow 11
MediumMedium 22 MediumMedium 22 MediumMedium 22HighHigh 33 HighHigh 33 HighHigh 33
RecreationalRecreationalangler angler
satisfactionsatisfaction0.4430.443
stable stable ppopulationopulation
0.4250.425
#creelable #creelable LMBLMB0.3020.302
# # large large LMBLMB0.2730.273
How would recreational anglers value an outcome?How would recreational anglers value an outcome?
Assume Assume LowLow # LMB (# LMB (rank = 1rank = 1))Medium Medium # creelable # creelable LMB LMB (rank= 2)(rank= 2)High population stability High population stability (rank = 3)(rank = 3)
Recreational angler satisfaction Recreational angler satisfaction scorescore
(1* 0.273) (1* 0.273) + + (2*0.032) (2*0.032) + + (3*0.425(3*0.425))
= 1.612 = 1.612
MultiMulti--criteria objectivescriteria objectives
Worst Worst outcomeoutcome
BestBestoutcomeoutcome
Ranking combinations of outcomes for each objectiveRanking combinations of outcomes for each objective
# large LMB# large LMB # creelable LMB# creelable LMBPopulation Population
stabilitystability RankRankLowLow LowLow LowLow 11LowLow LowLow MediumMediumLowLow LowLow HighHighLowLow MediumMedium LowLowLowLow MediumMedium MediumMediumLowLow MediumMedium HighHighLowLow HighHigh LowLowLowLow HighHigh MediumMediumLowLow HighHigh HighHigh
MediumMedium LowLow LowLowMediumMedium LowLow MediumMediumMediumMedium LowLow HighHighMediumMedium MediumMedium LowLowMediumMedium MediumMedium MediumMediumMediumMedium MediumMedium HighHighMediumMedium HighHigh LowLowMediumMedium HighHigh MediumMediumMediumMedium HighHigh HighHigh
HighHigh LowLow LowLowHighHigh LowLow MediumMediumHighHigh LowLow HighHighHighHigh MediumMedium LowLowHighHigh MediumMedium MediumMediumHighHigh MediumMedium HighHighHighHigh HighHigh LowLowHighHigh HighHigh MediumMediumHighHigh HighHigh HighHigh 2727
Where do we get the values/ranking?Where do we get the values/ranking?
SurveysSurveys
Stakeholder meetingsStakeholder meetingsCConsensusonsensusMajority voteMajority vote
Case study: R.L. Harris DamCase study: R.L. Harris Dam(Elise Irwin, ALCFWRU)(Elise Irwin, ALCFWRU)
What if stakeholders canWhat if stakeholders can’’t agree on the values?t agree on the values?
Competing objectives!Competing objectives!
ObjectivesObjectives
1.1. Maximize diversity and abundance of native Maximize diversity and abundance of native fauna and florafauna and flora
2.2. Minimize bank erosion downstream from Minimize bank erosion downstream from HarrisHarris
3.3. Maximize water levels in the reservoirMaximize water levels in the reservoir4.4. Maximize boating and angling opportunities Maximize boating and angling opportunities
downstream from Harrisdownstream from Harris
Stakeholders could not agree on objective valuation or Stakeholders could not agree on objective valuation or rankingsrankings
SolutionSolution
Amount of Amount of bank erosion bank erosion downstream downstream
water levels inwater levels inthe reservoirthe reservoir
Number of nativeNumber of nativefishesfishes
DecisionDecisionDam operation plan ADam operation plan ADam operation plan BDam operation plan BDam operation plan CDam operation plan C
Number of Number of DownstreamDownstreamfloat daysfloat days
Show the stakeholders the individual estimated effects of eachShow the stakeholders the individual estimated effects of eachddam operation planam operation plan
One burning question:One burning question:DoesnDoesn’’t the way we value outcomes affect our t the way we value outcomes affect our decision?decision?
Yes, but Yes, but ……....
There are methods for evaluating the sensitivity of There are methods for evaluating the sensitivity of decisions to objective valuationdecisions to objective valuation
--indifference curvesindifference curves
We will learn more about these laterWe will learn more about these later
On to the case studyOn to the case study…………....Identify the decision Identify the decision
situation and objectivessituation and objectives
Identify the management alternativesIdentify the management alternatives
Decompose and model the problemDecompose and model the problem
Identify the best alternativeIdentify the best alternative
Perform sensitivity analysisPerform sensitivity analysis
Is further Is further analysis needed?analysis needed?
Implement the best alternativeImplement the best alternative
NONO
YESYES
From From ClemenClemen and Reilly 2001and Reilly 2001