IDEAs-RIS Workshop on “Nature and Implications of Expanding Presence of India and China for Developing Asia

Asian Experience through trade, Aid and Investment: South Asia

I.N.Mukherji

Senior Consultant

RIS

5-6 November, 2009

INDIA AND CHINA IN SOUTH

ASIA TRADE

Figure 2: China and India's Export Shares in South Asia (US$'000): 2008

India10,130,441,

44%China

12,804,490, 56%

Figure 1: China and India's Export Shares in South Asia (US$'000): 2000

China, 2,235,616,

57%

1,719,206, 43%

India

Between 2000-2008 both the countries’ trade has expanded in South Asia but their relative shares remain about the same.

Figure:4: China and India's Import Shares from South Asia (US$'000): 2008

China, 1,209,335,

36%

India 2,180,010,

64%

Figure 3: China and India's Import Shares in South Asia (US$'000): 2000

China, 536,426,

52%

India, 501,120,

48%

In 2000 the import shares of China and India were about equal. In 2008 the shares of china and India became about one-third and two-thirds respectively.

Figure 6: India's Exports to South Asian Countries by End-Use Classification: 2008

9%

50%

27%

14%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

Figure 5: China's Exports to South Asia by End-Use Classification: 2008

2%

53%

20%

25%Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

In 2008 both countries exported predominantly intermedite goods of around 50%. However China exported relatively more capital goods while India relatively more consumer goods and raw materials.

China's Imports from India by End-use classification: 2000

96%

3%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0% Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

India's Imports from South Asian Countries by End-use classification: 2000

21%

46%

32%

1%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

In 2000 China predominantly imported intermediate goods (96%), and miniscule consumer goods. By contrast, India’s import structure was more balanced, importing intermediate goods, consumer goods and raw materials in order of importance.

India's Imports from South Asian Countries by end-use Classification: 2008

18%

40%

33%

9%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

China's Imports from south Asian Countries by End-use Classification: 2008

32%

63%

4%

1%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

In 2008 China continued to import predominantly intermediate goods, but also raw materials. Its imports of consumer goods and capital goods was modest to negligible. India continued to import intermediate goods but also consumer goods , raw materials as also some capital goods.

INDIA AND CHINA IN ASEAN

TRADE

 

ASEAN’s Imports from India, China and World

(Value in $ billion)

Year China India World

2000 16.74 3.13 349.72

2001 19.4 3.56 334.67

2002 26.13 4.03 355.05

2003 32.74 4.47 397.93

2004 46.57 7.16 496.22

2005 59.72 8.47 576.75

2006 67.35 9.68 615.24

Source: WITS Database, March 2008

Share of India and China in ASEAN's World Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Share

in P

erc

enta

ge

China India

In 2000, 50% of ASEAN’S imports from India were intermediate goods, 19% capital and consumption goods. From China ASEAN imported 45% capital goods and 24% consumer goods.

ASEAN's Imports from India By End Use Classifications, 2000

12%

50%

19%

19%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

ASEAN's Imports from ChinaBy End Use Classifications, 2000

10%

21%

24%

45%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

In 2006, ASEAN’s share of Chinese imports went up to 60% for capital goods, whereas in case of India, the share of consumer goods went up to 39%.

ASEAN's Imports from ChinaBy End Use Classifications, 2006

4%

19%

17%60%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

ASEAN's Imports from IndiaBy End Use Classifications, 2006

8%

41%39%

12%

Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

Over the period 2000-06 the share of China in ASEAN’s world imports has gone up has gone up significantly in all end-use products (particularly in capital goods), while the share in raw materials has declined.

China's Share in ASEAN's World Imports: By End Use Classifications - 2000 & 2006

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Raw materials Intermediategoods

Consumer goods Capital goods

2000 2006

In case of India, the share of India in ASEAN’S world imports of consumer goods and intermediate goods only has gone up over the period 2000-06.

India's Share in ASEAN's World Imports: By End Use Classifications - 2000 & 2006

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Raw materials Intermediategoods

Consumer goods Capital goods

2000 2006

The share of India in ASEAN’s world imports increased primarily in case of intermediate and consumer goods.

India's Share in ASEAN's World Imports: By End Use Classifications - 2000 & 2006

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Raw materials Intermediategoods

Consumer goods Capital goods

2000 2006