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IDAHOANS PAST AND FUTURE 2015 Conference on Housing and Economic Development October 6, 2015 –...
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Transcript of IDAHOANS PAST AND FUTURE 2015 Conference on Housing and Economic Development October 6, 2015 –...
IDAHOANS PAST AND FUTURE2015 Conference on Housing and Economic DevelopmentOctober 6, 2015 – Boise, Idaho
Priscilla Salant, DirectorMcClure Center for Public Policy ResearchUniversity of Idaho
1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-100
5
10
15
20
25
30
3532
7
29
21
11 10
13
10
Population changeIdaho and the U.S., 1970 - 2010
IdahoUnited States
Pe
rce
nt
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Components of Population ChangeIdaho, 2002 - 2014
Recession years
Population change
Natural increase
Net migration
Num
ber
4,510
4,200
2,320
2,060
2,440
2,240
All other households that moved in or out of Idaho
520,000 households didn’t move23,000 households moved out26,000 households moved in
In: 12,900
Out: 12,260
4,300
2,640
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats
Interstate Migration of Households2012 - 2013, (based on federal tax returns)
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
2010-20 2020-30 2030-400
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 13
11
998
6
Population ProjectionsIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2040
IdahoUnited States
Pe
rce
nt
cha
ng
e
SOURCE: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
2010 2020 2030 204032
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
34.6
35.7
36.3 36.1
37.237.6
38.2 38.3
Median AgeIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2040
IdahoUnited States
Ye
ars
SOURCE: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
Observed Projected
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey
83%
12%
1%1% 3%
Population by Race and Ethnicity Idaho, 2014
Non-Hispanic White
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic Black
Non-Hispanic Alaska Na-tive/American Indian
Other
U.S. 63%
U.S. 18%
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
Non-Hispanic White
Hispanic Other
23
92
114
16
73
42
Population by Race and EthnicityIdaho, 1990 - 2010
1990-20002000-2010
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Idaho United States
1.6<1
9.5
6.7
Births to Deaths by EthnicityIdaho and the U.S., 2013
Non-Hispanics
Hispanics
Ra
tio
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
SOURCE: Idaho Department of Health and Welfare; US Census Bureau, Population Estimates
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
15 10 5 0 5 10
Age Distribution in Idaho, 2014
Percent of group's total population
Ag
e g
rou
p
2010-20 2020-30 2030-400
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5045
37
30
34
28
23
Hispanic Population ProjectionsIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2040
Idaho
United States
Pe
rce
nt
cha
ng
e
SOURCE: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
1980 1990 2000 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5044
4138
35
18 17 16 15
Rural Population as Share of TotalIdaho and the U.S., 1980 - 2010
IdahoUnited States
Pe
rce
nt
SOURCE: USDA, Economic Research Service
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
Idaho United States-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.7
-0.2
6.2
3.9
Rural and Urban Population ChangeIdaho and the U.S., 2010 - 2014
RuralUrban
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
Idaho Rural Urban-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
4
1
6
3 3 3
1
-2
3
Components of Population Change, by Rural and Urban Idaho, 2010 - 2014
TotalNatural Change (Births - Deaths)Net Migration
Pe
rce
nt
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates
McClure Center
for Public Policy & Research
SOURCE: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
Rural Urban-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1
6
9
14
-1
5
Population Change by Ethnicity Rural and Urban Idaho, 2010 - 2014
Total PopulationHispanicNon-Hispanic
Pe
rce
nt
cha
ng
e
• Education issues related to increasingly diverse children
• Social capital needs of communities
• Capacity needs related to front line organizations serving new minorities
IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
Recent topics:
• Rural Idaho Since the Recession
• Early Childhood Learning
• Highway Funding
• Food Security
• American Indian Education
www.uidaho.edu/idahoataglance
McClure Center
for Public Policy Research
RESOURCES FOR UNDERSTANDING DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN IDAHO
www.indicatorsidaho.org