Idaho Water Supply Outlook Report | March 10, 2011 | Idaho Water Supply Committee Meeting | idwr.idaho.govIdaho State Water Supply Meeting March 10, 2011
Snow Surveyors trying to reach Roland Summit Snow
Course on March 1, but could not because of three feet of heavy, new snow that would not pack. Photo courtesy of
Avista Corp.
% of Monthly Total SPOKANE 107 113
CLEARWATER BASIN 109 113 SALMON BASIN 66 95 WEISER BASIN 83 104 PAYETTE BASIN 65 94
BOISE BASIN 47 97 BIG WOOD BASIN 49 88
LITTLE WOOD BASIN 64 99 BIG LOST BASIN 65 93
LITTLE LOST, BIRCH BASINS 76 99 MEDICINE LODGE, BEAVER, CAMAS BASINS 69 107
HENRYS FORK, TETON BASINS 72 105 SNAKE BASIN ABOVE PALISADES 78 108
WILLOW, BLACKFOOT, PORTNEUF BASINS 74 122 SNAKE BASIN ABOVE AMERICAN FALLS 76 110
RAFT BASIN 51 127 GOOSE CREEK BASIN 67 119 SALMON FALLS BASIN 81 127
BRUNEAU BASIN 88 129 OWYHEE BASIN 66 120
BEAR RIVER BASIN 97 133
Mountain Snowpack as of March 1, 2011
Percent 1971 to 2000 Period
- > 180
' •
-··--~.--
"'\
\
Westwide SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent {SWE) 0/o of Normal
Provisional data subject ta revision
USDA
'°'NRCS ---===-----Mile$ :') 7f!. If:(: :100
Tt,e snCJtNwaN!r equivalent percent of nom,al represents. the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or rear ttje bas.in ~pated to the average value fur ttlose sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (!fpically 00:00).
'->. I '·7-
Spring and Summer Streamflow Forec,asts as of IMarch 1, 2011
Per cent
150 - 1 80
1 30 - 149
< 25
\,
...... ____ .-.----.... -- _/
seasonal peak ranges from:
Big Lost to
Summer Streamflow forecasts Idaho
/\I State Boundary ·o Major Basins Percent of Average - > 180 - 150 -1 79 - 130 -149 D 110 -129 D 90-109 D 10- 89 0 50 - 69 - 25 -49 - < 25 D Not Forecast
Map based on prov isi onal data
2011 Idaho Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) For January, February and March 2011
BASIN or/ REGION
January SWSI Value
February SWSI Value
March SWSI Value
Agricultural Surface Water Supply Shortage May Occur
When SWSI is Less Than SPOKANE 0.0 1.2 1.0 NA CLEARWATER 0.3 1.4 1.6 NA SALMON -0.1 0.0 -0.4 NA WEISER 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 NA PAYETTE 0.2 0.2 -0.4 NA BOISE 1.2 0.8 0.6 -1.8 BIG WOOD 1.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 LITTLE WOOD 1.0 0.4 0.4 -1.9 BIG LOST 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 LITTLE LOST 0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.4 TETON 1.6 0.6 0.6 NA HENRYS FORK 0.9 0.7 0.5 -3.3 SNAKE – HEISE 1.4 1.4 1.2 -1.7 OAKLEY 0.4 0.2 -1.0 -1.0 SALMON FALLS 2.4 1.2 0.9 -1.6 BRUNEAU 3.3 1.8 1.6 NA OWYHEE 2.2 0.6 0.6 -3.5 BEAR RIVER -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -2.8
SWSI SCALE, PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE, AND INTERPRETATION
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 |------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------| 99% 87% 75% 63% 50% 37% 25% 13% 1% --------------------------------------------------------- |Much | Below | Near Normal | Above | Much | |Below | Normal | Water Supply | Normal | Above| ---------------------------------------------------------
2011 Idaho Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI)
For January, February and March 2011
BASIN or/
REGION
January
SWSI
Value
February
SWSI
Value
March
SWSI
Value
Agricultural Surface Water Supply Shortage May Occur When SWSI is Less Than
SPOKANE
0.0
1.2
1.0
NA
CLEARWATER
0.3
1.4
1.6
NA
SALMON
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
NA
WEISER
0.2
-0.4
-0.8
NA
PAYETTE
0.2
0.2
-0.4
NA
BOISE
1.2
0.8
0.6
-1.8
SWSI SCALE, PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE, AND INTERPRETATION
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 |------|------|------|------|------|------|------|------| 99% 87% 75% 63% 50% 37% 25% 13% 1% --------------------------------------------------------- |Much | Below | Near Normal | Above | Much | |Below | Normal | Water Supply | Normal | Above| ---------------------------------------------------------
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
77 91 87 01 10 94 05 90 88 92 61 07 09 79 81 73 11 66 63 02 64 89 68 03 98 85 76 00 04 70 84 08 75 62 93 80 95 67 96 78 83 06 99 82 86 71 72 74 69 97 65
In ch
es o
March 1 Snow Water
April 1 Snow Water
April 1 Average 21.3
March 1 Average 17.6
Big Wood River above Hailey 7 Station Snow Index for Years 1961 - 2011 Chocolate Gulch, Dollarhide, Galena, Galena Summit, Hyndman, Lost-Wood Divide, Vienna Mine
-< (1)
m -"'
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011-oo>i , 2011-70'1::. 2011-50% 2011-Jm·::. 2011-100·::.
C)
I
Ill ~ cc· ~ ~; 0 -· a. (Q
~~ < 0 ~ a. er r.n (1) C 0 4 :e ~ 3: (1)
~.i 0 ;­ Q,Oi -,
3: ~ m ""C
(C ""C 0 "<
=s a. (1)
>< -U)
-, ~ U) -
l> I -r, -:c: ~ ...
C 0 ·.:: .. ... ·a. ·.;
Cl/ ... <L
<>IS ... C Cl/ ii :> ·s tT ... ai ... .. 3 3: 0 C
"' "' Cl/ ~ V .=
- sWEAverage - PrecAverage - SWE2011
- SWEProjectect- PrecProjected - SWE2009
Prec2011
- Prec2009
II ............ 11)11)11)11)(.)(.)(.)(.) (D A)
1000 Acre-Feet ll>Ul°"Oll>Ul°"Oll>Ul°"Oll>UI°" -· , 0 U1 0 U1 0 UI O UI O UI O UI O UI O UI ~ n
I I I I ' ' ' ' 1 1 r :r ... N w .I>, \J1 O'> -.J 0 .... C C C C C C C C 1971
3:: L I I (h
1972 ... 1971 L
n I -·~ r ::r L I <
1973 1974 111 r :; ~ L I ' "'I 0 1974 ... 1975 er 1h - (/)
1975 L
r:::i, L - (/)
1976 L 0 II) 1977 0 C 1h n L ~ :::i. 1977 L ... 111 1978 ;o ~ I I ;o II)
1979 111 n 1978 <' i ~ I I ' (h 111 1979 111 ... 1980
~i "'I 111 1981 1980 L er ., L 0 ... 1981 L !. (/) 1982 -· 111
0 C L "'I "'I 1982 L ~,, 1983 90 (/) L
1983 ,,
L
II) -1986 L "'I 111 1987 '< ::; 111 X L
1987 L 111 1988 ;o ~ ",.._ (/) I I 1988 1989 111 X
~ L (h 1989 1990 111 .-, (/) - ~ "'I (/)
1990 L -- ~ 1991 L )>
i ~ Q. -< 1991 L ~ 1992 L ff) -· (/) 111 .Q "'I -II) 1992 L
(h L C '-' -, 1993 ~ (h
1993 L ~ I I
U2 1996 1\1 1996 L L ~.
~ I 1997 0 1997 L l> (/) L ::, I I ... 1998 Q. ., " (/) 1998 L ~ ~ ~ I I I II I I ~ I I I I .Q ill 1999 i :t
1999 L = 3 L 1\1 ~ ~ ,.. Si ::i 2000 ff) < ; 2000 L ~ 0 L ., :; ~ 2001 (/) 0 ::i
::;· 0 2001 L :::!. l> 2002 C N ~ u:: "O "O 2002 !.
., L "O ~ l> I.ti 2003 '< 'Tl "O 2003 L
0 ~ L ~ ., I - "O 2004 )> =- (/) 2004 L ~ ~ I I
O" ~
2006 .,
0 2008 L
2009 )> I
~ ~ I I
' < 2011.90% ~ 2011-90% I
I ~ I I .I>, nE z 2011-70% nz z 2011-70% I C Ii
I g~ I ~ I I
H:JJ 2011.50% C ,:
~; ;::tJ 2011-50% ~ I I I
' I l> ' 2011.30% L 'Tl 8o n 2011-30% !I () "'~ -, I '-- PVl ~ I I I
2011-10% 2011-10% ' ?i ll) ;
VI . "' QI .r:. u .:
- SWEAverage - Prec Average - SWE2011
A, [ , Mondoy, Mo"h 07, · Off, --1-- --1-­
SW~ Percent I f Average: 110 SW!= P ere ent of Seasona P eak: 94 Perl:ent Need Id to Reacl Season al . WE Peak 42
Pree 2011
- Prec 2006
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
771081019287916105639402887307906664850384939800806809950408838975701179670674697662999682718678726597
Year
17 Station March Snow Index for Snake River Basin above Heise, ID 1961 - 2010
March 1 Snow Water
April 1 Snow Water
April 1 Average = 23.0
March 1 Average = 18.9
m -lU)I
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010-90%, 2010-70%, 2010-60%, 2010-30%, 2010-10%
0,
I
,:,: ,:,: "< :,:,. O"' 0 < ll'D ,a:....
0, :::a -· < (1) """'I
"""O ....... -,.,, m a. (I) ,.,, ::a (I) ,.,, (1) ""'"'I < 0 ""'"'I ,.,,
:s:: 0,) """'I 0 ::.-..... (I') C
~ n (I)
>< -(I') ~ (I') -
• • :::::o oo (I) -en ~ (I) m ~ 3 0 ::::!II =;· 0 t,...:,, :e Cf' :x> "'Tl "'O (I) ""'"'I
er oo (I)
~~~ .:.J ,,.._, ~~ (] ~5 Vl .. -.,,
2011 Snake River near Heise: Apr -Jul Vo lume NRCS Monthly I mid-Monthly Forecasts are S<1trnres
140 -
130
0
::;~ 80
' I l J - j
... ~~
l _ _.r
Runoff 2010 73% of Normal, 2598 KAF
2011 ·· based on i rrigai on de rrend of 41500 KAF and Feb 28 Jac!Gon and Palisades storage of
1530KAF, 71%of average runoff for Apr-Sep or 21970 KAF is needed for marginal! y adequae
surface irrigation supply
I I
1-0 ct 1-tl ov 1-D ec 1-Jan 1-F eh 1-Milr 1-Al>r 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Set>
~ NRCS
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
~ (A
StlOTEL Sites used: BaseCan1>, Blind Bull, Cottonwood Ck, Lewis l ake, Snake River Sta, Slug Creek, Tlumi> DivideandWillo.wCk
C
- SWEAverage - PrecAverage - SWE2011
Pree 2011
-1---1Per · ent-Need d-to-Reach-Seasonal-SWE-Peak. -7-2--+----+---- - ---+----+----+---::J~ -1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1-0ct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep
Marcl11 Bear River Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) Bear River at Stewart Dam & Bear Lake
• Streamflow Apr-Se1, I Reservoir 28-Feh ~NRCS
N.I! ii A~r(t\ (O::k'!VJt 00 ~ , (
1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200
Ade<1tmte Surface Irrigation Water Supply Above 500 KAF i
..., ~ 1100 Lr 1000 ~ 900 ~ 800 0 700 0 O 600 """" 500
400 300 200 100
0 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Years
- -
- - - -- - - - - - - - - - - -
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
""' ""' ""' ""' "'" QQQQQ NNNNN
- swEAverage - PrecAverage - SWE2011 Prec2011
50
45 . As lf Monday, March 07, )011 :
40 SWE Percent , f Average: 89 --- ___. SWE Percent 6f Seasonal _Peak: 77 -~ ,-, . Perbent Need~d t o Reach y Seasonal ~WE Peak· 170
35
30
25
20
15
10
~Jr ' ~
_j7r,J \~ · -
~ J ·~ -,..
_,.J,-- ~
5
0 1-0ct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug
----C - -
1-Sep
14
.......-2011swe 8 ----------- 1 v,~
'°' NRCS Nati r l ReSANrr.es Cl"lf,·.~J'll.:tf fi ,n S(!'J\t4Ce
~ 6, +---t---+----t---+----t---t:t~---, ~--t---t-----t-----t---+---t-ft--+----t---+-1
-~ ~ . ""..-\ 2 +--~4--~.-,~ ~rn~r --+----i---4-~~ \__._---+---4-~ ~ --+-1
~ .:::.- _J~ "'- _,.. ... .. -' .. r 0 .•
~ * Prov is ional Data~ Subject to Change :K:**
70
. 5
•• 55
15 .. 5
- Pree i p WY2011 - Sl>JE l>JY2011 - Pree i p WY2010 - Sl>JE l>JY2010 - Pree i p Avg 71-00
.~ ~ ~~~~~=::::x;s:=...~ ~ - Sl>JE Avg 71-00
10/ 1 10/ 31 1.1/ 30 12/ 30 1 / 29 2/28 3/30 4/ 21 Date (OlOl/dd)
LOST LAKE SNOTEL as o f 03/07/2011
*** Provi sional Oat.a, SubJect to Chan~ *** ·· ~------------------------------~ •• •• 75
7t
.5
•• ss
u s
• 10/ 1 10/ 31 11/30 12/30 1/29 2/ 28 3/ 30 4/ 29 5/29 6/28 7 / 28 8/27 9/ 26
Oat ~ (OIOl/dd)
- Pr ec ip lilV2011 - S~E ~Y2011 - Pree Ip ll\'2010 - S~E WV2010 - Precip Avg 71-00 - SWEA~ 71 00
ftil'I .~ .. ':'.:"' C.a. rui - -- -
~ F r
~~ ~ ( ,
' \ ) ~
..,
~ \ .. ._ _ .. - ~
Versus 19,71 -2000 Longterm Average
- 6.0 - 4 .0 - 2.0 0.0 2.0
Composite Precipita tion Anom alies (inches) Mor 1917,1971,1974, 1989,2008
Versus 1971 -2000 Longterm Average
-~-~-~~-~---'-N,'OM-'-'/'--'ES",R,-'L;.;.P.;;;SD ond CIRES-CDC
Composite Temperoture Anomolies ( F) Moy 19 17, 1971,1974,1989,2008
Versus 1971 -2000 Longterm Average
- 4.0 - 3.0 - 2.0 - 1.0 0.0
Composite Precipitat ion Anomalies (inches) Moy 1917, 1971, 1974, 1989,2008
Versus 1971 - 2000 Longterm Average
- 2.00 -1.50 -1.00 - 0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Com posite Temperoture Anomolies ( F) Apr to Jun 1917, 1971, 1974.1989,2008
Versus 19,7 1 -2000 Longterm Average
- 3.0 - 2.0 -1 .o 0.0 1.0
Composite Precipita tion Anomalies (inches) Apr to Jun 1917, 1971, 1974.1989,2008
Versus 1971 -2000 Longterm Average
- ~~~~~~-~N'rOM--'-',/ -"ES'-R,;;.L.;..PSD ond CIRES-CDC
- 5.0 - 4,0 - 3,0 - 2.0 - 1,0 0 .0 1.0 2.0 3,0 4,0 5 .0
Composite Temperoture Anomalies ( F) Mor to IAay 1917.1971.1974. 1989.2008
Versus 1971-2000 Longterm Average
Composite Precipitation Anomalies (inches) Mor to May 1917,1971,1974, 1989,2008
Versus 1971 -2000 Longterm Average
NOM/ESRL PSD ond CIRES-CDC ~ ..---.-~,---,--,~,--.~ ,'---,.~
- 4.0 - 3.0 - 2.0 - 1 .0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Snake River Station SNOTEL Site
Snake River Station SNOTEL Site with a flat pillow
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