ICT Slovenia · CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY This presentation, including any supporting materials,...
Transcript of ICT Slovenia · CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY This presentation, including any supporting materials,...
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
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Anthony Harrington PhD
Gartner Executive Programs
17th April 2018
Blockchain: Making Sense of Emerging Technologies
ICT Slovenia
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Ledger Replicated Across Peer-to-Peer Network
What is a Distributed Ledger (i.e. Blockchain)?• Bitcoin is the best known real,
proven distributed ledger (although more than two dozen competitors are underway)
• Linear list of transactions, cryptographically joined in a chain of blocks
• Replicated across P2P network
• Protocol for validation of transactions and propagation across network
• Protocol for structured update to ledger and generate of new value tokens (i.e., “mining bitcoins”)
Distributed Ledger of Bitcoin Transactions
“Genesis Block”
Block of Tx
Block of Tx
Block of Tx
Block of Tx
Node
Node
Node
Node
Node
Node
Node
Node
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Blockchain Technology's Core Concepts
▪ Mechanism for adding trust
in an untrusted environment
▪ An irrevocable record of significant
data and events, such as monetary
transactions, property records
or other valued assets
▪ Not just a passive data record,
but can optionally add dynamically
programmed behavior to events
▪ Create and exchange multivarious
assets and forms of value
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Top 11 Cryptocurrency Coins and Tokens,March 2018
Source: Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations
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▪ The Internet of Data: Any
node on global-scale
network can send a packet
of data (1969)
▪ The Internet of Content:
Any node can send a
packet (web page) of
content (1989)
▪ Internet of “Money”:
Transport protocol for value
(2030?)
Three Generations of Global-Scale Transformation
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Regardless of Coins, Most Organizations Have Not Yet Begun Using Blockchain
Have already invested and deployed; 1%
In short-term planning/actively
experimenting; 8%
In medium- or long-term planning;
14%
On the radar, but no action planned; 43%
No interest; 34%
FS has been the leading
industry historically for POC,
but the implementation rate
remains <5%.
26,000 blockchain projects
began in 2016,
only 8% still active.
Source: Deloitte
Base: All answering, excludes DK, n = 3138
What are your organization's plans in terms of the following digital technologies and trends?Blockchain/Distributed Ledger
Organizations' Plans for Blockchain (Percentage of Respondents)
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Interest in Blockchain Varies by Industry
2%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
5%
2%
4%
5%
5%
3%
4%
5%
6%
9%
11%
13%
7%
8%
13%
20%
7%
7%
10%
7%
12%
15%
11%
17%
13%
11%
24%
14%
17%
18%
28%
44%
46%
43%
47%
44%
42%
47%
38%
42%
42%
35%
49%
46%
51%
37%
44%
43%
43%
41%
40%
40%
37%
37%
35%
35%
29%
29%
29%
18%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Healthcare Providers (n = 123)
Wholesale Trade (n = 54)
Manufacturing (n = 647)
Education (n = 305)
Retail (n = 168)
Media (n = 53)
Health Payers (n = 57)
Natural Resources (n = 149)
Government (n = 460)
Services (n = 332)
Telecom (n = 55)
Utilities (n = 99)
Transportation (n = 125)
Insurance (n = 153)
Financial Services (n = 348)
Percentage of Respondents
Have already invested and deployed In short-term planning/ actively experimenting In medium- or long-term planning On the radar, but no action planned No interest
What are your organization's plans in terms of the following digital technologies and trends?Blockchain/Distributed Ledger
Organizations' Plans for Blockchain
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Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, 2017
From "Hype Cycle for Blockchain Technologies, 2017," 29 July 2017, (G00332627)
Innovation
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
DisillusionmentSlope of Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
time
expectations
Years to mainstream adoption:
less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years
obsolete
before plateau
As of July 2017
Blockchain Wallet Platform
Smart Contract Oracle
Distributed Storage
in Blockchain
Blockchain PaaS
Things as Customers
Decentralized Applications (Dapps)
Blockchain for Data Security
Metacoin PlatformsQuantum Computing
Consensus Mechanisms
Sidechains/Channels
Cryptocurrency Hardware Wallets
Cryptocurrency Software Wallets
Distributed Ledgers
Blockchain
Postquantum BlockchainSmart Contracts
Bitcoin
Zero Knowledge
Proofs
Blockchain for IAM
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Business Value-Add of Blockchain —$176 Billion by 2025, $3.1 Trillion by 2030
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▪ Crowded field of 45+ competitors
▪ 5 or 6 leading choices
▪ Competition, collaboration,
overlap, fragmentation
▪ Some vertical, others horizontal
▪ Limited interoperability
▪ Standards struggle to catch up
▪ Eventual consolidation over five
year time frame
Forecast: Multi-Blockchain World for the Next Five Years
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Who Will Win Among Competing Blockchain Platforms?
▪ The one not yet in the market
▪ Internet search engines in 1995:
– Altavista, Lycos, Terra, Excite, Yahoo,
Magellan were well-established players
– Google came later and won
▪ Social networks in 2003
– Friendster, Bebo, High5, Orkut, MySpace
– Facebook came later and won
▪ Mobile OS in 2007
– Blackberry, Nokia, Win Mobile, etc
– IOS and Android came later & won
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Characteristics of the Winner
Hardened via public blockchain deployment
Configurable for private or hybrid blockchain
Smart contract capability at multiple levels
Open source enables network effect
Functioning governance with agile response to threats
Modular architecture and open APIs enable ecosystem
Multiple equivalent implementations of same protocol
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Four Types of Blockchain Initiatives and How They Differ
▪ Estonia: Proxy voting
▪ Georgia: Land title
▪ Dun & Bradstreet: DUNS
Number
Records management by
one entity, for self or for
a community.
▪ Synereo: Content rights
and social platform
▪ OpenBazaar: B2C
marketplace
▪ Gnosis: Prediction
market platform
▪ The Royal Mint, CME
Group: Digital gold
▪ NYIAX: Advertising
contracts
▪ China carbon credit
▪ DTCC: Derivatives
clearing and settlement
▪ Maersk Line: Container
shipment and trade
▪ IBM: Supply chain
New businesses that rely
on a blockchain
foundation. Business
model may not be new.
Efficiency improvements
in transactions
and interactions.
New markets based on
digital assets created from
non-digital ones (both
physical and virtual).
Blockchain Disruptor
Digital Asset Market
Efficiency Play
Record Keeper
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The Evolution of the Programmable Economy
E-Commerce D-Business Programmable
Focus
Exploit "Nexus" to drive
greater efficiency, speed and
economies of access
Enable personalization, extend
potential customers from people
to things, introduce new monies
Smart autonomous things enable
new forms of value and
interaction, democratization of
value systems
Outcomes Optimize interactions Build new business models Enable new economic systems
Entities
DisruptionsDeeper customer relationships,
analytics
Creation of new value and new
nonhuman customers
Smart things act as proxies for
people or businesses, and
ultimately for themselves
TechnologiesInternet, mobile, apps,
big data socialAI, sensors smart assets tokens
Blockchain, metacoin platforms,
IoT, AI
Business
People
DAO
People
Smart Things
Business
People
Things
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✓ Engage your Cxo in a detailed multiyear scenario plan that accounts for the impact blockchain
will have on society, value and law. Consider the critical uncertainties of technology capabilities
e.g., AI, as well as societal acceptance for radically new/different operating models and
contracts. Ensure every senior executive is apprised of these scenarios and the timeline
for realization.
✓ Investigate, and run PoC where applicable for emerging blockchain business models. Have a
strategy to engage with startups and up date your risk management policies to account for
blockchain activities.
✓ Establish or assign accountability for monitoring developments in blockchain and smart contract
legal frameworks? Ensure your product, service and risk managers are aware of how smart
contracts work and the ramifications for your business.
✓ Ensure your enterprise has the ability to accept, manage, transfer and secure non-fiat-based
assets. Discuss with senior executives the competitive and customer implications of tokenized
value evolution.
Recommendations
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Recommended Gartner Research
Toolkit: Overview of Blockchain Use CasesDavid Furlonger (G00302283)
The Bitcoin Blockchain: The Magic and the MythsRay Valdes, David Furlonger and Fabio Chesini (G00295779)
Reinventing Education Credentials Using Blockchain as a Possible Missing Link for the Open Badge InfrastructureJan-Martin Lowendahl and David Furlonger (G00302923)
Hype Cycle for the Blockchain Technologies, 2017David Furlonger, Ray Valdes and Rajesh Kandaswamy (G00332627)
Maverick* Research: The Programmable Economy Is the Ultimate Destination for Digital BusinessRay Valdes, David Furlonger and Stephen Prentice (G00275030)
The Future of Money Is the Programmable Economy, Not Just BitcoinDavid Furlonger (G00270192)
Metacoin Platforms Will Transform Transaction Banking Payments ServicesFabio Chesini (G00276475)
How to Evolve Your Trade Finance Strategy With Smart Assets and BlockchainFabio Chesini (G00314066)
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