ICIS Consulting - Amazon S3€¦ · - China supply and demand data - 1 month real-time forecasts...

148082

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Supply and Demand Data- Global Supply and Demand Database with forecasts up to 2030- China supply and demand data - 1 month real-time forecasts

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ICIS APIC Booklet Adsindd 1ICIS APIC Booklet Adsindd 1 11516 337 pm11516 337 pm

Petrochemical Scenario Studies A series of special reports that will equip you with the critical knowledge to survive and prosper in todays chaotic petrochemical markets

Enquire about ICIS Products amp Services

wwwiciscom 2

Climate change pollution concerns and the impact on refining and petrochemicals

Stefano ZehnderVice PresidentAnalytics amp Consulting ICIS

wwwiciscom 3

Energy

wwwiciscom 4

15

20

25

30

35

40

Energy Related CO2 Emissions(Giga Tonnes)

1990

2000

2010

2014-2016

2020

2030

2020 2030

Likely Necessary TrendFor ~ 2 degC ldquoholdrdquo

Likely trend with INDC

Source ICIS Elaboration on various data sourcesIEA Ecofys World Economic Forum Mc Kinsey

Contributions from COP21 not enough to achieve ~2 degC More needs to be done

Outcome from COP21 aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degC

Recognises that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change

Emissions basically unchanged in last three years

INDC

i Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

GAP

wwwiciscom 5

Efficiency and de-carbonization are a global trend

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Trends in Total Energy IntensityTOEGDP

US Germany China India World

-50

0

50

100

150

World US Germany China India

Changes in Absolute TOE Demand(2015-2030 )

Oil Coal Gas Non Fossil

But Different Geographical Developments Will remain

Developing Asian economies are growing faster

China is a more mature energy market than India

Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database

wwwiciscom 6

Estimated impact of Coal Based Petrochemicals

Naphtha Ethane PDH CTO

Relative CO2 Emissions (per ton of Petrochemicals)

Ethylene Olefins Olefins + Aromatics

Steam-Cracking

CO2 Emission trends in China(from Olefins production)

Steam Cracking PDH Others CTO

Indicative ldquoCO2 Relatedrdquo Implications

Naphtha Steam-Cracking provides a higher production of petrochemical

CTO related Carbon Sequestration would add important investment costs

Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database ICIS elaborations on various sources

wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8

Global Refining Capacity Developments beyond Oil Demand growth

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Incremental Changes (kbd)

ASIA AND PACIFIC NORTH EAST ASIAMIDDLE EAST AFRICAFORMER USSR EUROPESOUTH amp CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH AMERICA

More from China


European and Caribbean refineries have already gone through first rationalization More to come in Europe

NE Asiarsquos China investment by state-owned refineries is slowing down but is appearing on the front of private companieshellip

The Middle East continues to increase its ability to process domestic crudes into petrochemicalshellip

wwwiciscom 9

Gasoline demand will gradually flatten not a welcomed developments for refinershellipfuel efficiency the major factor but not onlyhellip

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Global Gasoline Demand (million tonnes)

N America S America Europe amp CIS Africa amp ME Asia


wwwiciscom 10

Gasoline 2016 Key Trade Flows (Million Tonnes)

Balance Surplus Deficit

NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15


wwwiciscom 11Copyright copy 2016 ICIS

European refiners are increasingly pressuredhellipRoad fuels demand is declining refineries are rationalized

Basically a net importer of everything but gasolinehellip

024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT

Refining Capacity vs Demand

Gasoline DemandDiesel DemandCrude Capacity (right Scale Million bd)

-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils

2015 Net Balances(Million Tonne)



European Refiners face more challengeshellip

What if a higher penetration of electrical vehicles takes place

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES

Electric Vehicles Scenarios (EU 15 + EFTA)

Base Case Scenario (assumes Hybrids mostly on ICE)

Higher Penetration Scenario

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025


Higher Penetration Scenario Car Fleet Share ()

Higher Penetration Scenario New Cars Market Share ()

Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database amp ICIS Consulting


Refinersrsquo options (Europe is first but others will follow) Rationalisation (less naphtha) or more petrochemicals

Impact of a higher penetration of electrical vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE

Demand Trendsin Higher EVs Scenario

Gasoline Demand Diesel Demand

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE

Demand Impactversus Base Scenario

Gasoline Demand Change Diesel Demand Change



Chinarsquos over-investment extends to refiningGasoil stagnation and new refineries a surplus of transport fuels

But net imports of petrochemical feedstockshellip

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15

New IMO regulations will soon hit the fuel oil markethellip

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Global Balances (million tonnes)

Middle Distillates Residual Fuel Oil

Implementation of IMO regulations for lower emission will drastically target sulfur in bunker fuels as of 2020This implies that the

global refining industry could suddenly move from a surplus of conversion capacity to a surplus of Fuel OilIt is likely to provide

improved margins opportunities for high conversion refinershellip


wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential

Fuel Oil Key Trade Flows (Million Tonnes)

Balance Surplus DeficitSource ICIS Supply and Demand Database

Russian Refineries will take the hithellipAdditional

conversion capacity in China and India will ldquocrackrdquo fuel oil into additional petrochemicals

76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17

Petrochemical Feedstocks


Diverging trends will accelerate over timeGlobal petrochemical demand growth is much faster than oilrsquoshellip

and a target for refiners

41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers

Polyesters amp PUrethanes

Other Key Plastics

TOTAL

Petrochemical Demand AAGR 2015-2025


07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL

Energy Demand AAGR 2015-2025

wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC

Condensate Splitters

Crude Oil Refineries

Global feedstock demand will rapidly increase

685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791

Global incremental petrochemical demand (Million Tonne)

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs

IncrementalOil Demand is 148 MMT


wwwiciscom 20

Only 13 of petrochemical feedstocks will come from refinerieshellip

Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22

Incremental Petrochemical Feedstocks ex NGLs (million tonnes)

Ethane to C2= LPG to C2=ampC3=

US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21

Asian cost comparisons imported ethane vs traditional naphthaThe lsquoeasy decisionrsquo window on ethane imports from the US has closed

Risk appetite any hedging opportunities and infrastructure will be important considerations

wwwiciscom 22

Balances Surplus Deficit

to Japan

to rest of SampSE Asia

to China

Global propane key trade flows (2016 million tonnes)

Volumes in Million tonne

US propane will remain long flows to international markets rapidly increasingThe US is by now the

largest country exporter of Propane in the World It was a net importer of LPG just a few years ago

US Exports are now flowing to Asia and Europe where naphtha cracker flexibility is increasing

The Middle East remains the largest region in terms of exports

Ample availability in international markets have promoted Asian PDH developments

China imports are now exceeding those of Japan


202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31

-55South amp Central America

54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34

Rest of South amp SE Asia

34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88

Naphtha 2016 key trade flows (million tonnes)

Source ICIS Supply and Demand DatabaseBalance Surplus Deficit

wwwiciscom 24

Combining naphtha and gasoline creates a surplus

Global Naphtha Demand

To Gasoline To Petchems

Global Naphtha Sourcing

Ex Refineries Ex Ngls

(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes

Naphtha SupplyDemand Balances

North America South amp Central America Europe Former USSR

Africa Middle East Northeast Asia South amp Southeast Asia

Global Balance (right scale) Gasoline + Naphtha Balance



Global condensate splitting capacity to increase by 50Iran will be the major player more naphtha will be available

NORTH AMERICA6

SOUTH amp CENTRAL AMERICA

3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd


NORTH AMERICA7 SOUTH amp CENTRAL

AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST No Iran25IRAN

24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd


How does lower oil price reduce the advantage of ethane crackers over MTO

Future $60bbl Oil

Source ICIS Pricing amp ICIS Consulting

wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions

Growing fuel efficiencies and de-carbonization will shape the developing energy requirements and the fuel of choice The current pledges by nations towards COP21 are generally seen as not sufficient to actually reach the aim of the Paris Agreement It is likely that over the next years climate change regulation will become more ambitious and that new technologies will accelerate their contribution

The refining industry will have to confront with a declining oil demand growth Gasoline use by private cars will be mostly affected New IMO regulation limiting sulphur emissions will support middle distillates whilst the value of heavier high sulphur fuel oil will decline An opportunity for margins increases

As petrochemical demand expands rapidly more petrochemical feedstocks will be required and refiners will target this opportunity Despite growing competition from light NGLs on a global scale naphtha will remain a key petrochemical raw material with Asia the key market A lower oil price scenario will further support naphtha demand for ethylene production

Supply and Demand DatabaseSingle searchable source of historical data on

global petrochemical and energy markets

Historical and forecast data (1978-2030)

Over 100 petrochemical products

Over 12000 refi nery units

Over 18500 petrochemical plants

Import export and consumption volumes

Plant capacity production and operating status

Upcoming plants including speculative and announced projects

Data breakdown by country region product or product family

GDP population and consumer price index by country

More than just data the ICIS Supply and Demand Database is a powerful analytics tool which gives end-to-end perspectives across the global petrochemical supply chain including refi neries Data is derived by ICISrsquos team of Consultants using a lsquobottom-uprsquo approach ndash reconciling demand with supply production local capacity and net trade Forecasts are validated against economic indicators such as GDP and per capita consumption


Request FREE demo today gtgt

wwwiciscom 29

Uncertain demand and trade-flow patternsThe US petrochemical capacity wave plus Trumprsquos policies

Joseph ChangGlobal Editor ICIS Chemical Business

wwwiciscom 30

US President Trumprsquos business policies

Tax reformCut corporate tax rate

DeregulationlsquoLift the restrictionsrsquo on US energy streamline permitting process for all energy projects

Infrastructure boost$1 trillion investment ndash roads bridges ports airports transit systems energy telecom

Global trade ndash redrawing the mapWithdraw from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) - doneRenegotiate NAFTA (Mexico Canada) TTIP (EU) South Korea FTANew bilateral deals with China Japan aimed at cutting trade deficit

REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31

Trade stricter enforcement threat of Border Adjustment Tax

Clamping down on imports - protectionismInvestigation into global steel imports20 tariff on lumber imports from CanadaTrade actions to protect US aluminum semiconductor

shipbuilding industries

Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) ndash lsquopurersquo formExport revenue exempt from tax (huge incentive to export)Imported raw materialscost of goods sold cannot be deducted as an expense

(massive penalty to import raw materials big incentive to use local inputs instead)

Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32

USWorld chemical trade

wwwiciscom 33

US chemicals trade balance (ex pharma)

$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m

Exports Imports Trade balance

2014 2015 2016

Source American Chemistry Council

wwwiciscom 34

US chemical trade balance (ex pharma) 2016

US CHEMICAL TRADE 2016$m excluding pharmaceuticals

Exports Imports Trade BalanceCanada 20427 17436 2991Mexico 19191 4548 14643China 10648 10974 -326Belgium 7255 1495 5760Brazil 6054 1619 4435Japan 5361 5588 -227South Korea 5034 2785 2058Netherlands 4114 2056 2058Singapore 3198 2661 537Germany 2878 7149 -4271

BY REGIONEU 22445 28392 -5947Asia 34344 27907 6437Latin America 35567 9894 25673World 121362 93206 28157

-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35

US projects ndash the ethylene polyethylene (PE) wave

wwwiciscom 36

New US crackers complete under construction FID made

Company C2 capacity (ktyear) Downstream (ktyear) Location Start-Up

OxyChemMexichem 544 Feed existing VCM plant of 1050 Ingleside Texas Q1 2017 (done)

Dow Chemical 1500 ELITE PE (400) LDPE (350) EPDM (200) elastomers (320) Freeport Texas Mid-2017 (mech complete Q1)

ExxonMobil Chemical 1500 mLLDPE plus LLDPE (650 x2) at Mont Belvieu Baytown Texas End 2017

Chevron Phillips Chemical 1500 Bimodal HDPE (500) mLLDPE (500) at Sweeny Cedar Bayou Texas Q4 2017 PE mid-2017

Formosa Plastics 1250 PE (525) LDPE (6255) MEG (1000) plus DEG TEG PEG Point Comfort Texas H2 2018

Sasol 1500 LDPE (450) LLDPE (450) EOEG (300) ethoxylates detergent alcohols (300) Lake Charles Louisiana H2 2018

LDPE early 2019 Others H2 2019

Westlake (Axiall)Lotte 1000 MEG (700) by Lotte feed into existing PVC for Westlake St Charles Louisiana Q4 2018

Shintech 500 VCM (300) PVC (300) caustic soda (200) Plaquemine Louisiana 2018

Shell 1500 HDPELLDPE (550 x2) HDPE (500) Monaca Pennsylvania Early 2020s

9 new crackers = 108m tonnesyearThrough 20182019 = 93m tonnesyear

wwwiciscom 37

Expansions of existing US crackers plus 1 restart

Company Capacity (ktyear) Location StatusStart-Up

Dow Chemical 250 Plaquemine Louisiana Started up NovDec 2016

LyondellBasell 363 Corpus Christi Texas Completed Jan 2017 but op issues End Q2 expected

Westlake Chemical 32 Calvert City Kentucky H1 2017

Indorama (restart) 370 Lake Charles Louisiana End 2017

LyondellBasell 250 Channelview Texas Evaluating for 2020s

Expansions about 1m tonnesyear + new crackers 93m = 103m or 36 of existing US capacity by 20182019

wwwiciscom 38

North America PE expansions


Dow Chemical 750 ELITE PE (400kt) LDPE (350kt) Freeport Texas Mid-2017 (mech complete Q1)

Chevron Phillips Chemical 1000 Bimodal HDPE (500kt) mLLDPE (500kt) Sweeny Texas Mid-2017

ExxonMobil Chemical 1300 mLLDPE plus LLDPE (2 x 650kt) Mont Belvieu Texas End 2017

INEOSSasol 470 HDPE LaPorte Texas Q4 2017

Formosa Plastics 1150 PE unspec (525kt) LDPE (6255kt) Point Comfort Texas H2 2018

Sasol 890 LLDPE (470kt) LDPE (420kt) Lake Charles Louisiana H2 2018 (LLDPE) 2019 (LDPE)

LyondellBasell 500 HDPE LaPorte Texas Mid-2019

TotalBorealisNOVA 625 Borstar PE Bayport Texas End 2020

Shell 1600 HDPELLDPE (2x 550kt) HDPE (500kt) Monaca Pennsylvania Early 2020s

PTT Global Chemicals 700 HDPE (2x 350kt) Belmont County Ohio 2021

NOVA Chemicals 450 LLDPE Sarnia Canada 2022

SABICExxonMobil NA PE unspec (2 units) US Gulf Coast NA

Through 2019 = 61m tonnesyearThrough 2022 = 107m tonnesyearNo FID yet

Assuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobilstart-up by 2022

wwwiciscom 39

Global integrated PE margins 2000-2017

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

US - Contract Margin Ethane Feed Europe - Contract Margin Naphtha Feed

NE Asia - Spot Margin Naphtha Feed

$tonneUS shale gas advantage -Build baby build

wwwiciscom 40

The US 2nd wave ndash visibility clearing

Company Capacity (ktyear)

Downstream (ktyear) Location Start-up Status

TotalBorealisNOVA 1000 Borstar PE (625) +

existing PE (400) Port Arthur Texas End 2020 FID end 2017

Shell 1500 HDPELLDPE (2x 550) HDPE (500)

Monaca Pennsylvania Early 2020s Construction late

2017

SABICExxonMobil 1800 PE (2 units) MEG Corpus Christi

Texas ---

PTT GlobalChemicals 1000 HDPE (700) MEG

(500) EO (100)Belmont County

Ohio 2021 EvaluatingFID Q4 2017

Formosa Plastics 1200 LDPE HDPE EG Louisiana --- Evaluating

OdebrechtBraskem 1050 PE (3 units) Wood County

West Virginia --- On hold

wwwiciscom 41

Massive delays in China CTOMTO based PE capacityCompany Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start-up

Zhongtian Hechuang Energy Inner Mongolia CTO LDPE 250 120 2017

Shenhua Ningxia Ningxia CTO HDPELLDPE 430 2017

Jiangsu Sailboat Jiangsu MTO LDPE 150 2017

Zhongrsquoan Lianhe Coal Chemical Anhui CTO HDPELLDPE 350 2018

Shanxi Coking Shanxi CTO HDPELLDPE 300 2019

Qinghai Mining Qinghai CTO HDPELLDPE 300 After 2020

Jiutai Energy Inner Mongolia CTO HDPELLDPE 250 After 2020

Yanrsquoan Energy and Petrochemical Shaanxi CTO HDPELLDPE 450 After 2020

Sinopec Guizhou Guizhou CTO LLDPE 300 After 2020

China Power Investment Corp Inner Mongolia CTO HDPELLDPE 300 After 2020

Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Shaanxi CTO HDPELLDPE 300 After 2020

Huahong Hongjin Coal Chemical Gansu CTO HDPELLDPE 200 After 2020

Qinghai Damei Coal Industry Qinghai CTO HDPELLDPE 300 2021

15m tonnes added in 20152016 Potential 21m tonnes in 2017 but now lt1m tonnes expectedVery little in 2018 2019 many delayed to after 2020


M tonnes

17

POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow

07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03


North America Exports 2020 vs 2015 lsquo000 tonnes

Northeast Asia +1280

Asia amp Pacific +827

SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43

US projects ndash propylene polypropylene (PP)

wwwiciscom 44

North America on-purpose propylene projects (PDH)

Company Capacity ktyear Location Start-up Status

Enterprise Products 750 Mont Belvieu Texas Q3 2017 Under construction

Formosa Plastics 725 Point Comfort Texas 2020-2021 Under construction (delayed)

Inter Pipeline --- Alberta Canada 2021 FID mid-2017

Ascend Performance Materials

1000 Chocolate Bayou Texas --- On hold likely cancelled

BASF (MTP) 475 Freeport Texas --- On hold

Sunoco --- Pennsylvania Cancelled Cancelled

Dow Chemical --- US Cancelled Cancelled

Enterprise Products --- Texas US Cancelled Cancelled

REXtac 300 Odessa Texas Cancelled CancelledMany announced most cancelled or on hold

wwwiciscom 45

US propylenepropane spread narrower and volatile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7

Spread Polymer grade propylene spot US Gulf Propane FOB Mt Belvieu

Propylene

Centslb propylene propane Centslb spread

Propane

PDH looked like a good idea here

wwwiciscom 46

US PPpropylene spread shrinks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M

ay-201401-Jun-201401-Jul-201401-Aug-201401-Sep-201401-O

ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017

Spread PP homopolymer injection contract DEL Polymer grade propylene contract DEL

PPProducers expand margins onmonomer-plus contracts

Centslb PP propylene Centslb spread

Propylene

Import flood bringsmargins back

wwwiciscom 47

Wave of North American PP projects has not happened


REXtac 200 Odessa Texas 2017 Restarting 2 lines

Braskem 450 LaPorte Texas --- Evaluating FID 2017

Formosa Plastics 350 Point Comfort Texas --- Evaluating

ExxonMobil --- US --- Evaluating

PembinaPIC(Kuwait) --- Alberta Canada 2021 Evaluating

LyondellBasell 159 US --- Evaluating


ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49

Polyolefins segment EBITDA margins (USUS asset heavy)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017

LyondellBasellLyondell

Dow

Westlake

Dow ndash more intlexposure

NOTES LyondellBasells segment is Olefins amp Polyolefins - Americas from 2010 onwards No data available from Q4 2007 to Q4 2009 when LyondellBasell was private Prior results are those of Lyondell Chemicals Ethylene Co-products amp Derivatives (ECampD) segment From Nov 2004 onwards ECampD included acetyls from Millennium deal Q2 2004 and prior Equistar results for LyondellDows segment is Performance Plastics from Q4 2010 onwards Prior to that it is Dows Basic Plastics segment From Q1 2008 and prior no EBITDA data for Basic Plastics is availableWestlakes segment is Olefins and EBITDA has been calculated from income from operations + DampA The flat lines for 2005 and 2006 represent FULL YEAR margins as quarterly data is unavailable

Margins coming off highsbut still strong

Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50

What could go right for the ethylenePE cycle

Delays in new US cracker and derivative start-upsChevron Phillips Chemical cracker slightly delayed to Q4 2017 Others2nd wave of US crackers ndash weaker than the 1st more spread out

China CTOMTO project delays and cancellations

Oil price is critical to maintaingrow US feedstock advantageOPEC cutsMulti-year CAPEX cuts by major oil producersCan US natural gas and NGL prices stay low

Economic accelerationUS Europe showing stronger manufacturing activity China also in expansion mode

wwwiciscom 51

Dow sees lsquoplateaursquo in ethylenePE cycle - NO trough

wwwiciscom 52

US chemical company CEO comments on supplydemand

ldquoPE demand has been growing at a consistent rate of around 4-5 globally and we see that continuingrdquo hellip Any dip in PE operating rates would be modestrdquoldquoIn China the cancellation of many

CTO projects hellip will drive a much shallower downturn if anyrdquoldquoWhat distinguishes this cycle from the

ones in the past is that the US will have a feedstock advantage in a downturn Like the Middle East in the past wersquore going to run full outrdquo

US market ldquodriven by solid consumer demand and a resurgent manufacturing sectorhellip Europe continues its gradual recoveryhellip Chinarsquos transition to a consumption economyhellip is progressing on a stable pathhellip The rise of the middle class across developing Asia continues to drive strong demandhellip particularly in Southeast AsiardquoldquoMy direct exposure to the China

administration suggests that their [commitment] to emissions control is stronghellip They are slowing [CTOMTO] down quite a lotrdquo

Bob Patel LyondellBasell Andrew Liveris Dow

wwwiciscom 53

Global Manufacturing PMI

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China

US Europe accelerationEXPANSION

CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54

Regional IPEXs vs Brent crude oil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16

US IPEX Europe IPEX Asia IPEX Brent crude oil

IPEX Brent oil$bbl

Recent fly-updecoupled from crude

wwwiciscom 55

Global energy majors CAPEX ndash declines on top of declines

-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56

OPEC canrsquot kill even marginal US shale producers

Some US oil and gas company bankruptcies big cuts in CAPEXBUT hellip theyrsquore back US bankruptcy code allows for companies to wipe out or

significantly reduce debt issue new stock new debt CAPEX back to 2015 levels

Company Type Old debt New debt CAPEX plan 2017

Ultra Petroleum Shale gas oil $38bn $0 (net cash) $500m

Linn Energy Shale gas oil $53bn $10bn $395m

SandRidge Energy Shale gas oil $30bn $0 (net cash) $210-220m

Halcon Resources Shale oil gas $29bn $10bn $315m

Midstates Petroleum Shale gas oil $19bn $43m $90-140m

Goodrich Petroleum Shale gas oil $12bn $21m $40-50m

Energy XXI Offshore oil gas $27bn $0 (net cash) $140-170m

Source BarronrsquosCompaniesNOTE Old and newdebt on a net basisnew debt uponemergence frombankruptcy

wwwiciscom 57

Implications for global petrochemical trade

Trump impact on tradeTax reform deregulation infrastructure spending All positive for the US chemical industryRisks Trade war with China Mexico Canada EU triggered by tariffs border tax

Unprecedented US ethylene and PE expansion ndash can they export it all and at what impactRelatively healthy global manufacturing economiesAsia the main destination for US exports ndash then South America Europe Africa

Crude oilHigher crude would be POSITIVE for US producers that use NGL feedstock helping them

take global market share (run flat out) That could help mitigate a BUST scenario in the cycleCrude collapse amid huge PE supply wave would hit US producer margins hard

Your one-stop view of the chemicals market ICIS Dashboard

Look back and think ahead with complete visibility on pricing

bull Latest spot and contract pricesbull Historical pricing databull 12-month rolling price forecasts

Regional supply and demand

View regional importexport volumes net trades total consumption and capacity and production with producersrsquo data per country Forecasts are provided up to 11 years

Market news price alerts and updates

bull Real-time breaking newsbull Plant turnaround and

production data

Real-time supply and demand data for China

View live supply and demand data on Chinarsquos chemicals with real-time forecast updates on production imports consumption by demand segments as well as net balance

A faster more effective way to access market information

bull Excel Plug-inbull APIbull Market and Price Alertsbull Formula Builderbull Mobile Web App

NEW

ICIS APIC 2017 Booklet Ads_27Apr02indd 2ICIS APIC 2017 Booklet Ads_27Apr02indd 2 27417 642 pm27417 642 pm


wwwiciscom 58

China at a turning point The impact of economic reforms on the Asian and global economies

John RichardsonICIS Senior Consultant Asia

wwwiciscom 59wwwiciscom 59

Chinarsquos surge in lending since 2009

1 The scale of the problem 2 Impact on petchems self-

sufficiency3 Last year debt took off

again but another credit tightening cycle on the way What this means for the global economy oil markets and petchems

Managing long-term reforms in a world of political uncertainty The increased importance of One Belt One Road

What Wersquoll Discuss

wwwiciscom 60

Chinarsquos Surge In Lending The Scale Of The Problem


Global context China lending dwarfs all other lending


Q1 2017 lending (Total Social Financing) averaged Yuan 24 trnmonth 22 times the Q1 2008 monthly averageFirst quarter

monthly auto sales at 19m This was twice the monthly average in Q1 2008

The impact of the debt bubble on consumption

wwwiciscom 63

ldquoBut there is nothing to worry about because China is becoming middle classrdquohellip

hellipannual disposable income for city-dwellers averaged just $5061 last year whilst in rural areas it averaged only $1861You really donrsquot buy many homes or cars with that level of income unless a major lending bubble happens


Fitch warns that capital shortfalls to meet Chinarsquos debt are at 11-20 of GDP with the potential for this to increase to 33 in the worst-case scenario by the end of 2018In Britain and the US the

direct costs of bank rescues reached approximately 8 of each countryrsquos GDP after the Global Financial CrisisLower global growth since

2008 has made it harder for China to grow its way out of debts

A lot to worry about This is a global systemic risk

Source New York Times Policeman tries to restrain prospective home buyers in Shanghai

wwwiciscom 65

Effect on petrochemicals self-sufficiency

wwwiciscom 66

New and so world-scale plants are unlikely to shut down They could instead be run harder in the event of an economic downturn

China Customs department

59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es

Chinarsquos PTA imports minus exports

419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es

Chinas PVC imports minus exports

wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base case Chinas PE capacity versus consumption

Capacity in 000 tonnesyear Consumption in 000 tonnes Capacity as a of consumption


A big remaining opportunity but which countries and regions will win

wwwiciscom 68

More routes to propylene-PP than ethylene-PE Rapid growth in Chinese refinery capacity PDH and coal-to-olefins


68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Base case Chinas PP capacity versus consumption

Capacity in 000 tonnesyear Consumption in 000 tonnes Capacity as of consumption

One Scenario PP disappears as an import opportunity

wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70

Measuring the rise and fall of lendinghellipChina increased lending by $10 trillion in 2009 when its nominal GDP was only $5 trillion Growth in lending slowed in 2014 which was one of the factors behind the decline in global oil prices from around September of that year Commodities prices in general slid on slowdown in the Chinese economy Lending was down by $4 trillion by 2015Last year China once again took the controls off its financial system resulting in a renewed surge in credit growth This boosted commodities prices and the global economyAnother credit slowdown is taking place

wwwiciscom 71

Our Scenarios for China in 2017-2018

Property bubble and bad debt build-up continue Growth slows a little but Xi announces that reform will move forward from 2018

Stimulus and yet-again delayed reforms

Find out more at iciscomicis-iec-study

Economic downturn as the bubble deflatesThe Chinese government sharply reduces lending Meanwhile trade tensions build as the ldquoWar of Wordsrdquo escalates

Global Trade WarReform process becomes irrelevant as investors panic over Chinarsquos bad debts and the trade war with the US Military tensions rise

wwwiciscom 72

Effect on the global economy oil markets and petchems


Impact on global economy of latest China lending surgeThe economy at the

epicentre of the most significant growth impulse for the global economy has actually been China Its import volumes rose by just under 15 over the last 12 months providing a solid boost to global growth By comparison US import volumes grew by 35 while Europersquos were nearly flat over the same period

UBS ndash April 2017 report


In January-February TSF growth was lower year-on-yearMarch was a more mixed

picture Lending via state-owned banks lower than previous month and outstanding bank loans to corporations lowest monthly growth since March 2004 But TSF was much higher

than in February ndash and Q1 TSF was 125 greater than in the first quarter of last year The explanation was a surge in short-term loans to households via the shadow lenders

Signs that Xi is following through on his commitment

Sources Caixin and IMF

000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI Iron ore price CFR Tianjin


Entrusted investments a source of $17 trillion of financing are drying up thanks to new regulatory guidelinesAny official who steps out of

line with the reforms risks being investigated as part of the long running anti-corruption campaignLast yearrsquos re-inflation of the

lending bubble led to decline in real interest rates from 10 to minus 3 Real rates have spiked back up to 34

Further signs of the slowdown

Source httpswwwainsliebullioncomau


Slower credit growth linked with pollution clean-up

Air quality made worse by last yearrsquos credit bubble because of rising steel and aluminiumproduction etcldquoEasy winrdquo for the

govt this year is cleaning-up the airFactory closures

project cancellations taking placeBiggest-ever

programme of environmental inspections

Beijing smog Source Wikipedia


Economy will slow down this year as credit availability declinesChina wants to protect

foreign reserves and the value of the yuanFlat domestic local

gasoline and diesel marketsNew regulations on

teapot or independent refineries

Chinarsquos oil imports and the global oil price

142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes

Sources National Bureau of Statistics and ICIS China

Chinarsquos crude imports

wwwiciscom 78

Effect on polypropylene of latest credit cycleInventories of unsold autos in February were 66 higher year-on-year and were

second-highest on record Q1 auto sales down by 17

ICIS Supply amp Demand DatabaseChina Customs dept and ICIS China

-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es

Chinas real PP consumption growth 2008-2018

Consumption Percentage growth4600000

4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es

Apparent PP Demand Growth In China18 higher

wwwiciscom 79

The impact on polyethylene


1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es

Chinarsquos real PE consumption growth 2008-2018

Consumption Percentage growth

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es

Chinas apparent demand for PE

17 higher

wwwiciscom 80

And the big issue from mid-2017 is increased US export exposure

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE

Capacity in 000 tonnesyear Production in 000 tonnes

Consumption in 000 tonnes Surplus in 000 tonnes

US LLDPE capacity to rise by 78 between 2016-2020 with local demand up by just 8China by far the most important export marketBut last year total US PE net exports to China were at 460000 tonnes down from 1m

tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es

LLDPE Deficit countries and regions

Europe South amp Central America Africa China

wwwiciscom 81

Chinarsquos long term economic reforms and the OBOR

wwwiciscom 82

China thought it had more time to make this multi-generational project workBut risk of losing US exports markets has made the project more urgentIt has also created major geopolitical and economic opportunity for China to replace the US

In its largest definition OBOR would include 65 countries 44 billion people and about 40 of global GDP ndash the World Bank

wwwiciscom 83

Consumption Capacity

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020

One Belt One Road region Global total

78

77

Consumption Allocated Capacity

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020

One Belt One Road region Global Total

58 57

LLDPE capacity allocated from HDPELLDPE swing plants


What exclusion from OBOR could look like

wwwiciscom 84

One Belt One Road ndash objectives part 1

Escaping the ldquomiddle income traprdquo in eastern and southern coastal ChinaEasier routes to markets for Chinese higher-value exportsAccess to overseas technologies to upgrade manufacturing


Moving lower-value manufacturing inland where income levels are much lowerShifting lower-

value manufacturing to neighbouring poorer countriesGetting hold of

cheap and plentiful supplies of oil and gas

OBOR objectives part 2

wwwiciscom 86

How this could work in the polyester value chain

China imports oil from a One Belt One Road partnerIt helps develop this

partnerrsquos petchemsbusinessChina imports mono-

ethylene glycol to boost its polyester businessIt then re-exports

polyester fibreUncompetitive clothing

factories relocated from China to the trading partner thus helping to tackle unemployment


-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA

SOUTH ampCENTRALAMERICA

EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST

NORTHEAST ASIAEX-CHINA

CHINA ASIA ANDPACIFIC

000

tonn

es

Ethylene glycols in 2017

Capacity in 000 tonnesyear Production In 000 tonnes Consumption in 000 tonnes

wwwiciscom 87

China focuses on basic needs

87

Asia needs US$8 trillion of investment in the decade to 2020 to deal with its infrastructure deficit As countries with urban populations expand demand for transport logistics and utilities will place a major burden on public fundsLack of electricity generating capacity

means that the whole of sub-Saharan Africa with a population of 910 million consumes only 145 terawatt hours of electricity a yearmdashless than the 48 million people who live in the state of Alabama Poor households are buying lighting at

the equivalent of $100 per kilowatt hour more than a hundred times the amount people in rich countries pay

NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15

PVC Consumption in 2017 (global total 49m tonnes)


wwwiciscom 88

Conclusion Political uncertainty will continue to dominateWe have entered a period of

exceptional political uncertainty and this is unlikely to changeThis is making Chinarsquos economic

reforms which centre on dealing with its debt bubble even harder to achieveShort term it is only a question of

when rather than if China slows down again Last time this happened this was a major factor behind lower oil prices and lower global economic growthThe long term reform drive is

about creating the worldrsquos biggest-ever trading block This could radically reshape global petrochemicals trade flows

The newest addition to our suite of chemical analytics tools the live supply and demand data on Chinarsquos chemicals provides information on local stock availability real-time forecast updates based on current supply and consumption by applications and automatically calculates the net balance

Total supply ndash calculated in real-time and includes local output planned and unplanned shutdowns incoming supply cargo arrivals and delays

Total consumption ndash includes forecasts of consumersrsquo production levels and feedstock requirements

Monthly inventory ndash available for specifi c commodities to gauge import demand appetite

Supply interruption details ndash includes the source company details causes and impact on supply loss

Supply and demand forecast (for one month ahead) that aggregates real-time data and instantly shows the balance

Downloadable raw data that allows you to integrate this data into your own forecast model

Commodities covered Polypropylene Polyethylene

Propylene Styrene

Real-time China Supply and Demand Data

na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy

Contributions from COP21 not enough to achieve ~2 degC



Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10

European refiners are increasingly pressuredhellip



Chinarsquos over-investment extends to refining

Slide Number 15



Diverging trends will accelerate over time

Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20

Asian cost comparisons imported ethane vs traditional naphtha

US propane will remain long flows to international markets rapidly increasing

Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions













Massive delays in China CTOMTO based PE capacity







Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next

Measuring the rise and fall of lendinghellip

Slide Number 71


Impact on global economy of latest China lending surge





Effect on polypropylene of latest credit cycle




Slide Number 82






Conclusion Political uncertainty will continue to dominate

Powered by Data Driven by Insight

Withstand market volatility with deep insight and tools to help you plan

Pricing reports Benchmark prices (spot or contract) including market commentaries on the latest deals transactions and price drivers

Real-time News24-hour global coverage of chemicals news including updates on plant capacities output and shutdowns keeping you informed of market developments as they happen

Price forecastsMonthly forecasts for selected commodities showing a 12-month rolling price forecast trade balances and market sentiment

Supply and Demand Data- Global Supply and Demand Database with forecasts up to 2030- China supply and demand data - 1 month real-time forecasts

Consulting Service Tailored solutions based on your unique business needs ndash from research and due diligence to investment analysisand portfolio optimisation

Navigate through price uncertainty with ICIS pricing data and market intelligence


Petrochemical Scenario Studies A series of special reports that will equip you with the critical knowledge to survive and prosper in todays chaotic petrochemical markets

Enquire about ICIS Products amp Services

wwwiciscom 2



wwwiciscom 3

Energy

wwwiciscom 4

15

20

25

30

35

40


1990

2000

2010

2014-2016

2020

2030

2020 2030








INDC


GAP

wwwiciscom 5


0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



-50

0

50

100

150








wwwiciscom 6





Steam-Cracking







wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 2



wwwiciscom 3

Energy

wwwiciscom 4

15

20

25

30

35

40


1990

2000

2010

2014-2016

2020

2030

2020 2030








INDC


GAP

wwwiciscom 5


0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



-50

0

50

100

150








wwwiciscom 6





Steam-Cracking







wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 3

Energy

wwwiciscom 4

15

20

25

30

35

40


1990

2000

2010

2014-2016

2020

2030

2020 2030








INDC


GAP

wwwiciscom 5


0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



-50

0

50

100

150








wwwiciscom 6





Steam-Cracking







wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 4

15

20

25

30

35

40


1990

2000

2010

2014-2016

2020

2030

2020 2030








INDC


GAP

wwwiciscom 5


0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



-50

0

50

100

150








wwwiciscom 6





Steam-Cracking







wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 5


0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030



-50

0

50

100

150








wwwiciscom 6





Steam-Cracking







wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 6





Steam-Cracking







wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 7

Refining

wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 8


-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



More from China





wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 9


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025




wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 10



NAM

(160)

LAM

(145)

EU

FUSSR

JAP

SING

88

Australia

24

Rest of NEA

(192)

05

(47)

568

AF

MEINDIA

162

(135)

28

13

21

44

18

73

55

25

25

80

20

25

15

16

10

20

1010

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(298)

20

30

200

13

16

15

CHINA

69

76

SKOREA83

15





024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82










024681012141618

0

50

100

150

200

250

300MT



-127

-93

547

-142

-443

-600 -400 -200 00 200 400 600

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils






0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82










0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION VEHICLES




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025








0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82










0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE



-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MILLION TONNE







0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82










0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160MT



-125

-67

57

89

54

-150 -100 -50 00 50 100

LPG

Naphtha(net)

Gasoline

Kerosenes

Gas Oils



wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 15


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82












76

LAM SING(422)

EU

(38)

32

95

96

480

29

137

88

680FUSSR

AF

13

ME14 INDIA

31

10

48

3852

to China

47 08

16

11

87

65 34

12

186

Australia(11)

SKOREA (41)

JAP

(22))

Rest of SAP amp

Indonesia

(02)

50

50

Rest of NEA(74)

197

182

NAM51

21

CHINA(50)

50

wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 17





41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82










41

31

44

33

4

00 10 20 30 40 50

Polyolefins

Key Elastomers


Other Key Plastics

TOTAL



07

09

19

22

13

00 10 20 30 40 50

COAL

OIL

NATURAL GAS

NON FOSSIL

TOTAL


wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 19

EthaneLPG

Naphtha

+ FCCRCC




685

35918 195

113406

2 235

129 791


Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

2015 2020 2025

Polyolefins

KeyElastom

PolyEstamp Uret

OtherPlastics

Light NGLs



wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 20


Light NGLs


99

8396 54

20

35

22



US Phase1

US Phase2

US Export

Rest ofWorld

2015 2030

LPG toC2=

LPG toC3=

wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 21



wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 22


to Japan


to China










202

North America

34 -98

Europe 31


54

50Africa

32

227

Middle East

31Former USSR

-45

South Korea

-89

Japan14

48

-116China

71

-34

India

-45

34


34

33

12

22

wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 23

08

28

05

15

Middle East 407

84

Africa 86 Asia

(548)

F USSR185

L America(70)

22

16

3916

to Asiafrom NAM400

08

Europe(87)

13

04 05

40

88



wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 24






(60)

(45)

(30)

(15)

0

15

30

45

60

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

0

20

40

60

80

in m

illio

n to

nnes

in m

illio

n to

nnes








NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82









NORTH AMERICA6


3EUROPE

1

FORMER USSR16

AFRICA5

MIDDLE EAST No Iran

30

IRAN6

NORTH EAST ASIA

21

ASIA AND PACIFIC

12

2015 = 2938 mbd



AMERICA2

EUROPE1

FORMER USSR11

AFRICA3


24

NORTH EAST ASIA16

ASIA AND PACIFIC

11

Post 2020 = 4385 mbd



Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82









Future $60bbl Oil


wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 27

Conclusions

wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 28

Conclusions


















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82





















wwwiciscom 29



wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 30






REX

Shut

ters

tock

wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 31






Imag

inec

hina

REX

Shu

tter

stoc

k

wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 32


wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 33


$139850 $128624 $121362

-$102992 -$95225 -$93205

$36858 $33399 $28157

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

$m


2014 2015 2016


wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 34





-5000 0 5000 10000 15000

Germany

China

Japan

Singapore

Netherlands

South Korea

Canada

Brazil

Belgium

Mexico


wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 35


wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 36














wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 37









wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 38

















wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 39


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600




wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 40








2017


Texas ---







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 41

















M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82








M tonnes

17


07

39

12

27

65

03

Middle East 157

Europe40

Asia amp Pacific21

North East Asia97

SampC America24

Former USSR02

Africa30

North America58

2308

23

21

04

02

03

03





SampC America +402

Europe +269

wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 43


wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 44













wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 45


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8022

-Nov

-201

320

-Dec

-201

324

-Jan-

2014

21-F

eb-2

014

21-M

ar-2

014

18-A

pr-2

014

16-M

ay-2

014

13-Ju

n-20

1411

-Jul-2

014

08-A

ug-2

014

05-S

ep-2

014

03-O

ct-2

014

31-O

ct-2

014

28-N

ov-2

014

26-D

ec-2

014

30-Ja

n-20

1527

-Feb

-201

527

-Mar

-201

524

-Apr

-201

522

-May

-201

519

-Jun-

2015

17-Ju

l-201

514

-Aug

-201

511

-Sep

-201

509

-Oct

-201

506

-Nov

-201

504

-Dec

-201

508

-Jan-

2016

05-F

eb-2

016

04-M

ar-2

016

01-A

pr-2

016

29-A

pr-2

016

27-M

ay-2

016

24-Ju

n-20

1622

-Jul-2

016

19-A

ug-2

016

16-S

ep-2

016

14-O

ct-2

016

11-N

ov-2

016

09-D

ec-2

016

13-Ja

n-20

1710

-Feb

-201

710

-Mar

-201

707

-Apr

-201

7


Propylene


Propane


wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 46


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0102030405060708090

100

01-Dec-201301-Jan-201401-Feb-201401-M

ar-201401-Apr-201401-M


ct-201401-N

ov-201401-Dec-201401-Jan-201501-Feb-201501-M

ar-201501-Apr-201501-M


ct-201501-N

ov-201501-Dec-201501-Jan-201601-Feb-201601-M

ar-201601-Apr-201601-M


ct-201601-N

ov-201601-Dec-201601-Jan-201701-Feb-201701-M

ar-2017




Propylene


wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 47










ICIS estimate

wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 48

Macro factors

wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 49


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1

1998

Q3

1998

Q1

1999

Q3

1999

Q1

2000

Q3

2000

Q1

2001

Q3

2001

Q1

2002

Q3

2002

Q1

2003

Q3

2003

Q1

2004

Q3

2004

Q1

2005

Q3

2005

Q1

2006

Q3

2006

Q1

2007

Q3

2007

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017


Dow

Westlake




Last trough

Financial crisis

wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 50






wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 51


wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 52








wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 53


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65Ja

n-08

Jun-

08

Nov

-08

Apr-

09

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct

-11

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-

14

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Oct

-16

Mar

-17

US

Eurozone

China


CONTRACTION

wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 54


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

00Au

g-00

Mar

-01

Oct

-01

May

-02

Dec-

02Ju

l-03

Feb-

04Se

p-04

Apr-

05N

ov-0

5Ju

n-06

Jan-

07Au

g-07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09Ju

l-10

Feb-

11Se

p-11

Apr-

12N

ov-1

2Ju

n-13

Jan-

14Au

g-14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16


IPEX Brent oil$bbl


wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 55


-274-307

-367

-192-167

-412

-173-150

-381

-320

-148

-263

-378-341

-512

-128

-280-312

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

00

2015 vs 2014 2016 vs 2015

wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 56













wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 57













production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82














production data





NEW



wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 58










wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82














wwwiciscom 60








wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82













wwwiciscom 63









wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82













wwwiciscom 65


wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 66



59170166254769

66371106499669

5360734

2615986

700193

128293(193195) (25977)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


419234

1623982

1195187

843181730097

295982

(272528)

53568

(289515)

(8738)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 JAN-FEB 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 67

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 68



68 7078 82 86 88 85

93 98 92 92

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 69

What happens next

wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 70


wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 71







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 72












000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82

















000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

Iron

ore

$to

nne

Caix

in In

dex





















142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82


























142124

96

139

174

5573

40

95 88

136

50

0020406080100120140160180200

000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

imp growth

m tonnes



wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 78




-2

25

15

8 3 9

811

76

10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



4800000

5000000

5200000

5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 79



1

30

15 3

1 127 7 6 6

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

000

tonn

es



5400000

5600000

5800000

6000000

6200000

6400000

6600000

6800000

7000000

7200000

Q1 2016 Q1 2017

Tonn

es


17 higher

wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 80


500

1000

1500

2000

2500

-

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US LLDPE




tonnes in 2006

-

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 81


wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 82



wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 83


10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

000

tonn

es

PTA in 2020


78

77


5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

000

tonn

es

LLDPE in 2020


58 57




wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 84








wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82












wwwiciscom 86








-

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

NORTHAMERICA


EUROPE FORMERUSSR

AFRICA MIDDLEEAST



000

tonn

es



wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 87


87




NORTH AMERICA

13


5

EUROPE14

FORMER USSR3

AFRICA3

MIDDLE EAST4

NORTH EAST ASIA43

ASIA AND PACIFIC15



wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







wwwiciscom 88














Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82















Propylene Styrene


na Supply Data


Slide Number 1


Energy




Refining

Slide Number 8

Slide Number 9

Slide Number 10





Slide Number 15




Slide Number 19

Slide Number 20



Slide Number 23

Slide Number 24

Slide Number 25


Conclusions

Conclusions




















Macro factors


















Slide Number 66



What happens next


Slide Number 71











Slide Number 82







ICIS Consulting - Amazon S3€¦ · - China supply and demand data - 1 month real-time forecasts...

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Transcript of ICIS Consulting - Amazon S3€¦ · - China supply and demand data - 1 month real-time forecasts...