ICEWS - Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (Social Radar)

8/3/2019 ICEWS - Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (Social Radar)

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Headquarters U.S. Air Force

Science and Technology

Dr. Mark T. Maybury

Chief ScientistHeadquarters U.S. Air Force

Pentagon, Washington D.C.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 1

8 February 2011


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DoD Roles Demand

H m n D m in In i h

Center of gravity of irregular conflict isnon-combatant o ulations

Building partnership capacity and post-conflict recovery, reconstruction, and

Success in current and future

operations depends on understandingand shaping social and culturallandscape including patterns of life


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Center of Gravity:

Th L l P l

Having focused the overwhelming majority of its collection effortsCJ2 ISAF

intelligence apparatus is unable to answer fundamental questionsabout the environment in which U.S. and allied forces operate andthe people they seek to persuade. Ignorant oflocal economics and

landowners, hazy about who thepowerbrokersare and how theymight beinfluenced, incurious about the correlations between

variousdevelopment projects and the levels of cooperation among

villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to findanswers whetheraid workers or Afghan soldiers U.S.intelligence officers and analysts can do little but shrug in

- ,analysis, and information they need to wage a successfulcounterinsurgency.

. , , . , .

Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan.

3


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HSCB Modeling Program Supports

Achieving prosperity and freedom around the world requires sound

policy decisions and operations planning that support economic

models of human, social, and behavioral factors. Achieving peace and dignity requires addressing the challenges

such as corruption, violent extremism, and the nuclear threat whichrequires the comprehensive focus on training, operations planning,influence analysis, and experimentation across the spectrum of basic

research to fielded solutions. c ev ng a grea er coopera on an un ers an ng e ween

nations is supported by the cross cultural modeling, training, andoperations.

planet can be supported by hybrid models developed in the program

which could lead to more sophisticated models of human behavior(economic, social, behavioral) which could be leveraged with physicalterrain and weather models to yield more sophisticated globalwarming models.

4


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National Security Alignment

HSCB Modeling Program aligns with priorities to addressemerging challenges in key NSS, QDR, and QDDR areas:

en er or ra eg c oun er error sm ommun ca ons

Succeed in counterinsurgency, stability, andcounterterrorism operations

Increase counterinsurgency, stability operations, andcounterterrorism competency and capacity in general purpose

forces; Increase re ional ex ertise for Af hanistan and Pakistan and

Strengthen key supporting capabilities for strategic communication.

Build the security capacity of partner states

Enhance lin uistic re ional and cultural abilit

National Security Strategy (NSS) Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)

Quadrennial Diplomacy andDevelopment Review (QDDR)


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HSCB Modeling Program

Su orts Joint Needs Army Human Terrain System

Navy Expeditionary Combat Command S&T Strategic Plan

Multi-lingual and multi-dialect, real-time two way audio/reader translator

Civil Information Management for Civil Military Operations forMaritime Civil Affairs and Security Training (MCAST) Command

Influence and Effects Measurement Tools

Data collection in existing and emergent operational environments thatcaptures the operationally relevant socio-cultural information by non-subjectmatter experts

Naval Irregular Warfare Office R&D

Non lethal warn, deter, active denial

Expose enemy networks, anticipate and influence behavior Enhance cultural and human terrain capabilities (methods to better

understand partner perspectives and forge trust-based relationships)

ar ne orps s on ra egy

Posture for Hybrid Threats in Complex Environment

Lead Joint/Multinational Operations 6


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USAF Language and Culture Skills

Cultural understanding is extremely important to our abilityto affect positive outcomes. As we pursue our nationalinterests in an interconnected, globalized world, we must be

Air Force Chief of StaffGen. Norton Schwartz

cognizant not only of socio-economic and political

institutions; we must genuinely and increasingly appreciatelinguistic, regional, and cultural constructs. Gen Schwartz

designated an AF Service Core Function

Central to building partnerships and capacities is our ability to

DoD Language and Culture SummitJan. 26, 2011, Alexandria, VA

u u u , u wan ever-growing number of international partners.

Budgetary pressures drive further need for collaboration

Language-Enabled Airman Program (LEAP) attracts, recruits, develops460 linguistically capable, regionally savvy Airmen

AF proud of cultural modeling (e.g., NOEM) in support of OSD7Source: http://www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-110126-045.pdf


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A Wicked Problem

nment

Pluralistic

Little or no agreement as to

Fluid, Evolving,Contested

ingEnv

iro

objectives; decision makers

focus on local concerns

cis

ionMa

Agreementas to the goals andobjectives; decisions are,

UncontestedD

common goals

System BehaviorLinear Complex

Not all behavior directly observable; notall interactions are well understood

Do not necessarily follow predictable

Behavior is regular, well understoodand, to a large extent, predictable

Systems

Systems

Systems rules of behavior; solutions to specificproblems may have totally unexpectedconsequences

Interact wi th environment and evolve

Relatively closed to the environment

Components not purposeful; exist onlyas part of larger system

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Multiple stakeholders, Increasing complexity,

Greater uncertainty


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The Human Dimension

We cant kill our way to victory

,

Art. 68. Modern wars are not

internecine wars, in which the killing of

President Abraham Lincoln, 1863

The supreme art of war is to subduethe enemy without fighting.

9

Sun Tzu


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Long-Term Vision

Soldier as cultural chameleon,

Actionable estimation of 2nd and 3rd order effects

across the PMESII spectrum Reliable forecasting of regional

Routine exploitation of social media for

intelligence, understanding andengagemen , ra n ng, n o s ar ng ancollaboration

Ability to track and shape viral communication

across distributed dynamic social networks

Data, technologies, and methods support a,

High fidelity social radar PMESII = Political, Military, Economic, Social,Infrastructure and Information systems


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Social Radar

Sonar Radar

Infrared


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Social Radar

Humanitarian Relief

ns

Strategic Communication Counter Insurgency

HealthPolitical EconomicReligiousMilitary

60

70

80

90

ency

1000

1200

1400Aum ShinrykioMis

si

Collaborative Anal sis/Assessment

0

10

20

30

40

50

Supreme

Initiation

(1988)

Reality ofthe

Universe

(1991)

Declaring

MyselfChrist

(1992)

Salvation of

True Victors

(1992)

Teachingsof

the Truth

(1992)

Beyond Life

and Death

(1993)

Bodhisattva

Suttra(1994)

Disaster

Approaches

(1995)

W

ordFrequ

0

200

400

600

800

A N GER FU TUR E

ho

ds

Words Groups

op cs

Tools

Me . en men na ys s

F. SummarizationG. ModelingH. Geotemporal Visualization

A. Sampling/CalibrationB. Topic Detect/TrackC. Author AttributionD. Conversation Analysis

es

GeographyDemographyEconometrics

Newspapers, Radio, TVS

our

SurveillancePolls


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Social Radar:

Military

& Law

Political Economic Social Health Environment

Indicators Violent/Border

Quality of

governance

GDP Displacement Medical Access Water/Air/Soil

pollutionon c

Criminal

Activity

Corruption Employment,

Poverty

Education Quality Medical

Outcomes

Climate

Human rights Balance ofpowers

Infrastructure Hunger,Dissatisfaction

Mortality/Disability

Natural disaster

Signatures Violentincidents

Electoral fraud Currencystability

% homeless, %refugees

Care Access,% Insured

CO2, Smog, waterquality

Public safety Trafficking,laundering

Consumerprices

% Graduates,Literacy rates

Absenteeism Temperature,precipitation

Grievances Public Trust,Free media

Land Rightsgrievances

Grievances AIDS, Birth/ Mortality rates

EmergencyPreparedness

Sources UN reports UN reports World Bank UN, NGOs UN, NGOs satellites

Polls World Bank,

HumanRightsWatch

SARs, DEA

Reports

Newswire World Health

Organization

World Health

Organization

Newswire Pew/Gallup Bloomberg Social Media ProMED EnvironmentalNGOs

Maybury, M. 2010. Social Radar. First International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics

(AHFE) and Cross-Cultural Decision Making, 17-20 July, Intercontinental, Miami, FL


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Notional Social Radar Desktop

Distribution

of articlesby topic

Topiccovera eover time

Highlightedsentiment-bearingphrases in adocument

Heat Mapof sentiment

targets


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Technologies, Methods, Models, and

Data & Theory

Building

Model &

Software

Development

Model Building

Resources &

V&V

Integration &

Systems

Development

Training &

Mission

Rehearsal

Operatio nal Use

& Transition

Socio-Cultural Modeling o f Effective Inf luence (AFRL)

Cascading Effects Modeling (AFRL)

AFRL: AIR FORCE

RESEARCH LAB; ARI:

ARMY RESEARCH

INSTITUTE;

COCOMS: US

COMBATANT

Collective Behavior and Socio-Cultural Modeling (AFRL)

Predicting Adversary Behavior (AFRL)

HSCB Basic and Applied Research (ARI)Effects Measurement and Geospatial S ervices (USACE)

Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (USMC)

Program Manager Training Syst ems (USMC)

ARMED

SERVICE COMMANDS; DARPA:

DEFENSE

ADVANCED

RESEARCH

PROJECTS AGENCY;

DIA: DEFENSE

INTELLIGENCE

AGENCY; DTRA:or a e uman e av o r o e ng

ONR HSCB Scienc e (ONR)

Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (DDR&E)

Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (DDR&E)

Strategic Multilayer Analysis (DDR&E)

Minerva Research In itiativ e (OSD)

DEFENSE THREAT

REDUCTION

AGENCY; IARPA:

INTELLIGENCE

ADVANCE

RESEARCH

PROJECTS AGENCY;

JIEDDO: JOINT

Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (OSD)

Int egrated Crisis Early Warning Sys tem (DARPA)

Applications of Social Computing (DARPA)

Strategic Co mmunicatio n Assessment & Analysis (DARPA)

Conflict Modeling, Planning & Outcomes Experimentation (DARPA)

Socio-Cultural D namics Init iative DIA

OS

IMPROVISED

EXPLOSIVE DEVICES

DEFEAT

ORGANIZATION;

NSF: NATIONAL

SCIENCE

FOUNDATION; ONR:

OFFICE OF NAVAL

Behavioral/Soci al Sciences Research Program (DIA)Social-Science Research for Anticipation & Reduction of WMD (DTRA)

ATHENA (TRISA)

Human Terrain System (TRADOC)

Soci al Dynamics Awareness (JIEDDO)

Soci o-Cult ural Behavior R&D (COCOMs)

OTHER

DoD

RESEARCH;

TRADOC: TRAININGAND DOCTRINE

COMMAND; TRISA:

TRADOC

INTELLIGENCE

SUPPORT ACTIVITY;

USACE: ARMY

Social/Behavioral Dimensions o f S ecurity, Conflict, Cooperation (NSF)

Socio-Cultural Content in L anguage (IARPA)

Reynard (IARPA)OTHER

CORPS OF

ENGINEERS; USDI:

UNDER SECRETARY

OF DEFENSE FOR

INTELLIGENCE


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Sample Tools and Methods

Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM)

Framework (ICAF)

Senturion

National Operational Environment Model

(NOEM)

Integrated Crisis Early Warning System(ICEWS)

MAP-HT Joint Capability TechnologyDemonstration

Environments (MPICE)


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Sample HSCB Program Efforts

Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG and NGO

Semantic Wiki for Complex Ops (Milcord)

, ,and Social Strife Model (NSI, Inc)

Simulation of Opium Economies (Los Alamos)

Modeling Strategic Contexts (Univ Chicago)


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The Technical Cooperation Program

TTCP Ad Hoc Stud Grou Survey of national Comprehensive Approach (CA) development and

associated S&T programs

Baseline Collection Instrument - AUS, CAN, UK, US (& NATO)

National Understanding of CA;

Experience in implementation of a CA;

ssessment an measurement w t n t e context o t e ;

Ongoing S&T programs and tools to support, enable or evaluate a CA;

Projected Scientific and Technical Activities supporting the CA; and,.

TTCP S&T Program review

Relevance assessment of existing TTCP activities

Assessment of S&T areas (thrusts) to support a CA

Analysis supported by

National workshops, subject matter experts, AHSG meetings /teleconferences, literature search, interviews, etc.


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Science & Technology

Areas of O ortunit Multi-agency modeling, simulation, and experimentation to develop a

CA operational concept (e.g. MNE 4, 5, 6)

Tools, methods and techniques to support force synchronization

Models and other tools for determining optimal multi-agency

capabilities (e.g. PSOM)

Development of organizational cultures and individual KSAs that

support a CA to operations

, ,emergent and directed behaviour in CA networks

Development of MOEs, and tools for assessing outcomes

Methods to integrate and make sense of non-traditional data, andgenerally build domain intelligence to support a CA

Decision support/COA analysis tools that leverage validated, socialscience-based models of socio-cultural behavior in regions of interest

PSOM = Peace Support Operations Model MNE = Multinational ExperimentsKSA = Knowledge, Skill, and Ability MOE = Measures of Effectiveness COA = Course of Action


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Persistent Modeling Challenges

A more complete basic research foundation grounded ininter-disciplinary social science

y r mo e s n egra ng eren mo e ng

approaches, theories and granularity Transparency in models and tools

application to socio-cultural behavior models

Interfaces enabling use of models acrossmilitar domains, environments, echelon levels

Processes, procedures and training to ensure appropriate useof models in support of robust decision making

Policies, procedures, information systems, and requisite

training to sustain HSCB modeling usage Methods for valid collection of quality socio-cultural data and

systems in which that data can be readily accessed for use in

Working with the warfighterprovides clarity and specificity to these challenges


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Some Air Force Contributions

Metropolitan Area Persistent Sensing

Multi-INT Collection

Multi-scale modeling and analysis Project Liberty MC-12 (IMINT, SIGINT)

Very high precision, micro munitions that limit collateral damage

Non lethal directed energy weapons

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmuyLIrSjxIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpjxjLRKqw8&feature=related

Active Denial System


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AFRL Social-Cultural (SC)

Modelin Trends

lexity/

iative

sComp

ix

edIni

Higher res cultural models

SC Integrated Model-based

Relative

Absolute

odelS

egree

Fill Science, Data Gaps

analysis & planning tooldevelopment

Applied Research:

a ore app ca on omodels, methods:- COA Analysis- PSYOP Planning

- Precision InfluenceAnalysis and Tactics- Anticipatory ISR

1980 2010 20201990 2000

Low-res cultural models

- scourse na ys s

Adaptive Control of ThoughtRational (ACT-R)State, Operator And Result (SOAR)


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The National Operational

Envir nm n M l N EM Web-based M&S environment to:

The NOEM Model

instability

Identify leverage points & theirrelative sensitivities to stabilize aregion or nation

Forecast of potential ramifications

of Blue action(s) (include

& long term) on adversary andenvironment (local populace)

Explore Epsteins model based on

Collier and Hoeffler (2002) conceptof greed and grievance

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, . ,COMMANDS SUPPORTED: USSTRATCOM, AFRICOM, ACC

PARTNERS: AFRL/RH, AFOSR, ITT, CUBRC, EBR, JHU,U Alabama, U Buffalo, RIT, Patch Plus Consultants, UC Berkeley,


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Micro Munition Vision

-

Adaptable Kinetic Effects

Extremely Agile Urban Maneuver

Micro Munition Airframes

Autonomous coop. attack Difficult target access

Airspace deconfliction &

Focused kinetic effects for highlethality/low collateral damage

attack for element ofsurprise/minimal TOF for TST

Adverse Weather SeekerOperating in the Loop Munitions

arge exc us on zonecompliance/trust

Selectable effects (singlecovert attack ->synchronizedswarm attack)

of flight (TOF) forfleeting/fleeing Time SensitiveTargets (TST)

Adverse Weather Seeker

Control Target(s) identification andmunition(s) assignment

Target exclusion zone

Micro Modular MissionPayloads Micro kinetic effects, e.g.,

adversary/electronics defeat

24Cleared for Public Release:

96ABW-2009-0425Rapidly Deliver Scalable Kinetic Effects to Difficult Targets

Independently TargetedMunitions for selectable effects

Automated airspace

deconfliction

-and CBRN disruption/defeat

Ambient Energy Harvest


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Active Denial

Joint Non-Lethal Wea ons + AFRLDescription

An extended range non-lethal weapon that uses Directed EnergyDE not ro ectiles

System 1

Effect is produced by a 95GHz radio frequency in a highlydirectional beam that penetrates 1/64th inch deep of the skin surfaceof the target

System 2

Platform (System 2) operated by single operator and supervisorwith joystick control, bore-sighted day/night cameras, FLIR, throughsite video, and commanders station w/ wide view camera

Assists in preventing civilian casualties by providing anon-lethal capability with significant stand off range

Deny access of target areas from ranges up to and

Policy, LegalandArmsControlComplianceReviewsarecompleteandsystemisapprovedforuse StrategicCommunication planiscompleteandreadyforimplementation

Assists in determining intent in Escalation-of-Forcescenarios by forcibility dissuading targets from movingtowards friendly positions

Human effects very well understood after years of study and over11,000 engagements

Interoperablewithcurrentlyfieldedcommunicationssystems,jammersandcounterIEDdevices.

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System 2 (shown above) is mounted on HeavyExpanded Mobility Tactical Truck (HEMTT) with currentcounter IED and communications systems. Operatorstation and key system components armor protectedagainst small arms

Meetscommandersintentsinreducingciviliancasualtiesandprovidingescalationofforceoptions

www.kirtland.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070404-026.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmuyLIrSjxI


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Conclusion

War fighters require human domain insight

Require rich data and valid but intuitive models and decision aids

Service unique contributions can advance progress in current, . ., , -

INT persistent sensing, multi-scale modeling and analysis, highprecision, micro munitions, non lethal directed energy weapons

u ngua , mu mo a n orma on ex rac on romheterogeneous sources promises new opportunities for datacollection, model validation, and COA assessment

Development of social radar that exploit sentiment analysisand human terrain visualization can provide integrating metaphorfor enhanced SA and decision support

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ICEWS - Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (Social Radar)

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