ICES ASC Plenary lecture "Integrated science for integrated management: fairy tale or finally...
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Transcript of ICES ASC Plenary lecture "Integrated science for integrated management: fairy tale or finally...
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Integrated Ecosystem Science for
Integrated Ecosystem-based Management: Fairy tale
or Finally here?
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f a i r y t a l e
an engaging story that ultimately requires a sequence of far-fetched events
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Bocaccio Canary Rockfish
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Mea
n nu
mbe
r per
traw
l
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
5
10
15
20
Levin et al. (2006) Conservation Biology
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Redbanded Rockfish Pacific Ocean Perch
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mea
n n
umbe
r p
er
tra
wl
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
5
15
25
35
45Redbanded Rockfish Pacific Ocean Perch
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mea
n n
umbe
r p
er
tra
wl
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 20010
5
15
25
35
45
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that w a s t h e n
t h i s i s n o w
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Overfishing (unsustainable fishing mortality)
Overfished (biomass
below limit)Things are OK
California Current Groundfish
from Levin & Wells (2012)
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42% of assessed groundfish overfished
Then Now
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA)
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• NO– In general, this is good single-species management
– Sometimes, informed by emerging ecological knowledge
This success is the result of Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) and IEAs, right?
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In conclusionWe don’t need
Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
Questions?
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On the other handBy definition,
s u s t a i n a b l e fishing means k i l l i n g
lots of fish.
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Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems
Mean Trophic Level of Groundfish
probably caused by combination of recruitment variability and fishing
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Pi /Bi(Annual productionper unit biomass)
Diet composition
(1 – EE) • Pi /Bi(Annual production
lost as detritus)Detrituspreyl
Qi /Bi(Annual consumptionper unit biomass)
preyj
preyk
Yi(Annual productiontaken by fisheries)
Bi(Biomass of
functional group i)predatorz
predatorx
predatory
Annual production
taken by predators;
based on predator
diets, B, Q/B
Pi /Bi(Annual productionper unit biomass)
Diet composition
(1 – EE) • Pi /Bi(Annual production
lost as detritus)Detrituspreylpreyl
Qi /Bi(Annual consumptionper unit biomass)
preyjpreyj
preykpreyk
Yi(Annual productiontaken by fisheries)
Bi(Biomass of
functional group i)predatorzpredatorz
predatorxpredatorx
predatorypredatory
Annual production
taken by predators;
based on predator
diets, B, Q/B
What is the impact of shifting (groundfish) trophic level on ecosystem structure and function?
ecopath with ecosim
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ResponseSpecies group Instantaneous Dynamic (10 yr)
Phytoplankton small zooplankton
carnivorous zooplankton amphipods
krill jellies
pandalid shrimp crabs squid
forage fish salmon
lower TL groundfish albacore seabirds
harbor seals whales
Tolimieri , Samhouri, Levin (2014) Ecosystems
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Fishing can affect the ecosystem
Chorizo crusted cod
Biom
ass
in th
e w
ater
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Chorizo crusted cod
Biom
ass
in th
e w
ater
Gamba
s al a
jillo
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Chorizo crusted cod
Biom
ass
in th
e w
ater
Agric
ultu
re
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•Ecosystems provide a large number of goods and services
•These services interact, often in ways we don’t understand
•People place different values on different services
EBM Challenge
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What do we do? Where do we do it?
How much?
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Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
• Science for i n t e g r a t e d ocean & coastal management
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w h a t is a healthy ecosystem?
i s the ecosystem health?
n o w what do we do?
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What is a healthy
ecosystem?
SCOPING
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
Is the ecosystem healthy?ECOSYSTEM STATUS• INDICATORS AND REFERENCE POINTS
• RISK ASSESSMENT
Now what do we do?
SCENARIO ANALYSIS• Evaluate the likely tradeoffs associated with management alternatives
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What is an ecosystem (or species)?
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Scientists, fishers, divers“pile sort”
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100
80
60
40
20
0
Sim
ilarit
y
Salm
on
Oth
er
flatf
ish
Jelly
fish
Copp
erRe
dstr
ipe
Gre
enst
ripe
dPu
get S
ound
Oth
er
fora
ge
Seal
s
Crab
s
Hak
ePo
llock
Cabe
zon
Sabl
efish
Ratfi
shLi
ngco
dCo
dKe
lp,
Stag
Pile
per
chSt
riped
Rock
fish
B
Dog
fish
Orc
a
Sand
lanc
e
Dov
er,
Hal
ibut
Rock
fish
A Blac
k
structure of folk taxonomiesBeaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters
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Beaudreau, Levin, Norman . 2012. Conservation Letters
scientific taxonomy
folk taxonomies(including fish biologists, divers, fishers)
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eye
of the
beholderyear
1977 2010
inde
x of
abu
ndan
ce
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Adrian Stier et al. in prep
Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping (FCM) is a parameterized concept mapping where qualitative static models that are translated into semi-quantitative dynamic models.
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Adrian Stier et al. in prep
e
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Food web structure differs
Adrian Stier et al. in prep
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Adrian Stier et al. in prep
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people (even fisheries scientists) don’t
perceive the world the same way
this can causeconfusion,
conflict,
chaos
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If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
we have to make sure we all hear the same story
EBM
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ecosystem-based management targets
desired future state of the socio-ecological system
what is a ‘good’ environment?
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management targets are a societal choice
informed by science
but how?
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Ecological Relationships
Societal Preferences
Management Targets
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Ecological Relationships
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Eelgrass
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Puget Sound food web model• 66 functional groups (bacteria to orcas) from Central Puget Sound• 15 different fishery types• Direct connections are mainly predator-prey interactions• Strength of connections is a function of diets, consumption rates,
production rates and predator-prey functional responses
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems
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Effects of eelgrass change on mediated groups• Averaged across all mediation strength combinations (strong, moderate, weak)
• Wild, pink salmon groups most sensitive; effect carries to subadults
• Crab, hatchery salmon responses were intermediate
• Herring were least sensitive
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems
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Effects of eelgrass change on rest of food web
Harvey, Williams & Levin 2012 Ecosystems
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Societal Preferences
how much eelgrass do you want?
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Underwater (Marine Life)
Rural Growth
Urban Development
Shorelines
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Eelgrass
Ecosystem Services
Overwater structure
Sediment Loading
NutrientsShoreline Armor
Herring Crabs
BirdsKiller whales
Salmon
Costs Costs
Rehr, Williams, Tolimieri, Levin 2014 Coastal Management
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What is the effect of changes in human activities on eelgrass?
What is the effect of changing eelgrass on Puget Sound marine life?
What does this all cost?
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Rehr, Williams,, Levin 2014 Marine Policy
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-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%-2
-1
0
1
2
Change is eelgrass cover
Ave
rage
Des
irab
ility
Levin, Rehr, Norman, & Wiliams in prep
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-35% -25% -15% 0% 10% 25% 45%-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Change in eelgrass cover
Ave
rage
Des
irab
ility
DemocratsRepublicans
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• given the diverse costs and benefits of eelgrass restoration, Puget Sound citizens would like to see 10-20% more eelgrass
• normative orientation influences preferred restoration level, and
• policy makers will now have knowledge of how different constituents view restoration
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existential questions…• does this reduce the influence of science?• does this lead to less conservation?• is this raising a white flag of surrender?
or• is this the real world in a democracy?
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If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
we (scientists) can’t write the story alone
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Telling the EBM story
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Woe is me…
No data…no certainty…no money…no this…not that
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Ackoff, R. (1989) From data to wisdom. J. Appl Systems Analysis
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How do we get from information to wisdom?
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Her
ring
roe
Pur
se s
eine
Herring roe-on-kelp Gathered by hand
Sea b
irds
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Age-structured simulation model of herring and fishery
Herring Biology• Constant adult mortality.• Constant weight-at-age• Sex ratio = 0.5. • Variable recruitment• Unfished Biomass (B0; 24,000 mt females)
Fishery• Fishery closes at 0.2B0
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review
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Roe harvest via purse seine
Roe-
on-k
elp
harv
est
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review
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If I am willing to accept a 10% risk of the fishery closing,what is the “safe operating space” ?
Providing for predators
Ignoring prey needs of predators
Shelton, Samhouri, Stier, Levin in review
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These are timely results… the more modeling that is encompassing and holistic, the better – Council of the Haida Nation
We are really excited about this herring model. It will be useful as we think about herring conservation this year-Parks Canada
Even donkeys can be useful
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If we want the EBM fairy tale to come true
We must answer the questions that managers ask, but also the questions that should have asked
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An IEA Fairy tale can come true if
• We engage stakeholders, managers, & policy makers early, often and continually
• We conduct rigorous human dimensions research as a core component of IEAs (not an add-on)
• We don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good
• Embrace realistic expectations about IEA science
• Serve current management needs, but not at the expense of more integrative ocean management
Samhouri, Haupt, Levin, Link, Shuford 2013 ICES J Mar Sci
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In a utilitarian age, of all other times, it is a matter of grave importance that fairy tales should be respected."
~Charles Dickens~
"If you want your children to be intelligent, read them fairy tales. If you want them to be more intelligent, read them more fairy tales.”
~Albert Einstein~
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• Understand the human dimensions of the ecosystem -- beyond commercial revenue
• Develop management strategies that work for people• Meet legal & policy requirements -- & ethical obligations• Identify & understand trade-offs• Maintain & improve the wellbeing of people
-- in ways that also maintain & improve the integrity of ecosystems
Why Assess Human Wellbeing?