ICES advice for 2008
description
Transcript of ICES advice for 2008
![Page 1: ICES advice for 2008](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062500/56815170550346895dbfa445/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
North Sea
ICES advice for 2008
Martin Pastoors
(chair of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management)
short version
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New timing for North Sea advice
EC requested for earlier advice for North Sea Allows more time for stakeholder inputs
long-term strategies Expert group (WGNSSK) moved to early May Advice provided early June Some recruitment surveys in August / September Updates ONLY if substantial changes
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Basis for the ICES advice for 2008
Assessment data Fisheries (landings, discards, catch rates) up to 2006 Surveys (including IBTS q1 survey in 2007) CPUE information (up to 2006)
Recruitment information Autumn surveys not yet available
• Only difference with previous years Recent average recruitment used in forecasts
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Advisory meetings (on fisheries)
Plenary meetings May 2007
• Baltic
• Arctic
• Iceland & Greenland
• Faroe Islands
• Herring stocks
• North Sea (NEW !)
October 2007• North Sea (updates)
• Celtic seas / West Scotland
• Bay of Biscay / Iberian
• Widely distributed stocks
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Regional orientation
Advisory report organized by “Ecoregion”
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Changes to timing of advice
EC has requested ICES to provide most advice before the summer allows for stakeholder consultation processes focus on long-term strategies
This year: North Sea as experiment From 2008 onwards, for all stocks in EU waters Still needs consultation on what type of advice
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Changes to ICES advisory structure
Three advisory committee’s Advisory Committee on
Fishery Management (ACFM)
Advisory Committee on Ecosystems (ACE)
Advisory Committee on the Marine Environment (ACME)
Layered system Expert groups Review groups (Subgroups) Advisory committee
Only one (part-time) paid chair
One advisory council oversee the advisory process make sure it adheres to quality
standards Advisory “bureau”
coordinate the advisory process 3-4 (part-time) positions
Expert groups responsible for science AND
drafting advice Review groups
responsible for final advice
Old New
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North Sea stocksOverview
home
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Stock trends: SSB
1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
5000
015
0000
2500
00
cod-347d
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
04e
+05
8e+0
5
had-34
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
01e
+05
2e+0
53e
+05
nop-nsea
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
02e
+05
4e+0
5
ple-nsea
tonn
es Bpa
Blim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
02e
+05
4e+0
5
sai-3a46
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
040
000
8000
012
0000
sol-nsea
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
SSB
Cod Haddock
Norway pout Plaice
Saithe Sole
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1960 1970 1980 1990 20000.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
01.
2
cod-347d
F (
2-4)
Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
had-34
F (
2-4) Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
nop-nsea
F (
1-2)
F(pa) undefined F(lim) undefined
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
ple-nsea
F (
2-6)
Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
sai-3a46
F (
3-6)
Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
sol-nsea
F (
2-6)
Fpa
F(lim) undefined
MEANF Stock trends: fishing mortalityCod Haddock
Norway pout Plaice
Saithe Sole
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1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
1000
000
2000
000
cod-347d
thou
sand
s, a
ge 1
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
02e
+08
4e+0
8 had-34
thou
sand
s, a
ge 0
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0e
+00
1.0e
+08
2.0e
+08
nop-nsea
thou
sand
s, a
ge 0
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
02e
+06
4e+0
6
ple-nsea
thou
sand
s, a
ge 1
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
02e
+05
sai-3a46
thou
sand
s, a
ge 3
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+0
02e
+05
4e+0
5
sol-nsea
thou
sand
s, a
ge 1
GM
REC Stock trends: recruitmentCod Haddock
Norway pout Plaice
Saithe Sole
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Status of fish stocks (with assessments)
Only for Ecoregion North Sea“Unknown category” can includes stocks that are depleted or high
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006
greenorangeredunknown
02
46
81
0
ecoregion: NS N relative to fishing mortality reference points
N
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
greenorangeredunknown
02
46
81
0
ecoregion: NS Nrelative to biomass reference points
N
SSB F
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Advice overview
Area Stock SSB F Advice TAC Advice %changeNorth Sea Cod 1) Reduced At risk 0 20000 0
Haddock 1) Full sustainable 55400 55000 46400 -16%Whiting 2) Low Low 15100 23800 5000 -67%Saithe Full sustainable 136000 136000 150000 10%Plaice At risk sustainable 32000 50000 26000 -19%Sole Reduced sustainable 10800 15000 13900 29%Norway pout 3) Full 0 0Herring 1) At risk At risk 240000 341000 175000 -27%Sprat 3) Unknown Unknown 195000 170000
IIIa Cod (Kattegat) Reduced 0 731 0Plaice Unknown Unknown 9600 10625 9400 -2%Sole Full sustainable 740 900 970 31%Herring in IIIa and 22-24 Overexploited 99000 118500 71000 -28%
VIId Plaice Unknown Unknown 4000 5080 3500 -13%Sole Full sustainable 6440 6220 6590 2%
1 Only applies to human consumption fishery in the North Sea2 Advice applies to North Sea and VIId; TAC to North Sea only3 Only in-year advice
2007 2008State of the stock
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Details by stock Cod North Sea, Eastern channel and Skagerrak Haddock North Sea and IIIa Whiting North Sea and VIId Saithe North Sea, VIa and IIIa Plaice North Sea Sole North Sea
Plaice Eastern Channel Sole Eastern Channel Plaice Skagerrak and Kattegat
Norway pout North Sea (for 2007)
( Sandeel North Sea: provided in October)( Elasmobranchs North Sea: no advice in 2007)( Nephrops North Sea: no advice in 2007)
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CodNorth Sea, eastern Channel and Skagerrak
home
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Cod
Assessment Age based, 2 surveys, landings + discards Estimates “unaccounted removals”
Issues Underreporting (2002-2005) Combined English and Scottish 3rd quarter surveys Continued unaccounted removals Accepted as analytical assessment
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Cod: summary
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+05
4e+
056e
+05
yieldto
nnes
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
Mean F (2-4)
1/ye
ar
Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
010
0000
020
0000
0
Recruitment age 1
thou
sand
s
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
010
0000
2000
00
SSB
tonn
esBpa
Blim
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Cod: history of assessments
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005
SSB ('000 tonnes)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1990 1995 2000 2005
Fishing mortality: 2-4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1990 1995 2000 2005
Note: some of the previous assessment were presented as indicative of trends only. Ages over which mean fishing mortality is calculated was changed in 2004.
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Cod: CPUE and stock trends
Mean-standardized catch rates of North Sea cod recorded by English trawlers fishing in the first quarter of the year, the 2+ cod biomass as estimated by the 2006 ICES WGNSSK assessment and the IBTS Q1 survey.
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Cod: forecasts
14% reduced F held constant
14% reduced F in 2007, zero after
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Cod: advice
Following the recovery plan Blim to be achieved in 2009 if F were reduced to 86%
of the F2006: total removals in 2008 of 76 500 t.
ICES advice Low stock size and recent poor recruitment: stock
cannot be rebuilt to Bpa in 2009 even with a zero catch. Simulations that with low recruitment and zero catch in
2008 and 2009 is likely to achieve rebuilding of the stock to Bpa by 2009 (“large growth potential”)
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HaddockNorth Sea and IIIa
home
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Haddock
Assessment Landings + discards + industrial bycatch 3 surveys to calibrate
Issues Strong 1999 yearclass; slow growing 2005 yearclass is above average
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Agreed management plan
January 2007 Target F = 0.3, TAC constraint ICES advice on management plan: 27 October 2007 Conclusions
The agreed reference points in the management plan are consistent with the precautionary approach
Target F = 0.3 with TAC constraint ±15% leads on average to a <5% risk of B < Blim within the next 20 years.
Increasing the target F increases the risk. Although the management plan has not been fully tested (e.g. at
lower fishing mortalities), ICES concludes that the management plan can provisionally be accepted as precautionary and be used as the basis for advice.
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Haddock: summary
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
004e
+05
8e+
05yield
tonn
es
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
Mean F (2-4)
1/ye
ar Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+08
4e+
08
Recruitment age 0
thou
sand
s
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
004e
+05
8e+
05
SSB
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
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Haddock in Sub-area IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa: history
of assessments
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1990 1995 2000 2005
SSB ('000 tonnes)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1990 1995 2000 2005
Fishing mortality: 2-4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 1995 2000 2005
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Haddock: advice
Last year: Fishing at F=0.3: landings 2007 = 55 400 t. Associated discards: 32 500 t. Target F is in accordance with precautionary approach
New advice The agreed management plan can be provisionally
accepted as precautionary ICES therefore advises according to this plan. This implies a TAC of 49 300 t in 2008 (15% change in
TAC), which should include industrial bycatch..
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Whitingin North Sea and Eastern Channel
home
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Whiting
Assessment Assessment indicative of recent trends (1995 …) Discrepancies between historical survey data and
catches
Issues Recruitment in last 5 years appears very low
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me
an
stan
da
rdis
ed S
SB
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
scogfs 1scogfs 2
enggfs 2ibts
combinedXSA
Tuning period
me
an
stan
da
rdis
ed S
SB
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
scogfs 1scogfs 2
enggfs 2ibts
combinedXSA
Tuning period
Whiting: “assessments”
catch + surveys
Surveys only
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Whiting: trends in different areas
In the ICES 2006 report, research vessel surveys indicated a stable stock in the northern area and a declining stock in the southern area since 2001
Fisher surveys indicated a decline in the northern component from 2001 to 2005, and a stable or increasing southern component.
Recent reports by some fleets indicate very low catch rates in the southern North Sea and English Channel during the past two years.
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Whiting: recruitment
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Whiting: advice
Advice last year Recent average landings (2003-2005): 15 100 t.
New advice Low catches have led to low fishing mortality from 2002–2005 low recruitment has resulted in a declining SSB to the lowest
observed. Recent recruitment has been approximately 30% of average
recruitments (year classes 1994–2001). Given the relative reduction in recruitment it is necessary to
reduce future landings in order to keep fishing mortality low. Applying the reduction in recruitment to the average landings from
the past three years corresponds to human consumption landings of 5 000 t in 2008.
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Saithein North Sea, Skagerrak, West of Scotland and Rockall
home
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Saithe
Assessment Landings data, 2 CPUE series, 2 surveys
Issues No exploitation on juveniles (not available to fishery) Saithe management plan: target F 0.3
• will be evaluated in October 2007
• although ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan, the target fishing mortality in the management plan is expected to give high long-term gains in the present situation
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Saithe: summary
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
010
0000
2500
00yield
tonn
es
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Mean F (3-6)
1/ye
ar
Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+05
Recruitment age 3
thou
sand
s
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+05
4e+
05
SSB
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
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Saithe in Sub-area IV, Division IIIa (Skagerrak) & Sub-area
VI: history of assessments
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 1995 2000 2005
SSB ('000 tonnes)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1990 1995 2000 2005
Fishing mortality: 3-6
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1990 1995 2000 2005
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Saithe: advice
Last year Target F in management plan is precautionary and
gives higher long term gains Follow management plan; TAC 136 000 t.
New advice ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan Target fishing mortality in the management plan is
expected to give high long-term gains ICES therefore recommends to limit landings in 2008 to
150 000 t.
• Area split: 91% in IV+IIIa, 9% in VI.
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Plaice in the North Sea
home
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Plaice
Assessment Landings + discards; 3 surveys Discards
• before 2000: model reconstruction
• 2000 and after: NL + UK + DK discards sampling
Issues Most recent information:nearly 80% of the catch by
number is discarded. all year classes since 2003 have been low
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Plaice: catchlandings and discards
year
we
igh
t (1
00
0 to
nn
es)
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
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Plaice Sub-area IV (North Sea): summary
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
010
0000
2500
00yield
tonn
es GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Mean F (2-6)
1/ye
ar
Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+06
4e+
06
Recruitment age 1
thou
sand
s
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+05
4e+
05
SSB
tonn
es Bpa
Blim
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Plaice: fishing mortality by component
discardslandings
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Plaice Sub-area IV (North Sea): history of assessments
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1990 1995 2000 2005
SSB ('000 tonnes)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1990 1995 2000 2005
Fishing mortality: 2-6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1990 1995 2000 2005
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Plaice: advice
Last year Rebuild to Bpa: landings 32 000 t. in 2007
New advice Rebuild to Bpa: landings 26 000 t in 2008
• TAC 2007: 50 000 t.
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SoleNorth Sea
home
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Sole
Assessment Landings data + 2 surveys + 1 CPUE series
Issues Main fishery in southern North Sea; more coastal. Mixed fishery with plaice; mesh size focussed on sole Fishing mortality just below Fpa in 2006 Yearclasses 2003 and 2004: weak Yearclass 2005: above average
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Sole in Sub-area IV (North Sea): summary
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
010
000
2500
0
yield
tonn
es
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Mean F (2-6)
1/ye
ar Fpa
F(lim) undefined
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+05
4e+
05
Recruitment age 1
thou
sand
s
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
040
000
8000
012
0000
SSB
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
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Sole in Sub-area IV (North Sea): history of assessments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005
SSB ('000 tonnes)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1990 1995 2000 2005
Fishing mortality: 2-6
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1990 1995 2000 2005
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Sole: advice
Advice last year rebuild to Bpa: landings 10 800 t.
New advice SSB above Bpa: landings 13 900 t.
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Plaice in the Eastern Channel
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Plaice in the Eastern Channel
Assessment Exploratory assessment; trends only Confirmed by survey-only assessment
Issues Stock identity (plaice in North Sea, Western Channel) Discarding of undersized plaice (not included) Conflicting signals in the data
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Plaice in the Eastern Channel
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Plaice in the Eastern Channel
Advice last year Stock does not appear to decline In the absence of short-term forecasts, ICES
recommends to maintain landings in 2007 at 4000 t, average of 2003–2005.
New advice In the absence of short-term forecasts, ICES
recommends that landings in 2008 do not increase above the average of landings from the last three years (2004–2006), corresponding to 3500 t.
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Sole in the Eastern Channel
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Sole in the Eastern Channel
Assessment Landings + 2 CPUE series + 2 surveys
Issues Underreporting and misreporting of catches Discards of plaice in mixed flatfish fisheries Strong 2001 and 2004 yearclasses contribute to stock History of overestimating stock size
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Sole in Eastern Channel: summary
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
010
0030
0050
00
yield
tonn
es
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Mean F (3-8)
1/ye
ar
Fpa
Flim
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
020
000
4000
060
000
Recruitment age 1
thou
sand
s
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
050
0010
000
SSB
tonn
es Bpa
Blim undefined
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Sole in Division VIId (Eastern Channel): history of
assessments
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 1995 2000 2005
SSB ('000 tonnes)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
1990 1995 2000 2005
Fishing mortality: 3-8
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1990 1995 2000 2005
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Sole in the Eastern Channel
Advice last year Fish according to Fpa; landings of 6 440 t.
New advice Fish according to Fpa; landings of 6 590 t.
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Plaice in the Skagerrak and Kattegat
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Plaice in IIIa
Assessment Surveys cover mainly inner part of IIIa Landings are mainly taken close to North Sea No basis for an assessment
Issues Stock identity (high total mortality) Assessments have been very uncertain for many years Recruitment and SSB in IIIa appear to high in recent
years (according to surveys)
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Plaice in IIIa: distribution of landings
2006
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Plaice in IIIa: survey distributions
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Plaice in IIIa
Advice last year No analytical assessment Surveys indicate biomass increase. The advice is to maintain the current TAC of 9600 t for
2007.
New advice Indications that biomass and recruitment has
increased. No indications that the current catch level is detrimental
to the stock Advice for 2008 is not to increase the catches above
the most recent catch of 9400 t (2006).
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Norway pout
North Sea and Skagerrak
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Norway pout
Assessment Seasonal assessment method 1 commercial CPUE series + 2 surveys
Issues Recent recruitment low But 2005 yearclass just above average
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Norway pout: summary
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
010
020
030
040
0
yield
tonn
es
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
Mean F (1-2)
1/ye
ar
F(pa) undefined F(lim) undefined
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.0e
+00
1.0e
+08
2.0e
+08
Recruitment age 0
thou
sand
s
GM
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0e+
002e
+05
SSB
tonn
es
Bpa
Blim
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Norway pout: advice
Suggested management plan by ICES In-year monitoring using surveys and exploratory
fishing Evaluation finished in February 2007
ICES advice No fishing unless new information shows that stock can
be rebuild to Bpa by 2008