Jón Geir Pétursson & Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson

ICELAND‘S POLICY AND ACTION PLAN

ON CLIMATE CHANGE

With a Specific Focus on Agriculture and Land use/land use change/forestry

Nordic Agriculture facing Climate Change”, Turku, Finland 28. June 2016

Photo: Hugi Ólafsson

1) Iceland’s Climate Profile

2) Multilateral Climate Commitments

3) General Climate Policy

4) 2010 Action Plan on Climate Mitigation

5) Emissions

6) New CC Action plan and agriculture

7) Afforestation as a climate mitigation activity in Iceland

Photos from Hugi Ólafsson

Iceland’s GHG emissions profile

• Small population (325,000) and overall emissions (4.5 m tons); 14 tons per capita

• Unusual emissions profile (industrial processes and transport biggest sectors)

• Highest share of renewables in OECD: 85% of total energy use; 100% of stationary energy production (electricity and space heating)

• Abundant renewable energy sources (hydro, geothermal)

• Abundant carbon sequestration opportunities (afforestation, revegetation)

Photo: Hugi Ólafsson

GHG emissions in 2010

– share of sectors

Iceland EU-15

Iceland = 4.5 m tons CO2 eq. Scholven power plant (Gelsenkirchen,

Germany) = 9.4 m tons CO2

Absolute emissions = 0.01% of global emissions = 0.1% of EU-28 emissions

De-carbonization of energy production:

- Energy production = 4,6% of total emissions (CO2 from geothermal)

- Use and share of renewables (hydro and geothermal has increased greatly

CO2 emissions (thousands of tons/year)from energy production in Reykjavík

International Commitments

• UNFCCC cornerstone of climate policy

• Iceland is part of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), as a

part of the EEA Agreement; starting in 2012

• 11 Icelandic entities under the EU-ETS (heavy industry, aviation, fish

meal production); 40% of Iceland’s emissions

• Rules and targets for Icelandic industry and sectors comparable to

that of other European countries (EU, Norway, Switzerland)

• Paris: Iceland is committed to take part in joint efforts with the

European Union (EU) and Norway to reduce greenhouse-gas

emissions by 40% by 2030 (as compared to 1990 levels).

• Iceland will fulfil its international obligations according to the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol.

• Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced, with a special emphasis on reducing the use of fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy sources and climate-friendly fuels.

• The government will attempt to increase carbon sequestrationfrom the atmosphere through afforestation, revegetation, wetland reclamation, and changed land use.

• Long-term aspirational goal: 50-75% net emissions cuts to 2050

• The government will support research and innovation in climate mitigation and will promote transfer of Icelandic expertise in renewable energy and climate-friendly technology.

• The government will prepare for adaptation to climate change.

Government 2007 Climate Strategy

2010 Action Plan

• Action Plan takes account of 2007 Strategy and likely

international commitments; builds on 2009 expert study

on mitigation potential and cost

• Ten “key actions” to cut net emissions, so that they

will be 1.2-1.7 million tons less than in a

„Business-as-usual“ scenario in 2020

• Key actions should ensure that Iceland can honour

its post-2012 commitments in the period up to 2020

• High mitigation potential in LULUCF: afforestation

and revegetationvegetation

• Significant mitigation potential in transport and fisheries

• Heavy industry must acquire emission permits after 2012

• Net emissions in non-ETS sectors should decrease appr.

30% from 2005 to 2020

1. Application of EU-ETS to relevant sectors

2. Carbon tax

3. Change in taxes and fees for cars and fuels

4. Official procurement of low-carbon and fuel efficient vehicles

5. Increased share of public transport, walking and bicycling in transport

6. Biofuels for the fishing fleet

7. Electrification of fish-meal production (currently using heavy oil)

8. Increased afforestation and revegetation

9. Restoration of drained wetlands

10.Increased R&D in climate-friendly technology

- Total: 1330-1570 Gg less net emissions per year by 2020 than in Business-as-usual

Ten Key Actions

Trends in

emissions

• The Icelandic government has announced a new sixteen-point plan for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and tackling climate change.

• The plan was presented in the run-up to COP21, UNFCCC climate conference in Paris.

New Climate Change Action Plan

(Sóknaráætlun í loftslagsmálum)

• Divided into three sections

• The first deals with reducing overall emissions in Iceland –generated by transport, fisheries, agriculture and land use.

• The second section on bolstering international cooperation and assisting other countries in reducing emissions.

• Thirdly, the plan addresses the issue of improving infrastructure in Iceland, involving better data and forecasts, awareness-raising on the issue of climate change, and closer monitoring of the country’s glaciers.

The new CC mitigation action plan

Main focus is on following initiatives:

1. Marine sector: Mitigation roadmap

2. Agricultural sector: Mitigation roadmap

3. Increased carbon sequestration in forestry and land reclamation

4. Enter Wetland restoration program

5. Minimize Food waste

Agriculture and food related focal actions

Icelanders are self-sufficient in all major livestock products, such as meat, milk, and eggs.

Traditional livestock production is grassland based and most farm animals are native breeds, i.e. dairy cattle, sheep, horses, and goats, which are all of an ancient Nordic origin. These animals are generally smaller than the breeds common elsewhere in Europe. Beef production, however, is partly through imported breeds, as is most poultry and all pork production.

There is not much arable crop production in Iceland, due to a cold climate and short growing season.

Cropland in Iceland consists mainly of cultivated hayfields, but potatoes, barley, beets, and carrots are grown on limited acreage.

Agriculture and climate change -

Background

Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015

• Total methane emissions from agriculture amounted to 12.61 Gg in 2013; total nitrous oxide emissions to 0.89Gg. Thus combined CH4 and N2O emissions amounted to 648 Gg CO2-eq. in 2013.

• Aggregated agriculture emissions were 779.53 Gg CO2-eq. in 1990. The 17% decrease is mainly due to a decrease in sheep livestock population, reducing methane emissions from enteric fermentation and reduced fertilizer application reducing N2O emissions from agricultural soils. 88% of CH4 emissions were caused by enteric fermentation, the rest by manure management. 77% of N2O emissions were caused by agricultural soils, the rest by manure management, i.e. storage of manure.

Agricultural emissions

Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015

During the period 2002 – 2013, satellite data from NASA (NDVI)

suggest no change or reduced vigor of vegetation on most of the land

area, despite warming during the period.

Exceptions: afforested areas and Nootka lupin fields (green on map).

Raynolds et al. 2015. Remote Sens. 7(8), 9492-9506

„Iceland is a

doomsday scenario

for the rest of the

world“ (Andrés Arnalds,

Icel. Soil Conservation

Service on BBC, 2005)

Photo: Christof Wöll

Photo: Christof Wöll

Photo: Christof Wöll

Photo: Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson

New mitigation roadmap for agriculture

Source: Iceland, CC. Nat. Inv. Report 2015

• Agricultural data is at present not of adequate quality

• The aim is to carry out a reliable analysis of the main GHG-emission sources and sinks in Icelandic agriculture.

• Information gained will be used as a roadmap to propose mechanisms of reducing emissions from agriculture.

Afforestation and its potential for CC mitigation

• Iceland is the least forested of all the Nordic (and European)

countries (save Faroe Islands and Greenland).

• At settlement (in 9th century) Iceland was „wooded between

the mountains and the seashore“ (source: Ari „the wise“

Thorgilsson, 13th century historian).

• The difference (25-40% down to 0.5-1.9%) can be explained

by „land-use change“ since settlement.

• Iceland‘s lack of forests is not because the country is „too

cold“.

0.5% has „forest“ (by FAO

definition.

1.9% has woody

vegetation.

Icelandic Forest Research, before and after

afforestation

1967

20141967

Photo: Aðalsteinn Sigurgeirsson

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Lífmassi Dautt lífrænt efni Brúnjörð Mójörð Samtals

kílóto

nn

CO

2

Frá 1990

Allir skógar

-100

1020304050

Lífmassi Dautt lífræntefni

Brúnjörð Mójörð Samtalskíl

óto

nn

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2

Frá 1990

Allir skógar

Sequestration

of CO2 in

2012:

268 kt CO2

CO2 emissions

from

automobiles:

782 kt CO2

Cultivated forest

Seminatural (birch) woodlands

Source: Arnór Snorraso, Icel. Forest Inventorybiomass

Dead

organic

matter

soil Total

All

forestland

As of 1990

Iceland• Net-C-sequestration in Icelandic forests amounts

0,3 million tons/an.

• Net anthropogenic GHG emissions were (in 2014) 3,5-16,5 million tons CO2-eq. (depending on how emission from drained wetlands are factored in or out).

• Thus, the Icelandic forest sink annually sequesters 2 - 8% of net GHG emissions.

• Emissions per capita: 10,5 to 49,5 tons / an.

• Forest cover 0,5 / 1,35 / 1,9% af the total area of Iceland (depending on how one chooses to define ‘forestland’).

Meginheimild: Þjóðarskýrsla Íslands um losun gróðurhúsaloftegunda

Rannsóknastöð

skógræktar

Birch limit: 7,6°C

Potential distribution of birch woodlands in Iceland (green)

in 2015, with 1.5°C warming from 2008.

Total potential woodland area: 8.900.000 ha

THANK YOU!

Thank you for your attention.

Photo: Páll Ingþór Kristinsson