ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007 The Future of Technology Ted...

ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007

The Future of Technology Ted Demopoulos

ICE® Technology Conference 2007


We are a lot further along than we think


We’ll Look At:

•Where we are today•Two major issues today -- and very much into the future•Where we are going


Technology Pervades Society(more deeply than we think)

• My “special” friend Ralphie, email junkie

• My 102 year old father (or so he claims) just got online

• People check their email when they get up at night to go to the bathroom

• When my plane landed in Edmonton, what did “everyone” immediately do?


Technology Pervades our World


Spaceship Demopoulos

– Sonar– GPS/Maps/Gives you directions out loud– DVD Player– Microprocessor in keys – anti-theft – Rearview camera– etc.

The Six Million Dollar Van?


•Technological advances allow the production of more output from existing resources

-more efficient ways of producing existing output-production of new (or substantially improved) items

• We gain both from more output/cheaper prices and from improved items and innovations

Let’s Take a Step Back:Technology – the basic idea:


“Killer Applications” of Technology

• Email• Online Shopping and Retailing• Information Access• Cell Phones

Many more, e.g. medical and industrial examples quickly come to mind


“Less than Killer Applications” of Technology

-Non disruptive applications of technology-Small incremental improvements to our lives

• DVD players, ball point pens, antilock brakes, central heat, air conditioning, etc.

Their net sum is extremely significant


. . . ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea...

-Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

We think Technology is pretty neat


This Leads To Problem #1

• “Technology for Technology’s Sake”

- unnecessary complexity– Examples:

• Complexity in MS Word

• The need to reboot anything

• Microprocessors in car keys


Unnecessary Unreliability

• Unnecessary complexity leads to unnecessary unreliability

• Complexity increases attack surface

• Simply more that can go wrong!

• Often no backup plans


Do most people or organizations have workable backup plans for when technology fails?

Ted’s Backup Plan for This Trip


My Not Particularly Smart House

Sometimes has a mind of it’s ownCalls the policeCalls the fire department

What could a “Smart House” do?


SIMPLE is Good

“Make everything as simple as possible”

-Albert Einstein


The Full Quote

“Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler”

-Albert Einstein


Reliability?• Technology has been evolving so rapidly,

the emphasis has been on functionality, not reliability

• This will (need) to change!

• If Microsoft had focused more on reliability, would Windows own the desktop?


Problem #2Too Much Information

• The “Information Overload” Age

• Endless interruptions: cellphones, IM, pagers, email

• More productive or less so?


Privacy

• Distant past – villages – little privacy. Reasonable in context

• Recent past – cities/industrial age. Reasonable privacy

• Today – who has your data? Is it yours? Is it correct?

• I fear Big Brothers – e.g. Google, Microsoft, Verizon, Marketing Agencies, everyone who stores personal data


Beware Big Brother MSN Virtual Earth?

Does your insurance company know about the trampoline Ted? Why is Bob’s car there alone?


Ted’s Hobbies

• You got building permits for those antennas Ted?


As told to a new client

• I see Joe Schmoe just spent a week with your organization. He’s very positive on the experience. . . . . . He’s sitting in the Phoenix airport waiting to go home and his flight is delayed . . . .

• From the Technorati.com search engine, a multi page posting on a blog


Where We Are Going

1) Integration of technology into our world

2) Reliability – will be assumed – in the future

3) Ease of use – enormous work on the Human-Computer interface

4) Technology only where it makes sense

5) Health Care/Life Extension/Alleged Immortality (at least for the very rich!)


Two Final Thoughts

The Small Non-Disruptive “Less Than Killer Applications” of Technology add up to a lot

(Imagine a small audio recorder that records, and indexes, your whole life – so you don’t forget anything)


There Is One Future

The Future of Technology is The Future


Thank You

Ted Demopoulos, [email protected]

ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007 The Future of Technology Ted...

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