ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are...

40
ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions To: NAM/CAR/SAM Seminar on Space Weather By: M. Pat Murphy, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Date: July 16, 2018

Transcript of ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are...

Page 1: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

ICAO Space Weather Center ProvisionsTo NAMCARSAM Seminar on Space WeatherBy M Pat Murphy Federal Aviation Administration USDate July 16 2018

Overview

bull What is ldquoSpace Weatherrdquobull Space Weather Phenomena

Solar Flares Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms

bull Impacts to Aviationbull Services in ICAO

Magnetosphere

Energetic Charged Particles

ElectromagneticRadiation

What is space weatherSpace weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in

the space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space and groundbased technological systems as

well as endanger human health

Ionosphere

Presenter
Presentation Notes
At the Earthrsquos surface the atmosphere and the geomagnetic field provide ample protection from most of the solar electromagnetic radiation and charged particles The protective boundary of the Earthrsquos magnetic field is highly reactive to the onslaught of energy and pressure originating from the sun However while the sunrsquos harmful radiation and particles donrsquot generally reach the surface in sufficient quantities to have direct harmful effects their secondary effects are often felt The Earthrsquos magnetosphere redistributes its particle populations often sending a rush of energetic particles along magnetic field lines into the atmosphere over the polar caps and creating the swirling red green and white auroras Other particles pour into the Van Allen radiation belts and encircle the Earth in a ring of electric current The Earthrsquos magnetic field itself can distort to such an extent that compasses at the surface swing 10 degrees away from the magnetic pole The ionosphere (80-1000 km above the Earthrsquos surface) changes in ways that affect radio transmissions absorbing some radio frequencies distorting others and creating electric currents that affect systems on the ground13

4

The Sun at Solar Maximum

Sunspots and the Solar Cycle

~27 day full rotation

The Sun Today

Solar Cycle Updatebull Cycle 23 began in May 1996 bull Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120bull Solar Minimum in December 2008bull Solar Cycle 24 Underway

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Smoo

thed

Sun

spot

Num

ber

Sunspot Solar Cycles

2317161514 21201918 22

Chart1

23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12

Sheet1

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
1 Cycle 2 Cycle 10 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 Cycle 23 Cycle 23
Jan-32 1 31-Dec-32 4 111 31-Dec-32 111 277 31-Dec-00 95 1-Jan-00 5 2 112 32 4 10 May-96 8 1 8
Feb-32 31-Dec-33 3 57 31-Dec-33 57 312 31-Dec-01 27 11 3 121 33 4 10 Jun-96 9 2 9
Mar-32 31-Dec-34 0 87 31-Dec-34 87 252 31-Dec-02 5 16 4 135 36 5 11 Jul-96 8 0 3 8
Apr-32 31-Dec-35 0 361 31-Dec-35 361 Oct-60 258 31-Dec-03 244 23 5 145 39 5 12 Aug-96 8 4 8
May-32 2 31-Dec-36 5 797 31-Dec-36 797 Nov-60 293 31-Dec-04 42 36 6 159 39 6 12 Sep-96 8 5 8
Jun-32 31-Dec-37 25 1144 31-Dec-37 1144 Mar-89 285 31-Dec-05 635 58 7 172 38 6 13 Oct-96 9 6 9
Jul-32 1 31-Dec-38 46 1096 31-Dec-38 1096 Mar-60 251 31-Dec-06 538 29 8 186 41 7 14 Nov-96 10 7 10
Aug-32 31-Dec-39 56 888 31-Dec-39 888 May-67 241 31-Dec-07 62 20 9 206 49 7 15 Dec-96 10 8 10
Sep-32 31-Dec-40 56 678 Mar-40 8529 8529 Jul-82 229 31-Dec-08 485 10 10 229 55 7 15 Jan-97 11 9 11
Oct-32 31-Dec-41 44 475 31-Dec-40 678 Feb-86 228 31-Dec-09 439 8 11 26 58 8 16 Feb-97 11 10 11
Nov-32 31-Dec-42 19 306 Sep-41 5440 5440 Mar-40 226 31-Dec-10 186 3 12 293 62 9 16 Mar-97 14 11 14
Dec-32 4 31-Dec-43 21 163 31-Dec-41 475 223 31-Dec-11 57 0 13 329 76 11 17 Apr-97 17 12 17
Jan-33 31-Dec-44 7 96 31-Dec-42 306 222 31-Dec-12 36 0 14 364 92 12 20 May-97 18 13 18
Feb-33 31-Dec-45 13 332 31-Dec-43 163 221 31-Dec-13 14 2 15 389 104 13 22 Jun-97 20 14 20
Mar-33 31-Dec-46 77 926 31-Dec-44 96 216 31-Dec-14 96 11 16 415 116 13 25 Jul-97 23 2 15 23
Apr-33 31-Dec-47 54 1516 31-Dec-45 332 215 31-Dec-15 474 27 17 431 137 15 28 Aug-97 25 16 25
May-33 1 31-Dec-48 28 1363 31-Dec-46 926 214 31-Dec-16 571 47 18 437 167 18 31 Sep-97 28 17 28
Jun-33 31-Dec-49 49 1347 31-Dec-47 1516 212 31-Dec-17 1039 63 19 461 192 20 35 Oct-97 32 18 32
Jul-33 31-Dec-50 34 839 31-Dec-48 1363 212 31-Dec-18 806 60 20 499 215 22 37 Nov-97 35 19 35
Aug-33 1 31-Dec-51 44 694 31-Dec-49 1347 203 31-Dec-19 636 39 21 53 238 26 41 Dec-97 39 20 39
Sep-33 1 31-Dec-52 39 315 31-Dec-50 839 201 31-Dec-20 376 28 22 58 26 30 45 Jan-98 44 21 44
Oct-33 31-Dec-53 15 139 31-Dec-51 694 199 31-Dec-21 261 26 23 61 293 34 50 Feb-98 49 22 49
Nov-33 31-Dec-54 4 44 31-Dec-52 315 199 31-Dec-22 142 22 24 64 326 38 57 Mar-98 54 23 54
Dec-33 3 31-Dec-55 9 38 31-Dec-53 139 196 31-Dec-23 58 11 25 67 341 42 63 Apr-98 57 24 57
Jan-34 31-Dec-56 61 1417 31-Dec-54 44 196 31-Dec-24 167 21 26 71 36 47 68 May-98 59 25 59
Feb-34 31-Dec-57 72 1902 31-Dec-55 38 195 31-Dec-25 443 40 27 72 386 51 70 Jun-98 63 26 63
Mar-34 31-Dec-58 57 1848 31-Dec-56 1417 193 31-Dec-26 639 78 28 72 42 55 73 Jul-98 66 8 27 66
Apr-34 31-Dec-59 68 159 31-Dec-57 1902 192 31-Dec-27 69 122 29 75 45 57 75 Aug-98 68 28 68
May-34 31-Dec-60 98 1123 31-Dec-58 1848 186 31-Dec-28 778 103 30 77 49 59 79 Sep-98 70 29 70
Jun-34 31-Dec-61 34 539 Jul-59 17201 17201 186 31-Dec-29 649 73 31 77 52 62 82 Oct-98 71 30 71
Jul-34 31-Dec-62 3 376 31-Dec-59 159 185 31-Dec-30 357 47 32 78 54 66 85 Nov-98 73 31 73
Aug-34 31-Dec-63 19 279 Oct-60 12433 12433 183 31-Dec-31 212 35 33 81 57 69 88 Dec-98 78 32 78
Sep-34 31-Dec-64 5 102 Nov-60 12049 12049 181 31-Dec-32 111 11 34 86 61 72 91 Jan-99 83 33 83
Oct-34 31-Dec-65 4 151 31-Dec-60 1123 181 31-Dec-33 57 5 35 92 64 77 94 Feb-99 85 34 85
Nov-34 31-Dec-66 19 47 31-Dec-61 539 179 31-Dec-34 87 16 36 84 68 83 95 Mar-99 84 35 84
Dec-34 0 31-Dec-67 27 937 31-Dec-62 376 174 31-Dec-35 361 34 37 104 72 88 95 Apr-99 86 36 86
Jan-35 31-Dec-68 18 1059 31-Dec-63 279 173 31-Dec-36 797 70 38 106 76 90 95 May-99 91 37 91
Feb-35 31-Dec-69 10 1055 31-Dec-64 102 173 31-Dec-37 1144 81 39 107 79 92 97 Jun-99 93 38 93
Mar-35 31-Dec-70 23 1045 31-Dec-65 151 171 31-Dec-38 1096 111 40 112 83 96 101 Jul-99 94 5 39 94
Apr-35 31-Dec-71 6 666 31-Dec-66 47 168 31-Dec-39 888 101 41 116 86 101 102 Aug-99 98 40 98
May-35 31-Dec-72 36 689 31-Dec-67 937 31-Dec-40 678 73 42 115 88 108 112 Sep-99 102 41 102
Jun-35 31-Dec-73 22 38 31-Dec-68 1059 31-Dec-41 475 40 43 113 91 114 105 Oct-99 108 42 108
Jul-35 31-Dec-74 21 345 31-Dec-69 1055 31-Dec-42 306 20 44 112 93 117 107 Nov-99 111 43 111
Aug-35 31-Dec-75 7 155 31-Dec-70 1045 31-Dec-43 163 16 45 111 94 119 108 Dec-99 111 44 111
Sep-35 31-Dec-76 19 126 31-Dec-71 666 31-Dec-44 96 5 46 111 94 119 107 Jan-00 113 45 113
Oct-35 31-Dec-77 12 275 31-Dec-72 689 31-Dec-45 332 11 47 109 94 116 105 Feb-00 117 46 117
Nov-35 31-Dec-78 48 925 31-Dec-73 38 31-Dec-46 926 22 48 105 94 113 105 Mar-00 120 47 120
Dec-35 0 31-Dec-79 24 1554 31-Dec-74 345 31-Dec-47 1516 40 49 101 94 111 107 Apr-00 121 48 121
Jan-36 31-Dec-80 6 1546 31-Dec-75 155 31-Dec-48 1363 60 50 101 96 111 111 May-00 119 49 119
Feb-36 31-Dec-81 34 1405 31-Dec-76 126 31-Dec-49 1347 80 51 98 97 111 111 Jun-00 119 50 119
Mar-36 31-Dec-82 61 1159 31-Dec-77 275 31-Dec-50 839 83 52 91 98 111 110 Jul-00 120 13 51 120
Apr-36 1 31-Dec-83 40 666 31-Dec-78 925 31-Dec-51 694 477 53 86 97 110 110 Aug-00 119 52 119
May-36 31-Dec-84 35 459 31-Dec-79 1554 31-Dec-52 315 478 54 85 96 110 110 Sep-00 116 53 116
Jun-36 2 31-Dec-85 16 179 31-Dec-80 1546 31-Dec-53 139 307 55 89 95 110 108 Oct-00 115 54 115
Jul-36 31-Dec-86 22 134 31-Dec-81 1405 31-Dec-54 44 122 56 94 95 108 106 Nov-00 113 55 113
Aug-36 31-Dec-87 2 292 31-Dec-82 1159 31-Dec-55 38 96 57 94 95 106 106 Dec-00 112 56 112
Sep-36 31-Dec-88 18 1002 31-Dec-83 666 31-Dec-56 1417 102 58 89 94 107 106 Jan-01 109 57 109
Oct-36 31-Dec-89 57 1576 31-Dec-84 459 31-Dec-57 1902 324 59 86 93 109 106 Feb-01 104 58 107
Nov-36 2 31-Dec-90 38 1426 31-Dec-85 179 31-Dec-58 1848 476 60 85 95 109 107 Mar-01 105 59 105
Dec-36 5 31-Dec-91 85 1457 31-Dec-86 134 31-Dec-59 159 54 61 84 94 106 104 Apr-01 108 60 108
Jan-37 31-Dec-92 39 943 31-Dec-87 292 31-Dec-60 1123 629 62 82 91 104 105 May-01 109 61 109
Feb-37 1 31-Dec-93 17 546 31-Dec-88 1002 31-Dec-61 539 859 63 84 88 103 105 Jun-01 110 62 110
Mar-37 1 31-Dec-94 27 299 31-Dec-89 1576 31-Dec-62 376 612 64 89 96 103 105 Jul-01 112 22 63 112
Apr-37 13 31-Dec-95 8 175 31-Dec-90 1426 31-Dec-63 279 45 65 90 85 103 106 Aug-01 114 64 114
May-37 2 31-Dec-96 3 86 31-Dec-91 1457 31-Dec-64 102 364 66 905 83 100 106 Sep-01 114 65 114
Jun-37 31-Dec-97 8 215 31-Dec-92 943 31-Dec-65 151 209 67 869 80 97 106 Oct-01 114 66 114
Jul-37 31-Dec-98 29 643 31-Dec-93 546 31-Dec-66 47 114 68 795 78 97 106 Nov-01 116 67 116
Aug-37 2 31-Dec-99 10 933 31-Dec-94 299 31-Dec-67 937 378 69 773 77 98 107 Dec-01 115 68 115
Sep-37 1 31-Dec-00 35 1196 31-Dec-95 175 31-Dec-68 1059 698 70 776 77 95 105 Jan-02 114 69 114
Oct-37 5 31-Dec-01 40 111 31-Dec-96 86 31-Dec-69 1055 1061 71 754 74 91 104 Feb-02 115 70 115
Nov-37 31-Dec-02 23 104 31-Dec-97 215 31-Dec-70 1045 108 72 728 70 88 101 Mar-02 113 71 113
Dec-37 25 31-Dec-98 643 31-Dec-71 666 816 73 707 78 86 97 Apr-02 111 72 111
Jan-38 14 31-Dec-99 933 31-Dec-72 689 665 74 678 68 86 94 May-02 109 73 109
Feb-38 1 31-Dec-00 1196 31-Dec-73 38 348 75 646 68 84 89 Jun-02 106 74 106
Mar-38 31-Dec-01 111 31-Dec-74 345 306 76 601 66 80 84 Jul-02 103 19 75 103
Apr-38 6 31-Dec-02 104 31-Dec-75 155 7 77 583 65 76 80 Aug-02 99 76 99
May-38 7 31-Dec-76 126 198 78 567 64 74 78 Sep-02 95 77 95
Jun-38 31-Dec-77 275 926 79 543 63 73 74 Oct-02 91 78 91
Jul-38 2 31-Dec-78 925 1544 80 533 61 71 71 Nov-02 85 79 85
Aug-38 2 31-Dec-79 1554 1259 81 50 58 68 68 Dec-02 82 80 82
Sep-38 8 31-Dec-80 1546 848 82 461 58 66 67 Jan-03 81 81 81
Oct-38 6 31-Dec-81 1405 681 83 435 58 67 65 Feb-03 78 82 78
Nov-38 31-Dec-82 1159 385 84 404 59 68 65 Mar-03 74 83 74
Dec-38 46 31-Dec-83 666 228 85 374 58 67 66 Apr-03 70 84 70
Jan-39 31-Dec-84 459 102 86 356 55 65 66 May-03 68 85 68
Feb-39 4 31-Dec-85 179 241 87 345 52 62 67 Jun-03 65 86 65
Mar-39 1 31-Dec-86 134 829 88 356 50 60 69 Jul-03 62 9 87 62
Apr-39 14 31-Dec-87 292 132 89 373 47 60 71 Aug-03 60 88 60
May-39 2 31-Dec-88 1002 130 90 38 45 57 71 Sep-03 60 89 60
Jun-39 3 31-Dec-89 1576 1181 91 389 45 55 72 Oct-03 58 90 58
Jul-39 6 31-Dec-90 1426 899 92 393 44 53 73 Nov-03 57 91 57
Aug-39 15 31-Dec-91 1457 666 93 389 44 52 73 Dec-03 55 92 55
Sep-39 1 31-Dec-92 943 60 94 382 44 51 71 Jan-04 52 93 52
Oct-39 10 31-Dec-93 546 469 95 37 44 49 68 Feb-04 49 94 49
Nov-39 31-Dec-94 299 41 96 356 45 47 65 Mar-04 47 95 47
Dec-39 56 31-Dec-95 175 213 97 342 43 47 62 Apr-04 46 96 46
Jan-40 2 31-Dec-96 86 16 98 319 43 48 61 May-04 44 97 44
Feb-40 31-Dec-97 215 64 99 289 45 49 59 Jun-04 42 98 42
Mar-40 27 31-Dec-98 643 41 100 244 46 50 55 Jul-04 40 6 99 40
Apr-40 10 31-Dec-99 933 68 101 198 47 48 51 Aug-04 39 100 39
May-40 2 31-Dec-00 1196 145 102 166 47 44 46 Sep-04 38 101 38
Jun-40 5 31-Dec-01 111 34 103 133 47 40 44 Oct-04 36 102 36
Jul-40 2 31-Dec-02 104 45 104 106 48 37 43 Nov-04 35 103 35
Aug-40 31-Dec-03 55 431 105 93 47 33 41 Dec-04 35 104 35
Sep-40 3 31-Dec-04 40 475 106 86 46 32 39 Jan-05 35 105 35
Oct-40 3 31-Dec-05 32 422 107 85 44 30 37 Feb-05 34 106 34
Nov-40 2 31-Dec-06 20 281 108 79 43 30 36 Mar-05 34 107 34
Dec-40 56 31-Dec-07 12 101 109 75 43 28 34 Apr-05 32 108 32
Jan-41 0 81 110 72 41 27 31 May-05 29 109 29
Feb-41 0 25 111 39 23 32 Jun-05 29 110 29
Mar-41 13 0 0 112 37 21 31 Jul-05 29 7 111 29
Apr-41 1 0 14 113 36 21 33 Aug-05 28 112 28
May-41 0 5 114 35 20 34 Sep-05 26 113 26
Jun-41 0 122 115 33 20 34 Oct-05 26 114 26
Jul-41 8 0 139 116 31 20 34 Nov-05 25 115 25
Aug-41 4 0 354 117 30 19 35 Dec-05 23 116 23
Sep-41 12 0 458 118 29 18 35 Jan-06 21 117 21
Oct-41 0 41 119 28 17 34 Feb-06 19 118 19
Nov-41 3 0 301 120 27 16 33 Mar-06 17 119 17
Dec-41 3 44 239 121 26 14 32 Apr-06 17 120 17
Jan-42 0 156 122 24 13 31 May-06 17 121 17
Feb-42 0 66 123 23 11 28 Jun-06 16 122 16
Mar-42 8 0 4 124 21 9 25 Jul-06 15 2 123 15
Apr-42 2 0 18 125 19 9 23 Aug-06 16 124 16
May-42 0 85 126 19 8 22 Sep-06 16 125 16
Jun-42 0 166 127 18 77 21 Oct-06 14 126 14
Jul-42 0 363 128 17 19 Nov-06 13 127 13
Aug-42 1 0 496 129 15 18 Dec-06 12 128 12
Sep-42 1 0 642 130 12 16 Jan-07 12 129 12
Oct-42 5 0 67 131 10 15 Feb-07 12 130 12
Nov-42 2 0 709 132 9 14 Mar-07 11 131 11
Dec-42 19 478 133 8 14 Apr-07 10 132 10
Jan-43 1 0 275 134 7 15 May-07 9 133 9
Feb-43 1 0 85 135 6 16 Jun-07 8 134 8
Mar-43 1 0 132 136 5 16 Jul-07 7 0 135 7
Apr-43 0 569 137 5 15 Aug-07 6 136 6
May-43 0 1215 138 13 Sep-07 5 137 5
Jun-43 0 1383 139 12 Oct-07 5 138 5
Jul-43 0 1032 140 13 Nov-07 5 139 5
Aug-43 14 0 857 141 13 Dec-07 4 140 4
Sep-43 2 0 646 142 12 Jan-08 5 141 5
Oct-43 1 0 367 Feb-08 4 142 4
Nov-43 1 0 242
Dec-43 21 107
Jan-44 0 15
Feb-44 1 0 401
Mar-44 2 0 6105
Apr-44 2 0 985
May-44 0 1247
Jun-44 0 963
Jul-44 0 666
Aug-44 0 645
Sep-44 0 541
Oct-44 0 39
Nov-44 0 206
Dec-44 2 7 67
Jan-45 1 0 43
Feb-45 0 227
Mar-45 4 0 546
Apr-45 5 0 938
May-45 0 958
Jun-45 0 772
Jul-45 0 591
Aug-45 0 44
Sep-45 0 47
Oct-45 0 305
Nov-45 0 163
Dec-45 3 13 73
Jan-46 2 0 376
Feb-46 9 0 74
Mar-46 18 0 139
Apr-46 8 0 1112
May-46 3 0 1016
Jun-46 2 0 662
Jul-46 7 0 447
Aug-46 1 0 17
Sep-46 26 0 113
Oct-46 1 0 124
Nov-46 0 34
Dec-46 77 6
Jan-47 0 323
Feb-47 0 543
Mar-47 22 0 597
Apr-47 3 0 637
May-47 2 0 635
Jun-47 1 0 522
Jul-47 5 0 254
Aug-47 4 0 131
Sep-47 10 0 68
Oct-47 3 0 63
Nov-47 4 0 71
Dec-47 54 356
Jan-48 0 73
Feb-48 0 851
Mar-48 5 0 78
Apr-48 2 0 64
May-48 1 0 418
Jun-48 0 262
Jul-48 0 267
Aug-48 10 0 121
Sep-48 0 95
Oct-48 10 0 27
Nov-48 0 5
Dec-48 28 244
Jan-49 10 0 42
Feb-49 0 635
Mar-49 7 0 538
Apr-49 4 0 62
May-49 10 0 485
Jun-49 1 0 439
Jul-49 0 186
Aug-49 5 0 57
Sep-49 0 36
Oct-49 12 0 14
Nov-49 0 96
Dec-49 49 474
Jan-50 1 0 571
Feb-50 5 0 1039
Mar-50 4 0 806
Apr-50 1 0 636
May-50 3 0 376
Jun-50 1 0 261
Jul-50 1 0 142
Aug-50 11 0 58
Sep-50 1 0 167
Oct-50 5 0 443
Nov-50 1 0 639
Dec-50 34 69
Jan-51 1 0 778
Feb-51 3 0 649
Mar-51 1 0 357
Apr-51 2 0 212
May-51 6 0 111
Jun-51 3 0 57
Jul-51 4 0 87
Aug-51 0 361
Sep-51 16 0 797
Oct-51 6 0 1144
Nov-51 0 1096
Dec-51 2 44 888
Jan-52 0 678
Feb-52 3 0 475
Mar-52 10 0 306
Apr-52 10 0 163
May-52 6 0 96
Jun-52 3 0 332
Jul-52 0 926
Aug-52 0 1516
Sep-52 2 0 1363
Oct-52 3 0 1347
Nov-52 0 839
Dec-52 2 39 694
Jan-53 1 0 315
Feb-53 0 139
Mar-53 3 0 44
Apr-53 0 38
May-53 5 0 1417
Jun-53 0 1902
Jul-53 0 1848
Aug-53 1 0 159
Sep-53 4 0 1123
Oct-53 1 0 539
Nov-53 0 376
Dec-53 15 279
Jan-54 0 102
Feb-54 0 151
Mar-54 3 0 47
Apr-54 0 937
May-54 0 1059
Jun-54 0 1055
Jul-54 0 1045
Aug-54 0 666
Sep-54 1 0 689
Oct-54 0 38
Nov-54 0 345
Dec-54 4 155
Jan-55 3 0 126
Feb-55 0 275
Mar-55 0 925
Apr-55 3 0 1554
May-55 1 0 1546
Jun-55 0 1405
Jul-55 0 1159
Aug-55 0 666
Sep-55 1 0 459
Oct-55 0 179
Nov-55 1 0 134
Dec-55 9 292
Jan-56 0 1002
Feb-56 5 0 1576
Mar-56 4 0 1426
Apr-56 18 0 1457
May-56 15 0 943
Jun-56 1 0 546
Jul-56 0 299
Aug-56 3 0 175
Sep-56 5 0 86
Oct-56 1 0 215
Nov-56 9 0 643
Dec-56 61 933
Jan-57 4 0 1196
Feb-57 2 0 111
Mar-57 12 0 104
Apr-57 4 0
May-57 0
Jun-57 8 0
Jul-57 1 0
Aug-57 0
Sep-57 37 0
Oct-57 1 0
Nov-57 3 0
Dec-57 72
Jan-58 1 0
Feb-58 5 0
Mar-58 4 0
Apr-58 0
May-58 3 0
Jun-58 10 0
Jul-58 9 0
Aug-58 9 0
Sep-58 10 0
Oct-58 3 0
Nov-58 0
Dec-58 3 57
Jan-59 0
Feb-59 1 0
Mar-59 13 0
Apr-59 5 0
May-59 6 0
Jun-59 0
Jul-59 15 0
Aug-59 10 0
Sep-59 10 0
Oct-59 3 0
Nov-59 3 0
Dec-59 2 68
Jan-60 0
Feb-60 0
Mar-60 6 0
Apr-60 26 0
May-60 10 0
Jun-60 4 0
Jul-60 5 0
Aug-60 7 0
Sep-60 9 0
Oct-60 17 0
Nov-60 13 0
Dec-60 1 98
Jan-61 0
Feb-61 3 0
Mar-61 2 0
Apr-61 4 0
May-61 0
Jun-61 2 0
Jul-61 12 0
Aug-61 0
Sep-61 1 0
Oct-61 8 0
Nov-61 0
Dec-61 2 34
Jan-62 0
Feb-62 0
Mar-62 0
Apr-62 0
May-62 0
Jun-62 0
Jul-62 0
Aug-62 0
Sep-62 0
Oct-62 2 0
Nov-62 0
Dec-62 1 3
Jan-63 0
Feb-63 0
Mar-63 0
Apr-63 0
May-63 0
Jun-63 1 0
Jul-63 0
Aug-63 2 0
Sep-63 11 0
Oct-63 5 0
Nov-63 0
Dec-63 19
Jan-64 1 0
Feb-64 0
Mar-64 0
Apr-64 1 0
May-64 0
Jun-64 1 0
Jul-64 0
Aug-64 0
Sep-64 2 0
Oct-64 0
Nov-64 0
Dec-64 5
Jan-65 0
Feb-65 0
Mar-65 0
Apr-65 2 0
May-65 0
Jun-65 2 0
Jul-65 0
Aug-65 0
Sep-65 0
Oct-65 0
Nov-65 0
Dec-65 4
Jan-66 0
Feb-66 0
Mar-66 6 0
Apr-66 0
May-66 4 0
Jun-66 0
Jul-66 0
Aug-66 3 0
Sep-66 5 0
Oct-66 0
Nov-66 0
Dec-66 1 19
Jan-67 3 0
Feb-67 2 0
Mar-67 0
Apr-67 0
May-67 16 0
Jun-67 3 0
Jul-67 0
Aug-67 0
Sep-67 3 0
Oct-67 0
Nov-67 0
Dec-67 27
Jan-68 0
Feb-68 0
Mar-68 0
Apr-68 1 0
May-68 2 0
Jun-68 4 0
Jul-68 0
Aug-68 0
Sep-68 0
Oct-68 4 0
Nov-68 7 0
Dec-68 18
Jan-69 0
Feb-69 2 0
Mar-69 5 0
Apr-69 0
May-69 2 0
Jun-69 0
Jul-69 0
Aug-69 0
Sep-69 1 0
Oct-69 0
Nov-69 0
Dec-69 10
Jan-70 0
Feb-70 0
Mar-70 4 0
Apr-70 4 0
May-70 1 0
Jun-70 0
Jul-70 7 0
Aug-70 4 0
Sep-70 0
Oct-70 1 0
Nov-70 1 0
Dec-70 1 23
Jan-71 0
Feb-71 0
Mar-71 0
Apr-71 2 0
May-71 1 0
Jun-71 0
Jul-71 0
Aug-71 0
Sep-71 1 0
Oct-71 0
Nov-71 0
Dec-71 2 6
Jan-72 0
Feb-72 0
Mar-72 1 0
Apr-72 0
May-72 1 0
Jun-72 7 0
Jul-72 0
Aug-72 18 0
Sep-72 4 0
Oct-72 1 0
Nov-72 3 0
Dec-72 1 36
Jan-73 0
Feb-73 2 0
Mar-73 5 0
Apr-73 6 0
May-73 3 0
Jun-73 0
Jul-73 0
Aug-73 0
Sep-73 3 0
Oct-73 3 0
Nov-73 0
Dec-73 22
Jan-74 0
Feb-74 0
Mar-74 3 0
Apr-74 0
May-74 0
Jun-74 0
Jul-74 7 0
Aug-74 0
Sep-74 6 0
Oct-74 4 0
Nov-74 1 0
Dec-74 21
Jan-75 1 0
Feb-75 0
Mar-75 3 0
Apr-75 0
May-75 0
Jun-75 0
Jul-75 1 0
Aug-75 0
Sep-75 0
Oct-75 1 0
Nov-75 1 0
Dec-75 7
Jan-76 3 0
Feb-76 0
Mar-76 6 0
Apr-76 3 0
May-76 6 0
Jun-76 1 0
Jul-76 0
Aug-76 0
Sep-76 0
Oct-76 0
Nov-76 0
Dec-76 19
Jan-77 0
Feb-77 0
Mar-77 0
Apr-77 2 0
May-77 0
Jun-77 0
Jul-77 2 0
Aug-77 0
Sep-77 3 0
Oct-77 3 0
Nov-77 0
Dec-77 2 12
Jan-78 2 0
Feb-78 2 0
Mar-78 2 0
Apr-78 6 0
May-78 17 0
Jun-78 5 0
Jul-78 4 0
Aug-78 4 0
Sep-78 5 0
Oct-78 0
Nov-78 1 0
Dec-78 48
Jan-79 0
Feb-79 1 0
Mar-79 4 0
Apr-79 9 0
May-79 1 0
Jun-79 1 0
Jul-79 0
Aug-79 7 0
Sep-79 1 0
Oct-79 0
Nov-79 0
Dec-79 24
Jan-80 0
Feb-80 1 0
Mar-80 0
Apr-80 0
May-80 0
Jun-80 0
Jul-80 2 0
Aug-80 0
Sep-80 0
Oct-80 0
Nov-80 0
Dec-80 3 6
Jan-81 0
Feb-81 1 0
Mar-81 3 0
Apr-81 7 0
May-81 6 0
Jun-81 1 0
Jul-81 7 0
Aug-81 0
Sep-81 0
Oct-81 8 0
Nov-81 1 0
Dec-81 34
Jan-82 0
Feb-82 2 0
Mar-82 6 0
Apr-82 2 0
May-82 0
Jun-82 2 0
Jul-82 13 0
Aug-82 5 0
Sep-82 23 0
Oct-82 0
Nov-82 5 0
Dec-82 3 61
Jan-83 3 0
Feb-83 9 0
Mar-83 4 0
Apr-83 1 0
May-83 5 0
Jun-83 2 0
Jul-83 2 0
Aug-83 2 0
Sep-83 10 0
Oct-83 1 0
Nov-83 1 0
Dec-83 40
Jan-84 0
Feb-84 3 0
Mar-84 2 0
Apr-84 7 0
May-84 0
Jun-84 1 0
Jul-84 2 0
Aug-84 2 0
Sep-84 10 0
Oct-84 3 0
Nov-84 5 0
Dec-84 35
Jan-85 0
Feb-85 3 0
Mar-85 0
Apr-85 8 0
May-85 0
Jun-85 0
Jul-85 1 0
Aug-85 0
Sep-85 0
Oct-85 1 0
Nov-85 3 0
Dec-85 16
Jan-86 0
Feb-86 13 0
Mar-86 0
Apr-86 0
May-86 3 0
Jun-86 0
Jul-86 2 0
Aug-86 0
Sep-86 2 0
Oct-86 1 0
Nov-86 1 0
Dec-86 22
Jan-87 0
Feb-87 0
Mar-87 0
Apr-87 0
May-87 0
Jun-87 0
Jul-87 2 0
Aug-87 0
Sep-87 0
Oct-87 0
Nov-87 0
Dec-87 2
Jan-88 3 0
Feb-88 4 0
Mar-88 2 0
Apr-88 2 0
May-88 5 0
Jun-88 0
Jul-88 0
Aug-88 0
Sep-88 0
Oct-88 2 0
Nov-88 0
Dec-88 18
Jan-89 1 0
Feb-89 0
Mar-89 17 0
Apr-89 2 0
May-89 2 0
Jun-89 2 0
Jul-89 0
Aug-89 8 0
Sep-89 5 0
Oct-89 11 0
Nov-89 7 0
Dec-89 2 57
Jan-90 0
Feb-90 3 0
Mar-90 5 0
Apr-90 11 0
May-90 2 0
Jun-90 6 0
Jul-90 6 0
Aug-90 3 0
Sep-90 1 0
Oct-90 0
Nov-90 1 0
Dec-90 38
Jan-91 0
Feb-91 0
Mar-91 15 0
Apr-91 2 0
May-91 1 0
Jun-91 33 0
Jul-91 14 0
Aug-91 8 0
Sep-91 1 0
Oct-91 5 0
Nov-91 6 0
Dec-91 85
Jan-92 0
Feb-92 15 0
Mar-92 0
Apr-92 0
May-92 9 0
Jun-92 1 0
Jul-92 0
Aug-92 3 0
Sep-92 11 0
Oct-92 0
Nov-92 0
Dec-92 39
Jan-93 0
Feb-93 1 0
Mar-93 4 0
Apr-93 4 0
May-93 0
Jun-93 1 0
Jul-93 0
Aug-93 2 0
Sep-93 2 0
Oct-93 1 0
Nov-93 1 0
Dec-93 1 17
Jan-94 0
Feb-94 6 0
Mar-94 1 0
Apr-94 9 0
May-94 5 0
Jun-94 0
Jul-94 0
Aug-94 0
Sep-94 0
Oct-94 6 0
Nov-94 0
Dec-94 27
Jan-95 0
Feb-95 0
Mar-95 0
Apr-95 3 0
May-95 0
Jun-95 0
Jul-95 0
Aug-95 0
Sep-95 1 0
Oct-95 4 0
Nov-95 0
Dec-95 8
Jan-96 0
Feb-96 0
Mar-96 0
Apr-96 1 0
May-96 0
Jun-96 0
Jul-96 0
Aug-96 0
Sep-96 0
Oct-96 2 0
Nov-96 0
Dec-96 3
Jan-97 0
Feb-97 1 0
Mar-97 0
Apr-97 1 0
May-97 2 0
Jun-97 0
Jul-97 0
Aug-97 0
Sep-97 0
Oct-97 1 0
Nov-97 3 0
Dec-97 8
Jan-98 0
Feb-98 1 0
Mar-98 1 0
Apr-98 0
May-98 5 0
Jun-98 0
Jul-98 0
Aug-98 9 0
Sep-98 4 0
Oct-98 4 0
Nov-98 1 0
Dec-98 4 29
Jan-99 1 0
Feb-99 3 0
Mar-99 0
Apr-99 1 0
May-99 0
Jun-99 0
Jul-99 1 0
Aug-99 0
Sep-99 1 0
Oct-99 3 0
Nov-99 0
Dec-99 10
Jan-00 0
Feb-00 1 0
Mar-00 0
Apr-00 4 0
May-00 3 0
Jun-00 1 0
Jul-00 8 0
Aug-00 5 0
Sep-00 2 0
Oct-00 7 0
Nov-00 4 0
Dec-00 35
Jan-01 0
Feb-01 0
Mar-01 10 0
Apr-01 9 0
May-01 0
Jun-01 0
Jul-01 0
Aug-01 1 0
Sep-01 1 0
Oct-01 11 0
Nov-01 8 0
Dec-01 40
Jan-02 0
Feb-02 0
Mar-02 0
Apr-02 7 0
May-02 5 0
Jun-02 0
Jul-02 0
Aug-02 0
Sep-02 4 0
Oct-02 6 0
Nov-02 1 0
Dec-02 23
Jan-03 0
Feb-03 0
Mar-03 0
Apr-03 0
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
Page 2: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Overview

bull What is ldquoSpace Weatherrdquobull Space Weather Phenomena

Solar Flares Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms

bull Impacts to Aviationbull Services in ICAO

Magnetosphere

Energetic Charged Particles

ElectromagneticRadiation

What is space weatherSpace weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in

the space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space and groundbased technological systems as

well as endanger human health

Ionosphere

Presenter
Presentation Notes
At the Earthrsquos surface the atmosphere and the geomagnetic field provide ample protection from most of the solar electromagnetic radiation and charged particles The protective boundary of the Earthrsquos magnetic field is highly reactive to the onslaught of energy and pressure originating from the sun However while the sunrsquos harmful radiation and particles donrsquot generally reach the surface in sufficient quantities to have direct harmful effects their secondary effects are often felt The Earthrsquos magnetosphere redistributes its particle populations often sending a rush of energetic particles along magnetic field lines into the atmosphere over the polar caps and creating the swirling red green and white auroras Other particles pour into the Van Allen radiation belts and encircle the Earth in a ring of electric current The Earthrsquos magnetic field itself can distort to such an extent that compasses at the surface swing 10 degrees away from the magnetic pole The ionosphere (80-1000 km above the Earthrsquos surface) changes in ways that affect radio transmissions absorbing some radio frequencies distorting others and creating electric currents that affect systems on the ground13

4

The Sun at Solar Maximum

Sunspots and the Solar Cycle

~27 day full rotation

The Sun Today

Solar Cycle Updatebull Cycle 23 began in May 1996 bull Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120bull Solar Minimum in December 2008bull Solar Cycle 24 Underway

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Smoo

thed

Sun

spot

Num

ber

Sunspot Solar Cycles

2317161514 21201918 22

Chart1

23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12

Sheet1

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
1 Cycle 2 Cycle 10 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 Cycle 23 Cycle 23
Jan-32 1 31-Dec-32 4 111 31-Dec-32 111 277 31-Dec-00 95 1-Jan-00 5 2 112 32 4 10 May-96 8 1 8
Feb-32 31-Dec-33 3 57 31-Dec-33 57 312 31-Dec-01 27 11 3 121 33 4 10 Jun-96 9 2 9
Mar-32 31-Dec-34 0 87 31-Dec-34 87 252 31-Dec-02 5 16 4 135 36 5 11 Jul-96 8 0 3 8
Apr-32 31-Dec-35 0 361 31-Dec-35 361 Oct-60 258 31-Dec-03 244 23 5 145 39 5 12 Aug-96 8 4 8
May-32 2 31-Dec-36 5 797 31-Dec-36 797 Nov-60 293 31-Dec-04 42 36 6 159 39 6 12 Sep-96 8 5 8
Jun-32 31-Dec-37 25 1144 31-Dec-37 1144 Mar-89 285 31-Dec-05 635 58 7 172 38 6 13 Oct-96 9 6 9
Jul-32 1 31-Dec-38 46 1096 31-Dec-38 1096 Mar-60 251 31-Dec-06 538 29 8 186 41 7 14 Nov-96 10 7 10
Aug-32 31-Dec-39 56 888 31-Dec-39 888 May-67 241 31-Dec-07 62 20 9 206 49 7 15 Dec-96 10 8 10
Sep-32 31-Dec-40 56 678 Mar-40 8529 8529 Jul-82 229 31-Dec-08 485 10 10 229 55 7 15 Jan-97 11 9 11
Oct-32 31-Dec-41 44 475 31-Dec-40 678 Feb-86 228 31-Dec-09 439 8 11 26 58 8 16 Feb-97 11 10 11
Nov-32 31-Dec-42 19 306 Sep-41 5440 5440 Mar-40 226 31-Dec-10 186 3 12 293 62 9 16 Mar-97 14 11 14
Dec-32 4 31-Dec-43 21 163 31-Dec-41 475 223 31-Dec-11 57 0 13 329 76 11 17 Apr-97 17 12 17
Jan-33 31-Dec-44 7 96 31-Dec-42 306 222 31-Dec-12 36 0 14 364 92 12 20 May-97 18 13 18
Feb-33 31-Dec-45 13 332 31-Dec-43 163 221 31-Dec-13 14 2 15 389 104 13 22 Jun-97 20 14 20
Mar-33 31-Dec-46 77 926 31-Dec-44 96 216 31-Dec-14 96 11 16 415 116 13 25 Jul-97 23 2 15 23
Apr-33 31-Dec-47 54 1516 31-Dec-45 332 215 31-Dec-15 474 27 17 431 137 15 28 Aug-97 25 16 25
May-33 1 31-Dec-48 28 1363 31-Dec-46 926 214 31-Dec-16 571 47 18 437 167 18 31 Sep-97 28 17 28
Jun-33 31-Dec-49 49 1347 31-Dec-47 1516 212 31-Dec-17 1039 63 19 461 192 20 35 Oct-97 32 18 32
Jul-33 31-Dec-50 34 839 31-Dec-48 1363 212 31-Dec-18 806 60 20 499 215 22 37 Nov-97 35 19 35
Aug-33 1 31-Dec-51 44 694 31-Dec-49 1347 203 31-Dec-19 636 39 21 53 238 26 41 Dec-97 39 20 39
Sep-33 1 31-Dec-52 39 315 31-Dec-50 839 201 31-Dec-20 376 28 22 58 26 30 45 Jan-98 44 21 44
Oct-33 31-Dec-53 15 139 31-Dec-51 694 199 31-Dec-21 261 26 23 61 293 34 50 Feb-98 49 22 49
Nov-33 31-Dec-54 4 44 31-Dec-52 315 199 31-Dec-22 142 22 24 64 326 38 57 Mar-98 54 23 54
Dec-33 3 31-Dec-55 9 38 31-Dec-53 139 196 31-Dec-23 58 11 25 67 341 42 63 Apr-98 57 24 57
Jan-34 31-Dec-56 61 1417 31-Dec-54 44 196 31-Dec-24 167 21 26 71 36 47 68 May-98 59 25 59
Feb-34 31-Dec-57 72 1902 31-Dec-55 38 195 31-Dec-25 443 40 27 72 386 51 70 Jun-98 63 26 63
Mar-34 31-Dec-58 57 1848 31-Dec-56 1417 193 31-Dec-26 639 78 28 72 42 55 73 Jul-98 66 8 27 66
Apr-34 31-Dec-59 68 159 31-Dec-57 1902 192 31-Dec-27 69 122 29 75 45 57 75 Aug-98 68 28 68
May-34 31-Dec-60 98 1123 31-Dec-58 1848 186 31-Dec-28 778 103 30 77 49 59 79 Sep-98 70 29 70
Jun-34 31-Dec-61 34 539 Jul-59 17201 17201 186 31-Dec-29 649 73 31 77 52 62 82 Oct-98 71 30 71
Jul-34 31-Dec-62 3 376 31-Dec-59 159 185 31-Dec-30 357 47 32 78 54 66 85 Nov-98 73 31 73
Aug-34 31-Dec-63 19 279 Oct-60 12433 12433 183 31-Dec-31 212 35 33 81 57 69 88 Dec-98 78 32 78
Sep-34 31-Dec-64 5 102 Nov-60 12049 12049 181 31-Dec-32 111 11 34 86 61 72 91 Jan-99 83 33 83
Oct-34 31-Dec-65 4 151 31-Dec-60 1123 181 31-Dec-33 57 5 35 92 64 77 94 Feb-99 85 34 85
Nov-34 31-Dec-66 19 47 31-Dec-61 539 179 31-Dec-34 87 16 36 84 68 83 95 Mar-99 84 35 84
Dec-34 0 31-Dec-67 27 937 31-Dec-62 376 174 31-Dec-35 361 34 37 104 72 88 95 Apr-99 86 36 86
Jan-35 31-Dec-68 18 1059 31-Dec-63 279 173 31-Dec-36 797 70 38 106 76 90 95 May-99 91 37 91
Feb-35 31-Dec-69 10 1055 31-Dec-64 102 173 31-Dec-37 1144 81 39 107 79 92 97 Jun-99 93 38 93
Mar-35 31-Dec-70 23 1045 31-Dec-65 151 171 31-Dec-38 1096 111 40 112 83 96 101 Jul-99 94 5 39 94
Apr-35 31-Dec-71 6 666 31-Dec-66 47 168 31-Dec-39 888 101 41 116 86 101 102 Aug-99 98 40 98
May-35 31-Dec-72 36 689 31-Dec-67 937 31-Dec-40 678 73 42 115 88 108 112 Sep-99 102 41 102
Jun-35 31-Dec-73 22 38 31-Dec-68 1059 31-Dec-41 475 40 43 113 91 114 105 Oct-99 108 42 108
Jul-35 31-Dec-74 21 345 31-Dec-69 1055 31-Dec-42 306 20 44 112 93 117 107 Nov-99 111 43 111
Aug-35 31-Dec-75 7 155 31-Dec-70 1045 31-Dec-43 163 16 45 111 94 119 108 Dec-99 111 44 111
Sep-35 31-Dec-76 19 126 31-Dec-71 666 31-Dec-44 96 5 46 111 94 119 107 Jan-00 113 45 113
Oct-35 31-Dec-77 12 275 31-Dec-72 689 31-Dec-45 332 11 47 109 94 116 105 Feb-00 117 46 117
Nov-35 31-Dec-78 48 925 31-Dec-73 38 31-Dec-46 926 22 48 105 94 113 105 Mar-00 120 47 120
Dec-35 0 31-Dec-79 24 1554 31-Dec-74 345 31-Dec-47 1516 40 49 101 94 111 107 Apr-00 121 48 121
Jan-36 31-Dec-80 6 1546 31-Dec-75 155 31-Dec-48 1363 60 50 101 96 111 111 May-00 119 49 119
Feb-36 31-Dec-81 34 1405 31-Dec-76 126 31-Dec-49 1347 80 51 98 97 111 111 Jun-00 119 50 119
Mar-36 31-Dec-82 61 1159 31-Dec-77 275 31-Dec-50 839 83 52 91 98 111 110 Jul-00 120 13 51 120
Apr-36 1 31-Dec-83 40 666 31-Dec-78 925 31-Dec-51 694 477 53 86 97 110 110 Aug-00 119 52 119
May-36 31-Dec-84 35 459 31-Dec-79 1554 31-Dec-52 315 478 54 85 96 110 110 Sep-00 116 53 116
Jun-36 2 31-Dec-85 16 179 31-Dec-80 1546 31-Dec-53 139 307 55 89 95 110 108 Oct-00 115 54 115
Jul-36 31-Dec-86 22 134 31-Dec-81 1405 31-Dec-54 44 122 56 94 95 108 106 Nov-00 113 55 113
Aug-36 31-Dec-87 2 292 31-Dec-82 1159 31-Dec-55 38 96 57 94 95 106 106 Dec-00 112 56 112
Sep-36 31-Dec-88 18 1002 31-Dec-83 666 31-Dec-56 1417 102 58 89 94 107 106 Jan-01 109 57 109
Oct-36 31-Dec-89 57 1576 31-Dec-84 459 31-Dec-57 1902 324 59 86 93 109 106 Feb-01 104 58 107
Nov-36 2 31-Dec-90 38 1426 31-Dec-85 179 31-Dec-58 1848 476 60 85 95 109 107 Mar-01 105 59 105
Dec-36 5 31-Dec-91 85 1457 31-Dec-86 134 31-Dec-59 159 54 61 84 94 106 104 Apr-01 108 60 108
Jan-37 31-Dec-92 39 943 31-Dec-87 292 31-Dec-60 1123 629 62 82 91 104 105 May-01 109 61 109
Feb-37 1 31-Dec-93 17 546 31-Dec-88 1002 31-Dec-61 539 859 63 84 88 103 105 Jun-01 110 62 110
Mar-37 1 31-Dec-94 27 299 31-Dec-89 1576 31-Dec-62 376 612 64 89 96 103 105 Jul-01 112 22 63 112
Apr-37 13 31-Dec-95 8 175 31-Dec-90 1426 31-Dec-63 279 45 65 90 85 103 106 Aug-01 114 64 114
May-37 2 31-Dec-96 3 86 31-Dec-91 1457 31-Dec-64 102 364 66 905 83 100 106 Sep-01 114 65 114
Jun-37 31-Dec-97 8 215 31-Dec-92 943 31-Dec-65 151 209 67 869 80 97 106 Oct-01 114 66 114
Jul-37 31-Dec-98 29 643 31-Dec-93 546 31-Dec-66 47 114 68 795 78 97 106 Nov-01 116 67 116
Aug-37 2 31-Dec-99 10 933 31-Dec-94 299 31-Dec-67 937 378 69 773 77 98 107 Dec-01 115 68 115
Sep-37 1 31-Dec-00 35 1196 31-Dec-95 175 31-Dec-68 1059 698 70 776 77 95 105 Jan-02 114 69 114
Oct-37 5 31-Dec-01 40 111 31-Dec-96 86 31-Dec-69 1055 1061 71 754 74 91 104 Feb-02 115 70 115
Nov-37 31-Dec-02 23 104 31-Dec-97 215 31-Dec-70 1045 108 72 728 70 88 101 Mar-02 113 71 113
Dec-37 25 31-Dec-98 643 31-Dec-71 666 816 73 707 78 86 97 Apr-02 111 72 111
Jan-38 14 31-Dec-99 933 31-Dec-72 689 665 74 678 68 86 94 May-02 109 73 109
Feb-38 1 31-Dec-00 1196 31-Dec-73 38 348 75 646 68 84 89 Jun-02 106 74 106
Mar-38 31-Dec-01 111 31-Dec-74 345 306 76 601 66 80 84 Jul-02 103 19 75 103
Apr-38 6 31-Dec-02 104 31-Dec-75 155 7 77 583 65 76 80 Aug-02 99 76 99
May-38 7 31-Dec-76 126 198 78 567 64 74 78 Sep-02 95 77 95
Jun-38 31-Dec-77 275 926 79 543 63 73 74 Oct-02 91 78 91
Jul-38 2 31-Dec-78 925 1544 80 533 61 71 71 Nov-02 85 79 85
Aug-38 2 31-Dec-79 1554 1259 81 50 58 68 68 Dec-02 82 80 82
Sep-38 8 31-Dec-80 1546 848 82 461 58 66 67 Jan-03 81 81 81
Oct-38 6 31-Dec-81 1405 681 83 435 58 67 65 Feb-03 78 82 78
Nov-38 31-Dec-82 1159 385 84 404 59 68 65 Mar-03 74 83 74
Dec-38 46 31-Dec-83 666 228 85 374 58 67 66 Apr-03 70 84 70
Jan-39 31-Dec-84 459 102 86 356 55 65 66 May-03 68 85 68
Feb-39 4 31-Dec-85 179 241 87 345 52 62 67 Jun-03 65 86 65
Mar-39 1 31-Dec-86 134 829 88 356 50 60 69 Jul-03 62 9 87 62
Apr-39 14 31-Dec-87 292 132 89 373 47 60 71 Aug-03 60 88 60
May-39 2 31-Dec-88 1002 130 90 38 45 57 71 Sep-03 60 89 60
Jun-39 3 31-Dec-89 1576 1181 91 389 45 55 72 Oct-03 58 90 58
Jul-39 6 31-Dec-90 1426 899 92 393 44 53 73 Nov-03 57 91 57
Aug-39 15 31-Dec-91 1457 666 93 389 44 52 73 Dec-03 55 92 55
Sep-39 1 31-Dec-92 943 60 94 382 44 51 71 Jan-04 52 93 52
Oct-39 10 31-Dec-93 546 469 95 37 44 49 68 Feb-04 49 94 49
Nov-39 31-Dec-94 299 41 96 356 45 47 65 Mar-04 47 95 47
Dec-39 56 31-Dec-95 175 213 97 342 43 47 62 Apr-04 46 96 46
Jan-40 2 31-Dec-96 86 16 98 319 43 48 61 May-04 44 97 44
Feb-40 31-Dec-97 215 64 99 289 45 49 59 Jun-04 42 98 42
Mar-40 27 31-Dec-98 643 41 100 244 46 50 55 Jul-04 40 6 99 40
Apr-40 10 31-Dec-99 933 68 101 198 47 48 51 Aug-04 39 100 39
May-40 2 31-Dec-00 1196 145 102 166 47 44 46 Sep-04 38 101 38
Jun-40 5 31-Dec-01 111 34 103 133 47 40 44 Oct-04 36 102 36
Jul-40 2 31-Dec-02 104 45 104 106 48 37 43 Nov-04 35 103 35
Aug-40 31-Dec-03 55 431 105 93 47 33 41 Dec-04 35 104 35
Sep-40 3 31-Dec-04 40 475 106 86 46 32 39 Jan-05 35 105 35
Oct-40 3 31-Dec-05 32 422 107 85 44 30 37 Feb-05 34 106 34
Nov-40 2 31-Dec-06 20 281 108 79 43 30 36 Mar-05 34 107 34
Dec-40 56 31-Dec-07 12 101 109 75 43 28 34 Apr-05 32 108 32
Jan-41 0 81 110 72 41 27 31 May-05 29 109 29
Feb-41 0 25 111 39 23 32 Jun-05 29 110 29
Mar-41 13 0 0 112 37 21 31 Jul-05 29 7 111 29
Apr-41 1 0 14 113 36 21 33 Aug-05 28 112 28
May-41 0 5 114 35 20 34 Sep-05 26 113 26
Jun-41 0 122 115 33 20 34 Oct-05 26 114 26
Jul-41 8 0 139 116 31 20 34 Nov-05 25 115 25
Aug-41 4 0 354 117 30 19 35 Dec-05 23 116 23
Sep-41 12 0 458 118 29 18 35 Jan-06 21 117 21
Oct-41 0 41 119 28 17 34 Feb-06 19 118 19
Nov-41 3 0 301 120 27 16 33 Mar-06 17 119 17
Dec-41 3 44 239 121 26 14 32 Apr-06 17 120 17
Jan-42 0 156 122 24 13 31 May-06 17 121 17
Feb-42 0 66 123 23 11 28 Jun-06 16 122 16
Mar-42 8 0 4 124 21 9 25 Jul-06 15 2 123 15
Apr-42 2 0 18 125 19 9 23 Aug-06 16 124 16
May-42 0 85 126 19 8 22 Sep-06 16 125 16
Jun-42 0 166 127 18 77 21 Oct-06 14 126 14
Jul-42 0 363 128 17 19 Nov-06 13 127 13
Aug-42 1 0 496 129 15 18 Dec-06 12 128 12
Sep-42 1 0 642 130 12 16 Jan-07 12 129 12
Oct-42 5 0 67 131 10 15 Feb-07 12 130 12
Nov-42 2 0 709 132 9 14 Mar-07 11 131 11
Dec-42 19 478 133 8 14 Apr-07 10 132 10
Jan-43 1 0 275 134 7 15 May-07 9 133 9
Feb-43 1 0 85 135 6 16 Jun-07 8 134 8
Mar-43 1 0 132 136 5 16 Jul-07 7 0 135 7
Apr-43 0 569 137 5 15 Aug-07 6 136 6
May-43 0 1215 138 13 Sep-07 5 137 5
Jun-43 0 1383 139 12 Oct-07 5 138 5
Jul-43 0 1032 140 13 Nov-07 5 139 5
Aug-43 14 0 857 141 13 Dec-07 4 140 4
Sep-43 2 0 646 142 12 Jan-08 5 141 5
Oct-43 1 0 367 Feb-08 4 142 4
Nov-43 1 0 242
Dec-43 21 107
Jan-44 0 15
Feb-44 1 0 401
Mar-44 2 0 6105
Apr-44 2 0 985
May-44 0 1247
Jun-44 0 963
Jul-44 0 666
Aug-44 0 645
Sep-44 0 541
Oct-44 0 39
Nov-44 0 206
Dec-44 2 7 67
Jan-45 1 0 43
Feb-45 0 227
Mar-45 4 0 546
Apr-45 5 0 938
May-45 0 958
Jun-45 0 772
Jul-45 0 591
Aug-45 0 44
Sep-45 0 47
Oct-45 0 305
Nov-45 0 163
Dec-45 3 13 73
Jan-46 2 0 376
Feb-46 9 0 74
Mar-46 18 0 139
Apr-46 8 0 1112
May-46 3 0 1016
Jun-46 2 0 662
Jul-46 7 0 447
Aug-46 1 0 17
Sep-46 26 0 113
Oct-46 1 0 124
Nov-46 0 34
Dec-46 77 6
Jan-47 0 323
Feb-47 0 543
Mar-47 22 0 597
Apr-47 3 0 637
May-47 2 0 635
Jun-47 1 0 522
Jul-47 5 0 254
Aug-47 4 0 131
Sep-47 10 0 68
Oct-47 3 0 63
Nov-47 4 0 71
Dec-47 54 356
Jan-48 0 73
Feb-48 0 851
Mar-48 5 0 78
Apr-48 2 0 64
May-48 1 0 418
Jun-48 0 262
Jul-48 0 267
Aug-48 10 0 121
Sep-48 0 95
Oct-48 10 0 27
Nov-48 0 5
Dec-48 28 244
Jan-49 10 0 42
Feb-49 0 635
Mar-49 7 0 538
Apr-49 4 0 62
May-49 10 0 485
Jun-49 1 0 439
Jul-49 0 186
Aug-49 5 0 57
Sep-49 0 36
Oct-49 12 0 14
Nov-49 0 96
Dec-49 49 474
Jan-50 1 0 571
Feb-50 5 0 1039
Mar-50 4 0 806
Apr-50 1 0 636
May-50 3 0 376
Jun-50 1 0 261
Jul-50 1 0 142
Aug-50 11 0 58
Sep-50 1 0 167
Oct-50 5 0 443
Nov-50 1 0 639
Dec-50 34 69
Jan-51 1 0 778
Feb-51 3 0 649
Mar-51 1 0 357
Apr-51 2 0 212
May-51 6 0 111
Jun-51 3 0 57
Jul-51 4 0 87
Aug-51 0 361
Sep-51 16 0 797
Oct-51 6 0 1144
Nov-51 0 1096
Dec-51 2 44 888
Jan-52 0 678
Feb-52 3 0 475
Mar-52 10 0 306
Apr-52 10 0 163
May-52 6 0 96
Jun-52 3 0 332
Jul-52 0 926
Aug-52 0 1516
Sep-52 2 0 1363
Oct-52 3 0 1347
Nov-52 0 839
Dec-52 2 39 694
Jan-53 1 0 315
Feb-53 0 139
Mar-53 3 0 44
Apr-53 0 38
May-53 5 0 1417
Jun-53 0 1902
Jul-53 0 1848
Aug-53 1 0 159
Sep-53 4 0 1123
Oct-53 1 0 539
Nov-53 0 376
Dec-53 15 279
Jan-54 0 102
Feb-54 0 151
Mar-54 3 0 47
Apr-54 0 937
May-54 0 1059
Jun-54 0 1055
Jul-54 0 1045
Aug-54 0 666
Sep-54 1 0 689
Oct-54 0 38
Nov-54 0 345
Dec-54 4 155
Jan-55 3 0 126
Feb-55 0 275
Mar-55 0 925
Apr-55 3 0 1554
May-55 1 0 1546
Jun-55 0 1405
Jul-55 0 1159
Aug-55 0 666
Sep-55 1 0 459
Oct-55 0 179
Nov-55 1 0 134
Dec-55 9 292
Jan-56 0 1002
Feb-56 5 0 1576
Mar-56 4 0 1426
Apr-56 18 0 1457
May-56 15 0 943
Jun-56 1 0 546
Jul-56 0 299
Aug-56 3 0 175
Sep-56 5 0 86
Oct-56 1 0 215
Nov-56 9 0 643
Dec-56 61 933
Jan-57 4 0 1196
Feb-57 2 0 111
Mar-57 12 0 104
Apr-57 4 0
May-57 0
Jun-57 8 0
Jul-57 1 0
Aug-57 0
Sep-57 37 0
Oct-57 1 0
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Dec-57 72
Jan-58 1 0
Feb-58 5 0
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Apr-58 0
May-58 3 0
Jun-58 10 0
Jul-58 9 0
Aug-58 9 0
Sep-58 10 0
Oct-58 3 0
Nov-58 0
Dec-58 3 57
Jan-59 0
Feb-59 1 0
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Apr-59 5 0
May-59 6 0
Jun-59 0
Jul-59 15 0
Aug-59 10 0
Sep-59 10 0
Oct-59 3 0
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Dec-59 2 68
Jan-60 0
Feb-60 0
Mar-60 6 0
Apr-60 26 0
May-60 10 0
Jun-60 4 0
Jul-60 5 0
Aug-60 7 0
Sep-60 9 0
Oct-60 17 0
Nov-60 13 0
Dec-60 1 98
Jan-61 0
Feb-61 3 0
Mar-61 2 0
Apr-61 4 0
May-61 0
Jun-61 2 0
Jul-61 12 0
Aug-61 0
Sep-61 1 0
Oct-61 8 0
Nov-61 0
Dec-61 2 34
Jan-62 0
Feb-62 0
Mar-62 0
Apr-62 0
May-62 0
Jun-62 0
Jul-62 0
Aug-62 0
Sep-62 0
Oct-62 2 0
Nov-62 0
Dec-62 1 3
Jan-63 0
Feb-63 0
Mar-63 0
Apr-63 0
May-63 0
Jun-63 1 0
Jul-63 0
Aug-63 2 0
Sep-63 11 0
Oct-63 5 0
Nov-63 0
Dec-63 19
Jan-64 1 0
Feb-64 0
Mar-64 0
Apr-64 1 0
May-64 0
Jun-64 1 0
Jul-64 0
Aug-64 0
Sep-64 2 0
Oct-64 0
Nov-64 0
Dec-64 5
Jan-65 0
Feb-65 0
Mar-65 0
Apr-65 2 0
May-65 0
Jun-65 2 0
Jul-65 0
Aug-65 0
Sep-65 0
Oct-65 0
Nov-65 0
Dec-65 4
Jan-66 0
Feb-66 0
Mar-66 6 0
Apr-66 0
May-66 4 0
Jun-66 0
Jul-66 0
Aug-66 3 0
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Oct-66 0
Nov-66 0
Dec-66 1 19
Jan-67 3 0
Feb-67 2 0
Mar-67 0
Apr-67 0
May-67 16 0
Jun-67 3 0
Jul-67 0
Aug-67 0
Sep-67 3 0
Oct-67 0
Nov-67 0
Dec-67 27
Jan-68 0
Feb-68 0
Mar-68 0
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Jul-68 0
Aug-68 0
Sep-68 0
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Dec-68 18
Jan-69 0
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Apr-69 0
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Jul-69 0
Aug-69 0
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Jan-70 0
Feb-70 0
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Jan-71 0
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Jan-72 0
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Jan-73 0
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Jan-74 0
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Jan-78 2 0
Feb-78 2 0
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Dec-78 48
Jan-79 0
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Jan-80 0
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May-80 0
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Jan-81 0
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May-81 6 0
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Aug-81 0
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Oct-81 8 0
Nov-81 1 0
Dec-81 34
Jan-82 0
Feb-82 2 0
Mar-82 6 0
Apr-82 2 0
May-82 0
Jun-82 2 0
Jul-82 13 0
Aug-82 5 0
Sep-82 23 0
Oct-82 0
Nov-82 5 0
Dec-82 3 61
Jan-83 3 0
Feb-83 9 0
Mar-83 4 0
Apr-83 1 0
May-83 5 0
Jun-83 2 0
Jul-83 2 0
Aug-83 2 0
Sep-83 10 0
Oct-83 1 0
Nov-83 1 0
Dec-83 40
Jan-84 0
Feb-84 3 0
Mar-84 2 0
Apr-84 7 0
May-84 0
Jun-84 1 0
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Aug-84 2 0
Sep-84 10 0
Oct-84 3 0
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Dec-84 35
Jan-85 0
Feb-85 3 0
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Apr-85 8 0
May-85 0
Jun-85 0
Jul-85 1 0
Aug-85 0
Sep-85 0
Oct-85 1 0
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Dec-85 16
Jan-86 0
Feb-86 13 0
Mar-86 0
Apr-86 0
May-86 3 0
Jun-86 0
Jul-86 2 0
Aug-86 0
Sep-86 2 0
Oct-86 1 0
Nov-86 1 0
Dec-86 22
Jan-87 0
Feb-87 0
Mar-87 0
Apr-87 0
May-87 0
Jun-87 0
Jul-87 2 0
Aug-87 0
Sep-87 0
Oct-87 0
Nov-87 0
Dec-87 2
Jan-88 3 0
Feb-88 4 0
Mar-88 2 0
Apr-88 2 0
May-88 5 0
Jun-88 0
Jul-88 0
Aug-88 0
Sep-88 0
Oct-88 2 0
Nov-88 0
Dec-88 18
Jan-89 1 0
Feb-89 0
Mar-89 17 0
Apr-89 2 0
May-89 2 0
Jun-89 2 0
Jul-89 0
Aug-89 8 0
Sep-89 5 0
Oct-89 11 0
Nov-89 7 0
Dec-89 2 57
Jan-90 0
Feb-90 3 0
Mar-90 5 0
Apr-90 11 0
May-90 2 0
Jun-90 6 0
Jul-90 6 0
Aug-90 3 0
Sep-90 1 0
Oct-90 0
Nov-90 1 0
Dec-90 38
Jan-91 0
Feb-91 0
Mar-91 15 0
Apr-91 2 0
May-91 1 0
Jun-91 33 0
Jul-91 14 0
Aug-91 8 0
Sep-91 1 0
Oct-91 5 0
Nov-91 6 0
Dec-91 85
Jan-92 0
Feb-92 15 0
Mar-92 0
Apr-92 0
May-92 9 0
Jun-92 1 0
Jul-92 0
Aug-92 3 0
Sep-92 11 0
Oct-92 0
Nov-92 0
Dec-92 39
Jan-93 0
Feb-93 1 0
Mar-93 4 0
Apr-93 4 0
May-93 0
Jun-93 1 0
Jul-93 0
Aug-93 2 0
Sep-93 2 0
Oct-93 1 0
Nov-93 1 0
Dec-93 1 17
Jan-94 0
Feb-94 6 0
Mar-94 1 0
Apr-94 9 0
May-94 5 0
Jun-94 0
Jul-94 0
Aug-94 0
Sep-94 0
Oct-94 6 0
Nov-94 0
Dec-94 27
Jan-95 0
Feb-95 0
Mar-95 0
Apr-95 3 0
May-95 0
Jun-95 0
Jul-95 0
Aug-95 0
Sep-95 1 0
Oct-95 4 0
Nov-95 0
Dec-95 8
Jan-96 0
Feb-96 0
Mar-96 0
Apr-96 1 0
May-96 0
Jun-96 0
Jul-96 0
Aug-96 0
Sep-96 0
Oct-96 2 0
Nov-96 0
Dec-96 3
Jan-97 0
Feb-97 1 0
Mar-97 0
Apr-97 1 0
May-97 2 0
Jun-97 0
Jul-97 0
Aug-97 0
Sep-97 0
Oct-97 1 0
Nov-97 3 0
Dec-97 8
Jan-98 0
Feb-98 1 0
Mar-98 1 0
Apr-98 0
May-98 5 0
Jun-98 0
Jul-98 0
Aug-98 9 0
Sep-98 4 0
Oct-98 4 0
Nov-98 1 0
Dec-98 4 29
Jan-99 1 0
Feb-99 3 0
Mar-99 0
Apr-99 1 0
May-99 0
Jun-99 0
Jul-99 1 0
Aug-99 0
Sep-99 1 0
Oct-99 3 0
Nov-99 0
Dec-99 10
Jan-00 0
Feb-00 1 0
Mar-00 0
Apr-00 4 0
May-00 3 0
Jun-00 1 0
Jul-00 8 0
Aug-00 5 0
Sep-00 2 0
Oct-00 7 0
Nov-00 4 0
Dec-00 35
Jan-01 0
Feb-01 0
Mar-01 10 0
Apr-01 9 0
May-01 0
Jun-01 0
Jul-01 0
Aug-01 1 0
Sep-01 1 0
Oct-01 11 0
Nov-01 8 0
Dec-01 40
Jan-02 0
Feb-02 0
Mar-02 0
Apr-02 7 0
May-02 5 0
Jun-02 0
Jul-02 0
Aug-02 0
Sep-02 4 0
Oct-02 6 0
Nov-02 1 0
Dec-02 23
Jan-03 0
Feb-03 0
Mar-03 0
Apr-03 0
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
Page 3: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Magnetosphere

Energetic Charged Particles

ElectromagneticRadiation

What is space weatherSpace weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in

the space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space and groundbased technological systems as

well as endanger human health

Ionosphere

Presenter
Presentation Notes
At the Earthrsquos surface the atmosphere and the geomagnetic field provide ample protection from most of the solar electromagnetic radiation and charged particles The protective boundary of the Earthrsquos magnetic field is highly reactive to the onslaught of energy and pressure originating from the sun However while the sunrsquos harmful radiation and particles donrsquot generally reach the surface in sufficient quantities to have direct harmful effects their secondary effects are often felt The Earthrsquos magnetosphere redistributes its particle populations often sending a rush of energetic particles along magnetic field lines into the atmosphere over the polar caps and creating the swirling red green and white auroras Other particles pour into the Van Allen radiation belts and encircle the Earth in a ring of electric current The Earthrsquos magnetic field itself can distort to such an extent that compasses at the surface swing 10 degrees away from the magnetic pole The ionosphere (80-1000 km above the Earthrsquos surface) changes in ways that affect radio transmissions absorbing some radio frequencies distorting others and creating electric currents that affect systems on the ground13

4

The Sun at Solar Maximum

Sunspots and the Solar Cycle

~27 day full rotation

The Sun Today

Solar Cycle Updatebull Cycle 23 began in May 1996 bull Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120bull Solar Minimum in December 2008bull Solar Cycle 24 Underway

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Smoo

thed

Sun

spot

Num

ber

Sunspot Solar Cycles

2317161514 21201918 22

Chart1

23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12

Sheet1

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
1 Cycle 2 Cycle 10 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 Cycle 23 Cycle 23
Jan-32 1 31-Dec-32 4 111 31-Dec-32 111 277 31-Dec-00 95 1-Jan-00 5 2 112 32 4 10 May-96 8 1 8
Feb-32 31-Dec-33 3 57 31-Dec-33 57 312 31-Dec-01 27 11 3 121 33 4 10 Jun-96 9 2 9
Mar-32 31-Dec-34 0 87 31-Dec-34 87 252 31-Dec-02 5 16 4 135 36 5 11 Jul-96 8 0 3 8
Apr-32 31-Dec-35 0 361 31-Dec-35 361 Oct-60 258 31-Dec-03 244 23 5 145 39 5 12 Aug-96 8 4 8
May-32 2 31-Dec-36 5 797 31-Dec-36 797 Nov-60 293 31-Dec-04 42 36 6 159 39 6 12 Sep-96 8 5 8
Jun-32 31-Dec-37 25 1144 31-Dec-37 1144 Mar-89 285 31-Dec-05 635 58 7 172 38 6 13 Oct-96 9 6 9
Jul-32 1 31-Dec-38 46 1096 31-Dec-38 1096 Mar-60 251 31-Dec-06 538 29 8 186 41 7 14 Nov-96 10 7 10
Aug-32 31-Dec-39 56 888 31-Dec-39 888 May-67 241 31-Dec-07 62 20 9 206 49 7 15 Dec-96 10 8 10
Sep-32 31-Dec-40 56 678 Mar-40 8529 8529 Jul-82 229 31-Dec-08 485 10 10 229 55 7 15 Jan-97 11 9 11
Oct-32 31-Dec-41 44 475 31-Dec-40 678 Feb-86 228 31-Dec-09 439 8 11 26 58 8 16 Feb-97 11 10 11
Nov-32 31-Dec-42 19 306 Sep-41 5440 5440 Mar-40 226 31-Dec-10 186 3 12 293 62 9 16 Mar-97 14 11 14
Dec-32 4 31-Dec-43 21 163 31-Dec-41 475 223 31-Dec-11 57 0 13 329 76 11 17 Apr-97 17 12 17
Jan-33 31-Dec-44 7 96 31-Dec-42 306 222 31-Dec-12 36 0 14 364 92 12 20 May-97 18 13 18
Feb-33 31-Dec-45 13 332 31-Dec-43 163 221 31-Dec-13 14 2 15 389 104 13 22 Jun-97 20 14 20
Mar-33 31-Dec-46 77 926 31-Dec-44 96 216 31-Dec-14 96 11 16 415 116 13 25 Jul-97 23 2 15 23
Apr-33 31-Dec-47 54 1516 31-Dec-45 332 215 31-Dec-15 474 27 17 431 137 15 28 Aug-97 25 16 25
May-33 1 31-Dec-48 28 1363 31-Dec-46 926 214 31-Dec-16 571 47 18 437 167 18 31 Sep-97 28 17 28
Jun-33 31-Dec-49 49 1347 31-Dec-47 1516 212 31-Dec-17 1039 63 19 461 192 20 35 Oct-97 32 18 32
Jul-33 31-Dec-50 34 839 31-Dec-48 1363 212 31-Dec-18 806 60 20 499 215 22 37 Nov-97 35 19 35
Aug-33 1 31-Dec-51 44 694 31-Dec-49 1347 203 31-Dec-19 636 39 21 53 238 26 41 Dec-97 39 20 39
Sep-33 1 31-Dec-52 39 315 31-Dec-50 839 201 31-Dec-20 376 28 22 58 26 30 45 Jan-98 44 21 44
Oct-33 31-Dec-53 15 139 31-Dec-51 694 199 31-Dec-21 261 26 23 61 293 34 50 Feb-98 49 22 49
Nov-33 31-Dec-54 4 44 31-Dec-52 315 199 31-Dec-22 142 22 24 64 326 38 57 Mar-98 54 23 54
Dec-33 3 31-Dec-55 9 38 31-Dec-53 139 196 31-Dec-23 58 11 25 67 341 42 63 Apr-98 57 24 57
Jan-34 31-Dec-56 61 1417 31-Dec-54 44 196 31-Dec-24 167 21 26 71 36 47 68 May-98 59 25 59
Feb-34 31-Dec-57 72 1902 31-Dec-55 38 195 31-Dec-25 443 40 27 72 386 51 70 Jun-98 63 26 63
Mar-34 31-Dec-58 57 1848 31-Dec-56 1417 193 31-Dec-26 639 78 28 72 42 55 73 Jul-98 66 8 27 66
Apr-34 31-Dec-59 68 159 31-Dec-57 1902 192 31-Dec-27 69 122 29 75 45 57 75 Aug-98 68 28 68
May-34 31-Dec-60 98 1123 31-Dec-58 1848 186 31-Dec-28 778 103 30 77 49 59 79 Sep-98 70 29 70
Jun-34 31-Dec-61 34 539 Jul-59 17201 17201 186 31-Dec-29 649 73 31 77 52 62 82 Oct-98 71 30 71
Jul-34 31-Dec-62 3 376 31-Dec-59 159 185 31-Dec-30 357 47 32 78 54 66 85 Nov-98 73 31 73
Aug-34 31-Dec-63 19 279 Oct-60 12433 12433 183 31-Dec-31 212 35 33 81 57 69 88 Dec-98 78 32 78
Sep-34 31-Dec-64 5 102 Nov-60 12049 12049 181 31-Dec-32 111 11 34 86 61 72 91 Jan-99 83 33 83
Oct-34 31-Dec-65 4 151 31-Dec-60 1123 181 31-Dec-33 57 5 35 92 64 77 94 Feb-99 85 34 85
Nov-34 31-Dec-66 19 47 31-Dec-61 539 179 31-Dec-34 87 16 36 84 68 83 95 Mar-99 84 35 84
Dec-34 0 31-Dec-67 27 937 31-Dec-62 376 174 31-Dec-35 361 34 37 104 72 88 95 Apr-99 86 36 86
Jan-35 31-Dec-68 18 1059 31-Dec-63 279 173 31-Dec-36 797 70 38 106 76 90 95 May-99 91 37 91
Feb-35 31-Dec-69 10 1055 31-Dec-64 102 173 31-Dec-37 1144 81 39 107 79 92 97 Jun-99 93 38 93
Mar-35 31-Dec-70 23 1045 31-Dec-65 151 171 31-Dec-38 1096 111 40 112 83 96 101 Jul-99 94 5 39 94
Apr-35 31-Dec-71 6 666 31-Dec-66 47 168 31-Dec-39 888 101 41 116 86 101 102 Aug-99 98 40 98
May-35 31-Dec-72 36 689 31-Dec-67 937 31-Dec-40 678 73 42 115 88 108 112 Sep-99 102 41 102
Jun-35 31-Dec-73 22 38 31-Dec-68 1059 31-Dec-41 475 40 43 113 91 114 105 Oct-99 108 42 108
Jul-35 31-Dec-74 21 345 31-Dec-69 1055 31-Dec-42 306 20 44 112 93 117 107 Nov-99 111 43 111
Aug-35 31-Dec-75 7 155 31-Dec-70 1045 31-Dec-43 163 16 45 111 94 119 108 Dec-99 111 44 111
Sep-35 31-Dec-76 19 126 31-Dec-71 666 31-Dec-44 96 5 46 111 94 119 107 Jan-00 113 45 113
Oct-35 31-Dec-77 12 275 31-Dec-72 689 31-Dec-45 332 11 47 109 94 116 105 Feb-00 117 46 117
Nov-35 31-Dec-78 48 925 31-Dec-73 38 31-Dec-46 926 22 48 105 94 113 105 Mar-00 120 47 120
Dec-35 0 31-Dec-79 24 1554 31-Dec-74 345 31-Dec-47 1516 40 49 101 94 111 107 Apr-00 121 48 121
Jan-36 31-Dec-80 6 1546 31-Dec-75 155 31-Dec-48 1363 60 50 101 96 111 111 May-00 119 49 119
Feb-36 31-Dec-81 34 1405 31-Dec-76 126 31-Dec-49 1347 80 51 98 97 111 111 Jun-00 119 50 119
Mar-36 31-Dec-82 61 1159 31-Dec-77 275 31-Dec-50 839 83 52 91 98 111 110 Jul-00 120 13 51 120
Apr-36 1 31-Dec-83 40 666 31-Dec-78 925 31-Dec-51 694 477 53 86 97 110 110 Aug-00 119 52 119
May-36 31-Dec-84 35 459 31-Dec-79 1554 31-Dec-52 315 478 54 85 96 110 110 Sep-00 116 53 116
Jun-36 2 31-Dec-85 16 179 31-Dec-80 1546 31-Dec-53 139 307 55 89 95 110 108 Oct-00 115 54 115
Jul-36 31-Dec-86 22 134 31-Dec-81 1405 31-Dec-54 44 122 56 94 95 108 106 Nov-00 113 55 113
Aug-36 31-Dec-87 2 292 31-Dec-82 1159 31-Dec-55 38 96 57 94 95 106 106 Dec-00 112 56 112
Sep-36 31-Dec-88 18 1002 31-Dec-83 666 31-Dec-56 1417 102 58 89 94 107 106 Jan-01 109 57 109
Oct-36 31-Dec-89 57 1576 31-Dec-84 459 31-Dec-57 1902 324 59 86 93 109 106 Feb-01 104 58 107
Nov-36 2 31-Dec-90 38 1426 31-Dec-85 179 31-Dec-58 1848 476 60 85 95 109 107 Mar-01 105 59 105
Dec-36 5 31-Dec-91 85 1457 31-Dec-86 134 31-Dec-59 159 54 61 84 94 106 104 Apr-01 108 60 108
Jan-37 31-Dec-92 39 943 31-Dec-87 292 31-Dec-60 1123 629 62 82 91 104 105 May-01 109 61 109
Feb-37 1 31-Dec-93 17 546 31-Dec-88 1002 31-Dec-61 539 859 63 84 88 103 105 Jun-01 110 62 110
Mar-37 1 31-Dec-94 27 299 31-Dec-89 1576 31-Dec-62 376 612 64 89 96 103 105 Jul-01 112 22 63 112
Apr-37 13 31-Dec-95 8 175 31-Dec-90 1426 31-Dec-63 279 45 65 90 85 103 106 Aug-01 114 64 114
May-37 2 31-Dec-96 3 86 31-Dec-91 1457 31-Dec-64 102 364 66 905 83 100 106 Sep-01 114 65 114
Jun-37 31-Dec-97 8 215 31-Dec-92 943 31-Dec-65 151 209 67 869 80 97 106 Oct-01 114 66 114
Jul-37 31-Dec-98 29 643 31-Dec-93 546 31-Dec-66 47 114 68 795 78 97 106 Nov-01 116 67 116
Aug-37 2 31-Dec-99 10 933 31-Dec-94 299 31-Dec-67 937 378 69 773 77 98 107 Dec-01 115 68 115
Sep-37 1 31-Dec-00 35 1196 31-Dec-95 175 31-Dec-68 1059 698 70 776 77 95 105 Jan-02 114 69 114
Oct-37 5 31-Dec-01 40 111 31-Dec-96 86 31-Dec-69 1055 1061 71 754 74 91 104 Feb-02 115 70 115
Nov-37 31-Dec-02 23 104 31-Dec-97 215 31-Dec-70 1045 108 72 728 70 88 101 Mar-02 113 71 113
Dec-37 25 31-Dec-98 643 31-Dec-71 666 816 73 707 78 86 97 Apr-02 111 72 111
Jan-38 14 31-Dec-99 933 31-Dec-72 689 665 74 678 68 86 94 May-02 109 73 109
Feb-38 1 31-Dec-00 1196 31-Dec-73 38 348 75 646 68 84 89 Jun-02 106 74 106
Mar-38 31-Dec-01 111 31-Dec-74 345 306 76 601 66 80 84 Jul-02 103 19 75 103
Apr-38 6 31-Dec-02 104 31-Dec-75 155 7 77 583 65 76 80 Aug-02 99 76 99
May-38 7 31-Dec-76 126 198 78 567 64 74 78 Sep-02 95 77 95
Jun-38 31-Dec-77 275 926 79 543 63 73 74 Oct-02 91 78 91
Jul-38 2 31-Dec-78 925 1544 80 533 61 71 71 Nov-02 85 79 85
Aug-38 2 31-Dec-79 1554 1259 81 50 58 68 68 Dec-02 82 80 82
Sep-38 8 31-Dec-80 1546 848 82 461 58 66 67 Jan-03 81 81 81
Oct-38 6 31-Dec-81 1405 681 83 435 58 67 65 Feb-03 78 82 78
Nov-38 31-Dec-82 1159 385 84 404 59 68 65 Mar-03 74 83 74
Dec-38 46 31-Dec-83 666 228 85 374 58 67 66 Apr-03 70 84 70
Jan-39 31-Dec-84 459 102 86 356 55 65 66 May-03 68 85 68
Feb-39 4 31-Dec-85 179 241 87 345 52 62 67 Jun-03 65 86 65
Mar-39 1 31-Dec-86 134 829 88 356 50 60 69 Jul-03 62 9 87 62
Apr-39 14 31-Dec-87 292 132 89 373 47 60 71 Aug-03 60 88 60
May-39 2 31-Dec-88 1002 130 90 38 45 57 71 Sep-03 60 89 60
Jun-39 3 31-Dec-89 1576 1181 91 389 45 55 72 Oct-03 58 90 58
Jul-39 6 31-Dec-90 1426 899 92 393 44 53 73 Nov-03 57 91 57
Aug-39 15 31-Dec-91 1457 666 93 389 44 52 73 Dec-03 55 92 55
Sep-39 1 31-Dec-92 943 60 94 382 44 51 71 Jan-04 52 93 52
Oct-39 10 31-Dec-93 546 469 95 37 44 49 68 Feb-04 49 94 49
Nov-39 31-Dec-94 299 41 96 356 45 47 65 Mar-04 47 95 47
Dec-39 56 31-Dec-95 175 213 97 342 43 47 62 Apr-04 46 96 46
Jan-40 2 31-Dec-96 86 16 98 319 43 48 61 May-04 44 97 44
Feb-40 31-Dec-97 215 64 99 289 45 49 59 Jun-04 42 98 42
Mar-40 27 31-Dec-98 643 41 100 244 46 50 55 Jul-04 40 6 99 40
Apr-40 10 31-Dec-99 933 68 101 198 47 48 51 Aug-04 39 100 39
May-40 2 31-Dec-00 1196 145 102 166 47 44 46 Sep-04 38 101 38
Jun-40 5 31-Dec-01 111 34 103 133 47 40 44 Oct-04 36 102 36
Jul-40 2 31-Dec-02 104 45 104 106 48 37 43 Nov-04 35 103 35
Aug-40 31-Dec-03 55 431 105 93 47 33 41 Dec-04 35 104 35
Sep-40 3 31-Dec-04 40 475 106 86 46 32 39 Jan-05 35 105 35
Oct-40 3 31-Dec-05 32 422 107 85 44 30 37 Feb-05 34 106 34
Nov-40 2 31-Dec-06 20 281 108 79 43 30 36 Mar-05 34 107 34
Dec-40 56 31-Dec-07 12 101 109 75 43 28 34 Apr-05 32 108 32
Jan-41 0 81 110 72 41 27 31 May-05 29 109 29
Feb-41 0 25 111 39 23 32 Jun-05 29 110 29
Mar-41 13 0 0 112 37 21 31 Jul-05 29 7 111 29
Apr-41 1 0 14 113 36 21 33 Aug-05 28 112 28
May-41 0 5 114 35 20 34 Sep-05 26 113 26
Jun-41 0 122 115 33 20 34 Oct-05 26 114 26
Jul-41 8 0 139 116 31 20 34 Nov-05 25 115 25
Aug-41 4 0 354 117 30 19 35 Dec-05 23 116 23
Sep-41 12 0 458 118 29 18 35 Jan-06 21 117 21
Oct-41 0 41 119 28 17 34 Feb-06 19 118 19
Nov-41 3 0 301 120 27 16 33 Mar-06 17 119 17
Dec-41 3 44 239 121 26 14 32 Apr-06 17 120 17
Jan-42 0 156 122 24 13 31 May-06 17 121 17
Feb-42 0 66 123 23 11 28 Jun-06 16 122 16
Mar-42 8 0 4 124 21 9 25 Jul-06 15 2 123 15
Apr-42 2 0 18 125 19 9 23 Aug-06 16 124 16
May-42 0 85 126 19 8 22 Sep-06 16 125 16
Jun-42 0 166 127 18 77 21 Oct-06 14 126 14
Jul-42 0 363 128 17 19 Nov-06 13 127 13
Aug-42 1 0 496 129 15 18 Dec-06 12 128 12
Sep-42 1 0 642 130 12 16 Jan-07 12 129 12
Oct-42 5 0 67 131 10 15 Feb-07 12 130 12
Nov-42 2 0 709 132 9 14 Mar-07 11 131 11
Dec-42 19 478 133 8 14 Apr-07 10 132 10
Jan-43 1 0 275 134 7 15 May-07 9 133 9
Feb-43 1 0 85 135 6 16 Jun-07 8 134 8
Mar-43 1 0 132 136 5 16 Jul-07 7 0 135 7
Apr-43 0 569 137 5 15 Aug-07 6 136 6
May-43 0 1215 138 13 Sep-07 5 137 5
Jun-43 0 1383 139 12 Oct-07 5 138 5
Jul-43 0 1032 140 13 Nov-07 5 139 5
Aug-43 14 0 857 141 13 Dec-07 4 140 4
Sep-43 2 0 646 142 12 Jan-08 5 141 5
Oct-43 1 0 367 Feb-08 4 142 4
Nov-43 1 0 242
Dec-43 21 107
Jan-44 0 15
Feb-44 1 0 401
Mar-44 2 0 6105
Apr-44 2 0 985
May-44 0 1247
Jun-44 0 963
Jul-44 0 666
Aug-44 0 645
Sep-44 0 541
Oct-44 0 39
Nov-44 0 206
Dec-44 2 7 67
Jan-45 1 0 43
Feb-45 0 227
Mar-45 4 0 546
Apr-45 5 0 938
May-45 0 958
Jun-45 0 772
Jul-45 0 591
Aug-45 0 44
Sep-45 0 47
Oct-45 0 305
Nov-45 0 163
Dec-45 3 13 73
Jan-46 2 0 376
Feb-46 9 0 74
Mar-46 18 0 139
Apr-46 8 0 1112
May-46 3 0 1016
Jun-46 2 0 662
Jul-46 7 0 447
Aug-46 1 0 17
Sep-46 26 0 113
Oct-46 1 0 124
Nov-46 0 34
Dec-46 77 6
Jan-47 0 323
Feb-47 0 543
Mar-47 22 0 597
Apr-47 3 0 637
May-47 2 0 635
Jun-47 1 0 522
Jul-47 5 0 254
Aug-47 4 0 131
Sep-47 10 0 68
Oct-47 3 0 63
Nov-47 4 0 71
Dec-47 54 356
Jan-48 0 73
Feb-48 0 851
Mar-48 5 0 78
Apr-48 2 0 64
May-48 1 0 418
Jun-48 0 262
Jul-48 0 267
Aug-48 10 0 121
Sep-48 0 95
Oct-48 10 0 27
Nov-48 0 5
Dec-48 28 244
Jan-49 10 0 42
Feb-49 0 635
Mar-49 7 0 538
Apr-49 4 0 62
May-49 10 0 485
Jun-49 1 0 439
Jul-49 0 186
Aug-49 5 0 57
Sep-49 0 36
Oct-49 12 0 14
Nov-49 0 96
Dec-49 49 474
Jan-50 1 0 571
Feb-50 5 0 1039
Mar-50 4 0 806
Apr-50 1 0 636
May-50 3 0 376
Jun-50 1 0 261
Jul-50 1 0 142
Aug-50 11 0 58
Sep-50 1 0 167
Oct-50 5 0 443
Nov-50 1 0 639
Dec-50 34 69
Jan-51 1 0 778
Feb-51 3 0 649
Mar-51 1 0 357
Apr-51 2 0 212
May-51 6 0 111
Jun-51 3 0 57
Jul-51 4 0 87
Aug-51 0 361
Sep-51 16 0 797
Oct-51 6 0 1144
Nov-51 0 1096
Dec-51 2 44 888
Jan-52 0 678
Feb-52 3 0 475
Mar-52 10 0 306
Apr-52 10 0 163
May-52 6 0 96
Jun-52 3 0 332
Jul-52 0 926
Aug-52 0 1516
Sep-52 2 0 1363
Oct-52 3 0 1347
Nov-52 0 839
Dec-52 2 39 694
Jan-53 1 0 315
Feb-53 0 139
Mar-53 3 0 44
Apr-53 0 38
May-53 5 0 1417
Jun-53 0 1902
Jul-53 0 1848
Aug-53 1 0 159
Sep-53 4 0 1123
Oct-53 1 0 539
Nov-53 0 376
Dec-53 15 279
Jan-54 0 102
Feb-54 0 151
Mar-54 3 0 47
Apr-54 0 937
May-54 0 1059
Jun-54 0 1055
Jul-54 0 1045
Aug-54 0 666
Sep-54 1 0 689
Oct-54 0 38
Nov-54 0 345
Dec-54 4 155
Jan-55 3 0 126
Feb-55 0 275
Mar-55 0 925
Apr-55 3 0 1554
May-55 1 0 1546
Jun-55 0 1405
Jul-55 0 1159
Aug-55 0 666
Sep-55 1 0 459
Oct-55 0 179
Nov-55 1 0 134
Dec-55 9 292
Jan-56 0 1002
Feb-56 5 0 1576
Mar-56 4 0 1426
Apr-56 18 0 1457
May-56 15 0 943
Jun-56 1 0 546
Jul-56 0 299
Aug-56 3 0 175
Sep-56 5 0 86
Oct-56 1 0 215
Nov-56 9 0 643
Dec-56 61 933
Jan-57 4 0 1196
Feb-57 2 0 111
Mar-57 12 0 104
Apr-57 4 0
May-57 0
Jun-57 8 0
Jul-57 1 0
Aug-57 0
Sep-57 37 0
Oct-57 1 0
Nov-57 3 0
Dec-57 72
Jan-58 1 0
Feb-58 5 0
Mar-58 4 0
Apr-58 0
May-58 3 0
Jun-58 10 0
Jul-58 9 0
Aug-58 9 0
Sep-58 10 0
Oct-58 3 0
Nov-58 0
Dec-58 3 57
Jan-59 0
Feb-59 1 0
Mar-59 13 0
Apr-59 5 0
May-59 6 0
Jun-59 0
Jul-59 15 0
Aug-59 10 0
Sep-59 10 0
Oct-59 3 0
Nov-59 3 0
Dec-59 2 68
Jan-60 0
Feb-60 0
Mar-60 6 0
Apr-60 26 0
May-60 10 0
Jun-60 4 0
Jul-60 5 0
Aug-60 7 0
Sep-60 9 0
Oct-60 17 0
Nov-60 13 0
Dec-60 1 98
Jan-61 0
Feb-61 3 0
Mar-61 2 0
Apr-61 4 0
May-61 0
Jun-61 2 0
Jul-61 12 0
Aug-61 0
Sep-61 1 0
Oct-61 8 0
Nov-61 0
Dec-61 2 34
Jan-62 0
Feb-62 0
Mar-62 0
Apr-62 0
May-62 0
Jun-62 0
Jul-62 0
Aug-62 0
Sep-62 0
Oct-62 2 0
Nov-62 0
Dec-62 1 3
Jan-63 0
Feb-63 0
Mar-63 0
Apr-63 0
May-63 0
Jun-63 1 0
Jul-63 0
Aug-63 2 0
Sep-63 11 0
Oct-63 5 0
Nov-63 0
Dec-63 19
Jan-64 1 0
Feb-64 0
Mar-64 0
Apr-64 1 0
May-64 0
Jun-64 1 0
Jul-64 0
Aug-64 0
Sep-64 2 0
Oct-64 0
Nov-64 0
Dec-64 5
Jan-65 0
Feb-65 0
Mar-65 0
Apr-65 2 0
May-65 0
Jun-65 2 0
Jul-65 0
Aug-65 0
Sep-65 0
Oct-65 0
Nov-65 0
Dec-65 4
Jan-66 0
Feb-66 0
Mar-66 6 0
Apr-66 0
May-66 4 0
Jun-66 0
Jul-66 0
Aug-66 3 0
Sep-66 5 0
Oct-66 0
Nov-66 0
Dec-66 1 19
Jan-67 3 0
Feb-67 2 0
Mar-67 0
Apr-67 0
May-67 16 0
Jun-67 3 0
Jul-67 0
Aug-67 0
Sep-67 3 0
Oct-67 0
Nov-67 0
Dec-67 27
Jan-68 0
Feb-68 0
Mar-68 0
Apr-68 1 0
May-68 2 0
Jun-68 4 0
Jul-68 0
Aug-68 0
Sep-68 0
Oct-68 4 0
Nov-68 7 0
Dec-68 18
Jan-69 0
Feb-69 2 0
Mar-69 5 0
Apr-69 0
May-69 2 0
Jun-69 0
Jul-69 0
Aug-69 0
Sep-69 1 0
Oct-69 0
Nov-69 0
Dec-69 10
Jan-70 0
Feb-70 0
Mar-70 4 0
Apr-70 4 0
May-70 1 0
Jun-70 0
Jul-70 7 0
Aug-70 4 0
Sep-70 0
Oct-70 1 0
Nov-70 1 0
Dec-70 1 23
Jan-71 0
Feb-71 0
Mar-71 0
Apr-71 2 0
May-71 1 0
Jun-71 0
Jul-71 0
Aug-71 0
Sep-71 1 0
Oct-71 0
Nov-71 0
Dec-71 2 6
Jan-72 0
Feb-72 0
Mar-72 1 0
Apr-72 0
May-72 1 0
Jun-72 7 0
Jul-72 0
Aug-72 18 0
Sep-72 4 0
Oct-72 1 0
Nov-72 3 0
Dec-72 1 36
Jan-73 0
Feb-73 2 0
Mar-73 5 0
Apr-73 6 0
May-73 3 0
Jun-73 0
Jul-73 0
Aug-73 0
Sep-73 3 0
Oct-73 3 0
Nov-73 0
Dec-73 22
Jan-74 0
Feb-74 0
Mar-74 3 0
Apr-74 0
May-74 0
Jun-74 0
Jul-74 7 0
Aug-74 0
Sep-74 6 0
Oct-74 4 0
Nov-74 1 0
Dec-74 21
Jan-75 1 0
Feb-75 0
Mar-75 3 0
Apr-75 0
May-75 0
Jun-75 0
Jul-75 1 0
Aug-75 0
Sep-75 0
Oct-75 1 0
Nov-75 1 0
Dec-75 7
Jan-76 3 0
Feb-76 0
Mar-76 6 0
Apr-76 3 0
May-76 6 0
Jun-76 1 0
Jul-76 0
Aug-76 0
Sep-76 0
Oct-76 0
Nov-76 0
Dec-76 19
Jan-77 0
Feb-77 0
Mar-77 0
Apr-77 2 0
May-77 0
Jun-77 0
Jul-77 2 0
Aug-77 0
Sep-77 3 0
Oct-77 3 0
Nov-77 0
Dec-77 2 12
Jan-78 2 0
Feb-78 2 0
Mar-78 2 0
Apr-78 6 0
May-78 17 0
Jun-78 5 0
Jul-78 4 0
Aug-78 4 0
Sep-78 5 0
Oct-78 0
Nov-78 1 0
Dec-78 48
Jan-79 0
Feb-79 1 0
Mar-79 4 0
Apr-79 9 0
May-79 1 0
Jun-79 1 0
Jul-79 0
Aug-79 7 0
Sep-79 1 0
Oct-79 0
Nov-79 0
Dec-79 24
Jan-80 0
Feb-80 1 0
Mar-80 0
Apr-80 0
May-80 0
Jun-80 0
Jul-80 2 0
Aug-80 0
Sep-80 0
Oct-80 0
Nov-80 0
Dec-80 3 6
Jan-81 0
Feb-81 1 0
Mar-81 3 0
Apr-81 7 0
May-81 6 0
Jun-81 1 0
Jul-81 7 0
Aug-81 0
Sep-81 0
Oct-81 8 0
Nov-81 1 0
Dec-81 34
Jan-82 0
Feb-82 2 0
Mar-82 6 0
Apr-82 2 0
May-82 0
Jun-82 2 0
Jul-82 13 0
Aug-82 5 0
Sep-82 23 0
Oct-82 0
Nov-82 5 0
Dec-82 3 61
Jan-83 3 0
Feb-83 9 0
Mar-83 4 0
Apr-83 1 0
May-83 5 0
Jun-83 2 0
Jul-83 2 0
Aug-83 2 0
Sep-83 10 0
Oct-83 1 0
Nov-83 1 0
Dec-83 40
Jan-84 0
Feb-84 3 0
Mar-84 2 0
Apr-84 7 0
May-84 0
Jun-84 1 0
Jul-84 2 0
Aug-84 2 0
Sep-84 10 0
Oct-84 3 0
Nov-84 5 0
Dec-84 35
Jan-85 0
Feb-85 3 0
Mar-85 0
Apr-85 8 0
May-85 0
Jun-85 0
Jul-85 1 0
Aug-85 0
Sep-85 0
Oct-85 1 0
Nov-85 3 0
Dec-85 16
Jan-86 0
Feb-86 13 0
Mar-86 0
Apr-86 0
May-86 3 0
Jun-86 0
Jul-86 2 0
Aug-86 0
Sep-86 2 0
Oct-86 1 0
Nov-86 1 0
Dec-86 22
Jan-87 0
Feb-87 0
Mar-87 0
Apr-87 0
May-87 0
Jun-87 0
Jul-87 2 0
Aug-87 0
Sep-87 0
Oct-87 0
Nov-87 0
Dec-87 2
Jan-88 3 0
Feb-88 4 0
Mar-88 2 0
Apr-88 2 0
May-88 5 0
Jun-88 0
Jul-88 0
Aug-88 0
Sep-88 0
Oct-88 2 0
Nov-88 0
Dec-88 18
Jan-89 1 0
Feb-89 0
Mar-89 17 0
Apr-89 2 0
May-89 2 0
Jun-89 2 0
Jul-89 0
Aug-89 8 0
Sep-89 5 0
Oct-89 11 0
Nov-89 7 0
Dec-89 2 57
Jan-90 0
Feb-90 3 0
Mar-90 5 0
Apr-90 11 0
May-90 2 0
Jun-90 6 0
Jul-90 6 0
Aug-90 3 0
Sep-90 1 0
Oct-90 0
Nov-90 1 0
Dec-90 38
Jan-91 0
Feb-91 0
Mar-91 15 0
Apr-91 2 0
May-91 1 0
Jun-91 33 0
Jul-91 14 0
Aug-91 8 0
Sep-91 1 0
Oct-91 5 0
Nov-91 6 0
Dec-91 85
Jan-92 0
Feb-92 15 0
Mar-92 0
Apr-92 0
May-92 9 0
Jun-92 1 0
Jul-92 0
Aug-92 3 0
Sep-92 11 0
Oct-92 0
Nov-92 0
Dec-92 39
Jan-93 0
Feb-93 1 0
Mar-93 4 0
Apr-93 4 0
May-93 0
Jun-93 1 0
Jul-93 0
Aug-93 2 0
Sep-93 2 0
Oct-93 1 0
Nov-93 1 0
Dec-93 1 17
Jan-94 0
Feb-94 6 0
Mar-94 1 0
Apr-94 9 0
May-94 5 0
Jun-94 0
Jul-94 0
Aug-94 0
Sep-94 0
Oct-94 6 0
Nov-94 0
Dec-94 27
Jan-95 0
Feb-95 0
Mar-95 0
Apr-95 3 0
May-95 0
Jun-95 0
Jul-95 0
Aug-95 0
Sep-95 1 0
Oct-95 4 0
Nov-95 0
Dec-95 8
Jan-96 0
Feb-96 0
Mar-96 0
Apr-96 1 0
May-96 0
Jun-96 0
Jul-96 0
Aug-96 0
Sep-96 0
Oct-96 2 0
Nov-96 0
Dec-96 3
Jan-97 0
Feb-97 1 0
Mar-97 0
Apr-97 1 0
May-97 2 0
Jun-97 0
Jul-97 0
Aug-97 0
Sep-97 0
Oct-97 1 0
Nov-97 3 0
Dec-97 8
Jan-98 0
Feb-98 1 0
Mar-98 1 0
Apr-98 0
May-98 5 0
Jun-98 0
Jul-98 0
Aug-98 9 0
Sep-98 4 0
Oct-98 4 0
Nov-98 1 0
Dec-98 4 29
Jan-99 1 0
Feb-99 3 0
Mar-99 0
Apr-99 1 0
May-99 0
Jun-99 0
Jul-99 1 0
Aug-99 0
Sep-99 1 0
Oct-99 3 0
Nov-99 0
Dec-99 10
Jan-00 0
Feb-00 1 0
Mar-00 0
Apr-00 4 0
May-00 3 0
Jun-00 1 0
Jul-00 8 0
Aug-00 5 0
Sep-00 2 0
Oct-00 7 0
Nov-00 4 0
Dec-00 35
Jan-01 0
Feb-01 0
Mar-01 10 0
Apr-01 9 0
May-01 0
Jun-01 0
Jul-01 0
Aug-01 1 0
Sep-01 1 0
Oct-01 11 0
Nov-01 8 0
Dec-01 40
Jan-02 0
Feb-02 0
Mar-02 0
Apr-02 7 0
May-02 5 0
Jun-02 0
Jul-02 0
Aug-02 0
Sep-02 4 0
Oct-02 6 0
Nov-02 1 0
Dec-02 23
Jan-03 0
Feb-03 0
Mar-03 0
Apr-03 0
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
Page 4: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

4

The Sun at Solar Maximum

Sunspots and the Solar Cycle

~27 day full rotation

The Sun Today

Solar Cycle Updatebull Cycle 23 began in May 1996 bull Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120bull Solar Minimum in December 2008bull Solar Cycle 24 Underway

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Smoo

thed

Sun

spot

Num

ber

Sunspot Solar Cycles

2317161514 21201918 22

Chart1

23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12

Sheet1

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
1 Cycle 2 Cycle 10 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 Cycle 23 Cycle 23
Jan-32 1 31-Dec-32 4 111 31-Dec-32 111 277 31-Dec-00 95 1-Jan-00 5 2 112 32 4 10 May-96 8 1 8
Feb-32 31-Dec-33 3 57 31-Dec-33 57 312 31-Dec-01 27 11 3 121 33 4 10 Jun-96 9 2 9
Mar-32 31-Dec-34 0 87 31-Dec-34 87 252 31-Dec-02 5 16 4 135 36 5 11 Jul-96 8 0 3 8
Apr-32 31-Dec-35 0 361 31-Dec-35 361 Oct-60 258 31-Dec-03 244 23 5 145 39 5 12 Aug-96 8 4 8
May-32 2 31-Dec-36 5 797 31-Dec-36 797 Nov-60 293 31-Dec-04 42 36 6 159 39 6 12 Sep-96 8 5 8
Jun-32 31-Dec-37 25 1144 31-Dec-37 1144 Mar-89 285 31-Dec-05 635 58 7 172 38 6 13 Oct-96 9 6 9
Jul-32 1 31-Dec-38 46 1096 31-Dec-38 1096 Mar-60 251 31-Dec-06 538 29 8 186 41 7 14 Nov-96 10 7 10
Aug-32 31-Dec-39 56 888 31-Dec-39 888 May-67 241 31-Dec-07 62 20 9 206 49 7 15 Dec-96 10 8 10
Sep-32 31-Dec-40 56 678 Mar-40 8529 8529 Jul-82 229 31-Dec-08 485 10 10 229 55 7 15 Jan-97 11 9 11
Oct-32 31-Dec-41 44 475 31-Dec-40 678 Feb-86 228 31-Dec-09 439 8 11 26 58 8 16 Feb-97 11 10 11
Nov-32 31-Dec-42 19 306 Sep-41 5440 5440 Mar-40 226 31-Dec-10 186 3 12 293 62 9 16 Mar-97 14 11 14
Dec-32 4 31-Dec-43 21 163 31-Dec-41 475 223 31-Dec-11 57 0 13 329 76 11 17 Apr-97 17 12 17
Jan-33 31-Dec-44 7 96 31-Dec-42 306 222 31-Dec-12 36 0 14 364 92 12 20 May-97 18 13 18
Feb-33 31-Dec-45 13 332 31-Dec-43 163 221 31-Dec-13 14 2 15 389 104 13 22 Jun-97 20 14 20
Mar-33 31-Dec-46 77 926 31-Dec-44 96 216 31-Dec-14 96 11 16 415 116 13 25 Jul-97 23 2 15 23
Apr-33 31-Dec-47 54 1516 31-Dec-45 332 215 31-Dec-15 474 27 17 431 137 15 28 Aug-97 25 16 25
May-33 1 31-Dec-48 28 1363 31-Dec-46 926 214 31-Dec-16 571 47 18 437 167 18 31 Sep-97 28 17 28
Jun-33 31-Dec-49 49 1347 31-Dec-47 1516 212 31-Dec-17 1039 63 19 461 192 20 35 Oct-97 32 18 32
Jul-33 31-Dec-50 34 839 31-Dec-48 1363 212 31-Dec-18 806 60 20 499 215 22 37 Nov-97 35 19 35
Aug-33 1 31-Dec-51 44 694 31-Dec-49 1347 203 31-Dec-19 636 39 21 53 238 26 41 Dec-97 39 20 39
Sep-33 1 31-Dec-52 39 315 31-Dec-50 839 201 31-Dec-20 376 28 22 58 26 30 45 Jan-98 44 21 44
Oct-33 31-Dec-53 15 139 31-Dec-51 694 199 31-Dec-21 261 26 23 61 293 34 50 Feb-98 49 22 49
Nov-33 31-Dec-54 4 44 31-Dec-52 315 199 31-Dec-22 142 22 24 64 326 38 57 Mar-98 54 23 54
Dec-33 3 31-Dec-55 9 38 31-Dec-53 139 196 31-Dec-23 58 11 25 67 341 42 63 Apr-98 57 24 57
Jan-34 31-Dec-56 61 1417 31-Dec-54 44 196 31-Dec-24 167 21 26 71 36 47 68 May-98 59 25 59
Feb-34 31-Dec-57 72 1902 31-Dec-55 38 195 31-Dec-25 443 40 27 72 386 51 70 Jun-98 63 26 63
Mar-34 31-Dec-58 57 1848 31-Dec-56 1417 193 31-Dec-26 639 78 28 72 42 55 73 Jul-98 66 8 27 66
Apr-34 31-Dec-59 68 159 31-Dec-57 1902 192 31-Dec-27 69 122 29 75 45 57 75 Aug-98 68 28 68
May-34 31-Dec-60 98 1123 31-Dec-58 1848 186 31-Dec-28 778 103 30 77 49 59 79 Sep-98 70 29 70
Jun-34 31-Dec-61 34 539 Jul-59 17201 17201 186 31-Dec-29 649 73 31 77 52 62 82 Oct-98 71 30 71
Jul-34 31-Dec-62 3 376 31-Dec-59 159 185 31-Dec-30 357 47 32 78 54 66 85 Nov-98 73 31 73
Aug-34 31-Dec-63 19 279 Oct-60 12433 12433 183 31-Dec-31 212 35 33 81 57 69 88 Dec-98 78 32 78
Sep-34 31-Dec-64 5 102 Nov-60 12049 12049 181 31-Dec-32 111 11 34 86 61 72 91 Jan-99 83 33 83
Oct-34 31-Dec-65 4 151 31-Dec-60 1123 181 31-Dec-33 57 5 35 92 64 77 94 Feb-99 85 34 85
Nov-34 31-Dec-66 19 47 31-Dec-61 539 179 31-Dec-34 87 16 36 84 68 83 95 Mar-99 84 35 84
Dec-34 0 31-Dec-67 27 937 31-Dec-62 376 174 31-Dec-35 361 34 37 104 72 88 95 Apr-99 86 36 86
Jan-35 31-Dec-68 18 1059 31-Dec-63 279 173 31-Dec-36 797 70 38 106 76 90 95 May-99 91 37 91
Feb-35 31-Dec-69 10 1055 31-Dec-64 102 173 31-Dec-37 1144 81 39 107 79 92 97 Jun-99 93 38 93
Mar-35 31-Dec-70 23 1045 31-Dec-65 151 171 31-Dec-38 1096 111 40 112 83 96 101 Jul-99 94 5 39 94
Apr-35 31-Dec-71 6 666 31-Dec-66 47 168 31-Dec-39 888 101 41 116 86 101 102 Aug-99 98 40 98
May-35 31-Dec-72 36 689 31-Dec-67 937 31-Dec-40 678 73 42 115 88 108 112 Sep-99 102 41 102
Jun-35 31-Dec-73 22 38 31-Dec-68 1059 31-Dec-41 475 40 43 113 91 114 105 Oct-99 108 42 108
Jul-35 31-Dec-74 21 345 31-Dec-69 1055 31-Dec-42 306 20 44 112 93 117 107 Nov-99 111 43 111
Aug-35 31-Dec-75 7 155 31-Dec-70 1045 31-Dec-43 163 16 45 111 94 119 108 Dec-99 111 44 111
Sep-35 31-Dec-76 19 126 31-Dec-71 666 31-Dec-44 96 5 46 111 94 119 107 Jan-00 113 45 113
Oct-35 31-Dec-77 12 275 31-Dec-72 689 31-Dec-45 332 11 47 109 94 116 105 Feb-00 117 46 117
Nov-35 31-Dec-78 48 925 31-Dec-73 38 31-Dec-46 926 22 48 105 94 113 105 Mar-00 120 47 120
Dec-35 0 31-Dec-79 24 1554 31-Dec-74 345 31-Dec-47 1516 40 49 101 94 111 107 Apr-00 121 48 121
Jan-36 31-Dec-80 6 1546 31-Dec-75 155 31-Dec-48 1363 60 50 101 96 111 111 May-00 119 49 119
Feb-36 31-Dec-81 34 1405 31-Dec-76 126 31-Dec-49 1347 80 51 98 97 111 111 Jun-00 119 50 119
Mar-36 31-Dec-82 61 1159 31-Dec-77 275 31-Dec-50 839 83 52 91 98 111 110 Jul-00 120 13 51 120
Apr-36 1 31-Dec-83 40 666 31-Dec-78 925 31-Dec-51 694 477 53 86 97 110 110 Aug-00 119 52 119
May-36 31-Dec-84 35 459 31-Dec-79 1554 31-Dec-52 315 478 54 85 96 110 110 Sep-00 116 53 116
Jun-36 2 31-Dec-85 16 179 31-Dec-80 1546 31-Dec-53 139 307 55 89 95 110 108 Oct-00 115 54 115
Jul-36 31-Dec-86 22 134 31-Dec-81 1405 31-Dec-54 44 122 56 94 95 108 106 Nov-00 113 55 113
Aug-36 31-Dec-87 2 292 31-Dec-82 1159 31-Dec-55 38 96 57 94 95 106 106 Dec-00 112 56 112
Sep-36 31-Dec-88 18 1002 31-Dec-83 666 31-Dec-56 1417 102 58 89 94 107 106 Jan-01 109 57 109
Oct-36 31-Dec-89 57 1576 31-Dec-84 459 31-Dec-57 1902 324 59 86 93 109 106 Feb-01 104 58 107
Nov-36 2 31-Dec-90 38 1426 31-Dec-85 179 31-Dec-58 1848 476 60 85 95 109 107 Mar-01 105 59 105
Dec-36 5 31-Dec-91 85 1457 31-Dec-86 134 31-Dec-59 159 54 61 84 94 106 104 Apr-01 108 60 108
Jan-37 31-Dec-92 39 943 31-Dec-87 292 31-Dec-60 1123 629 62 82 91 104 105 May-01 109 61 109
Feb-37 1 31-Dec-93 17 546 31-Dec-88 1002 31-Dec-61 539 859 63 84 88 103 105 Jun-01 110 62 110
Mar-37 1 31-Dec-94 27 299 31-Dec-89 1576 31-Dec-62 376 612 64 89 96 103 105 Jul-01 112 22 63 112
Apr-37 13 31-Dec-95 8 175 31-Dec-90 1426 31-Dec-63 279 45 65 90 85 103 106 Aug-01 114 64 114
May-37 2 31-Dec-96 3 86 31-Dec-91 1457 31-Dec-64 102 364 66 905 83 100 106 Sep-01 114 65 114
Jun-37 31-Dec-97 8 215 31-Dec-92 943 31-Dec-65 151 209 67 869 80 97 106 Oct-01 114 66 114
Jul-37 31-Dec-98 29 643 31-Dec-93 546 31-Dec-66 47 114 68 795 78 97 106 Nov-01 116 67 116
Aug-37 2 31-Dec-99 10 933 31-Dec-94 299 31-Dec-67 937 378 69 773 77 98 107 Dec-01 115 68 115
Sep-37 1 31-Dec-00 35 1196 31-Dec-95 175 31-Dec-68 1059 698 70 776 77 95 105 Jan-02 114 69 114
Oct-37 5 31-Dec-01 40 111 31-Dec-96 86 31-Dec-69 1055 1061 71 754 74 91 104 Feb-02 115 70 115
Nov-37 31-Dec-02 23 104 31-Dec-97 215 31-Dec-70 1045 108 72 728 70 88 101 Mar-02 113 71 113
Dec-37 25 31-Dec-98 643 31-Dec-71 666 816 73 707 78 86 97 Apr-02 111 72 111
Jan-38 14 31-Dec-99 933 31-Dec-72 689 665 74 678 68 86 94 May-02 109 73 109
Feb-38 1 31-Dec-00 1196 31-Dec-73 38 348 75 646 68 84 89 Jun-02 106 74 106
Mar-38 31-Dec-01 111 31-Dec-74 345 306 76 601 66 80 84 Jul-02 103 19 75 103
Apr-38 6 31-Dec-02 104 31-Dec-75 155 7 77 583 65 76 80 Aug-02 99 76 99
May-38 7 31-Dec-76 126 198 78 567 64 74 78 Sep-02 95 77 95
Jun-38 31-Dec-77 275 926 79 543 63 73 74 Oct-02 91 78 91
Jul-38 2 31-Dec-78 925 1544 80 533 61 71 71 Nov-02 85 79 85
Aug-38 2 31-Dec-79 1554 1259 81 50 58 68 68 Dec-02 82 80 82
Sep-38 8 31-Dec-80 1546 848 82 461 58 66 67 Jan-03 81 81 81
Oct-38 6 31-Dec-81 1405 681 83 435 58 67 65 Feb-03 78 82 78
Nov-38 31-Dec-82 1159 385 84 404 59 68 65 Mar-03 74 83 74
Dec-38 46 31-Dec-83 666 228 85 374 58 67 66 Apr-03 70 84 70
Jan-39 31-Dec-84 459 102 86 356 55 65 66 May-03 68 85 68
Feb-39 4 31-Dec-85 179 241 87 345 52 62 67 Jun-03 65 86 65
Mar-39 1 31-Dec-86 134 829 88 356 50 60 69 Jul-03 62 9 87 62
Apr-39 14 31-Dec-87 292 132 89 373 47 60 71 Aug-03 60 88 60
May-39 2 31-Dec-88 1002 130 90 38 45 57 71 Sep-03 60 89 60
Jun-39 3 31-Dec-89 1576 1181 91 389 45 55 72 Oct-03 58 90 58
Jul-39 6 31-Dec-90 1426 899 92 393 44 53 73 Nov-03 57 91 57
Aug-39 15 31-Dec-91 1457 666 93 389 44 52 73 Dec-03 55 92 55
Sep-39 1 31-Dec-92 943 60 94 382 44 51 71 Jan-04 52 93 52
Oct-39 10 31-Dec-93 546 469 95 37 44 49 68 Feb-04 49 94 49
Nov-39 31-Dec-94 299 41 96 356 45 47 65 Mar-04 47 95 47
Dec-39 56 31-Dec-95 175 213 97 342 43 47 62 Apr-04 46 96 46
Jan-40 2 31-Dec-96 86 16 98 319 43 48 61 May-04 44 97 44
Feb-40 31-Dec-97 215 64 99 289 45 49 59 Jun-04 42 98 42
Mar-40 27 31-Dec-98 643 41 100 244 46 50 55 Jul-04 40 6 99 40
Apr-40 10 31-Dec-99 933 68 101 198 47 48 51 Aug-04 39 100 39
May-40 2 31-Dec-00 1196 145 102 166 47 44 46 Sep-04 38 101 38
Jun-40 5 31-Dec-01 111 34 103 133 47 40 44 Oct-04 36 102 36
Jul-40 2 31-Dec-02 104 45 104 106 48 37 43 Nov-04 35 103 35
Aug-40 31-Dec-03 55 431 105 93 47 33 41 Dec-04 35 104 35
Sep-40 3 31-Dec-04 40 475 106 86 46 32 39 Jan-05 35 105 35
Oct-40 3 31-Dec-05 32 422 107 85 44 30 37 Feb-05 34 106 34
Nov-40 2 31-Dec-06 20 281 108 79 43 30 36 Mar-05 34 107 34
Dec-40 56 31-Dec-07 12 101 109 75 43 28 34 Apr-05 32 108 32
Jan-41 0 81 110 72 41 27 31 May-05 29 109 29
Feb-41 0 25 111 39 23 32 Jun-05 29 110 29
Mar-41 13 0 0 112 37 21 31 Jul-05 29 7 111 29
Apr-41 1 0 14 113 36 21 33 Aug-05 28 112 28
May-41 0 5 114 35 20 34 Sep-05 26 113 26
Jun-41 0 122 115 33 20 34 Oct-05 26 114 26
Jul-41 8 0 139 116 31 20 34 Nov-05 25 115 25
Aug-41 4 0 354 117 30 19 35 Dec-05 23 116 23
Sep-41 12 0 458 118 29 18 35 Jan-06 21 117 21
Oct-41 0 41 119 28 17 34 Feb-06 19 118 19
Nov-41 3 0 301 120 27 16 33 Mar-06 17 119 17
Dec-41 3 44 239 121 26 14 32 Apr-06 17 120 17
Jan-42 0 156 122 24 13 31 May-06 17 121 17
Feb-42 0 66 123 23 11 28 Jun-06 16 122 16
Mar-42 8 0 4 124 21 9 25 Jul-06 15 2 123 15
Apr-42 2 0 18 125 19 9 23 Aug-06 16 124 16
May-42 0 85 126 19 8 22 Sep-06 16 125 16
Jun-42 0 166 127 18 77 21 Oct-06 14 126 14
Jul-42 0 363 128 17 19 Nov-06 13 127 13
Aug-42 1 0 496 129 15 18 Dec-06 12 128 12
Sep-42 1 0 642 130 12 16 Jan-07 12 129 12
Oct-42 5 0 67 131 10 15 Feb-07 12 130 12
Nov-42 2 0 709 132 9 14 Mar-07 11 131 11
Dec-42 19 478 133 8 14 Apr-07 10 132 10
Jan-43 1 0 275 134 7 15 May-07 9 133 9
Feb-43 1 0 85 135 6 16 Jun-07 8 134 8
Mar-43 1 0 132 136 5 16 Jul-07 7 0 135 7
Apr-43 0 569 137 5 15 Aug-07 6 136 6
May-43 0 1215 138 13 Sep-07 5 137 5
Jun-43 0 1383 139 12 Oct-07 5 138 5
Jul-43 0 1032 140 13 Nov-07 5 139 5
Aug-43 14 0 857 141 13 Dec-07 4 140 4
Sep-43 2 0 646 142 12 Jan-08 5 141 5
Oct-43 1 0 367 Feb-08 4 142 4
Nov-43 1 0 242
Dec-43 21 107
Jan-44 0 15
Feb-44 1 0 401
Mar-44 2 0 6105
Apr-44 2 0 985
May-44 0 1247
Jun-44 0 963
Jul-44 0 666
Aug-44 0 645
Sep-44 0 541
Oct-44 0 39
Nov-44 0 206
Dec-44 2 7 67
Jan-45 1 0 43
Feb-45 0 227
Mar-45 4 0 546
Apr-45 5 0 938
May-45 0 958
Jun-45 0 772
Jul-45 0 591
Aug-45 0 44
Sep-45 0 47
Oct-45 0 305
Nov-45 0 163
Dec-45 3 13 73
Jan-46 2 0 376
Feb-46 9 0 74
Mar-46 18 0 139
Apr-46 8 0 1112
May-46 3 0 1016
Jun-46 2 0 662
Jul-46 7 0 447
Aug-46 1 0 17
Sep-46 26 0 113
Oct-46 1 0 124
Nov-46 0 34
Dec-46 77 6
Jan-47 0 323
Feb-47 0 543
Mar-47 22 0 597
Apr-47 3 0 637
May-47 2 0 635
Jun-47 1 0 522
Jul-47 5 0 254
Aug-47 4 0 131
Sep-47 10 0 68
Oct-47 3 0 63
Nov-47 4 0 71
Dec-47 54 356
Jan-48 0 73
Feb-48 0 851
Mar-48 5 0 78
Apr-48 2 0 64
May-48 1 0 418
Jun-48 0 262
Jul-48 0 267
Aug-48 10 0 121
Sep-48 0 95
Oct-48 10 0 27
Nov-48 0 5
Dec-48 28 244
Jan-49 10 0 42
Feb-49 0 635
Mar-49 7 0 538
Apr-49 4 0 62
May-49 10 0 485
Jun-49 1 0 439
Jul-49 0 186
Aug-49 5 0 57
Sep-49 0 36
Oct-49 12 0 14
Nov-49 0 96
Dec-49 49 474
Jan-50 1 0 571
Feb-50 5 0 1039
Mar-50 4 0 806
Apr-50 1 0 636
May-50 3 0 376
Jun-50 1 0 261
Jul-50 1 0 142
Aug-50 11 0 58
Sep-50 1 0 167
Oct-50 5 0 443
Nov-50 1 0 639
Dec-50 34 69
Jan-51 1 0 778
Feb-51 3 0 649
Mar-51 1 0 357
Apr-51 2 0 212
May-51 6 0 111
Jun-51 3 0 57
Jul-51 4 0 87
Aug-51 0 361
Sep-51 16 0 797
Oct-51 6 0 1144
Nov-51 0 1096
Dec-51 2 44 888
Jan-52 0 678
Feb-52 3 0 475
Mar-52 10 0 306
Apr-52 10 0 163
May-52 6 0 96
Jun-52 3 0 332
Jul-52 0 926
Aug-52 0 1516
Sep-52 2 0 1363
Oct-52 3 0 1347
Nov-52 0 839
Dec-52 2 39 694
Jan-53 1 0 315
Feb-53 0 139
Mar-53 3 0 44
Apr-53 0 38
May-53 5 0 1417
Jun-53 0 1902
Jul-53 0 1848
Aug-53 1 0 159
Sep-53 4 0 1123
Oct-53 1 0 539
Nov-53 0 376
Dec-53 15 279
Jan-54 0 102
Feb-54 0 151
Mar-54 3 0 47
Apr-54 0 937
May-54 0 1059
Jun-54 0 1055
Jul-54 0 1045
Aug-54 0 666
Sep-54 1 0 689
Oct-54 0 38
Nov-54 0 345
Dec-54 4 155
Jan-55 3 0 126
Feb-55 0 275
Mar-55 0 925
Apr-55 3 0 1554
May-55 1 0 1546
Jun-55 0 1405
Jul-55 0 1159
Aug-55 0 666
Sep-55 1 0 459
Oct-55 0 179
Nov-55 1 0 134
Dec-55 9 292
Jan-56 0 1002
Feb-56 5 0 1576
Mar-56 4 0 1426
Apr-56 18 0 1457
May-56 15 0 943
Jun-56 1 0 546
Jul-56 0 299
Aug-56 3 0 175
Sep-56 5 0 86
Oct-56 1 0 215
Nov-56 9 0 643
Dec-56 61 933
Jan-57 4 0 1196
Feb-57 2 0 111
Mar-57 12 0 104
Apr-57 4 0
May-57 0
Jun-57 8 0
Jul-57 1 0
Aug-57 0
Sep-57 37 0
Oct-57 1 0
Nov-57 3 0
Dec-57 72
Jan-58 1 0
Feb-58 5 0
Mar-58 4 0
Apr-58 0
May-58 3 0
Jun-58 10 0
Jul-58 9 0
Aug-58 9 0
Sep-58 10 0
Oct-58 3 0
Nov-58 0
Dec-58 3 57
Jan-59 0
Feb-59 1 0
Mar-59 13 0
Apr-59 5 0
May-59 6 0
Jun-59 0
Jul-59 15 0
Aug-59 10 0
Sep-59 10 0
Oct-59 3 0
Nov-59 3 0
Dec-59 2 68
Jan-60 0
Feb-60 0
Mar-60 6 0
Apr-60 26 0
May-60 10 0
Jun-60 4 0
Jul-60 5 0
Aug-60 7 0
Sep-60 9 0
Oct-60 17 0
Nov-60 13 0
Dec-60 1 98
Jan-61 0
Feb-61 3 0
Mar-61 2 0
Apr-61 4 0
May-61 0
Jun-61 2 0
Jul-61 12 0
Aug-61 0
Sep-61 1 0
Oct-61 8 0
Nov-61 0
Dec-61 2 34
Jan-62 0
Feb-62 0
Mar-62 0
Apr-62 0
May-62 0
Jun-62 0
Jul-62 0
Aug-62 0
Sep-62 0
Oct-62 2 0
Nov-62 0
Dec-62 1 3
Jan-63 0
Feb-63 0
Mar-63 0
Apr-63 0
May-63 0
Jun-63 1 0
Jul-63 0
Aug-63 2 0
Sep-63 11 0
Oct-63 5 0
Nov-63 0
Dec-63 19
Jan-64 1 0
Feb-64 0
Mar-64 0
Apr-64 1 0
May-64 0
Jun-64 1 0
Jul-64 0
Aug-64 0
Sep-64 2 0
Oct-64 0
Nov-64 0
Dec-64 5
Jan-65 0
Feb-65 0
Mar-65 0
Apr-65 2 0
May-65 0
Jun-65 2 0
Jul-65 0
Aug-65 0
Sep-65 0
Oct-65 0
Nov-65 0
Dec-65 4
Jan-66 0
Feb-66 0
Mar-66 6 0
Apr-66 0
May-66 4 0
Jun-66 0
Jul-66 0
Aug-66 3 0
Sep-66 5 0
Oct-66 0
Nov-66 0
Dec-66 1 19
Jan-67 3 0
Feb-67 2 0
Mar-67 0
Apr-67 0
May-67 16 0
Jun-67 3 0
Jul-67 0
Aug-67 0
Sep-67 3 0
Oct-67 0
Nov-67 0
Dec-67 27
Jan-68 0
Feb-68 0
Mar-68 0
Apr-68 1 0
May-68 2 0
Jun-68 4 0
Jul-68 0
Aug-68 0
Sep-68 0
Oct-68 4 0
Nov-68 7 0
Dec-68 18
Jan-69 0
Feb-69 2 0
Mar-69 5 0
Apr-69 0
May-69 2 0
Jun-69 0
Jul-69 0
Aug-69 0
Sep-69 1 0
Oct-69 0
Nov-69 0
Dec-69 10
Jan-70 0
Feb-70 0
Mar-70 4 0
Apr-70 4 0
May-70 1 0
Jun-70 0
Jul-70 7 0
Aug-70 4 0
Sep-70 0
Oct-70 1 0
Nov-70 1 0
Dec-70 1 23
Jan-71 0
Feb-71 0
Mar-71 0
Apr-71 2 0
May-71 1 0
Jun-71 0
Jul-71 0
Aug-71 0
Sep-71 1 0
Oct-71 0
Nov-71 0
Dec-71 2 6
Jan-72 0
Feb-72 0
Mar-72 1 0
Apr-72 0
May-72 1 0
Jun-72 7 0
Jul-72 0
Aug-72 18 0
Sep-72 4 0
Oct-72 1 0
Nov-72 3 0
Dec-72 1 36
Jan-73 0
Feb-73 2 0
Mar-73 5 0
Apr-73 6 0
May-73 3 0
Jun-73 0
Jul-73 0
Aug-73 0
Sep-73 3 0
Oct-73 3 0
Nov-73 0
Dec-73 22
Jan-74 0
Feb-74 0
Mar-74 3 0
Apr-74 0
May-74 0
Jun-74 0
Jul-74 7 0
Aug-74 0
Sep-74 6 0
Oct-74 4 0
Nov-74 1 0
Dec-74 21
Jan-75 1 0
Feb-75 0
Mar-75 3 0
Apr-75 0
May-75 0
Jun-75 0
Jul-75 1 0
Aug-75 0
Sep-75 0
Oct-75 1 0
Nov-75 1 0
Dec-75 7
Jan-76 3 0
Feb-76 0
Mar-76 6 0
Apr-76 3 0
May-76 6 0
Jun-76 1 0
Jul-76 0
Aug-76 0
Sep-76 0
Oct-76 0
Nov-76 0
Dec-76 19
Jan-77 0
Feb-77 0
Mar-77 0
Apr-77 2 0
May-77 0
Jun-77 0
Jul-77 2 0
Aug-77 0
Sep-77 3 0
Oct-77 3 0
Nov-77 0
Dec-77 2 12
Jan-78 2 0
Feb-78 2 0
Mar-78 2 0
Apr-78 6 0
May-78 17 0
Jun-78 5 0
Jul-78 4 0
Aug-78 4 0
Sep-78 5 0
Oct-78 0
Nov-78 1 0
Dec-78 48
Jan-79 0
Feb-79 1 0
Mar-79 4 0
Apr-79 9 0
May-79 1 0
Jun-79 1 0
Jul-79 0
Aug-79 7 0
Sep-79 1 0
Oct-79 0
Nov-79 0
Dec-79 24
Jan-80 0
Feb-80 1 0
Mar-80 0
Apr-80 0
May-80 0
Jun-80 0
Jul-80 2 0
Aug-80 0
Sep-80 0
Oct-80 0
Nov-80 0
Dec-80 3 6
Jan-81 0
Feb-81 1 0
Mar-81 3 0
Apr-81 7 0
May-81 6 0
Jun-81 1 0
Jul-81 7 0
Aug-81 0
Sep-81 0
Oct-81 8 0
Nov-81 1 0
Dec-81 34
Jan-82 0
Feb-82 2 0
Mar-82 6 0
Apr-82 2 0
May-82 0
Jun-82 2 0
Jul-82 13 0
Aug-82 5 0
Sep-82 23 0
Oct-82 0
Nov-82 5 0
Dec-82 3 61
Jan-83 3 0
Feb-83 9 0
Mar-83 4 0
Apr-83 1 0
May-83 5 0
Jun-83 2 0
Jul-83 2 0
Aug-83 2 0
Sep-83 10 0
Oct-83 1 0
Nov-83 1 0
Dec-83 40
Jan-84 0
Feb-84 3 0
Mar-84 2 0
Apr-84 7 0
May-84 0
Jun-84 1 0
Jul-84 2 0
Aug-84 2 0
Sep-84 10 0
Oct-84 3 0
Nov-84 5 0
Dec-84 35
Jan-85 0
Feb-85 3 0
Mar-85 0
Apr-85 8 0
May-85 0
Jun-85 0
Jul-85 1 0
Aug-85 0
Sep-85 0
Oct-85 1 0
Nov-85 3 0
Dec-85 16
Jan-86 0
Feb-86 13 0
Mar-86 0
Apr-86 0
May-86 3 0
Jun-86 0
Jul-86 2 0
Aug-86 0
Sep-86 2 0
Oct-86 1 0
Nov-86 1 0
Dec-86 22
Jan-87 0
Feb-87 0
Mar-87 0
Apr-87 0
May-87 0
Jun-87 0
Jul-87 2 0
Aug-87 0
Sep-87 0
Oct-87 0
Nov-87 0
Dec-87 2
Jan-88 3 0
Feb-88 4 0
Mar-88 2 0
Apr-88 2 0
May-88 5 0
Jun-88 0
Jul-88 0
Aug-88 0
Sep-88 0
Oct-88 2 0
Nov-88 0
Dec-88 18
Jan-89 1 0
Feb-89 0
Mar-89 17 0
Apr-89 2 0
May-89 2 0
Jun-89 2 0
Jul-89 0
Aug-89 8 0
Sep-89 5 0
Oct-89 11 0
Nov-89 7 0
Dec-89 2 57
Jan-90 0
Feb-90 3 0
Mar-90 5 0
Apr-90 11 0
May-90 2 0
Jun-90 6 0
Jul-90 6 0
Aug-90 3 0
Sep-90 1 0
Oct-90 0
Nov-90 1 0
Dec-90 38
Jan-91 0
Feb-91 0
Mar-91 15 0
Apr-91 2 0
May-91 1 0
Jun-91 33 0
Jul-91 14 0
Aug-91 8 0
Sep-91 1 0
Oct-91 5 0
Nov-91 6 0
Dec-91 85
Jan-92 0
Feb-92 15 0
Mar-92 0
Apr-92 0
May-92 9 0
Jun-92 1 0
Jul-92 0
Aug-92 3 0
Sep-92 11 0
Oct-92 0
Nov-92 0
Dec-92 39
Jan-93 0
Feb-93 1 0
Mar-93 4 0
Apr-93 4 0
May-93 0
Jun-93 1 0
Jul-93 0
Aug-93 2 0
Sep-93 2 0
Oct-93 1 0
Nov-93 1 0
Dec-93 1 17
Jan-94 0
Feb-94 6 0
Mar-94 1 0
Apr-94 9 0
May-94 5 0
Jun-94 0
Jul-94 0
Aug-94 0
Sep-94 0
Oct-94 6 0
Nov-94 0
Dec-94 27
Jan-95 0
Feb-95 0
Mar-95 0
Apr-95 3 0
May-95 0
Jun-95 0
Jul-95 0
Aug-95 0
Sep-95 1 0
Oct-95 4 0
Nov-95 0
Dec-95 8
Jan-96 0
Feb-96 0
Mar-96 0
Apr-96 1 0
May-96 0
Jun-96 0
Jul-96 0
Aug-96 0
Sep-96 0
Oct-96 2 0
Nov-96 0
Dec-96 3
Jan-97 0
Feb-97 1 0
Mar-97 0
Apr-97 1 0
May-97 2 0
Jun-97 0
Jul-97 0
Aug-97 0
Sep-97 0
Oct-97 1 0
Nov-97 3 0
Dec-97 8
Jan-98 0
Feb-98 1 0
Mar-98 1 0
Apr-98 0
May-98 5 0
Jun-98 0
Jul-98 0
Aug-98 9 0
Sep-98 4 0
Oct-98 4 0
Nov-98 1 0
Dec-98 4 29
Jan-99 1 0
Feb-99 3 0
Mar-99 0
Apr-99 1 0
May-99 0
Jun-99 0
Jul-99 1 0
Aug-99 0
Sep-99 1 0
Oct-99 3 0
Nov-99 0
Dec-99 10
Jan-00 0
Feb-00 1 0
Mar-00 0
Apr-00 4 0
May-00 3 0
Jun-00 1 0
Jul-00 8 0
Aug-00 5 0
Sep-00 2 0
Oct-00 7 0
Nov-00 4 0
Dec-00 35
Jan-01 0
Feb-01 0
Mar-01 10 0
Apr-01 9 0
May-01 0
Jun-01 0
Jul-01 0
Aug-01 1 0
Sep-01 1 0
Oct-01 11 0
Nov-01 8 0
Dec-01 40
Jan-02 0
Feb-02 0
Mar-02 0
Apr-02 7 0
May-02 5 0
Jun-02 0
Jul-02 0
Aug-02 0
Sep-02 4 0
Oct-02 6 0
Nov-02 1 0
Dec-02 23
Jan-03 0
Feb-03 0
Mar-03 0
Apr-03 0
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
Page 5: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Solar Cycle Updatebull Cycle 23 began in May 1996 bull Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120bull Solar Minimum in December 2008bull Solar Cycle 24 Underway

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Smoo

thed

Sun

spot

Num

ber

Sunspot Solar Cycles

2317161514 21201918 22

Chart1

23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12

Sheet1

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
1 Cycle 2 Cycle 10 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 Cycle 23 Cycle 23
Jan-32 1 31-Dec-32 4 111 31-Dec-32 111 277 31-Dec-00 95 1-Jan-00 5 2 112 32 4 10 May-96 8 1 8
Feb-32 31-Dec-33 3 57 31-Dec-33 57 312 31-Dec-01 27 11 3 121 33 4 10 Jun-96 9 2 9
Mar-32 31-Dec-34 0 87 31-Dec-34 87 252 31-Dec-02 5 16 4 135 36 5 11 Jul-96 8 0 3 8
Apr-32 31-Dec-35 0 361 31-Dec-35 361 Oct-60 258 31-Dec-03 244 23 5 145 39 5 12 Aug-96 8 4 8
May-32 2 31-Dec-36 5 797 31-Dec-36 797 Nov-60 293 31-Dec-04 42 36 6 159 39 6 12 Sep-96 8 5 8
Jun-32 31-Dec-37 25 1144 31-Dec-37 1144 Mar-89 285 31-Dec-05 635 58 7 172 38 6 13 Oct-96 9 6 9
Jul-32 1 31-Dec-38 46 1096 31-Dec-38 1096 Mar-60 251 31-Dec-06 538 29 8 186 41 7 14 Nov-96 10 7 10
Aug-32 31-Dec-39 56 888 31-Dec-39 888 May-67 241 31-Dec-07 62 20 9 206 49 7 15 Dec-96 10 8 10
Sep-32 31-Dec-40 56 678 Mar-40 8529 8529 Jul-82 229 31-Dec-08 485 10 10 229 55 7 15 Jan-97 11 9 11
Oct-32 31-Dec-41 44 475 31-Dec-40 678 Feb-86 228 31-Dec-09 439 8 11 26 58 8 16 Feb-97 11 10 11
Nov-32 31-Dec-42 19 306 Sep-41 5440 5440 Mar-40 226 31-Dec-10 186 3 12 293 62 9 16 Mar-97 14 11 14
Dec-32 4 31-Dec-43 21 163 31-Dec-41 475 223 31-Dec-11 57 0 13 329 76 11 17 Apr-97 17 12 17
Jan-33 31-Dec-44 7 96 31-Dec-42 306 222 31-Dec-12 36 0 14 364 92 12 20 May-97 18 13 18
Feb-33 31-Dec-45 13 332 31-Dec-43 163 221 31-Dec-13 14 2 15 389 104 13 22 Jun-97 20 14 20
Mar-33 31-Dec-46 77 926 31-Dec-44 96 216 31-Dec-14 96 11 16 415 116 13 25 Jul-97 23 2 15 23
Apr-33 31-Dec-47 54 1516 31-Dec-45 332 215 31-Dec-15 474 27 17 431 137 15 28 Aug-97 25 16 25
May-33 1 31-Dec-48 28 1363 31-Dec-46 926 214 31-Dec-16 571 47 18 437 167 18 31 Sep-97 28 17 28
Jun-33 31-Dec-49 49 1347 31-Dec-47 1516 212 31-Dec-17 1039 63 19 461 192 20 35 Oct-97 32 18 32
Jul-33 31-Dec-50 34 839 31-Dec-48 1363 212 31-Dec-18 806 60 20 499 215 22 37 Nov-97 35 19 35
Aug-33 1 31-Dec-51 44 694 31-Dec-49 1347 203 31-Dec-19 636 39 21 53 238 26 41 Dec-97 39 20 39
Sep-33 1 31-Dec-52 39 315 31-Dec-50 839 201 31-Dec-20 376 28 22 58 26 30 45 Jan-98 44 21 44
Oct-33 31-Dec-53 15 139 31-Dec-51 694 199 31-Dec-21 261 26 23 61 293 34 50 Feb-98 49 22 49
Nov-33 31-Dec-54 4 44 31-Dec-52 315 199 31-Dec-22 142 22 24 64 326 38 57 Mar-98 54 23 54
Dec-33 3 31-Dec-55 9 38 31-Dec-53 139 196 31-Dec-23 58 11 25 67 341 42 63 Apr-98 57 24 57
Jan-34 31-Dec-56 61 1417 31-Dec-54 44 196 31-Dec-24 167 21 26 71 36 47 68 May-98 59 25 59
Feb-34 31-Dec-57 72 1902 31-Dec-55 38 195 31-Dec-25 443 40 27 72 386 51 70 Jun-98 63 26 63
Mar-34 31-Dec-58 57 1848 31-Dec-56 1417 193 31-Dec-26 639 78 28 72 42 55 73 Jul-98 66 8 27 66
Apr-34 31-Dec-59 68 159 31-Dec-57 1902 192 31-Dec-27 69 122 29 75 45 57 75 Aug-98 68 28 68
May-34 31-Dec-60 98 1123 31-Dec-58 1848 186 31-Dec-28 778 103 30 77 49 59 79 Sep-98 70 29 70
Jun-34 31-Dec-61 34 539 Jul-59 17201 17201 186 31-Dec-29 649 73 31 77 52 62 82 Oct-98 71 30 71
Jul-34 31-Dec-62 3 376 31-Dec-59 159 185 31-Dec-30 357 47 32 78 54 66 85 Nov-98 73 31 73
Aug-34 31-Dec-63 19 279 Oct-60 12433 12433 183 31-Dec-31 212 35 33 81 57 69 88 Dec-98 78 32 78
Sep-34 31-Dec-64 5 102 Nov-60 12049 12049 181 31-Dec-32 111 11 34 86 61 72 91 Jan-99 83 33 83
Oct-34 31-Dec-65 4 151 31-Dec-60 1123 181 31-Dec-33 57 5 35 92 64 77 94 Feb-99 85 34 85
Nov-34 31-Dec-66 19 47 31-Dec-61 539 179 31-Dec-34 87 16 36 84 68 83 95 Mar-99 84 35 84
Dec-34 0 31-Dec-67 27 937 31-Dec-62 376 174 31-Dec-35 361 34 37 104 72 88 95 Apr-99 86 36 86
Jan-35 31-Dec-68 18 1059 31-Dec-63 279 173 31-Dec-36 797 70 38 106 76 90 95 May-99 91 37 91
Feb-35 31-Dec-69 10 1055 31-Dec-64 102 173 31-Dec-37 1144 81 39 107 79 92 97 Jun-99 93 38 93
Mar-35 31-Dec-70 23 1045 31-Dec-65 151 171 31-Dec-38 1096 111 40 112 83 96 101 Jul-99 94 5 39 94
Apr-35 31-Dec-71 6 666 31-Dec-66 47 168 31-Dec-39 888 101 41 116 86 101 102 Aug-99 98 40 98
May-35 31-Dec-72 36 689 31-Dec-67 937 31-Dec-40 678 73 42 115 88 108 112 Sep-99 102 41 102
Jun-35 31-Dec-73 22 38 31-Dec-68 1059 31-Dec-41 475 40 43 113 91 114 105 Oct-99 108 42 108
Jul-35 31-Dec-74 21 345 31-Dec-69 1055 31-Dec-42 306 20 44 112 93 117 107 Nov-99 111 43 111
Aug-35 31-Dec-75 7 155 31-Dec-70 1045 31-Dec-43 163 16 45 111 94 119 108 Dec-99 111 44 111
Sep-35 31-Dec-76 19 126 31-Dec-71 666 31-Dec-44 96 5 46 111 94 119 107 Jan-00 113 45 113
Oct-35 31-Dec-77 12 275 31-Dec-72 689 31-Dec-45 332 11 47 109 94 116 105 Feb-00 117 46 117
Nov-35 31-Dec-78 48 925 31-Dec-73 38 31-Dec-46 926 22 48 105 94 113 105 Mar-00 120 47 120
Dec-35 0 31-Dec-79 24 1554 31-Dec-74 345 31-Dec-47 1516 40 49 101 94 111 107 Apr-00 121 48 121
Jan-36 31-Dec-80 6 1546 31-Dec-75 155 31-Dec-48 1363 60 50 101 96 111 111 May-00 119 49 119
Feb-36 31-Dec-81 34 1405 31-Dec-76 126 31-Dec-49 1347 80 51 98 97 111 111 Jun-00 119 50 119
Mar-36 31-Dec-82 61 1159 31-Dec-77 275 31-Dec-50 839 83 52 91 98 111 110 Jul-00 120 13 51 120
Apr-36 1 31-Dec-83 40 666 31-Dec-78 925 31-Dec-51 694 477 53 86 97 110 110 Aug-00 119 52 119
May-36 31-Dec-84 35 459 31-Dec-79 1554 31-Dec-52 315 478 54 85 96 110 110 Sep-00 116 53 116
Jun-36 2 31-Dec-85 16 179 31-Dec-80 1546 31-Dec-53 139 307 55 89 95 110 108 Oct-00 115 54 115
Jul-36 31-Dec-86 22 134 31-Dec-81 1405 31-Dec-54 44 122 56 94 95 108 106 Nov-00 113 55 113
Aug-36 31-Dec-87 2 292 31-Dec-82 1159 31-Dec-55 38 96 57 94 95 106 106 Dec-00 112 56 112
Sep-36 31-Dec-88 18 1002 31-Dec-83 666 31-Dec-56 1417 102 58 89 94 107 106 Jan-01 109 57 109
Oct-36 31-Dec-89 57 1576 31-Dec-84 459 31-Dec-57 1902 324 59 86 93 109 106 Feb-01 104 58 107
Nov-36 2 31-Dec-90 38 1426 31-Dec-85 179 31-Dec-58 1848 476 60 85 95 109 107 Mar-01 105 59 105
Dec-36 5 31-Dec-91 85 1457 31-Dec-86 134 31-Dec-59 159 54 61 84 94 106 104 Apr-01 108 60 108
Jan-37 31-Dec-92 39 943 31-Dec-87 292 31-Dec-60 1123 629 62 82 91 104 105 May-01 109 61 109
Feb-37 1 31-Dec-93 17 546 31-Dec-88 1002 31-Dec-61 539 859 63 84 88 103 105 Jun-01 110 62 110
Mar-37 1 31-Dec-94 27 299 31-Dec-89 1576 31-Dec-62 376 612 64 89 96 103 105 Jul-01 112 22 63 112
Apr-37 13 31-Dec-95 8 175 31-Dec-90 1426 31-Dec-63 279 45 65 90 85 103 106 Aug-01 114 64 114
May-37 2 31-Dec-96 3 86 31-Dec-91 1457 31-Dec-64 102 364 66 905 83 100 106 Sep-01 114 65 114
Jun-37 31-Dec-97 8 215 31-Dec-92 943 31-Dec-65 151 209 67 869 80 97 106 Oct-01 114 66 114
Jul-37 31-Dec-98 29 643 31-Dec-93 546 31-Dec-66 47 114 68 795 78 97 106 Nov-01 116 67 116
Aug-37 2 31-Dec-99 10 933 31-Dec-94 299 31-Dec-67 937 378 69 773 77 98 107 Dec-01 115 68 115
Sep-37 1 31-Dec-00 35 1196 31-Dec-95 175 31-Dec-68 1059 698 70 776 77 95 105 Jan-02 114 69 114
Oct-37 5 31-Dec-01 40 111 31-Dec-96 86 31-Dec-69 1055 1061 71 754 74 91 104 Feb-02 115 70 115
Nov-37 31-Dec-02 23 104 31-Dec-97 215 31-Dec-70 1045 108 72 728 70 88 101 Mar-02 113 71 113
Dec-37 25 31-Dec-98 643 31-Dec-71 666 816 73 707 78 86 97 Apr-02 111 72 111
Jan-38 14 31-Dec-99 933 31-Dec-72 689 665 74 678 68 86 94 May-02 109 73 109
Feb-38 1 31-Dec-00 1196 31-Dec-73 38 348 75 646 68 84 89 Jun-02 106 74 106
Mar-38 31-Dec-01 111 31-Dec-74 345 306 76 601 66 80 84 Jul-02 103 19 75 103
Apr-38 6 31-Dec-02 104 31-Dec-75 155 7 77 583 65 76 80 Aug-02 99 76 99
May-38 7 31-Dec-76 126 198 78 567 64 74 78 Sep-02 95 77 95
Jun-38 31-Dec-77 275 926 79 543 63 73 74 Oct-02 91 78 91
Jul-38 2 31-Dec-78 925 1544 80 533 61 71 71 Nov-02 85 79 85
Aug-38 2 31-Dec-79 1554 1259 81 50 58 68 68 Dec-02 82 80 82
Sep-38 8 31-Dec-80 1546 848 82 461 58 66 67 Jan-03 81 81 81
Oct-38 6 31-Dec-81 1405 681 83 435 58 67 65 Feb-03 78 82 78
Nov-38 31-Dec-82 1159 385 84 404 59 68 65 Mar-03 74 83 74
Dec-38 46 31-Dec-83 666 228 85 374 58 67 66 Apr-03 70 84 70
Jan-39 31-Dec-84 459 102 86 356 55 65 66 May-03 68 85 68
Feb-39 4 31-Dec-85 179 241 87 345 52 62 67 Jun-03 65 86 65
Mar-39 1 31-Dec-86 134 829 88 356 50 60 69 Jul-03 62 9 87 62
Apr-39 14 31-Dec-87 292 132 89 373 47 60 71 Aug-03 60 88 60
May-39 2 31-Dec-88 1002 130 90 38 45 57 71 Sep-03 60 89 60
Jun-39 3 31-Dec-89 1576 1181 91 389 45 55 72 Oct-03 58 90 58
Jul-39 6 31-Dec-90 1426 899 92 393 44 53 73 Nov-03 57 91 57
Aug-39 15 31-Dec-91 1457 666 93 389 44 52 73 Dec-03 55 92 55
Sep-39 1 31-Dec-92 943 60 94 382 44 51 71 Jan-04 52 93 52
Oct-39 10 31-Dec-93 546 469 95 37 44 49 68 Feb-04 49 94 49
Nov-39 31-Dec-94 299 41 96 356 45 47 65 Mar-04 47 95 47
Dec-39 56 31-Dec-95 175 213 97 342 43 47 62 Apr-04 46 96 46
Jan-40 2 31-Dec-96 86 16 98 319 43 48 61 May-04 44 97 44
Feb-40 31-Dec-97 215 64 99 289 45 49 59 Jun-04 42 98 42
Mar-40 27 31-Dec-98 643 41 100 244 46 50 55 Jul-04 40 6 99 40
Apr-40 10 31-Dec-99 933 68 101 198 47 48 51 Aug-04 39 100 39
May-40 2 31-Dec-00 1196 145 102 166 47 44 46 Sep-04 38 101 38
Jun-40 5 31-Dec-01 111 34 103 133 47 40 44 Oct-04 36 102 36
Jul-40 2 31-Dec-02 104 45 104 106 48 37 43 Nov-04 35 103 35
Aug-40 31-Dec-03 55 431 105 93 47 33 41 Dec-04 35 104 35
Sep-40 3 31-Dec-04 40 475 106 86 46 32 39 Jan-05 35 105 35
Oct-40 3 31-Dec-05 32 422 107 85 44 30 37 Feb-05 34 106 34
Nov-40 2 31-Dec-06 20 281 108 79 43 30 36 Mar-05 34 107 34
Dec-40 56 31-Dec-07 12 101 109 75 43 28 34 Apr-05 32 108 32
Jan-41 0 81 110 72 41 27 31 May-05 29 109 29
Feb-41 0 25 111 39 23 32 Jun-05 29 110 29
Mar-41 13 0 0 112 37 21 31 Jul-05 29 7 111 29
Apr-41 1 0 14 113 36 21 33 Aug-05 28 112 28
May-41 0 5 114 35 20 34 Sep-05 26 113 26
Jun-41 0 122 115 33 20 34 Oct-05 26 114 26
Jul-41 8 0 139 116 31 20 34 Nov-05 25 115 25
Aug-41 4 0 354 117 30 19 35 Dec-05 23 116 23
Sep-41 12 0 458 118 29 18 35 Jan-06 21 117 21
Oct-41 0 41 119 28 17 34 Feb-06 19 118 19
Nov-41 3 0 301 120 27 16 33 Mar-06 17 119 17
Dec-41 3 44 239 121 26 14 32 Apr-06 17 120 17
Jan-42 0 156 122 24 13 31 May-06 17 121 17
Feb-42 0 66 123 23 11 28 Jun-06 16 122 16
Mar-42 8 0 4 124 21 9 25 Jul-06 15 2 123 15
Apr-42 2 0 18 125 19 9 23 Aug-06 16 124 16
May-42 0 85 126 19 8 22 Sep-06 16 125 16
Jun-42 0 166 127 18 77 21 Oct-06 14 126 14
Jul-42 0 363 128 17 19 Nov-06 13 127 13
Aug-42 1 0 496 129 15 18 Dec-06 12 128 12
Sep-42 1 0 642 130 12 16 Jan-07 12 129 12
Oct-42 5 0 67 131 10 15 Feb-07 12 130 12
Nov-42 2 0 709 132 9 14 Mar-07 11 131 11
Dec-42 19 478 133 8 14 Apr-07 10 132 10
Jan-43 1 0 275 134 7 15 May-07 9 133 9
Feb-43 1 0 85 135 6 16 Jun-07 8 134 8
Mar-43 1 0 132 136 5 16 Jul-07 7 0 135 7
Apr-43 0 569 137 5 15 Aug-07 6 136 6
May-43 0 1215 138 13 Sep-07 5 137 5
Jun-43 0 1383 139 12 Oct-07 5 138 5
Jul-43 0 1032 140 13 Nov-07 5 139 5
Aug-43 14 0 857 141 13 Dec-07 4 140 4
Sep-43 2 0 646 142 12 Jan-08 5 141 5
Oct-43 1 0 367 Feb-08 4 142 4
Nov-43 1 0 242
Dec-43 21 107
Jan-44 0 15
Feb-44 1 0 401
Mar-44 2 0 6105
Apr-44 2 0 985
May-44 0 1247
Jun-44 0 963
Jul-44 0 666
Aug-44 0 645
Sep-44 0 541
Oct-44 0 39
Nov-44 0 206
Dec-44 2 7 67
Jan-45 1 0 43
Feb-45 0 227
Mar-45 4 0 546
Apr-45 5 0 938
May-45 0 958
Jun-45 0 772
Jul-45 0 591
Aug-45 0 44
Sep-45 0 47
Oct-45 0 305
Nov-45 0 163
Dec-45 3 13 73
Jan-46 2 0 376
Feb-46 9 0 74
Mar-46 18 0 139
Apr-46 8 0 1112
May-46 3 0 1016
Jun-46 2 0 662
Jul-46 7 0 447
Aug-46 1 0 17
Sep-46 26 0 113
Oct-46 1 0 124
Nov-46 0 34
Dec-46 77 6
Jan-47 0 323
Feb-47 0 543
Mar-47 22 0 597
Apr-47 3 0 637
May-47 2 0 635
Jun-47 1 0 522
Jul-47 5 0 254
Aug-47 4 0 131
Sep-47 10 0 68
Oct-47 3 0 63
Nov-47 4 0 71
Dec-47 54 356
Jan-48 0 73
Feb-48 0 851
Mar-48 5 0 78
Apr-48 2 0 64
May-48 1 0 418
Jun-48 0 262
Jul-48 0 267
Aug-48 10 0 121
Sep-48 0 95
Oct-48 10 0 27
Nov-48 0 5
Dec-48 28 244
Jan-49 10 0 42
Feb-49 0 635
Mar-49 7 0 538
Apr-49 4 0 62
May-49 10 0 485
Jun-49 1 0 439
Jul-49 0 186
Aug-49 5 0 57
Sep-49 0 36
Oct-49 12 0 14
Nov-49 0 96
Dec-49 49 474
Jan-50 1 0 571
Feb-50 5 0 1039
Mar-50 4 0 806
Apr-50 1 0 636
May-50 3 0 376
Jun-50 1 0 261
Jul-50 1 0 142
Aug-50 11 0 58
Sep-50 1 0 167
Oct-50 5 0 443
Nov-50 1 0 639
Dec-50 34 69
Jan-51 1 0 778
Feb-51 3 0 649
Mar-51 1 0 357
Apr-51 2 0 212
May-51 6 0 111
Jun-51 3 0 57
Jul-51 4 0 87
Aug-51 0 361
Sep-51 16 0 797
Oct-51 6 0 1144
Nov-51 0 1096
Dec-51 2 44 888
Jan-52 0 678
Feb-52 3 0 475
Mar-52 10 0 306
Apr-52 10 0 163
May-52 6 0 96
Jun-52 3 0 332
Jul-52 0 926
Aug-52 0 1516
Sep-52 2 0 1363
Oct-52 3 0 1347
Nov-52 0 839
Dec-52 2 39 694
Jan-53 1 0 315
Feb-53 0 139
Mar-53 3 0 44
Apr-53 0 38
May-53 5 0 1417
Jun-53 0 1902
Jul-53 0 1848
Aug-53 1 0 159
Sep-53 4 0 1123
Oct-53 1 0 539
Nov-53 0 376
Dec-53 15 279
Jan-54 0 102
Feb-54 0 151
Mar-54 3 0 47
Apr-54 0 937
May-54 0 1059
Jun-54 0 1055
Jul-54 0 1045
Aug-54 0 666
Sep-54 1 0 689
Oct-54 0 38
Nov-54 0 345
Dec-54 4 155
Jan-55 3 0 126
Feb-55 0 275
Mar-55 0 925
Apr-55 3 0 1554
May-55 1 0 1546
Jun-55 0 1405
Jul-55 0 1159
Aug-55 0 666
Sep-55 1 0 459
Oct-55 0 179
Nov-55 1 0 134
Dec-55 9 292
Jan-56 0 1002
Feb-56 5 0 1576
Mar-56 4 0 1426
Apr-56 18 0 1457
May-56 15 0 943
Jun-56 1 0 546
Jul-56 0 299
Aug-56 3 0 175
Sep-56 5 0 86
Oct-56 1 0 215
Nov-56 9 0 643
Dec-56 61 933
Jan-57 4 0 1196
Feb-57 2 0 111
Mar-57 12 0 104
Apr-57 4 0
May-57 0
Jun-57 8 0
Jul-57 1 0
Aug-57 0
Sep-57 37 0
Oct-57 1 0
Nov-57 3 0
Dec-57 72
Jan-58 1 0
Feb-58 5 0
Mar-58 4 0
Apr-58 0
May-58 3 0
Jun-58 10 0
Jul-58 9 0
Aug-58 9 0
Sep-58 10 0
Oct-58 3 0
Nov-58 0
Dec-58 3 57
Jan-59 0
Feb-59 1 0
Mar-59 13 0
Apr-59 5 0
May-59 6 0
Jun-59 0
Jul-59 15 0
Aug-59 10 0
Sep-59 10 0
Oct-59 3 0
Nov-59 3 0
Dec-59 2 68
Jan-60 0
Feb-60 0
Mar-60 6 0
Apr-60 26 0
May-60 10 0
Jun-60 4 0
Jul-60 5 0
Aug-60 7 0
Sep-60 9 0
Oct-60 17 0
Nov-60 13 0
Dec-60 1 98
Jan-61 0
Feb-61 3 0
Mar-61 2 0
Apr-61 4 0
May-61 0
Jun-61 2 0
Jul-61 12 0
Aug-61 0
Sep-61 1 0
Oct-61 8 0
Nov-61 0
Dec-61 2 34
Jan-62 0
Feb-62 0
Mar-62 0
Apr-62 0
May-62 0
Jun-62 0
Jul-62 0
Aug-62 0
Sep-62 0
Oct-62 2 0
Nov-62 0
Dec-62 1 3
Jan-63 0
Feb-63 0
Mar-63 0
Apr-63 0
May-63 0
Jun-63 1 0
Jul-63 0
Aug-63 2 0
Sep-63 11 0
Oct-63 5 0
Nov-63 0
Dec-63 19
Jan-64 1 0
Feb-64 0
Mar-64 0
Apr-64 1 0
May-64 0
Jun-64 1 0
Jul-64 0
Aug-64 0
Sep-64 2 0
Oct-64 0
Nov-64 0
Dec-64 5
Jan-65 0
Feb-65 0
Mar-65 0
Apr-65 2 0
May-65 0
Jun-65 2 0
Jul-65 0
Aug-65 0
Sep-65 0
Oct-65 0
Nov-65 0
Dec-65 4
Jan-66 0
Feb-66 0
Mar-66 6 0
Apr-66 0
May-66 4 0
Jun-66 0
Jul-66 0
Aug-66 3 0
Sep-66 5 0
Oct-66 0
Nov-66 0
Dec-66 1 19
Jan-67 3 0
Feb-67 2 0
Mar-67 0
Apr-67 0
May-67 16 0
Jun-67 3 0
Jul-67 0
Aug-67 0
Sep-67 3 0
Oct-67 0
Nov-67 0
Dec-67 27
Jan-68 0
Feb-68 0
Mar-68 0
Apr-68 1 0
May-68 2 0
Jun-68 4 0
Jul-68 0
Aug-68 0
Sep-68 0
Oct-68 4 0
Nov-68 7 0
Dec-68 18
Jan-69 0
Feb-69 2 0
Mar-69 5 0
Apr-69 0
May-69 2 0
Jun-69 0
Jul-69 0
Aug-69 0
Sep-69 1 0
Oct-69 0
Nov-69 0
Dec-69 10
Jan-70 0
Feb-70 0
Mar-70 4 0
Apr-70 4 0
May-70 1 0
Jun-70 0
Jul-70 7 0
Aug-70 4 0
Sep-70 0
Oct-70 1 0
Nov-70 1 0
Dec-70 1 23
Jan-71 0
Feb-71 0
Mar-71 0
Apr-71 2 0
May-71 1 0
Jun-71 0
Jul-71 0
Aug-71 0
Sep-71 1 0
Oct-71 0
Nov-71 0
Dec-71 2 6
Jan-72 0
Feb-72 0
Mar-72 1 0
Apr-72 0
May-72 1 0
Jun-72 7 0
Jul-72 0
Aug-72 18 0
Sep-72 4 0
Oct-72 1 0
Nov-72 3 0
Dec-72 1 36
Jan-73 0
Feb-73 2 0
Mar-73 5 0
Apr-73 6 0
May-73 3 0
Jun-73 0
Jul-73 0
Aug-73 0
Sep-73 3 0
Oct-73 3 0
Nov-73 0
Dec-73 22
Jan-74 0
Feb-74 0
Mar-74 3 0
Apr-74 0
May-74 0
Jun-74 0
Jul-74 7 0
Aug-74 0
Sep-74 6 0
Oct-74 4 0
Nov-74 1 0
Dec-74 21
Jan-75 1 0
Feb-75 0
Mar-75 3 0
Apr-75 0
May-75 0
Jun-75 0
Jul-75 1 0
Aug-75 0
Sep-75 0
Oct-75 1 0
Nov-75 1 0
Dec-75 7
Jan-76 3 0
Feb-76 0
Mar-76 6 0
Apr-76 3 0
May-76 6 0
Jun-76 1 0
Jul-76 0
Aug-76 0
Sep-76 0
Oct-76 0
Nov-76 0
Dec-76 19
Jan-77 0
Feb-77 0
Mar-77 0
Apr-77 2 0
May-77 0
Jun-77 0
Jul-77 2 0
Aug-77 0
Sep-77 3 0
Oct-77 3 0
Nov-77 0
Dec-77 2 12
Jan-78 2 0
Feb-78 2 0
Mar-78 2 0
Apr-78 6 0
May-78 17 0
Jun-78 5 0
Jul-78 4 0
Aug-78 4 0
Sep-78 5 0
Oct-78 0
Nov-78 1 0
Dec-78 48
Jan-79 0
Feb-79 1 0
Mar-79 4 0
Apr-79 9 0
May-79 1 0
Jun-79 1 0
Jul-79 0
Aug-79 7 0
Sep-79 1 0
Oct-79 0
Nov-79 0
Dec-79 24
Jan-80 0
Feb-80 1 0
Mar-80 0
Apr-80 0
May-80 0
Jun-80 0
Jul-80 2 0
Aug-80 0
Sep-80 0
Oct-80 0
Nov-80 0
Dec-80 3 6
Jan-81 0
Feb-81 1 0
Mar-81 3 0
Apr-81 7 0
May-81 6 0
Jun-81 1 0
Jul-81 7 0
Aug-81 0
Sep-81 0
Oct-81 8 0
Nov-81 1 0
Dec-81 34
Jan-82 0
Feb-82 2 0
Mar-82 6 0
Apr-82 2 0
May-82 0
Jun-82 2 0
Jul-82 13 0
Aug-82 5 0
Sep-82 23 0
Oct-82 0
Nov-82 5 0
Dec-82 3 61
Jan-83 3 0
Feb-83 9 0
Mar-83 4 0
Apr-83 1 0
May-83 5 0
Jun-83 2 0
Jul-83 2 0
Aug-83 2 0
Sep-83 10 0
Oct-83 1 0
Nov-83 1 0
Dec-83 40
Jan-84 0
Feb-84 3 0
Mar-84 2 0
Apr-84 7 0
May-84 0
Jun-84 1 0
Jul-84 2 0
Aug-84 2 0
Sep-84 10 0
Oct-84 3 0
Nov-84 5 0
Dec-84 35
Jan-85 0
Feb-85 3 0
Mar-85 0
Apr-85 8 0
May-85 0
Jun-85 0
Jul-85 1 0
Aug-85 0
Sep-85 0
Oct-85 1 0
Nov-85 3 0
Dec-85 16
Jan-86 0
Feb-86 13 0
Mar-86 0
Apr-86 0
May-86 3 0
Jun-86 0
Jul-86 2 0
Aug-86 0
Sep-86 2 0
Oct-86 1 0
Nov-86 1 0
Dec-86 22
Jan-87 0
Feb-87 0
Mar-87 0
Apr-87 0
May-87 0
Jun-87 0
Jul-87 2 0
Aug-87 0
Sep-87 0
Oct-87 0
Nov-87 0
Dec-87 2
Jan-88 3 0
Feb-88 4 0
Mar-88 2 0
Apr-88 2 0
May-88 5 0
Jun-88 0
Jul-88 0
Aug-88 0
Sep-88 0
Oct-88 2 0
Nov-88 0
Dec-88 18
Jan-89 1 0
Feb-89 0
Mar-89 17 0
Apr-89 2 0
May-89 2 0
Jun-89 2 0
Jul-89 0
Aug-89 8 0
Sep-89 5 0
Oct-89 11 0
Nov-89 7 0
Dec-89 2 57
Jan-90 0
Feb-90 3 0
Mar-90 5 0
Apr-90 11 0
May-90 2 0
Jun-90 6 0
Jul-90 6 0
Aug-90 3 0
Sep-90 1 0
Oct-90 0
Nov-90 1 0
Dec-90 38
Jan-91 0
Feb-91 0
Mar-91 15 0
Apr-91 2 0
May-91 1 0
Jun-91 33 0
Jul-91 14 0
Aug-91 8 0
Sep-91 1 0
Oct-91 5 0
Nov-91 6 0
Dec-91 85
Jan-92 0
Feb-92 15 0
Mar-92 0
Apr-92 0
May-92 9 0
Jun-92 1 0
Jul-92 0
Aug-92 3 0
Sep-92 11 0
Oct-92 0
Nov-92 0
Dec-92 39
Jan-93 0
Feb-93 1 0
Mar-93 4 0
Apr-93 4 0
May-93 0
Jun-93 1 0
Jul-93 0
Aug-93 2 0
Sep-93 2 0
Oct-93 1 0
Nov-93 1 0
Dec-93 1 17
Jan-94 0
Feb-94 6 0
Mar-94 1 0
Apr-94 9 0
May-94 5 0
Jun-94 0
Jul-94 0
Aug-94 0
Sep-94 0
Oct-94 6 0
Nov-94 0
Dec-94 27
Jan-95 0
Feb-95 0
Mar-95 0
Apr-95 3 0
May-95 0
Jun-95 0
Jul-95 0
Aug-95 0
Sep-95 1 0
Oct-95 4 0
Nov-95 0
Dec-95 8
Jan-96 0
Feb-96 0
Mar-96 0
Apr-96 1 0
May-96 0
Jun-96 0
Jul-96 0
Aug-96 0
Sep-96 0
Oct-96 2 0
Nov-96 0
Dec-96 3
Jan-97 0
Feb-97 1 0
Mar-97 0
Apr-97 1 0
May-97 2 0
Jun-97 0
Jul-97 0
Aug-97 0
Sep-97 0
Oct-97 1 0
Nov-97 3 0
Dec-97 8
Jan-98 0
Feb-98 1 0
Mar-98 1 0
Apr-98 0
May-98 5 0
Jun-98 0
Jul-98 0
Aug-98 9 0
Sep-98 4 0
Oct-98 4 0
Nov-98 1 0
Dec-98 4 29
Jan-99 1 0
Feb-99 3 0
Mar-99 0
Apr-99 1 0
May-99 0
Jun-99 0
Jul-99 1 0
Aug-99 0
Sep-99 1 0
Oct-99 3 0
Nov-99 0
Dec-99 10
Jan-00 0
Feb-00 1 0
Mar-00 0
Apr-00 4 0
May-00 3 0
Jun-00 1 0
Jul-00 8 0
Aug-00 5 0
Sep-00 2 0
Oct-00 7 0
Nov-00 4 0
Dec-00 35
Jan-01 0
Feb-01 0
Mar-01 10 0
Apr-01 9 0
May-01 0
Jun-01 0
Jul-01 0
Aug-01 1 0
Sep-01 1 0
Oct-01 11 0
Nov-01 8 0
Dec-01 40
Jan-02 0
Feb-02 0
Mar-02 0
Apr-02 7 0
May-02 5 0
Jun-02 0
Jul-02 0
Aug-02 0
Sep-02 4 0
Oct-02 6 0
Nov-02 1 0
Dec-02 23
Jan-03 0
Feb-03 0
Mar-03 0
Apr-03 0
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
Page 6: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Chart1

23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12

Sheet1

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
1 Cycle 2 Cycle 10 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 Cycle 23 Cycle 23
Jan-32 1 31-Dec-32 4 111 31-Dec-32 111 277 31-Dec-00 95 1-Jan-00 5 2 112 32 4 10 May-96 8 1 8
Feb-32 31-Dec-33 3 57 31-Dec-33 57 312 31-Dec-01 27 11 3 121 33 4 10 Jun-96 9 2 9
Mar-32 31-Dec-34 0 87 31-Dec-34 87 252 31-Dec-02 5 16 4 135 36 5 11 Jul-96 8 0 3 8
Apr-32 31-Dec-35 0 361 31-Dec-35 361 Oct-60 258 31-Dec-03 244 23 5 145 39 5 12 Aug-96 8 4 8
May-32 2 31-Dec-36 5 797 31-Dec-36 797 Nov-60 293 31-Dec-04 42 36 6 159 39 6 12 Sep-96 8 5 8
Jun-32 31-Dec-37 25 1144 31-Dec-37 1144 Mar-89 285 31-Dec-05 635 58 7 172 38 6 13 Oct-96 9 6 9
Jul-32 1 31-Dec-38 46 1096 31-Dec-38 1096 Mar-60 251 31-Dec-06 538 29 8 186 41 7 14 Nov-96 10 7 10
Aug-32 31-Dec-39 56 888 31-Dec-39 888 May-67 241 31-Dec-07 62 20 9 206 49 7 15 Dec-96 10 8 10
Sep-32 31-Dec-40 56 678 Mar-40 8529 8529 Jul-82 229 31-Dec-08 485 10 10 229 55 7 15 Jan-97 11 9 11
Oct-32 31-Dec-41 44 475 31-Dec-40 678 Feb-86 228 31-Dec-09 439 8 11 26 58 8 16 Feb-97 11 10 11
Nov-32 31-Dec-42 19 306 Sep-41 5440 5440 Mar-40 226 31-Dec-10 186 3 12 293 62 9 16 Mar-97 14 11 14
Dec-32 4 31-Dec-43 21 163 31-Dec-41 475 223 31-Dec-11 57 0 13 329 76 11 17 Apr-97 17 12 17
Jan-33 31-Dec-44 7 96 31-Dec-42 306 222 31-Dec-12 36 0 14 364 92 12 20 May-97 18 13 18
Feb-33 31-Dec-45 13 332 31-Dec-43 163 221 31-Dec-13 14 2 15 389 104 13 22 Jun-97 20 14 20
Mar-33 31-Dec-46 77 926 31-Dec-44 96 216 31-Dec-14 96 11 16 415 116 13 25 Jul-97 23 2 15 23
Apr-33 31-Dec-47 54 1516 31-Dec-45 332 215 31-Dec-15 474 27 17 431 137 15 28 Aug-97 25 16 25
May-33 1 31-Dec-48 28 1363 31-Dec-46 926 214 31-Dec-16 571 47 18 437 167 18 31 Sep-97 28 17 28
Jun-33 31-Dec-49 49 1347 31-Dec-47 1516 212 31-Dec-17 1039 63 19 461 192 20 35 Oct-97 32 18 32
Jul-33 31-Dec-50 34 839 31-Dec-48 1363 212 31-Dec-18 806 60 20 499 215 22 37 Nov-97 35 19 35
Aug-33 1 31-Dec-51 44 694 31-Dec-49 1347 203 31-Dec-19 636 39 21 53 238 26 41 Dec-97 39 20 39
Sep-33 1 31-Dec-52 39 315 31-Dec-50 839 201 31-Dec-20 376 28 22 58 26 30 45 Jan-98 44 21 44
Oct-33 31-Dec-53 15 139 31-Dec-51 694 199 31-Dec-21 261 26 23 61 293 34 50 Feb-98 49 22 49
Nov-33 31-Dec-54 4 44 31-Dec-52 315 199 31-Dec-22 142 22 24 64 326 38 57 Mar-98 54 23 54
Dec-33 3 31-Dec-55 9 38 31-Dec-53 139 196 31-Dec-23 58 11 25 67 341 42 63 Apr-98 57 24 57
Jan-34 31-Dec-56 61 1417 31-Dec-54 44 196 31-Dec-24 167 21 26 71 36 47 68 May-98 59 25 59
Feb-34 31-Dec-57 72 1902 31-Dec-55 38 195 31-Dec-25 443 40 27 72 386 51 70 Jun-98 63 26 63
Mar-34 31-Dec-58 57 1848 31-Dec-56 1417 193 31-Dec-26 639 78 28 72 42 55 73 Jul-98 66 8 27 66
Apr-34 31-Dec-59 68 159 31-Dec-57 1902 192 31-Dec-27 69 122 29 75 45 57 75 Aug-98 68 28 68
May-34 31-Dec-60 98 1123 31-Dec-58 1848 186 31-Dec-28 778 103 30 77 49 59 79 Sep-98 70 29 70
Jun-34 31-Dec-61 34 539 Jul-59 17201 17201 186 31-Dec-29 649 73 31 77 52 62 82 Oct-98 71 30 71
Jul-34 31-Dec-62 3 376 31-Dec-59 159 185 31-Dec-30 357 47 32 78 54 66 85 Nov-98 73 31 73
Aug-34 31-Dec-63 19 279 Oct-60 12433 12433 183 31-Dec-31 212 35 33 81 57 69 88 Dec-98 78 32 78
Sep-34 31-Dec-64 5 102 Nov-60 12049 12049 181 31-Dec-32 111 11 34 86 61 72 91 Jan-99 83 33 83
Oct-34 31-Dec-65 4 151 31-Dec-60 1123 181 31-Dec-33 57 5 35 92 64 77 94 Feb-99 85 34 85
Nov-34 31-Dec-66 19 47 31-Dec-61 539 179 31-Dec-34 87 16 36 84 68 83 95 Mar-99 84 35 84
Dec-34 0 31-Dec-67 27 937 31-Dec-62 376 174 31-Dec-35 361 34 37 104 72 88 95 Apr-99 86 36 86
Jan-35 31-Dec-68 18 1059 31-Dec-63 279 173 31-Dec-36 797 70 38 106 76 90 95 May-99 91 37 91
Feb-35 31-Dec-69 10 1055 31-Dec-64 102 173 31-Dec-37 1144 81 39 107 79 92 97 Jun-99 93 38 93
Mar-35 31-Dec-70 23 1045 31-Dec-65 151 171 31-Dec-38 1096 111 40 112 83 96 101 Jul-99 94 5 39 94
Apr-35 31-Dec-71 6 666 31-Dec-66 47 168 31-Dec-39 888 101 41 116 86 101 102 Aug-99 98 40 98
May-35 31-Dec-72 36 689 31-Dec-67 937 31-Dec-40 678 73 42 115 88 108 112 Sep-99 102 41 102
Jun-35 31-Dec-73 22 38 31-Dec-68 1059 31-Dec-41 475 40 43 113 91 114 105 Oct-99 108 42 108
Jul-35 31-Dec-74 21 345 31-Dec-69 1055 31-Dec-42 306 20 44 112 93 117 107 Nov-99 111 43 111
Aug-35 31-Dec-75 7 155 31-Dec-70 1045 31-Dec-43 163 16 45 111 94 119 108 Dec-99 111 44 111
Sep-35 31-Dec-76 19 126 31-Dec-71 666 31-Dec-44 96 5 46 111 94 119 107 Jan-00 113 45 113
Oct-35 31-Dec-77 12 275 31-Dec-72 689 31-Dec-45 332 11 47 109 94 116 105 Feb-00 117 46 117
Nov-35 31-Dec-78 48 925 31-Dec-73 38 31-Dec-46 926 22 48 105 94 113 105 Mar-00 120 47 120
Dec-35 0 31-Dec-79 24 1554 31-Dec-74 345 31-Dec-47 1516 40 49 101 94 111 107 Apr-00 121 48 121
Jan-36 31-Dec-80 6 1546 31-Dec-75 155 31-Dec-48 1363 60 50 101 96 111 111 May-00 119 49 119
Feb-36 31-Dec-81 34 1405 31-Dec-76 126 31-Dec-49 1347 80 51 98 97 111 111 Jun-00 119 50 119
Mar-36 31-Dec-82 61 1159 31-Dec-77 275 31-Dec-50 839 83 52 91 98 111 110 Jul-00 120 13 51 120
Apr-36 1 31-Dec-83 40 666 31-Dec-78 925 31-Dec-51 694 477 53 86 97 110 110 Aug-00 119 52 119
May-36 31-Dec-84 35 459 31-Dec-79 1554 31-Dec-52 315 478 54 85 96 110 110 Sep-00 116 53 116
Jun-36 2 31-Dec-85 16 179 31-Dec-80 1546 31-Dec-53 139 307 55 89 95 110 108 Oct-00 115 54 115
Jul-36 31-Dec-86 22 134 31-Dec-81 1405 31-Dec-54 44 122 56 94 95 108 106 Nov-00 113 55 113
Aug-36 31-Dec-87 2 292 31-Dec-82 1159 31-Dec-55 38 96 57 94 95 106 106 Dec-00 112 56 112
Sep-36 31-Dec-88 18 1002 31-Dec-83 666 31-Dec-56 1417 102 58 89 94 107 106 Jan-01 109 57 109
Oct-36 31-Dec-89 57 1576 31-Dec-84 459 31-Dec-57 1902 324 59 86 93 109 106 Feb-01 104 58 107
Nov-36 2 31-Dec-90 38 1426 31-Dec-85 179 31-Dec-58 1848 476 60 85 95 109 107 Mar-01 105 59 105
Dec-36 5 31-Dec-91 85 1457 31-Dec-86 134 31-Dec-59 159 54 61 84 94 106 104 Apr-01 108 60 108
Jan-37 31-Dec-92 39 943 31-Dec-87 292 31-Dec-60 1123 629 62 82 91 104 105 May-01 109 61 109
Feb-37 1 31-Dec-93 17 546 31-Dec-88 1002 31-Dec-61 539 859 63 84 88 103 105 Jun-01 110 62 110
Mar-37 1 31-Dec-94 27 299 31-Dec-89 1576 31-Dec-62 376 612 64 89 96 103 105 Jul-01 112 22 63 112
Apr-37 13 31-Dec-95 8 175 31-Dec-90 1426 31-Dec-63 279 45 65 90 85 103 106 Aug-01 114 64 114
May-37 2 31-Dec-96 3 86 31-Dec-91 1457 31-Dec-64 102 364 66 905 83 100 106 Sep-01 114 65 114
Jun-37 31-Dec-97 8 215 31-Dec-92 943 31-Dec-65 151 209 67 869 80 97 106 Oct-01 114 66 114
Jul-37 31-Dec-98 29 643 31-Dec-93 546 31-Dec-66 47 114 68 795 78 97 106 Nov-01 116 67 116
Aug-37 2 31-Dec-99 10 933 31-Dec-94 299 31-Dec-67 937 378 69 773 77 98 107 Dec-01 115 68 115
Sep-37 1 31-Dec-00 35 1196 31-Dec-95 175 31-Dec-68 1059 698 70 776 77 95 105 Jan-02 114 69 114
Oct-37 5 31-Dec-01 40 111 31-Dec-96 86 31-Dec-69 1055 1061 71 754 74 91 104 Feb-02 115 70 115
Nov-37 31-Dec-02 23 104 31-Dec-97 215 31-Dec-70 1045 108 72 728 70 88 101 Mar-02 113 71 113
Dec-37 25 31-Dec-98 643 31-Dec-71 666 816 73 707 78 86 97 Apr-02 111 72 111
Jan-38 14 31-Dec-99 933 31-Dec-72 689 665 74 678 68 86 94 May-02 109 73 109
Feb-38 1 31-Dec-00 1196 31-Dec-73 38 348 75 646 68 84 89 Jun-02 106 74 106
Mar-38 31-Dec-01 111 31-Dec-74 345 306 76 601 66 80 84 Jul-02 103 19 75 103
Apr-38 6 31-Dec-02 104 31-Dec-75 155 7 77 583 65 76 80 Aug-02 99 76 99
May-38 7 31-Dec-76 126 198 78 567 64 74 78 Sep-02 95 77 95
Jun-38 31-Dec-77 275 926 79 543 63 73 74 Oct-02 91 78 91
Jul-38 2 31-Dec-78 925 1544 80 533 61 71 71 Nov-02 85 79 85
Aug-38 2 31-Dec-79 1554 1259 81 50 58 68 68 Dec-02 82 80 82
Sep-38 8 31-Dec-80 1546 848 82 461 58 66 67 Jan-03 81 81 81
Oct-38 6 31-Dec-81 1405 681 83 435 58 67 65 Feb-03 78 82 78
Nov-38 31-Dec-82 1159 385 84 404 59 68 65 Mar-03 74 83 74
Dec-38 46 31-Dec-83 666 228 85 374 58 67 66 Apr-03 70 84 70
Jan-39 31-Dec-84 459 102 86 356 55 65 66 May-03 68 85 68
Feb-39 4 31-Dec-85 179 241 87 345 52 62 67 Jun-03 65 86 65
Mar-39 1 31-Dec-86 134 829 88 356 50 60 69 Jul-03 62 9 87 62
Apr-39 14 31-Dec-87 292 132 89 373 47 60 71 Aug-03 60 88 60
May-39 2 31-Dec-88 1002 130 90 38 45 57 71 Sep-03 60 89 60
Jun-39 3 31-Dec-89 1576 1181 91 389 45 55 72 Oct-03 58 90 58
Jul-39 6 31-Dec-90 1426 899 92 393 44 53 73 Nov-03 57 91 57
Aug-39 15 31-Dec-91 1457 666 93 389 44 52 73 Dec-03 55 92 55
Sep-39 1 31-Dec-92 943 60 94 382 44 51 71 Jan-04 52 93 52
Oct-39 10 31-Dec-93 546 469 95 37 44 49 68 Feb-04 49 94 49
Nov-39 31-Dec-94 299 41 96 356 45 47 65 Mar-04 47 95 47
Dec-39 56 31-Dec-95 175 213 97 342 43 47 62 Apr-04 46 96 46
Jan-40 2 31-Dec-96 86 16 98 319 43 48 61 May-04 44 97 44
Feb-40 31-Dec-97 215 64 99 289 45 49 59 Jun-04 42 98 42
Mar-40 27 31-Dec-98 643 41 100 244 46 50 55 Jul-04 40 6 99 40
Apr-40 10 31-Dec-99 933 68 101 198 47 48 51 Aug-04 39 100 39
May-40 2 31-Dec-00 1196 145 102 166 47 44 46 Sep-04 38 101 38
Jun-40 5 31-Dec-01 111 34 103 133 47 40 44 Oct-04 36 102 36
Jul-40 2 31-Dec-02 104 45 104 106 48 37 43 Nov-04 35 103 35
Aug-40 31-Dec-03 55 431 105 93 47 33 41 Dec-04 35 104 35
Sep-40 3 31-Dec-04 40 475 106 86 46 32 39 Jan-05 35 105 35
Oct-40 3 31-Dec-05 32 422 107 85 44 30 37 Feb-05 34 106 34
Nov-40 2 31-Dec-06 20 281 108 79 43 30 36 Mar-05 34 107 34
Dec-40 56 31-Dec-07 12 101 109 75 43 28 34 Apr-05 32 108 32
Jan-41 0 81 110 72 41 27 31 May-05 29 109 29
Feb-41 0 25 111 39 23 32 Jun-05 29 110 29
Mar-41 13 0 0 112 37 21 31 Jul-05 29 7 111 29
Apr-41 1 0 14 113 36 21 33 Aug-05 28 112 28
May-41 0 5 114 35 20 34 Sep-05 26 113 26
Jun-41 0 122 115 33 20 34 Oct-05 26 114 26
Jul-41 8 0 139 116 31 20 34 Nov-05 25 115 25
Aug-41 4 0 354 117 30 19 35 Dec-05 23 116 23
Sep-41 12 0 458 118 29 18 35 Jan-06 21 117 21
Oct-41 0 41 119 28 17 34 Feb-06 19 118 19
Nov-41 3 0 301 120 27 16 33 Mar-06 17 119 17
Dec-41 3 44 239 121 26 14 32 Apr-06 17 120 17
Jan-42 0 156 122 24 13 31 May-06 17 121 17
Feb-42 0 66 123 23 11 28 Jun-06 16 122 16
Mar-42 8 0 4 124 21 9 25 Jul-06 15 2 123 15
Apr-42 2 0 18 125 19 9 23 Aug-06 16 124 16
May-42 0 85 126 19 8 22 Sep-06 16 125 16
Jun-42 0 166 127 18 77 21 Oct-06 14 126 14
Jul-42 0 363 128 17 19 Nov-06 13 127 13
Aug-42 1 0 496 129 15 18 Dec-06 12 128 12
Sep-42 1 0 642 130 12 16 Jan-07 12 129 12
Oct-42 5 0 67 131 10 15 Feb-07 12 130 12
Nov-42 2 0 709 132 9 14 Mar-07 11 131 11
Dec-42 19 478 133 8 14 Apr-07 10 132 10
Jan-43 1 0 275 134 7 15 May-07 9 133 9
Feb-43 1 0 85 135 6 16 Jun-07 8 134 8
Mar-43 1 0 132 136 5 16 Jul-07 7 0 135 7
Apr-43 0 569 137 5 15 Aug-07 6 136 6
May-43 0 1215 138 13 Sep-07 5 137 5
Jun-43 0 1383 139 12 Oct-07 5 138 5
Jul-43 0 1032 140 13 Nov-07 5 139 5
Aug-43 14 0 857 141 13 Dec-07 4 140 4
Sep-43 2 0 646 142 12 Jan-08 5 141 5
Oct-43 1 0 367 Feb-08 4 142 4
Nov-43 1 0 242
Dec-43 21 107
Jan-44 0 15
Feb-44 1 0 401
Mar-44 2 0 6105
Apr-44 2 0 985
May-44 0 1247
Jun-44 0 963
Jul-44 0 666
Aug-44 0 645
Sep-44 0 541
Oct-44 0 39
Nov-44 0 206
Dec-44 2 7 67
Jan-45 1 0 43
Feb-45 0 227
Mar-45 4 0 546
Apr-45 5 0 938
May-45 0 958
Jun-45 0 772
Jul-45 0 591
Aug-45 0 44
Sep-45 0 47
Oct-45 0 305
Nov-45 0 163
Dec-45 3 13 73
Jan-46 2 0 376
Feb-46 9 0 74
Mar-46 18 0 139
Apr-46 8 0 1112
May-46 3 0 1016
Jun-46 2 0 662
Jul-46 7 0 447
Aug-46 1 0 17
Sep-46 26 0 113
Oct-46 1 0 124
Nov-46 0 34
Dec-46 77 6
Jan-47 0 323
Feb-47 0 543
Mar-47 22 0 597
Apr-47 3 0 637
May-47 2 0 635
Jun-47 1 0 522
Jul-47 5 0 254
Aug-47 4 0 131
Sep-47 10 0 68
Oct-47 3 0 63
Nov-47 4 0 71
Dec-47 54 356
Jan-48 0 73
Feb-48 0 851
Mar-48 5 0 78
Apr-48 2 0 64
May-48 1 0 418
Jun-48 0 262
Jul-48 0 267
Aug-48 10 0 121
Sep-48 0 95
Oct-48 10 0 27
Nov-48 0 5
Dec-48 28 244
Jan-49 10 0 42
Feb-49 0 635
Mar-49 7 0 538
Apr-49 4 0 62
May-49 10 0 485
Jun-49 1 0 439
Jul-49 0 186
Aug-49 5 0 57
Sep-49 0 36
Oct-49 12 0 14
Nov-49 0 96
Dec-49 49 474
Jan-50 1 0 571
Feb-50 5 0 1039
Mar-50 4 0 806
Apr-50 1 0 636
May-50 3 0 376
Jun-50 1 0 261
Jul-50 1 0 142
Aug-50 11 0 58
Sep-50 1 0 167
Oct-50 5 0 443
Nov-50 1 0 639
Dec-50 34 69
Jan-51 1 0 778
Feb-51 3 0 649
Mar-51 1 0 357
Apr-51 2 0 212
May-51 6 0 111
Jun-51 3 0 57
Jul-51 4 0 87
Aug-51 0 361
Sep-51 16 0 797
Oct-51 6 0 1144
Nov-51 0 1096
Dec-51 2 44 888
Jan-52 0 678
Feb-52 3 0 475
Mar-52 10 0 306
Apr-52 10 0 163
May-52 6 0 96
Jun-52 3 0 332
Jul-52 0 926
Aug-52 0 1516
Sep-52 2 0 1363
Oct-52 3 0 1347
Nov-52 0 839
Dec-52 2 39 694
Jan-53 1 0 315
Feb-53 0 139
Mar-53 3 0 44
Apr-53 0 38
May-53 5 0 1417
Jun-53 0 1902
Jul-53 0 1848
Aug-53 1 0 159
Sep-53 4 0 1123
Oct-53 1 0 539
Nov-53 0 376
Dec-53 15 279
Jan-54 0 102
Feb-54 0 151
Mar-54 3 0 47
Apr-54 0 937
May-54 0 1059
Jun-54 0 1055
Jul-54 0 1045
Aug-54 0 666
Sep-54 1 0 689
Oct-54 0 38
Nov-54 0 345
Dec-54 4 155
Jan-55 3 0 126
Feb-55 0 275
Mar-55 0 925
Apr-55 3 0 1554
May-55 1 0 1546
Jun-55 0 1405
Jul-55 0 1159
Aug-55 0 666
Sep-55 1 0 459
Oct-55 0 179
Nov-55 1 0 134
Dec-55 9 292
Jan-56 0 1002
Feb-56 5 0 1576
Mar-56 4 0 1426
Apr-56 18 0 1457
May-56 15 0 943
Jun-56 1 0 546
Jul-56 0 299
Aug-56 3 0 175
Sep-56 5 0 86
Oct-56 1 0 215
Nov-56 9 0 643
Dec-56 61 933
Jan-57 4 0 1196
Feb-57 2 0 111
Mar-57 12 0 104
Apr-57 4 0
May-57 0
Jun-57 8 0
Jul-57 1 0
Aug-57 0
Sep-57 37 0
Oct-57 1 0
Nov-57 3 0
Dec-57 72
Jan-58 1 0
Feb-58 5 0
Mar-58 4 0
Apr-58 0
May-58 3 0
Jun-58 10 0
Jul-58 9 0
Aug-58 9 0
Sep-58 10 0
Oct-58 3 0
Nov-58 0
Dec-58 3 57
Jan-59 0
Feb-59 1 0
Mar-59 13 0
Apr-59 5 0
May-59 6 0
Jun-59 0
Jul-59 15 0
Aug-59 10 0
Sep-59 10 0
Oct-59 3 0
Nov-59 3 0
Dec-59 2 68
Jan-60 0
Feb-60 0
Mar-60 6 0
Apr-60 26 0
May-60 10 0
Jun-60 4 0
Jul-60 5 0
Aug-60 7 0
Sep-60 9 0
Oct-60 17 0
Nov-60 13 0
Dec-60 1 98
Jan-61 0
Feb-61 3 0
Mar-61 2 0
Apr-61 4 0
May-61 0
Jun-61 2 0
Jul-61 12 0
Aug-61 0
Sep-61 1 0
Oct-61 8 0
Nov-61 0
Dec-61 2 34
Jan-62 0
Feb-62 0
Mar-62 0
Apr-62 0
May-62 0
Jun-62 0
Jul-62 0
Aug-62 0
Sep-62 0
Oct-62 2 0
Nov-62 0
Dec-62 1 3
Jan-63 0
Feb-63 0
Mar-63 0
Apr-63 0
May-63 0
Jun-63 1 0
Jul-63 0
Aug-63 2 0
Sep-63 11 0
Oct-63 5 0
Nov-63 0
Dec-63 19
Jan-64 1 0
Feb-64 0
Mar-64 0
Apr-64 1 0
May-64 0
Jun-64 1 0
Jul-64 0
Aug-64 0
Sep-64 2 0
Oct-64 0
Nov-64 0
Dec-64 5
Jan-65 0
Feb-65 0
Mar-65 0
Apr-65 2 0
May-65 0
Jun-65 2 0
Jul-65 0
Aug-65 0
Sep-65 0
Oct-65 0
Nov-65 0
Dec-65 4
Jan-66 0
Feb-66 0
Mar-66 6 0
Apr-66 0
May-66 4 0
Jun-66 0
Jul-66 0
Aug-66 3 0
Sep-66 5 0
Oct-66 0
Nov-66 0
Dec-66 1 19
Jan-67 3 0
Feb-67 2 0
Mar-67 0
Apr-67 0
May-67 16 0
Jun-67 3 0
Jul-67 0
Aug-67 0
Sep-67 3 0
Oct-67 0
Nov-67 0
Dec-67 27
Jan-68 0
Feb-68 0
Mar-68 0
Apr-68 1 0
May-68 2 0
Jun-68 4 0
Jul-68 0
Aug-68 0
Sep-68 0
Oct-68 4 0
Nov-68 7 0
Dec-68 18
Jan-69 0
Feb-69 2 0
Mar-69 5 0
Apr-69 0
May-69 2 0
Jun-69 0
Jul-69 0
Aug-69 0
Sep-69 1 0
Oct-69 0
Nov-69 0
Dec-69 10
Jan-70 0
Feb-70 0
Mar-70 4 0
Apr-70 4 0
May-70 1 0
Jun-70 0
Jul-70 7 0
Aug-70 4 0
Sep-70 0
Oct-70 1 0
Nov-70 1 0
Dec-70 1 23
Jan-71 0
Feb-71 0
Mar-71 0
Apr-71 2 0
May-71 1 0
Jun-71 0
Jul-71 0
Aug-71 0
Sep-71 1 0
Oct-71 0
Nov-71 0
Dec-71 2 6
Jan-72 0
Feb-72 0
Mar-72 1 0
Apr-72 0
May-72 1 0
Jun-72 7 0
Jul-72 0
Aug-72 18 0
Sep-72 4 0
Oct-72 1 0
Nov-72 3 0
Dec-72 1 36
Jan-73 0
Feb-73 2 0
Mar-73 5 0
Apr-73 6 0
May-73 3 0
Jun-73 0
Jul-73 0
Aug-73 0
Sep-73 3 0
Oct-73 3 0
Nov-73 0
Dec-73 22
Jan-74 0
Feb-74 0
Mar-74 3 0
Apr-74 0
May-74 0
Jun-74 0
Jul-74 7 0
Aug-74 0
Sep-74 6 0
Oct-74 4 0
Nov-74 1 0
Dec-74 21
Jan-75 1 0
Feb-75 0
Mar-75 3 0
Apr-75 0
May-75 0
Jun-75 0
Jul-75 1 0
Aug-75 0
Sep-75 0
Oct-75 1 0
Nov-75 1 0
Dec-75 7
Jan-76 3 0
Feb-76 0
Mar-76 6 0
Apr-76 3 0
May-76 6 0
Jun-76 1 0
Jul-76 0
Aug-76 0
Sep-76 0
Oct-76 0
Nov-76 0
Dec-76 19
Jan-77 0
Feb-77 0
Mar-77 0
Apr-77 2 0
May-77 0
Jun-77 0
Jul-77 2 0
Aug-77 0
Sep-77 3 0
Oct-77 3 0
Nov-77 0
Dec-77 2 12
Jan-78 2 0
Feb-78 2 0
Mar-78 2 0
Apr-78 6 0
May-78 17 0
Jun-78 5 0
Jul-78 4 0
Aug-78 4 0
Sep-78 5 0
Oct-78 0
Nov-78 1 0
Dec-78 48
Jan-79 0
Feb-79 1 0
Mar-79 4 0
Apr-79 9 0
May-79 1 0
Jun-79 1 0
Jul-79 0
Aug-79 7 0
Sep-79 1 0
Oct-79 0
Nov-79 0
Dec-79 24
Jan-80 0
Feb-80 1 0
Mar-80 0
Apr-80 0
May-80 0
Jun-80 0
Jul-80 2 0
Aug-80 0
Sep-80 0
Oct-80 0
Nov-80 0
Dec-80 3 6
Jan-81 0
Feb-81 1 0
Mar-81 3 0
Apr-81 7 0
May-81 6 0
Jun-81 1 0
Jul-81 7 0
Aug-81 0
Sep-81 0
Oct-81 8 0
Nov-81 1 0
Dec-81 34
Jan-82 0
Feb-82 2 0
Mar-82 6 0
Apr-82 2 0
May-82 0
Jun-82 2 0
Jul-82 13 0
Aug-82 5 0
Sep-82 23 0
Oct-82 0
Nov-82 5 0
Dec-82 3 61
Jan-83 3 0
Feb-83 9 0
Mar-83 4 0
Apr-83 1 0
May-83 5 0
Jun-83 2 0
Jul-83 2 0
Aug-83 2 0
Sep-83 10 0
Oct-83 1 0
Nov-83 1 0
Dec-83 40
Jan-84 0
Feb-84 3 0
Mar-84 2 0
Apr-84 7 0
May-84 0
Jun-84 1 0
Jul-84 2 0
Aug-84 2 0
Sep-84 10 0
Oct-84 3 0
Nov-84 5 0
Dec-84 35
Jan-85 0
Feb-85 3 0
Mar-85 0
Apr-85 8 0
May-85 0
Jun-85 0
Jul-85 1 0
Aug-85 0
Sep-85 0
Oct-85 1 0
Nov-85 3 0
Dec-85 16
Jan-86 0
Feb-86 13 0
Mar-86 0
Apr-86 0
May-86 3 0
Jun-86 0
Jul-86 2 0
Aug-86 0
Sep-86 2 0
Oct-86 1 0
Nov-86 1 0
Dec-86 22
Jan-87 0
Feb-87 0
Mar-87 0
Apr-87 0
May-87 0
Jun-87 0
Jul-87 2 0
Aug-87 0
Sep-87 0
Oct-87 0
Nov-87 0
Dec-87 2
Jan-88 3 0
Feb-88 4 0
Mar-88 2 0
Apr-88 2 0
May-88 5 0
Jun-88 0
Jul-88 0
Aug-88 0
Sep-88 0
Oct-88 2 0
Nov-88 0
Dec-88 18
Jan-89 1 0
Feb-89 0
Mar-89 17 0
Apr-89 2 0
May-89 2 0
Jun-89 2 0
Jul-89 0
Aug-89 8 0
Sep-89 5 0
Oct-89 11 0
Nov-89 7 0
Dec-89 2 57
Jan-90 0
Feb-90 3 0
Mar-90 5 0
Apr-90 11 0
May-90 2 0
Jun-90 6 0
Jul-90 6 0
Aug-90 3 0
Sep-90 1 0
Oct-90 0
Nov-90 1 0
Dec-90 38
Jan-91 0
Feb-91 0
Mar-91 15 0
Apr-91 2 0
May-91 1 0
Jun-91 33 0
Jul-91 14 0
Aug-91 8 0
Sep-91 1 0
Oct-91 5 0
Nov-91 6 0
Dec-91 85
Jan-92 0
Feb-92 15 0
Mar-92 0
Apr-92 0
May-92 9 0
Jun-92 1 0
Jul-92 0
Aug-92 3 0
Sep-92 11 0
Oct-92 0
Nov-92 0
Dec-92 39
Jan-93 0
Feb-93 1 0
Mar-93 4 0
Apr-93 4 0
May-93 0
Jun-93 1 0
Jul-93 0
Aug-93 2 0
Sep-93 2 0
Oct-93 1 0
Nov-93 1 0
Dec-93 1 17
Jan-94 0
Feb-94 6 0
Mar-94 1 0
Apr-94 9 0
May-94 5 0
Jun-94 0
Jul-94 0
Aug-94 0
Sep-94 0
Oct-94 6 0
Nov-94 0
Dec-94 27
Jan-95 0
Feb-95 0
Mar-95 0
Apr-95 3 0
May-95 0
Jun-95 0
Jul-95 0
Aug-95 0
Sep-95 1 0
Oct-95 4 0
Nov-95 0
Dec-95 8
Jan-96 0
Feb-96 0
Mar-96 0
Apr-96 1 0
May-96 0
Jun-96 0
Jul-96 0
Aug-96 0
Sep-96 0
Oct-96 2 0
Nov-96 0
Dec-96 3
Jan-97 0
Feb-97 1 0
Mar-97 0
Apr-97 1 0
May-97 2 0
Jun-97 0
Jul-97 0
Aug-97 0
Sep-97 0
Oct-97 1 0
Nov-97 3 0
Dec-97 8
Jan-98 0
Feb-98 1 0
Mar-98 1 0
Apr-98 0
May-98 5 0
Jun-98 0
Jul-98 0
Aug-98 9 0
Sep-98 4 0
Oct-98 4 0
Nov-98 1 0
Dec-98 4 29
Jan-99 1 0
Feb-99 3 0
Mar-99 0
Apr-99 1 0
May-99 0
Jun-99 0
Jul-99 1 0
Aug-99 0
Sep-99 1 0
Oct-99 3 0
Nov-99 0
Dec-99 10
Jan-00 0
Feb-00 1 0
Mar-00 0
Apr-00 4 0
May-00 3 0
Jun-00 1 0
Jul-00 8 0
Aug-00 5 0
Sep-00 2 0
Oct-00 7 0
Nov-00 4 0
Dec-00 35
Jan-01 0
Feb-01 0
Mar-01 10 0
Apr-01 9 0
May-01 0
Jun-01 0
Jul-01 0
Aug-01 1 0
Sep-01 1 0
Oct-01 11 0
Nov-01 8 0
Dec-01 40
Jan-02 0
Feb-02 0
Mar-02 0
Apr-02 7 0
May-02 5 0
Jun-02 0
Jul-02 0
Aug-02 0
Sep-02 4 0
Oct-02 6 0
Nov-02 1 0
Dec-02 23
Jan-03 0
Feb-03 0
Mar-03 0
Apr-03 0
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
Page 7: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Sheet1

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
1 Cycle 2 Cycle 10 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 Cycle 23 Cycle 23
Jan-32 1 31-Dec-32 4 111 31-Dec-32 111 277 31-Dec-00 95 1-Jan-00 5 2 112 32 4 10 May-96 8 1 8
Feb-32 31-Dec-33 3 57 31-Dec-33 57 312 31-Dec-01 27 11 3 121 33 4 10 Jun-96 9 2 9
Mar-32 31-Dec-34 0 87 31-Dec-34 87 252 31-Dec-02 5 16 4 135 36 5 11 Jul-96 8 0 3 8
Apr-32 31-Dec-35 0 361 31-Dec-35 361 Oct-60 258 31-Dec-03 244 23 5 145 39 5 12 Aug-96 8 4 8
May-32 2 31-Dec-36 5 797 31-Dec-36 797 Nov-60 293 31-Dec-04 42 36 6 159 39 6 12 Sep-96 8 5 8
Jun-32 31-Dec-37 25 1144 31-Dec-37 1144 Mar-89 285 31-Dec-05 635 58 7 172 38 6 13 Oct-96 9 6 9
Jul-32 1 31-Dec-38 46 1096 31-Dec-38 1096 Mar-60 251 31-Dec-06 538 29 8 186 41 7 14 Nov-96 10 7 10
Aug-32 31-Dec-39 56 888 31-Dec-39 888 May-67 241 31-Dec-07 62 20 9 206 49 7 15 Dec-96 10 8 10
Sep-32 31-Dec-40 56 678 Mar-40 8529 8529 Jul-82 229 31-Dec-08 485 10 10 229 55 7 15 Jan-97 11 9 11
Oct-32 31-Dec-41 44 475 31-Dec-40 678 Feb-86 228 31-Dec-09 439 8 11 26 58 8 16 Feb-97 11 10 11
Nov-32 31-Dec-42 19 306 Sep-41 5440 5440 Mar-40 226 31-Dec-10 186 3 12 293 62 9 16 Mar-97 14 11 14
Dec-32 4 31-Dec-43 21 163 31-Dec-41 475 223 31-Dec-11 57 0 13 329 76 11 17 Apr-97 17 12 17
Jan-33 31-Dec-44 7 96 31-Dec-42 306 222 31-Dec-12 36 0 14 364 92 12 20 May-97 18 13 18
Feb-33 31-Dec-45 13 332 31-Dec-43 163 221 31-Dec-13 14 2 15 389 104 13 22 Jun-97 20 14 20
Mar-33 31-Dec-46 77 926 31-Dec-44 96 216 31-Dec-14 96 11 16 415 116 13 25 Jul-97 23 2 15 23
Apr-33 31-Dec-47 54 1516 31-Dec-45 332 215 31-Dec-15 474 27 17 431 137 15 28 Aug-97 25 16 25
May-33 1 31-Dec-48 28 1363 31-Dec-46 926 214 31-Dec-16 571 47 18 437 167 18 31 Sep-97 28 17 28
Jun-33 31-Dec-49 49 1347 31-Dec-47 1516 212 31-Dec-17 1039 63 19 461 192 20 35 Oct-97 32 18 32
Jul-33 31-Dec-50 34 839 31-Dec-48 1363 212 31-Dec-18 806 60 20 499 215 22 37 Nov-97 35 19 35
Aug-33 1 31-Dec-51 44 694 31-Dec-49 1347 203 31-Dec-19 636 39 21 53 238 26 41 Dec-97 39 20 39
Sep-33 1 31-Dec-52 39 315 31-Dec-50 839 201 31-Dec-20 376 28 22 58 26 30 45 Jan-98 44 21 44
Oct-33 31-Dec-53 15 139 31-Dec-51 694 199 31-Dec-21 261 26 23 61 293 34 50 Feb-98 49 22 49
Nov-33 31-Dec-54 4 44 31-Dec-52 315 199 31-Dec-22 142 22 24 64 326 38 57 Mar-98 54 23 54
Dec-33 3 31-Dec-55 9 38 31-Dec-53 139 196 31-Dec-23 58 11 25 67 341 42 63 Apr-98 57 24 57
Jan-34 31-Dec-56 61 1417 31-Dec-54 44 196 31-Dec-24 167 21 26 71 36 47 68 May-98 59 25 59
Feb-34 31-Dec-57 72 1902 31-Dec-55 38 195 31-Dec-25 443 40 27 72 386 51 70 Jun-98 63 26 63
Mar-34 31-Dec-58 57 1848 31-Dec-56 1417 193 31-Dec-26 639 78 28 72 42 55 73 Jul-98 66 8 27 66
Apr-34 31-Dec-59 68 159 31-Dec-57 1902 192 31-Dec-27 69 122 29 75 45 57 75 Aug-98 68 28 68
May-34 31-Dec-60 98 1123 31-Dec-58 1848 186 31-Dec-28 778 103 30 77 49 59 79 Sep-98 70 29 70
Jun-34 31-Dec-61 34 539 Jul-59 17201 17201 186 31-Dec-29 649 73 31 77 52 62 82 Oct-98 71 30 71
Jul-34 31-Dec-62 3 376 31-Dec-59 159 185 31-Dec-30 357 47 32 78 54 66 85 Nov-98 73 31 73
Aug-34 31-Dec-63 19 279 Oct-60 12433 12433 183 31-Dec-31 212 35 33 81 57 69 88 Dec-98 78 32 78
Sep-34 31-Dec-64 5 102 Nov-60 12049 12049 181 31-Dec-32 111 11 34 86 61 72 91 Jan-99 83 33 83
Oct-34 31-Dec-65 4 151 31-Dec-60 1123 181 31-Dec-33 57 5 35 92 64 77 94 Feb-99 85 34 85
Nov-34 31-Dec-66 19 47 31-Dec-61 539 179 31-Dec-34 87 16 36 84 68 83 95 Mar-99 84 35 84
Dec-34 0 31-Dec-67 27 937 31-Dec-62 376 174 31-Dec-35 361 34 37 104 72 88 95 Apr-99 86 36 86
Jan-35 31-Dec-68 18 1059 31-Dec-63 279 173 31-Dec-36 797 70 38 106 76 90 95 May-99 91 37 91
Feb-35 31-Dec-69 10 1055 31-Dec-64 102 173 31-Dec-37 1144 81 39 107 79 92 97 Jun-99 93 38 93
Mar-35 31-Dec-70 23 1045 31-Dec-65 151 171 31-Dec-38 1096 111 40 112 83 96 101 Jul-99 94 5 39 94
Apr-35 31-Dec-71 6 666 31-Dec-66 47 168 31-Dec-39 888 101 41 116 86 101 102 Aug-99 98 40 98
May-35 31-Dec-72 36 689 31-Dec-67 937 31-Dec-40 678 73 42 115 88 108 112 Sep-99 102 41 102
Jun-35 31-Dec-73 22 38 31-Dec-68 1059 31-Dec-41 475 40 43 113 91 114 105 Oct-99 108 42 108
Jul-35 31-Dec-74 21 345 31-Dec-69 1055 31-Dec-42 306 20 44 112 93 117 107 Nov-99 111 43 111
Aug-35 31-Dec-75 7 155 31-Dec-70 1045 31-Dec-43 163 16 45 111 94 119 108 Dec-99 111 44 111
Sep-35 31-Dec-76 19 126 31-Dec-71 666 31-Dec-44 96 5 46 111 94 119 107 Jan-00 113 45 113
Oct-35 31-Dec-77 12 275 31-Dec-72 689 31-Dec-45 332 11 47 109 94 116 105 Feb-00 117 46 117
Nov-35 31-Dec-78 48 925 31-Dec-73 38 31-Dec-46 926 22 48 105 94 113 105 Mar-00 120 47 120
Dec-35 0 31-Dec-79 24 1554 31-Dec-74 345 31-Dec-47 1516 40 49 101 94 111 107 Apr-00 121 48 121
Jan-36 31-Dec-80 6 1546 31-Dec-75 155 31-Dec-48 1363 60 50 101 96 111 111 May-00 119 49 119
Feb-36 31-Dec-81 34 1405 31-Dec-76 126 31-Dec-49 1347 80 51 98 97 111 111 Jun-00 119 50 119
Mar-36 31-Dec-82 61 1159 31-Dec-77 275 31-Dec-50 839 83 52 91 98 111 110 Jul-00 120 13 51 120
Apr-36 1 31-Dec-83 40 666 31-Dec-78 925 31-Dec-51 694 477 53 86 97 110 110 Aug-00 119 52 119
May-36 31-Dec-84 35 459 31-Dec-79 1554 31-Dec-52 315 478 54 85 96 110 110 Sep-00 116 53 116
Jun-36 2 31-Dec-85 16 179 31-Dec-80 1546 31-Dec-53 139 307 55 89 95 110 108 Oct-00 115 54 115
Jul-36 31-Dec-86 22 134 31-Dec-81 1405 31-Dec-54 44 122 56 94 95 108 106 Nov-00 113 55 113
Aug-36 31-Dec-87 2 292 31-Dec-82 1159 31-Dec-55 38 96 57 94 95 106 106 Dec-00 112 56 112
Sep-36 31-Dec-88 18 1002 31-Dec-83 666 31-Dec-56 1417 102 58 89 94 107 106 Jan-01 109 57 109
Oct-36 31-Dec-89 57 1576 31-Dec-84 459 31-Dec-57 1902 324 59 86 93 109 106 Feb-01 104 58 107
Nov-36 2 31-Dec-90 38 1426 31-Dec-85 179 31-Dec-58 1848 476 60 85 95 109 107 Mar-01 105 59 105
Dec-36 5 31-Dec-91 85 1457 31-Dec-86 134 31-Dec-59 159 54 61 84 94 106 104 Apr-01 108 60 108
Jan-37 31-Dec-92 39 943 31-Dec-87 292 31-Dec-60 1123 629 62 82 91 104 105 May-01 109 61 109
Feb-37 1 31-Dec-93 17 546 31-Dec-88 1002 31-Dec-61 539 859 63 84 88 103 105 Jun-01 110 62 110
Mar-37 1 31-Dec-94 27 299 31-Dec-89 1576 31-Dec-62 376 612 64 89 96 103 105 Jul-01 112 22 63 112
Apr-37 13 31-Dec-95 8 175 31-Dec-90 1426 31-Dec-63 279 45 65 90 85 103 106 Aug-01 114 64 114
May-37 2 31-Dec-96 3 86 31-Dec-91 1457 31-Dec-64 102 364 66 905 83 100 106 Sep-01 114 65 114
Jun-37 31-Dec-97 8 215 31-Dec-92 943 31-Dec-65 151 209 67 869 80 97 106 Oct-01 114 66 114
Jul-37 31-Dec-98 29 643 31-Dec-93 546 31-Dec-66 47 114 68 795 78 97 106 Nov-01 116 67 116
Aug-37 2 31-Dec-99 10 933 31-Dec-94 299 31-Dec-67 937 378 69 773 77 98 107 Dec-01 115 68 115
Sep-37 1 31-Dec-00 35 1196 31-Dec-95 175 31-Dec-68 1059 698 70 776 77 95 105 Jan-02 114 69 114
Oct-37 5 31-Dec-01 40 111 31-Dec-96 86 31-Dec-69 1055 1061 71 754 74 91 104 Feb-02 115 70 115
Nov-37 31-Dec-02 23 104 31-Dec-97 215 31-Dec-70 1045 108 72 728 70 88 101 Mar-02 113 71 113
Dec-37 25 31-Dec-98 643 31-Dec-71 666 816 73 707 78 86 97 Apr-02 111 72 111
Jan-38 14 31-Dec-99 933 31-Dec-72 689 665 74 678 68 86 94 May-02 109 73 109
Feb-38 1 31-Dec-00 1196 31-Dec-73 38 348 75 646 68 84 89 Jun-02 106 74 106
Mar-38 31-Dec-01 111 31-Dec-74 345 306 76 601 66 80 84 Jul-02 103 19 75 103
Apr-38 6 31-Dec-02 104 31-Dec-75 155 7 77 583 65 76 80 Aug-02 99 76 99
May-38 7 31-Dec-76 126 198 78 567 64 74 78 Sep-02 95 77 95
Jun-38 31-Dec-77 275 926 79 543 63 73 74 Oct-02 91 78 91
Jul-38 2 31-Dec-78 925 1544 80 533 61 71 71 Nov-02 85 79 85
Aug-38 2 31-Dec-79 1554 1259 81 50 58 68 68 Dec-02 82 80 82
Sep-38 8 31-Dec-80 1546 848 82 461 58 66 67 Jan-03 81 81 81
Oct-38 6 31-Dec-81 1405 681 83 435 58 67 65 Feb-03 78 82 78
Nov-38 31-Dec-82 1159 385 84 404 59 68 65 Mar-03 74 83 74
Dec-38 46 31-Dec-83 666 228 85 374 58 67 66 Apr-03 70 84 70
Jan-39 31-Dec-84 459 102 86 356 55 65 66 May-03 68 85 68
Feb-39 4 31-Dec-85 179 241 87 345 52 62 67 Jun-03 65 86 65
Mar-39 1 31-Dec-86 134 829 88 356 50 60 69 Jul-03 62 9 87 62
Apr-39 14 31-Dec-87 292 132 89 373 47 60 71 Aug-03 60 88 60
May-39 2 31-Dec-88 1002 130 90 38 45 57 71 Sep-03 60 89 60
Jun-39 3 31-Dec-89 1576 1181 91 389 45 55 72 Oct-03 58 90 58
Jul-39 6 31-Dec-90 1426 899 92 393 44 53 73 Nov-03 57 91 57
Aug-39 15 31-Dec-91 1457 666 93 389 44 52 73 Dec-03 55 92 55
Sep-39 1 31-Dec-92 943 60 94 382 44 51 71 Jan-04 52 93 52
Oct-39 10 31-Dec-93 546 469 95 37 44 49 68 Feb-04 49 94 49
Nov-39 31-Dec-94 299 41 96 356 45 47 65 Mar-04 47 95 47
Dec-39 56 31-Dec-95 175 213 97 342 43 47 62 Apr-04 46 96 46
Jan-40 2 31-Dec-96 86 16 98 319 43 48 61 May-04 44 97 44
Feb-40 31-Dec-97 215 64 99 289 45 49 59 Jun-04 42 98 42
Mar-40 27 31-Dec-98 643 41 100 244 46 50 55 Jul-04 40 6 99 40
Apr-40 10 31-Dec-99 933 68 101 198 47 48 51 Aug-04 39 100 39
May-40 2 31-Dec-00 1196 145 102 166 47 44 46 Sep-04 38 101 38
Jun-40 5 31-Dec-01 111 34 103 133 47 40 44 Oct-04 36 102 36
Jul-40 2 31-Dec-02 104 45 104 106 48 37 43 Nov-04 35 103 35
Aug-40 31-Dec-03 55 431 105 93 47 33 41 Dec-04 35 104 35
Sep-40 3 31-Dec-04 40 475 106 86 46 32 39 Jan-05 35 105 35
Oct-40 3 31-Dec-05 32 422 107 85 44 30 37 Feb-05 34 106 34
Nov-40 2 31-Dec-06 20 281 108 79 43 30 36 Mar-05 34 107 34
Dec-40 56 31-Dec-07 12 101 109 75 43 28 34 Apr-05 32 108 32
Jan-41 0 81 110 72 41 27 31 May-05 29 109 29
Feb-41 0 25 111 39 23 32 Jun-05 29 110 29
Mar-41 13 0 0 112 37 21 31 Jul-05 29 7 111 29
Apr-41 1 0 14 113 36 21 33 Aug-05 28 112 28
May-41 0 5 114 35 20 34 Sep-05 26 113 26
Jun-41 0 122 115 33 20 34 Oct-05 26 114 26
Jul-41 8 0 139 116 31 20 34 Nov-05 25 115 25
Aug-41 4 0 354 117 30 19 35 Dec-05 23 116 23
Sep-41 12 0 458 118 29 18 35 Jan-06 21 117 21
Oct-41 0 41 119 28 17 34 Feb-06 19 118 19
Nov-41 3 0 301 120 27 16 33 Mar-06 17 119 17
Dec-41 3 44 239 121 26 14 32 Apr-06 17 120 17
Jan-42 0 156 122 24 13 31 May-06 17 121 17
Feb-42 0 66 123 23 11 28 Jun-06 16 122 16
Mar-42 8 0 4 124 21 9 25 Jul-06 15 2 123 15
Apr-42 2 0 18 125 19 9 23 Aug-06 16 124 16
May-42 0 85 126 19 8 22 Sep-06 16 125 16
Jun-42 0 166 127 18 77 21 Oct-06 14 126 14
Jul-42 0 363 128 17 19 Nov-06 13 127 13
Aug-42 1 0 496 129 15 18 Dec-06 12 128 12
Sep-42 1 0 642 130 12 16 Jan-07 12 129 12
Oct-42 5 0 67 131 10 15 Feb-07 12 130 12
Nov-42 2 0 709 132 9 14 Mar-07 11 131 11
Dec-42 19 478 133 8 14 Apr-07 10 132 10
Jan-43 1 0 275 134 7 15 May-07 9 133 9
Feb-43 1 0 85 135 6 16 Jun-07 8 134 8
Mar-43 1 0 132 136 5 16 Jul-07 7 0 135 7
Apr-43 0 569 137 5 15 Aug-07 6 136 6
May-43 0 1215 138 13 Sep-07 5 137 5
Jun-43 0 1383 139 12 Oct-07 5 138 5
Jul-43 0 1032 140 13 Nov-07 5 139 5
Aug-43 14 0 857 141 13 Dec-07 4 140 4
Sep-43 2 0 646 142 12 Jan-08 5 141 5
Oct-43 1 0 367 Feb-08 4 142 4
Nov-43 1 0 242
Dec-43 21 107
Jan-44 0 15
Feb-44 1 0 401
Mar-44 2 0 6105
Apr-44 2 0 985
May-44 0 1247
Jun-44 0 963
Jul-44 0 666
Aug-44 0 645
Sep-44 0 541
Oct-44 0 39
Nov-44 0 206
Dec-44 2 7 67
Jan-45 1 0 43
Feb-45 0 227
Mar-45 4 0 546
Apr-45 5 0 938
May-45 0 958
Jun-45 0 772
Jul-45 0 591
Aug-45 0 44
Sep-45 0 47
Oct-45 0 305
Nov-45 0 163
Dec-45 3 13 73
Jan-46 2 0 376
Feb-46 9 0 74
Mar-46 18 0 139
Apr-46 8 0 1112
May-46 3 0 1016
Jun-46 2 0 662
Jul-46 7 0 447
Aug-46 1 0 17
Sep-46 26 0 113
Oct-46 1 0 124
Nov-46 0 34
Dec-46 77 6
Jan-47 0 323
Feb-47 0 543
Mar-47 22 0 597
Apr-47 3 0 637
May-47 2 0 635
Jun-47 1 0 522
Jul-47 5 0 254
Aug-47 4 0 131
Sep-47 10 0 68
Oct-47 3 0 63
Nov-47 4 0 71
Dec-47 54 356
Jan-48 0 73
Feb-48 0 851
Mar-48 5 0 78
Apr-48 2 0 64
May-48 1 0 418
Jun-48 0 262
Jul-48 0 267
Aug-48 10 0 121
Sep-48 0 95
Oct-48 10 0 27
Nov-48 0 5
Dec-48 28 244
Jan-49 10 0 42
Feb-49 0 635
Mar-49 7 0 538
Apr-49 4 0 62
May-49 10 0 485
Jun-49 1 0 439
Jul-49 0 186
Aug-49 5 0 57
Sep-49 0 36
Oct-49 12 0 14
Nov-49 0 96
Dec-49 49 474
Jan-50 1 0 571
Feb-50 5 0 1039
Mar-50 4 0 806
Apr-50 1 0 636
May-50 3 0 376
Jun-50 1 0 261
Jul-50 1 0 142
Aug-50 11 0 58
Sep-50 1 0 167
Oct-50 5 0 443
Nov-50 1 0 639
Dec-50 34 69
Jan-51 1 0 778
Feb-51 3 0 649
Mar-51 1 0 357
Apr-51 2 0 212
May-51 6 0 111
Jun-51 3 0 57
Jul-51 4 0 87
Aug-51 0 361
Sep-51 16 0 797
Oct-51 6 0 1144
Nov-51 0 1096
Dec-51 2 44 888
Jan-52 0 678
Feb-52 3 0 475
Mar-52 10 0 306
Apr-52 10 0 163
May-52 6 0 96
Jun-52 3 0 332
Jul-52 0 926
Aug-52 0 1516
Sep-52 2 0 1363
Oct-52 3 0 1347
Nov-52 0 839
Dec-52 2 39 694
Jan-53 1 0 315
Feb-53 0 139
Mar-53 3 0 44
Apr-53 0 38
May-53 5 0 1417
Jun-53 0 1902
Jul-53 0 1848
Aug-53 1 0 159
Sep-53 4 0 1123
Oct-53 1 0 539
Nov-53 0 376
Dec-53 15 279
Jan-54 0 102
Feb-54 0 151
Mar-54 3 0 47
Apr-54 0 937
May-54 0 1059
Jun-54 0 1055
Jul-54 0 1045
Aug-54 0 666
Sep-54 1 0 689
Oct-54 0 38
Nov-54 0 345
Dec-54 4 155
Jan-55 3 0 126
Feb-55 0 275
Mar-55 0 925
Apr-55 3 0 1554
May-55 1 0 1546
Jun-55 0 1405
Jul-55 0 1159
Aug-55 0 666
Sep-55 1 0 459
Oct-55 0 179
Nov-55 1 0 134
Dec-55 9 292
Jan-56 0 1002
Feb-56 5 0 1576
Mar-56 4 0 1426
Apr-56 18 0 1457
May-56 15 0 943
Jun-56 1 0 546
Jul-56 0 299
Aug-56 3 0 175
Sep-56 5 0 86
Oct-56 1 0 215
Nov-56 9 0 643
Dec-56 61 933
Jan-57 4 0 1196
Feb-57 2 0 111
Mar-57 12 0 104
Apr-57 4 0
May-57 0
Jun-57 8 0
Jul-57 1 0
Aug-57 0
Sep-57 37 0
Oct-57 1 0
Nov-57 3 0
Dec-57 72
Jan-58 1 0
Feb-58 5 0
Mar-58 4 0
Apr-58 0
May-58 3 0
Jun-58 10 0
Jul-58 9 0
Aug-58 9 0
Sep-58 10 0
Oct-58 3 0
Nov-58 0
Dec-58 3 57
Jan-59 0
Feb-59 1 0
Mar-59 13 0
Apr-59 5 0
May-59 6 0
Jun-59 0
Jul-59 15 0
Aug-59 10 0
Sep-59 10 0
Oct-59 3 0
Nov-59 3 0
Dec-59 2 68
Jan-60 0
Feb-60 0
Mar-60 6 0
Apr-60 26 0
May-60 10 0
Jun-60 4 0
Jul-60 5 0
Aug-60 7 0
Sep-60 9 0
Oct-60 17 0
Nov-60 13 0
Dec-60 1 98
Jan-61 0
Feb-61 3 0
Mar-61 2 0
Apr-61 4 0
May-61 0
Jun-61 2 0
Jul-61 12 0
Aug-61 0
Sep-61 1 0
Oct-61 8 0
Nov-61 0
Dec-61 2 34
Jan-62 0
Feb-62 0
Mar-62 0
Apr-62 0
May-62 0
Jun-62 0
Jul-62 0
Aug-62 0
Sep-62 0
Oct-62 2 0
Nov-62 0
Dec-62 1 3
Jan-63 0
Feb-63 0
Mar-63 0
Apr-63 0
May-63 0
Jun-63 1 0
Jul-63 0
Aug-63 2 0
Sep-63 11 0
Oct-63 5 0
Nov-63 0
Dec-63 19
Jan-64 1 0
Feb-64 0
Mar-64 0
Apr-64 1 0
May-64 0
Jun-64 1 0
Jul-64 0
Aug-64 0
Sep-64 2 0
Oct-64 0
Nov-64 0
Dec-64 5
Jan-65 0
Feb-65 0
Mar-65 0
Apr-65 2 0
May-65 0
Jun-65 2 0
Jul-65 0
Aug-65 0
Sep-65 0
Oct-65 0
Nov-65 0
Dec-65 4
Jan-66 0
Feb-66 0
Mar-66 6 0
Apr-66 0
May-66 4 0
Jun-66 0
Jul-66 0
Aug-66 3 0
Sep-66 5 0
Oct-66 0
Nov-66 0
Dec-66 1 19
Jan-67 3 0
Feb-67 2 0
Mar-67 0
Apr-67 0
May-67 16 0
Jun-67 3 0
Jul-67 0
Aug-67 0
Sep-67 3 0
Oct-67 0
Nov-67 0
Dec-67 27
Jan-68 0
Feb-68 0
Mar-68 0
Apr-68 1 0
May-68 2 0
Jun-68 4 0
Jul-68 0
Aug-68 0
Sep-68 0
Oct-68 4 0
Nov-68 7 0
Dec-68 18
Jan-69 0
Feb-69 2 0
Mar-69 5 0
Apr-69 0
May-69 2 0
Jun-69 0
Jul-69 0
Aug-69 0
Sep-69 1 0
Oct-69 0
Nov-69 0
Dec-69 10
Jan-70 0
Feb-70 0
Mar-70 4 0
Apr-70 4 0
May-70 1 0
Jun-70 0
Jul-70 7 0
Aug-70 4 0
Sep-70 0
Oct-70 1 0
Nov-70 1 0
Dec-70 1 23
Jan-71 0
Feb-71 0
Mar-71 0
Apr-71 2 0
May-71 1 0
Jun-71 0
Jul-71 0
Aug-71 0
Sep-71 1 0
Oct-71 0
Nov-71 0
Dec-71 2 6
Jan-72 0
Feb-72 0
Mar-72 1 0
Apr-72 0
May-72 1 0
Jun-72 7 0
Jul-72 0
Aug-72 18 0
Sep-72 4 0
Oct-72 1 0
Nov-72 3 0
Dec-72 1 36
Jan-73 0
Feb-73 2 0
Mar-73 5 0
Apr-73 6 0
May-73 3 0
Jun-73 0
Jul-73 0
Aug-73 0
Sep-73 3 0
Oct-73 3 0
Nov-73 0
Dec-73 22
Jan-74 0
Feb-74 0
Mar-74 3 0
Apr-74 0
May-74 0
Jun-74 0
Jul-74 7 0
Aug-74 0
Sep-74 6 0
Oct-74 4 0
Nov-74 1 0
Dec-74 21
Jan-75 1 0
Feb-75 0
Mar-75 3 0
Apr-75 0
May-75 0
Jun-75 0
Jul-75 1 0
Aug-75 0
Sep-75 0
Oct-75 1 0
Nov-75 1 0
Dec-75 7
Jan-76 3 0
Feb-76 0
Mar-76 6 0
Apr-76 3 0
May-76 6 0
Jun-76 1 0
Jul-76 0
Aug-76 0
Sep-76 0
Oct-76 0
Nov-76 0
Dec-76 19
Jan-77 0
Feb-77 0
Mar-77 0
Apr-77 2 0
May-77 0
Jun-77 0
Jul-77 2 0
Aug-77 0
Sep-77 3 0
Oct-77 3 0
Nov-77 0
Dec-77 2 12
Jan-78 2 0
Feb-78 2 0
Mar-78 2 0
Apr-78 6 0
May-78 17 0
Jun-78 5 0
Jul-78 4 0
Aug-78 4 0
Sep-78 5 0
Oct-78 0
Nov-78 1 0
Dec-78 48
Jan-79 0
Feb-79 1 0
Mar-79 4 0
Apr-79 9 0
May-79 1 0
Jun-79 1 0
Jul-79 0
Aug-79 7 0
Sep-79 1 0
Oct-79 0
Nov-79 0
Dec-79 24
Jan-80 0
Feb-80 1 0
Mar-80 0
Apr-80 0
May-80 0
Jun-80 0
Jul-80 2 0
Aug-80 0
Sep-80 0
Oct-80 0
Nov-80 0
Dec-80 3 6
Jan-81 0
Feb-81 1 0
Mar-81 3 0
Apr-81 7 0
May-81 6 0
Jun-81 1 0
Jul-81 7 0
Aug-81 0
Sep-81 0
Oct-81 8 0
Nov-81 1 0
Dec-81 34
Jan-82 0
Feb-82 2 0
Mar-82 6 0
Apr-82 2 0
May-82 0
Jun-82 2 0
Jul-82 13 0
Aug-82 5 0
Sep-82 23 0
Oct-82 0
Nov-82 5 0
Dec-82 3 61
Jan-83 3 0
Feb-83 9 0
Mar-83 4 0
Apr-83 1 0
May-83 5 0
Jun-83 2 0
Jul-83 2 0
Aug-83 2 0
Sep-83 10 0
Oct-83 1 0
Nov-83 1 0
Dec-83 40
Jan-84 0
Feb-84 3 0
Mar-84 2 0
Apr-84 7 0
May-84 0
Jun-84 1 0
Jul-84 2 0
Aug-84 2 0
Sep-84 10 0
Oct-84 3 0
Nov-84 5 0
Dec-84 35
Jan-85 0
Feb-85 3 0
Mar-85 0
Apr-85 8 0
May-85 0
Jun-85 0
Jul-85 1 0
Aug-85 0
Sep-85 0
Oct-85 1 0
Nov-85 3 0
Dec-85 16
Jan-86 0
Feb-86 13 0
Mar-86 0
Apr-86 0
May-86 3 0
Jun-86 0
Jul-86 2 0
Aug-86 0
Sep-86 2 0
Oct-86 1 0
Nov-86 1 0
Dec-86 22
Jan-87 0
Feb-87 0
Mar-87 0
Apr-87 0
May-87 0
Jun-87 0
Jul-87 2 0
Aug-87 0
Sep-87 0
Oct-87 0
Nov-87 0
Dec-87 2
Jan-88 3 0
Feb-88 4 0
Mar-88 2 0
Apr-88 2 0
May-88 5 0
Jun-88 0
Jul-88 0
Aug-88 0
Sep-88 0
Oct-88 2 0
Nov-88 0
Dec-88 18
Jan-89 1 0
Feb-89 0
Mar-89 17 0
Apr-89 2 0
May-89 2 0
Jun-89 2 0
Jul-89 0
Aug-89 8 0
Sep-89 5 0
Oct-89 11 0
Nov-89 7 0
Dec-89 2 57
Jan-90 0
Feb-90 3 0
Mar-90 5 0
Apr-90 11 0
May-90 2 0
Jun-90 6 0
Jul-90 6 0
Aug-90 3 0
Sep-90 1 0
Oct-90 0
Nov-90 1 0
Dec-90 38
Jan-91 0
Feb-91 0
Mar-91 15 0
Apr-91 2 0
May-91 1 0
Jun-91 33 0
Jul-91 14 0
Aug-91 8 0
Sep-91 1 0
Oct-91 5 0
Nov-91 6 0
Dec-91 85
Jan-92 0
Feb-92 15 0
Mar-92 0
Apr-92 0
May-92 9 0
Jun-92 1 0
Jul-92 0
Aug-92 3 0
Sep-92 11 0
Oct-92 0
Nov-92 0
Dec-92 39
Jan-93 0
Feb-93 1 0
Mar-93 4 0
Apr-93 4 0
May-93 0
Jun-93 1 0
Jul-93 0
Aug-93 2 0
Sep-93 2 0
Oct-93 1 0
Nov-93 1 0
Dec-93 1 17
Jan-94 0
Feb-94 6 0
Mar-94 1 0
Apr-94 9 0
May-94 5 0
Jun-94 0
Jul-94 0
Aug-94 0
Sep-94 0
Oct-94 6 0
Nov-94 0
Dec-94 27
Jan-95 0
Feb-95 0
Mar-95 0
Apr-95 3 0
May-95 0
Jun-95 0
Jul-95 0
Aug-95 0
Sep-95 1 0
Oct-95 4 0
Nov-95 0
Dec-95 8
Jan-96 0
Feb-96 0
Mar-96 0
Apr-96 1 0
May-96 0
Jun-96 0
Jul-96 0
Aug-96 0
Sep-96 0
Oct-96 2 0
Nov-96 0
Dec-96 3
Jan-97 0
Feb-97 1 0
Mar-97 0
Apr-97 1 0
May-97 2 0
Jun-97 0
Jul-97 0
Aug-97 0
Sep-97 0
Oct-97 1 0
Nov-97 3 0
Dec-97 8
Jan-98 0
Feb-98 1 0
Mar-98 1 0
Apr-98 0
May-98 5 0
Jun-98 0
Jul-98 0
Aug-98 9 0
Sep-98 4 0
Oct-98 4 0
Nov-98 1 0
Dec-98 4 29
Jan-99 1 0
Feb-99 3 0
Mar-99 0
Apr-99 1 0
May-99 0
Jun-99 0
Jul-99 1 0
Aug-99 0
Sep-99 1 0
Oct-99 3 0
Nov-99 0
Dec-99 10
Jan-00 0
Feb-00 1 0
Mar-00 0
Apr-00 4 0
May-00 3 0
Jun-00 1 0
Jul-00 8 0
Aug-00 5 0
Sep-00 2 0
Oct-00 7 0
Nov-00 4 0
Dec-00 35
Jan-01 0
Feb-01 0
Mar-01 10 0
Apr-01 9 0
May-01 0
Jun-01 0
Jul-01 0
Aug-01 1 0
Sep-01 1 0
Oct-01 11 0
Nov-01 8 0
Dec-01 40
Jan-02 0
Feb-02 0
Mar-02 0
Apr-02 7 0
May-02 5 0
Jun-02 0
Jul-02 0
Aug-02 0
Sep-02 4 0
Oct-02 6 0
Nov-02 1 0
Dec-02 23
Jan-03 0
Feb-03 0
Mar-03 0
Apr-03 0
Page 8: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
Page 9: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
Page 10: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Sheet3

Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
1
Page 11: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
Sunspot Number
of gt10 MeV Radiation Storms
gt10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
Page 12: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Jan-00 5 Apr-00
Jan-01 11 May-00
Jan-02 16 Jun-00
Jan-03 23 Jul-00
Jan-04 36 Aug-00
Jan-05 58 Sep-00
Jan-06 29 Oct-00
Jan-07 20 Nov-00
Jan-08 10 Dec-00
Jan-09 8 Jan-01
Jan-10 3 Feb-01
Jan-11 0 Mar-01
Jan-12 0 Apr-01
Jan-13 2 May-01
Jan-14 11 Jun-01
Jan-15 27 Jul-01
Jan-16 47 Aug-01
Jan-17 63 Sep-01
Jan-18 60 Oct-01
Jan-19 39 Nov-01
Jan-20 28 Dec-01
Jan-21 26 Jan-02
Jan-22 22 Feb-02
Jan-23 11 Mar-02
Jan-24 21 Apr-02
Jan-25 40 May-02
Jan-26 78 Jun-02
Jan-27 122 Jul-02
Jan-28 103 Aug-02
Jan-29 73 Sep-02
Jan-30 47 Oct-02
Jan-31 35 Nov-02
Jan-32 11 Dec-02
Jan-33 5 Jan-03
Jan-34 16 Feb-03
Jan-35 34 Mar-03
Jan-36 70 Apr-03
Jan-37 81 May-03
Jan-38 111 Jun-03
Jan-39 101 Jul-03
Jan-40 73 Aug-03
Jan-41 40 Sep-03
Jan-42 20 Oct-03
Jan-43 16 Nov-03
Jan-44 5 Dec-03
Jan-45 11 Jan-04
Jan-46 22 Feb-04
Jan-47 40 Mar-04
Jan-48 60 Apr-04
Jan-49 80 May-04
Jan-50 83 Jun-04
Jan-51 477 Jul-04
Jan-52 478 Aug-04
Jan-53 307 Sep-04
Jan-54 122 Oct-04
Jan-55 96 Nov-04
Jan-56 102 Dec-04
Jan-57 324 Jan-05
Jan-58 476 Feb-05
Jan-59 54 Mar-05
Jan-60 629 Apr-05
Jan-61 859 May-05
Jan-62 612 Jun-05
Jan-63 45 Jul-05
Jan-64 364 Aug-05
Jan-65 209 Sep-05
Jan-66 114 Oct-05
Jan-67 378 Nov-05
Jan-68 698 Dec-05
Jan-69 1061 Jan-06
Jan-70 108 Feb-06
Jan-71 816 Mar-06
Jan-72 665 Apr-06
Jan-73 348 May-06
Jan-74 306 Jun-06
Jan-75 7 Jul-06
Jan-76 198 Aug-06
Jan-77 926 Sep-06
Jan-78 1544 Oct-06
Jan-79 1259 Nov-06
Jan-80 848 Oct-75
Jan-81 681 Nov-75
Jan-82 385 Dec-75
Jan-83 228 Jan-76
Jan-84 102 Feb-76
Jan-85 241 Mar-76
Jan-86 829 Apr-76
Jan-87 132 May-76
Jan-88 130 Jun-76
Jan-89 1181 Jul-76
Jan-90 899 Aug-76
Jan-91 666 Sep-76
Jan-92 60 Oct-76
Jan-93 469
Jan-94 41
Jan-95 213
Jan-96 16
Jan-97 64
Jan-98 41
Jan-99 68
1800 145
1801 34
1802 45
1803 431
1804 475
1805 422
1806 281
1807 101
1808 81
1809 25
1810 0
1811 14
1812 5
1813 122
1814 139
1815 354
1816 458
1817 41
1818 301
1819 239
1820 156
1821 66
1822 4
1823 18
1824 85
1825 166
1826 363
1827 496
1828 642
1829 67
1830 709
1831 478
1832 275
1833 85
1834 132
1835 569
1836 1215
1837 1383
1838 1032
1839 857
1840 646
1841 367
1842 242
1843 107
1844 15
1845 401
1846 615
1847 985
1848 1247
1849 963
1850 666
1851 645
1852 541
1853 39
1854 206
1855 67
1856 43
1857 227
1858 546
1859 938
1860 958
1861 772
1862 591
1863 44
1864 47
1865 305
1866 163
1867 73
1868 376
1869 74
1870 139
1871 1112
1872 1016
1873 662
1874 447
1875 17
1876 113
1877 124
1878 34
1879 6
1880 323
1881 543
1882 597
1883 637
1884 635
1885 522
1886 254
1887 131
1888 68
1889 63
1890 71
1891 356
1892 73
1893 851
1894 78
1895 64
1896 418
1897 262
1898 267
1899 121
1900 95
1901 27
1902 5
1903 244
1904 42
1905 635
1906 538
1907 62
1908 485
1909 439
1910 186
1911 57
1912 36
1913 14
1914 96
1915 474
1916 571
1917 1039
1918 806
1919 636
1920 376
1921 261
1922 142
1923 58
1924 167
1925 443
1926 639
1927 69
1928 778 31-Dec-42 306
1929 649 31-Dec-43 163
1930 357 31-Dec-44 96
1931 212 31-Dec-45 332
1932 111 31-Dec-46 926
1933 57 31-Dec-47 1516
1934 87 31-Dec-48 1363
1935 361 31-Dec-49 1347
1936 797 31-Dec-50 839
1937 1144 31-Dec-51 694
1938 1096 31-Dec-52 315
1939 888 31-Dec-53 139
1940 678 31-Dec-54 44
1941 475 31-Dec-55 38
1942 306 31-Dec-56 1417
1943 163 31-Dec-57 1902
1944 96 31-Dec-58 1848
1945 332 31-Dec-59 159
1946 926 31-Dec-60 1123
1947 1516 31-Dec-61 539
1948 1363 31-Dec-62 376
1949 1347 31-Dec-63 279
1950 839 31-Dec-64 102
1951 694 31-Dec-65 151
1952 315 31-Dec-66 47
1953 139 31-Dec-67 937
1954 44 31-Dec-68 1059
1955 38 31-Dec-69 1055
1956 1417 31-Dec-70 1045
1957 1902 31-Dec-71 666
1958 1848 31-Dec-72 689
1959 159 31-Dec-73 38
1960 1123 31-Dec-74 345
1961 539 31-Dec-75 155
1962 376 31-Dec-76 126
1963 279 31-Dec-77 275
1964 102 31-Dec-78 925
1965 151 31-Dec-79 1554
1966 47 31-Dec-80 1546
1967 937 31-Dec-81 1405
1968 1059 31-Dec-82 1159
1969 1055 31-Dec-83 666
1970 1045 31-Dec-84 459
1971 666 31-Dec-85 179
1972 689 31-Dec-86 134
1973 38 31-Dec-87 292
1974 345 31-Dec-88 1002
1975 155 31-Dec-89 1576
1976 126 31-Dec-90 1426
1977 275 31-Dec-91 1457
1978 925 31-Dec-92 943
1979 1554 31-Dec-93 546
1980 1546 31-Dec-94 299
1981 1405 31-Dec-95 175
1982 1159 31-Dec-96 86
1983 666 31-Dec-97 215
1984 459 31-Dec-98 643
1985 179 31-Dec-99 933
1986 134 31-Dec-00 1196
1987 292 31-Dec-01 111
1988 1002 31-Dec-02 104
1989 1576
1990 1426
1991 1457
1992 943
1993 546
1994 299
1995 175
1996 86
1997 215
1998 643
1999 933
2000 1196
2001 111
2002 104
Page 13: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
Smoothed Sunspot Number
of day with Kp gt6
Year
Smoothed Sunspot Number Number of Kp gt= 7
4
111
3
57
0
87
0
361
5
797
25
1144
46
1096
56
888
56
678
44
475
19
306
21
163
7
96
13
332
77
926
54
1516
28
1363
49
1347
34
839
44
694
39
315
15
139
4
44
9
38
61
1417
72
1902
57
1848
68
159
98
1123
34
539
3
376
19
279
5
102
4
151
19
47
27
937
18
1059
10
1055
23
1045
6
666
36
689
22
38
21
345
7
155
19
126
12
275
48
925
24
1554
6
1546
34
1405
61
1159
40
666
35
459
16
179
22
134
2
292
18
1002
57
1576
38
1426
85
1457
39
943
17
546
27
299
8
175
3
86
8
215
29
643
10
933
35
1196
40
111
23
104
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
12054 12054
12419 12419
12784 12784
13149 13149
13515 13515
13880 13880
14245 14245
14610 14610
14976 14976
15341 15341
15706 15706
16071 16071
16437 16437
16802 16802
17167 17167
17532 17532
17898 17898
18263 18263
18628 18628
18993 18993
19359 19359
19724 19724
20089 20089
20454 20454
20820 20820
21185 21185
21550 21550
21915 21915
22281 22281
22646 22646
23011 23011
23376 23376
23742 23742
24107 24107
24472 24472
24837 24837
25203 25203
25568 25568
25933 25933
26298 26298
26664 26664
27029 27029
27394 27394
27759 27759
28125 28125
28490 28490
28855 28855
29220 29220
29586 29586
29951 29951
30316 30316
30681 30681
31047 31047
31412 31412
31777 31777
32142 32142
32508 32508
32873 32873
33238 33238
33603 33603
33969 33969
34334 34334
34699 34699
35064 35064
35430 35430
35795 35795
36160 36160
36525 36525
36891 36891
37256 37256
37621 37621
Page 14: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
Page 15: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
31-Dec-54 4 Cycle 17 Cycle 20 19765 126
31-Dec-55 9 4 10 19775 275
31-Dec-56 61 4 10 19785 925
31-Dec-57 72 5 11 19795 1554
31-Dec-58 57 5 12 19805 1546
31-Dec-59 68 6 12 19815 1405
31-Dec-60 98 6 13 19825 1159
31-Dec-61 34 7 14 19835 666
31-Dec-62 3 7 15 19845 459
31-Dec-63 19 7 15 19855 179
31-Dec-64 5 8 16 19865 134
31-Dec-65 4 9 16 19875 292
31-Dec-66 19 11 17 19885 1002
31-Dec-67 27 12 20 19895 1576
31-Dec-68 18 13 22 19905 1426
31-Dec-69 10 13 25 19915 1457
31-Dec-70 23 15 28 19925 943
31-Dec-71 6 18 31 19935 546
31-Dec-72 36 20 35 19945 299
31-Dec-73 22 22 37 19955 175
31-Dec-74 21 26 41 19965 86
31-Dec-75 7 30 45 19975 215
31-Dec-76 19 34 50 19985 643
31-Dec-77 12 38 57 19995 933
31-Dec-78 48 42 63 20005 1196
31-Dec-79 24 47 68 20015 1110
31-Dec-80 6 51 70 20025 1040
31-Dec-81 34 55 73 20035 637
31-Dec-82 61 57 75 20045 404
31-Dec-83 40 59 79 20055 298
31-Dec-84 35 62 82 20065 152
31-Dec-85 16 66 85 20075 75
31-Dec-86 22 69 88
31-Dec-87 2 72 91
31-Dec-88 18 77 94
31-Dec-89 57 83 95
31-Dec-90 38 88 95
31-Dec-91 85 90 95
31-Dec-92 39 92 97
31-Dec-93 17 96 101
31-Dec-94 27 101 102
31-Dec-95 8 108 112
31-Dec-96 3 114 105
31-Dec-97 8 117 107
31-Dec-98 29 119 108
31-Dec-99 10 119 107
31-Dec-00 35 116 105
31-Dec-01 40 113 105
31-Dec-02 23 111 107
111 111
111 111
111 110
110 110
110 110
110 108
108 106
106 106
107 106
109 106
109 107
106 104
104 105
103 105
103 105
103 106
100 106
97 106
97 106
98 107
95 105
91 104
88 101
86 97
86 94
84 89
80 84
76 80
74 78
73 74
71 71
68 68
66 67
67 65
68 65
67 66
65 66
62 67
60 69
60 71
57 71
55 72
53 73
52 73
51 71
49 68
47 65
47 62
48 61
49 59
50 55
48 51
44 46
40 44
37 43
33 41
32 39
30 37
30 36
28 34
27 31
23 32
21 31
21 33
20 34
20 34
20 34
19 35
18 35
17 34
16 33
14 32
13 31
11 28
9 25
9 23
8 22
77 21
19
18
16
15
14
14
15
16
16
15
13
12
13
13
12
Page 16: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
22
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Sunspot Solar Cycles
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
55
40
32
20
12
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
37986
38352
38717
39082
39447
Page 17: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
23
23
17
16
15
14
21
20
19
18
Feb02 - Aug13 (642)
Aug23 - Sep33 (781)
Aug13 - Aug23 (1054)
Sep86 - May96 (1585)
Jun76 - Sep86 (1645)
Oct64 - Jun76 (1106)
Feb44 - Apr54 (1518)
Sep33 - Feb44 (1192)
Apr54 - Oct64 (2013)
May96 - (1208)
22
95
27
5
244
42
635
538
62
485
439
186
57
36
14
96
474
571
1039
806
636
376
261
142
58
167
443
639
69
778
649
357
212
111
57
87
361
797
1144
1096
888
678
475
306
163
96
332
926
1516
1363
1347
839
694
315
139
44
38
1417
1902
1848
159
1123
539
376
279
102
151
47
937
1059
1055
1045
666
689
38
345
155
126
275
925
1554
1546
1405
1159
666
459
179
134
292
1002
1576
1426
1457
943
546
299
175
86
215
643
933
1196
111
104
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
366
731
1096
1461
1827
2192
2557
2922
3288
3653
4018
4383
4749
5114
5479
5844
6210
6575
6940
7305
7671
8036
8401
8766
9132
9497
9862
10227
10593
10958
11323
11688
12054
12419
12784
13149
13515
13880
14245
14610
14976
15341
15706
16071
16437
16802
17167
17532
17898
18263
18628
18993
19359
19724
20089
20454
20820
21185
21550
21915
22281
22646
23011
23376
23742
24107
24472
24837
25203
25568
25933
26298
26664
27029
27394
27759
28125
28490
28855
29220
29586
29951
30316
30681
31047
31412
31777
32142
32508
32873
33238
33603
33969
34334
34699
35064
35430
35795
36160
36525
36891
37256
37621
Page 18: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere
Cycle 2Cycle 10Cycle 17Cycle 20Cycle 23
Months
Smooth Sunspot Number

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
112 32 4 10 8
121 33 4 10 9
135 36 5 11 8
145 39 5 12 8
159 39 6 12 8
172 38 6 13 9
186 41 7 14 10
206 49 7 15 10
229 55 7 15 11
26 58 8 16 11
293 62 9 16 14
329 76 11 17 17
364 92 12 20 18
389 104 13 22 20
415 116 13 25 23
431 137 15 28 25
437 167 18 31 28
461 192 20 35 32
499 215 22 37 35
53 238 26 41 39
58 26 30 45 44
61 293 34 50 49
64 326 38 57 54
67 341 42 63 57
71 36 47 68 59
72 386 51 70 63
72 42 55 73 66
75 45 57 75 68
77 49 59 79 70
77 52 62 82 71
78 54 66 85 73
81 57 69 88 78
86 61 72 91 83
92 64 77 94 85
84 68 83 95 84
104 72 88 95 86
106 76 90 95 91
107 79 92 97 93
112 83 96 101 94
116 86 101 102 98
115 88 108 112 102
113 91 114 105 108
112 93 117 107 111
111 94 119 108 111
111 94 119 107 113
109 94 116 105 117
105 94 113 105 120
101 94 111 107 121
101 96 111 111 119
98 97 111 111 119
91 98 111 110 120
86 97 110 110 119
85 96 110 110 116
89 95 110 108 115
94 95 108 106 113
94 95 106 106 112
89 94 107 106 109
86 93 109 106 104
85 95 109 107 105
84 94 106 104 108
82 91 104 105 109
84 88 103 105 110
89 96 103 105 112
90 85 103 106 114
905 83 100 106 114
869 80 97 106 114
795 78 97 106 116
773 77 98 107 115
776 77 95 105 114
754 74 91 104 115
728 70 88 101 113
707 78 86 97 111
678 68 86 94 109
646 68 84 89 106
601 66 80 84 103
583 65 76 80 99
567 64 74 78 95
543 63 73 74 91
533 61 71 71 85
50 58 68 68 82
461 58 66 67 81
435 58 67 65 78
404 59 68 65 74
374 58 67 66 70
356 55 65 66 68
345 52 62 67 65
356 50 60 69 62
373 47 60 71 60
38 45 57 71 60
389 45 55 72 58
393 44 53 73 57
389 44 52 73 55
382 44 51 71 52
37 44 49 68 49
356 45 47 65 47
342 43 47 62 46
319 43 48 61 44
289 45 49 59 42
244 46 50 55 40
198 47 48 51 39
166 47 44 46 38
133 47 40 44 36
106 48 37 43 35
93 47 33 41 35
86 46 32 39 35
85 44 30 37 34
79 43 30 36 34
75 43 28 34 32
72 41 27 31 29
39 23 32 29
37 21 31 29
36 21 33 28
35 20 34 26
33 20 34 26
31 20 34 25
30 19 35 23
29 18 35 21
28 17 34 19
27 16 33 17
26 14 32 17
24 13 31 17
23 11 28 16
21 9 25 15
19 9 23 16
19 8 22 16
18 77 21 14
17 19 13
15 18 12
12 16 12
10 15 12
9 14 11
8 14 10
7 15 9
6 16 8
5 16 7
5 15 6
13 5
12 5
13 5
13 4
12 5
Page 19: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

10

20

1

2

3

SSN

Ap

Smoothed SSN (1 Year Avg)

Year

Smoothed Kp (1 Year Avg)

Smoothed Ap (1 Year Avg)

Kp

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 20: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

1859 Storm 1921 Storm

bull Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles

bull The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied)

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 21: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Sequence of Events

Conditions are Favorable for Activity

(Probabilistic Forecasts)

EventOccurs

Coronal Observations

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 22: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Phenomena ReferenceImpactsSolar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale)bull No advance warningbull Effects lasts for 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earthbull First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale)bull Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scalebull Elevated levels can persist for several daysbull Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew

bull Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale)bull Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms)

bull In extreme storms impacts to power grid operations and stability bull Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availabilitybull Driver of aurora severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the mid latitudes

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 23: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

10

bull Arrival 8 minutes photonsbull Duration Minutes to 3 hoursbull Daylight-side impactsbull Probabilistic 1 2 3-day forecastsbull Alerts for exceeding R2 (only)bull Summary messages post-event

Solar Flares (Radio Blackouts ndash R Scale)

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 24: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

6-7 March 2012 ldquoSevere impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z impact peaked and was affecting all communications 25 ATC messages were delayedrdquo

- Air Traffic Communications

7 March 2012 INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight(INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants)

March 2012Impacts on Aviation Comms

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Uncertainty of safety Alert Phase See Annex 5

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 25: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

bull Arrival 10rsquos of minutes to several hoursbull Duration hours to daysbull Short-term warnings pre-onsetbull Alert for threshold crossingbull Summary post-event

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 26: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Space Weather Impacts to Aviation

1 Aviation radiation exposurebull Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) background dose (long term career health)bull Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event dose (fleet operations and aircrewpassenger safety)bull Flying polar routes (high or even midlatitude) during increased levels of radiation may result

in an increase in exposure to harmful radiation

2 Ground-to-aircraft radio communication disruptionbull HF radio communication (transoceanic and polar routes)bull Scintillation (rapid fluctuation of phase amp amplitude of signal) outages for L-band

UHF VHF HF (satcom radar comm)bull Radio blackouts are possiblebull When Radio Communications are poor or non existent flights must operate over less

optimum routes

3 WAAS GPS Navigationbull Increased location uncertainty (during landing and approaches)bull Many aircraft are equipped with Inertial Reference Units which are dependent on Global

Positioning Satellites (GPS)

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 27: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

ALERT SOLAR RADIATION ALERT AT FLIGHT ALTITUDESCONDITIONS BEGAN 2003 OCT 28 2113 UTC

COMMENTATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF IONIZING RADIATION COMING FROM THE SUN THIS MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RADIATION DOSES TO AIR TRAVELERS AT CORRECTED GEOMAGNETIC (CGM) LATITUDES ABOVE 35 DEGREES NORTH OR SOUTH

AVOIDING EXCESSIVE RADIATION EXPOSURE DURING PREGNANCY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT

REDUCING FLIGHT ALTITUDE MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES THAT LOWERING FLIGHT ALTITUDE FROM 40000 FEET TO 36000 FEET SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 30 PERCENT REDUCTION IN DOSE RATE A LOWERING OF LATITUDE MAY ALSO REDUCE FLIGHT DOSES BUT THE DEGREE IS UNCERTAIN ANY CHANGE IN FLIGHT PLAN SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY APPROPRIATE CLEARANCE

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

Radiation Alert

14

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The FAArsquos Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) is responsible for analyzing NOAA radiation measurements and determining the exposure levels to aircrew and passengers When potentially harmful levels are exceeded CAMI issues a FAA Radiation Alert

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 28: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

15

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

bull Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic stormsbullArrival ~18 ndash 96 hoursbull Duration Hours to a day or twobull Creates ionospheric storms geomagnetically induced currents aurora

bull 1-2 Day watch products based on coronagraph observations and modeling (Highest Expected K)bull Short-term (15 -60 min) warnings based on measurement at ACE spacecraft

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 29: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

bull Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct 2003bull Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods

GPS IMPACT ndash US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

ME

TER

S

Presenter
Presentation Notes
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003 the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters was exceeded 13

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 30: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Polar Region Space Weather Above

The geomagnetic field converges at the poles creating a focal point for solar energetic particles

As geomagnetic activity increases the Aurora gets brighter more active and moves equatorward

Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 31: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

TOKYOOSAKA

HONG KONG SHANGHAI

CHICAGO

NEW YORK

82 N

1

1A

2

3

4

UAL POLAR ROUTES

BEIJING

Source M Stills UAL

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 32: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

PolarRoutes

19

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 33: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Routes

North Pole Chicago

HKG

above 82N

no SATCOM

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 34: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Magnetosphere Solar energetic particles have access closest to earth due

to the ldquodipole-likerdquo configuration of the magnetic field These protons start a cascade that brings charged particles

(causing HF outage) and neutrons (causing biological effects) to lower altitudes

Aurora

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 35: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

A Flare andor CME erupts from the Sun 8 minutes later First blast of EUV and X-

ray light increases the ionosphericelectron density

Radio (HF) communications are lost 30 to 1000 minutes later Energetic

Particles arrive Astronauts are impacted Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted

1 to 4 days later CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Electric Power is affected Navigation Systems are affected Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 36: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Space Weather in ICAO

23

ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July 2014) Recommendation 27

That an appropriate ICAO expert group in close coordination with WMO be tasked to develop provisions for information on space weatherhellipa) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft

concept of operations for space weather information servicesb) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and

regional space weather centers including the optimum number thereofc) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of

space weather information services on a global and regional basisd) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts

space weather events could have on international air navigation

Inclusion of requirements in Amd 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to ICAO Annex 3 ndash Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 37: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Challenges and Considerations

24

bull Service delivery model ndash number of centers World Area Forecast Center (WAFC) model Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) model Efficient blend of bothhellip

WAFC

WAFC

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 38: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Challenges and Considerations

25

bull Depending on model adopted how are services harmonized and harmonized in a timely fashion

bull How is value added in a cost-effective way from multiple interpretations of largely the same global dataset

bull How are forecasters trained and competencies assessed

bull How do you strike the right balance between local or regional service provision and consistent global services

bull And in the end how do you decide who provides these services

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 39: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Information Disseminationbull Phone Contact for Critical Stakeholders

NASA Commercial Airlines Power Generation and Distribution FEMA etc

bull Product Subscription Service Email-based no cost subscription service open to all

bull Website Data products and models all available there Tops News heading that will provide updates for elevated space weather

bull Facebook Active updates and education secondary to official product dissemination means Twitter in work

bull Active Media Support during significant events

26

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 40: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Background - Timeline

MET Panel Develops SARPs for Space Wx for Amd 78

April 2015 ndash October 2016ANC Approves SWxSARPs and Selection

CriteriaNov 2016 ndash Mar

2017 ICAO Invites States to

Provide SWxInformationJun 2017 ndashSept 2017

WMO Audits Potential

SWxProviders

Oct 2017 ndashApr 2018

2015 2016 2017 2018

ICAO Designates

SWx ProvidersMay 2018 ndash

July 2018

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 41: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Background - SARPbull Oct 2016 METP2 endorsed draft SARPs in Amendment

78 to Annex 3 for SWX provision ANC approved the draft SARPs and recommended inclusion of

Space Weather Advisory in Annex 3 ANC accepted METP criteria and process for selecting SWX

Provider(s)Center(s) (more later) ANC did not accept METP plan to implement global space

weather provision first and then returning later with regional provision implementation

ANC directed METP to recommend the optimum number of SWX Centers (within timeline of selection)

bull Expect completion at WG-MISD July 2017 meetingbull Requires METP endorsement at an extraordinary METP meeting

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 42: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Background ndash Provider Selection

bull Phases to designate ICAO SWX Provider(s)Center(s) ICAO issued State Letter on 9 June 2017 requesting interested

States to respondbull Response due by September 8th

WMO conducted an audit of all States indicating an interest in providing the SWX information

bull Audit against criteria developed by METP (accepted by ANC)bull Did not asses the lsquoqualityrsquo of meeting criteriabull Did not make a judgment (eg ranking) of States - only reported results of

Statesrsquo meeting or not meeting the identified criteria

Council will selectdesignate States to provide SWX Annex 3 products in July 2018

bull Based on lsquooptimum numberrsquo recommended by METPbull Based on WMO audit resultsbull Based on lsquootherrsquo considerations

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 43: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

30

Service Provision Model Discussion

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 44: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

31

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 45: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

32

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 46: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

33

Service Provision Model Discussion (Global + 4) Regional)

Radiation ndash Global Day-side HF Polar HF and GNSS Mid and Equatorial HF

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 47: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Services Within ICAO Services proposed for inclusion in Amendment 78 to Annex 3

HF Communications (propagation absorption) HF COMCommunications via satellite (propagation absorption) SATCOMGNSS-based navigation and surveillance (degradation) GNSSRadiation at flight levels (increased exposure)

RADIATIONEvent-driven advisories for Moderate or Severe effectsApplicability in November 2018Service model discussion still maturing

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 48: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Services Within ICAO ndash Example Products

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 49: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Services Within ICAO - Timeline

Image Credit ndash NASA AIA Consortium

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 50: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Current Capability

GNSS

Nowcasting fairly mature where observational data is available

Skill improving in short-term forecasting (10rsquos of minutes)

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm

Communications

High Frequency (HF) blackout can be nowcast and forecast probabilistically

Limited skill in satellite communications both in nowcast and forecast phases

Longer range forecasts remain challenging both pre-eruption and when awaiting commencement of a storm as well

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 51: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Situational Awareness amp Impacts

Radiation In September 2017 - ldquoThe solar storm we saw on September 10th was very stronghellip In a

storm of this magnitude we will encounter increased radiation levels domesticallyrdquo Operations were affected but should they have been For a flight over the pole timed to

see all of the event exposure may have been double the daily background

GNSS Augmentation systems generally monitor performance and shut down accordingly but

knowing that ahead of time may lead to different flight planning

Communications For the same September period ATC in Miami had issues with lost communications for

aircraft flying oceanic routes around Hurricane Irma Lack of awareness caused confusion and exacerbated the situation

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 52: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Evolution of Services and Future Needs

Radiation As aircraft fly farther and longer exposures will increase In situ observations will help with model validation data assimilation and operational

decision making

GNSS Additional GNSS frequency adoption can largely eliminate ionospherically-induced position

errors Engineers with time and money can engineer around some challenges but some will

remain Scintillation will likely remain the primary issue

Communications Application of HF is changing HF datalink use still increasinghellip Geosynchronous and LEO-based satellite communications evolving

Short-term forecasting gains are coming in the 3-5 year timeframe However no paradigm shifts in longer-term forecasting are likely in the foreseeable future

Given the chaotic eruptive nature of the phenomena space weather may never be like weather but we can tryhellip

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges
Page 53: ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions - ICAO Sp… · Satellites are impacted Polar flights are impacted 1 to 4 days later: CME passes and energizes the magnetosphere and ionosphere

Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges

40

Nowcast Specification of input radiation spectrum Geomagnetic cutoff (fairly mature) Radiation transport Verification and validation

Forecast Some skill in predicting decay barring subsequent activity Low skill in onset or intensity Driven by eruptive phenomena that are incredibly hard to predict with any skill

  • ICAO Space Weather Center Provisions
  • Overview
  • Slide Number 3
  • Slide Number 4
  • Slide Number 5
  • Slide Number 6
  • Sequence of Events
  • Slide Number 8
  • Phenomena ReferenceImpacts
  • Slide Number 10
  • Slide Number 11
  • Slide Number 12
  • Space Weather Impacts to Aviation
  • Slide Number 14
  • Slide Number 15
  • Slide Number 16
  • Polar Region Space Weather Above
  • Slide Number 18
  • Slide Number 19
  • Slide Number 20
  • Magnetosphere
  • Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences
  • Space Weather in ICAO
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Challenges and Considerations
  • Information Dissemination
  • Background - Timeline
  • Background - SARP
  • Background ndash Provider Selection
  • Slide Number 30
  • Slide Number 31
  • Slide Number 32
  • Slide Number 33
  • Slide Number 34
  • Slide Number 35
  • Services Within ICAO - Timeline
  • Current Capability
  • Situational Awareness amp Impacts
  • Evolution of Services and Future Needs
  • Aviation Radiation Scientific Challenges