IBM Watson: How it Works, and What it means for Society beyond winning Jeopardy!

#IBMEDGE © 2012 IBM Corporation

sBD07

IBM Watson: How it Works

and What it Means for Society

Beyond Winning Jeopardy!

Tony PearsonIBM Master Inventor and Senior Managing Consultant


In 2011, the IBM Watson computer was

able to beat the top-earning human

winners on the trivia game-show

“Jeopardy!” Presenter Tony Pearson,

author of "How to Build Your Own

Watson Jr. in Your Basement," will

explain how the IBM Watson system

was put together, how it works, and

what examples of text mining and big

data analytics means for society as we

apply technology to meet

tomorrow's challenges.


Sessions -- Tony Pearson

• Monday – 1:00pm Storing Archive Data for Compliance Challeng es– 4:15pm IBM Watson: What it Means for Society

• Tuesday – 4:15pm Using Social Media: Birds of a Feather (BOF)

• Wednesday – 9:00am Data Footprint Reduction: IBM Storage option s– 2:30pm IBM's Storage Strategy in the Smarter Comput ing era– 4:15pm IBM SONAS and the Cloud Storage Taxonomy

• Thursday – 9:00am IBM Watson: What it Means for Society– 10:30am Tivoli Storage Productivity Center Overview– 5:30pm IBM Edge “Free for All” hosted by Scott Drummo nd

3


An estimated 2 billion people are now on the Web

… and a trillion connected objects – cars, appliances,

cameras, roadways, pipelines

Data is getting more social

…20M articles on Wikipedia

…30B pieces of Facebook content are shared monthly

…There are 156M public blogs

Data volume is expanding at an incredible rate

…Data will grow 800% in the next five years

…Unstructured data growing faster than structured

Today’s Information Challenge

4


1 in 2Business leaders don’t

have access to data they need

83%CIO’s cited BI and analytics as part of their visionary

plan

54%Companies use

analytics for competitive advantage

80%of the world’s

data today is

unstructured

90% of the world’s data

was created in the

last two years

20%amount of available

data traditional

systems leverages

Source: GigaOM, Software Group, IBM Institute for Business Value"

Dying of Thirst in an Ocean of Data

5


Can we design a computing

system that rivals a human’s

ability to retrieve, analyze and

interpret vast amounts of

information?

What if an enterprise had all the

answers it needs to succeed?

6


The Jeopardy! Challenge: A compelling and notable way to drive and measure the technology of

automatic Question Answering along 5 Key Dimensions

$600In cell division, mitosis

splits the nucleus &

cytokinesis splits this

liquid cushioning the

nucleus

$200

If you're standing, it's the

direction you should look to

check out the wainscoting.

$2000This actor, Audrey’s husband

from 1954 to 1968, directed

her as Rima the bird girl in

‘Green Mansions’

$1000The first person mentioned

by name in ‘The Man in the

Iron Mask’ is this hero of a

previous book by the same

author.

1. Broad Domain2. Complex Language3. High Precision4. Accurate Confidence5. High Speed

7


The Plan: Compete against Humans

to Demonstrate Technology

8


Do you Remember IBM Deep Blue?

•Chess– A finite, mathematically well-defined search space– Limited number of moves and states– All the symbols are completely grounded in the

mathematical rules of the game

•Human Language– Words by themselves convey different meanings– Only grounded in human cognition– Words navigate, align and communicate an infinite

space of intended meaning– Computers can not ground words to human

experiences to derive meaning

9


Where wasEinstein

born?

Source: Spreadsheet, Database, etc. Source: Jack Welch and the GE Way, Robert Slater

Source: Spreadsheet, Database, etc. Source: http://www.schaeffenacker-ulm.de/en/otto.ht ml

Structured Data Unstructured Data

Welch ran this?

“One day, from among his city views of Ulm, Otto chose a

water color to send to Albert Einstein as a remembrance of

Einstein´s birthplace”

“If leadership is an art then surely Jack Welch has proved

himself a master painter during his tenure at GE”

Physicist Birth Place

A. Einstein Ulm

N. Bohr Copenhagen

M. Curie Warsaw

Source: IBM Research

Person Organization

L. Gerstner IBM

J. Welch GE

W. Gates Microsoft

Why is it so hard for computers to

understand humans?

10


Decision Maker

Search Engine

Finds Documents containing Keywords

Delivers Documents based on Popularity

Has Question

Distills to 2-3 Keywords

Reads Documents, Finds Matches

Finds & Analyzes Evidence

Informed Decision Making:

Search vs. Expert Q&A Expert

Understands Question

Produces Possible Answers & Evidence

Delivers Response, Evidence & Confidence

Analyzes Evidence, Computes Confidence

Asks NL Question

Considers Answer & Evidence

Decision Maker

11

11


Computers in SciFi Movies…

Lots of Lights and Cardboard!

IBM Watson….Lots of Work!

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Question

100s Possible Answers

1000’s of Pieces of Evidence

Multiple Interpretations

100,000’s scores from many simultaneous Text Analysis Algorithms100s sources

. . .

HypothesisGeneration

Hypothesis and Evidence Scoring

Final Confidence Merging & Ranking

SynthesisQuestion &

Topic Analysis

QuestionDecomposition

HypothesisGeneration

Hypothesis and Evidence Scoring

Answer & Confidence

Unstructured Information

Management Architecture (UIMA)

To date, UIMA is the only industry standard for content analytics. Developed by IBM, it is now an OASIS standard, with source code for reference implementation kept by Apache Software Foundation.

13


Winning Human Performance

Winning Human Performance

Computers, circa 2006Computers, circa 2006Grand Champion

Human Performance

Grand Champion Human

Performance

Each dot represents an actual historical human Jeopardy! game

Answering Precision, circa 2006

14


Baseline 12/06

v0.1 12/07

v0.3 08/08

v0.5 05/09

v0.6 10/09

v0.8 11/10

v0.4 12/08

v0.2 05/08

IBM WatsonPlaying in the Winners Cloud

V0.7 04/10

DeepQA: Progress in Answering

Precision

15


• Deep Analytics – Combining many analytics in a novel architecture, we achieved very high levels of Precision and Confidence over a huge variety of content.

• Speed – By optimizing Watson’s computation for Jeopardy! on 2,880 POWER7 processing cores we went from 2 hours per question on a single CPU to an average of just 3 seconds.

• Results – in 55 real-time sparring games against former Tournament of Champion Players in 2010, Watson put on a very competitive performance in all games -- placing 1 st in 71% of the them!

Precision / Confidence & Speed

16


IBM Watson vs. Wolfram Alpha

Source: http://www.quora.com/IBM-Watson/Whats-the-system-architecture-of-the-IBM-Watson


Watson’s

QA Engine

2,880

IBM POWER7

Compute

Cores

15 TB of

Memory

Strategy

Text-to-Speech

Jeopardy!

Game

Control

System

Human Player

2

Clue GridClue Grid

Clues, Scores & Other Game Data

Insulated and Self-Contained

Answers & Confidences

Human Player

1

Clue &Category

Decisions to Buzz and Bet

Analysis of natural language content

equivalent to 1 Million Books

Real-Time Game Configuration

Watson’s

Game

Controller

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Watson’s

QA Engine

2,880

IBM POWER7

Compute

Cores

15 TB of

DRAM memory

Strategy

Text-to-Speech Answers & Confidences

Clue &Category

Decisions to Buzz and Bet

IBM Watson Components

Avatar -Apple Mac notebook

Voice synthesis, strategies for betting, buzzing in, clue selection & exchanging info with Jeopardy Computers Windows 7 Lenovo desktop

10 Frames ofHardware:• 88 Compute nodes• 2 Storage nodes• 4 SAS disk shelves• 10GbE Network• 80 TeraFLOPS

Software:• SLES 11 Linux• Clustered NFS• GPFS file system• Hadoop, UIMA-AS• 700 KLOC Java• 300 KLOC C++

IBM Power750 servers (POWER7)

Watson’s

Game

Controller

19


Storage in IBM Watson

• Sources– Encyclopedias– Dictionaries– Books and Web pages– Quotations– Wire News– Knowledge Bases– Lexical Database of English

• Test and Training Data– J! Archive

2 IBM Power750 servers• Clustered NFS• IBM GPFS file system

4 IBM EXP 12S disk shelves• 48 x 450GB SAS drives• 10.4 TB of RAID-1 space• 1 TB of unstructured data

16 TB of DRAM memory


� Watson Wins!

� Largest Jeopardy! in 5 years

� 34.5M Jeopardy! Viewers

� 1.3B+ Impressions

� Over 10,000 Media Stories

� 11,000 attend watch events

� 2.5M+ Videos Views

� 12,582 Twitter tweets

� 25,763 Facebook Fans

On February 14-16, 2011 , IBM Watson changed history, introducing a system that rivaled a human’s ability to answer questions posed in natural language with speed, accuracy and confidence.

21


Reflections on IBM Watson


How to Build your Own Watson Jr.

In your Basement (eight steps)1. Acquire Hardware

2. Establish Networking

3. Install Linux and Middleware

4. Download information sources

Server 1:Presentation

Server

This will be your avatar interface to ask questions and display answers

Server 2:Business Logic

Server

This will be your compute node for

analytics

Server 3:File / Database

Server

This will be your information source

repository

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How to Build your Own Watson Jr.

In your Basement (eight steps)

5. Query Panel – Parsing the Question

6. Implement Hadoop, UIMA with Java, C++ and XML

• This is the part we call in the industry a “Small Matter of Programming” (SMOP)

7. UIMA-AS Parallel Processing

8. Testing and Training

Element # of Cores Response

Single core 1 2 hours

3 Quad-Core servers 12 10 minutes

1 Frame (Watson) 288 30 seconds

IBM Watson 2880 3 seconds

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One Year Later –

IBM Watson by the numbers

15

5

386

77

Million viewers watched the rerun of IBM Watson’s triumph on Jeopardy!

Universities are collaborating with IBM on Watson and Analytics

Thousand downloads of “How to build your own Watson Jr. in your basement”

Members of U.S. Congress that have competed against Watson

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…built on a massively parallel

probabilistic evidence-based

architecture

UnderstandsNatural

Language of human

speech

Adapts and Learns from

user selections and responses

Generates and evaluates

hypothesis for better outcomes

IBM Watson brings together a set of

transformational technologies to

drive optimized outcomes

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#IBMEDGE © 2012 IBM Corporation27 8/2/2011

Watson was built for Jeopardy!

Can be enhanced for future applications

Watson's current capabilities were constrained for Jeopardy! requirements...

• English only

• A single questioner per system instance

• 3-second response time

• Static content

• Unstructured text

• Requires training data – history of questions and answers

...but future Watson enhancements are possible with further development...

• Multiple, varied users

• More dynamic content updates

• More/varied training data

• Varied response times

• Additional languages

Early 2011 Future

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IBM PureSystems

IBM Watson10 Frames

IBM PureFlex4 Frames

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60% Reduced Floor Space!


IBM Watson has the capabilities to address grand

business and societal challenges

Contact Center

Healthcare Financial Services

Government

Diagnostic/treatment

assistance, evidenced-

based insights,

collaborative medicine

Investment and

retirement planning,

institutional trading and

decision support

Call center and tech support

services, enterprise

knowledge management,

consumer insight

Public safety, improved

information sharing,

security

Transforming how Business Thinks,

Acts, and Operates

29


Medical information is doubling every 5 years, much of which is unstructured

81% of physicians report spending 5 hours or less per month reading medical journals

Source: International Journal of Circumpolar Health, DoctorDirectory.com, Institute for Medicine"

Healthcare Industry is beset with

complex information challenges

Medicine has become too complex (and only) about 20 percent of the knowledge clinicians use today is evidence-based.”

--- Steven Shapiro, Chief Medical and Scientific Officer, UPMC

30


Interprets and understands natural language questions

Analyzes large volumesof unstructured data

Quantifies degrees of confidence in potential

answers

Supports iterativedialogue to refine results

Adapts and learns to improve results over time

Why is Watson Technology

ideal for Healthcare?

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Source: IBM Research, MI, SCIP, BCG analysis

What condition has red eye, pain, inflammation, blurred vision, floating spots and sensitivity to light?

What condition has red eye, pain, inflammation, blurred vision, floating spots and sensitivity to light?

Physician Notes, Medical Journals, Pathology results, Clinical Trials, Wikipedia, etc

Physician Notes, Medical Journals, Pathology results, Clinical Trials, Wikipedia, etc

Family History, Physical Exam, Current Medications,etc.

Family History, Physical Exam, Current Medications,etc.

New Clinical Recommendations. New Drugs. Approved use of Drugs, etc.

New Clinical Recommendations. New Drugs. Approved use of Drugs, etc.

Uveitis 91%Iritis 48%Keratitis 29%

Uveitis 91%Iritis 48%Keratitis 29%

#IBMEDGE © 2012 IBM Corporation 32

• Private data• Custom algorithms• Custom applications

Customized Watson Solution Appliance

IBM Watson for Healthcare

Watson for Healthcare Service

...Patient Workup

Customized Solution

Differential Diagnosis

Second Opinion

......

Public domain

Public domainPublishersPublishers Healthcare

Providers

Healthcare Providers

......

Watson-enabled Solutions from major healthcare solution providers

Benefits Providers

Benefits Providers

Evidence Data Training

Data

Annotators and

AlgorithmsRelationship

Data

Watson Engine and Scoring and Confidence Models

...

Medical Professionals and Patients

• Improve quality of care

• Reduce errors

• Engage patients

• Improve audit trails

• Improve efficiency

• Better utilize skills

• Right content, right time

• Best-practices to point of care

• Capture value

• Advance Evidenced-based Care

• Foster a healthcare analytics ecosystem

• Capture value


Watson @ WellPoint

• WellPoint & IBM agreement

• WellPoint will develop and launch Waston-based solu tion –Help improve patient care –Provide delivery of up-to-date, evidence-based heal thcare

• IBM will develop the base Watson healthcare technol ogy

• Targeted implementation:– Physician Helper: Will be a consultant with the abi lity to analyze various inputs to help humans make a decision

– Load Watson with medical data to analyze and identi fy conditions• Ranging from heart disease to cancer to diabetes. • Medical histories, test results, possible drug inter actions and treatment options will be evaluated too.

– Working with select physician groups in clinical sp ots

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Seton Healthcare

• First client to utilize IBM Content and Predictive Analytics for Healthcare

– Combines IBM's Watson technology with industry solutions offering

• Extract relevant clinical information from vast amounts of patient data– Better analyze the past

– Understand the present

– Predict future outcomes

• Seton to focus on – Determine root causes of hospital re-admissions

– Ways to decrease preventable multiple hospital visits

• Facts…– One in five patients suffer from preventable re-admissions

– Represents $17.4 billion of the current $102.6 billion Medicare budget *– Beginning in 2012, hospitals are penalized for high re-admission rates with

reductions in Medicare discharge payments

* According to the New England Journal of Medicine

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• First of a kind solution for healthcare and available to help healthcare organizations with transformation opportunities

– Integrates structured and unstructured data

– Applies predictive root cause analysis, natural language processing (like IBM Watson), and built-in medical terminology support

– Identifies trends, patterns and deviations revealing clinical and operational insights. It is a first of a kind solution for healthcare and available to help healthcare organizations with transformation opportunities.

• Pairs Content Analytics and SPSS Modeler Professionalwith solution and healthcare industry specific medical terminology support and services

– Synergistic solution to IBM Watson– Healthcare solution that pairs natural language processing withpredictive root cause analysis.

IBM Content and Predictive

Analytics for Healthcare:

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� Reuters publishes the equivalent of 9000 pages of financial news every day 1

� Five new research documents come out of Wall Street every minute 1

� Asset managers receive up to 1,000 e-mails daily 1

Sources: 1 - www.financial-domain.info/integrating-qualitative-a nd-quantitative-information/2- IBM Client experience with ForEx traders3 – Derived from NYSE data

Financial services firms are beset with complex information challenges

36


Institutional Investment Advisor

Retail Financial Advisor

Risk Management officer

Utilize more information, more effectively and efficiently, to support investment and credit decisions

Provide investment advice directly to retail investors and/or support advisors for high net worth clients

Leverage superior capabilities for fraud detection and/or Compliance support

Financial Services– Role based

use case examples

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Citigroup

• Announced plans to explore how Watson fits into the realm of digital banking

• Citigroup will examine…– Watson's ability to “Help analyze customer needs”– Process vast amounts of up-to-the-minute financial, economic,

product and client data,– Provide rapid, personalized banking solutions. – Watson's Deep-content analytics, Natural language p rocessing

and Evidence-based learning with how the company in teracts with customers to advance digital banking

• Watson's financial assistance will be provided as a “Cloud-based service"

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Need to rethink what it will take to

get ahead tomorrow

Traditional IT• Structured data (local)• Deterministic Applications• Search Oriented• Query � Results• Machine Language

Emerging IT• Structured & unstructured (global)• Probabilistic Applications• Discovery Oriented• Big Data � Insights• Natural Language

39


Summary

• IBM Watson is... – A reasoning system that processes questions and ans wers in

Natural Language, across structured and unstructure d data sources, using Deep Analytics that learns for optim al results

• IBM Watson is not…– An advanced search engine, database retrieval syste m, our

new computer overlord, or the beginning of Skynet

• IBM Watson works by...– Analyzing the question, generating hypotheses, eval uating

evidence and presenting results scored by confidenc e level

• Which means that…– Society now has a new tool to help tackle some of t he biggest

information challenges in healthcare, financial ser vices, etc.

#IBMEDGE

Intel, the Intel logo, Xeon and Xeon Inside are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation in the U.S. and /or other countries.

Thank You!

Session: sBD07Presenter: Tony Pearson


www.ibmwatson.com

www.facebook.com/ibmwatson

www.twitter.com/ibmwatson(Tweet hashtag #ibmwatson )

www.youtube.com/ibm

Learn more at:

See Watson in action at an IBM Lab, Briefing

Center or Analytics Solution Center


About the Speaker

Mr. Tony Pearson

Master Inventor,

Senior Managing Consultant

IBM System Storage

Tony Pearson is a Master Inventor and Senior managing consultant for the IBM System Storage™ product line. Tony joined

IBM Corporation in 1986 in Tucson, Arizona, USA, and has lived there ever since. In his current role, Tony presents briefings on storage topics covering the entire System Storage product line, Tivoli storage software products, and topics related to Cloud

Computing. He interacts with clients, speaks at conferences and events, and leads client workshops to help clients with strategic planning for IBM’s integrated set of storage management software, hardware, and virtualization products.

Tony writes the “Inside System Storage” blog, which is read by hundreds of clients, IBM sales reps and IBM Business Partners every week. This blog was rated one of the top 10 blogs for the IT storage industry by “Networking World” magazine, and #1

most read IBM blog on IBM’s developerWorks. The blog has been published in series of books, Inside System Storage: Volume I through IV.

Over the past years, Tony has worked in development, marketing and customer care positions for various storage hardware and software products. Tony has a Bachelor of Science degree in Software Engineering, and a Master of Science degree in

Electrical Engineering, both from the University of Arizona. Tony holds 19 IBM patents for inventions on storage hardware and software products.

9000 S. Rita RoadBldg 9070 Mail 9070Tucson, AZ 85744

+1 520-799-4309 (Office)

[email protected]

Tony Pearson

Master Inventor, Senior Managing Consultant

IBM System Storage™


Additional Resources

44

Email:[email protected]

Twitter:http://twitter.com/az99Øtony

Blog: http://ibm.co/brAeZØ

Books:http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/99Ø_tony

IBM Expert Network:http://www.slideshare.net/az99Øtony

44


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IBM Watson: How it Works, and What it means for Society beyond winning Jeopardy!

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Transcript of IBM Watson: How it Works, and What it means for Society beyond winning Jeopardy!