IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products
description
Transcript of IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products
![Page 1: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
IASC Presentation
A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products
John Snook, USFSReg. 5 Northern Ops
Predictive Services Mgr. Thurs. May 3, 2012
![Page 2: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
6 km resolution
2 km resolution
Notice the increased WRF Mixing height detail in the finer resolution (2 km) view on right, compared to the coarser 6 km view
![Page 6: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2-km resolution, but State-wise view2-km resolution, but NW Quadrant view
Effects of improved resolution on depiction of Surface 10-m Wind
![Page 7: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
This is what a strong convective downdraft pattern looks like on the 2 –km WRF model
![Page 8: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Comparison of the 18-hour prediction of expected 3-hour rainfall from 8-11 pm PDT Wednesday May 2, between the 6-km resolution model on the left, and the 2-km resolution WRF on the right. model
![Page 9: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
This field, High Level Total Totals, was added in 2009 upon CANSAC OAG request. It has been a valuable item in our thunderstorm-forecast toolkit, particularly for high based convection
In this product, theyellow color starts
at about HLTT mark of 26, and red at 30.We have found the
following threshholds,for getting at least
one lightning strike in a several-county area
around these sites:Reno 26+ = 89%Medford 31+ = 87%Oakland 31+ = 100%
![Page 10: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
This is a Sounding taken off CANSAC WRF model, from the Wed. a.m. model run,valid at 2am last night. Notice the winds changing from SSE at the surface to WSW
as they climb to the 750 mb level. This is a relatively stable sounding, common near the coast. In a northern CA thunderstorm situation, K is usually above 28 and LI below zero.
![Page 11: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
72-hour summation of WRF model expected precip from 5pm yesterday afternoon through 5 pm this coming Saturday
![Page 12: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Lowering of the predicted 2pm Relative Humidity from today in frontalsystem (on left) to 48 hours later, this Saturday afternoon, also 2pm
![Page 13: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Preliminary 2012
Fire SeasonAssessmentfor Californiaand Hawaii
![Page 14: IASC Presentation A Discussion of CANSAC Weather Products](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070500/56816839550346895dde0075/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)