Ian CruteAHDB

‘Balancing the environmentalconsequences of agriculture with the

need for food security’

Ian CruteAHDB Chief Scientist

Balancing the environmentalconsequences of agriculturewith the need for food security

Norwich Farming Conference23 February 2012

Food (and agriculture) has rapidly become centre-stage

Energy

Environment

HumanHealth

EmergingTechnologies

Global Politicsand

Economics

Researchand

KT/KE

FOOD

Global marketsTrade Policy

Poverty alleviation

Climate changeWater – Land Use

Biodiversity“Peak –Land”

BiofuelsBiorenewablesEnergy prices

“Peak Oil”

GenomicsNanotechnology

NutritionDiet & Health

BiologyChemistryEconomics

EngineeringSocial Sciences

My five key points (1)

1. Twenty years (’86 – ’07) of plentiful, cheap food have ledglobally (with exceptions) to:

- complacency;- disinvestment in technical skills, research capacity and extension;- a change of primary focus(environmental impact; socio-economic issues; and basic science).

2. Agriculture is a man-managed ecosystem designed toharvest solar energy for a single species (us) – environmentalimpact is (and always has been) inevitable.

3. Land use and land management provide the key to achieving abalance between the need to increase food production andenvironmental consequences.

4. The UK (and UK agriculture) has an opportunity(maybe even a responsibility) to demonstrate howproduction x environment challenges can be elucidatedand resolved.

5. “Win-Win” solutions are mostly illusory - new metrics arerequired to enable sound, case-specific, decision-makingbased on data and not dogma to quantify trade-offs and delivercompromises.

My five key points (2)

June 2011January 2011

2011 saw the UK deliver two internationally influential reports

Putting foodsecurity intocontext

Increased demand45% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

WaterIncreased demand

30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030

(FAO)

ClimateChange

1. Increasing population

2. Increasing levels ofurbanisation

3. The goal to alleviatepoverty

4. Climate Change

In 2008 Professor Sir John Beddingtonraised the issue of the “Perfect Storm…”