IAMC Newsletter – 2017 edition - Joint Global Change ...“global deep transformation pathways”,...
Transcript of IAMC Newsletter – 2017 edition - Joint Global Change ...“global deep transformation pathways”,...
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Future events
6-17 November, 2017 –COP23 in
Bonn, Germany
5-7 December, 2017, The 10th
annual meeting of the IAMC,
Recife, Brazil.
December 11-15, 2017: AGU Fall
meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana.
22-24 May 2018 - International
conference on negative CO2
emissions, Gothenburg, Sweden
Calls for abstracts
July 22, 2017: closing of the
abstract submission deadline for
the 10th annual meeting of the
IAMC.
August 2, 2017: AGU session
GC023: Confronting the Changing
Threats to the Security of Energy,
Water, and Land Resource-Systems
August 2, 2017: AGU session
GC044: Integrated Assessment
Models and their Applications to
Global Change Research
August 2, 2017: AGU Session
GC045: Integrated Human - Earth
Systems Modeling for Vulnerability
and Risk Assessment, Adaptation
August 15, 2017: Call for Papers
special issue on demand-side
approaches to 1.5°C mitigation
December 1, 2017: Abstracts for
the international conference on
Negative CO2 Emissions
December 1, 2017: Scenario
submission for IPCC SR1.5
Contact IAMC
If you have feedback or suggestions for
future newsletters (e.g. events or activities)
please do not hesitate to send them to
[email protected]. For specific
research and IAMC community related
questions, please use the contact form on
the website.
IAMC Newsletter – 2017 edition
You are reading the newsletter of the Integrated Assessment
Modeling Consortium. This newsletter will be delivered annually,
with the objective of keeping the community informed of recent and
future events.
News and Updates
The ninth annual IAMC meeting (2016)
Report by Heleen van Soest (PBL)
The 9th Annual IAMC Meeting was hosted by the Energy Research
Institute (ERI) in Beijing, from 5-7 December, 2016. Around 200
representatives from the IAM and collaborating communities joined
the meeting with over 40 oral and 40 poster presentations.
Naturally, the meeting started with an IPCC/UNFCCC session,
addressing IPCC priorities and implications for IAM work in the next
IPCC cycle. The latest findings on 1.5°C scenarios were presented,
followed by presentations on the financial implications of transition
pathways.
Parallel sessions on the first day dealt with “analysis of climate
change, climate impacts and adaptation in IAM applications”, and
“global deep transformation pathways”, with the latter looking at
1.5°C scenarios in more detail. The second day was focused on
“From climate policy to broader sustainable development analysis:
New IAM analyses on the climate policy – sustainable development
nexus and sustainable development strategies”. This session put
climate in a wider development perspective, highlighting the need to
coordinate research on various SDGs. It was noted that SDGs can
help incentivize climate policy at the national level. Other parallel
sessions addressed “National and regional transformation pathways,
including INDCs and mid-century mitigation strategies; Uncertainty
and the use of IAM projections; and Ratcheting up the NDCs –
national roadmaps consistent with the global objectives of 1.5°C and
2°C”. New this year was a session dedicated to the CD-LINKS project,
with presentations on country-level scenario analyses.
The closing session reported back on the first two days. Three broad
categories of research challenges were identified: emissions
mitigation, impacts/ adaptation/ vulnerability, and the multiplicity of
concurrent goals and objectives. As such, this annual meeting
reflected the changed policy landscape, with most notably the Paris
Agreement and the SDGs, very well. Secondly, the meeting also
underscored the need for a greater focus on both the local and the
social level. Participants concluded that, to tackle these challenges,
collaboration is needed between national and global model teams.
Furthermore, bridges with other scientific communities need to be
build or reinforced.
The IAMC annual award 2016 was given to Keywan Riahi (IIASA) and
the award for the best poster was given to Heleen van Soest (PBL,
poster: “Low-Emission Pathways in 11 Major Economies:
Comparison of Optimal Pathways and the INDCs”).
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Participants of IAMC meeting taking place at Grand Gongda Jianguo Hotel, Beijing, from 5-7 December
2016
The tenth annual IAMC meeting (December 5-7, 2017, in Recife, Brazil)
Report by Roberto Schaeffer (COPPE)
This year, the Tenth Annual Meeting will be hosted by COPPE of the University of Rio de Janeiro at the
Sheraton Reserva do Paiva Hotel, in Recife, Brazil, from December 5-7, 2017. In the same vein of the
previous meetings, the purpose of this year´s IAMC Annual Meeting is to (1) present and discuss the
state of the art in integrated assessment modeling, (2) review the status of ongoing community activities
including both multi-model studies and the activities of the IAMC Scientific Working Groups, (3) facilitate
interaction with collaborating communities, and (4) evaluate and revisit the priorities of the integrated
assessment community.
As with past meetings, a major part of this year's meeting will be devoted to parallel sessions on cutting
edge areas of integrated assessment model development and research. And, as with last year’s meeting,
a poster session will be held which is open to poster presentations covering any topic of interest (and
which will be grouped thematically at the meeting). Each parallel session will also have an open group
discussion of key priorities in these areas of research. It is expected that each session will include six to
eight short presentations, potentially including several invited presentations. The poster session has
been a highlight of several annual meetings now. It provides a great opportunity to have more in-depth
conversations about new work.
The selected topics for this year´s meeting are (see the IAMC website for a more detailed description):
(1) From climate policy to broader sustainable development analysis: New IAM analyses on the climate
policy – sustainable development nexus and sustainable development strategies
(2) Land-based mitigation. Analysis of effectiveness and possible consequences for sustainable
development.
(3) Analysis of climate change, climate impacts and adaptation in IAM applications
(4) Global deep transformation pathways
(5) National and regional transformation pathways, including INDCs and mid-century mitigation
strategies
(6) Uncertainty and the use of IAM projections
(7) Climate policy and finance (including energy markets).
(8) Demand for different resources and the role of behavioural change.
Abstract submissions should be completed before Saturday July 22th 2017, and can be submitted via the
form on the IAMC website.
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The Sheraton Reserva do Paiva Hotel, in Recife, Brazil.
IAMC, IIASA and IPCC sign collaboration agreement on scenario databases for the AR6
Report by Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Volkey Krey (IIASA) and Daniel Huppmann (IIASA)
Since the fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IAMC is supporting the IPCC in the systematic collection and
distribution of IAM scenarios. Related databases, such as the AR5 scenario database have become
important resources for the scientific community, ensuring transparency, visibility and efficient
dissemination of IAM scenarios.
To continue this successful collaboration, an agreement was recently signed by WG III of the IPCC, the
IAMC, and IIASA to establish comprehensive scenario databases for the forthcoming “Special Report on
Global Warming of 1.5°C” (SR1.5, 2018) and the “Sixth Assessment Report” (AR6, 2021/2022). A call for
scenario submissions for the SR1.5 scenario database was circulated to the scientific community, with
submissions being accepted until December 1, 2017, for inclusion in the analysis of SR1.5. In addition to
the open submission process, the SR1.5 scenario database will also include the IAM implementations of
the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) and scenarios from the IAM-community projects ADVANCE,
CD-LINKS, and multiple ongoing projects of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF). The SR1.5 and AR6
scenario datasets will be publicly released following the publication of the reports to guarantee also in
the future transparency and accessibility of the underlying research, including effective dissemination of
the scenario datasets compiled for the IPCC reports.
For further information on the IPCC timeline for the forthcoming Special Reports and the AR6, please see
the following schedule.
Scientific Working Group updates
Scenarios Working Group
The Scientific Working Group on Scenarios – led by Keywan Riahi (IIASA), Detlef van Vuuren (PBL) and
Tom Kram (PBL) – finalized in January the Special Issue (editorial) on the Shared Socio-economic
Pathways that was published in Global Environmental Change. Since then, the work has focussed on
ensuring a hand-over of the data for the climate modelling community. For this, the data needed to be
harmonised for the starting years with historical data sources. The harmonised data for emissions and
land use will be available from August onwards, and will be subsequently used for “CMIP6” (Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project, a comparison project of climate models). Another activity has focussed
on adding new scenarios to the SSP set. The most important are scenarios aimed at the 1.5 degree
target. The current data (consistent with the Special Issue) on the SSPs can be found at the SSP Database
website, as made available by the FEEM, IIASA PIK, PBL, PNNL and NIES modelling teams. The scenario
working group aim to open up the database for submission of more SSP-based model projections.