I07 Simulation
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Transcript of I07 Simulation
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Computer Simulation
Deliverable 12I
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Improve Module Roadmap
Define1D – Define VOC, VOB, and CTQ’s2D – Define Project Boundaries3D – Quantify Project Value4D – Develop Project Mgmt. Plan
Measure5M – Document Process6M – Prioritize List of X’s7M – Create Data Collection Plan8M – Validate Measurement System9M – Establish Baseline Process Cap.
Analyze 10A – Determine Critical X’s
Improve12I – Prioritized List of Solutions13I – Pilot Best Solution
Control14C – Create Control System15C – Finalize Project Documentation
Green11G – Identify Root Cause Relationships
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Deliverables – Analyze, Improve, & Control
# Deliverable Deliverable Concept & TasksPrimary Tool(s)
Secondary Tool(s)
12I Prioritized List of Solutions
After determining which X’s are important, you must develop multiple ways to improve the process using one or more improvement tools. Alternate improvement solutions are then weighed against each other to develop the best solution.
• Error Proofing
• DOE • Computer
Sim.• Pugh Matrix
• DOE FMEA• Criteria Based
Decision Matrix
13I Pilot Best Solution
Before permanently implementing the best solution, you may implement a pilot to confirm expected benefits. If successful, a transition plan is developed to outline the required steps for a successful full implementation.
• Pilot Sampling & Communication Plan
• B vs. C testing• Pilot FMEA
V1.2
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12I - Prioritized List of Solutions
# Deliverable Deliverable Concept & TasksPrimary Tool(s)
Secondary Tool(s)
12I Prioritized List of Solutions
After determining which X’s are important, you must develop multiple ways to improve the process using one or more improvement tools. Alternate improvement solutions are then weighed against each other to develop the best solution.
• Error Proofing
• DOE • Computer
Sim.• Pugh Matrix
• DOE FMEA• Criteria
Based Decision Matrix
Steps to Complete Deliverable:1. Determine whether your process improvements will be made via DOE, “alternate solutions”, computer
simulation, or some combination of these.• If DOE – design a DOE to meet the desired objectives• If Alternate Solution – ask each team member to define their best solution for each X. This often takes
the form of alternate process maps.• If Computer Simulation - Develop a suitable computer simulation. A computer simulation is used to
create a model of different process scenarios and to model multiple possible solutions. (Appropriate when a DOE/alternate solution is too expensive, time consuming, or unsafe to conduct.)
• Whether from a DOE, “alternate solution”, or computer simulation, there are usually alternate ways to improve the X’s for long term benefit. Use the Pugh Matrix to review these, generate improved solutions, and select the best. Use an XY Criteria Based Decision Matrix to determine the best overall solution if the Pugh Matrix produces several solutions that appear comparable.
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Objectives – Computer Simulation
Upon completion of this module, the student should be able to:• Define computer simulation• Define the main terms and steps necessary to do a
computer simulation • List the reasons for using computer simulation• List the situations in which computer simulation is not
the best tool to use
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Computer Simulation
• Computer simulation uses computer software to create a working model of the system under studyo Real systemso Conceptual systems
• It is mainly used in the Analysis and Improve phases of DMAGIC
• Facilitated through use of specialized computer softwareo Can be performed in limited fashion without specialized software,
but is laborious
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Computer Simulation Concept
A computer simulation models the process by simulating it’s performance.
Real Process
Inputs
Outputs
Model
Outputs
Inputs
Modeling Parameters
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Basic Steps in Computer Simulation
(1) Define problem
(2) Map Process
(3) Define inputs
(4) Build model using
software
(5) Validate model
(6) Perform simulations
(7) Interpret results
(8) Recommend
and document
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Step 1 - Define the Problem
• We are asked to model the process of wastewater flowing through a wastewater line which has 15 existing feeder lines and 10 feeders which will be constructed over the next 3 years o On average, what will be the projected flow during peak periods?
Current average flow has been observed at just over 4500GPMo What is the maximum expected flow under future conditions?o How many pumps do we expect to be running at any given time?
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Step 2 - Map the Process
WW Flow
(GPM)
Additional Feeder Lines
P1
P2
P4
P3
Data reflects peak use periods.
P25
P24
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Step 3 - Define the Inputs
WW Flow
(GPM)
Additional Feeder Lines
P1 = operates 26% of time @ 400GPM
P2 = operates 44% of time @ 300GPM
P4 = operates 40% of time @ 800GPM
P3 = operates 50% of time @ 1000GPM
Data reflects peak use periods.
P25 = operates 25% of time @ 300GPM
P24 = operates 25% of time @ 800GPM
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Step 4 - Build the Model
Let’s take a closer look!
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Step 4 - Build the Model (Modeling Parameters)
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Step 5 - Validate the Model
• Current average flow has been recorded at just above 4500 GPM. Does the model agree?
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Step 5 - Validate the Model
Note that main line does not need to be sized for all 15 pumps to run simultaneously.
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Steps 6 & 7. Perform Experiments & Interpret Results
Future GPM is expected to average ~6250GPM and peak at ~9800GPM
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Steps 6 & 7. Perform Experiments & Interpret Results
Future Max No. of Pumps = 17 (of 25)
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Step 8. Recommend Improvement Actions
• Design the electrical system, pipe size, etc. according to needs
• Modify historical design criteria?
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Work Optimization
• Simulations can also optimize layout and work patterns for optimal productivityo Workstation1.xls
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Reasons for Using Simulation
• Changing (testing) the actual process:o Is extremely expensiveo Causes safety concernso Requires a longer time to prove results than is acceptable
• Compresses and expands time o Speed up or slow down process so it can be closely investigated
• Understand “Why?”o Reconstruct a past incident under specified conditions
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Reasons for Using Simulation (cont’d.)
• Identify constraintso Locate bottlenecks in the process
• “Verify” expected improvements from capital projectso Project benefits from capital improvements
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When to Not Use Simulation
• Simulation should not be usedo Without trainingo An understanding of statistical toolso When a simpler improvement method is applicableo When real data can be obtained in an acceptable time and cost
Pilot DOE
• Model creator does not have an understanding of process methodology or statistical analysis
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Simulation Software
• Crystal Ballo Acts as an Excel add-ino Simulates process via multiple “snap-shots” of processo Risk analysis tool
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Learning Check – Computer Simulation
Upon completion of this module, the student should be able to:• Define computer simulation• Define the main terms and steps necessary to do a
computer simulation • List the reasons for using computer simulation• List the situations in which computer simulation is not
the best tool to use