“I think I’m losing my voice” Voice telecommunications in the Internet era
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1 “I think I’m losing my voice” Voice telecommunications in the Internet era Taylor REYNOLDS OECD views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and ot necessarily reflect the opinions of the OECD or its Membership.
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“I think I’m losing my voice” Voice telecommunications in the Internet era. Taylor REYNOLDS OECD. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the OECD or its Membership. My wife I want our old phone back - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of “I think I’m losing my voice” Voice telecommunications in the Internet era
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“I think I’m losing my voice”
Voice telecommunications inthe Internet era
Taylor REYNOLDS
OECD
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author anddo not necessarily reflect the opinions of the OECD or its Membership.
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Voice troubles “chez les Reynolds”
My wife– I want our old phone back
– So which phone am I supposed to call with when you’re travelling?
– The quality is SO low
– No one ever calls.
– The calls don’t skip anywhere when broadband is down
Taylor– VoIP is great!
– It’s fantastic to have a US, CH and FR line at home
– The prices are SO low
– Calls from US are free
– The calls skip over the French PSTN
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How important is voice?Access growth 1997-2005
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Fixed telecommunciation paths (voice) Mobile Other broadband Cable DSL
Subscribers access (millions)
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The telecom industry is still “voice”
Voice– Voice is at least 79% of total telecom revenues in all OECD
countries – Of Verizon’s USD 75 billion in revenues - only 14% were from
data
Mobile– OECD mobile revenues alone were 40% of total telecom
revenues in 2005– Mobile over of 50% of total revenues in 12 countries– Mobile revenue in Japan or US is larger than the GDP of 125
out of 213 countries covered by the World Bank
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Big change #1:Growth of mobile
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Mobile (subscription) Mobile (prepay) Mobile (3G)
Mobile subscribers (millions)
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Traditional mobile vs 3G growth
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
1993/2002 1994/2003 1995/2004 1996/2005
Cellular subscribers (1993-1996)
3G cellular subscribers (2002-2005)
OECD cellular mobile vs 3G, four year growth from 20 million subscribers
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Big change #2:Shift to VoIP
Proportion of VoIP revenues to total revenues declines €10/month for 1 Mbit/s wholesale transit = 4 continuous
phone conversations at 256 kbit/s (high quality). France: Unlimited phone calls to France and 25
countries VoIP is technically only authorization and directory There is practically no marginal cost for a call. XBOX, WII, PS3, XBOX360, PS2 do voice - next?
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Policy issue: Numbering
We don’t call numbers. We call people (with a name) There is no geography in the network. A call to an Orange VoIP-
customer in The Netherlands is routed through Paris. (No more switches)
Name PSTN-number IP-number Network identifier (seems redundant)
Numbers == billing? Number portability and VoIP?
Then what is a number worth? To me a Paris-based “01” area code was worth EUR 100
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Policy issue: Interconnection
From RPP to CPP to NPP (No Party Pays) Interconnection is guaranteed money for all involved There is essentially a terminating monopoly Low impetus for change: Everybody gets their cut so
why would participants be against it? Unclear to end-user. Why does it cost 15 cents to
connect to mobile and 0 cent to fixed? Same general idea, similar technology
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Policy issue: VoIP and traffic prioritisation
Voice can be one of the biggest winners or losers with traffic prioritisation
Discriminatory traffic prioritisation can severely degrade VoIP traffic– Jitter– Lags
Encrypted transmissions are still subject to anti-competitive traffic shaping
Jitter
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34 5
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
18
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Policy issue: Universal service
Regulating voice over the PSTN and voice over IP differently is not a long-term solution
Countries where VoIP has been regulated like PSTN voice have struggled with voice development (e.g. Korea)
At what point will universal service move from being a “voice line” to a “data line”?
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Conclusions
Voice is still extremely important to telecommunication operators but they need to wean themselves off it
There are big changes in the industry
– Mobile growth– VoIP
Consumers/operators/regulators are still figuring out how this will work
10 years from now my children will laugh when I tell them I used to pay for phone calls
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Merci beaucoup
taylor.reynolds [ @ ] oecd.org
