Hypothesis The mediated model is shaped by the input and group dynamics of the PI’s and the Local...
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Hypothesis The mediated model is shaped by the input and group dynamics of the PI’s and the Local Stakeholders. Creativity is encouraged through the MM process in order to explore innovative and effective ways to address the issue. It is therefore not possible, nor desirable to predict the exact outcome. At best, some propositions can be made: * The mediated modeling process will assist the synthesis of the knowledge, experience, existing data and the summarized data that will be available through the extended program of which this mediated modeling exercise is a part. * Since a wide variety of stakeholders develop the model, the consensus based conclusions have a better change of being implemented than if these recommendations came from a single authority. Objectives The goal for the Mediated Modeling component is a mutual learning among PI’s and Local Stakeholders what the practical questions are concerning “socio-economic impacts of Uvb radiation”, determine the available information and what can be expected during the course of the project, construct and run a simulation model, develop new research questions and a set of consensus- based conclusions for policy purposes. The final model will be user-friendly. Each of the participants will be able to demonstrate the insights gained to constituencies to back up the consensus-based conclusions. A tutorial will be provided to ensure that participants are comfortable demonstrating the model to non-participants. Socio-Economic Impacts of Uvb Using Mediated Modeling Marjan van den Belt, Ph.D. (Mediated Modeling Partners, LLC, P.O. Box 1589, Solomons, MD 20688, U.S.A. Ph. & Fax: 410 535 2026, www.mediatedmodeling.com) Introduction Mediated Modeling (MM) refers to a process of collaborative model building. Mediated modeling is used as the method to construct a simulation model at scoping level. The MM process provides a platform for about ten local stakeholders (representing education, tourism, fisheries and medical professions) and five Principal Investigators of the IAI program (representing UV radiation, ecosystems modeling and aquatic ecosystems; marine, marsh and fresh water) to discuss and systematically think through the complex problem of “socio-economic impacts of Uvb” in an interactive group setting. The discussion is simultaneously recorded in the form of a computer model with the aid of dynamic systems software (STELLA). The process of modeling allows for structuring the thinking, interpret existing data, identify gabs in data requirements and discover non-linear behavior in the link between socio- economics and UVb. Through the process of joint model building the stakeholders can identify the type of information they would like to have and the researchers can summarize their results understandable and useful for local professionals. The first series of MM workshops took place on November 13 - 16 in Ushuaia. A qualitative scoping model was developed as well as a list of data requirements to be assembled during the next three years. The workshop started with the formulation of questions the model should answer. After developing a qualitative scoping model in STELLA the questions were revisited and some preliminary consensus statements about the system were presented. The participantsare committed to gather the required data over the coming 3 years. A follow-up meeting of PI’s and local stakeholders will take place in 2004 in order to upgrade the scoping model to a summary model, run scenario’s and draw final consensus-based conclusions and recommendations. Sampling and Work Done During a four day meeting in Ushuaia, four PI’s and about ten Local Stakeholders constructed a qualitative scoping model based on a list of “questions the model should address”. A list of data requirements was developed based on the qualitative model. The participants are committed to gather and submit the data by 2003. A second workshop is planned for 2004 to present the quantitative simulation model, run scenario’s, prepare conclusions and involve the participants in a tutorial on how to demonstrate the final model to others. Fig. 2 Preliminary qualitative model Some Preliminary Recommendations •Information / education about mitigation / prevention options. •Strengthen the links between research, education and policy. •Invest in basic research; many pieces of the puzzle are still missing and may not be resolved within the scope of this program. Some Preliminary Conclusions Tourists stay away from Ushuaia out of fear for UV. •Damage to health, eyes, skin, immune system. •Negative impact on fish population. •Negative impact on ecosystem services. Local Stakeholders: Miguel Isla , Dir. of Sci. and Tech., Subsecretaria de planeamiento Esteban Mel, Sec. of health Osvaldo Barturen, V.A.G. Station Gabriel Karamanian, V.A.G Station Sergio Luppo, V.A.G Station Nemesio San Román, Lab.of Bioecology of fish and phytoplankton, CADIC Oscar Bianciotto, University of Patagonia Graciela Iturburu, Chamber of Tourism Mónica Couly , Dermatologist Stella Domínguez, Institute of Tierra del Fuego of Tourism Sonia Pérez, Ophthalmologist, Hospital Regional Ushuaia Gloria Pereda, Education Graciela Ramacciotti Ing. Marcelo Dragan, National Congressman Ana Gamboa Luis Pinedo, CADIC Fig. 1 Preliminary model sectors Socio-economics Marine ecosystem UV-B radiation Total values Freshwater ecosystem Terrestrial ecosystem Marsh ecosystem Note on Fig. 1: The model overview is based on the qualitative model. Therefore, the connections between the model sectors are not reflecting all of the connections that will become active in the quantitaive simulation model. Education ? ~ CFC's ? UV eyes weighted integrated in time ? UV erythema weighted integrated in time ? annual investment spendings ? Bienestar welfare index ? Tourism annual value of T ? profit ganancia ? number Tourists ? Spending per Tourists ? UV ? Health contribution ? UVb increase Peaks Value gas regulation and climate $hayr ? Montreal protocol ~ Prevention of UVR index damage by UV index lost work days dias perdidos ? UVb reduction Peaks ? Random peak generator ? global warming ? UV DNA weighted integrated in time ? Uvb seasonal ? Salicornia production tons Cm2yr ? Ozone ? UV eyes weighted integrated in time ? UV photosynthesis weighted integrated in time ? Growth S Death S ? Clouds ? Temperature C ? Conversion density to C ? sediment stabilization mmyr ? Coastal development ? attenuation of currents % ? innudation period hrs Value Food production Sea level change mmyr ? costs ? UV weighted integrated ~ education program ? Juncus Spartina Production ? Growth JS Death JS ? Seed production ? Soil formation ? Juncus Spartina Production ? Habitat ? Nutrient cycling ? Cattle food ? Value of nutrient cycling ? Value habitat ? Value soil formation ? Value food ? Total value marsh ecosy ? Disturbance regulation ? Soil formation ? Soil formation 2 ? Habitat 2 ? Cattle food 2 ? Value habitat 2 ? Value soil formation 2 ? Value food 2 ? Total value marsh ecosystem services 2 ? Damage to skin index ? Damage to eyes index ? Total value ecosystem services ? Fish catch ? Health system availability Socio-economic system Uv-b radiation Fresh water Terrestr… Marsh ecosystem Marine ecosystem Total values IAI-program involved researchers: Susana Díaz, CADIC, Argentina Evamaria Koch, University of Maryland, USA Serge Demers, ISMER, University of Quebec, Canada Fernando Momo, University of Lujan, Argentina Horacio Zagarese, Argentina Work in Progress Lay-out done by Karine Lacoste
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Transcript of Hypothesis The mediated model is shaped by the input and group dynamics of the PI’s and the Local...
Hypothesis
The mediated model is shaped by the input and group dynamics of the PI’s and the Local Stakeholders. Creativity is encouraged through the MM process in order to explore innovative and effective ways to address the issue. It is therefore not possible, nor desirable to predict the exact outcome.
At best, some propositions can be made:* The mediated modeling process will assist the synthesis of the knowledge, experience, existing data and the summarized data that will be available through the extended program of which this mediated modeling exercise is a part. * Since a wide variety of stakeholders develop the model, the consensus based conclusions have a better change of being implemented than if these recommendations came from a single authority.
Objectives
The goal for the Mediated Modeling component is a mutual learning among PI’s and Local Stakeholders what the practical questions are concerning “socio-economic impacts of Uvb radiation”, determine the available information and what can be expected during the course of the project, construct and run a simulation model, develop new research questions and a set of consensus-based conclusions for policy purposes.
The final model will be user-friendly. Each of the participants will be able to demonstrate the insights gained to constituencies to back up the consensus-based conclusions. A tutorial will be provided to ensure that participants are comfortable demonstrating the model to non-participants.
Socio-Economic Impacts of Uvb Using Mediated ModelingMarjan van den Belt, Ph.D. (Mediated Modeling Partners, LLC, P.O. Box 1589, Solomons, MD 20688, U.S.A. Ph. & Fax: 410 535 2026, www.mediatedmodeling.com)
Introduction
Mediated Modeling (MM) refers to a process of collaborative model building. Mediated modeling is used as the method to construct a simulation model at scoping level. The MM process provides a platform for about ten local stakeholders (representing education, tourism, fisheries and medical professions) and five Principal Investigators of the IAI program (representing UV radiation, ecosystems modeling and aquatic ecosystems; marine, marsh and fresh water) to discuss and systematically think through the complex problem of “socio-economic impacts of Uvb” in an interactive group setting. The discussion is simultaneously recorded in the form of a computer model with the aid of dynamic systems software (STELLA).
The process of modeling allows for structuring the thinking, interpret existing data, identify gabs in data requirements and discover non-linear behavior in the link between socio-economics and UVb. Through the process of joint model building the stakeholders can identify the type of information they would like to have and the researchers can summarize their results understandable and useful for local professionals.
The first series of MM workshops took place on November 13 - 16 in Ushuaia. A qualitative scoping model was developed as well as a list of data requirements to be assembled during the next three years.
The workshop started with the formulation of questions the model should answer. After developing a qualitative scoping model in STELLA the questions were revisited and some preliminary consensus statements about the system were presented. The participantsare committed to gather the required data over the coming 3 years. A follow-up meeting of PI’s and local stakeholders will take place in 2004 in order to upgrade the scoping model to a summary model, run scenario’s and draw final consensus-based conclusions and recommendations.
Sampling and Work Done
During a four day meeting in Ushuaia, four PI’s and about ten Local Stakeholders constructed a qualitative scoping model based on a list of “questions the model should address”.
A list of data requirements was developed based on the qualitative model. The participants are committed to gather and submit the data by 2003.
A second workshop is planned for 2004 to present the quantitative simulation model, run scenario’s, prepare conclusions and involve the participants in a tutorial on how to demonstrate the final model to others.
Fig. 2 Preliminary qualitative model
Some Preliminary Recommendations
•Information / education about mitigation / prevention options.•Strengthen the links between research, education and policy.•Invest in basic research; many pieces of the puzzle are still missing and may not be resolved within the scope of this program.
Some Preliminary ConclusionsTourists stay away from Ushuaia out of fear for UV.•Damage to health, eyes, skin, immune system.•Negative impact on fish population.•Negative impact on ecosystem services.
Local Stakeholders:Miguel Isla , Dir. of Sci. and Tech., Subsecretaria de planeamientoEsteban Mel, Sec. of healthOsvaldo Barturen, V.A.G. StationGabriel Karamanian, V.A.G Station Sergio Luppo, V.A.G StationNemesio San Román, Lab.of Bioecology of fish and phytoplankton, CADIC Oscar Bianciotto, University of PatagoniaGraciela Iturburu, Chamber of TourismMónica Couly , DermatologistStella Domínguez, Institute of Tierra del Fuego of Tourism Sonia Pérez, Ophthalmologist, Hospital Regional UshuaiaGloria Pereda, EducationGraciela Ramacciotti Ing. Marcelo Dragan, National CongressmanAna GamboaLuis Pinedo, CADIC
Fig. 1 Preliminary model sectors
Socio-economicsMarine ecosystem
UV-B radiation
Total values
Freshwater ecosystem Terrestrial ecosystem
Marsh ecosystem
Note on Fig. 1: The model overview is based on the qualitative model. Therefore, the connections between the model sectors are not reflecting all of the connections that will become active in the quantitaive simulation model.
Education
Value gas regulation and climate $hayr
Planktonic Primary Production tons Chayr
?~
CFC's
?
photosynthesis
?
UV photosynthesis weighted integrated in time
?
UV eyes weighted integrated in time
?
fresh water
?
UV erythema weighted integrated in time
?
annual investment spendings
?
Bienestar welfare index
?
Tourism
annual value of T
?
profit ganancia
?
number Tourists?
Spending per Tourists
?
UV
?
Health contribution
?
UVb increase Peaks
Value gas regulation and climate $hayr?
Montreal protocol
?
Natural mortality P
~
Prevention of UVR index
damage by UV index
?
Grazing
?
lost work days dias perdidos
?
UVb reduction Peaks
Natural mortality S
?
Random peak generator
Secondary Producers
?
global warming
?
UV DNA weighted integrated in time
?
food
Fish food
?
Uvb seasonal
?
Salicornia production tons Cm2yr
?
Ozone
?
UV eyes weighted integrated in time
?
UV photosynthesis weighted integrated in time
?
Growth S Death S
?
Clouds
?
Temperature C
?
Natura mortality F
Fish stock
?
Catch ?
Fish catch
Correction factor
?
UV DNA weighted integrated in time
?
Value of nutrient recycling $ hayr
?~
grasing rate
?
Conversion density to C
UV corrected for extinction coef DNA
?
sediment stabilization mmyr
?
Coastal development?
attenuation of currents %
Value per unit C GR
?
innudation period hrs
UV corrected for extinction coefficient PP
?
UV DNA weighted integrated in time
nutrient concentration
Value Food productionSea level change mmyr
?
costs
?
UV weighted integrated
~
education program?
Juncus Spartina Production
?
Growth JS Death JS
?
Seed production
?
Soil formation
?
Juncus Spartina Production
?
Habitat
?
Nutrient cycling
?
Cattle food
?
Value of nutrient cycling
?
Value habitat
?
Value soil formation
?
Value food
?
Total value marsh ecosystem services
?
Recreation
?
Disturbance regulation
?
Gas regulation 2
?
Raw material
?
Education 2
?
Value recreation
?
Value gas regulation
?
Value raw material
?
Soil formation
?
Salicornia production tons Cm2yr 2
?
Growth S 2 Death S 2
?
Temperature C 2?
Wind kmhr
?
sediment stabilization mmyr 2
?
attenuation of currents % 2?
innudation period hrs 2
?
Sea level change mmyr 2
?
UV weighted integrated 2
?
Puccinellia Production
?
Growth P Death P
?
Soil formation 2
?
Habitat 2
?
Nutrient cycling 2
?
Cattle food 2
?
Value of nutrient cycling 2
?
Value habitat 2
?
Value soil formation 2
?
Value food 2
?
Total value marsh ecosystem services 2
?
Damage to eyes index
?
Damage to skin index
?
Damage to immune system
?
Sun related eyes problems
Proffession
Number of oftomologists
?
Picos?
UV erythema weighted integrated in time
~
Tumors
Number of dermatologists
Habitants
?
Sun related skin problems
?
Damage to skin index
?
Damage to eyes index
Nutrient recycling
?
Total value ecosystem services marine
Value Food production
Value per unit C NR Value per unit C FP
?
Cataract
?
Fish catch
?
Cronic sun damage
?
Health system availability
Socio-economic system
Uv-b radiation
Fresh water Terrestr…
Marsh ecosystem
Marine ecosystem
Total values
IAI-program involved researchers:Susana Díaz, CADIC, ArgentinaEvamaria Koch, University of Maryland, USASerge Demers, ISMER, University of Quebec, CanadaFernando Momo, University of Lujan, ArgentinaHoracio Zagarese, Argentina
Work in Progress
Lay-out done by Karine Lacoste
