HyMet, Inc. - Forecast Model Presentation
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Transcript of HyMet, Inc. - Forecast Model Presentation
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HyMet Runoff Volume
Forecast Model
October 2010 Presentation | by Wendell Tangborn
HyMet, Inc. | 19001 Vashon Hwy SW Suite # 201 | Vashon, WA 98070 | www.hymet.com
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Outline
Introduction
Structure of HyMet Model
Characteristics of HyMet Model
Forecast Examples
Comparisons
Conclusions
Accuracy
Advantages Over other Models
Differences
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Introduction
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Forecasts of
Columbia River inflow
at Grand Coulee,
Lower Granite and
The Dalles are
distributed on a
weekly basis
beginning late
November through
mid-September
for the upcoming
2010-2011 water
year.
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Runoff Volume Forecasts
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Importance of Runoff Volume
Importance of Columbia
River runoff volume in
the Pacific Northwest
region:
Hydropower Electricity
Irrigation
Fisheries
Recreation
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Structure of Model
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Runoff Model Flow Chart
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Area Altitude Profile for The Dalles Basin
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Characteristics of Model
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57 Precipitation stations are selected from a list
of 2197 stations located in Montana, Idaho,
Oregon, Wyoming and Washington.
Calibration period of a selected precipitation station
regressed with basin runoff: 1969-85
Verification period of a selected precipitation station
regressed with basin runoff: 1986-2010
Forecast coefficients are first determined in
calibration, then applied in verification for each
precipitation station
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Selection of Precipitation Stations
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Temperature Station10
Weather Stations Used in Model
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1. Precipitation Multiplier
2. Precipitation Intercept
3. Fraction of Snowmelt or Rain to Soil
4. Maximum Precipitation Multiplier
5. Ablation from Temperature without Precipitation
6. Ablation from Temperature with Precipitation
7. Ablation from Temperature Range
8. Snowmelt Factor
9. Factor for Soil Moisture ET
10. Factor for Snowpack Sublimation
11. Fraction of Snowmelt or Rain to Groundwater Storage
12. Groundwater Outflow Multiplier
13. Groundwater Outflow Exponent
14. Lower Lapse Rate Threshold
15. Upper Lapse Rate Threshold
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Model Calibration: 15 Coefficients
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R2 = 0.9549
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15 20 25
Basin Water Storage (Inches)
Ru
no
ff V
olu
me
(M
AF
)
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Basin Water Storage vs. Forecast Volume
Grand Coulee Dam April 1, 2009
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Forecast Examples
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Weekly forecasts contain 7
pages
Forecast seasons:
Forecast day- Sep30
January- July
April - July
April - September
January - September
Forecast in MAF
Forecast as % of (1971-
2000)Mean
R-square and Mean Error %
Confidence levels for forecast
Season14
Page 1 – Forecast Overview
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Grand Coulee, Lower
Granite and The Dalles
Basins
Daily basin water storage from
beginning of water year to
September 30
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Page 2 - Water Basin Storage
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Page 3 - Water Basin Storage
Grand Coulee, Lower Granite
and The Dalles Basins
Distribution of mean basin water
storage with elevation
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Page 4 - Hydrograph
Grand Coulee, Lower Granite
and The Dalles Basins
Mean (1969-2009)
Actual natural flow condition up
to the forecast day
Actual regulated flow condition
up to forecast day
Forecast hydrograph
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Page 5 - Hydrograph
Grand Coulee, Lower Granite
and The Dalles Basins
Cumulated runoff volume charts
for each basin
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Page 6 – Precipitation & Temperature Summary
Average, observed and
deviation of each parameter
for the entire season, and for
previous week
Precipitation (inches)
Temperature (degrees)
Reconstructed Natural Inflows
(MAF)
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Page 7 - Confidence Levels
Calculated from Forecast and
Error
Example of 90% lower
confidence level for Jan-Jul
forecast:
CL90=Forecast-1.645 *Error
Forecast = 87% (Equal chance
observed runoff will be above or
below 87%)
CL=68% (9 in 10 chance runoff
will be at least 68%
1 in 10 chance observed will be
less than 68%)
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Comparisons
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Comparisons of HyMet Forecasts
Comparison Charts of HyMet, RFC and ESP
methods for Jan-Jul and Apr-Sep forecast
seasons
Grand Coulee Basin
The Dalles Basin
Lower Granite Basin
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Comparisons – Grand Coulee Basin
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Comparisons – The Dalles Basin
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Comparisons – Lower Granite Basin
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Conclusions
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HyMet forecasts have proven equally, if not more
accurate compared to other forecast methods
Accuracy
HyMet RFC ESP
WY/BASIN GCL LWG TDA GCL LWG TDA GCL LWG TDA
2005 2.8 11.0 4.5 5.8 10.1 7.4
2006 5.8 7.9 5.0 7.0 6.6 6.4
2007 3.9 21.8 5.3 2.0 13.2 4.8 5.4 15.8 8.4
2008 5.6 11.3 7.1 2.9 2.5 2.6 3.2 5.1 3.9
2009 7.3 13.9 3.9 8.1 11.2 2.5 7.8 9.0 4.3
2010 5.0 6.8 4.4 5.9 13.8 9.9 8.3 13.7 10.9
MEAN 5.1 12.1 5.0 5.3 9.6 5.6 6.2 10.9 6.9
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Advantages
Advantages of HyMet forecasts over others:
Equally, if not more accurate
More informative
Weekly delivery; directly to your email inbox
Longer forecast season
Excel worksheet available for any date in water
year
Distribution to multiple users (5 per subscription)
Differences:
We do not incorporate the future varying weather
conditions in the model and assume normal future
precipitation for the season.
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Visit our website to subscribe:
HyMet, Inc. | 19001 Vashon Hwy SW Suite # 201 | Vashon, WA 98070 | www.hymet.com
Making Renewable Reliable.