Hydromorphology: The Shape of our Water Future · Tufts University Hydromorphology: The Shape of...
Transcript of Hydromorphology: The Shape of our Water Future · Tufts University Hydromorphology: The Shape of...
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Hydromorphology: The Shape of our Water Future
Richard M. VogelDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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CUAHSI Web Seminar
November 5, 2010
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Outline of Talk
What is Hydromorphology?
Hydromorphology Initiatives and Questions
Why do we need Hydromorphology?
A Few Examples
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What isHYDROMORPHOLOGY?
A new branch of hydrology
GEOMORPHOLOGY is to
GEOLOGYAS
HYDROMORPHOLOGY is to
HYDROLOGY
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GEOMORPHOLOGYA branch of geology
Geomorphology deals with structure of the earths surface
and the evolution of processes controlling topography of the earth
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GEOMORPHOLOGY
The evolution of earths topography is due to both natural and anthropogenic processes
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How did the field of Geomorphology arise?
First use of term “geomorphology” was around the time of McGee (1888)
Sack (2002) cite many other ‘geomorphology’ studies prior to 1888 which did not use that term
Field arose slowly, due to large number of new challenges relating to our understanding of the processes which govern evolution of landscapes
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HYDROMORPHOLOGYA subdiscipline of hydrology
Hydromorphology deals with structure and evolution of hydrologic systems
due to complex coupling between human and natural systems
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HYDROMORPHOLOGY: The Shape of Our Water Future
Hydromorphologic problems represent scientific, social and engineering challenges related to how humans reshape fresh-water systems through modifications to the landscape, water infrastructure, and climate, and how our reshaped water systems influence life on the planet.
Science Forum Article in progress by: R. Vogel, R. Hirsch, U. Lall, C. Vörösmarty, X. Cai, P.
Weiskel, C. Kroll, R. Hooper, J. Stedinger, J. Salas
A CUAHSI Hydrologic Synthesis Center Initiative
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Why do we need a new field of HYDROMORPHOLOGY?
Human influences arenow pervasive
Virgin watersheds no longer exist.
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1800
1900
Virgin or Pristine Watersheds No Longer Exist – “Stationarity is Dead”
(Milly et al., Science, 2008)
1950
2000
US Dam History
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The Net Impact of Dams and Human Water Use
From: Gleick, 2003,
Science,Global Freshwater
Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th Century.
Colorado River Delta Runs Dry
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Human Impacts on Hydrologic Systems
Proposal to Link Major Indian River Systems
$160 Billion Capital Cost
33 Dams (9 Major)
30 Major Canals covering 12,500km
34 million hectares to be irrigated (12x Area of Bangladesh) =30% of
current
34GW of hydropower
Flood Control and Navigation
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BeforeHumanImpacts
Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of humans on natural hydrologic processes
After Deforestation
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BeforeHumanImpacts
After DeforestationIrrigation
Only
Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of humans on natural
hydrologic processes
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Water Pollution and Water Scarcity
Are the two biggest water challenges of the 21st
Century
Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans
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Today, 1 out of 6 people, more than a billion
Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans
Suffer from inadequate access to safe freshwater
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Defining HYDROMORPHOLOGY
The Science of Hydrologic ChangeDetection, Attribution, Prediction and Management
Anthropogenic Influences on Hydrosphere Land Use, Climate Change, Water Infrastructure Interactions and Consequences
Natural Influences on Hydrosphere Climate Variability Interactions and Consequences
How Do We Plan For Nonstationarity?Design, Adaptation and Mitigation
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Hydromorphology: A Field/Word Needing Definition
Field Google Hits (in millions)
Geology 64.1Geomorphology 16.3
Hydrology 30.9Hydromorphology 0.024
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Hydromorphology: A Word in Search of a Field
Recent Conflicting Definitions of Hydromorphology:• Classification system for soils (Rabenhorst et al., 1998) • Structure of soil systems (Wilding and Lin, 2006) • Physical habitat constituted by the flow regime (hydrology
and hydraulics) and the physical template (fluvial geomorphology) (Newson and Large, 2006; Orr et al., 2008)
• A blend of hydrology, geomorphology and ecology ( Ŝípek, et al, 2009).
• The hydrological and geomorphological elements and processes of waterbody systems (European Commission, 2000).
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Human Induced Hydromorphologic problems are in their infancy
Global Population Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
YEAR (AD)
Popu
latio
n in
Bill
ions
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How have humans reshaped fresh-water systems through modifications to the landscape, water infrastructure, and climate?
How have our reshaped water systems influenced life on the planet?
How has water constrained and determined climate?
When/how will human induced hydrologic change dominate that due to climate change?
How will we manage such changes?
Example Questions Motivating Hydromorphology
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Human Impacts are Pervasive
Röckström et al. (2009, Nature) argue thathuman impacts are now so pervasive thatat least 3 of 9 planetary boundaries havebeen crossed relating to:
•climate change,•biodiversity loss•nitrogen & phosphorus
cycles.
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Human Impacts are Pervasive: Groundwater Depletion Reduces Streamflow
River and Well Hydrographs from North China Plain(from Konikow and Kendy,”Groundwater depletion: A global problem, 2007)
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2005 Headline: “Low flow in the Colorado River Basin Spurs Water Shortage Discussion Among Seven States”
Sorting Out Natural and Anthropogenic Influences
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From
IPCC
Nov
2007
“Today the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity.” (UN Secretary General, November 2007)
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The answer is generally
yes.
Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global
temperatures?
A Gallop Poll
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Shrinking of Arctic Sea Ice (from Epstein , 2008)
Extentof IceCover
(millionsof sq. mi)
1978 Year 2008
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Examples of human-induced climate change are now apparent on every
continent
National Park Service
NA
SA
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
US
GS
UK.govNA
SA
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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change
Jerry and Marcy Monkman
Wetland Inundation
andLoss
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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change
Dr. Norbert Psuty
-More coastal erosion
Brandt Beach Long Beach Island, NJ
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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions ScenarioCoastal Flooding in Boston under
Present and High Emission Sea Levels
Source: NECIA/UCS 2007
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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change
AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
Higher sea levels and more frequent flooding
Winthrop, MA
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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
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New York City : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years
under the High-Emissions Scenarios
Credit:: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.
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Hydromorphology Example 1
How well do we understand the influence of urbanization processes on streamflow?
What are the effects of:
Land Use ChangesClimate ChangesWater Infrastructure
AllTogether?
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Annual Maximum Flood Discharges have been steadily increasing
Aberjona River, MAQ = Annual Maximum Floodflow (cfs)
ln(Q) = 0.0147 Year - 23R2 = 0.2186
p=0.000012345678
1940 1960 1980 2000Year
ln(Q
)
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Note how 100-year flood has steadily increasedfrom one decade to the next
Peak Flows (cfs)
No
nEx
ceed
ance
Pro
bab
ility
1000100
99
95
90
80
7060504030
20
10
5
1
0.1
Variable
Qpeak 1970s-1980sQpeak 1990s-2002
Qpeak 1940sQpeak 1950s-1960s
Increasing 100year floods
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It is not only floods which are influenced by urbanization.
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Exceedance Probability
Dai
ly S
trea
mflo
w (c
fs)
1940s-1950s
1960s-1970s
1980s-1990s
ALLFlows Increased
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Annual evapotranspiration decreased due, in part to conversion from forest to urban
land use
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Exceedance Probability
Ann
ual E
vapo
tran
spira
tion
in in
ches
1940s-1950s
1960s-1970s
1980s-1990s
EvapotranspirationDecreased
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Another nearby urbanizing watershed just south of Boston …
Neponset River watershed
1
10
100
1000
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Exceedence probability
Dai
ly s
trea
mflo
w (c
fs)
1940s - 1950s1960s - 1970s1980s - 1990s
High Flows Here, like the
textbook says,
Low flows
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Like clockwork, low flows have been dropping over time as impervious area has
increased.
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As Urbanization Increases
Impervious Cover
Evapotranspiration
Stormwater System Leaks
Hydromorphologic Processes Direction
Water Withdrawals
Return Flows and Imports
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As Urbanization IncreasesStreamflow Tends to …?
Impervious Cover
Evapotranspiration
Stormwater System Leaks
Hydromorphologic Processes Impact on River
Water Withdrawals
Return Flows and Imports
Net Impact on Streamflows
HighFlows
LowFlows
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Example 1 -SummaryUnderstanding relationships between changes in:
land useclimatewater infrastructure
and
hydrologic processes
is a central challenge of hydromorphology
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Gage 1052500
ln(Q) = 0.0046t - 0.65R2 = 0.074
1
10
1935 1955 1975 1995Time, t
lnQ
p=0.01
Gage 1120500
ln(Q) = 0.015t - 23R2 = 0.22
1
10
1935 1955 1975 1995
Time, t
lnQ
p=0.00
Gage 119400
ln(Q) = 0.022t - 35R2 = 0.23
1
10
1930 1950 1970 1990
Time, t
lnQ
p=0.00
Gage 1122680
ln(Q) = 0.0413t - 76R2 = 0.2429
1
10
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Time, t
lnQ
p=0.01
First consider four basins in New England
Example 2: Flood Trends US Rivers
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Flood Trends
Define Flood Magnification Factor,
tyearinfloodyearTttyearinfloodyearT
tQttQM
T
T
−∆+−
=∆+
=)(
)(
With log linear trend model and lognormal floods
[ ]tM ∆⋅= βexpslopetrend=β tQ ⋅+= βα)ln(in
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ResultsDecadal Flood Magnification Factors
From Vogel et al. 2010, JAWRA, in press
3 Groups of USGS Gages
Group Of Sites
Total
Number of Sites
Number of Sites with Significant
Positive Trends
Percentage of Sites With Significant
Positive Trends
Unregulated 14,893 1,642 11% Regulated 4,537 481 11%
HCDN 1,588 208 13%
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Decadal Magnification Factors of Floods – Sites w/ no regulation
1,642 of 14,893 USGS Gage Sites
From Vogel et al. (2010) JAWRA, in press
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Decadal Flood Magnification FactorsSites With No Regulation
From Vogel et al., 2010, in press, JAWRA
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Decadal Flood Magnification Factors - HCDN Sites
208 of 1,588 HCDN Gage Sites with
From Vogel et al. (2010) JAWRA, in press
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Decadal Flood Magnification Factors
From Vogel et al., (2010) in press, JAWRA
Summary
Magnitude of climate induced trends are minimal compared with other anthropogenic induced trends
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Example 2 - Summary
Nonstationarity poses a central challenge to the field of hydromorphology
Hydromorphological Science Challenges:
Detection and Attribution of Change
Hydromorphological Engineering Challenges:
Design, Prediction and Management Under Change
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P
P = Precipitation; ET = EvapotranspirationSWout = Surface-water runoffGWin = GWout = groundwater
Most Hydrology Texts Cover the
“Scientific”Water Budget
Without Humans
Example 3 – A Scientific Approach to Human Interaction with Hydrologic Systems
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P
P = Precipitation; ET = EvapotranspirationSWout = Surface-water runoffGWin = GWout = groundwater
But We Don’t Live in a“Scientific Watershed”
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Special Thanks to:
Peter Weiskel (USGS) and other collaborators resulting in:
Weiskel, P.K., R.M. Vogel, P.A. Steeves, P.J. Zarriello, L.A. DeSimone and K.G. Ries, III, Water-Use regimes: Characterizing direct human interaction with hydrologic systems, Water Resources Research, 43, W04402, 2007
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Adding Humans to the Water Balance
Influence of Water Use:
Hout = human withdrawals
Hin = human returnflows + Imports
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…with three flux classes:
- Land-atmosphere fluxes (P, ET)
- Landscape fluxes (GW, SW)
- Human fluxes (Hin, Hout)
A new conceptual model of the terrestrial water balance:
hydro-system…with three flux classes:
- Land-atmosphere fluxes (P, ET)
- Landscape fluxes (GW, SW)
- Human fluxes (Hin, Hout)
hydro-system…with three flux classes:
- Land-atmosphere fluxes (P, ET)
- Landscape fluxes (GW, SW)
- Human fluxes (Hin, Hout)
hydro-system
Water-use Regimes: 4 end-member (EXTREME) regimes
Surcharged Churned
Undeveloped Depleted
Hin Hin Hout
SW + GW
SW + GW
SW + GW
(from Weiskel, Vogel and others 2007)
Hout
Central Valley Aquifer
P ET
P - ET P - ET
P - ET
Water-use regime plot
Shows relative magnitudes of withdrawals versus return flows and of human vs. natural fluxes.
(from Weiskel, Vogel and others, 2007)
hin
hout
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Selected Water-Use RegimesWatersheds
From Weiskel, Vogel and others., 2007
Nor
mal
ized
Impo
rts
+Ret
urn
Flow
s
Normalized Withdrawals
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Selected water-use regimesAquifers
From Weiskel, Vogel and others., 2007
Nor
mal
ized
Ret
urn
Flow
s
Normalized Withdrawals
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A Water Resource DevelopmentPathway
Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer,
Predevelopment 1918to 1998
Water use regimes are subject to trends
Based on transientsimulations of Reed
(2003)Normalized Withdrawals
Nor
mal
ized
Ret
urn
Flow
s
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Sustainable Water-Use Regimes
A rich topic forfuture research
Normalized Withdrawals
Nor
mal
ized
Ret
urn
Flow
s
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Summary
We can no longer ignore anthropogenic influences on the hydrologic cycle.
Hydromorphology provides a conceptualbasis for improving our understanding ofthe coupling between human and natural water systems
Hydrologic science and engineering methods must deal with a changing hydrosphere
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Improve interdisciplinary education and hydrologic literacy
• Give greater attention to interdisciplinary subjects and languages such as: statistics, GIS, systems analysis, information sciences,
• Innovative interdisciplinary programs are needed - see http://tufts.edu/water
• Integrate hydromorphologic perspective into undergraduate and graduate curricula.
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Harmonize research with policy development
• Hydromorphology must support water resources design, planning and management.
• Hydromorphology accounts for coupling between societal and natural influences on water systems
• Linkages between hydrologic, social, and political systems are needed to improve decisions about sustainable water use, management and land use.
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Ensure commitments to observational programs
• Keeling (2008) said “The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade, and poring over the records.”
• Milly et al. (2008) said: “Modeling should be used to synthesize observations; it can never replace them.
• In a nonstationary world, continuity of observations is crucial.”