Hydrological Cycle and Water Resources Sustainability in ...hydrologie.org/redbooks/a350/P350...

Hydrological Cycle and Water Resources Sustainability in Changing Environments

Edited by Liliang Ren, Wen Wang & Fei Yuan IAHS Publ. 350 (2011) ISBN 978-1-907161-25-4, 772 + xii pp. Price £129.00

The proceedings of the IWRM2010 Methodology in Hydrology symposium held in China, which presents research results describing the hydrological cycle in changing environments and discriminating amongst impacts caused by various factors, the use of quantitative methodology for water resources assessment in a changing environment, and eco-hydrological approaches to water resources sustainability.

Abstracts of the papers in this volume can be seen at:

www.iahs.info

http://www.iahs.info/

Preface

There is hardly a process on Earth where water is not changing in some form or another; life on Earth is a water-processing system. Evidence is growing that human-induced climate and land use/cover changes have a direct influence on processes and elements of the hydrological cycle. Human activities impact water supply and increase water disasters. The International Commission on Water Resources Systems (ICWRS) of IAHS has, for many years, embraced Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) as the main topic of its research agenda. The ICWRS has organized regular symposia on IWRM starting in 2000 at the University of California, Davis, USA1. The second symposium was organized in Stellenbosch, South Africa in 2003. The third and fourth were held at Ruhr-University, Bochum, Germany in 20062, and in Johannesburg, South Africa in 2008, respectively.

This book is the outcome of the 5th International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management and the 3rd International Symposium on Methodology in Hydrology, held at Hohai University in Nanjing, China, on 19–21 November, 2010. ICWRS of IAHS, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, and Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, jointly organized the symposia. The Chinese National Committee for IAHS, International Training and Research Center on Hydrology, Water Resources and Environment, UNESCO, China’s 111 Project initiated by the Ministry of Education and State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs (B08048), and the Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, were the main sponsors of the event. More than 200 participants from the USA, Canada, UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Norway, Japan, Australia, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan, and China, assembled in Nanjing. Prof. Weiya Xu (Vice-President of Hohai University) and Dr Pierre Hubert (former IAHS Secretary General), delivered welcome speeches on behalf of Hohai University and IAHS, respectively. Prof. Gunter Bloschl (ICWRS President of IAHS, Director of the Centre for Water Resources Systems, Vienna University of Technology) sent a letter of congratulation on the opening of the symposium. Prof. Liliang Ren, ICWRS Vice-President of IAHS, the Secretary General of the 5th International Symposium on IWRM, chaired the opening ceremony.

Academician Changming Liu, Academician Hao Wang, Academician Jianyun Zhang (President of Chinese National Committee for IAHS), Prof. E. Sudicky (University of Waterloo), Prof. V. P. Singh (Texas A & M University, Editor-in-Chief ASCE Journal of Hydrologic Engineering), Dr Pierre Hubert, Prof. A. Schumann (Ruhr-Universität Bochum, ICWRS Vice-President), Prof. Nick van de Giesen (Delft University of Technology, ICWRS Secretary), Dr I. Littlewood (Editor-in-Chief Hydrology Research), Prof. N. R. Saelthun (University of Oslo), gave the invited keynote lectures and oral presentations in the Plenary Session in the morning and afternoon of 20 November, respectively. On 21 November, there were nine parallel sessions held in three meeting rooms, including the following themes:

– Hydrological processes in a changing environment

1 Collection of papers published in Integrated Water Resources Management (ed. by M. A. Marino & S. P. Simonovic). IAHS Publ. 272 (2001), IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.

2 Collection of papers published in Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale (ed. by A. Schumann & M. Pahlow). IAHS Publ. 317 (2007). IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.

– Water resources assessment and management– E cohydrological approach to water resources sustainability – Water e nvironment – Subsurface water and groundwater– U ncertainty in hydrologic modeling – H ydrological data mining and data assimilation – H ydrological data retrieval by remote sensing methods – H ydrological modelling supported by multi-source information

The 2-day symposia brought together experts from different disciplines to present research results describing the hydrological cycle in changing environments and discriminating amongst impacts caused by various factors, to exchange experiences with quantitative methodology for water resources assessment in a changing environment, and eco-hydrological approaches to water resources sustainability, so that we can ensure water security in a changing background. During the preparation of the symposia, the secretariat received more than 190 manuscripts. This volume contains a selection of the papers that were presented orally during the symposium in Nanjing. The Academic Committee of the International Symposia reviewed all the submitted papers, and finally accepted 108 papers. This book is dedicated to the 95th anniversary of Hohai University.

The editors would like to thank many people who have helped produce this volume, including the members of the Academic Committee of the Symposia who reviewed all the submitted papers, Mr Qing Liu who kept trace of the manuscripts as they were received. Last but not least, the support of Penny Perrins and Cate Gardner at IAHS Press, Wallingford, is greatly appreciated.

Liliang Ren, Wen Wang & Fei YuanState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering

Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China

Contents

1 Hydrological Processes in a Changing Environment

Spatio-temporal change characteristics of pan evaporation and possible climate factors in the Gongga Mountain under changing environment Yazun Wu, Yun Lin & Gen-Xu Wang

2

A real-time drought monitoring and forecasting system in China Zhiyong Wu, Guihua Lu, Lei Wen & Charles A. Lin

9

Long-term trend of major climate variables in the Taihu basin during the last 53 years Liu Liu, Zongxue Xu & Junxiong Huang

18

Spatiotemporal variation and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin Depeng Zuo, Zongxue Xu, Xingcai Liu & Lei Cheng

28

The impact of land use and land cover changes on runoff in a semi-arid river basin Wei Zhang, Liliang Ren, Xiaoli Yang & Shanhu Jiang

38

Varying effects of climate change and human activity on annual streamflow in different regions of Heihe Basin Songjun Han

45

Influence analysis of meteorological variation trends on potential evaporation Haoyang Li, Qiongfang Li, Xianglin Zou, Meixiu Yu, Cai Tao & Pengcheng Li

53

Analysis of characteristics of precipitation variations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region Pengcheng Li, Qiongfang Li & Xianglin Zou

60

Temporal-spatial scale effect on actual evapotranspiration in a semi-arid basin Fang Yingying, Zhang Youjing & Wang Wenzhong

67

Impacts of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba reservoir cascade on the stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River Meixiu Yu, Guobin Lu, Qiongfang Li & Xianglin Zou

74

Study on shallow groundwater recharge relationship in planted areas in a changing environment Jun’e Zhang, Chuiyu Lu, Dayong Qin, Huaifeng Ge & Rundong Wang

82

Anthropogenic impacts on water quality and water resources of the Pahang River, Malaysia Mohd Shalahuddin Adnan, Yukihiro Shimatani & Zulkafli Abd Rashid

90

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the utilizable precipitation in South Xinjiang during the last 50 years Zhaoxia Ge, Liqing Cao, Yingling Song, Kun Cao & Lijun Wu

98

Effect of climate change on irrigation water requirements of rice in Tianmu Basin with consideration to shortened growth period Shizhang Peng, Jie Wang, Yufeng Luo, Junzeng Xu & Dan Li

104

Research on response models of aquatic ecosystem with hydrological regime changing for Dongjiang River basin Dongwei Chen, Xiaohong Chen, Lan Kong & Jian Du

111

Study on temperature, r ainfall and runoff evolution of Jining city over half a century Heng Yan, Yi Qin & Can Li

116

Trend of precipitation in China and its linkage with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Lintao Li, Zongxue Xu, Dingzhi Peng & Lei Cheng

122

Research on the differences of karst hydrological systems between north and south China in a changing environment Chun-qing Guo, Ying-jie Zhu & Wen-jun Wang

130

http://dict.cnki.net/dict_result.aspx?searchword=%E9%99%8D%E9%9B%A8&tjType=sentence&style=&t=precipitation

Pan evaporation changes and the relationship with meteorological variables in the upper reach of Yangtze River Yanshu Rong, Wen Wang, Zhou Yun & Haiyan Jiang

136

Stream structure and function changes in urbanized plain river network area: case study of Yangtze River delta, China Guanglai Xu, Youpeng Xu & Yixing Yin

143

Effects of the spatial and temporal variability of land use and precipitation on stream quality of Xitiaoxi watershed in eastern China Jintao Xu, Youpeng Xu & Xian Luo

154

Problems of regional water security and possible countermeasures in a rapidly developing region of southern China Tao Yang, Quanxi Shao, Vijay P. Singh & Limin Sun

164

An evaluation model based on TOPMODEL for catchment-scale runoff modelling responses to climate change Yanli Liu, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Jiufu Liu & Ruimin He

171

Predicting runoff changes in the Jiahe River basin associated with future climate change scenarios Fei Yuan, Zhili Yin, Hao Zheng, Yan Zhou, Liliang Ren, Shanshui Yuan, Xing Wei, Zhongbo Yu & Xiaoli Yang

180

2 Water Resources Assessment and Management

Assessment of downscaling evapotranspiration estimates using the Shuttleworth-Wallace model and monthly meteorological data for daily streamflow simulation Xianghu Li, Qi Zhang & Liliang Ren

188

Scale-dependent water use assessment with improved SWAT model in rice-based irrigation system Jianpeng Wang & Yuanlai Cui

194

New method for evaluating safe yield and exploitation potential of shallow groundwater in Huaibei Plain, Anhui Province Yefei Ji, Longcang Shu, Zhenlong Wang Thomas Oromo

205

Modelling capillary rise of crop land under different groundwater level Ting Hou, Yonghua Zhu, Haishen Lü, Liliang Ren, Ping He & Zhenlong Wang

212

Spatial distribution of water consumption and deficit of main crops in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, China Jiajia Sun, Yonghua Zhu, Haishen Lü, Liliang Ren, Jun Wang, Haozhe Gong & Huihui Wang

219

A real time operation model for water rights management Hang Zheng, Zhongjing Wang & Siyi Hu

225

Application of system dynamics approach on water demand prediction in Yingtan city Lu Lu, Zhang Xiuju & Li Xiuping

235

The sustainability evaluation model of irrigation district groundwater resources carrying capacity based on catastrophe theory Xiao Lin, Han Xiao-Jun & Dong Zeng-Chuan

241

Study on long-term forecasting method and its application on Xinjiang River Xiuju Zhang, Xiuping Li & Boming Luo

248

Predicting daily potable water savings by using rainwater tanks at urban scale Hui Xu, Mike Rahilly & Shiroma Maheepala

254

Discussion on international river management by company Hongzhong Pan & Menggui Jin

261

The research on the water environment-carrying capacity on the upstream of Hanjiang basin Yang Zhou & Xiaode Zhou

266

Emergy evaluation of water resources ecological–economics system for its sustainability Ruili Guo, Zening Wu & Hongtao Yu

271

Response of soil moisture under different crop planting to precipitation in Central Hill Region, Sichuan Basin Xunjian Long, Chuan Liang, Chunmin Zhang & Xiejing Zhao

277

Effects of the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Transfer Project on water environment in the middle–downstream of Hanjiang River Ping Xie, Bin Xu & Chan Xiao

283

River basin water resources allocation and sustainable management: key issues and challenges Liying Yang, Xinyi Xu & Hongrui Wang

290

A preliminary study of a framework of water resources regulation technology in China Tianling Qin, Denghua Yan, Xinshan Song, Weihua Xiao, Cheng Zhang & Baisha Weng

297

Status of spate irrigated agricultural systems in Sindh Province, Pakistan Fateh M. Mari & Yameen Memon

307

Drainage scavenger tube wells can sustain rural livelihoods: evidence from Sindh Pakistan Bakhshal Khan Lashari & Shafi Mohammad Kori

316

Impacts of climate change on the availability of water resources and water resources planning Xiang Zhang, Yanfei Chen, Jun Xia & Qingchun Yang

324

A map engine for water resources management Bing Xu & Zhang Ying 330

A tentative research into correlations among stakeholders in river basin ecological restoration compensation Jigan Wang, Weiwei Wang, Jian Xu & Jie Zhang

338

3 Ecohydrological Approach to Water Resources Sustainability

Computation method of instream ecological flow based on physical habitat simulation Jian Li & Ziqiang Xia

349

Analysis of instream ecological flow for the Songhua River, China Lanlan Yu, Ziqiang Xia, Lidan Guo & Zhihua Lu

354

Field observation of water temperature profiles in large reservoirs with different features Lu Baohong, Kang Yuee, Zhang Hanwen, Gu Huanghe, Jiang Shuting, Hui Xiaojuan, Cao Zhen & Yeou-Koung Tung

359

Reservoir ecological operation model considering river environmental flow Wenxian Guo, Hongxiang Wang & Jianxin Xu

369

Irrigation determination for Populus euphratica seedlings using HYDRUS-1D and pot experiments in the arid region, China Yonghua Zhu, Liliang Ren, Haishen Lü, Zhongbo Yu & Yaning Chen

375

Study on regional water resource carrying capacity and sustainability in the Three Gorges reservoir Wen-ming Yan, Ling Liu & Zhongbo Yu

382

Evaluation of ecological instream flow of the Pearl River basin, South China Qiang Zhang, Ying Cui, Yongqin David Chen & Xiaohong Chen

388

River ecosystem construction and conservation study of Wuxie River, China Qicheng Zhang, Lihong Liua, Yiqing Guana & Longcang Shua

397

System dynamics modelling of the water and salt balance of Bosten Lake in northwest China: implications for ecologically sustainable management Caijun Wang, Yufeng Luo, Weiguang Wang & Bin Han

404

Water environmental characteristics analysis at a Chinese sturgeon spawning site downstream of Gezhou Dam Qihui Chen, Jieying Dong, Liang Qi & Yu Yang

410

4 Water Environment

Study on ammonia nitrogen of Chaobaixin River in Tianjin city based on improved SWAT model Huaifeng Ge, Zuhao Zhou, Dayong Qin & Jun’e Zhang

416

Study on the concentration of nutrient in a channel reservoir after impoundment Tiegang Zheng, Huichao Dai, Dingguo Jiang & Jingqiao Mao

424

River water quality assessment based on principal component analysis Guiping Li & Zhongbo Yu 430

Simulating the effects of different control scenarios on the non-point source pollution in the Meilin watershed Xingping Wang, Zhongbo Yu, Yunjun Li, Lili Zhao, Fenghua Gao & Guiping Li

436

Evaluation of agricultural non-point pollution in Baiyangdian Lake Basin using SWAT model Kangning Chen & Geya Bian

443

Study on water quality prediction model of centralized drinking water wellhead Guohua Fang & Fengcun Yu

450

Experimental study on mechanism of the nutrient export in a small watershed Hongwei Liu, Zhongbo Yu, Fei Gao, Xing Chen, Fenghua Gao & Xingping Wang

457

Confined water quality evaluation of drawdown cone in Jining based on improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Yu Chen & Longcang Shu

467

5 Subsurface Water and Groundwater

Analysis on recharge efficiency of injection wells: laboratory and numerical modelling Wei Li, Longcang Shu, Yuqiao Long, Yange Li & Binbin Wang

474

Field evidence and numerical simulation of scale effect of hydraulic conductivity Chengpeng Lu, Longcang Shu, Xunhong Chen & Ying Zhang

481

Study on unsteady saturated–unsaturated flow subjected to variable soil water characteristic curve Peng-Qiang Cao Yue-Zan Tao & Long-Cang Shu

488

Deuterium and oxygen-18 variations in subsurface flow in a soil column experiment Zhongcheng Tan, Baohong Lu, Jian Yin, Shanshan Liang, Yude Zhang & Yingying Sun

496

Parameter optimization approach for the Green-Ampt infiltration model Long Xiang, Li Chen, Zhongbo Yu & Fenghua Gao

501

Simulation of soil water movement and deep drainage from jujube tree orchard in arid areas Shuixian Wang, Xinguang Dong & Yuzhong Ren

506

Analysis on the regulation coefficient of Houzhai underground river system in Guizhou province, southwest China Tingting Ke & Longcang Shu

512

Effect of shallow groundwater on near-surface heat island effect Zhi-Min Fu & Yan Xiang 517

6 Uncertainty in Hydrological Modelling

Strategic treatment of hydrological uncertainty based on comparison of the separated runoff components Kairong Lin, Qiang Zhang, Tao Jiang & Xiaohong Chen

526

Uncertainty analysis of a hydrological model using a multi-criteria likelihood measure within the GLUE method Liru Zhang, Jianyun Zhang, Jiufu Liu, Yiqing Guan, Guoqing Wang, Yonghui He & Sijun Dai

532

Uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL based on the GLUE method using different likelihood function Xi-Liang Yao, Guo-Ru Huang & Kai-Rong Lin

538

Study on a concentration calculation method considering stochastic uncertainty Yingna Sun & Xiaofang Rui

546

Simulation method on integrated risk analysis of flood disaster based on Set Pair Analysis Theory Ji-Qing Li, Yan-Yan Mei, Yong Wang & Chang-Ming Ji

551

Uncertainty analysis of watershed pollution loads: application to Tangxun Lake Wei Li, Junying Chu, Dayong Qin, Xifeng Wang & Hao Wang

557

7 Hydrological Data Mining and Data Assimilation

Application of chaos theory in rainfall process analysis Zehua Li, Zhenchun Hao & Sichun Chen 566

The DCE method, MTSE method and DMTSE method of hydrological series extension Shengli Song, Dong Wang, Jichun Wu, Qingping Zhu & Ling Wang

572

Temperature prediction in the SiB2 model based on EnKF assimilation method Xiaolei Fu, Haishen Lü, Yonghua Zhu, Yangwen Jia & Di Liu

577

Real-time flood forecast using a Support Vector Machine XiaoLi Li, Haishen Lü, Tianqing An, Yangwen Jia & Di Liu

584

Trivariate Gaussian copula and Student t copula in multivariate hydrological drought frequency analysis Song-Bai Son, Ju-Liang Jin & Ji He

592

Application of the new technology HHT to the forecasting of annual average streamflow near the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China Liqing Cao & Zhenshan Lin

597

Frequency distribution of maximum one day and consecutive days rainfall for Mehsana district, north Gujarat, India N. R. Patel & D. T. Shete

603

Flood classification based on Improved Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis Hui Ge, Zhenping Huang, Kelin Liu & Jing Li

610

Study on calculation method for short duration probable maximum precipitation Guofang Li, Xinyi Xiang, Feiwu Ye, Bin Qi & Jiapeng Hua

616

Comparison of the wavelet characters of various noises by discrete wavelet transform Yan-Fang Sang, Dong Wang & Ji-Chun Wu

622

Probabilistic forecasting model for annual runoff based on bootstrap Yuliang Zhou, Ping Zhou, Juliang Jin, Zongzhi Wang, Liang Cheng, Libing Zhang & Li Liu

627

Study of small time-scale rainfall amount distribution: a case study on Xiaheyan Station, the Yellow River Basin Genfa Chen, Rui Ye, Dayong Qin & Hao Wang

633

Urban water demand prediction model based on blind number theory Shuhong Mo, Haini Duan & Bing Shen

639

Reliability of statistical tests for detecting changes in extreme precipitation Kejing Liu & Wen Wang

645

Assimilating surface soil moisture to estimate profile soil water content using EnKF and Hydrus-1D Model Xiaohua Kou & Wen Wang

651

8 Hydrological Data Retrieval by Remote Sensing Methods

Research of the relationship between the water area and water level of Poyang Lake based on remote sensing image Li Ren, Xinyi Xiang & Jianjun Ni

660

Soil moisture estimation using MODIS data over the head water of West Liaohe Basin, China Xiaoli Yang, Liliang Ren, Donglai Jiao & Shanhu Jiang

666

Crop classification using per-field method based on ETM+ image and MODIS EVI time series analysis Ru An, Wei Li, Huilin Wang & Renzong Ruan

674

Assessment of Land Surface Diversions from water balance and remote sensing data Masoud Edraki, Mohsin Hafeez, Josh Sixsmith, Umair Rabbani & Yann Chemin

681

9 Hydrological Modelling Supported by Multi-Source Information

Conceptual hierarchical calibration of the Xinanjiang model Qian Li, Weimin Bao, Bo Zhang & Daqi Kong

690

Hillslope as basic discretized unit: the scale effects on its geometric factors Jintao Liu, Xi Chen & Jichun Wu

698

Parameterization of land surface processes in the Taihu basin Xingcai Liu, Zongxue Xu, Liu Liu & Depeng Zuo

704

Hydrological simulation coupling flood and tide in tidal rivers Xiaoqin Zhang, Weimin Bao, Lin Hu, Bo Zhang & Saifeng Lu

713

Application of the Vertical-mixed Runoff Model and real-time flood correction method in a semi-arid basin Haiying Hu, Weimin Bao & Guoru Huang

720

Study on the calculating method of flood drainage flow in riverside urban areas Jun Liu, Cheng Gao & Fahong Zhang

726

A trial of ensemble flood simulation experiment based upon TIGGE data with a coupled atmosphere–hydrology model Ziyan Zheng, Wanchang Zhang & Jingwen Xü

734

Optimal flood control operation for the Three Gorges and Qingjiang cascade reservoirs Shenglian Guo, Yu Li & Jionghong Chen

743

Application of a bi-directional Muskingum water-stage routing model in Caoejiang River, China Simin Qu, Yanping Cui, Haixiang Ji, Han Liu, Weimin Bao, Peng Shi & Wei Si

749

Spatial variation of soil moisture and its factors in Jilin province during 2005 Baisha Weng, Denghua Yan, Weihua Xiao, Zhixuan Zhao, Cheng Zhang & Tianling Qin

759

Development and application of a scaling model for characterising topographic features in hydrological simulation Jing Xu, Liliang Ren, Fei Yuan & Xiaofan Liu

766

Hydrological Cycle and Water Resources Sustainability in Changing Environments (Proceedings of IWRM2010, Nanjing, China, November 2010). IAHS Publ. 350, 2011, 2-8.

Spatio-temporal change characteristics of pan evaporation and possible climate factors in the Gongga Mountain under changing environment

YAZUN WU1,2, YUN LIN2,3 & GEN-XU WANG3

1School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China [email protected]

2 Institute of Resources & Environment, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454003, China3 Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China

Abstract To grasp the spatio-temporal change characteristics of the amount of pan evaporation and possible climate factors in the Gongga Mountain located at the southeastern fringe of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we performed an analysis over a period of 22 years, from 1988 to 2009, in two different altitude zones (1600 m a.s.l and 3000 m a.s.l), based on the methods of Mann-Kendall non parametric, climatic trend rate and complete correlation coefficient. The result indicated that: (1) there were significant decreasing trends of Epan in the annual changes in two sites. Different decreasing trends of Epan were observed in different altitude sites, the annual decreasing tendency of Epan in GGF (3000 m a.s.l) was significant at the 0.01 significance level and the decreasing rate was 160 mm/10years. However, the decreasing tendency in GGS (1600 m a.s.l) was significant at the 0.05 significance level and the annual decreasing rate was 396 mm/10 years. (2) In GGF, the seasonal decreasing tendencies were significant at the 0.01 significance level except in the autumn, while the decreasing tendencies were significant at the 0.05 significance level in the GGS area. The seasonal variety trends in GGS were different from the GGF. In GGF, the decreasing trend of Epan was largest in the spring and remained more-or-less constant in the autumn. In GGS, the largest decreasing rate was in the winter and the smallest in the summer; (3) Correlation analysis found that the ground temperature, minimum ground temperature, sun duration, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed have the correlation with the Epan. The trends analysis show that the annual range of ground temperature, minimum ground temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity was increased, while sun duration and wind speed decreased. (4) As well as the effect of minimum ground temperature, decreasing in both sunshine duration and wind speed were the main influencing factors leading to the decrease of pan evaporation in both altitude zones based on the methods of regression and complete correlation coefficients analysis. Precipitation factors were also important impact factors on pan evaporation in the GGS area. Key words pan evaporation; trend; Mann-Kendall non parametric; Gongga Mountain


A real-time drought monitoring and forecasting system in China

ZHIYONG WU1,2, GUIHUA LU1, LEI WEN3 & CHARLES A. LIN3,4

4 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China [email protected]

5College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China 6Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre, McGill

University, Montréal, Canada7Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment Canada, Montréal, Canada

mailto:[email protected]

Abstract A Real-time Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System (RDMFS) was developed, tested and implemented in China. The RDMFS uses the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model to simulate daily soil moisture values starting from 1 January 1951, and running continually from the present into the future, with a lead time of up to 35 days. VIC is driven by daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from 624 meteorological stations for reconstructing and monitoring runs up to the present, and by the operational Canadian GEM (Global Environmental Multi-scale) model forecast (0–6 days), the operational 40-number super ensemble forecast of Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC; 7–15 days), and the operational CMC ensemble seasonal forecast (16–35 days) for the forecasting runs. The novel feature of our RDMFS is the use of both gauge and model data to drive VIC for real -time drought forecasting. The simulated soil moisture values together with the 30-year climatology (1971–2000) are used to calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI) as an indicator for measuring the severity of agricultural droughts. The SMAPI is qualitatively compared with two independent drought datasets. The result indicates that the SMAPI compares favourably with these datasets. The RDMFS is currently updated daily. It successfully forecasted the evolution of the severe drought in southwest China starting in autumn 2009. Key words drought; Monitoring and Forecasting System; soil moisture; VIC model; China


Long-term trend of major climate variables in the Taihu basin during the last 53 years

LIU LIU1, ZONGXUE XU1 & JUNXIONG HUANG1,2

1 College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, [email protected]

2 Beijing Hydraulic Research Institute, Beijing 100048, China

Abstract Recently, frequent occurrence of extreme flood events associated with the hydrological cycle accelerated by climate change in the Taihu basin have received significant attention by both local and central governments in China. Detection of the plausible long-term trend for climate variables is the first step to understand the effects of climate change on floods. On the basis of monthly time series of precipitation, mean air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration in the Taihu basin from 1954 to 2006, the spatio-temporal patterns of long-term trend for these climate variables during the past 53 years were detected and analysed by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and departure curve method. The results showed that the mean air temperature increased by 1.43 in the Taihu basin during the past 53 years, and the annual mean precipitation increased by 10.44 mm with more temporal and spatial variability, while the annual mean relative humidity and annual sunshine duration exhibited a decreasing tendency, with 10-year decreasing rates of –0.99% and –7.797 h, respectively. In addition, the Hurst index was adopted to detect the long-range dependence for the time series of these climate variables, which showed that the annual mean precipitation in the Taihu basin would continue to increase in the future, similar to the trend of mean air temperature, whilst the annual mean relative humidity and annual sunshine duration would continue to decrease, being consistent with that for the last 53 years. The results of this study could be used to provide technical support for flood control and drought relief in urban planning and construction under future global climate change in the Taihu basin.Key words climate change; trend; Mann-Kendall; Hurst, Taihu basin


Spatiotemporal variation and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin

DEPENG ZUO, ZONGXUE XU, XINGCAI LIU & LEI CHENGKey Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China zongxuexu @ vip.sina.com

Abstract Potential evapotranspiration is an important component of the hydrological cycle and a key input to hydrological models. Analysis on the spatial distribution and temporal trends of potential evapotranspiration is of great significance for water resources planning and management, important to improve the utilization of agricultural water resources, and helpful to understand the spatiotemporal variation of ecological water requirements, etc. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Wei River is the “Mother River” of Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi Province, China. It plays an important role in the development of West China, the ecosystem health and sustainability of socio-economic development in the Yellow River basin. In this study, the FAO Penman–Monteith method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin based on the daily data at 21 meteorological stations during 1959~2008. Spatial distribution of mean annual and seasonal potential evapotranspiration is analysed with the Spline interpolation method, temporal trend of annual potential evapotranspiration at 21 meteorological stations is detected by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test method, and abrupt change points of annual potential evapotranspiration are detected using the non-parametric Pettitt test method. Results showed that spatial distribution of mean annual potential evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin was characterized with high values in east and north, low values in west and south, decreasing from northeast to southwest and the values varied from 779.1 mm to 1017.6 mm. Mean seasonal potential evapotranspiration was in the order of summer > spring > autumn > winter. In the last 50 years, most parts of the Wei River basin showed a significant increasing trend and middle-downstream region near Xi’an were detected with a significant decreasing trend. Two higher potential evapotranspiration periods and a low value period were detected in the basin. The variations of seasonal values were basically consistent with annual values. In addition, summer and spring contributed mostly to annual values. Abrupt changes of annual potential evapotranspiration were detected in 13 stations at the significant level of 0.05, 15 stations showed obvious increasing abrupt in 1993 and 1994, while 4 stations showed obvious decreasing abrupt in 1978 and 1979. Key words potential evapotranspiration; Penman-Monteith method; Mann-Kendall method; Pettitt method; spatial-temporal variation; Wei River


The impact of land use and land cover changes on runoff in a semi-arid river basin

WEI ZHANG1,2, LILIANG REN1, XIAOLI YANG1 & SHANHU JIANG1

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, [email protected]

2 The Hydrology and Water Resource Survey Bureau of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010010, China

Abstract Land use is a key factor controlling the hydrological behaviour of catchments. To have an efficient water management in the basin, it is useful to examine how land use and land cover changes (LUCC) would affect various hydrological processes. This paper aims to assess the effects of such changes on the runoff in the Laohahe basin, the head-water tributary of West Liaohe. The land use and land cover changes were significant in the Laohahe basin over the period 1980–2000. Precipitation and runoff data from 1977 to 2008 in the basin were analysed by using time series contrasting method for assessing characteristics and variation tendency of annual runoff. The results suggest an insignificant decline in runoff. Through the VIC-3L model for the periods prior to and after abrupt runoff changes, human activity, rather than climatic change, is identified as the main driving factor for runoff decline in Laohahe basin.Key words land use and land cover changes; runoff; statistics analysis; VIC-3L model; Laohahe basin


Varying effects of climate change and human activity on annual streamflow in different regions of Heihe Basin

SONGJUN HAN1,2

8Department of Irrigation and Drainage, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, Chinah [email protected]

9National Center of Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research, Beijing 100048, China

Abstract Changes in annual streamflow from 1958 to 2000 were investigated over the east and west sub-catchments of the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, to evaluate the effects of climate change and human activity on annual streamflow. The west sub-catchments had decreasing trends in annual streamflow, whereas the east sub-catchments had increasing trends. All three meteorological stations in Heihe Basin had increasing trends in annual mean temperature and precipitation; however, the station in the west sub-catchment had significant increasing trends in potential evaporation, whereas the two stations in the east sub-catchments had no significant trends in potential evaporation. The Budyko framework was used to evaluate the impacts of land use changes and climate variabilities on annual streamflow, with the Taolai catchment and Heihe Basin’s mainstream sub-catchment chosen to represent rivers in the western and eastern sub-catchments, respectively. The variation in streamflow of the Heihe mainstream sub-catchment is a result of natural variation; however, the variation in streamflow was obviously influenced by human activities in the Taolai sub-catchment. The effects of climate changes on annual streamflow also vary. The increase in annual streamflow in the eastern catchments was mainly due to increased precipitation, whereas the decrease in annual streamflow in the western catchments was due to more significant increased potential evaporation.Key words climate change; human activity; Budyko hypothesis; annual streamflow; evaporation


Influence analysis of meteorological variation trends on potential evaporation

HAOYANG LI1,2, QIONGFANG LI1,2, XIANGLIN ZOU3, MEIXIU YU1,2, CAI TAO1,2 & PENGCHENG LI1,2

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China3Changjiang Engineering Vocational College, Wuhan 430012, China

Abstract Evaporation, an important component of the water cycle, is a critical variable in the determination of local water resources available. This paper selected two meteorological stations at Beijing and Tianjin as case study sites. Based on the time series of daily meteorological data from 1958 to 2008, the potential evaporation is calculated by the Penman formula, and the variations of meteorological variables (air temperature, sunshine hour, relative humidity, wind speed) were investigated. The results revealed that: (1) the annual potential evaporation at Beijing showed an increasing trend, while that in Tianjin showed a decreasing trend, and that the air temperature at the two stations both increased significantly; (2) sunshine hours, relative humidity and wind speed presented a decreasing trend at the two stations; and (3) relative humidity and wind speed are the key factors affecting the potential evaporation at Beijing and Tianjin, respectively. The results of this paper provide a valuable reference for the forecast of future water resource availability, and the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in the arid and semi-arid region. Key words potential evaporation; meteorological variables; variation trend; correlation analysis; Beijing; Tianjin


(Proceedings of IWRM2010, Nanjing, China, November 2010). IAHS Publ. 350, 2011, 60-66.

Analysis of characteristics of precipitation variations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region

PENGCHENG LI1,2, QIONGFANG LI1,2 & XIANGLIN ZOU3 1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,

China 2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

[email protected] Changjiang Engineering Vocational College, Wuhan 430012, China

Abstract Water resources supply and demand conflicts in arid and semi-arid regions are seriously increasing in recent decades. Based on the time series of daily precipitation from 1958 to 2008 at Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan meteorological stations, the Mann-Kendall test and wavelets analysis were selected to analyse the annual and seasonal precipitation. The results revealed that the annual and wet seasonal (June–September) precipitation showed a decreasing trend, while the precipitation in the dry season (October–May) showed an increasing trend in the past 51 years; The monthly distributions of decadal precipitation became more even with time. A significant yearly cycle was found at Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan with periods of 26, 13 and 16 years, respectively. The results of the paper could provide references for the mid–long hydrological forecasting and water resources planning in these three regions.Key words precipitation; trend; Mann-Kendall test; wavelet analysis; Beijing; Tianjin; Tangshan


Temporal-spatial scale effect on actual evapotranspiration in a semi-arid basin

FANG YINGYING1, ZHANG YOUJING1,2 & WANG WENZHONG3 1 Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, China

moqifeixu 25 @ 163. com 2 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098,

China3 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research

Institute, Nanjing 210029, China

Abstract This paper developed an approach of the accuracy assessment in multi temporal-spatial scales. The SEBAL model and Thornthwaite water balance model were employed to calculate the daily ETa on three spatial scales. Then, three time scales ETa were expanded. Of them, the units were delineated by hydrological response unit (HRU). The calculating results of two models were compared on different scales. The results were that with the increase of temporal scale, the slopes of regression curves between unit results from two methods were 0.555, 0.667 and 0.813, with related coefficients of 0.714, 0.809 and 0.762. The ET difference decreased with the increase of spatial scale. On a monthly scale, the average of relative errors was over 30% at point scale, 10.3% and 1.59% at unit and basin scale, with RMSE of 8.32%, 9.51% and 0.43%. The better accuracy could be achieved at the larger scales because of the uncertainty decreasing. Experimental results indicated that temporal uncertainty is a key issue which needs further study, and the remote sensing method at the unit scale is beneficial to the water resources assessment and ET management in a changing regional environment. Key words evapotranspiration; temporal scale; spatial scale; SEBAL model; Thornthwaite water balance model; heterogeneity; uncertainty




Impacts of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba reservoir cascade on the stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River

MEIXIU YU1,2, GUOBIN LU1,2, QIONGFANG LI1,2 & XIANGLIN ZOU3

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China3 Changjiang Engineering Vocational College, Wuhan 430012, China

Abstract The Yangtze River (Changjiang) is the third largest river in the world, and the alterations in its hydrological regime have global-scale impacts. However, with population increase and economic growth, the stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River has been altered to some extent by human activities, particularly dam construction. The alteration in the stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River will unavoidably influence its biological processes. To assess dam-induced alterations in the stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River quantitatively, the Gezhouba reservoir and the Three Gorges reservoir have been selected as case study sites. On the basis of stream temperature time series, the changes of annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily stream temperature regimes in different sub-periods were investigated and the driving forces were explored. The output of the paper could provide references for the assessment of impacts of dam construction on the health and stability of the Yangtze River ecosystem.Key words Yangtze River; Gezhouba reservoir; Three Gorges reservoir; stream temperature regime; hydrological alterations


Study on shallow groundwater recharge relationship in planted areas in a changing environment

JUN’E ZHANG1, CHUIYU LU1, DAYONG QIN1, HUAIFENG GE1 & RUNDONG WANG2

1 Department of Water Resources in China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, [email protected]

2 Resources and Environment Department, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, China

Abstract With the development of society, the ability of human activities to change nature has increased, resulting in tremendous changes in land surface conditions. Groundwater resource is an important source of economic and social development on the plain area, and significant changes in its recharging conditions and the cycle characteristics have also taken place with human activity and the underlying change. In this paper, the basis of the local data, including daily series data of hydrological and meteorological information, some space data, such as remote sensing map, DEM (90 m), the digital channel system map, the land use type map, the soil map, etc., and water usage every year from 2001 to 2004, shallow groundwater recharge relationship on plant area in a changing environment has been researched with a distributed hydrology model - MODCYCLE model, which is based on the dual water cycle theory and developed recently by the Department of Water Resources in China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR) in view of areas of intense human activity, especially in a complex agricultural system. First of all, the model was calibrated and verified by the water table from 1 January 2001 to 26 December 2004 of 13 observation wells, and then according to the simulation results, analysed the annual variation of precipitation and irrigation recharge amount on the study area. It is found that the annual amount of the water that percolates passed the root zone has a close relationship with the annual summation amount of precipitation and irrigation. The higher the annual summation amount of precipitation, the higher the annual amount of the percolated water, conversely, the lower the amount of

water that percolates passed the root zone. In one year the amount of percolated water is centred largely from July to December, and the trend is that the recharge amount becomes more from January to October, and then becomes less from October to December, and is highest in October. The monthly changing trend of the water that percolates passed the root zone does not go all the way with the monthly changing trend of the sum of precipitation and irrigation, but it shows the hysteretic phenomena. Besides precipitation and irrigation, the percolated water recharge is also mainly related with unsaturated zone thickness, lithology, land use, crop varieties, agronomic and irrigation system.Key words shallow groundwater; recharge; plant area; changing environment; MODCYCLE model


Anthropogenic impacts on water quality and water resources of the Pahang River, Malaysia

MOHD SHALAHUDDIN ADNAN1, YUKIHIRO SHIMATANI2 & ZULKAFLI ABD RASHID3

1Urban and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan

[email protected] 2Urban and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan3Freshwater Fisheries Research Centre, Glemi, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

Abstract River water quality in the Pahang River and its adjacent tributaries is facing degradation due to increasing anthropogenic activities along the river bank. This study was initiated with the aim of investigating the effects of human activities and its impacts on water quality and water quantity. The spatial and temporal changes, as well as the human activities along this river are determined by analysing and calculating the water quality Index (WQI) and applying statistical approaches: principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA), to explore the relationship between anthropogenic activities and environmental variables. From the results obtained, it was seen that the WQI was highly correlated with the activities along the river bank. Human disturbance has severely degraded the water quality and ecosystem integrity, thereby depleting water resources. In addition, we speculate the significant decreasing trend between upstream and downstream of the Pahang River. Thus, serious mitigation steps should be proposed to protect our valuable resources. Key words water quality index (WQI); Pahang River; cluster analysis; principal component analysis


Evaluating the impact of climate change on the utilizable precipitation in South Xinjiang during the last 50 years

ZHAOXIA GE1,2, LIQING CAO1,2, YINGLING SONG1,2, KUN CAO1,2 & LIJUN WU1,2

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Chinazxge @ hhu.edu .cn

Abstract Calculation of annual average evaporation and utilizable precipitation in South Xinjiang is carried out based on the precipitation and temperature monthly data for the period 1951–2006. Having analysed the change characteristics of precipitation, air temperature, evaporation, and utilizable precipitation in South Xinjiang during the last 50 years in detail, the changes in precipitation, air temperature and utilizable


precipitation were simulated using the stepwise regressive periodic analytic method. Then these key climate variables were forecasted for the next 5 years. The results show that the temperature, precipitation and evaporation in South Xinjiang basically undergo an upward increasing trend since the 1970s. However, the change in utilizable precipitation displays a wave-like characteristic. It is concluded that climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in utilizable precipitation. Moreover, the forecasted utilizable precipitation for the next 5 years would possibly decrease. This study provides useful information and reference for decision-making on climate change mitigation.Key words Xinjiang; climate change and utilizable precipitation; stepwise regressive periodic analytic method; forecast of utilizable precipitation


Effect of climate change on irrigation water requirements of rice in Tianmu Basin with consideration to shortened growth period

SHIZHANG PENG1, JIE WANG1, YUFENG LUO1, JUNZENG XU1 & DAN LI2


2 Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Changzhou, Jiangsu 21330, China

Abstract Considering the shortened growth period of rice due to global warming, we calculated irrigation water requirements of rice in Tianmu Basin during 1954–2008 using the FAO-56 Penman-Moniteth method, and its long-term trend was detected through the Mann-Kendall test. After analysis of trends in meteorological parameters, the impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements were investigated. The results showed that, due to highly remarkable decreased average wind speed and sunshine hours, there was a slightly decreasing trend in the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0); while a decreasing trend was detected in precipitation, which brought about an increasing trend in the irrigation water requirements. Overall, besides the alarming rise in industrial and domestic water requirements, climate change contributed to the lack of sufficient water for agriculture in China during the past decades, which will have significant implications for adaptation strategies for climate change and policies for water management.Key words rice; climate change; irrigation water requirements; shortened growth period


Research on response models of aquatic ecosystem with hydrological regime changing for Dongjiang River basin

DONGWEI CHEN, XIAOHONG CHEN, LAN KONG & JIAN DUCenter for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, Guangzhou 510275, [email protected]

Abstract Under the influence of climate change and human activities, the hydrological regime of the river has changed tremendously. This paper reviews the research status in the world on application of hydrological hydrodynamic models, applies ecological hydrology methods to simulating the response to the aquatic ecosystem with the change of river hydrological regime, and constructs the response models of the aquatic ecosystem of the river hydrological regime. With the use of the RAV method, it is shown that about 55.6% of the hydrological regime of Boluo hydrological station in Dongjiang River has changed because of the development of cascade reservoirs of Dongjiang River basin. Key words hydrological regime; aquatic ecosystem; ecological model



Study on temperature, r ainfall and runoff evolution of Jining city over half a century

HENG YAN1, YI QIN1 & CAN LI2

1Key Laboratory of Northwest Water Resources and Eco-environment of the Ministry of Education, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710048, [email protected]

2Shandong Survey and Design of Water Conservancy, Jinan, Shandong 250013, China

Abstract Jining City is famous for being the birthplace of Confucian culture and for being rich in mineral resources. However, the amount of water available per person here is less than one-quarter of the average national level. Combining with mathematical statistical theory, the evolution of temperature, rainfall and runoff over half a century are analysed. The following conclusions are obtained: (1) the feature of annual average temperature change in Jining City corresponds to temperature evolution rules of north China; (2) although the temperature is increasing, the rainfall trend has not changed significantly, and there is a phase difference between rainfall change and temperature change; and (3) the relationship between rainfall and runoff is seriously affected by more and more human activities in water affairs and land use. Key words annual mean temperature; annual rainfall; annual mean measured runoff; evolution; Jining City; Si River


Trend of precipitation in China and its linkage with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

LINTAO LI, ZONGXUE XU, DINGZHI PENG & LEI CHENGKey Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, [email protected]

Abstract Plausible long-term trend of precipitation in China is detected by using Mann-Kendall test. The results show that the precipitation mainly increased in the western part of China and mainly decreased in the eastern part of China during the past five decades. The teleconnection between precipitation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by using the Student’s t-test and 62 stations were found to show a significant difference in precipitation between El Niño and La Niña episodes. Most of these stations are concentrated in the Yellow River basin and Shandong Province. It indicates that the impact of ENSO on precipitation in these regions is greater than that in other regions of China. Average precipitation during El Niño and La Niña episodes, and the entire periods are compared. The results show that La Niña generally coincides with wetter years and El Niño coincides with drier (wetter) years north (south) of the Yangtze River.Key words precipitation; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Mann-Kendall test; Student’s t-test



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Research on the differences of karst hydrological systems between north and south China in a changing environment

CHUN-QING GUO1, YING-JIE ZHU2 & WEN-JUN WANG1

1Guilin University of Technology College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Guangxi Guilin 541004, [email protected]

2Guangxi Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Guangxi Nanning 530023, China

Abstract The calcium-rich and discontinuous lithosphere has a very close relationship with the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere in Chinese karst regions, resulting in the appearance of a multi-level surface-underground double layer structure, where water, soil, rock and life are as one, producing a series of special environmental geological problems, such as soil erosion, drought, desertification, water depletion, land subsidence and collapse, mine flooding, etc. For example, a series of karst hydrological and ecological problems, caused by basic geological structure of karst areas in north China (Shanxi karst plateau) where coal is in the upper layer, and water is in the lower layer, coal and water are together and in one of the karst regions in south China (Yunnan-Guizhou karst Plateau) the soil is in the upper layer, and water is in the lower layer. Soil and water are separate and will be an important part of Chinese karst hydrology in the 21st century. This paper focuses on discussing the differences in karst area and water resources characteristics of karst hydrological systems between north and south China: (a) in south China karst regions, karst water supply capacity is large and dynamic changes are dramatic. In particular, in the mountain regions, water leaks rapidly into the underground so that a considerable part of karst water resources can not be used. Developing vegetation, constructing reservoirs in appropriate places, blocking the main channel of groundwater flow, and controlling karst caves, are used to improve the utilization rate of karst water resources. (b) in karst regions of north China, in the exposing, semi-exposing and karst water recharging regions, increase vegetation cover area and construct reservoirs to reduce evaporation and increase recharge; in coverage and karst water supply regions, lower mud and sediment yield of river to effectively control the balance of aquatic species; in burial regions, focus on considering the relationship between karst water and overlying other types of water resources. Key words karst hydrology; karst hydrological system; double layer structure; China


Pan evaporation changes and the relationship with meteorological variables in the upper reach of Yangtze River

YANSHU RONG1, WEN WANG2, ZHOU YUN1 & HAIYAN JIANG1

10 College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

11 State Key Lab of Hydrology-Water Resources & Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract The upper reach of Yangtzi River, 4511-km long from west to east (24–36ºN, 90–112ºE), covers eight provinces and municipalites in China. Long-term changes in evaporation can have profound implications for hydrologic processes and climate change, while climate changes in this reach have a great impact on water resources, ecosystem and environment. Characteristics of pan evaporation, changes of meteorological variables, and effects of meteorological variables on pan evaporation in the reach, were investigated by means of daily pan evaporation at 66 stations and other meteorological variables measured at 90 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2008. The results showed that both pan evaporation and meteorological variables not only have a decreasing trend, but also have an increasing trend during recent years over the upper reach of the Yangtzi River, and these increasing or decreasing trends were not symmetrical between regions and seasons. The likely causative meteorological variables for such changes were identified. The decrease of pan evaporation in some southern stations of the research region were most strongly associated with increased air pressure (PA), increased relative humidity (RH) and decreased sunshine duration (SD), while the increase of pan evaporation seemed due largely to air temperature (TA) increasing, air pressure (PA) decreasing and relative humidity (RH) decreasing.


Key words pan evaporation; meteorological variable; linear trend; Yangtzi River


Stream structure and function changes in urbanized plain river network area: case study of Yangtze River delta, China

GUANGLAI XU1, YOUPENG XU1 & YIXING YIN2

1 School of Geographic and Oceanic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, Chinaguanglaixu @ yahoo.com.cn

2 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Abstract Urbanization within a watershed increases the area of impervious surfaces, which decreases infiltration of precipitation and increases runoff. Together with the land-use change and hydraulic engineering around rivers induced by urbanization, the natural structure of the stream network is acutely changed. With a case study of the Yangtze River delta of China — HJH watershed, which has undergone rapid urban development over the past decade, firstly, we assess the land-use changes in three periods, which vary from 1991, 2001 to 2006. Based on the result of remote sensing images supervised classifying, the impervious surface increases continuously, to 1280 km2 (approx. 376%) in these 15 years; while the water/lake area decreases by 328 km2 (approx. 52%). Then with the MNDWI methods to extract the vector river network, we analyse the number and length changes of different levels and the stream network structure changes. The number and length of lower class rivers declined in 1991–2006, while decline in higher class rivers was not seen. There is a decreasing trend in the branch ratio and length ratio of the stream network, and the branch ratio and length ratio are in the range of Horton’s law in statistics. But with the smaller length ratio, the fractal dimension value is beyond the threshold. Finally, with the Mann-Kendall trend test, based on the meteorological and hydrological observation data, we analysed the precipitation and water level change in 1960–2007. During these 48 years, there was a weak increasing trend of precipitation, which does not reach a significant level. There is also an increasing trend of observed water level, which reaches a significant level from 1993 to 2007. It is mainly because of the impervious surface and stream network changes. We believe that the water/lake area rate and the number and length of the low level rivers are the key to maintain a stream network structure and flood control.Key words impervious surface; land use change; stream network; Horton ratio; water level; urbanization


Effects of the spatial and temporal variability of land use and precipitation on stream quality of Xitiaoxi watershed in eastern China

JINTAO XU, YOUPENG XU & XIAN LUOSchool of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, [email protected]

Abstract This paper presents the findings of a study which has investigated the effects of land use and precipitation space-time variability upon the stream quality in Xitiaoxi watershed, located in the southwest of Taihu basin, China. A variety of hydrological variables and water quality parameters were monitored at some gauging stations and other selected control sections in the past several decades. Significant changes have taken place in the underlying surface since 2002 as a result of intensive human activities. The precipitation data of 2002 and 2008 represent two entirely different monthly distribution patterns. The land use and precipitation data of 2002 and 2008 are used to explore the variability of stream quality. Based on this, the effects of the spatial distribution of land use and precipitation on the stream quality are discussed by

geospatial analysis in the ArcGIS and ArcSWAT model. The spatial variability of the data used in this study includes six land use types (Arable land, orchard, forest, build-up land, water body and bare land) and precipitation data from 17 rainfall gauging stations. With the 20 sections as outlets, the watershed was divided into 20 subwatersheds in ArcSWAT. The contaminant concentrations including COD, BOD, DO, NH4-N, TN and TP of the 12 times sampling at each of the 20 monitoring sections were analysed by comparison. The land use structure and change of each subwatershed, together with the spatial variability and monthly precipitation distribution, is considered. The results show that: (1) the land use structure and spatial variability of precipitation in each subwatershed are the main causes of the spatial variation of stream quality; (2) the monthly precipitation distribution pattern is the main cause of temporal variation of stream quality. This paper probes into the comprehensive effects of the spatial and temporal variability of land use and precipitation by quantitative methodology. The results obtained from this study provide support for water resources manage-ment and water environment protection under the rapid urbanization background. They also provide insights on the relevance of water resources sustainability and harmonious coexistence between man and nature.Key words effects; land use and precipitation; spatial and temporal variability; stream quality; Xitiaoxi


Problems of regional water security and possible countermeasures in a rapidly developing region of southern China

TAO YANG1, QUANXI SHAO2, VIJAY P. SINGH3 & LIMIN SUN1

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

2CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, Private Bag 5, Wembley, Western Australia 6913, Australia3Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas

A&M University, Texas, USA

Abstract The Pearl River Delta region (PRD), characterized by a continually growing population and the fastest pace of development in China, is currently confronting an increasing number of serious issues regarding water security, e.g. floods, droughts, water pollution, and saltwater intrusion. These problems have a variety of negative impacts on human society and the surrounding environment, e.g. mortality of humans and animals, property damage, eco-environment degradation, and health deterioration. The objective of this paper is to: (1) summarize the basic characteristics of water supply systems in PRD in terms of its geographical, climatic, hydrological and socio-economic conditions; (2) evaluate the sustainability of water supply system in 4 major cities in PRD from a regional perspective; (3) address and discuss the severities of water pollution and saltwater intrusion by reviewing the existing research findings; and (4) propose possible countermeasures to sustainable development strategies of water resources under the new challenges of the intensified human activities in this unique aquatic environment in China. Key words water security problems; environment; climate change; human activity; countermeasure; Pearl River Delta


An evaluation model based on TOPMODEL for catchment-scale runoff modelling responses to climate change

YANLI LIU1,2, JIANYUN ZHANG1,2, GUOQING WANG1,2, JIUFU LIU1,2 & RUIMIN HE1,2

1 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China [email protected]

2 Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, Nanjing 210029, China

Abstract In the process of evaluation of climate change impacts, mainly driven by climate scenario assumption and simulation in future, the hydrological model is explored as an estimation tool on water resources and hydrologic situation. Based on the worldwide used hydrological model—TOPMODEL, a climate change evaluation model is presented. It was applied to Xixian catchment of Huaihe River upstream. The baseline period (March 1961–February 1991) of daily data were addressed and the model was calibrated. The results show the model could be employed as climate change estimation reasonably and reliably on a large scale. Three global emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and three GCMs (CSRIO, NCAR and MPI), seven simulations in total were addressed in this study, and the dominant two factors of rainfall and temperature changes were assessed. Thus the annual and monthly runoff responses to climate change were simulated and uncertainty was analysed in an ensemble manner. The results show the dominant trend is slightly increasing in runoff of Xixian catchment in the future climate (March 2021–February 2051). But it indicates a non-direct proportion linear relationship between more moisture warming weather and more runoff, and non-uniform distribution in seasons. Key words TOPMODEL; evaluation model; climate change impacts; GLUE; Delta change method


Predicting runoff changes in the Jiahe River basin associated with future climate change scenarios

FEI YUAN1,2, ZHILI YIN1, HAO ZHENG1, YAN ZHOU3, LILIANG REN1, SHANSHUI YUAN1, XING WEI1, ZHONGBO YU1 & XIAOLI YANG1

12 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, no. 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 20098, [email protected]

13 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China14 Jiangsu Province Hydrology & Water Resources Survey Bureau, Nanjing 210000, China

Abstract Climate change scenarios, predicted through three GCMs, were adopted to drive the Noah land-surface model (Noah LSM) to perform hydrologic simulations at a spatial resolution of 50 × 50 km2 in the Jiahe River basin in China. Four types of climate scenarios were considered in this study: baseline (1961–1990), and future climate A1B, A2 and B1 (2001–2060) that are the storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). All GCMs predict that the mean annual air temperature would be in a remarkable increase under all future climate scenarios. Both CSIRO and MPI GCMs generally simulate a decrease in future mean annual precipitation, while the NCAR GCM-simulated mean annual precipitation would increase remarkably in the future. The hydrological simulation through Noah LSM predicts that the mean annual runoff depths would decrease by 6.4–9.6% in A1B scenario, with the MPI GCM-simulated decreasing precipitation as the forcings. Driven by the NCAR-simulated meteorology, Noah LSM simulates that the mean annual runoff would increase by 6.8–19.7% in all future scenarios. However, despite a decrease in the CSIRO GCM-simulated precipitation, the mean annual runoff is likely to rise dramatically under all future climate scenarios, especially B1 2020s and 2050s, with runoff increase up to 173.2 and 175.5%, respectively. This phenomenon can be attributed to the fact that future local weather would have more no-precipitation days with less light and moderate rain events but more heavy and extreme heavy rain storms. Key words land-surface model; climate change; runoff


Assessment of downscaling evapotranspiration estimates using the Shuttleworth-Wallace model and monthly meteorological

data for daily streamflow simulation

XIANGHU LI1, QI ZHANG1 & LILIANG REN2

1State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, [email protected]

2State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of ecosystem water balance and is one of the key inputs for hydrological modelling, yet is difficult to measure or predict. Many ET models have been developed and validated, however, the continuous short time-step meteorological data are difficult to collect. An attractive solution to the problem of data scarcity at the daily time step is using mean monthly meteorological data to compute the monthly ET, and then, downscale monthly ET to satisfy the daily hydrological process simulations. In this paper, the ET, estimated using the Shuttleworth-Wallace model and monthly meteorological data, are downscaled to daily sequences to feed the improved AFFDEF model for daily streamflow simulation. The results show that the seasonal change of the downscaled daily ET sequences has the same tendency and extent as the observed data, and the mean values and standard deviations are close to, in some months even equal to, the observed data. The simulated streamflow hydrographs, except for flood peak periods, match well with the observed ones; the average Nash coefficient is 82.21%, the DE coefficient is –1.15% and 0.912 for the correlation coefficient. The downscaled daily ET from the monthly ET can not only reflect the time variation characteristic of actual daily ET, but also satisfy the need of regional rainfall–runoff process simulation, and is a new approach for solving the problem of scarce daily data in hydrological processes simulation.Key words evapotranspiration; timescale; downscaling method; distributed hydrological model


Scale-dependent water use assessment with improved SWAT model in rice-based irrigation system

JIANPENG WANG1,2 & YUANLAI CUI1

1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, [email protected]

2 Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China

Abstract Water cycle under two different irrigation methods, alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and continuous flooding (CF), were simulated in Yangshudang small watershed, Zhanghe Irrigation System, China. The study area was divided into five scales according to single or nested sub-basins along the main channel from upstream to downstream. Then water accounting methodology was used to analyse the variation of water accounting indicators and how irrigation method influenced them on different scales. The results indicate that ET of rice are almost equal under two irrigation methods, but 20% water evaporation decrease, runoff and seepage also decrease under AWD, which suggests that rainfall use efficiency can be promoted without reducing rice yield. Depleted fractions of gross inflow (DFgross) and available water (DFavailable) mainly show a trend of decrease at first and then increase with increasing scales. Process fractions of gross inflow (PFgross) and available water (PFavailable) decrease substantially first and then increase slowly; when the scales reach about 3500 ha they decrease slowly again. Process fraction of depleted water (PFdepleted) has the same decrease trend at first, but then decreases slowly with increasing of scales. Water productivity of ET (WPET) has a tiny variation with scales change, but water productivity of gross inflow (WPgross) decreases substantially at first and increases slowly until scale reaches about 3500 ha, then back to decrease slowly again. Water accounting indicators under AWD are higher than those under CF generally, because gross water is reduced since sub-surface inflow reduced under AWD. But there is still no remarkable difference on WPET and PFdepleted between AWD and CF, because ET of rice has no significant difference in general.Key words water accounting indicators; water accounting methodology; improved SWAT; rice-based irrigation system; Zhanghe Irrigation System

http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/abstract/abstract61.shtml#%23



New method for evaluating safe yield and exploitation potential of shallow groundwater in Huaibei Plain, Anhui Province

YEFEI JI1, LONGCANG SHU1, ZHENLONG WANG2 THOMAS OROMO1

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, [email protected]

2 Anhui and Huai River Water Resources Research Institute, Bengbu, Anhui 233000, China

Abstract There are two disadvantages in the traditional long-term regulation model; it does not take into consideration: (a) the impact of the shape of cone of depression during the pumping period; (b) the well density. Based on these two disadvantages, some modifications were carried out on the traditional long-term regulation model. For the first disadvantage, the concept of critical safe depth of water table was given; while on the second disadvantage, the concept of well density coefficient was given. Combining these two modifications, a new calculation method of safe yield was given. The first modification made the traditional model have the connotation of groundwater dynamics, the second modification made the model closer to actual. Based on the new method for calculating the safe yield and its exploitation potential, Anhui Huaibei Plain was chosen as a study area. The result of the safe yield calculated by the modified model was more reasonable and safe, compared with the allowable withdrawal calculated by the traditional long-term regulation model.Key words safe yield; exploitation potential; shallow groundwater; Anhui Huaibei Plain


Modelling capillary rise of crop land under different groundwater level

TING HOU1, YONGHUA ZHU1, HAISHEN LÜ1, LILIANG REN1, PING HE1 & ZHENLONG WANG2

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, [email protected]

2 Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huai River Conservancy, Bengbu 233000, China

Abstract Huaibei Plain is located in the northern subtropical and warm temperate zone with semi-humid monsoon climate. In this area, the water table depth generally varies between 1.5 and 3.5 m. The changes of water table will lead to changes in capillary rise, thereby affecting plant growth. In this paper, soybean, a representative crop of Huaibei Plain, was used for the study. Based on the meteorological data of Bengbu station and the soil moisture data of Wudaogou eco-hydrological experimental station, a modified transient state analytical model (TSAM) was used to simulate capillary rise of crop land under a different water table. The capillary rise to soybean during its growth period in 2005 was 109.75 mm. During the periods of 10 June to 4 July, 15–21 August and 19–25 September, capillary rise was obvious. With the change of water table depth, there are two peaks in the whole growth period. Key words capillary rise; Huaibei Plain; modified transient state analytical model; Penman-Monteith equation




Spatial distribution of water consumption and deficit of main crops in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, China

JIAJIA SUN1,2, YONGHUA ZHU1,2, HAISHEN LÜ1,2, LILIANG REN1,2, JUN WANG2, HAOZHE GONG1,2 & HUIHUI WANG1,2


2 College of Hydrology-Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract This paper focuses on five main crops in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Inner Mongolia): rice paddy (Oryza), wheat (Triticum aestivum), maize (Zea mays), millet (Setaria italica), and soybean (Glycine max). Water consumptions and deficits of five main crops in 2008 were analysed. By combining the effects of precipitation the results reflect that: (1) paddy should be cultivated mainly in southeastern areas of Inner Mongolia, and its total planting area should be properly reduced; (2) wheat is suitable to be cultivated in middle of Hulunbeier, Xingan League, Tongliao, Chifeng, east of Xilinguole League and Huhhot; (3) maize should be cultivated east of Hulunbeier; (4) millet should be cultivated in large areas in the west of Xilinguole League, north of Wulanchabu, Bayannaoer, Wuhai and Alashan League; and (5) soybean is adaptable to cultivation in the whole region, but Baotou and Erdos would be the priority. Key words Inner Mongolia; crops; water consumption; water deficit; precipitation; spatial distribution


A real time operation model for water rights management

HANG ZHENG, ZHONGJING WANG & SIYI HUState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghu University, Beijing 100084, [email protected]

Abstract Water rights allocation in a river basin is customarily determined based on long-term mean water resources; however, real-time variability of water availability caused by hydrological uncertainty should also be considered in order to keep an effective and flexible allocation policy. This paper summarizes a framework of the real-time water rights operation and proposed a modified rule for water reallocation real-timely based on the common rule used in China. Applying the framework and the models in the Shiyang River basin, it indicates that the annual water rights allocated by the modified rule is more stable for the social-economic water use, and leads to a more acceptable water supply, which would provide an effective method for the water rights sustainable operation in the Shiyang River basin, and likewise present a useful reference for water resources management in the water deficient regions of China.Key words water rights; real-time; allocation; operation


Application of system dynamics approach on water demand prediction in Yingtan city

LU LU, ZHANG XIUJU & LI XIUPINGState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

Abstract Water demand prediction is a multi-factor, multi-level and nonlinear system issue, influenced by population, development level of social economy, industrial structures, etc. Normal measure adopted by the traditional prediction approaches is to simplify the multi-factor, and make the nonlinear systems to linear ones. This decreased the prediction accuracy. The system dynamics (SD) approach can deal with the issues both in qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, considering the interrelations and interactions among different elements in the complex social, economic and ecological system. This paper applies the SD approach to the water demand prediction of Yingtan city to set up an SD water demand model. The water demand predicted results show that the model can describe the close relations of water demand and the development of social economy. It is shown that the SD approach can solve the nonlinear problems of water demand prediction, and improve the prediction accuracy.Key words system dynamics approach; water demand prediction; nonlinear relationship; dynamic simulation


The sustainability evaluation model of irrigation district groundwater resources carrying capacity based on catastrophe theory

XIAO LIN1,2, HAN XIAO-JUN2 & DONG ZENG-CHUAN1

1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources-Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

2 North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, China

Abstract A novel evaluation method based on catastrophe theory was introduced in this paper. The proposed method is easy for calculation, and it is not necessary to define the weight of evaluation indices so that the influence of subjective factors on assessment can be minimized. Aimed at disadvantages of normal catastrophe evaluation method, an improved method was presented by adjusting the final comprehensive evaluation values using a polynomial curve fitting. On the basis of gained polynomial, the calculated ordinary catastrophic values were adjusted, which makes the classification of evaluation result clearer. Finally, taking the People’s Victory Canal, Henan province of China as a real example, the groundwater resources carrying capacity of the irrigation areas is evaluated using the improved catastrophe evaluation method. The result is in accordance with the actual situation and is consistent with that derived from fuzzy assessment. This evaluation result can therefore offer a valuable reference for sustainable development of irrigation areas.Key words catastrophe theory; irrigation areas; groundwater resources; carrying capacity; evaluation


Study on long-term forecasting method and its application on Xinjiang River

XIUJU ZHANG1, XIUPING LI1 & BOMING LUO2

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, [email protected]

2 Water Conservancy, Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu 21009, China

Abstract Long-term forecasting usually uses statistical methods to forecast the runoff. The key point of such methods is to search for the correlation of forecasting object and the forecasting factors, or study the statistical laws of the hydrological elements from large amounts of historical data, and build models to forecast the runoff. Among the single factor methods, the Time Series Analysis Method is widely used, and in this method it is thought that the variable element in a certain time only relates to the previous elements, hence the forecasting accuracy of this method may be not satisfactory enough in some cases. Nowadays the multi-factor methods are thought to be good methods in forecasting the runoff by building the models, in which many influencing factors, such as precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric pressure, sunspot, etc., are taken into account. The paper takes Meigang and Yiyang stations in Xinjiang River as examples, applies the Time Series Analysis Method to simulate and forecast the annual runoff firstly, and then chooses the Stepwise Regression Analysis Method to search for the correlation between evolution of atmospheric circulation and the hydrological elements. The results indicate that the multi-factor method has a higher fitting rate and forecasting accuracy in normal years compared with the single factor method. However, how to improve the forecasting accuracy in dry years is still a problem to be solved.Key words long-term runoff forecasting; atmospheric circulation factors; Stepwise Regression Analysis


Predicting daily potable water savings by using rainwater tanks at urban scale

HUI XU1, MIKE RAHILLY2 & SHIROMA MAHEEPALA2

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China [email protected]

2 CSIRO Land and Water, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia

Abstract The emerging integrated urban water management (IUWM) concept places a greater emphasis on non-conventional water sources such as recycled wastewater, stormwater and rainwater collection to help secure water supplies in cities. Systems for rainwater collection, storage and utilization are commonly used and promoted in many cities. Predicting the performance of large scale implementation of rainwater tanks is dependent on many factors, which makes the use of computer modelling an attractive option. Previous study mainly focused on modelling the performance of a single tank instead of a number of houses with rainwater tanks. The focus of this research is to predict the daily potable water savings of a cluster of houses with rainwater tank systems of various tank sizes, roof areas and end uses based on Melbourne’s precipitation data for 50 years, occupancy distribution pattern and water demand level. A rainwater tank model based on its behaviour and water balance principle is used to simulate the process of rainwater tank systems at daily time step both for variable and uniform scenarios. It is found that the average daily potable water savings is 15.8% for a variable scenario and 18.8% for a uniform scenario. Key words rainwater tank model; potable water savings; variable scenario; uniform scenario; daily time step


Discussion on international river management by company

HONGZHONG PAN1,2 & MENGGUI JIN1

1 School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, Chinahzhpan @ foxmail.com

2 Department of Geochemistry, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 443002, China

Abstract In human history, conflict or war caused by water disputes in international rivers is common. With daily global water shortage, the conflict among countries will be more and more common. So research on international rivers, and finding a rational model to develop and manage the international river is very important. By analysing the current situation in the development and management of international rivers, this paper finds the issues concerned. The authors propose the remedial measure that a company manages the international rivers. The paper theoretically investigates the makeup and advantage of a joint-stock company, which develops and manages the international rivers. The authors believe it is the key to solving the issues in the development and management of international rivers.Key words international rivers; development; water management


The research on the water environment-carrying capacity on the upstream of Hanjiang basin

YANG ZHOU & XIAODE ZHOUXi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, [email protected]

Abstract With the rapid economic development in China, the interference on the rivers is more serious than in other countries and areas in the same natural condition in the world. Many rivers have faced serious problems, such as pollution, drying river, and a deteriorating ecological system, etc. For weighing the harmony degree between human economic society and the ecological environment of the river, the concept of the water environment carrying capacity (simplified as WECC) of the river is put forward. The WECC of the river is an important part of various natural resources carrying capacity during sustainable development procedure in the river basin. Critical effect factors of WECC of the river are analysed in this paper, the evaluation index system of WECC of the Hanjiang River is also built, eight indexes are selected, and the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process method (G1) is used to determine the index weight of the evaluation index system. Through the calculation of the model on the basis of the related indicator the carrying degree of each indicator can be obtained. Then the water environment-carrying capacity on the upstream of the Hanjiang basin is acquired based on the weighted calculation. The main factors influencing the water environment-carrying capacity were found through the analysis of the present status and dynamic changing tendency of the water environment-carrying capacity on the upstream of Hanjiang basin. Key words water environment-carrying capacity; Hanjiang basin; water environment indicator


Emergy evaluation of water resources ecological–economics system for its sustainability

RUILI GUO1, ZENING WU1 & HONGTAO YU2

1School of Water Conservancy and Environment Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, [email protected]

2School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, China

Abstract Quantitative research on the sustainability of water resources ecological-economic system (WEES) is a key issue that needs to be resolved. Emergy theory is being suggested as a quantitative vehicle to integrate ecological and economic considerations to redress the traditional neglect of water resources ecosystem to a certain extent in policy decisions. On account of the negative externality of water resources, the equilibrium and stability of system, this paper proposed three indicators from Emergy yield perspective. They are system pressure index, system dominance index, system stability index, and these will be used for

Emergy valuation of the sustainability of WEES. Zhengzhou is taken as a study area, all the three indexes were calculated with basic data of WEES in Zhengzhou from 2003 to 2007, meanwhile the sustainability of WEES in Zhengzhou was evaluated. The primary aim of this work is to enrich the methods of evaluating the sustainability of WEES. Key words water resources ecological–economic system; Emergy theory; Emergy indices; sustainability


Response of soil moisture under different crop planting to precipitation in Central Hill Region, Sichuan Basin

XUNJIAN LONG1,2, CHUAN LIANG1, CHUNMIN ZHANG3 & XIEJING ZHAO4

1College of Water Resource and Hydropower Institute, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China [email protected]

2 College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China3Yongchuan Water Resources Bureau, Chongqing 402160, China4Soil and Fertilizer Institute of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, China

Abstract Soil moisture is one of the key factors which can limit crop growth. Based on the observation data of soil moisture and precipitation, during the 2005–2007 growing seasons, in the village of Jielin, about 10 km south of Dongxi town in northeast Sichuan hilly area, the relationship between soil moisture and precipitation under two crops farmed by conservational farming method was analysed. The crops were green pepper in ridge and wheat ridge in ground grid and solitary wheat. Both the duration and quantity of rainfall were considered. The statistical results of soil moisture showed that the change range of solitary wheat was 20.98. Precipitation lasted for different times, and each crop grew at changing speed, but the total trend was a gradual decrease. In addition, a comparison of different precipitation years showed that the average soil moisture has different changing patterns.Key words crop; soil moisture; precipitation; hill region


Effects of the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Transfer Project on water environment in the middle–downstream of Hanjiang River

PING XIE, BIN XU & CHAN XIAOState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, [email protected]

Abstract In order to evaluate the effects of the middle route of China’s South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MR-SNWTP) on water bloom in the middle–downstream of Hanjiang River, the effects of MR-SNWTP on hydrology situation and water quality were analysed. The results indicate that the hydrological situation and water quality in the middle–downstream of Hanjiang River will be obviously changed by the MR-SNWTP, which will surely accelerate the outbreak of water bloom in Hanjiang River. Even though the diversion work from Yangtze River to Hanjiang River (DWYRHR) could improve the water environment to a certain extent, there are still a lot of things to do to effectively prevent the outbreak of water bloom, such as increasing the water compensation in dry season, and strengthening the waste reduction control. Meanwhile the ecological environment monitoring and scientific research of the Hanjiang River basin should be strengthened in order to provide a basis for the latter part of the water transfer project which can ensure the environment of water diversion area not be harmed and achieve sustainable use of water resources.

dict://key.0895DFE8DB67F9409DB285590D870EDD/even%20though



Key words the middle route of south-to-north water transfer project; Hanjiang River; water bloom; hydrological situation; water quality


River basin water resources allocation and sustainable management: key issues and challenges

LIYING YANG, XINYI XU & HONGRUI WANGKey Laboratory for water and Sediment Science, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, [email protected]

Abstract River basin water resources allocation and management policy through the three development phases to improved and sustainable WR management to maximize social, environmental and economic benefits of water use, is introduced. Based on the review and assessment of international practices in river basin water resources (WR) allocation in selected countries and river basins, a comparison of various methodologies and models of WR allocation and documentation of best practices have been completed. Administrative allocation and market-based allocation are the two main allocation mechanisms. Formulating the river basin water resources allocation planning should be confronted with the hydrological variability, accurate water resources assessment, and agreements or shares among the different governments, etc. Due to the key issues and challenges in developing river basin water allocation, three steps were proposed: technical analysis, stakeholder consultation and government decision, implementation and administration of the water allocation scheme.Key words water resources allocation; watershed policy and planning; Integrated Water Resources Management; sustainable development


A preliminary study of a framework of water resources regulation technology in China

TIANLING QIN1,2, DENGHUA YAN2, XINSHAN SONG1, WEIHUA XIAO2, CHENG ZHANG2 & BAISHA WENG2,3

1 Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, [email protected]

2Water Resources Department, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China3Civil Engineering Department, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Abstract This paper synthetically analyses the characteristics of the terrestrial hydrological cycle in China and the spatial evolution regularities of national water resources from the aspects of precipitation, surface water and groundwater. It also summarises the new developments of water resources problems in a changing environment, and water resources problems such as the severe contradiction between water supply and demand, severe water deficiency, hydroecology degeneration, and water pollution aggravation. Besides, on the basis of water resources, hydroecology and water environment evolution mechanism, data from a multi-sphere ecology-hydrology-hydroenvironment monitoring network will be utilized to conduct numerical simulation. A framework for synthetic regulation and control of China water resources in a changing environment will be established in aspects of water resources allocation and scheduling oriented to extreme weather processes, the optimal operation of hydraulic project (group) and hydroecological environment control based on total amount control and the principle of three red lines.Key words water resources; hydro-ecology; water environment; synthetic regulation and control


Status of spate irrigated agricultural systems in Sindh Province, Pakistan

FATEH M. MARI1 & YAMEEN MEMON2

1 Agricultural Economics, SAU, Tandojam 70060, Pakistan [email protected]

2 Management Development Centre, Hyderabad, Sindh, Pakistan

Abstract Spate irrigation systems are unique to semi-arid environments. The earthen diversion weirs are constructed across the hill torrents to regulate the water for various uses including agriculture and groundwater recharging through field channels. These channels carry flood water to the command areas for field irrigation. Communities using traditional technology usually build these diversion structures and weirs and the water conveyance systems. Communities’ labour contribution is proportional to the size of the land on the spate river, command area or their water share. The spate irrigation system, despite its large coverage and economic importance in Pakistan, is a relatively overlooked area, which is less understood even amongst technical experts. Thus, its development, water regulations and rights, as well as the land and water tenure systems, are yet to be developed and defined. The aim of the paper is to explore and document various aspects and dimensions of spate farming in Sindh province, Pakistan. Key words spate irrigation; water rights; land and water tenure; crop and livestock economics


Drainage scavenger tube wells can sustain rural livelihoods: evidence from Sindh Pakistan

BAKHSHAL KHAN LASHARI & SHAFI MOHAMMAD KORIInstitute of Irrigation and Drainage Engg, Mehran University of Engng and Tech Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan [email protected]

Abstract Pakistan is an agricultural country. The supply of irrigation water to crops is being made through a network of surface irrigation systems and groundwater. The left Bank of Lower Indus covers administrative boundaries of ten districts which includes districts of Nawabshah and Sanghar. The government of Sindh Province installed more than 350 scavenger (saline and fresh bores together) tubewells in Districts Nawabshah and Sanghar with the main objective of providing drainage and to recover shallow fresh groundwater for irrigation supplements. The study was carried out in a command area of 79 tube wells of District Nawabshah to examine the effect of these tube wells on sustainable rural livelihood of irrigated agriculture community. The continuous pumping from the scavenger tube wells for more than two days indicated that there was not any significant change in water quality, thus it is concluded that the scavenger tube well is a good method to control saltwater movement in to freshwater zone by balancing or keeping interface at constant level provided that the ratio of saline water to freshwater pumping is 1:1. Pre-project findings reveal that 91% of irrigated agricultural land had a severe water logging situation and 9% of the area was moderately water logged. The recorded average water table depth was <0.15 m. The cropping intensity was recorded at <30% and the maximum yield of major crops such as cotton, wheat and rice was 1080, 1400 and 1400 kg/acre and the maximum land value was less than Rs. 40000 per acre. The women and children were the most affected because more than 85% of rural women were engaged in agricultural activities. Post project (1999–2007) results indicated that the average water table depth was below 1.5 m depth from the surface. However, the categorical decrease in water table was: 60% area was below 1.75 m depth and 40% area was between 0.75 and 1.5 m depth. The maximum crop yield of major crops such as cotton, wheat and rice was increased to 148%, 55% and 55%, respectively, and the cropping


intensity was increased to 149%. The land value of agriculture command area was also increased to more than Rs. 150 000 per acre (274%). Operation and maintenance of tube wells was determined as Rs. 315/acre, which includes charges of electricity, person deployed for operation, maintenance of tube well and disposal channels. Presently, all this cost is borne by the government of Sindh. The influence of reverse seepage of saline water from the disposal channels has been investigated, which indicated that when channels were constructed above ground surface level, then the seepage of saline water affected about 30 m width in each side of the channel area (Kori et al., 2009). It is concluded that the scavenger tube well was a good approach to control water logging, protect salt water intrusion into the freshwater zone, increase cropping intensity and sustain rural livelihood of irrigated agriculture community. Further, if the operation and maintenance is given to the farmer community then it would be unacceptable to the farmer community because its operation and maintenance is beyond the scope of farmer due to cost and technicality. Also, the scavenger tube wells maintain an unchangeable saline-freshwater interface.Key words Scavenger Tube well; drainage; irrigated lands; rural livelihood; women; Pakistan


Impacts of climate change on the availability of water resources and water resources planning

XIANG ZHANG1, YANFEI CHEN1, JUN XIA2 & QINGCHUN YANG1

1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, [email protected]

2 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface Processes, IGSNRR, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Abstract The application of climate change research results in the planning of water resources development and management is facing the challenges caused by the uncertainties. Taking the upstream watershed in Hanjiang basin as an example, the SWAT model was used to simulate the monthly averaging runoff and the amounts of ecological water demands in streams were estimated under the current and future situations, considering the impact of climate change in order to evaluate the available water resources for local users and the transportation project. The results show that the exploitation and utilization of the surface water resources of the Han River basin is rational and moderate utilization at a sustainable level for now and in near future. It was also found that there are obvious uncertainties in the evaluation of the availability of surface water resources because the impacts of climate change on the key variables that should be calculated in the method, such as ecologic water demands and the high flow during flooding season are not considered. In order to use the climate change researching results in the design of water engineering and the planning of water resources development and management, the modelling and predicting reliability of related elements of climate and the response of the factors influencing the runoff generation and the related planning components to the climate change should be comprehensively evaluated.Key words SWAT; climate change; availability of water resources; water resources planning


A map engine for water resources management

BING XU & ZHANG YINGSchool of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Chinaxbnjnu @ 126 .com

Abstract GIS technology has recently been widely used in water resources management systems; it provides the functions of water resources related information management, analysis, evaluation and prediction. But most existing GIS map engines have the shortcoming of high coupling degree, poor

extension and re-use. A plug-in architecture based map engine (MapZ) has been put forward. It is a map engine being designed based on low coupling framework interface, it adopts the plug-in based deploy from IoC container and embedded layer dividing mechanism to implement the dynamically expansion and reusability. Meanwhile, time dimension and 4D operation, which supports water resources spatial data analysis, has also been brought in. Finally, the mono platform development technology makes MapZ able to run across different platforms. MapZ has already been applied in a water resources management system which is based on Linux. It proved that MapZ could provide an interactive management way for spatial data and property data of water resources. Key words water resources management; map engine; plug-in architecture; plug-in development; reflection technology


A tentative research into correlations among stakeholders in river basin ecological restoration compensation

JIGAN WANG1, WEIWEI WANG1, JIAN XU1,2 & JIE ZHANG1

1 Water Resources Management, School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China [email protected]

2 Water Resources Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China

Abstract In a basin-wide ecological restoration compensation (ERC) plan, conflicts of interest among the affected regions may exist. Basin-wide ecological restoration compensation conflicts (ERCC) modelling has been constructed via conflict analyses to achieve the equilibrium solution, which concludes that in order to establish a basin-wide ERC consultative mechanism, the ecological restorers should form an alliance with the ecological beneficiaries and the river-basin authority shall assume the communicative and mediatory role. A further quantitative analysis of the relationships among the relevant stakeholders via the evolutionary game theory (EGT) establishes an EGT modelling for the basin-wide ERC implementation within the framework of the basin-wide ERC consultative mechanism, which consequentially leads to a stable ERC control strategy.Key words river basin; ecological restoration compensation; conflict analysis; evolutionary game theory


Computation method of instream ecological flow based on physical habitat simulation

JIAN LI1,2 & ZIQIANG XIA1,2


2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

Abstract The principles and methods of instream ecological flow based on the PHABSIM (Physical Habitat Simulation model) are introduced, and the middle reach of the Yangtze River is used as a case study for the calculation of minimum and optimal ecological flow. The differences between the result of physical habitat simulation and that of the traditional hydrological methods were compared and analysed to verify the rationality of the habitat model. The results of the physical habitat simulation show that during the spawning periods of four major Chinese carp species, from April to June, the minimum ecological flow of the middle reach of Yangtze River is 4570 m3/s, and the optimal ecological flow is 12 000–15 500 m3/s. These results are within the scope of the value calculated by traditional hydrological methods, and seem to be more reasonable. The conclusions of this paper could provide suggestions for fish habitat protection and water resources management, and references for ecological regulation of the Three Gorges Project and Gezhouba dam.

Key words physical habitat model; ecological flow; weighted usable area; numerical simulation


Analysis of instream ecological flow for the Songhua River, China

LANLAN YU1,2,3, ZIQIANG XIA1,2,3, LIDAN GUO1,2,3 & ZHIHUA LU1,2,3

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Chinayulanlan @ hhu.edu.cn

2 College of Water Resource and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China3 Institute of International Rivers Research Academy, Hohai Univ. Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract As a result of socio-economic development and population growth, the stability and the health of river ecosystems have been affected. The flow is one of decisive factors ensuring the health of a river ecosystem. In this paper, the instream ecological flow processes of the Songhua River were investigated and a new method was proposed to compute the minimum (maximum) instream ecological flow rates. The paper selected the Harbin hydrologic station of the Songhua River as the case study site, employed the proposed methods to compute the minimum (maximum) instream ecological flow and optimal instream ecological flow at the Harbin hydrologic station, and evaluated these using the Tennant Method. The results provide a reference for maintaining river ecosystem stability and health in the Songhua River.Key words minimum (maximum) instream ecological flow; optimal instream ecological flow; the Songhua River


Field observation of water temperature profiles in large reservoirs with different features

LU BAOHONG1,2, KANG YUEE1, ZHANG HANWEN1, GU HUANGHE1, JIANG SHUTING1, HUI XIAOJUAN1, CAO ZHEN1 & YEOU-KOUNG TUNG3

1College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China [email protected]


3Department of Civil Engineering, HongKong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, KowLoon, Hong Kong, China

Abstract The study considers three reservoirs with water depths of 20–190 metres and different features to analyse the effects of moving boat, observation duration and air temperature on the water temperature readings. It was found that water temperature measurement should be completed in 109 min and the variation of air temperature was not larger than 6C, while the boat moved in the range with radius 25 m. The deviation of temperature readings from the uniform-temperature-layer in the same vertical is less than 0.05C. The field study in Xin'anjiang Reservoir shows that: (a) the main factor influencing the surface water-temperature was air temperature, (b) the vertical temperature gradient of the thermocline was controlled by water intake of the hydropower station and air temperature; and (c) the hypolimnion was located at the bottom of the large reservoir and was less influenced by external environment with a minimum temperature gradient less than 0.01C/m. Key words large reservoir; field observation; temperature gradients; Xin'anjiang Reservoir



Reservoir ecological operation model considering river environmental flow

WENXIAN GUO, HONGXIANG WANG & JIANXIN XUNorth China University of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450011, [email protected]

Abstract In order to reduce the negative influence of a reservoir on a river ecosystem, the ecological operation of the reservoir should be studied to maintain river ecosystem health. The ecological operation target maintaining river environmental flow was proposed. Based on the flow data of Yichang gauge on the Yangtze River, the minimal and optimal environmental river flows were analysed. The paper proposes a reservoir ecological operation model that comprehensively considers flood control, power generation, navigation and the ecological environment. Three typical years including a wet, normal and dry year were selected and Particle Swarm Optimization was applied to analyse the model. The results show that there are different influences of ecological operation rules on the economic benefit of the hydropower station. Finally, ecological operation measures for the Three Gorges reservoir were proposed to maintain river environmental flows. According to the results, the hydropower benefit of the reservoir will not decrease dramatically while the ecological demand can be met, if we introduce a suitable re-operation pattern. The results provide a reference for making the reasonable operation schemes for Three Gorges reservoir.Key words ecological operation; environmental flow; Three Gorges project; optimization technology


Irrigation determination for Populus euphratica seedlings using HYDRUS-1D and pot experiments in the arid region, China

YONGHUA ZHU1, LILIANG REN1, HAISHEN LÜ1, ZHONGBO YU1 & YANING CHEN2

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China [email protected]

2Xingjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, No. 818, Beijing South Road, Umquqi, Xinjiang 830011, China

Abstract Using pot experiments and the HYDRUS-1D model, the irrigation timing and amount for 1-year old Populus euphratica (P. euphratica) seedlings in the field was determined without considering lateral runoff. Six irrigation treatments were applied, among them, the non-irrigated treatment was set up not only as a comparison but to determine the uptake reduction function. According to the experimental results, the optimum irrigation under pot was first determined, secondly, the application of HYDRUS-1D was tested by the comparison of the measured and simulated actual evapotranspiration, third, the cumulative deep drainage in the field during the growth period was calculated by HYDRUS-1D, and finally, the optimum irrigation amount was estimated from the actual evapotranspiration, deep drainage and precipitation during the normal hydrological year. The results obtained show that the timing of irrigation in the field is similar to that in pot considering precipitation; the optimum amount of irrigation is 166 mm in a normal hydrological year. Keywords arid region of China; HYDRUS-1D model; irrigation; Populus euphratica




Study on regional water resource carrying capacity and sustainability in the Three Gorges reservoir

WEN-MING YAN, LING LIU & ZHONGBO YU State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Chinaywm0815 @ 163 .com

Abstract The major factors of the water resource carrying capacity were determined in this study for the Three Gorge reservoir area by using the characteristics of water efficiency in the basin. Based on the integrated, remotely sensed and spatially distributed information on the natural state of the water resources, ecological environment, watershed management, and social economy, an assessment index system of water resource carrying capacity was constructed for basin-scale evaluation of ecosystem health and water resource carrying capacity. With the index system, the appraisal indexes determined by the grey correlation analysis method was selected. Then, a basin-scale water resource appraisal model was developed by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which was applied to the Three Gorges reservoir basin before its impoundment. The results indicated that the water resource carrying capacity for the basin can be classified into three grades: the suitable-loading region, light-loading region and over-loading region. The suitable-loading region includes the Qi River sub-region, the Modao River Long River sub-region and the North sub-region; the light-loading region includes the western Hubei sub-region, the Wu River-Peng River sub-region and the North-edge sub-region, with the serious over-loading trends in the Qi River sub-region and the North sub-region. The evaluation results provide a basis for planning sustainable utilization of water resources and ecological and environmental protection in the Three Gorges area. Finally, the causes influencing the water resource carrying capacity characteristics of the Three Gorges reservoir were analysed and the mode of water resource management and some relevant suggestions and measures were presented. The evaluation results may be useful for local water resources protection and sustainable utilization. Key words basin-scale; water resource carrying capacity; assessment index system; sustainable utilization; the Three Gorges reservoir


Evaluation of ecological instream flow of the Pearl River basin, South China

QIANG ZHANG1,2, YING CUI1,2, YONGQIN DAVID CHEN3 & XIAOHONG CHEN1,2

1Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, [email protected]

2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Guangzhou 510275, China

3Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Abstract The Pearl River basin is characterized by humid climate and the water resources are abundant, but it suffers from water deficit due to heavy water pollution. Alteration of the hydrological cycle due to climate changes may cause alterations of hydrological processes, so has the potential to negatively influence the ecological environment of the Pearl River basin. In this paper, the monthly runoff data at 11 major hydrological stations are analysed to evaluate ecological instream flow of the Pearl River basin using five hydrological methodologies: the minimum monthly average flow method, the improved 7Q10 method, NGPRP method, the monthly minimum ecological flow calculation method and the monthly frequency calculation method. The results show that the monthly minimum ecological flow estimation method and the monthly frequency calculation technique are the right choice in terms of computation of minimum ecological flow and optimal ecological flow respectively of the Pearl River basin. The estimated ecological streamflow can be classified as the medium or optimum ranges when compared to those determined by the Tennant method. In addition, the results indicate that the probability of 50% that the ecological streamflow is satisfied should give environment-friendly streamflow variations. Furthermore, this study also provides a reference

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http://dj.iciba.com/Utilization/

technical framework with respect to the evaluation of ecological water requirement based on monthly runoff data, and is also of scientific and practical merits in basin scale water resource management in the Pearl River basin.Key words minimum ecological flow; optimal ecological flow; probability-based ecological water evaluation method; probability distributions; Pearl River basin


River ecosystem construction and conservation study of Wuxie River, China

QICHENG ZHANG, LIHONG LIUA, YIQING GUANA & LONGCANG SHUACollege of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Chinazhangqc @hhu.edu.cn

Abstract A river ecosystem is one of the most important parts of the landscape. It offers physical contributions to human society and economy such as maintenance of water quality, recreation and ecological services. However, the river ecosystem is easily impacted by human activities like agriculture, urbanization and industrialization. Traditional river ecosystem conservation and construction mainly focus on the river ecosystem itself, but consider inadequately the resident’s requirements. This leads to weak coordination between the river ecosystem construction and the development of the human society and economy. This paper considers the influence of human activities on the river ecosystem of Wuxie River. By analysing the hydrological characteristics, landscape pattern and interaction of each landscape element, it was found that Wuxie River faces problems such as water pollution and soil erosion. Such problems result in the loss of its ecological service function. The study area was divided into three different function areas including natural ecology area, agricultural ecology area, and urban construction area. According to the corresponding function areas, the configuration of the river channel, river cross-sections and the processing mode of the embankments were determined. The embankments are treated by reservation, refit, demolition, reconstruction, or increasing and strengthening mode in order to satisfy the river ecological construction. Sixteen miniature weirs are constructed along the river to regulate the river flow and change the configuration.Key words river ecosystem construction and conservation; ecohydrology; Wuxie River


System dynamics modelling of the water and salt balance of Bosten Lake in northwest China: implications for ecologically sustainable management

CAIJUN WANG1, YUFENG LUO2,3, WEIGUANG WANG2 & BIN HAN2,3

1China International Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing100048, China 2State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,

China3College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

[email protected]

Abstract Salinisation of Bosten Lake threatens the eco-system in the Kaidu-Kongque Basin in northwest China. A water–salt balance model of Bosten Lake is helpful to understand inherent mechanism of salinisation and develop appropriate water management strategies. A system dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water and salt balance of Bosten Lake using a commercial system dynamics modelling environment, Vensim. The model was used to investigate the optimal water table for salinisation



control and investigate strategies for sustainable management under different scenarios. Through scenario analysis, we suggest that more water be pumped to Kongque River or diverted to Tarim River for irrigation or ecological restoration, to lower the water level and reduce evaporation losses during high inflow years. As for low inflow, increasing inflow through pumping groundwater and reducing irrigation diversion from Kaidu River should be an effective way for avoiding high salt concentrations. Other scenarios can be easily evaluated by using the framework presented in this paper.Key words system dynamics modelling; ecohydrology; sustainable use; changing environment; Bosten Lake, NW China


Water environmental characteristics analysis at a Chinese sturgeon spawning site downstream of Gezhou Dam

QIHUI CHEN1,2, JIEYING DONG2, LIANG QI1,3 &YU YANG1,4

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, Chinachenqh @ hhu.edu.cn

2 College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China3 College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China4 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract Seasonal effect analysis and water quality assessment were done for water quality parameters of the present Chinese sturgeon spawning site in the Yangtze River. The factor analysis method was employed to evaluate the seasonal correlations of water quality data for 14 physical and chemical parameters published in Water Year Books from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s. Water quality was assessed based on in situ monitoring data and water quality evaluation results during 2003–2009 from the Yangtze River Basin Water Resources Bulletin. The results show that most water quality parameters at the sturgeon spawning site have seasonal characteristics. Water quality during the spawning period of Chinese sturgeon seldom met grade II of the Surface Water Environment Standards which is required for fish spawning sites, and measures should be taken to protect water quality of the spawning site. Key words Chinese sturgeon spawning site; seasonal effect analysis; water quality assessment


Study on ammonia nitrogen of Chaobaixin River in Tianjin city based on improved SWAT model

HUAIFENG GE, ZUHAO ZHOU, DAYONG QIN & JUN’E ZHANGChina Institute of Hydropower & Water Resources Research, Beijing 100038, [email protected]

Abstract Chaobaixin River lies in Tianjin city, and is facing serious water environmental pollution; water quality is mostly low-grade V. According to the physical characteristic of pollution loadings, studies on the production, movement and transformation of ammonia nitrogen based on the SWAT model will play a major role in scientific decision-making. In this paper, an integrated module of water resources and water environment was built. Monthly surface flow data from 1985 to 2004 were applied to simulate the model with the correlation coefficient of 0.6 in calibration and 0.7 in verification. Due to lack of data information about water quality, monthly ammonia nitrogen data from 1995 to 2004 were applied to simulate the model with the correlation coefficient of 0.67 and the Nash coefficient of 0.61 in calibration, and 0.65 and 0.59 in verification. The SWAT model could be applied to the research study area. The study shows that there is a great difference in the ammonia nitrogen caused by the inflow; pollutants brought by inflow have the

highest contribution rate (51.2%) on the water quality of Chaobaixin River, and point source pollution resulting from industry waste water and domestic life sewerage.Key words SWAT model; Chaobaixin River; ammonia nitrogen


Study on the concentration of nutrient in a channel reservoir after impoundment

TIEGANG ZHENG1, HUICHAO DAI1, DINGGUO JIANG2 & JINGQIAO MAO1

15 College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Chinaztg [email protected]

2College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China

Abstract According to the characteristics of channel reservoirs, e.g. the Three Gorges project, a comparative analysis of monitoring data was carried out. At the same time, numerical simulation for hydrodynamics was performed. The fluxes of TN and TP through cross-sections were computed. Present results show that the Three Gorges Reservoir has reached the eutrophication standard after impoundment; the water stratification in the tributary bay is changed after impoundment which can not be simplified as a one dimensional characteristic problem; during spring, there are on average 15.25 kg nitrogen and 0.73 kg phosphorus per second in the mainstream through cross section in 2004, and there are more than 43 g phosphorus and 513 g nitrogen backflow into Xiangxi River per second during spring in 2005; nitrogen diffusion from the Yangtze River and phosphorus diffusion from the head water of the Xiangxi Bay mainly influenced the spatial pattern of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Xiangxi Bay.Key words channel reservoir; nutrient; impoundment; Three Gorges Reservoir; spatial distribution


River water quality assessment based on principal component analysis

GUIPING LI & ZHONGBO YUState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

Abstract This paper analysed the change of physico-chemical variables of the main tributaries around Lake Taihu. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to distinguish the primary impact factors of the water quality. The spatial-temporal distribution of principal components was constructed to describe the water quality levels. The result showed that NH3-N, NO3-N, TN, TP and BOD5 played a principal role in the water quality assessment. NH3-N is the dominant impact factor in the north of Lake Taihu. The east of the lake is mainly influenced by TN and CODMn. Rivers in the south and the west are mainly impacted by TN and NO3-N. The application of PCA is an effective assessment tool to identify the rank of rivers. Most of the polluted rivers are located in the north of Lake Taihu, while the rivers with the best quality are located in the southeast. Key words Taihu; principal component analysis; water quality


Simulating the effects of different control scenarios on the non-point source pollution in the Meilin watershed

XINGPING WANG1,2, ZHONGBO YU1, YUNJUN LI2, LILI ZHAO1,FENGHUA GAO1 & GUIPING LI1

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, China

2State Grid Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003, [email protected]

Abstract Non-point source pollution is the main source for Lake Taihu water pollution, of which the agricultural non-point source pollution proportion increased rapidly in recent years. Land use and fertilization are two key factors for the field loss of nitrogen and phosphorous from farmland runoff. Meilin watershed is a hilly country area located in western Lake Taihu. In order to investigate the impact of different land-use scenarios and fertilizer applications on nitrogen and phosphorus losses and control on the pollutants transport and mitigation, Meilin watershed was selected as the study area. The distributed model SWAT 2005 (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, version 2005) was set up and calibrated in this watershed for simulating the hydrologic and contaminants migration processes. The outputs of the nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants under four different control scenarios and the current control measure were simulated with SWAT 2005. Results show that the outlet discharge, sediment transport, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) outputs decreased with the increase of forest land. Meantime, we concluded that the Grain for Green Project is effective in reducing nitrogen and phosphorus losses. However, as the fertilization reduced by 20%, the outputs of TN and TP at the watershed outlet were comparatively reduced by 14.27% and 8.93%, respectively; as the fertilization was reduced by 50%, TN and TP outputs would accordingly be reduced by 31.16% and 22.27%. Recognizing the above concerns, we proposed two relative measures for pollution prevention and management in the region.Key words agricultural non-point source pollution (AGNP); SWAT model; nitrogen and phosphorus pollutants; scenario simulation


Evaluation of agricultural non-point pollution in Baiyangdian Lake Basin using SWAT model

KANGNING CHEN1 & GEYA BIAN2

16 Remote Sensing Technology Application Research Center, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, [email protected]

2Department of Irrigation and Drainage, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China

Abstract This paper selected the Baiyangdian Lake basin as the objective study area and carried out an agricultural non-point pollutants simulation based on the SWAT model. With the support of remote sensing and related geographical information, stream network, sub-basins division, land use and land cover distribution, and soil distribution, were prepared for SWAT model. Gauged precipitation, runoff, and pollutants data from 1998 to 1999 were adopted to calibrate and validate the SWAT model parameters. Three scenarios, viz. the installation of vegetable filter strip, the preventive soil loss measures, and the fertilizing control measures for crops were applied and analysed. The results showed that the operation, viz. the contour tillage, strip cropping on the contour, and terrace systems in the scenario II was the most effective operation and the efficiency was 29.9%, 17.3%, and 16.9% for sediment, TN, and TP loadings, respectively.Key words agricultural non-point pollution; remote sensing; SWAT model; Baiyangdian lake basin


Study on water quality prediction model of centralized drinking water wellhead

GUOHUA FANG & FENGCUN YUCollege of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, Chinafcyhhu @yahoo.com.cn

Abstract SVM and BP water quality prediction models were established following the basic theories for support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (BP). RS-SVM and RS-BP water quality prediction models were established combining the complementary nature of rough set (RS), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (BP). These models were applied to the Gucheng Lake centralized drinking water wellhead. The results show that the water quality prediction model based on SVM has higher accuracy than the water quality prediction model based on BP predicted, so the RS-SVM prediction model is the best to predict water quality.Key words drinking water wellhead; drinking water areas; rough set; support vector machine; artificial neural network; water quality prediction model


Experimental study on mechanism of the nutrient export in a small watershed

HONGWEI LIU1, ZHONGBO YU2,3, FEI GAO4, XING CHEN2, FENGHUA GAO2 & XINGPING WANG2

1 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, [email protected]

2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources; HoHai University; Nanjing 210098, China3 Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Nevada 89154-4010, USA4 Qinhuai River Hydraulic Management Agency of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210001, China

Abstract In order to understand the producing mechanism of agricultural non-point source pollution, which is one of the crucial contributions to the water eutrophication, a series of field experiments were carried out in the Meilin watershed in the southwest of Taihu Lake. Meteorologic parameters (i.e. precipitation), streamflow and water quality were observed in the watershed outlet. Five testing plots for different kinds of land uses were set up for analysing the quantity and quality of the runoff and soil moisture dynamics within the watershed. Impact factors and mechanism of the non-point source pollution outputs were also examined on both watershed and plot scales. The field observation and analysis results show that the concentration of the contaminants was high at the watershed outlet, at the beginning of the storm events; the peak of the concentration appears earlier than the discharge peak; the concentrations vary quite differently during the storm and recession periods. At the beginning of the storm events the rainfall–runoff process brings contaminants, mainly through erosion, while the output of the contaminants is controlled mainly by the eluviations after the storm. The study on the testing plots in different land uses indicates that the impacting factors of the non-point source contaminants include the erosion and eluviation effects of the rainfall–runoff process, as well as the land use/vegetation and farm management. Based on the study on the relationship of the pollution load and impact factors, surface non-point source pollution load was evaluated in the watershed, and the result shows 70–80% nitrogen and 80–90%, or even more, phosphorus output with the surface runoff. The experimental and analysis results in this study could help improve the non-point sources pollution simulation and identify the dominant output region. Furthermore, it could provide

valuable information for decision making on land and water resource management.Key words phosphorus; nitrogen; non-point source pollution; erosion and eluviation; small watershed


Confined water quality evaluation of drawdown cone in Jining based on improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

YU CHEN & LONGCANG SHUState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

Abstract Groundwater quality evaluation is a fuzzy concept that involves many influence factors and multi complex interactions. The traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method used in groundwater quality evaluation relies so much on the expert’s knowledge and experiences that the evaluation results are imprecise. In order to solve this problem and better reflect the effect of each influence factor on groundwater quality evaluation, an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight method and weighted average principle was proposed in this paper and used to evaluate confined water quality in the study area by analysing the confined water quality samples in a drawdown cone in Jining, China, collected in April 2009. The evaluation results were compared with those of a traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and a five-element connection number method (another systematic method of handling fuzziness and uncertainty in groundwater quality assessment), and the comparison indicated that our proposed improved method was applicable and predominant in groundwater quality evaluation because it is more objective and rational, effectively avoiding the uncertainty in evaluation results.Key words improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; entropy weight; drawdown cone; confined water; groundwater quality evaluation


Analysis on recharge efficiency of injection wells: laboratory and numerical modelling

WEI LI1, LONGCANG SHU2, YUQIAO LONG1, YANGE LI1 & BINBIN WANG2

17 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, [email protected]

18 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract Artificial recharge is a common method to maintain sustainable utilization of groundwater resources. Also, it is a key technology to realize surface water and groundwater integrated allocation. Injection wells are important groundwater artificial recharge facilities. To reveal well recharge characteristics and quantitatively assess recharge rate, a laboratory study and numerical model were employed. A sand tank was used to simulate water flow under different well recharge processes in an unconfined aquifer. Several injection wells with different depth were constructed. During the experiment, the water table in the sand and recharge rate were observed. The study showed that different injection wells could lead to different water mound shapes. Based on these shapes, injection wells can be divided into three types: dry well, dry-wet well and wet well. Then a preliminary analysis on recharge rate and water mound variation was conducted. In combination with these experimental results, a numerical model was built with HYDRUS to simulate well recharge processes in detail. The recharge rate of unit well depth was calculated from the numerical modelling results. The optimum unit well depth was not a constant and it fell in a range.


Finally, in order to provide a practical and convenient method for recharge rate evaluation, a semi-theoretical formula was derived to assess the recharge rate of partially penetrating wells quantitatively.Key words artificial recharge; injection well; modelling; recharge rate


Field evidence and numerical simulation of scale effect of hydraulic conductivity

CHENGPENG LU1,2, LONGCANG SHU1, XUNHONG CHEN2 & YING ZHANG1,2

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China [email protected]

2 School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska 68583, USA

Abstract Scale effects of hydraulic conductivity (K) are often reported from the results of different kinds of field aquifer tests. However, the scale effects of K values estimated by pumping tests are rarely discussed separately. In this study, field tests, which were conducted in Houzhai karst basin, southwestern China, were used to test the scale effect of K. The support volume and nominal length were separately regarded as the measurement scale. Numerous numerical pumping tests were performed in the hypothetic heterogeneous aquifers to evaluate the scale effect using the estimated K values in pumping tests. The results of the different field tests provided the verification of the scale effect of K. While the nominal length was considered as the measurement scale, the scale effect of K is not significant due to the paucity of field tests. The scale effect of K was reproduced using numerical pumping tests in heterogeneous aquifers, and becomes significant as the heterogeneity of the aquifer increases. With respect to a mildly heterogeneous aquifer in this study, it is difficult to find the sharp increasing trend between K and the measurement scale because the difference between the high K zone and low K zone is relatively small. Key words scale effect; hydraulic conductivity; karst medium; measurement scale; pumping test; heterogeneous aquifer


Study on unsteady saturated–unsaturated flow subjected to variable soil water characteristic curve

PENG-QIANG CAO1, YUE-ZAN TAO2 & LONG-CANG SHU1

19 Hohai University; Nanjing 210098, China pq - [email protected]

2Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China

Abstract Based on the Richards equation, a finite difference program is presented for modelling transient non-steady-state and nonlinear seepage flow through saturated–unsaturated porous media of a stream–aquifer system. Responding to the variability of the unsaturated aquifer’s structure induced by the water table fluctuation, variable soil water characteristic curves are adopted for modelling groundwater seepage. The vertical seepage section is divided into saturated zone, transition zone and vertical seepage zone from bottom to upper. Horizontal flow and vertical flow occur synchronously in the saturated zone and the transition zone, and there is only vertical movement of seepage in the vertical seepage zone. Finite difference and linear shape function are used for the spatial discretization, and the Picard scheme is used for temporal discretization. Basic information responding to the general mesh structure is generated automatically, then, the automatic and homogenous meshes adapting to the seepage free surface can be obtained. Based on a sand-box experiment, the water table and runoff volume of free surface seepage responding to soil water characteristic curve is discussed. The results show that, compared to the fixed soil

http://dict.cnki.net/dict_result.aspx?searchword=%E5%8F%AF%E5%8F%98%E6%80%A7&tjType=sentence&style=&t=variability


water characteristic curve, the variable curve provides more accurate simulation results.Key words saturated–unsaturated flow; soil water characteristic curve; salt-box experiment; Richards equation; finite difference


Deuterium and oxygen-18 variations in subsurface flow in a soil column experiment

ZHONGCHENG TAN1, BAOHONG LU1, JIAN YIN2, SHANSHAN LIANG3, YUDE ZHANG1 & YINGYING SUN1

20 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

21 Shanghai Hydrological General Station, Shanghai 200232, China22 Shanghai Municipal Drainage Administration, Shanghai 200001, China

Abstract This paper presents experimental data on the depth distribution of the stable isotopes deuterium (2H) and oxygen-18 (18O) in subsurface flow through soil columns in a single rain event. A theoretical model was created based on the stable isotope method to quantify the relationship between the amount of vertical migration of soil water and soil water content. The soil column experiments were conducted in the Wudaogou Hydrological Experimental Catchment (WHEC) located in north Anhui Province of China, in October 2007. Subsurface flow samples in soil columns (typically 60–220 cm in diameter and 0–400 cm in depth) of two different soil types (clayey loam and sandy loam) were collected and analysed for calcium ion content, electrical conductivity (EC), 18O and 2H. The results indicated that there are relatively high temporal and spatial variations in deuterium and oxygen-18 isotope composition in subsurface flow at different soil column depth during the single rain event. 18O and 2H values of subsurface flow from two different soil types both decreased with increasing soil column depth. Key words subsurface flow; stable isotopes; rainfall-runoff; soil column experiment; calcium ion


Parameter optimization approach for the Green-Ampt infiltration model

LONG XIANG1,2, LI CHEN2, ZHONGBO YU1,3 & FENGHUA GAO1

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, [email protected]

2Desert Research Institution, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA3Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Abstract The Green-Ampt (G-A) infiltration model is widely used in physically-based hydrological models due to its acceptable physical origin and computational simplicity. Consequently, the G-A model parameters become critical in practical applications. However, previous parameter estimation approaches for the G-A model generally lack a theoretical basis. The goal of this study is to develop an optimization approach for the G-A parameter estimation under natural conditions with the help of a field rainfall simulator experiment and soil moisture measurement. An optimization method based on Levenberg-Marquardt arithmetic is used to search the best G-A parameters by matching the solution of the Richards equation and confirming the validity of the optimization method. Several homogeneous soils of coarse, medium and fine textures are tested in this study. Results show that the optimized parameters of effective soil conductivity and capillary potential can always be found. With the optimized parameters, the G-A


infiltration curve can approximate the solution of the Richards equation very well and better than by using empirical or conceptual parameters, which theoretically prove that this method is effective and efficient. Subsequently this optimization method was applied to fit G-A parameters to the field experiment data. The results show that the optimization method is well-adapted and effective for estimating G-A type infiltration cases. Key words Green-Ampt model; Levenberg-Marquardt arithmetic; optimization method


Simulation of soil water movement and deep drainage from jujube tree orchard in arid areas

SHUIXIAN WANG1, XINGUANG DONG2 & YUZHONG REN3

1College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, 730000 LanZhou, [email protected]

2Xinjiang Institute of Water Conservancy, 830000 Urumqi, China 3College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural University, 830052 Urumqi, China

Abstract In arid areas, water is especially critical for residential, industrial, and agricultural users since the water resources are limited. Consequently, how to increase irrigation efficiency is of high concern to the local agricultural authorities. In arid areas like Aksu in Xijiang Province, China, agricultural irrigation is one of the most important factors which impacts on the water content and also infiltration in the subsurface. For Jujube, the intensity and frequency of irrigation greatly influence the infiltration, which may cause excessive irrigation. As well known, the movement of water during irrigation must be recognized in order to properly evaluate current irrigation patterns and take measures to increase irrigation efficiency and reduce water losses due to evaporation and infiltration In this paper, the code, HYDRUS-1D, which can simulate water, heat, and/or solute movement in one-dimensional, variably-saturated porous media, was used to evaluate the movement of water and the characteristics of infiltration in sandy soil. The infiltration rate during irrigation is very large under traditional border irrigation conditions with a rate of 1124.0 mm/year, which accounts for 60% of the total irrigation water. Therefore, it is not suitable to adopt border irrigation if we plan to reduce infiltration and improve irrigation efficiency. Simulation suggests that furrow irrigation or micro-irrigation technologies which use high frequency and small-ration irrigation methods be used in the arid areas.Key words Jujube tree; HYDRUS model; soil water movement; numerical simulation; deep leakage; arid areas


Analysis on the regulation coefficient of Houzhai underground river system in Guizhou province, southwest China

TINGTING KE & LONGCANG SHU

State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

Abstract In southern of China, although abundant in precipitation and rich in water resources, there is still a drought problem and incompatibility between the runoff and drought-resistance ability. The reason for this problem is the regulating-storage function of the karst groundwater systems. In the study, the authors calculate the regulating coefficient for different space and time. The result shows that the regulating coefficient increases from upstream to downstream, gradually. Also, it is lower in rainy years than in dry years. The study may help to make full use of karst groundwater.


Key words Houzhai underground river system; regulating coefficient; southwest China


Effect of shallow groundwater on near-surface heat island effect

ZHI-MIN FU1 & YAN XIANG2 1College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

[email protected] Hydraulic Research Institute , Nanjing 210029, China

Abstract Aiming at the lack of groundwater effect factors in land surface process modelling, the concept of a groundwater heat island effect is put forward and studied systematically. First, based on the soil and hydrological experimental data of a typical area in North China, data mining technology is used, and shows that groundwater is one of the main factors influencing temperature changes. The concept of groundwater heat island effect is established with catastrophe theory, and the range of the affect of groundwater changes on climate change is studied. Finally, the function between temperature and groundwater level of the testing station area is simulated by a numerical model, which is used for drawing the groundwater heat island effect chart. The results show that the groundwater heat island effect can be more obviously represented by the non-peaked heat island effect chart without a cusp. Also, the over-extraction of groundwater is one of the factors influencing the urban heat island effect. It is a beneficial supplement to the research of the evolution law of the groundwater environment and climate, which is very important for the study of groundwater.Key words heat island effect; groundwater; data mining; catastrophe theory


Strategic treatment of hydrological uncertainty based on comparison of the separated runoff components

KAIRONG LIN1,2,3, QIANG ZHANG1,2, TAO JIANG1,2 & XIAOHONG CHEN1,2

1Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Chinalinkr @mail. sysu.edu.cn

2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

3State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Abstract Treatment of uncertainty of hydrological modelling and forecasting has been of theoretical and practical importance in hydrological sciences and water resources management. Based on the idea that more inputs of hydrological information can produce less uncertainty of outputs, this study aims to discuss the strategic treatment of the hydrological uncertainty by taking the TOPMODEL as a case model. The continuous base flow hydrograph separation method based on the Horton infiltration capacity curve is applied to compare and analyse the separated runoff components. The hydrological data are from the Yangping catchment located in the upper Wulang River, a branch of the Jinshajiang River in China. The results indicate improved certainty of the modelling results based on the proposed procedure.Key words hydrological modelling; TOPMODEL; uncertainty; separated runoff components



http://www.abbyy.com/Default.aspx?DN=41b9e181-d8f4-451f-96e5-697bf05ca487

Uncertainty analysis of a hydrological model using a multi-criteria likelihood measure within the GLUE method

LIRU ZHANG1,2, JIANYUN ZHANG1,2, JIUFU LIU1,2, YIQING GUAN3, GUOQING WANG1,2, YONGHUI HE1 & SIJUN DAI4

1Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, [email protected]

2Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, Nanjing, 210029, China3State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098,

China4Bureau of Yuyao Reservoir Management, Yuyao Zhejiang 315403, China

Abstract A single-objective criterion was often used to assess the adaptability of a model in the past two decades, but this methodology can not appropriately show all the characters of hydrology via observed data at the same time. The GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models is a good example. Usually the single-objective criterion is the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. In this paper, a multi-criteria likelihood measure is presented within GLUE methodology, which consists of peak forecast error, runoff error, peak-time error and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. Based on the Xinanjiang Model, it was applied to LiangHui Reservoir. Results show that this multi-criteria likelihood measure has improved the real uncertainty of the hydrological model, which is very valuable for model calibration and uncertainty study. Comparison confirms that this multi-criteria GLUE methodology is superior to the single-objective criterion GLUE methodology. Key words hydrology model; XAJ model; uncertainty analysis; multi-criteria likelihood measure


Uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL based on the GLUE method using different likelihood function

XI-LIANG YAO1, GUO-RU HUANG1 & KAI-RONG LIN2

1School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China [email protected]

2Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

Abstract The GLUE methodology is applied to uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL, with the Xixia catchment in Danjiang River as the research area. The uncertainties of different likelihood functions, model parameters and prediction interval are analysed. It is shown that the likelihood values for different functions have differences and similarities; and, the distribution of each different likelihood function and the relationship between the parameters and the likelihood measure are affected by a shaping factor. Lastly the prediction interval characteristics of the 90% confidence level at different threshold values are calculated. It is shown that the lower the threshold value is, the higher the reliability of the prediction interval, and meanwhile the larger the range of uncertainty is. It is concluded that many factors should be considered in selecting likelihood function and threshold values.Key words TOPMODEL model; uncertainty; GLUE methodology; likelihood function; prediction interval


Study on a concentration calculation method considering stochastic uncertainty


YINGNA SUN1 & XIAOFANG RUI2

1College of Water Conservancy, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150086, [email protected]

2College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract A concentration system is a stochastic system whose main sources of stochastic uncertainty are from uncertain input to the hydrological model such as hydro-meteorological data, model structure uncertainty and model parameters’ uncertainty. Based on the Nash model with parameter n = 3, using stochastic differential equations theory, the stochastic uncertainty of a concentration system resulting from model input was studied. The results showed that not only the mean solution process of the discharge process but also the deviation degree of errors, could get through the concentration calculation method considering stochastic input. And then the probability distribution of discharge process could be obtained by using the variance of discharge at each moment, which could provide the degree of uncertainty of prediction to predict the risk of loss in flood control decision-making.Key words stochastic differential equation; concentration; probability distribution; uncertainty


Simulation method on integrated risk analysis of flood disaster based on Set Pair Analysis Theory

JI-QING LI, YAN-YAN MEI, YONG WANG & CHANG-MING JISchool of Renewable Energy, North China Electrical Power University, Beijing 102206, Chinaqjli 2001@ ncepu.edu .cn

Abstract It is bound to be a trend in flood control and calamity reduction that the study direction of flood disaster system will be diverted into synthetic risk. Based on the identical-different-opposite synthetic analysis method of flood disaster risk (conceptual model) by means of Set Pair Analysis Theory, and attributing the influence of uncertain coefficient I on the risk of corresponding order and taking further appropriate expansion or transformation, this paper established the framework of a simulation model for integrated risk analysis of flood disaster composing six parts: flood risk, structure risk, control investment risk, flood plain risk, ecology risk and decision risk. This approach is for integrated risk analysis of flood disaster. Key words flood disaster; integrated risk; Set Pair Analysis


Uncertainty analysis of watershed pollution loads: application to Tangxun Lake

WEI LI, JUNYING CHU, DAYONG QIN, XIFENG WANG & HAO WANGChina Institute for Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 100038 Beijing, China

Abstract Evaluation of pollutant loads and the corresponding source apportionment is key information for water quality–quantity management of lake watersheds. Source apportionment is the estimation of contributions by different sectors or areas to the lake aquatic environment. Taking the Tangxun Lake in southeast of Wuhan as a case study, this paper first develops an integrated model to assess major pollutants of total nitrogen (TN) load coming from different land-based activities based on statistics and monitoring data. Given the uncertainty and variability in model input parameter values, watershed-scale water

pollution load calculation can result in significant uncertainty, and evaluating this uncertainty is important for policy makers who refer to the simulation output for lake watershed management decision-making. With the Monte Carlo sampling method, the possible load ranges are given and critical parameters are identified. In general, this study provides guidance for future research on parameter sensitivity and uncertainty in watershed pollution load apportionment and related management strategies. Key words water pollution load; uncertainty analysis; parameter sensitivity; HSY arithmetic


Application of chaos theory in rainfall process analysis

ZEHUA LI, ZHENCHUN HAO & SICHUN CHENState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

Abstract Understanding the intricacies of the dynamics of hydrological processes and describing them in a sophisticated way have gained increasing attention. A number of studies and approaches in the last decades have witnessed the possibility of short-term prediction and transformation of hydrological data from one scale to another. However, an important limitation of such approaches is that they treat the rainfall process as a realization of a stochastic process, and there seems to be a lack of connection between the structure of the models and the underlying physics of the rainfall process. In contrast, the recent interest in nonlinear dynamics and a rapidly growing set of tools for nonlinear time series analysis have provided brand new ideas into the working of many such complex processes. The present study makes an effort based on the notion of deterministic chaos to investigate the behaviour of the dynamics of rainfall. Daily rainfall data observed at Zhangping weather station, in Fujian province, China, is studied. Results from the correlation dimension method and nonlinear prediction method, jointly indicate that the daily rainfall process exhibits nonlinear dynamics. However, different to results from the past studies, the minimum number of variables essential is identified as 5 and the number of sufficient variables is up to 16. This strong evidence proves that rainfall analysis only based on chaotic method is inadequate without combining stochastic or statistical methods.Key words rainfall; chaos theory; correlation dimension; nonlinear prediction


The DCE method, MTSE method and DMTSE method of hydrological series extension

SHENGLI SONG1, DONG WANG1, JICHUN WU1, QINGPING ZHU2 & LING WANG3

23 Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

[email protected] Water International Engineering Consulting Co. Ltd, Bejing 100053, China3Hydrology Bureau of the Yellow River Conservancy Committee, Ministry of Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450001,

China

Abstract The traditional hydrological series Correlation Extension (CE) method takes a lot of total variation characteristics into account, and the hydrological series usually contains noise, which covers the characteristics of the hydrological series. So, the paper makes some improvements, that is, hydrological series de-noising and wavelet analysis were applied to hydrological series extension, which provided new directions for series extension. The three new methods of: De-noising Correlation Extension (DCE) method, Multiple Time Scale Extension (MTSE) method and De-noising Multiple Time Scale Extension (DMTSE) method of the hydrological series extension were advanced. And example analysis showed that

the improvements over the CE method were effective. The hydrological series de-noising was valid to improve extension accuracy; compared to the CE method and MTSE method, the extension results of MTSE method are more exact; extension accuracy of the CE method, DCE method, MTSE method and DMTSE method gradually increase in this order. Key words wavelet analysis; wavelet de-noising; correlation extension; multiple time scale extension; de-noising correlation extension; de-noising multiple time scale extension


Temperature prediction in the SiB2 model based on EnKF assimilation method

XIAOLEI FU1, HAISHEN LÜ1, YONGHUA ZHU1, YANGWEN JIA2 & DI LIU1


2 Department of Water Resources, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 20 Che-Gong-Zhuang West Road, Beijing 100044, China

Abstract The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential data assimilation method, which applies an ensemble of model states to represent the error statistics of the model estimation and to predict the error statistics continuously updated in time. It has been proved to be an efficient approach to handle strong nonlinear dynamics and large state spaces. Firstly, we simulate the temperature at each layer through the thermal model, which is a sub-model of the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB2) with field observation data. Furthermore, we modify the real value by data assimilation based on EnKF and obtain another temperature curve. Finally, the real value, open loop and EnKF assimilation of the temperature at each layer are compared and analysed. The results indicate that the EnKF method is practical and efficient for dealing with soil temperature when the external condition is relatively, stable whereas it is inaccurate in a changing external environment; for instance, the assimilation cannot reflect the trend of canopy temperature.Key words Ensemble Kalman filter; data assimilation; SiB2


Real-time flood forecast using a Support Vector Machine

XIAOLI LI1,2, HAISHEN LÜ1,TIANQING AN1, YANGWEN JIA3 & DI LIU1

1College of Science, State Key Lab of Hydrology-Water Resources & Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, 210098 China [email protected]

2College of Electronics & Information Engineering, Nanjing University of Technology, 210009, China3 Department of Water Resources, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,

20 Che-Gong-Zhuang West Road, Beijing 100044, China

Abstract An accurate real-time flood forecast is crucial for water resource planning and management, and reservoir and river regulation. The traditional flood prediction methods need to estimate the initial state of the model employed and related parameters. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is based on a structural risk minimization (SRM) principle, and has good generalization capability. In this paper, a method of SVM is exploited for real-time flood prediction, and the Xinanjiang model is also conducted to evaluate the performance. The proposed method is examined with data in the upper area of Nangao Reservoir, located in the Luo River, Guangdong Province, China, for a 10 year period, 1994–2003. The available data from four hydrological control stations is covered by daily rainfall, streamflow and evaporation. Runoff discharge predicted by the presented approach within different time spans across 2 days, 3 days, 5 days and

7 days are appraised with RMSE, and the simulations demonstrate that a moderate time span reaches the trade-off between the prediction ability and correction one.Key words flood forecast; runoff discharge; Support Vector Machine; statistical learning theory


Trivariate Gaussian copula and Student t copula in multivariate hydrological drought frequency analysis

SONG-BAI SONG 1, JU-LIANG JIN 2 & JI HE 3

24 College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China

[email protected] School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China26 School of Water Resources, North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou 450011,

China

Abstract The common copulas modelling dependence structures of higher dimensional variables may be misunderstood. In this paper, based on probability theory, a Gaussian copula and Student t copula were applied to model the multivariate drought joint probability distribution. Monthly average streamflow from Zhuangtou gauging station in Weihe Basin, China, was used to illustrate these methods. Chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer-von Mises statistic, Anderson-Darling statistic, modified weighted Watson statistic, and Liao and Shimokawa statistic were employed to test goodness-of-fit of these univariate marginal distributions. Pearson’s classical correlation coefficient rn, Spearman’s n, and Kendall’s τ under different truncation levels indicated that these three possible bivariate dependence structures are different. Based on the AIC, BIC and RMSE, they showed that the Gaussian copula has the better fit for drought joint probability distribution. A bootstrap version based on Rosenblatt’s transformation was employed to test the goodness-of-fit for Gaussian copula. The results show that applying Gaussian copula to model multivariate hydrological drought joint distribution is a feasible method.Key words meta-elliptical copulas; hydrological drought; multivariate probability distribution


Application of the new technology HHT to the forecasting of annual average streamflow near the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China

LIQING CAO1,2 & ZHENSHAN LIN1 27 Institute of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China

[email protected] Institute of hydrology and water resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract A novel multi-scale analysis method, the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), is used to analyse the annual averaged streamflow measured by Yichang hydrological station from 1900 to 2004 near the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China. The multi-scale statistic and dynamic model for annual average streamflow near the Three Gorges Dam was established based on the HHT method. The results shows that: (1)The annual average streamflow near the Three Gorges Dam can be decomposed into five timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including a 3.2 year signal, a 7.4 year signal, a 13.1 year signal, a 16.7 year signal and a 53.8 year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the 3.2 and 7.4 year timescale oscillations are the most prominent. (2) The multi-


scale statistic and dynamic model for annual average streamflow near the Three Gorges Dam based on HHT was checked by observed data from 2001 to 2004 .The results shows that the model and method are effective in practice. The relative error of the model is lower than 2.4%. The results of the study provide valuable information for operating and managing the Three Gorges hydro-power station. Key words Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD); Hilbter-Huang Transform (HHT); the Three Gorges Dam; Yangtze River; prediction of annual averaged streamflow


Frequency distribution of maximum one day and consecutive days rainfall for Mehsana district, north Gujarat, India

N. R. PATEL & D. T. SHETEWater Resources Engineering and Management Institute, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, The Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Gujarat, [email protected]

Abstract Frequency distributions are systematic arrangements of measured variates that are presupposed to be basic to analytical hydrology. Sixteen different probability distributions are tested to determine the best fit probability distribution using the Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion for 11 raingauge stations of Mehsana district. Results show that the Inverse Gaussian distribution is the best fit probability distribution for all the 11 raingauge stations in the region. The parameters, mu and lambda (i.e. scale and shape respectively) are also determined. Based on the best fit probability distribution the maximum rainfall of 84 mm, 115 mm, 134 mm, 145 mm, 155 mm, 164 mm, 171 mm and 195 mm is expected to occur on one day and consecutive 2 to 7, and 10 days, respectively, at one of the raingauge stations in Mehsana, every two years. Similarly the maximum rainfalls for different return periods for the other raingauge stations are obtained. Key words probability distributions; maximum one day; consecutive days rainfall; AIC; BIC


Flood classification based on Improved Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis

HUI GE1, ZHENPING HUANG1, KELIN LIU2 & JING LI3,4

1College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China [email protected], [email protected]

2Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China3Beijing Golden-Water Information Technology Co. Ltd, Beijing 100053, China4Bureau of Hydrology MWR, Beijing 100053, China

Abstract Flood classification is an optimization problem for discriminating the magnitude of flood intensity. Flood classification will not only affect the real-time reservoir operation, but also influence flood hazard assessment. It plays an important role in establishing the effective rules of real-time reservoir operation. Therefore, flood classification is very important both in theory and in practice. In view of the disadvantages of current flood classification methods, this paper proposed a new model called IPCA-HCA model based on improved principal component analysis (IPCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) to solve the problem of flood classification. This model firstly processes the original matrix using an improved dimensionless method, then transforms a number of original correlation indexes into a few uncorrelated principal components by principal component analysis, which is adopted to reduce the dimensionality, and finally makes flood cluster analysis by these new principal components. In this paper,


taking Yichang hydrological station in Hubei province as an example, the IPCA-HCA model is applied to classify several historical flood processes. The results show that the classification with IPCA-HCA model is obviously better than the traditional method. The IPCA-HCA model proposed in this paper is characterized by its reasonable structure, simple calculation, intuitive discrimination and better feasibility, and is an effective flood classification method.Key words flood classification; improved principal component analysis; principal component; hierarchical cluster analysis


Study on calculation method for short duration probable maximum precipitation

GUOFANG LI1, XINYI XIANG2, FEIWU YE1, BIN QI1 & JIAPENG HUA1

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, Chinaliguofang @ hhu.edu.cn

2 School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

Abstract Estimating probable maximum flood from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is one important method to determine design flood for high risk projects, such as large-scale reservoir project and nuclear power projects, the failure of which may have severe consequences. In the past several decades, calculation methods for long duration area PMP have been regarded as the research focus, but short duration point PMP has not been of concern. Because short duration PMP is an indispensable foundation for flood control and drainage design of high risk projects in small watersheds, a calculation method for short duration PMP is discussed in this paper. A new method was proposed, the procedure of which was calculating 24-h PMP first, then deducing short duration PMP through storm formulation. This method was applied to calculate short duration PMP for a proposed project in Guangdong Province, China. It was found that the method proposed was effective for the calculation of short duration PMP if short duration data of an extraordinary storm were unavailable, and was easy to operate with reliable results.Key words probable maximum precipitation; precipitable water; storm transposition; short duration; indices of storm


Comparison of the wavelet characters of various noises by discrete wavelet transform

YAN-FANG SANG, DONG WANG & JI-CHUN WUState Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, [email protected]

Abstract In the present paper, firstly Monte-Carlo simulation was operated to analyse the noises following various probability distributions by using discrete wavelet transform (DWT); specifically, three indexes of noises’ wavelet coefficients, namely mean value (MV), absolute maximum value (AMV) and amplitude value (AV), were calculated, and their varying rules were analysed and compared. Then, on the basis of these results, three key issues concerning wavelet threshold de-noising (WTD) were discussed, and the suggestions and approaches to solve them were put forward; they concern the wavelet choice, reasonability of thresholding rules and thresholds’ relation. In conclusion, according to these proposed suggestions, the de-noising results of hydrological series data by WTD can be improved.Key words time series analysis; noise; wavelet analysis; probability distribution; threshold; Monte-Carlo simulation



Probabilistic forecasting model for annual runoff based on bootstrap

YULIANG ZHOU1, PING ZHOU2, JULIANG JIN1, ZONGZHI WANG3, LIANG CHENG1, LIBING ZHANG1 & LI LIU1

1 College of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;[email protected]

2 Department of Physics and Electronic Science, Chaohu University, Chaohu 238000, China;3 China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research

Institute, Nanjing 210029, China

Abstract Annual runoff is influenced by many factors, and its forecasting value has some uncertainty. Probabilistic forecasting of annual runoff is more scientific and reasonable. A similarity forecasting model for annual runoff was established first, and then the bootstrap method was used to generate annual runoff sample sets on random re-sampling of model error. Based on the forecasting model and the re-sampling sample sets of annual runoff, the probabilistic forecasting model for annual runoff on bootstrap method was proposed, and named PFAR-B. The application results of the proposed model to forecast annual runoff of Yili River basin in Xinjiang show that the proposed model is of high precision, the observed value of annual runoff is contained in the 90% confidence interval of forecasting value of annual runoff, and the estimate of confidence interval is also robust. In view of its clear physical concept, easy implementation, and high prediction accuracy, the proposed model has application value in the hydrology and water resources prediction.Keywords annual runoff; probabilistic forecasting; bootstrap method; similarity; genetic algorithm


Study of small time-scale rainfall amount distribution: a case study on Xiaheyan Station, the Yellow River Basin

GENFA CHEN, RUI YE, DAYONG QIN & HAO WANGDepartment of Water resources Research, China Institute of Water resources and Hydro power Research, 100038 Beijing, [email protected]

Abstract Rainfall is the most important resource of regional water resources; also it is a key part of the global water cycle. Rainfall data is the crucial input of all hydrological models. Usually the rainfall data that are credible and easily obtained are daily rainfall data. How to downscale daily rainfall amounts to small time-scale amounts is an important point in distributed hydrological models. The two widely-used methods, random distribution pattern method and triangular distribution pattern method, based on no physical background or statistical basis, perform not as well as we expected. A reasonable method should be based on appropriate rainfall amount distribution patterns. This study investigated the real distribution of 2-h duration rainfall amounts using the long-term rainfall records from 1951 to 1997 of the Xiaheyan hydrological station of the Yellow River basin. The rainfall records were grouped into five categories according to the daily rainfall amount: 0–2 mm, 2–10 mm, 10–20 mm, 20–50 mm and 50–100 mm. For each category, statistical analysis showed that rainfall amount distribution patterns were close to the Pearson-III distribution. But different categories had different Pearson-III parameters. Thus new methods of downscaling daily rainfall amounts could be developed, This would significantly improve the accuracy of distributed hydrological models. Furthermore, this study provided a new tool to evaluate global climate change influence on regional rainfall and water resources . Key words distribution pattern; fitting method; Pearson-III distribution; rainfall; Yellow River Basin



Urban water demand prediction model based on blind number theory

SHUHONG MO, HAINI DUAN & BING SHEN Xi’an University of Technology, Key Laboratory of North-West Water Resources and Ecology Environment of Education Ministry, Xi’an 710048, [email protected]

Abstract Under rapid social and economic development, the urban water consuming system is full of uncertainties. In this study, by analysing the driving factors leading to the uncertainties, the method of structure analysis is combined with unascertained mathematics to develop an uncertain urban water demand forecasting model based on blind number theory. A case study is provided to forecast the domestic water demand in Baoji city by the developed methodology, the results indicated that reasonable solution is reliable and conforms more to objective reality, which shows the developed method is feasible in studying urban water supply and demand.Key words urban water demand; prediction; blind number


Reliability of statistical tests for detecting changes in extreme precipitation

KEJING LIU & WEN WANG State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

Abstract Change detection is an important issue in hydrometeorology research; however, the effects of the size of data records and the intensity of changes on the reliability of test results are not well recognized. The effectiveness of several statistical tests, including Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the regional average MK (RAMK) test for secular changes, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test for step changes with known change points, and Bayesian change point (BCP) test for unknown change points, are investigated in the present study for detecting changes in simulated extreme precipitation index series in different situations. The results show that, for secular changes, the power of MK test varies with the type of index series, size of the series and intensity of trend. RAMK test is more reliable than the MK test for detecting secular changes, and the power of RAMK depends on the length of series and the number of stations in a region. For step changes, the KS test performs better than the BCP test. The power of the KS test and BCP test, especially the former one, is also related to the type of index series, size of the series and the magnitude of step change. Changes in precipitation in a wet region are generally easier to be detected than those in a drier region.Key words extreme climate indices; secular change; step change; change detection


Assimilating surface soil moisture to estimate profile soil water content using EnKF and Hydrus-1D Model

XIAOHUA KOU & WEN WANG State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract Soil moisture status in the root zone is an important component of the water cycle. The numerical one-dimensional vadose zone hydrology model (HYDRUS-1D) is widely used to depict the distribution of soil moisture in the root zone. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the performance of updating soil profile water content by assimilating the surface soil moisture into the HYDRUS-1D model at point scale using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique. The results indicate that, surface soil moisture estimation can be improved significantly by using a data assimilation method when there is precipitation, but no improvement is achieved when there is no precipitation; in deep layers, the soil moisture does not vary significantly with time and therefore the effect of assimilation is limited.Key words data assimilation; Hydrus-1D; EnKF; soil moisture


Research of the relationship between the water area and water level of Poyang Lake based on remote sensing image

LI REN1,2, XINYI XIANG3 & JIANJUN NI4

1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, China

2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

3School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China4College of Computer and Information, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China

Abstract With the development and application of remote sensing technology it has become a focus to extract water body information from satellite remote-sensing images for large-area water body identification and flood disaster monitoring. At the same time, water extraction methods e.g. threshold method, chroma discrimination method, ration method, spectrum-photometric method and spectral mixture analysis method were also applied. Compared with several commonly used satellites, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) had many advantages, e.g. easily accessible data, wide waveband range, large coverage, short period and superior continuity. What is more, data from MODIS can be obtained free of charge. The characteristics listed above led to the feasibility and popularity of MODIS in water body identification, which has great practical value in real-time water body dynamic monitoring and flood disaster emergency treatment. As the largest freshwater lake in China, Poyang Lake is also threatened by frequent flood occurrence. It is necessary to extract the water area and water level information from Poyang Lake through remote-sensing images automatically, rapidly and accurately to realize the real-time monitoring of spatial dynamic variations of the water body in Poyang Lake. In this research, water information was extracted from MODIS remote-sensing images firstly. The water body model was then constructed by normalized difference vegetation index to calculate the water area values in different periods. Remote sensing measurement results were combined with the statistical data about water area and water level of Poyang Lake in previous years, and the water area-water level mathematical model with high accuracy was established. It provides a feasible tool for the real time monitoring of water body spatial variations in Poyang Lake through remote-sensing images, which will play an important role in flood monitoring and flood prevention for lakes and reservoirs.Key words Poyang Lake; MODIS images; water area; water level


Soil moisture estimation using MODIS data over the head

water of West Liaohe Basin, China

XIAOLI YANG1, LILIANG REN1, DONGLAI JIAO2 & SHANHU JIANG1


2 School of Geography and Biological Information, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China.

Abstract Soil moisture (SM) stored near the land surface controls the surface hydrological processes, especially runoff generation, soil evaporation and plant transpiration. Soil moisture is highly variable in both time and space, which leads to individual point measurements rarely representing the spatial average of even small areas. In this paper the spatial pattern and temporal evolution in TVDI has been analysed using 28 MODIS images of 2008 in Laohahe basin. Based on the so-called Ts/NDVI space in terms of surface soil moisture status and combined with the observed data, a profile estimation algorithm of relative soil moisture (RSM) was developed from MODIS data. Then we apply to the whole study area to estimate surface soil moisture. The result shows that this method can estimate the spatial distribution and temporal variation of soil moisture content over the soil profile from infrequent measurements of near-surface soil moisture (0–10 cm). The simulated RSM good well with the observed data (MAE = 16.86%). Finally, the spatio-temporal characteristics of RSM were analysed.Key words s oil moisture; MODIS; head water; TVDI; remote sensing


Crop classification using per-field method based on ETM+ image and MODIS EVI time series analysis

RU AN1, WEI LI1, HUILIN WANG2 & RENZONG RUAN1

1 School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, no.1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China [email protected]

2 School of Geography and Sea Sciences, Nanjing University, no.22 Hankou Road, Nanjing 210093, China

Abstract It is important to derive crop type information for the assessment of cropland evapotranspiration and water management for an irrigation area. Remote sensing is one of the most valuable technologies for this purpose. In this paper, the identification of crops using ETM+, MODIS EVI time series data and GIS field border data was investigated. Firstly, spectral response signature of crops and MODIS EVI time series features were analysed in detail to supply knowledge for further classification. Secondly, field block objects were formed by segmenting ETM+ images in terms of GIS field border. The Standard Nearest Neighbor Fuzzy Classification algorithm was applied for an initial per-field classification based on ETM+ and MODIS EVI time series data. Then, the initial classification result was improved with the aid of the growth phenology of different crops based on MODIS EVI time series data and their combination. Finally, accuracy assessment of classification result was performed. It is shown that the crop classification accuracy has been improved by >20% compared with that of the supervised maximum likelihood classification method and a per-field method in which a field block is assigned as the dominant crop class occurring in this field block. The result indicates that the method proposed in the paper is effective for crop classification. Key word per-field; MODIS EVI time series; crop phenology; crop classification; ETM+


Assessment of Land Surface Diversions from water balance


and remote sensing data

MASOUD EDRAKI1, MOHSIN HAFEEZ2, JOSH SIXSMITH2, UMAIR RABBANI2 & YANN CHEMIN3

1Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 2334, Canberra, Australia Capital Territory 2601, Australia [email protected]

2 International Centre of Water for Food Security (IC Water), Building 24, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, New South Wales 2678, Australia

3 IWMI, 127 Sunil Mw, Pelawatte, Sri Lanka

Abstract In the northern catchments of the Murray Darling Basin of Australia, a significant proportion of total water diversions are from interception of flood water and overland flow during sporadic storm events. These diversions (known as Land Surface Diversions or LSD) prevent runoff from entering natural watercourses or into the flood plain. Due to adverse consequences of prolonged drought in the Murray Darling Basin, the authorities have imposed a “Cap” on all forms of land surface diversions in the basin. A project was established in 2008 to compute LSD of six pilot farms to develop a farm water balance model and compute the LSD using a Remote Sensing (RS) technique coupled with on-ground hydrologic parameters which were collected through a concurrent monitoring project, which also gave an independent assessment of LSD in order to validate the LSD by the remote sensing project. This paper reports on the results of LSD estimations for summer and winter crops in the pilot farms during 2007 and 2009 cropping seasons.Key words Land Surface Diversion; water balance; Murray Darling Basin; evapotranspiration; remote sensing


Conceptual hierarchical calibration of the Xinanjiang model

QIAN LI1,2, WEIMIN BAO1,2, BO ZHANG1,2 & DAQI KONG1,2

1State Key Lab.of Hydrology-water Resources and Hydraulic Eng., Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract The successful application of a CRR model depends on how well it is calibrated. In recent years, with increasing capacity of computational power, automated approaches to calibration have received much attention. Some algorithms are sophisticated enough, however, due to poor consideration of the physical meaning of the parameter and the relationship between model parameters; the optimized results are often unreasonable and unique. In order to avoid such problems, a conceptual hierarchical optimization procedure to calibrate the Xinanjiang model is suggested. This procedure introduces the hierarchical-multilevel approach to the calibration of the Xinanjiang model; there are eight sensitive parameters distributed over four layers and four objective functions are used for different layers. Multi-layer and multi-objective functions can make the optimization work simpler and more effective. Then in this study, four watersheds located in southeastern China, with a 15-year historical record, were used to test this procedure. The results show that relatively stable and physically reasonable optimum values of parameters of the Xinanjiang model are obtained in the application of this work by adopting the proposed optimization procedure. The layered calibration procedures using four objective functions with different structure avoid finding the globally optimal parameter in the high dimension space and improve the hydrological information utilization efficiency. The practices indicate the proposed procedure can help to conceptualize the calibration process of the CRR model to some extent.Key words Xinanjiang model; conceptual calibration; hierarchical-multilevel; multi-objectives


Hillslope as basic discretized unit: the scale effects on its

geometric factors

JINTAO LIU1,2,3, XI CHEN1,3 & JICHUN WU2


2Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China3Department of College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract Hillslope geometric factors include width function, curvature, slope and length, etc. In this paper, those factors (e.g. width function and curvature) changing with hillslope scales were discussed. A digital drainage network automatic extraction tool, DigitalHydro V1.0, was used for deriving hillslope geometric factors. Through sub-division of the hillslope into two types as the “headwater hillslope” and the “sideslope hillslope”, the hillslope width function and curvature distribution were derived. The shape for hillslope width functions is generally parabolic for both the headwater hillslopes and the sideslope hillslopes. It was found that the peak values for the hillslope width functions will decline and the PDF curve is then flattened as the hillslope scale becomes larger. As the largest headwater hillslope, the averaged shape for the whole catchment is divergent. Hereafter, the overall shape changing with the scale for both types of hillslopes was discussed. It was suggested that the general shape of the sideslope hillslopes is concave and divergent in all the scales listed in Table 1. For headwater hillslopes, the average shape is convex and convergent as the scale is smaller than a critical value, e.g. 0.70 km2 for the profile curvature or 1.00 km2 for the contour curvature. When the scale of the hillslope becomes larger than the critical value, the results are reversed.Key words hillslope; geometric factors; scale; width function; curvature


Parameterization of land surface processes in the Taihu basin

XINGCAI LIU, ZONGXUE XU, LIU LIU & DEPENG ZUOCollege of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, [email protected]

Abstract A simplified grid-based land surface model is proposed to estimate actual evapotranspiration, runoff and soil moisture in the Taihu basin. This model involves influence of land use types on land surface processes, and particularly depicts the impact of crop on evapotranspiration. Application was carried out in the Taihu basin in 1981 and several point measurements of evaporation and soil moisture were used to assess the model performance. Spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration, runoff depth and soil moisture in the Taihu basin were also mapped. Results show that the model represents land surface evapotranspiration well, and to some degree captures the variation of soil moisture. However, further improvement is needed to integrate the impact of SVATs-based vegetation types to better represent the comprehensive land surface characteristics.Key words evapotranspiration; runoff; soil moisture; land surface model; Taihu basin


Hydrological simulation coupling flood and tide in tidal rivers

XIAOQIN ZHANG1, WEIMIN BAO1, LIN HU2, BO ZHANG1 & SAIFENG LU1

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, [email protected]

2 Zhejiang Hydrology Bureau, Hangzhou 310009, China

Abstract Flow dynamics in tidal rivers is complicated under the combined effect of upstream flood and downstream tide. Based on the assumption that flow in a whole tidal reach can be separated into flood component and tide component, flood routing equations affected by tide, tide propagation equations affected by flood, and an approach of coupling flood and tide in the flow continuity equation are proposed. By combining these proposed equations a 1-dimensional hydrodynamic model for tidal rivers (the CFT model) was established. The application in the tidal reach of Changjiang River shows that the CFT model can produce better results than the model based on the Saint-Venant equations (the SVN model). Key words tidal river; whole tidal reach; flow simulation; combined effect of flood and tide


Application of the Vertical-mixed Runoff Model and real-time flood correction method in a semi-arid basin

HAIYING HU1, WEIMIN BAO2 & GUORU HUANG1

1 School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, [email protected]

2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract The Vertical-mixed Runoff Model, which considers both the infiltration-excess and saturation-excess mechanism, is presented. The proposed model was tested using the hydrological and meteorological data from a semi-arid reservoir basin named Rizhao, with an area of 548 km2. Moreover, an auto regression updating model was used for the real-time flood correction in every interval of the calculation. By considering many criteria, including runoff, flood peak, efficiency coefficient, and number of efficient floods, the results are in good agreement with the observations, and the real-time correction technology for flood hydrograph can further improve the forecast accuracy. Therefore, the Vertical-mixed Runoff Model combined with the real-time flood correction method is suitable for the semi-arid basin.Key words flood forecasting; Vertical-mixed Runoff Model; auto regression updating model; Rizhao basin


Study on the calculating method of flood drainage flow in riverside urban areas

JUN LIU, CHENG GAO & FAHONG ZHANGState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Chinalj hohai @ 163 .c om

Abstract There is no reliable method to calculate the drainage capacity of pump stations in riverside cities. The drainage boundary of pump stations, which is complex in the river-network calculation process, is calculated here. The river-network calculation is made, assuming an initial value of the pump station’s drainage capacity, and taking into account the water level of city river network as a controlling condition to obtain final drainage flow of the pump station. Due to the different number of pump stations, different ways of assuming initial values and calculation block diagrams are given to enhance the applicability of the method. The method is applied in Hexi New Region in Nanjing City, and its result is scientific and feasible. A new way is provided for the riverside cities to calculate the drainage capacity of pump stations and drainage modulus.Key words riverside city; drainage capacity; drainage modulus; unsteady flow; drainage boundary; trial calculation



A trial of ensemble flood simulation experiment based upon TIGGE data with a coupled atmosphere–hydrology model

ZIYAN ZHENG1,2, WANCHANG ZHANG3 & JINGWEN XÜ4

1Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [email protected]

2Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3Center for Hydro-Sciences Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China 4 College of Resources and Environment, Sichuan Agricultural University, Yaan 625014, China

Abstract As one of the most fearful consequences of torrential rain, the short-term flood with various forming factors, has multiple relations to atmospheric processes. So the hydrologic parameterization should be described precisely in the land surface model (LSM), which could then be coupled to the numeric weather prediction model (NWPM) to do flood forecasting. In this study a hydrologic model XXT was developed by introducing the water table depth into the soil moisture storage capacity distribution curve (SMSCC) and then integrated with the simple architecture of TOPMODEL. Then XXT was validated and finally coupled to the Noah LSM and Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System (GRAPES). Moreover, due to the uncertainties from the non-linearities of atmosphere and the simplification of models, traditional deterministic forecasts can not satisfy the operational need. A trial experiment of ensemble simulation with coupled model was undertaken based on the TIGGE datasets during a torrential event. The results show the reasonable distribution of precipitation and runoff depth of ensemble mean value. The simulated flood discharges described the flood process generally. On the whole, the trial taken in this paper provides a new approach for flood forecasting and risk evaluation.Key words atmosphere-hydrology model; ensemble; XXT; TIGGE; precipitation; runoff depth; flood discharge


Optimal flood control operation for the Three Gorges and Qingjiang cascade reservoirs

SHENGLIAN GUO, YU LI & JIONGHONG CHENState Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, [email protected]

Abstract Both separate and joint flood control operation models for the Three Gorges and Qingjiang cascade reservoirs are proposed. The models were solved by the modified progressive optimality algorithm according to the procedure of optimization-verification-adjustment and its constraint conditions were treated by dynamic penalty function. Four typical years of 1954, 1981, 1982 and 1998 were selected to derive the design flood hydrographs for the corresponding return periods by the peak and volume amplitude method. The conventional, separate and joint cascade operation flood control models were performed for these reservoirs. The results show that the separate cascade operation gives full play to the role of flood control storage compensation between cascade reservoirs, while joint cascades operation can also perform storage compensation between two cascades. The Jingjiang River flood control standards can be raised to 118-year and 136-year design floods based on 1982 typical year, and 150-year and 168-year design floods based on the average of four typical years, respectively. Key words cascade reservoirs; storage compensation; flood control operation; optimal algorithm



Application of a bi-directional Muskingum water-stage routing model in Caoejiang River, China

SIMIN QU1,2, YANPING CUI1,2, HAIXIANG JI3, HAN LIU1,2, WEIMIN BAO1,2, PENG SHI1,2 & WEI SI1,2

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China [email protected]

2College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China3Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology, the Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210012, China

Abstract Caoejiang River is a tidal river and its hydrological system is unique as the water-stage continually changes under the interaction of upper reach flood waves and downstream tidal waves. Consequently, the calculation of water-stage in the cross-section of Caoejiang River is very complex. The bi-directional Muskingum water-stage routing model separates the hydrologic processes of the tidal river into upper reach flood and downstream tidal waves, respectively. The Muskingum water-stage routing method was first used to calculate the propagation of the flood and tidal waves and then routed stages are summed by using different weight factors. All the parameters used in the model can be adjusted automatically or determined manually. The model was applied in the Caoejiang River, China, to evaluate the tidal effect on the streamflow of different sections. The results show that the model can be applied successfully with high accuracy and reliability for the water-stage forecasting in Caoejiang River, and few parameters are needed for model calibration, displaying the relative advantage of the model.Key words Caoejiang River; tidal river; flood wave; tide wave; Muskingum water-stage routing method


Spatial variation of soil moisture and its factors in Jilin province during 2005

BAISHA WENG1,2, DENGHUA YAN2, WEIHUA XIAO2, ZHIXUAN ZHAO1,2, CHENG ZHANG2 & TIANLING QIN2

1School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, [email protected]

2Water Resources Department, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Abstract The aim of this article is to analysis the spatial variation of soil moisture and its factors in Jilin province using GIS and CANOCO on 15 April 2005. It comes to the conclusion that the soil moisture of Song-Liao plain in western Jilin province, China, presents a spatial variation characteristic that decreases generally from the southeast to the northwest. Affected by the land use types of forestland, paddy field and glebe, and the soil types of meadow soil and chernozem, the time-period end soil moisture content is positively correlated with time-period initial soil moisture, precipitation, relative humidity and vapour pressure, and is negatively correlated with sunshine duration, saturated vapour pressure, temperature and wind velocity. Synthesizing the meanings of PCA (Principal Component Analysis), along the first ordination axis from left to right, the soil moisture increases with the increase of the altitude and precipitation, and the decrease of temperature and sunshine duration. On the basis of the relationship of the post-ordination vector, it is clear that time-period end soil moisture has closest correlation with precipitation volume in forestlands, time-period initial soil moisture in paddy fields and meadow soil areas, relative humidity in glebe fields, and vapour pressure in chernozem areas.

Key words soil moisture; spatial variation; land use patterns; soil types; influencing factors


Development and application of a scaling model for characterising topographic features in hydrological simulation

JING XU1,2, LILIANG REN1, FEI YUAN1 & XIAOFAN LIU1

29 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

X ujing @nju.edu.cn 2 Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

Abstract The effect of DEM scale on upslope contributing area, the effect of DEM scale on slope and their cross-effect cause an increase of topographic index when the DEM resolution become coarser. This makes it difficult to identify model parameters with a different resolution TOPMODEL, and completely different and erroneous hydrological simulations will be produced with TOPMODEL when the parameters calibrated at one scale are used for making predictions at a different DEM scale. To solve this problem, scale laws that govern the relationship between the resolution of digital elevation data and geomorphic parameters of the topographic index were analysed and translated into an effective hydrological model to match the scales of model application and parameter identification. Slope is a function of the measurement scale when topography is fractal in a specified range of measurement scale. In this scale range, the fractal method is applied to remove the effect of DEM resolution. The resolution factor is introduced for accounting the scale effects on upslope contributing area per unit contour length. This method can successfully derive a topographic index distribution of a fine-resolution DEM by using only a coarse-resolution DEM. The method for downscaling the topographic index distribution is then coupled with TOPMODEL to develop the Scale Invariant TOPMODEL and is applied in the Baohe River basin. It is shown that the simulated runoff from the downscaled TOPMODEL applied at 900 and 1800 m resolution, with the same set of effective parameter values derived from the 100 m resolution DEM, matched the simulated runoff in the 100 m DEM resolution TOPMODEL and fit well with the observed runoff of high efficiency without recalibration. It can be concluded that the Scale Invariant TOPMODEL is a powerful tool to reduce the uncertainty result from DEM scale effect.Key words TOPMODEL; DEM scale; fractal; parameter identification

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