Hydrogen Production Hydrogen Production Decisions: Decision Decisions: Decision Making in View of Making in View of

Differing Stakeholder Differing Stakeholder PreferencesPreferences

Elvin YuzugulluElvin YuzugulluDoctoral CandidateDoctoral Candidate

The George Washington UniversityThe George Washington University

Problem StatementProblem Statement

Hydrogen produced via different methods Hydrogen produced via different methods with varying requirements and with varying requirements and consequencesconsequences

Decision makers with diverse interests and Decision makers with diverse interests and values involvedvalues involved

Currently no structured approach to Currently no structured approach to evaluate optionsevaluate options

Complexities and disagreements may Complexities and disagreements may hinder transition to the Hydrogen Economyhinder transition to the Hydrogen Economy

Solution: Multiple Criteria Decision Solution: Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) ModelMaking (MCDM) Model

Design, evaluate, and test decision-aiding Design, evaluate, and test decision-aiding model to determine:model to determine: Capability of model to facilitate convergence Capability of model to facilitate convergence

of divergent viewpointsof divergent viewpoints How robust selection among hydrogen How robust selection among hydrogen

production alternatives is, with respect to production alternatives is, with respect to conflicting stakeholder preferences and conflicting stakeholder preferences and interestsinterests

Effectiveness of model in facilitating hydrogen Effectiveness of model in facilitating hydrogen production decisionsproduction decisions

Value of ResearchValue of Research Complex issues involved regarding hydrogen Complex issues involved regarding hydrogen

production optionsproduction options Impacts of decisions can vary from beneficial to Impacts of decisions can vary from beneficial to

harmfulharmful Critical decisions need to be madeCritical decisions need to be made Need informed and structured decision making, Need informed and structured decision making,

with all relevant factors considered and an effort with all relevant factors considered and an effort towards consensustowards consensus

Decision-aiding framework developed will Decision-aiding framework developed will serve as a valuable tool to aid decision serve as a valuable tool to aid decision makers with hydrogen decision problemsmakers with hydrogen decision problems

MethodologyMethodology

1.1. Model Design & Development:Model Design & Development:

Identification of diverse set of decision Identification of diverse set of decision

makersmakers

Interactive and Interactive and anonymous anonymous format method format method

to obtain judgments from decision makersto obtain judgments from decision makers

Development of an “objectives hierarchy”Development of an “objectives hierarchy”

Selection of criteriaSelection of criteria

MethodologyMethodologycontinued..continued..

2.2. Model Application, Assessment & Model Application, Assessment &

Testing:Testing: Baseline importance comparison of criteriaBaseline importance comparison of criteria

11stst convergence analysis convergence analysis

22ndnd convergence analysis convergence analysis

33rdrd convergence analysis convergence analysis

Analysis of resultsAnalysis of results

Model Design & DevelopmentModel Design & Development - Identification of Decision Makers - - Identification of Decision Makers -

Initially, a short list of potential individuals Initially, a short list of potential individuals to contact was developed, based on to contact was developed, based on referrals by colleagues and literature referrals by colleagues and literature research.research.

Purpose of study, scope, and process Purpose of study, scope, and process explained and invited to take part in explained and invited to take part in researchresearch

Model Design & DevelopmentModel Design & Development - Identification of Decision Makers – - Identification of Decision Makers –

continued..continued.. 12 individuals from following interest groups 12 individuals from following interest groups

participated in research:participated in research: Hydrogen production companiesHydrogen production companies Automotive manufacturersAutomotive manufacturers Oil & gas companiesOil & gas companies GovernmentGovernment State energy officesState energy offices National labsNational labs Utility companiesUtility companies Environmental organizationsEnvironmental organizations Infrastructure developersInfrastructure developers Renewable energy financing companiesRenewable energy financing companies

Fuel cell companies, consulting companies, Fuel cell companies, consulting companies, international organizations, and universities were international organizations, and universities were also contacted, but were not able to participate. also contacted, but were not able to participate.

Model Design & DevelopmentModel Design & Development - Method to Obtain Judgments - - Method to Obtain Judgments -

““Delphi” technique usedDelphi” technique used

Enables idea generation and interaction Enables idea generation and interaction

via several rounds of via several rounds of anonymousanonymous surveys surveys

Do not need to be in the same place at the Do not need to be in the same place at the

same time same time

Reduces group pressure involved in Reduces group pressure involved in

expressing opinionsexpressing opinions

Model Design & DevelopmentModel Design & Development--Objectives Hierarchy Development & Selection of Criteria-Objectives Hierarchy Development & Selection of Criteria-

Objectives Hierarchy: Objectives Hierarchy: main goal --- objectives (to main goal --- objectives (to accomplish goal) --- sub-objectives --- attributes accomplish goal) --- sub-objectives --- attributes (measure for achieving objectives)(measure for achieving objectives)

Based on literature survey, an illustrative objectives Based on literature survey, an illustrative objectives hierarchy (with environmental and cost criteria) hierarchy (with environmental and cost criteria) presented to decision makerspresented to decision makers

11stst survey: Decision makers asked to comment on this survey: Decision makers asked to comment on this hierarchy (agree completely, agree but have hierarchy (agree completely, agree but have additions/changes, give completely different set of additions/changes, give completely different set of criteria, or agree but structure differently. criteria, or agree but structure differently.

Model Design & DevelopmentModel Design & Development--Objectives Hierarchy Development & Selection of Criteria-Objectives Hierarchy Development & Selection of Criteria-

continued…continued…

Feedback from decision makers analyzed and organized to provide Feedback from decision makers analyzed and organized to provide

an objectives hierarchy inclusive of all comments receivedan objectives hierarchy inclusive of all comments received

This hierarchy sent back to decision makers, along with original This hierarchy sent back to decision makers, along with original

responsesresponses

Two more rounds of similar interaction with decision makersTwo more rounds of similar interaction with decision makers

Reasonable agreement reached on set of criteria in the objectives Reasonable agreement reached on set of criteria in the objectives

hierarchyhierarchy

This objectives hierarchy organized once again to determine This objectives hierarchy organized once again to determine

optimum level of detail (criteria cannot be too general - but too optimum level of detail (criteria cannot be too general - but too

much detail diverts from main point)much detail diverts from main point)

Final Objectives HierarchyFinal Objectives Hierarchy

Model Application,Model Application,Assessment & TestingAssessment & Testing

- Criteria Importance Comparisons -- Criteria Importance Comparisons - Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) used: pairwise comparison of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) used: pairwise comparison of

relative importance of criteriarelative importance of criteria Scale if 1 (equal importance) to 9 (extremely more important)Scale if 1 (equal importance) to 9 (extremely more important) Baseline importance comparison:Baseline importance comparison: Decision makers provided Decision makers provided

judgments on pairwise comparison of criteria in objectives hierarchyjudgments on pairwise comparison of criteria in objectives hierarchy 11stst Convergence Analysis: Convergence Analysis: Comparison results from baseline Comparison results from baseline

comparison plotted in frequency diagrams, with group average, to comparison plotted in frequency diagrams, with group average, to show group judgment distribution. This info sent to decision makers show group judgment distribution. This info sent to decision makers to review. Structured phone interview to:to review. Structured phone interview to:

Clarify definitions of criteriaClarify definitions of criteria Obtain decision maker line of reasoning for judgments in previous round Obtain decision maker line of reasoning for judgments in previous round

(baseline importance comparison)(baseline importance comparison)

Model Application,Model Application,Assessment & TestingAssessment & Testing

- Criteria Importance Comparisons –- Criteria Importance Comparisons –continued…continued…

22ndnd Convergence Analysis: Convergence Analysis: Changes in group Changes in group distribution and mean (due to changes in distribution and mean (due to changes in judgments in previous round), along with judgments in previous round), along with reasoning provided in summary bullet points, reasoning provided in summary bullet points, presented to decision makers once again to presented to decision makers once again to review and re-consider judgments in light of the review and re-consider judgments in light of the new information and group positionnew information and group position

33rdrd Convergence Analysis: Convergence Analysis: Similar to 2 Similar to 2ndnd convergence analysis. Number of changes in convergence analysis. Number of changes in judgments dropped considerably, indicating judgments dropped considerably, indicating stopping point. stopping point.

Model Application,Model Application,Assessment & TestingAssessment & Testing

- Analysis of Results –- Analysis of Results –

Development of Input Data:Development of Input Data: 7 alternative hydrogen production options (to 7 alternative hydrogen production options (to

represent both fossil and renewable hydrogen represent both fossil and renewable hydrogen production)production)

Criteria weights (from all rounds of Criteria weights (from all rounds of interactions with decision makers)interactions with decision makers)

Performance of alternatives on criteria Performance of alternatives on criteria (obtained from literature)(obtained from literature)

Model Application,Model Application,Assessment & TestingAssessment & Testing

- Analysis of Results –- Analysis of Results –continued…continued…

Optimization: Optimization: Input data (alternatives, weights, performance data) Input data (alternatives, weights, performance data)

used as input to model methodology to determine used as input to model methodology to determine rankings of alternatives (for each decision maker)rankings of alternatives (for each decision maker)

Performed for baseline comparison and final Performed for baseline comparison and final convergence analysis results (weights)convergence analysis results (weights)

Goal: to determine convergence based on changes in Goal: to determine convergence based on changes in alternative rankingsalternative rankings

Statistical Analysis: Correlated samples t-Test Statistical Analysis: Correlated samples t-Test done on weights from done on weights from allall rounds of surveys to rounds of surveys to determine if there was significant change or notdetermine if there was significant change or not

Conclusions & RecommendationsConclusions & Recommendations

Decision-aiding model developed serves as tool for Decision-aiding model developed serves as tool for decision makers to:decision makers to: Consider all relevant criteria in a structured mannerConsider all relevant criteria in a structured manner Eliminate misconceptionsEliminate misconceptions Understand perspectives of othersUnderstand perspectives of others Improve the decision making processImprove the decision making process

Contrary to initial expectations, objectives hierarchy Contrary to initial expectations, objectives hierarchy development phase had much more significant effect on development phase had much more significant effect on convergence of opinionconvergence of opinion

Some more convergence in subsequent weight Some more convergence in subsequent weight adjustment steps (based on definitional clarifications and adjustment steps (based on definitional clarifications and consideration of others’ perspectives), but not as consideration of others’ perspectives), but not as significantsignificant

Conclusions & RecommendationsConclusions & Recommendationscontinued…continued…

Objectives hierarchy development:Objectives hierarchy development: Enhanced decision makers’ understanding of the Enhanced decision makers’ understanding of the

issuesissues Helped clarify and structure their thinkingHelped clarify and structure their thinking Facilitated convergence of opinionFacilitated convergence of opinion

Decision-aiding model developed may be applied to any Decision-aiding model developed may be applied to any type and scale of decision on hydrogen production type and scale of decision on hydrogen production alternatives (especially when data on actual project alternatives (especially when data on actual project alternatives are available), such as selecting among:alternatives are available), such as selecting among: Small-scale optionsSmall-scale options National policy optionsNational policy options Options for specific locationsOptions for specific locations

Bio SketchBio SketchElvin YuzugulluElvin Yuzugullu

B.Sc., Environmental Engineering – YB.Sc., Environmental Engineering – Yιιldldιιz Technical University, z Technical University,

Istanbul, TurkeyIstanbul, Turkey

M.Sc., Environmental Engineering – West Virginia University, M.Sc., Environmental Engineering – West Virginia University,

Morgantown, WVMorgantown, WV

Intern, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)’s Energy Intern, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)’s Energy

Analysis Office, June 2002 – August 2003: worked on database of Analysis Office, June 2002 – August 2003: worked on database of

grid-connected renewable energy systemsgrid-connected renewable energy systems

D.Sc. (to be obtained, May 2005) – The George Washington D.Sc. (to be obtained, May 2005) – The George Washington

University, Washington, D.C. (Engineering Mgt. & Systems Eng. University, Washington, D.C. (Engineering Mgt. & Systems Eng.

Dept.; Environmental & Energy Mgt. Program)Dept.; Environmental & Energy Mgt. Program)

Contact InformationContact Information

GW Tel: (202) 994 – 9101GW Tel: (202) 994 – 9101

Mobile Tel: (703) 981 – 8547Mobile Tel: (703) 981 – 8547

Email: Email: elvin@gwu.eduelvin@gwu.edu

Program Newsletter: Program Newsletter: http://http://

www.gwu.edu/~eemnewswww.gwu.edu/~eemnews