Hybrid Modeling & Model Predictive Control
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Hybrid Modeling & Model Predictive Control
The Potential to Leverage Success in Other Industries
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Discussion Overview
• Model Predictive Control – 15 years of Reducing Variability & Improving Quality
• Process Understanding – Leveraging Fundamental AND Empirical Knowledge
• Design Space – ensuring model accuracy with multi-dimensional boundaries
• Lesson’s Learned and Success Achieved in other Industries
• A Practical Risk Based Approach to Implementation
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• Our Mission• Deliver the world’s leading model-based software to
improve our customers’ profitability
• Founded in 1991• Combined intellectual property of DuPont and Eastman
Chemical Company
• Global Presence• Offices in North America, Europe, China, and Pacific Rim
• Financials• Acquired on November 1, 2007 by
Commitment to Innovation• Team of researchers, computer scientists and industry
experts leveraging more than 155 patents in the field of modeling, control and optimization
Pavilion Technologies
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What is a Model?A model explains or emulates the behavior of a process ...
… using a set of computations
•y = a3 u3 + a2 u2 • + a1 u + a0
•monomer
•modifier
•catalyst
•melt index
•density
A model provides predictive capability through “computational experimentation”
• Manufacturing assets can be understood
• Manufacturing assets can be managed
• Note that the "process" need not be physical
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ModelDevelop Statistical ModelsCharacterize ProcessTrace of Outputs vs. InputsTrace of Output SensitivitiesInteractive Set-Point Analysis
Multivariate Data Analysis
Model Development
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What is a Good Model?
Desired Model Features
• Offer prediction accuracy and maintain computational efficiency
• Provide global validity over the entire operation region
• Enable optimal combination of empirical data, first-principles models, and process knowledge
• Remain physically meaningful
• Offer robustness to modeling inaccuracies and disturbances by enabling optimization-based modification of the models
• Enable solution standardization by simplifying template building
Desired Model Features
• Offer prediction accuracy and maintain computational efficiency
• Provide global validity over the entire operation region
• Enable optimal combination of empirical data, first-principles models, and process knowledge
• Remain physically meaningful
• Offer robustness to modeling inaccuracies and disturbances by enabling optimization-based modification of the models
• Enable solution standardization by simplifying template building
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Established Modeling Paradigms aren't Enough
First Principles Modeling• Leverage explicit knowledge
based on scientific principles
•Strengths•Global validity
•Parameters have physical meaning
•Not data dependant
•Weaknesses•Typically incomplete
•Slow evaluation (solver)
•Could contain implicit outputs
First Principles Modeling• Leverage explicit knowledge
based on scientific principles
•Strengths•Global validity
•Parameters have physical meaning
•Not data dependant
•Weaknesses•Typically incomplete
•Slow evaluation (solver)
•Could contain implicit outputs
Empirical Modeling• Leverage implicit knowledge
based on historical/test data
•Strengths• Typically explicit
• Fast evaluation (no solver)
• Wide applicability and quick to develop
•Weaknesses• Valid for observed data
• Often lacks physical meaning
• Requires rich data
Empirical Modeling• Leverage implicit knowledge
based on historical/test data
•Strengths• Typically explicit
• Fast evaluation (no solver)
• Wide applicability and quick to develop
•Weaknesses• Valid for observed data
• Often lacks physical meaning
• Requires rich data
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Building Parametric Hybrid Models
Specify Hybrid Model Structure
•Often a composite model that includes both empirical and FP components
Specify Hybrid Model Structure
•Often a composite model that includes both empirical and FP components
Train the Model using Constrained Optimization
•Often constraints are imposed to ensure model parameters reflect first-principles knowledge
Train the Model using Constrained Optimization
•Often constraints are imposed to ensure model parameters reflect first-principles knowledge
EmpiricalModel
First-Principles
Model
EmpiricalModel
First-Principles
Model
ConstrainedTrainer
increasing
constraint
effects
decreasing
constraint
effects
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Flexible Composite Modeling Example
FundamentalModels
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Pavilion8 in Drying Processes – The Primary Objectives
• Plant “Obedience” is an advanced form of “steady State”
• APC manages the dynamics & rapid disturbances that occur
• Consistency of operation• Enables optimal targets to be
achieved with “confidence”• Preserves safety - plant, people &
product
•
•
•
•Capacity Target uplift = Plant •Obedience and improved •steady state will increase •capacity within dryer limits
•
•Yield Target uplift = Plant •Obedience and VOA control •will allow moisture to increase. • •Plant Obedience = APC
on when the model is in the valid zone approx @ 30% solids
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Fermentation Control ApplicationCapabilities
• 50% reduction in batch EtOH and Dextrose/residual sugars variability
• Continuously manage enzymes to maximize throughput and ethanol yields
• Optimal target on temperature and pH for fermentation
• Manage fermentations to match production targets
Benefits- Increase in batch drop ethanol yield
(MMGPY) by 0.5-1.0%
- Increase in fermentation capacity by 5-12% (MMGPY)
- Increase in batch yields (gal/bu) by 2-5%
- Reduce enzymes/gal ($$ enzymes/gal) by 5-10%
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Slurry Tank
Liquefaction
Backset
Beer Feed
FermenterYeast Propagation
Enzymes
88
Slurry Tank
Liquefaction
Backset
Beer Feed
FermenterYeast Propagation
Enzymes
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Bio-Fermentation Batch A-1022Bio-Fermentation Batch A-1022
Predicted vs ActualPredicted vs Actual
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Bio-Fermentation Batch A-1145Bio-Fermentation Batch A-1145
Predicted vs ActualPredicted vs Actual
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Reactor Control ApplicationCapabilities
• Adjust reactor conditions to maintain at-grade quality control of the resin properties
• Control concentrations within the reactor for improved reactor stability
• Control and/or maximizes production rates within the reactor
• Optimize transitions
• Standardize reactor best practices for complex procedures
Benefits
• Faster transition times
• Reduce off-spec
• Increase production
• Reduce variability
• Improve catalyst and monomer efficiency
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4 Steps of PAT Implementation by John R. Davis, PE and John Wasynczuk, PhD
DiscoverAnalyze Existing Processes
DevelopDevelop Statistical Models
Characterize Process
DemonstrateSubstantiate Statistical
Correlations
DeployPerform Continuous Monitoring &
Analysis
Better Process Knowledge
Through Analytics
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DiscoverAnalyze existing processes
Data Consolidation & VisualizationDCS/SCADA Historical Data
PAT Sensor Array Data
Quality
LIMS
MES/ERP
Data PreprocessingRemove Outliers
Signal Conditioning
Begin analysis in hours not days & weeks
•4 Steps of PAT Implementation by John R. Davis, PE and John Wasynczuk, PhD
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DevelopDevelop Statistical Models
Characterize Process
Trace of Outputs vs. Inputs
Trace of Output Sensitivities
Interactive Set-Point Analysis
Multivariate Data Analysis
Pavilion’s modeling technology can incorporate fundamental models into empirical models, leveraging the benefits both provide for Linear, Non-Linear, Monotonic and Non-monotonic processes
•4 Steps of PAT Implementation by John R. Davis, PE and John Wasynczuk, PhD
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DemonstrateSubstantiate Statistical
Correlations
Predicted vs. Actual Scatter-Plots
Interactive What-Ifs Tools
Provide different input values to tool predicts output values (Prediction)
Provide desired output values to tool determines best input values (Optimization)
•4 Steps of PAT Implementation by John R. Davis, PE and John Wasynczuk, PhD
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Powder Moisture Inferential Accuracy
Te Rapa D1 Moisture Prediction
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
Time (h)
Mo
istu
re (
%)
IPT Moisture (%) Raw VOA Moisture (%) Biased VOA Moisture (%)
•22/4/03• 5pm
•22/4/03• 11pm
•23/4/03•5am
•23/4/03•11am
•23/4/03•5pm
Moisture Inferential Accuracy
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DeployPerform continuous monitoring &
analysis
•BENEFIT
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•104
•102
•100
•98
•96
•94
•92
•90
•SPECIFICATION OR LIMIT
•BEFORE ADVANCED•PROCESS CONTROL
•WITH ADVANCED PROCESS CONTROL & OPTIMIZATION
•Standard•Control
•Advanced•Control
•Optimization
•4 Steps of PAT Implementation by John R. Davis, PE and John Wasynczuk, PhD
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Lessons Learned• A systematic modeling approach enables
cross-divisional collaboration (research, operations, quality, engineering)
• There are a number of unit processes (fermentation, drying, mixing, etc.) that have proven results improvements leveraging this approach and technology in other industries