HWA 4Q13 Newsletter

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————————————————————————————————————————————–———— Securies offered through Cetera Financial Specialists LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFGFS Insurance Agency), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cetera Investment Advisers LLC Financial Planning services offered through Holisc Wealth Advisors, LLC is a State of New York and State of Maryland Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Cetera enes are under separate ownership from any other named enty. HOLISTIC NEWS “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watch- ing grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. ” - Paul Samuelson In This Issue AssetMark A Big Thanks HWA & Social Media Economic Update Important Info An Outlook for 2014 Stock market volatility was uncharacteristically low during 2013, with only one correction of at least 5% based on daily S&P 500 returns.* This provided a strong environment for traditional equity allocations, but fewer opportunities for other asset classes and more flexible asset allocation approaches. Conversely, broader and more active fixed income strategies helped diversify traditional fixed income allocations, as bond yields rose. Looking ahead, it may seem tempting to remove exposure to certain market segments, including bonds and inflation-oriented assets such as real estate and commodities, particu- larly given the recent weak performance. However, in a broadly diversified portfolio, it is expected that some assets will underperform others at any given time. Interestingly, valu- ations for US stocks have reached more elevated levels, with the S&P 500 Shiller Cyclical- ly Adjusted P/E ratio at 25.4, considerably higher than its long-term average of 19.1, while bond yields rose off of historic lows.** At the same time, with inflation expectations moderated, a sudden surge in prices could contribute to gains in inflation-sensitive hold- ings. With respect to inflation, Ned Davis Research recently highlighted an upward trend in income levels, with wages up 2.2% and nonfarm unit labor costs 2.5% higher over the past year.* Given the historically high correlation between wages and price inflation, we could see increased volatility as the Fed transitions policy and leadership, with Janet Yellen tak- ing over as Fed Chair in 2014. In particular, asset inflation in stocks and housing could draw heightened attention. As we enter 2014, potential market risks highlight the benefits of maintaining a diversified portfolio with exposures across a wide range of assets and multiple asset allocation ap- proaches. Please contact us if there have been any changes to your financial situation, your investment ob- jectives, or any questions concerning your account. * Source: Ned Davis Research ** Source: Standard & Poor’s, Factset, Robert Shiller Data *** Article supplied by AssetMark What’s New at Holistic Wealth Advisors January 2014

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Transcript of HWA 4Q13 Newsletter

Page 1: HWA 4Q13 Newsletter

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Securi�es offered through Cetera Financial Specialists LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFGFS Insurance Agency), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory

services offered through Cetera Investment Advisers LLC Financial Planning services offered through Holis�c Wealth Advisors, LLC is a State of New York

and State of Maryland Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Cetera en��es are under separate ownership from any other named en�ty.

HOLISTIC NEWS

“Investing should be

more like watching

paint dry or watch-

ing grass grow. If you

want excitement,

take $800 and go to

Las Vegas. ”

- Paul Samuelson

In This Issue

• AssetMark

• A Big Thanks

• HWA & Social Media

• Economic Update

• Important Info

An Outlook for 2014

Stock market volatility was uncharacteristically low during 2013, with only one correction

of at least 5% based on daily S&P 500 returns.* This provided a strong environment for

traditional equity allocations, but fewer opportunities for other asset classes and more

flexible asset allocation approaches. Conversely, broader and more active fixed income

strategies helped diversify traditional fixed income allocations, as bond yields rose.

Looking ahead, it may seem tempting to remove exposure to certain market segments,

including bonds and inflation-oriented assets such as real estate and commodities, particu-

larly given the recent weak performance. However, in a broadly diversified portfolio, it is

expected that some assets will underperform others at any given time. Interestingly, valu-

ations for US stocks have reached more elevated levels, with the S&P 500 Shiller Cyclical-

ly Adjusted P/E ratio at 25.4, considerably higher than its long-term average of 19.1, while

bond yields rose off of historic lows.** At the same time, with inflation expectations

moderated, a sudden surge in prices could contribute to gains in inflation-sensitive hold-

ings.

With respect to inflation, Ned Davis Research recently highlighted an upward trend in

income levels, with wages up 2.2% and nonfarm unit labor costs 2.5% higher over the past

year.* Given the historically high correlation between wages and price inflation, we could

see increased volatility as the Fed transitions policy and leadership, with Janet Yellen tak-

ing over as Fed Chair in 2014. In particular, asset inflation in stocks and housing could

draw heightened attention.

As we enter 2014, potential market risks highlight the benefits of maintaining a diversified

portfolio with exposures across a wide range of assets and multiple asset allocation ap-

proaches.

Please contact us if there have been any changes to your financial situation, your investment ob-

jectives, or any questions concerning your account.

* Source: Ned Davis Research

** Source: Standard & Poor’s, Factset, Robert Shiller Data

*** Article supplied by AssetMark

What’s New at Holistic Wealth Advisors January 2014

Page 2: HWA 4Q13 Newsletter

Thank You! Thank you for your generous support of the Russian Or-

phanage! As you know, this is the orphanage that Stacy

and Sam adopted their three children from, so this is a

cause that is very dear to their hearts. In addition to

goods (such as blankets, hats, and clothing) that will be

sent over to the orphanage, the monetary donations col-

lected will go towards purchasing items that are needed by

the orphanage, like toiletries, diapers, and other baby care

items. We are so appreciative of your generosity!

Genworth Financial Wealth Management (GFWM) is now AssetMark

As we let you know last year, GFWM was sold by Genworth Financial last year, and is now an

independent company, AssetMark. The name was changed in November of 2013, but you will

begin to see that name being used on your statements and performance reports. Genworth

Financial Asset Management will now go by the name Savos Investments.

These changes will have no effect on your investments or accounts

Children in the Russian orphanage

Holistic & Social Media Holistic Wealth Advisors’ Facebook page is a great resource for us

to provide our clients with timely and pertinent financial infor-

mation. Once you find our Facebook page press the “Like” button

and you will be linked to our news feed. Our posts include interest-

ing investment articles, market commentaries, economic updates,

or other relevant info that may pertain to your wealth manage-

ment.

You can also visit our website, www.HolisticWealthAdvisors.com

to learn more about our firm, leverage our planning tools, or read

in depth articles related to wealth management, financial planning,

and investing.

Please ensure that our main office has your current and preferred

email address. If you are unsure then send a quick email to

[email protected] with your updated information.

We Gladly Accept

Referrals

Do you have a friend,

neighbor, colleague, or

family member that is:

- Retiring?

- Moving?

- Tired of D.I.Y.?

- Ready to invest?

- In need of professional

wealth & retirement

planning?

- In need of Long Term

Care Insurance?

- Selling a business?

If so, please forward our

office number and email

or call our office with

your referral infor-

mation. We will gladly

set up an appointment

and review their person-

al situation.

Please remember your

personal data will always

remain private.

Page 3: HWA 4Q13 Newsletter

Go Figure

85%

The percentage of

annuity owners

who responded to

a Genworth survey

that said they con-

sider a predictable

income stream to

be "critical" to

their ability to have

the retirement they

envision.

1999

The last time the

Nasdaq Composite

Index traded above

the 4,000 level,

which it finally

reached again in

December.

73

The age to which a

new study says

most of today's

college graduates

will have to wait to

retire due to high

student debt loads.

With a life expec-

tancy of 84, that

leaves only 11

years to enjoy re-

tirement.

“Go Figure” provided by

Transamerica Investments

Economic Review

Markets

The fourth quarter of 2013 saw a continuation of trends that developed over the first nine months of the

year. Global equity markets outperformed fixed income and cash, while US stocks outdistanced their inter-

national counterparts and, particularly, emerging markets. The US stock market S&P 500 Index returned

10.51% * for the quarter, with investors encouraged by political progress and an end to October’s govern-

ment shutdown. Large caps led small caps, although stock gains were broad-based as the Russell 2000 Index

rose 8.72% during the quarter. Notably, US stocks advanced 32.39% in 2013—their best year since 1997.

The MSCI EAFE Index of international developed equities lagged the US, returning 5.75% for the quarter.

The European region led on signs of economic improvement and continued support from the European

Central Bank. Japan lagged in US dollar terms over the quarter, despite aggressive central bank policy,

which helped lift the Nikkei Stock Average to historic gains. For the full year, international developed mar-

kets significantly trailed US stocks with a 23.29% return, while emerging markets saw a modest 1.86% gain

for the quarter and a -2.27% return for the year. Despite a slowdown in economic growth, China appeared

to avoid a hard landing in 2013.

Real estate and commodities were among the weaker performing asset classes, with the Fed’s announced

pullback of bond purchases and tame inflation readings in the US. The NAREIT Equity REIT Index returned

-0.71% for the quarter and 2.47% for 2013. The Dow UBS Commodity Index returned -1.05% for the quar-

ter, impacted by higher supplies and lower demand. Gold was a large drag to commodities, plummeting

nearly 30% over the year—its first decline since 2000 and worst year since 1981.**

The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index returned -0.14% for the quarter and -2.02% for the year—its worst

annual showing since 1994. The rise in bond yields weighed more heavily on government-related sectors.

The Barclays US Treasury Long Index was negative for the quarter and returned -13.88% for the year. Con-

versely, the more credit-sensitive bond sectors, particularly high yield, benefited from an improving eco-

nomic environment. The Barclays Global Treasury ex US Bond index returned -1.39% for the quarter with

weakness in international currencies, while emerging market bonds saw outflows on concerns related to

the impact of a reduction in Fed stimulus.

Economic Review

The US economy continued to gain momentum, growing at a 4.1% annual rate during the third quarter of

2013, based on the government’s most recent estimate.*** This was the second highest growth figure of the

current economic expansion and well above the 3.3% historical average growth rate. At the same time,

unemployment declined to 7.0% in November, down from its 10.0% peak in October 2009. Inflation re-

mained benign and below the Federal Reserve's longer-term target of 2%, with the Consumer Price Index

1.2% higher over the 12 months ending November 2013. The Federal Reserve expects ongoing improve-

ment in the economy and projects 2014 GDP growth of 2.8% to 3.2%. Unemployment is projected to be

between 6.3% and 6.6% by the end of 2014, with inflation in the range of 1.4% to 1.6%.

In view of economic progress, in December the Fed officially announced that it would scale back its $85

billion in monthly government-related bond purchases beginning in January 2014. With this anticipated

change in policy, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond increased from 1.78% at the start of the year to

3.04% by the end of December. This impacted the broad universe of income-oriented assets, particularly

during May and June with early hints of a potential Fed “taper.” Importantly, the Fed maintained its commit-

ment to keep short-term rates low for an extended period and the stock market responded favorably to

the news.

** Index returns from Morningstar Direct ** Source: Ned Davis Research

*** Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis **** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ***** Article supplied by AssetMark

Page 4: HWA 4Q13 Newsletter

Newsletter Courtesy

of Your Holistic Team

Stacy Clifford

Lakshmi Nagarajan

Sarah Blass

Sam Clifford

Raymond Kidalowski

Sue Donovan

Terence Ruso

H. Paul Thomas

Lillian Helmedach

Rita Young

Sue Miniter

It’s That Time of Year Again

– Important Information on 1099s

As you are getting your information together for your taxes, please keep the

following dates in mind:

For most custodians, you can expect 1099 R-s by the end of January, 1099s by

the end of February, and any 1099 Revisions by Mid-March.

Regulatory Mailings to Clients:

The SEC “Books and Records” regulatory requirements mandate that invest-

ment objectives and suitability on all open accounts are reviewed within a 36-

month period. We meet with you on a regular basis to make sure our records

are up-to-date, but our broker-dealer (Cetera Financial Specialists, LLC) is

required to confirm this information every 36 months.

We wanted to make you aware that you may receive a letter from Cetera

Financial Specialists, LLC that has your suitability information. If you receive

one, and it is correct, no action is needed. If you receive a letter and it is inac-

curate, please contact us right away so we can update your records with the

correct information.

Contact Us Please contact our main office for more information about our services

Holistic Wealth Advisors

19 Clifton Country Road

Suite 3B

Clifton Park, NY 12065

(518) 357-3858

[email protected]