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HVEDC Quarterly Report
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NYS THRUWAY River A s h o k a n R e s erv oir H u d s o n S S 17 17 199 22 22 28 32 32 32 42 52 52 52 55 55 97 97 209 209 209 44 44 6 9 9W 9W 9W 684 84 87 87 N e v e r s in k R . Delaware R i v e r CATSKILL PARK 84 95 Hudson Valley Employment Continues to Improve In the past year, we’ve seen the overall unemployment rate in the Hudson Valley drop to 5 percent, as the region continues to see progress consistent with overall trends in the economy. Although the labor force has decreased by about 18,800 workers, the number of unemployed people is also down by 8,700 — and the region has added nearly 17,000 jobs. Westchester and Rockland-Orange counties continue to lead the way in new job creation, accounting for more than 13,700 new jobs in the last year, largely in education, health care and professional services. The leisure and hospitality and trade, transportation and utilities sectors are also seeing improved labor markets. Meanwhile, skilled trades and manufacturing have experienced some declines, as government spending remains low. Other news of note: • The Mid-Hudson Valley Region received $82.8 million in Regional Economic Development Council awards in December, the highest total in the state. The funds will support the completion of 118 different projects, among them the Grasmere Farm boutique hotel project in Dutchess County, the conversion of a former train station into the new Middletown Community Health Center in Orange County and the continued park development of the Saw Mill River in Westchester County. • The New York State Gaming Facility Location Board has referred Empire Resorts, Inc. and its Montreign Resort Casino in Sullivan County for approval by the State Gaming Commission for a Gaming Facility License. If the license is awarded, Montreign Resort Casino and the Adelaar non-casino amenities development will be built in the Town of Thompson and is expected to create 3,086 jobs during construction and 2,160 full- and part-time permanent jobs. Laurence P. Gottlieb President and CEO HVEDC Job Gains (last 12 months) & Industry Drivers Total Labor Force (Q4/Q4) 1.1M Even with Q4 2013 Employment Growth (Q4/Q4) 1.7% from 0.9% in Q4 2013 Unemployment Rate (December) 5.0% from 5.8% in Dec. 2013 WESTCHESTER +9,190 jobs Trade and Transportation; Professional and Business Services; Education and Healthcare +1,630 jobs Trade and Transportation; Leisure and Hospitality SULLIVAN-ULSTER Total Jobs +16,891 +4,560 jobs Education and Healthcare; Professional and Business Services DUTCHESS-PUTNAM +1,511 jobs Education and Healthcare; Trade and Transportation ORANGE-ROCKLAND Q ECONOMIC REPORT UARTERLY HVEDC-JLL January 2015 Hudson Valley News & Notes 4 th Q
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January 2015
Transcript of HVEDC Quarterly Report
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Hudson Valley Employment Continues to ImproveIn the past year, we’ve seen the overall unemployment rate in the Hudson Valley drop to 5 percent, as the region continues to see progress consistent with overall trends in the economy. Although the labor force has decreased by about 18,800 workers, the number of unemployed people is also down by 8,700 — and the region has added nearly 17,000 jobs.
Westchester and Rockland-Orange counties continue to lead the way in new job creation, accounting for more than 13,700 new jobs in the last year, largely in education, health care and professional services. The leisure and hospitality and trade, transportation and utilities sectors are also seeing improved labor markets. Meanwhile, skilled trades and manufacturing have experienced some declines, as government spending remains low.
Other news of note:
• The Mid-Hudson Valley Region received $82.8 million in Regional Economic Development Council awards in December, the highest total in the state. The funds will support the completion of 118 different projects, among them the Grasmere Farm boutique hotel project in Dutchess County, the conversion of a former train station into the new Middletown Community Health Center in Orange County and the continued park development of the Saw Mill River in Westchester County.
• The New York State Gaming Facility Location Board has referred Empire Resorts, Inc. and its Montreign Resort Casino in Sullivan County for approval by the State Gaming Commission for a Gaming Facility License. If the license is awarded, Montreign Resort Casino and the Adelaar non-casino amenities development will be built in the Town of Thompson and is expected to create 3,086 jobs during construction and 2,160 full- and part-time permanent jobs.
Laurence P. Gottlieb President and CEO HVEDC
Job
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Total Labor Force(Q4/Q4)
1.1M Even with Q4 2013
Employment Growth (Q4/Q4)
1.7% from 0.9% in Q4 2013
UnemploymentRate (December)
5.0% from 5.8% in Dec. 2013
WESTCHESTER+9,190 jobs
Trade and Transportation; Professional and Business Services; Education and Healthcare
+1,630 jobs
Trade and Transportation; Leisure and Hospitality
SULLIVAN-ULSTER
Total Jobs +16,891
+4,560 jobs
Education and Healthcare; Professional and Business Services
DUTCHESS-PUTNAM+1,511 jobs
Education and Healthcare; Trade and Transportation
ORANGE-ROCKLAND
QECONOMIC REPORTUARTERLYH V E D C - J L L
January 2015
Hudson Valley News & Notes4th Q
JANUARY 2015 | HVEDC-JLL Quarterly Economic Report
Expert ViewpointBy Paul E. Harrington, Ph.D., and Neeta P. Fogg, Ph.D., Center for Labor Markets and Policy
Drexel University Special Workforce Advisor to HVEDC @CLMPDrexel
Two States in One!Employment and Earnings Gaps Grow Wider in New York
Worker earnings are a fundamental driver of demand for goods and services. About 70 percent of personal income in the nation (and in most states) comes from wages earned from work. Three factors are important to create a strong regional economy: employment growth, earnings associated with that work, and the nature of the way those earnings are distributed across households and across regions.
The good news is that the state of New York has added a lot of jobs since the end of the last recession, but as we noted in our last column, that growth was overwhelmingly concentrated in New York City where a lot of high-wage growth was generated in professional and scientific services (including some large accounting and finance companies) and parts of the health care industry. But a lot of lower paying jobs were created as well in the city’s accommodation and food services sector. These changes are creating a more hour glass-shaped occupational employment distribution with growth in the high and low ends, but not much in the middle.
In marked contrast to the employment growth in NYC, the rest of the state has yet to recover all the jobs lost during the Great Recession. As we noted in an earlier column, the city’s rebound from the recession has been terrific; for every 100 jobs lost in NYC during the downturn, more than 430 more have been created during the current recovery. Yet the rest of the state has seen 79 jobs recovered per 100 jobs lost in the recession. Therefore, a significant job creation gap has emerged between the city and the rest of the state.
CONTINUED ON PAGE 3Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample, 2012-2013, New York, tabulations by the authors
Mean Annual Real Earnings (2013$) of the Employed, by Earnings Decile and Place of Work
$2,9
49
$30,
791
$16,
912
$48,
178
$79,
733
$9,7
66
$38,
691$23,
593
$60,
050
$166
,421
-37
.5%
-24
.4%
-23
.4%
-20
.9%
-19
.8%
-19
.0%
-17
.9%
-18
.7%
-26
.0%
-41
.9%
$5,0
77
$38,
008
$20,
803
$60,
910 $1
05,4
25
$13,
195
$48,
265
$28,
754
$78,
364
$266
,264
$-9
98
43
$-2
56
92
$-1
83
14
$-1
27
32
$-9
57
3
$-7
21
7$-5
16
0
$-3
89
0
$-3
42
9
$-2
12
7
Place of Work: n New York Cityn Balance of New York State
Balance of State (-) NYC $ Absolute Difference% Percent Difference
POSITION IN THE DECILE OF EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION
Bottom 10 percent 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile 6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile Top 10 Percent
Hudson Valley News & Notes4th Q
JANUARY 2015 | HVEDC-JLL Quarterly Economic Report
Expert Viewpoint
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 2
Hudson Valley News & Notes4th Q
While employment growth has given a big advantage to NYC compared to the rest of the state, weekly earnings after adjusting for inflation are not growing enough in New York. We analyzed data from the American Community Survey (ACS), a large monthly survey of a sample of households conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, to examine how jobs pay across the entire earnings distribution in New York City compared to the rest of the state.
Our analysis of the data on the earnings distribution of workers employed in NYC compared to the rest of the state reveals a huge concentration of high earners working in jobs located in the city. We ranked workers by their personal earnings for the year and broke them up into decile groupings. We found that people in the bottom decile of the earnings distribution in the city had mean annual earning of just $5,100; while the lowest 10 percent of workers in the rest of the state had earnings that averaged even lower; just under $3,000 per year. These earnings gaps between the city and the rest of the state were sizable at the top of the earnings distribution.
The average worker in the city’s top 10 percent earned $266,300, a level of annual earnings that is nearly $100,000 greater than the average earnings of those in the highest income decile in the balance of the state. The findings are of note since earnings, wealth and spending are highly interrelated. High earnings lead to much greater levels of wealth and high levels of wealth yield high levels of spending. Indeed, some economists attribute the recent uptick in gross domestic product (GDP) and job creation to a sharp rise in wealth associated with the booming stock market
and rising values in the housing market. It’s no wonder NYC booms as the rest of the state plays catch-up.
This column is authored by nationally renowned labor statistics expert Paul E. Harrington, Ph.D., professor and director for the Center of Labor Market and Policy (CLMP) at Drexel University and Neeta P. Fogg, Ph.D., research professor at the CLMP.
2010
$926
$1,6
90
$1,6
29
$911
2013
Mean Annual Real Weekly Earnings of Private Sector Jobs Covered Under the New York Unemployment Compensation
Insurance Program, 2010 and 2013 (2013 constant dollars)
n New York City n Balance of State
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2015, tabulations by the authors
Hudson Valley News & Notes4th Q
About Hudson Valley Economic Development Corporation (HVEDC)HVEDC is the leading economic development agency for the seven-county region of Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess, Rockland, Orange, Ulster and Sullivan counties. The public-private partnership markets the region as a prime business location to corporate executives, site selection consultants and real estate brokers. HVEDC created the branding and promotional efforts for industry cluster initiatives Hudson Valley 3D Printing, the Hudson Valley Food & Beverage Alliance and NY BioHud Valley. For more information or to review available business sites, visit www.hvedc.com or call CEO Laurence P. Gottlieb at 845-220-2244.
Hudson Valley Economic Development Corp.
4 Crotty Lane, Suite 100 New Windsor, NY 12553
845.220.2244
Laurence P. Gottlieb, President and CEO
hvedc.com
About JLL ResearchJLL’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis, and insight through market-leading reports and services that illuminate today’s commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our 300 professional researchers track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries, producing unrivaled local and global perspectives. Our research and expertise, fueled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world, creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions.
Leasing
Chris O’Callaghan
Research
Kevin Interlicchio
us.jll.com
us.jll.com/ct-westchester
Westchester
Westchester
20.9
%$2
4.51
22.6
%$2
6.53
20.7
%$2
2.96
11.7
%$1
8.91
23.0
%$1
0.17
21.7
%$2
2.29
12.3
%$1
8.93
22.6
%$9
.84
Orange-Rockland
Orange-Rockland
Dutchess-Putnam
Dutchess-Putnam
Sullivan-Ulster
Sullivan-Ulster
Office vacancy rate by market n Q4 2013 n Q4 2014
Asking commercial rent (cost per square foot) by market n Q4 2013 n Q4 2014
Overview• Year-over-year vacancy in the Hudson Valley is
largely unchanged.
• Westchester has displayed the largest year-over-year change in vacancy due to increased leasing at Interstate 287 West and East corridors.
• The vast majority of users in the region are in the 5,000-to-10,000-square-foot range.
• Office vacancy in Dutchess-Putnam is expected to continue its upward trend as old product and limited transportation renders most of the buildings obsolete.
Things to watch• New Rochelle is preparing for a large construction project that is expected to add approximately 1 million square feet of medical and office space.
• The manufacturing sector over the last year has dispensed of 740 jobs, this trend is expected to continue due to the decreasing footprint of such companies in our area.
• The only area in the Hudson Valley with a slightly higher asking rent in 2014 than in 2013 is Dutchess-Putnam.
