Husum, 19 September 2012 SIDE Event Bureau de coordination ... · Wind industry in France, a true...

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Husum, 19 September 2012

Current status and perspectives of the French wind energy market.

Husum, 19 September 2012 SIDE Event Bureau de coordination énergies renouvelables Nicolas Wolff, VP General Manager Vestas France

President of the French Wind Energy Association, France Energie Eolienne

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Agenda

Evolution of the wind energy situation in France

Barriers and challenges

Future perspectives and conclusion

An international perspective…

The global context: wind sector outlook

The wind sector is not expected to grow the coming years

Global total wind power capacity added GW

-13%

+1%

+26%

17E

47.8

16E

46.9

15E

45.3

14E

44.0

13E

18.9

06

15.1

05

11.1

2004

7.3

39.9

12E

46.1

11

41.1

10

39.9

09

36.7

08

30.5

07

• 1% growth is expected

the coming years –

According to EER, we

are no longer in a

growth industry.

• Focus needs to shift

from growth to

profitability.

Source: EER

• A mature but slow market.

• Growth on Emerging market.






Wind Energy market situation in France






6

Champagne-Ardenne 980

Picardie 883

Bretagne 681

Centre 672

Lorraine 653

Pays de la Loire 443

Languedoc-Roussillon 435

Nord-pas-de-calais 417

Midi-Pyrenées 384

Poitou-Charentes 280

TOP 10 regions:

*Sources: France Energie Eolienne






An increase in nominal power

Nominal power 10 times bigger from 1997 to 2007

The average nominal power is now over 2,1MW per machine


2.1 MW per machine






Suppliers in the French market at the end of 2011 Cumulative installed capacity* by the end of 2011

*Source France Energie Eolienne

8

Repower

Nordex

Gamesa

Siemens

Alstom

GE

Vergnet

Other

Vestas trend for product development by 2015 9

Wind types per region in France

30 kW 3 000 kW

Towards larger rotors and higher hub heights

Wind Turbines

Adapted to site conditions:

• complex sites

• regulated sites

Vestas Corporate presentation 10 Vestas trend for product development by 2015 10

Wind industry in France, a true potential

French wind energy association:

250 active members / 11000 direct jobs

Commercial balance

€ 950M export out of € 1050M import

France already has 170 companies,

supplying the world market: • Rollix Defontaine,

• Mersen,

• EADS Astrium,

• SKF, Converteam,

• Schneider Electric,

• Ceole,

• Baudin ChateauNeuf

Training and growth opportunities for

technicians via several collaborations in

France: Nimes, Charleville-Mezieres, Le

Mans, Amiens…

12

Bienvenue

Barriers and challenges






Evolution of the installed capacities in France Another decrease expected in 2012…

13

MW






The European context France is not the only country experiencing regulatory uncertainties*

* Source: EmerginegEnergy Research 2012 14

FR






Two kinds of barriers

1/ Regulatory barriers linked to GRENELLE II

ICPE classification

5 machines minimum

Zone de Developpement Eolien

Recent decrees:

• Regional grid sketches

• Radars constraints and ICPE

2/ Feeding Tariff

The high court of justice, further to an anti wind appeal, has decided in May to transfer the case to the European court of Justice

Decision to be taken towards mid 2013 to end of 2013







Time-to-market: one of the longest in Europe

Building permits ZDE &

Regional Schemes ICPE requirements

Very long journey to get a project completed…

Submitting

Instruction

Approval / Refusal / Appeal Rate 37%


Compared to Germany*…:

France Germany

Average development time: 6,5 Years 2,5 Years

Instruction phase (lenght) 1,5 Years 0,5 Years

Appeals max.length 12,5 Years 5,5 Years






However…






French public opinion is positively evolving…

18

Sondage exclusif BVA

Pour Agir pour l‟Environnement

Effectué les 7 et 8 septembre 2012

Selon vous, à l’avenir, quelle source d’énergie faudrait-il développer en priorité ?

French wind market: French consumers believe in it!! Global Consumer Study 2011 mapped the preferences of 31,000

consumers across 26 markets

For the whole study click here.

46% of consumers say that climate change is in the top three concerns currently facing the world

81% think the manufacturing industry is to a high or very high degree a cause of human induced climate change

78% state renewable energy as their preferred energy source

58% think that fossil fuel use should be diminished

87% support an increase in renewable energy

http://www.vestas.com/en/about-vestas/transparency/global-consumer-wind-study.aspx






2020: still a long way to go…but promising targets


Today

2012

Offshore

Onshore

19 GW

6 GW

6833 MW






German banks are leading

German financial institutions

Sarre Landesbank

Bremnen Landesbank

Baden Wurttemberg LB

Nordbank HSH







Environnemental conference 14th and 15th of September

Proposed Regulations:

ZDE to be cancelled

2nd offshore tender late 2012

Work in progress:

Support schemes to become stable (ICPE,

5 wtg constraints)

Feeding Tariff:

Work in progress, the government is

currently studying the different options

including a notification to the European

Commission.

Some insights :






Conclusion

Vestas Corporate presentation 23 Vestas trend for product development by 2015 23

France stays an attractive market

2012 and 2013 will be under our

expectations

However, improvements expected during

the Big Debate around Energetic

transition (end 2012/ early 2013)

National Wind Industry conference

Paris, 18th of October

20% EU target still valid

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Husum, 19 September 2012 SIDE Event Bureau de coordination ... · Wind industry in France, a true...

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