Chesapeake Bay Seminar SeriesChesapeake Bay Seminar Series

Anatomy of a Storm Surge:Hurricanes on the Dark Side of the Bay

Bill Boicourt (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory)

Online broadcast athttp://ian.umces.edu/seminarbroadcast.htm

Hosted by the Integration & Application Network at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

http://ian.umces.edu

Anatomy of a Storm Surge:Anatomy of a Storm Surge:Hurricanes on the Dark SideHurricanes on the Dark Side

of the Bayof the Bay

William BoicourtWilliam Boicourt

Photo: Baltimore SunPhoto: Baltimore Sun

OutlineOutline

I.I. Tropical Cyclones: Tropical Cyclones: How do they work?How do they work?

NASA MODISNASA MODIS

II.II. Response of Chesapeake BayResponse of Chesapeake Bay

III.III. Implications for MonitoringImplications for MonitoringResearch, and ManagementResearch, and Management

MotivationMotivation•• Response of Estuaries to strong wind forcingResponse of Estuaries to strong wind forcing

NOAA OU CIMMSNOAA OU CIMMS

1933,2003; Dark Side Forcing1933,2003; Dark Side ForcingIsabelIsabel August, 1933August, 1933

NOAANOAA

DSFDSF——New Inlets in Barrier New Inlets in Barrier IslandsIslands

USGSUSGS

Motivation, cont’dMotivation, cont’d•• STRONG StormSTRONG Storm

Field ResearchFacility

The Outer Banks of North Carolina

Cape Hatteras

USACE FRFUSACE FRFNASA MODIS ImageNASA MODIS Image

Motivation, cont’dMotivation, cont’d

•• Response of Response of ecosystemecosystem

Oxygen before the StormOxygen before the Storm

Data courtesy David Jasinski, Chesapeake Bay ProgramData courtesy David Jasinski, Chesapeake Bay Program

Motivation, cont’dMotivation, cont’d•• Operational forecasts and warnings Operational forecasts and warnings –– data assimilationdata assimilation

Isabel caused widespread floodingIsabel caused widespread flooding

Havre de GraceHavre de GraceFrog Mortar CreekFrog Mortar Creek

Kent NarrowsKent NarrowsAnnapolis city dockAnnapolis city dockImages © Baltimore SunImages © Baltimore Sun

Dorchester CountyDorchester County

•• 750 homes damaged750 homes damaged•• 350 cars lost350 cars lost

Photo: Baltimore SunPhoto: Baltimore Sun

MysteryMysteryof of

the the CycloneCyclone

NASA MODIS ImageNASA MODIS Image

Strong StormStrong Storm

NASA Space Station VisibleNASA Space Station Visible

StriationsStriations

How do tropical cyclones grow?How do tropical cyclones grow?•• Convective Instability of the Second Kind Convective Instability of the Second Kind

(CISK)(CISK)

Heat EngineHeat Engine22

HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel

Hurricane FabianHurricane FabianHurricaneHurricane

IsabelIsabel

11

33 44

NASA GSFC AMSRNASA GSFC AMSR--E E

HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel

HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.hhttp://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.htmltml

LandfallLandfall

Eye ofEye ofHurricaneHurricaneIsabel

NOAA AOMLNOAA AOML

Isabel11 22

33 44

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.hhttp://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/Isabels_Engine.htmltml

Wind ResponseWind Response

Local vs. Remote ForcingLocal vs. Remote Forcing

NASA SEANASA SEA--WiFSWiFS

SLOSH ModelSLOSH Model

NOAA AOMLNOAA AOML

11 22

Eye ofEye ofHurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel

33

WindWinddirectiondirection

44 55 66For the Chesapeake Bay SLOSH model, visitFor the Chesapeake Bay SLOSH model, visithttp://www.frf.usace.army.mil/isabel/I49_EHAT.GIFhttp://www.frf.usace.army.mil/isabel/I49_EHAT.GIF

SeaSea--Level RiseLevel Rise

NOAA NOS CONOAA NOS CO--OPSOPS

Why Washington?Why Washington?

CBOSCBOS——Mid BayMid Bay

Oxygen, MixingOxygen, Mixing

BERTHABERTHA——July 12July 12--13, 199613, 1996

FRANFRAN——Sept. 5 1996Sept. 5 1996

Salt IntrusionSalt IntrusionCBOSCBOS——Northern Bay StationNorthern Bay Station

Bay ResponseBay Response

Strawberry Point Strawberry Point ––Middle RiverMiddle River

Deep Landing Deep Landing ––Chester RiverChester River

Ben Oaks Ben Oaks ––Severn RiverSevern River

SalinitySalinity

TurbidityTurbidity

Data courtesy Mark Trice, MD DNRData courtesy Mark Trice, MD DNR

78

39

knot

s

0

Wind Speed

Along channel velocity (flood is positive)

Acoustic Backscatter (dB)

Hei

ght a

bove

bot

tom

(m)

Courtesy of Don Wright

Lessons Learned: Observing Lessons Learned: Observing SystemsSystems

CBOS Buoy Mark IIICBOS Buoy Mark III

Lessons Learned: Warnings Lessons Learned: Warnings InadequateInadequate

•• DorchesterDorchester

Photo: Baltimore SunPhoto: Baltimore Sun

•• 750 Homes Damaged750 Homes Damaged•• 350 Cars Lost350 Cars Lost

ForecastsForecasts•• WavesWaves•• Marine WeatherMarine Weather•• Water LevelWater Level——Storm SurgeStorm Surge•• CurrentsCurrents•• SalinitySalinity•• Water QualityWater Quality----OxygenOxygen•• Oil and Hazardous Materials TransportOil and Hazardous Materials Transport•• HAB ConditionsHAB Conditions

RecommendationsRecommendations

•• Integrated Observing SystemIntegrated Observing System•• Improve Forecast ModelsImprove Forecast Models•• Detailed WarningsDetailed Warnings•• Upgrade Elevation MapsUpgrade Elevation Maps•• Ecosystem Events vs. ContinuumEcosystem Events vs. Continuum

UMCES UMCES –– HPLHPLBay Model Bay Model

Hydrodynamics Hydrodynamics ––ROMS/TOMSROMS/TOMS

Chesapeake Bay Observing Chesapeake Bay Observing SystemSystem

Field ResearchFacility

The Outer Banks of North Carolina

Cape Hatteras

Wallops Coastal OceanObservation Lab

WA-COOL

Ecosystem: Respond to EventsEcosystem: Respond to Events

We are not alone….We are not alone….

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsJane Thomas, IANJane Thomas, IANMark TriceMark TriceDave JasinskiDave JasinskiBaltimore SunBaltimore SunNOAA CONOAA CO--OPSOPSNOAANOAA--OUOU--CIMMSCIMMSNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityEPA Bay ProgramEPA Bay ProgramMD DNR Eyes on the BayMD DNR Eyes on the BayVIMSVIMS——Don WrightDon Wright

Chesapeake Bay Seminar SeriesChesapeake Bay Seminar Series

Anatomy of a storm surge:Hurricanes on the dark side of the Bay

Bill Boicourt(University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory)

QUESTION TIMEHosted by the Integration & Application Network

at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

http://ian.umces.edu

RecommendationsRecommendations

•• Integrated Observing SystemIntegrated Observing System•• Improve Forecast ModelsImprove Forecast Models•• Detailed WarningsDetailed Warnings•• Upgrade Elevation MapsUpgrade Elevation Maps•• Ecosystem Events vs. ContinuumEcosystem Events vs. Continuum

CBOSCBOS——Mid BayMid Bay

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgmentsJane Thomas, IANJane Thomas, IANMark TriceMark TriceDave JasinskiDave JasinskiBaltimore SunBaltimore SunNOAA CONOAA CO--OPSOPSNOAANOAA--OUOU--CIMMSCIMMSNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityNASA Goddard Space Flight FacilityEPA Bay ProgramEPA Bay ProgramMD DNR Eyes on the BayMD DNR Eyes on the BayVIMSVIMS——Don WrightDon Wright

Chesapeake Bay Seminar SeriesChesapeake Bay Seminar Series

Anatomy of a storm surge:Hurricanes on the dark side of the Bay

Bill Boicourt(University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory)

QUESTION TIMEHosted by the Integration & Application Network

at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

http://ian.umces.edu