HURRICANE EARL SUMMARY

UPDATED AUGUST 31, 20102:30 PM

Hurricane Earl – Category 4 Storm

HURRICANE EARL PROJECTION

• Major category 4 hurricane currently but may encounter dry air to the northwest

• NHC track has Earl passing 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket as category 2 or 3 hurricane– Consistent with most computer models that show

passage near or just east of 40N 70W “Benchmark”– Average track error 150 miles either side this far out

• Interaction with northern U.S. weather system may be critical player

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTSMarine

• High seas, high surf, and dangerous rip currents likely Thursday through Saturday– Swells from Earl likely by early Thursday– Dangerous rip currents likely along most ocean

exposed beaches whether south or east facing Thursday through Saturday

– Seas over open coastal waters• 10 to 20 feet to left of track• 20 to 30+ feet very near track• 30 to 40+ feet to right of the track

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSWind

• Slightly greater than 50/50 probability to Tropical Storm Force winds Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket

• Around 50/50 risk of hurricane force gusts outer Cape and Nantucket

• 20 to 30 percent chance of tropical storm force gusts rest of southeast MA along and SE of I-95 corridor (including Boston) as well as southern Rhode Island

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSHeavy Rain/Flooding

• Increasing likelihood of 1+ inches of rain across much of southern New England Thursday night through Friday evening

• Axis of 4 to 7 inches of rain possible Cape and Islands– Modest shift of track to west could place axis of 4

to 7 inches of rain across Rhode Island and rest of eastern Massachusetts

• Greatest flood risk will be urban drainages

HURRICANE EARL IMPACTSStorm Surge Flooding

• Storm surge of a few feet due to northeast winds could cause flooding along Nantucket Harbor and northeast shore of Martha’s Vineyard, if coinciding with Friday evening high tide

• If Hurricane Earl passes closer to outer Cape, then some concern for storm surge flooding behind the storm for Wellfleet and Provincetown harbors