Humboldt County Economy 2007 Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club November 6, 2007.
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Transcript of Humboldt County Economy 2007 Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club November 6, 2007.
Humboldt County Economy2007
Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club
November 6, 2007
Humboldt County Economy2007
By Erick Eschker
Department of Economics
Humboldt State University
Humboldt Economic Index
www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum/index.htm
Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors
Six Sectors and Composite
• Energy
• Lumber-based manufacturing
• Employment
• Hospitality
• Retail
• Housing
• Composite
Energy• Not much has changed in two years
Humbodt County Energy Consumption
(seasonally adjusted)
0
100
200
300
S ep-
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun S ep-in
dex
val
ues
Electricity Natural Gas
Lumber Manufacturing• Structural Decline but high variability
Lumber-based Manufacturing Index (seasonally adjusted)
50
60
70
80
90
Sep-0
5Dec M
arJu
nSep Dec M
arJu
n
Sep-0
7
The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.
Employment• Very little change in overall employment• Unemployment rate has risen recently
Unemployment Rates September '06 - September '07
(seasonally adjusted)
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Sep OctNov Dec Ja
nFeb M
ar AprM
ay Jun Ju
lAug Sep
State National County
Hospitality• Slight upward trend
Hospitality (seasonally adjusted)
75
85
95
Sep-0
7Dec M
arJu
nSep Dec M
arJu
n
Sep-0
7
Ind
ex v
alu
e
The seasonally adjusted Hospitality index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.
Retail• Based on our own survey (we’re always looking
for more data providers!)
Retail (seasonally adjusted)
120
130140
150
160170
180
Sep Dec Mar
Jun
Sep Dec Mar
Jun
Sep
Ind
ex
valu
e
The seasonally adjusted Retail Index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.
Housing
• New Real Estate Page on the Index
• Significant sales drop since summer 2005
• 40% drop July-Sept (record drop)
• Sales now at 1997 levels
Housing
House Price to Rent Ratio• Rose very quickly starting in 2003
Composite• Decline since May• Housing and Manufacturing the main reason
Seasonally Adjusted Composite Index
100
105
110
115
Sept'05
Dec'05
Mar'06
Jun'06
Sept'06
Dec'06
Mar'07
Jun'07
Sep'07
Forecast• We don’t do forecasts• Two local Leading Indicators show slowing
Forecast• This is an important time
– Recession? Credit Crunch? Inflation?
• Federal Reserve Economist on Oct. 22
• Uncertainty:– Financial Markets– Housing– Energy Prices– Consumer Spending