Humanitarian Intervention
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HumanitarianIntervention
Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 2, 2011
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Humanitarian intervention
Definition:
‘forcible military intervention in humanitarian crises’
in failed states to secure aid
against murderous states to stop atrocities
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The new interventionism
1988-1993: 20 new missions
UN peacekeeping budget
* $230 m in 1988
* $800 m – $1.6 b in 1990s
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Rare during Cold War
1. Superpower stand-off
2. Insufficient public pressure
3. UNSC log-jam
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Traditional peacekeeping
• Chapter VI and a half’ activity
- Required ceasefire and consent
• Limited in number, size and scope
- 1948-1978: 13 missions
- 1978-1988: none
- supervise truces
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The blue helmets
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UN Charter
Article 2(3): Settle disputes by ‘peaceful means’
Article 2(4): refrain from ‘threat or use of force’
Article 2(7): non-intervention
Article 51: inherent ‘right of self-defence.’
Chapter VII: peace enforcement – in response to a ‘threat to international peace and security.’
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Humanitarian? Not in name
India in East Pakistan (1971)
Tanzania in Uganda (1978)
Vietnam in Cambodia (1978)
France in Central African Republic (1979)
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Cold war attitude
“The notion that because a regime is detestable foreign intervention is justified and forcible overthrow is legitimate is extremely dangerous. That could ultimately jeopardise the very maintenance of international law and order.”
French rep to UNSC, on Vietnamese intervention in Cambodia, 1978
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Many interventions
UN: Somalia (1992-95), Bosnia (1992-95), Cambodia (1992-93), East Timor (1999)
Coalition: northern Iraq (1991)
ECOWAS: Liberia (1990), Sierra Leone (1997)
CIS: Tajikistan (1993), Georgia (1992)
NATO: Kosovo (1999)
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Serb thugs in action
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UN impotence
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Failure at Srebrenica
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Somalia: mission over (1993)
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Lessons from intervention failures
SOMALIA (1992-1994)
dangers of crossing the consent divide
BOSNIA (1992-1995)
dangers from peace spoilers
need to induce consent
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Shadow of Somalia
Agenda for Peace (1992) v. Supplement to an Agenda for Peace (1995)
PDD-25 The Clinton Administration’s Policy on Reforming Multilateral Peace Operations (1994)
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Rwandan genocide
800,000 massacred in 100 days (April-July 1994)
Hutu extremists v. Tutsi and Hutu moderates
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Causes of civil war
Mary Kaldor – ‘new wars’: identity, non-state actors, and low-tech.
Paul Collier – greed v. grievance: economic motives
Stuart Kaufman – elite manipulation v. mass moments: myths about ‘ancient hatreds’
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Road to genocide
Elite manipulation of tribal identity
Collapse in commodity prices
French military support to Hutu extremists
Tutsi RPF assault on Kigali in 1993 leads to inclusion of Tutsis in govt
The trigger: shooting down President’s plane (6 April 1994)
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Rwanda, 1994
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UN disgrace
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UN Response
UNAMIR reduced from 2,500 to 270 (21 April)
UNSCR 918 expands force to 5,500 (17 May)
2,300 strong French force create “Humanitarian Protection Zone” (9 July)
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Could intervention have worked?
the French success?
pace of slaughter?
UNAMIR warned of genocide
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Politics of HI: public opinion
1. ‘CNN effect’: dependent on degree of policy certainty and political unity
2. ‘Bodybags effect’: misunderstood by policymakers
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Politics of HI: UNSC politics
log-rolling problem
veto problem
posturing problem
co-ordination problem
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Peace ops: principles and practicalities
Objective – often ambiguous and unattainable
Unity of effort – divergent troop contributors
Mass – dispersal of forces
Surprise – little speed and secrecy in peace operations
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Peace ops: public opinion and operational pathologies
Strategic compression of battlefield
Full-force protection
Over-reliance on air power
Focus on exit strategies
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Doctrine of International Community
Are we sure of our case?
Have we exhausted diplomatic options?
Does the military instrument offer prudent and achievable goals?
Are we prepared to be in this for the long term?
Is our national interest truly engage?
Tony Blair, Chicago, 22 April 1999
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The future of humanitarian intervention?
Evolving norm
– state practice over time
– each intervention ‘unique’?
International Criminal Court: agent for action
R2P, Kosovo and Iraq – rising powers push back
Western appetite post Iraq and Afghanistan?