Human Resource Management Review - … · Jack Welch is most often credited with popularizing the...

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Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on job performance Sue H. Moon a, , Steven E. Scullen b , Gary P. Latham c a College of Management, Long Island University b College of Business and Public Administration, Drake University c Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto article info abstract Article history: Received 12 July 2012 Received in revised form 22 October 2015 Accepted 22 December 2015 Available online xxxx The forced distribution rating system (FDRS) is frequently used to appraise an employee's per- formance. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize theory and empirical research to present an integrative model for understanding the potential benets and risks of a FDRS on the three components of job performance: task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance. A FDRS may lead to higher task performance in the relatively short-term, as it initially motivates effort as well as helps attract and retain top talent. Caution is in order, however, as a FDRS may also lead to lower citizenship performance and higher counterproductive performance through injustice perceptions and dysfunctional competition. Over time, the risks of a FDRS on job performance may increasingly outweigh initial benets, particularly under certain task (inter- dependence) and group (cultural) characteristics. Implications of a FDRS for human resource management research and practice are discussed. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The forced distribution rating system (FDRS) is a performance appraisal system that forces supervisors to distribute a predetermined percentage of employees in categories based on their employees' performance relative to other employees' perfor- mance. Jack Welch is most often credited with popularizing the FDRS (Lawler, 2002; Naughton & Peyser, 2004). Under his lead- ership, General Electric's (GE) FDRS involved a 20/70/10 vitality curve(Welch, 2001). Specically, supervisors identied the top 20%,”“vital 70%,and bottom 10%of their subordinates. Those in the top 20% received raises two to three times greater than those given to the vital 70%, who were given solidincreases. Those in the bottom 10%, in contrast, received nothing and often were red. Although GE's 20/70/10 distribution is considered something of a standard (Becker, Huselid, & Beatty, 2009; Boehle, 2008), the FDRS is by no means unique to GE. For example, supervisors at both Ford and Goodyear have evaluated employees using a 10/80/10 distribution (Osborne & McCann, 2004). It is estimated that about 30% of America's highest ranked (Fortune 500) companies have used variations of a FDRS (Ovide & Feintzeig, 2013). These companies include Amazon, Cisco Systems, and Dell. The dening characteristic of a FDRS are as follows: Supervisors are required to rate their employees' performance relative to other employees' performance; and, based on this appraisal, assign employees to predetermined performance categories. The number of performance categories is usually between three and ve, and comparable to a normal distribution or bell-shaped curve there are typically smaller percentages of employees in the top and bottom performance categories, with most employees being rated in the middle categories (e.g., General Electric's 20/70/10, Ford's 10/80/10 distributions). These performance Human Resource Management Review xxx (2015) xxxxxx Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.H. Moon), [email protected] (S.E. Scullen), [email protected] (G.P. Latham). HUMRES-00529; No of Pages 14 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002 1053-4822/© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Human Resource Management Review journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/humres Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et al., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on job performance, Human Resource Management Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

Transcript of Human Resource Management Review - … · Jack Welch is most often credited with popularizing the...

Page 1: Human Resource Management Review - … · Jack Welch is most often credited with popularizing the FDRS ... Under his lead-ership, General Electric's (GE) FDRS involved a 20/70/10

Human Resource Management Review xxx (2015) xxx–xxx

HUMRES-00529; No of Pages 14

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Human Resource Management Review

j ourna l homepage: www.e lsev ie r .com/ locate /humres

Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution ratingsystems on job performance

Sue H. Moon a,⁎, Steven E. Scullen b, Gary P. Lathamc

a College of Management, Long Island Universityb College of Business and Public Administration, Drake Universityc Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

a r t i c l e i n f o

⁎ Corresponding author.E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.H. Moon), st

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.0021053-4822/© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et aperformance, Human Resource Managemen

a b s t r a c t

Article history:Received 12 July 2012Received in revised form 22 October 2015Accepted 22 December 2015Available online xxxx

The forced distribution rating system (FDRS) is frequently used to appraise an employee's per-formance. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize theory and empirical research to presentan integrative model for understanding the potential benefits and risks of a FDRS on the threecomponents of job performance: task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance. A FDRSmay lead to higher task performance in the relatively short-term, as it initially motivates effortas well as helps attract and retain top talent. Caution is in order, however, as a FDRS may alsolead to lower citizenship performance and higher counterproductive performance throughinjustice perceptions and dysfunctional competition. Over time, the risks of a FDRS on jobperformance may increasingly outweigh initial benefits, particularly under certain task (inter-dependence) and group (cultural) characteristics. Implications of a FDRS for human resourcemanagement research and practice are discussed.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

The forced distribution rating system (FDRS) is a performance appraisal system that forces supervisors to distribute apredetermined percentage of employees in categories based on their employees' performance relative to other employees' perfor-mance. Jack Welch is most often credited with popularizing the FDRS (Lawler, 2002; Naughton & Peyser, 2004). Under his lead-ership, General Electric's (GE) FDRS involved a 20/70/10 “vitality curve” (Welch, 2001). Specifically, supervisors identified the “top20%,” “vital 70%,” and “bottom 10%” of their subordinates. Those in the top 20% received raises two to three times greater thanthose given to the vital 70%, who were given “solid” increases. Those in the bottom 10%, in contrast, received nothing andoften were fired. Although GE's 20/70/10 distribution is considered something of a standard (Becker, Huselid, & Beatty, 2009;Boehle, 2008), the FDRS is by no means unique to GE. For example, supervisors at both Ford and Goodyear have evaluatedemployees using a 10/80/10 distribution (Osborne & McCann, 2004). It is estimated that about 30% of America's highest ranked(Fortune 500) companies have used variations of a FDRS (Ovide & Feintzeig, 2013). These companies include Amazon, CiscoSystems, and Dell.

The defining characteristic of a FDRS are as follows: Supervisors are required to rate their employees' performance relative toother employees' performance; and, based on this appraisal, assign employees to predetermined performance categories. Thenumber of performance categories is usually between three and five, and – comparable to a normal distribution or bell-shapedcurve – there are typically smaller percentages of employees in the top and bottom performance categories, with most employeesbeing rated in the middle categories (e.g., General Electric's 20/70/10, Ford's 10/80/10 distributions). These performance

[email protected] (S.E. Scullen), [email protected] (G.P. Latham).

l., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on jobt Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

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categories are, in turn, typically linked to decisions affecting compensation, promotion, and termination. Hence, the FDRS is oftenreferred to in the business community as “forced ranking,” “stack ranking,” “the bell curve,” or “rank and yank” (Eichenwald,2012; Holland, 2006; Kantor & Streitfeld, 2015). Despite significant controversy surrounding the practice, this FDRS continuesto be used in many large organizations.

Based on computational modeling, Scullen, Bergey, and Aiman-Smith (2005) showed that a FDRS initially leads to improve-ment in a firm's workforce potential. In a laboratory experiment, Berger, Harbring, and Sliwka (2013) showed that productivityon a task requiring independent work effort was higher in a forced distribution as compared to a baseline condition. Whilethese studies contribute important insights, under-specified in the current literature is how social and psychological factors inthe context of organizations influence the performance effects of a FDRS. As we further discuss in this paper, a FDRS may leadto dysfunctional competition and perceptions of injustice, and in turn less helping and more sabotage behaviors. These are criticalfactors to consider because job performance in real organizations often requires teamwork rather than independent work effort.

The purpose of this paper is to advance theory on the effects of a FDRS by reasoning about its potential benefits and risks onjob performance, and the conditions under which its risks are expected to outweigh potential benefits. Toward this end, the paperis organized into three main sections. First, background information and existing literature is briefly reviewed. Second, an integra-tive model of the effects of a FDRS on the three components of job performance is proposed, with seven sets of research propo-sitions flowing from this model. Through this integrative model, we explain how and why a FDRS may initially have positiveeffects on task performance, but over time have negative effects on citizenship and counterproductive performance, such thatthe practice may eventually become detrimental to employees' overall job performance and by extension organizational perfor-mance – particularly when applied in organizational contexts that require high levels of task interdependence and social supportamong comparison others. As we further discuss below, in reasoning about the underlying processes through which a FDRS affectsjob performance, we assume that the organization is using the practice as a “stand alone” system (i.e., not in conjunction withother performance appraisal practices) based on valid performance criteria. Finally, based on the integrative model, we concludewith implications for human resource management research and practice.

2. Background information on forced distribution rating systems

2.1. Performance appraisal criteria

In general, Grote (2005) advocates use of the company's core values or, where possible, the list of job competencies that areimportant to a firm. The criteria against which performance was assessed at General Electric (GE) were the company's four E's ofleadership: high energy, ability to energize others, edge to make tough decisions, and ability to execute and deliver on promises(Welch, 2001). Sanofi-Aventis used data on sales numbers, client relationships, product and service knowledge, and call reportingand documentation (Boehle, 2008). At Microsoft, employee performance was rated against previously identified job goals (Amalfe& Steiner, 2005).

2.2. Research on forced distribution rating systems

There is a paucity of research on the FDRS. Blume, Baldwin, and Rubin (2009) studied how potential applicants' attraction toan organization is influenced by four FDRS elements: (1) extent of rewards for high performance; (2) extent of consequences forlow performance; (3) frequency of performance feedback; and, (4) size of comparison group. College students read descriptions ofjobs in different companies that use different types of FDRSs. They then rated the attractiveness of those jobs. What the studentsfound most attractive in a FDRS were: high monetary rewards for high performance; frequent performance feedback; and, largecomparison group sizes. The severity of the consequences for low performance – particularly, job dismissal – had a negative im-pact on their judgment of a FDRS.

In a subsequent study, Blume, Rubin, and Baldwin (2013) found that respondents who scored higher on a cognitive ability testindicated greater attraction to an organization using a FDRS than those who had lower scores. The researchers reasoned that thismay be due to those with higher cognitive ability anticipating success in acquiring the job knowledge needed to perform well.There was a significant interaction between collectivistic values and perceptions of the fairness of a FDRS. Respondents whoscored high on collectivism were particularly sensitive to perceived lack of fairness in a FDRS. Collectivists value group welfareover individual rewards, and therefore are averse to a system that they perceive unfairly rewards some team members andpunishes others.

While Blume et al. (2009, 2013) examined the FDRS from the perspective of potential ratees, Schleicher, Bull, and Green(2009) examined this practice from the perspective of potential raters. MBA students and managers reported that appraisingperformance was more difficult and less fair using a FDRS than a performance rating system where individuals are rated againstan absolute standard (e.g., meets or exceeds sales goal). This was especially true if the raters perceived relatively little perfor-mance variability among employees, and if their evaluations were linked to administrative decisions such as salary raises, promo-tions, or terminations.

Berger et al. (2013) compared the performance effects of a forced distribution compared to an absolute rating condition.Productivity was 6 to 12% higher under the forced distribution condition. The performance benefits of the FDRS were lower, how-ever, when workers had previously been exposed to the absolute rating condition. In addition, workers in the forced distributioncondition were twice as likely as those in the absolute rating condition to sabotage others when the option to do so was available.

Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et al., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on jobperformance, Human Resource Management Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

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At the organizational level of analysis, Scullen et al. (2005) used computational modeling to examine the impact of the FDRSon an organization's workforce potential. Over the first few iterations of a FDRS, an organization can significantly improve theperformance potential of its workforce. This initial improvement, however, falls to nearly zero over the next few iterations. Thereason for this decreasing rate of improvement is that as low potential employees are removed (and are hopefully replacedwith higher-potential applicants), the lower end of the distribution of employee performance potential becomes increasinglyhigher. As this continues over subsequent iterations, it becomes increasingly difficult for an organization to attract and hire appli-cants whose potential is higher than that of the lowest-ranked employees who had been recently terminated.

3. Integrative model: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on job performance

3.1. Clarification of independent and dependent variables

Given that the FDRS is a performance management tool, its effects on job performance warrants thoughtful consideration. Asnoted earlier, job performance has three components: task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance (Rotundo &Sackett, 2002). Task performance refers to behaviors that contribute to the production of a good, or the provision of a service,and behaviors formally recognized as part of the job (Borman & Motowidlo, 1993). Citizenship performance refers to behaviorsthat contribute to the organization's psychological and social well being yet are not necessarily formally recognized as part ofan employee's job (Organ, 1988). Counterproductive performance refers to volitional behaviors that threaten an organization'swell being (e.g., blaming others, stealing supplies) (Robinson & Bennett, 1995).

3.2. Overview of integrative model

A central thesis of our integrative model is that a FDRS may benefit what has traditionally been recognized as job performance(task performance), but does so at the expense of citizenship performance. Furthermore, it may lead to counterproductive perfor-mance. That is, in the short-run, a FDRS may increase employee effort as well as help attract and retain high ability employees,and therefore increase task performance. Yet, the FDRS may in the longer run decrease citizenship and increase counterproductiveperformance, as it may engender injustice perceptions and dysfunctional competition, especially under certain conditions. As aFDRS has negative effects on citizenship and counterproductive performance over time, and thus the psychological, social, andorganizational context that serves as a catalyst for task activities and processes (Borman & Motowidlo, 1997), negative effectson task performance and overall job performance may eventually follow – particularly when a FDRS is applied to jobs or in con-texts that emphasize teamwork or social interdependence. These propositions are summarized in Fig. 1.

3.3. Domain, boundary conditions, and assumptions

We conceptualize our integrative model mainly at the individual level and hence draw primarily on theory at this level ofanalysis. While we do not explicitly focus on group dynamics, we do consider the moderating role of task characteristics andcultural constructs on the effects of a FDRS on an individual's performance. Furthermore, as a FDRS is reasoned to affect an

Fig. 1. The effects of the FDRS on job performance.

Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et al., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on jobperformance, Human Resource Management Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

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individual's task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance, it follows that a FDRS affects employees' overall job perfor-mance, and by extension organizational performance. Additionally, three assumptions underlie our propositions:

i. The FDRS is being used as a “stand alone” performance evaluation system, rather than in combination with other methods(e.g., absolute rating system, group-based appraisals). While we do not attempt to describe and analyze the wide variety ofways organizations may want to cluster elements of their performance evaluation system and their effects, we do discuss inthe “Human resource management implications” section how organizational decision-makers may want to use a FDRS in com-bination with other human resource management practices to mitigate its risks.

ii. The organization has invested the resources necessary for a FDRS to be technically sound, including training raters(e.g., supervisors) and using valid performance criteria. As we discuss within our integrative model, however, the extentof objectivity in performance criteria and therefore the risk of bias and injustice perceptions will depend in part on the char-acteristics of the job (e.g., task identity). Similarly, we assume that the organization provides comparison others with equalaccess to the resources (e.g., training, equipment) necessary to perform their jobs.

iii. As is often the case with ratings from performance evaluations (Ferris, Munyon, Basik, & Buckley, 2008; Landy & Farr, 1980),we assume that ratings from the FDRS are linked to administrative decisions, particularly higher pay associated with a top per-formance ranking and the potential for termination associated with a bottom performance ranking (e.g.Kwoh, 2012, Welch,2001, 2005).

No integrative model can account for all possible relations. In the interest of parsimony, we illustrate key variables based on areview of the literature. In addition, as we discuss below, there may be offsetting relations among the criterion variables. Forexample, Halbesleben and Bowler (2007) suggested that individuals engage in higher levels of citizenship performance whenthey fear their task performance falls below managerial expectations. The goal of our model is to provide insights that may stim-ulate future theorizing and empirical research, including assessment of the model's boundary conditions and assumptions.

3.4. Potential benefits

3.4.1. Minimizes rater leniency and motivates employee effortWhile Welch has been credited with popularizing the FDRS (e.g., Kwoh, 2012), the practice had its beginning in the years be-

tween World Wars I and II (Cappelli, 2009). After World War I, officers in the U.S. Army were rated against an absolute standard,namely the extent to which they exhibited certain traits or behaviors (e.g., “leadership,” “ability to obtain results”). Ratings wereon a Likert type scale, typically ranging from 1 (unsatisfactory) to 5 (satisfactory) (Sisson, 1948). While these ratings appeared tobe valid for identifying exceptionally poor performers, ratings were typically inflated.

Just prior to World War II, the U.S. Army needed to quickly promote top performers to serve as generals of the rapidly mobi-lizing forces (Sisson, 1948). Because most of the officers had been rated as excellent or superior, the absolute rating system wasinadequate for identifying top performers. The Army therefore devised a “relative rating system,” whereby officers were ratedrelative to one another.

The initial logic for using a FDRS – that is, to curtail rater leniency – remains the same today. As Bretz, Milkovich, and Read(1992) noted, organizations using absolute rating systems with five levels to differentiate employees typically find that onlythree categories are used very often in practice. Often sixty to 70% of employees are rated in the top two categories, and thebottom category is often empty. In short, a disproportionate number of employees are rated as above average when an absoluterating system is used.

Welch (2005) argued that a FDRS promotes candor on where an employee stands relative to others. Research also suggeststhat some employees are motivated to work harder when they initially receive negative feedback (Kluger & DeNisi, 1996). Inaddition, employees are likely to act on feedback that is linked to human resource management decisions such as salary increasesor job terminations (Boswell & Boudreau, 2002). Reliable and valid data that differentiate high, average, and poor performers mayalso assist organizations in providing employees with customized training programs (Jawahar & Williams, 1997). A FDRS may alsohave an “incentive effect,” as managers reward top performers with raises and promotions, while awarding less pay to averageperformers and potentially dismissing those at the bottom (Rynes, Gerhart, & Parks, 2005). Likewise, performance feedbackfrom a FDRS may motivate effort by conveying symbolic meaning to employees with respect to their competence and status inthe organization (Jenkins, Mitra, Gupta, & Shaw, 1998).

The consequences for employees in the bottom category may also signal to co-workers that management does not toleratesubstandard performance. Laboratory experiments show that observing a co-worker being punished for low output increasesproduction more than seeing a low-performing co-worker go unpunished (Schnake & Durnler, 1989). Berger et al. (2013)found that productivity was 6 to 12% higher in a forced distribution compared to absolute rating condition – even as total payoutwas higher in the latter condition, as there were more employees being rated in the top two of five performance categories(approximately 80% vs. 30%) as supervisors were not forced to differentiate among them, and therefore more workers receivingthe rewards associated with the top two ratings (approximately $13 & $10 US). As Berger et al. (2013) stated: “The reason forthis substantial gain in performance is that many supervisors in the baseline [absolute rating] setting are very lenient in theirrating decisions, and hence, performance incentives are weak” (p. 65). Taken together, we predict that:

Proposition 1. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, motivates greater effort toward task performance than does an absoluterating system.

Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et al., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on jobperformance, Human Resource Management Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

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3.4.2. Helps attract and retain high performersA FDRS may have a “sorting effect” through differential attraction and retention processes (Rynes et al., 2005). Research sug-

gest that employees who are relatively high in cognitive ability (Blume et al., 2013; Trank, Rynes, & Bretz, 2002), self-efficacy(Cable & Judge, 1994), and need for achievement (Turban & Keon, 1993) are more likely to be attracted to organizations that re-ward employees based on job performance. This is because high potential applicants appear to be attracted to organizationswhere their talents are likely to be recognized and flourish. By attracting high ability employees, this can motivate existing em-ployees to continually challenge themselves to improve their performance to remain competitive with new recruits.

Conversely, in organizations that do not reward employees based on their performance, high performers may compare theirinputs (e.g., effort, talent) and outcomes (e.g., pay, status) relative to low performers. Equity theory (Adams, 1965) suggeststhat they are likely to then reduce their effort or leave the organization (Carrell & Dittrich, 1978). A study of 984 engineers inhigh technology companies supports the contention that differentiation helps firms to retain “star” employees, while eliminatinglow performers. Firms that rewarded high performance had very high performers who wanted to remain, and very low per-formers who wanted to leave (Zenger, 1992).

As noted previously, it was found that individuals with higher cognitive ability are more attracted to a forced distribution thanan absolute rating system (Blume et al., 2013). A FDRS may ensure high ability employees that a predetermined percentage ofemployees will be recognized and rewarded, thereby protecting them from the possibility of “stingy” management who are reluc-tant to administer rewards commensurate with certain individuals' disproportionately large contributions to firm performance(Berger et al., 2013). Taken together, compared to an absolute rating system, we reason that a FDRS will initially lead to greatertask performance through the attraction and retention of higher ability employees:

Proposition 2a. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, attracts higher ability applicants and thereby motivates existingemployees to improve their task performance to remain competitive with new recruits.

Proposition 2b. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, leads to greater task performance through the retention of highperformers, as these employees are more likely to view the organizations as a place where they will be recognized and rewarded fortheir high performance.

3.4.3. Summary of potential benefitsA FDRS may initially lead to greater task performance through incentive and sorting effects. The potential for rewards and the

threat of punishment may motivate employees to maximize their potential (Rynes et al., 2005). While those who are ranked inthe top performance category may be rewarded generously (e.g., via praise, pay, & promotion), those who deliver relativelylow performance may face punishments such as job termination. This differentiation, in turn, may attract high potential applicantswho view the organization as a place where their contributions will be acknowledged. However, these potential benefits mayeventually be outweighed by risks.

3.5. Risks

3.5.1. Perceptions of organizational injusticeRating theory (Wherry & Bartlett, 1982) explains why categorizations of employees in a FDRS may be inaccurate. Performance

rankings may be largely beyond an employee's control, as they are partially dependent on the behaviors of co-workers. In addi-tion, a ranking reflects a supervisor's recall of the employee's behavior relative to other members of the team. Consequently, thereis the danger of supervisors misidentifying more “competent” employees as less competent, particularly given that in any organi-zation some teams are invariably better staffed than others (Latham & Wexley, 1994; Lawler, 2002). Specifically, competentemployees may be judged as falling in the bottom category if they happen to be on a team of exceptional performers, whereasthey might have been ranked in the top category if they had been on a team of relatively poor performers.

With a FDRS, a predetermined percentage of even an all-star team must be placed in the bottom performance category andthus face the possibility of job termination (Pfeffer & Sutton, 2006). This is especially problematic when each individual on ateam plays a unique and integral role (Greenwald, McCalope, Marchant, & Terdiman, 2001). As a result, a FDRS is likely to be per-ceived as unfair, compared to an absolute rating system, because the former can lead to more inconsistent and inaccurate ratings,particularly as the composition of one's comparison group changes (Roch, Sternburgh, & Caputo, 2007; Wherry & Bartlett, 1982).

Theory states that perceptions of organizational (in)justice are at least three-fold: distributive, procedural, and interpersonal(Colquitt, Conlon, Wesson, Porter, & Ng, 2001). Distributive justice refers to the perceived fairness of outcomes (e.g., anemployee's performance evaluation), while procedural justice refers to employees' perceptions of the fairness of the proceduresused to arrive at the outcome. Interpersonal justice refers to the degree to which people perceive that they are treated withrespect.

Employee perceptions of organizational injustice have been linked to low citizenship and highly counterproductive perfor-mance (Cohen-Charash & Spector, 2001). Skarlicki and Latham (1996, 1997) showed that training leaders on organizationaljustice principles increased levels of citizenship performance among employees. Conversely, Skarlicki and Folger (1997) showedthat perceptions of distributive, procedural, and interpersonal injustice interact to predict retaliation in the workplace. As aFDRS may increase perceptions of organizational injustice, their study suggests that employees may attempt to “get even”(e.g., through theft, vandalism, or sabotage). Relatedly, based on the results of more than 1000 daily diary recordings from

Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et al., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on jobperformance, Human Resource Management Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

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100 employees in various industries, Ferris, Spence, Heller, and Brown (2012) found that perceptions of interpersonal injustice arerelated to less citizenship performance (e.g., “refused to help a co-worker,” “withheld work-related information from a co-worker”) and more counterproductive performance (e.g., “purposely came to work or came back from lunch breaks late,” “wasnasty to a fellow-co-worker”).

Colquitt (2004) reported that employees care not only about being treated fairly themselves, but also that their co-workers aretreated fairly. Given the likelihood for causing perceptions of injustice, many managers find a FDRS more difficult to implementthan an absolute rating system, and therefore often resist it (Schleicher et al., 2009). Even Welch (2001) acknowledged that,“Managers will play every game in the book to avoid naming their bottom 10. Sometimes they'll sneak in people who were plan-ning to retire that year, or include others who have already been told to leave the organization” (p. 161). This is an example ofboth low citizenship and high counterproductive performance. Indeed, a survey of 227 human resource management profes-sionals suggests that some managers retain incompetent employees so they can rank them in the bottom category during thenext performance appraisal (Novations Group, 2004). In doing so, managers are likely to discredit the FDRS and further contributeto employees' negative perceptions of its fairness (Lawler, 2002).

Relatedly, employees may perceive the misuse of supervisors' reward and coercive power as a result of the FDRS (or supervi-sors' enhanced ability to influence employees' behavior through the administration of desirable [e.g., raises, bonuses] and unde-sirable outcomes [e.g., probation, termination]). Moreover, this may come at the expense of more effective, personal bases ofpower, namely, expert and referent power (French & Raven, 1959; Podsakoff & Schriesheim, 1985; Yukl & Falbe, 1991). Percep-tions of procedural and interactional justice may suffer, potentially decreasing employee helping behavior and increasing sabotagebehavior.

Proposition 3. A FDRS, compared to absolute rating system, leads to less citizenship performance and more counterproductiveperformance through greater perceptions of injustice.

3.5.2. Dysfunctional competitionA FDRS fosters a dysfunctionally competitive (vs. co-operative) situation as performance ratings are dependent on an

employee's relative standing among employees, and therefore rewards for some employees prevent rewards for others(Beersma et al., 2003). Competitive situations may cause an employee to focus on the attainment of personal goals over groupgoals (Deutsch, 1949), and therefore reduce the propensity for “group helping” or “backing up behavior,” particularly when itis apparent the group members are failing to reach the group's goals (Porter, 2005). As Deutsch (1949) theorized, not only isgroup-helping behavior less likely, it is also more likely that there will be hindering behavior. For example, as group members'behaviors are perceived in terms of their effects on one's relative standing, there is more likely to be distortion and conflict inthe communication process.

Studies have shown that people are less willing to cooperate and more likely to dysfunctionally compete with others whenthey are close to attaining, or falling out of, a given performance category (Garcia & Tor, 2007; Garcia, Tor, & Gonzalez, 2006).In these studies, participants were asked to imagine being the CEO of a company ranked near the top (#3), well within(#104), or at the bottom (#500) of the prestigious Fortune 500 list of America's largest corporations. They were asked to decidewhether they would enter into a joint venture, with a company ranked one position below them (i.e., at #4, #105, or just off thelist at #501) in which both companies' profits would increase by 6%. Without the joint venture, their company's profit would in-crease by 5%, and their rival's profit would increase by 1%. Participants were significantly less willing to enter a joint venture andmaximize joint gains if their company was ranked near the top (#3) or at the bottom (#500) of the Fortune 500 as compared towell within it (#104).

When employees perceive that they are close to a border between performance categories (e.g., just barely in the top perfor-mance category, or in danger of slipping into the bottom category), they are less willing to help their co-workers because of theperceived benefits and consequences associated with being in one category versus another. Competing rather than co-operatingwith coworkers in such situations is arguably rational from an employee's perspective (e.g., to avoid being ranked in a lowercategory), especially as an individual's task performance is typically weighted more heavily than citizenship performance in per-formance appraisals (Bergeron, 2007). Thus, employees may become selective about the colleagues whom they choose to help. Anemployee near the top performance category (e.g., near the 20/70 dividing line in the case of General Electric's 20/70/10 forceddistribution) may help a colleague who is in danger of slipping into the bottom performance category, yet refuse to help anothercolleague who is near the top category dividing line.

A FDRS is in many ways a “promotion tournament,” which economic theory suggests elicits undesirable behaviors (Lazear &Rosen, 1981). Promotion tournaments are common in occupations where monitoring how individuals complete work tasks isdifficult (e.g., academia, law). There are three key characteristics of a promotion tournament: (1) who will win is uncertain;(2) winning is based on relative performance; and, (3) there are large differences between the payoffs for winners and losers(Ehrenberg, Smith, & Chaykowski, 2004). Becker and Huselid (1992) found that as the financial difference between winningand losing increases, so do race drivers' performance. And when the difference is especially large, drivers are more likely toengage in hazardous behavior that jeopardizes the safety of others. Pfeffer and Langton (1993) found that the greater the paydispersion within academic departments, the less likely it is that faculty members will collaborate on research. Pay dispersionoften promote dysfunctional competition by inciting jealousy and resentment, which in turn damage social relationships in the

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workplace. As noted earlier, Berger et al. (2013) found that workers were twice as likely under a FDRS, compared to an absoluterating system, to sabotage a co-worker's performance when the opportunity was available.

A study of golf players demonstrated that, contrary to common sense, tournaments can have the adverse incentive effect ofreducing effort when there are large differences in abilities among individuals. Brown (2011) found that when competitors aresimilar in ability, they are motivated to expend extra effort to win a tournament. When these same players are competing againstothers with superior abilities (e.g., Tiger Woods during his “hot” periods), they are not as motivated to expend effort because theyperceive their probability of winning as low. This study suggests an additional risk of the FDRS, namely, withholding effort whencompeting against star performers. Many employees are likely to conclude that they are unable to be ranked in the top perfor-mance category. However, if the top performance category is relatively large, this may lead “stars” with superior abilities tofeel unappreciated. Consequently, while the size of the specific performance categories may be arbitrary (e.g., top 2% vs. 20%),the size of these categories may lead to real differences in employees' behaviors.

Proposition 4a. A FDRS, compared to absolute rating systems, may lead to lower citizenship performance and greater counterproduc-tive performance due to dysfunctional competition.

Proposition 4b. Dysfunctional competition is stronger among employees who perceive that their current standing places them relative-ly close to a meaningful cut-off point between FDRS categories.

Proposition 4c. Competent employees who perceive they are being compared to “superstars,” and believe they are unlikely to beranked in a top category under a FDRS will withhold full effort.

3.5.3. Summary of risksA FDRS may lead to perceived injustice and dysfunctional competition. Perceptions of injustice are in turn linked to lower

citizenship performance and higher counterproductive performance (Cohen-Charash & Spector, 2001; Colquitt et al., 2001).Additionally, under a FDRS, there are negative correlations among group members' rewards. Consequently, as dysfunctional com-petition ensues, employees may not help, and may even hinder, the performance of others.

3.6. Relation among task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance

Borman and Motowidlo (1997) reasoned that citizenship and counterproductive behaviors are important because they “shapethe organizational, social, and psychological context that serves as the catalyst for task activities and processes” (p. 100). As cit-izenship behavior decreases and counterproductive behavior increases, the negative effects of a FDRS on the organizational, social,and psychological context are likely to extend to employees' effectiveness in performing activities that contribute to theorganization's technical core: task performance. Although these relations have not been examined in prior research with respectto the FDRS and therefore their precise nature and direction are unclear, it is reasoned that task performance may increase in theshort-run, but then decrease along with the practice's detrimental effects on citizenship and counterproductive performance inthe longer-run.1 Taken together, we theorize that the effects of a FDRS on task performance and overall job performance maybe curvilinear over time. The offsetting relations among task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance under a FDRSover time are illustrated in Fig. 2.

As it is the combined effects of task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance and, in turn, overall job performance thatshould be salient to the organization, we specify the conditions (moderating variables) under which the potential benefits of aFDRS are likely to be outweighed by its costs. For example, in addition to time, we theorize that a FDRS is less likely to be effectivein jobs characterized by high levels of task interdependence and contexts that emphasize teamwork and collectivism.

3.7. Moderating variables

Time and organizational contexts are reasoned to be boundary conditions that influence the effect of a FDRS on task, citizen-ship, and counterproductive performance.

3.7.1. TimeIn most organizations that use a FDRS, the ranking process occurs annually (Grote, 2005). Welch (2001) claimed that, “Year

after year, differentiation raises the bar higher and higher and increases the overall calibre of the organization” (p. 158). Asnoted earlier, Scullen et al. (2005), using computational modeling, found that an organization's gains from a FDRS eventually di-minish to nearly zero because initially it is relatively easy to identify and terminate poor performers. But it becomes increasinglydifficult with each iteration of the FDRS to hire employees who are superior to those who were terminated.

An individual's performance is dynamic. The typical organizational tenure-job performance relationship is characterized by aninverted U-shaped curve. Performance usually increases during an employee's early years in an organization, but eventuallydecreases or plateaus (Sturman, 2003). Performance may also vary over time due to factors beyond an employee's control,such as changing technological, social, and economic conditions. Furthermore, an employee whose level of performance is

1 We thank an anonymous reviewer for raising the possibility of offsetting relations among the model's criterion variables over time.

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Fig. 2. Task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance under a FDRS over time.

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consistent across time may be ranked higher at one point in time and lower at a subsequent point only because supervisoryperformance ratings are subjective (Sturman, Cheramie, & Cashen, 2005). Variability is especially likely when different managersare ranking the same employee's performance (Viswesvaran, Ones, & Schmidt, 1996). In addition, as high performing employeesreplace relatively low performing employees, the relative standing of mid-range employees will almost certainly decrease. Em-ployees who experience declines in their standing over time will also experience a decline in rewards. This may have negativeeffects on their morale, and result in the withholding of effort (Clark, Masclet, & Villeval, 2010).

Workers' reaction to pay is often a function of where they stand in their organization's pay hierarchy, with the most negativereactions occurring among workers whose pay is relatively low in an organization where pay dispersion is relatively wide (Clarket al., 2010; Trevor & Wazeter, 2006). Managers may not be concerned in the short-run about the negative reactions of low per-formers, as they may want these individuals to exit the organization. As more of the low and average performers are eliminatedwith successive iterations of a FDRS, however, the performance variability of the remaining employees may narrow. Consequently,a small decrease in an employee's performance (relative to previous performance) may result in a larger decrease in rankings.Thus it may become increasingly difficult for an employee to be ranked within a higher performance category – or maintaintheir current one – contributing to rankings becoming less stable across time. As even Welch (2001) acknowledged, by thethird iteration of a FDRS, “it's war” (p. 161). Furthermore, a FDRS and its high stakes may contribute to a short-term focus asemployees strive to acquire the relatively aggressive rewards, or avoid the relatively aggressive consequences associated withthe typically annual rankings.

Consistent with the reasoning above, Berger et al. (2013) found that switching from an absolute rating to a forced distributioncondition initially increased effort, but the net effect on performance became negative over time as employees realized, over iter-ations of the practice, that it becomes harder to achieve a ranking in the top performance category. This finding indicates that“history matters” (Berger et al., p. 66), as a FDRS is less likely to be effective if employees have been previously exposed to anabsolute rating system.

Proposition 5a. The short term benefits of a FDRS on task performance may be increasingly outweighed by the costs of lower citizen-ship and higher counterproductive performance over time.

Proposition 5b. A FDRS and the high-stake rewards and punishments associated with this practice may contribute to an employee'sshort-term (e.g., within rating period) rather than long-term focus.

Proposition 5c. A FDRS is less likely to be effective if employees have had previous experience with an absolute rating system.

3.7.2. Organizational context and job characteristicsA survey involving 278 organizations revealed that only a third (32.9%) found a FDRS to be at least “moderately effective”

(Bernthal, Rogers, & Smith, 2003). We propose that the effects of a FDRS on job performance will be affected by the organizationalcontext, particularly the organization's structure and culture, and the resulting way that organizational tasks and decision-makingauthority are formally and informally divided and coordinated among its members. For example, characteristics of a bureaucraticorganizational structure – such as centralized decision-making, standardized job tasks through formalized policies and procedures,and close supervision through narrow spans of control – result in reduced personal discretion and performance variability amongmost employees. Hence, the differentiation that is inherent in a FDRS will be harder to justify, and therefore more likely to leadto perceptions of injustice. Relatedly, when individuals are expected to handle the same input in the same way as they followstandardized systems that co-ordinate collective efforts to yield consistent and uniform output (e.g., assembly line work, fastfood preparation), deviations from standard performance may be undesirable, and “above standard” performance by an individualis less likely to have a large, positive impact on overall firm performance.

On the other hand, a FDRS may be more appropriate in the context of a decentralized organizational structure and thus widerspans of control, because there is less risk of injustice perceptions when the size of comparison groups are large and there issignificant performance variance among employees. In addition, a decentralized organizational structure is associated with higher

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levels of job autonomy. Hackman and Oldham (1975) defined autonomy as the amount of freedom and independence job incum-bents have in completing organizational tasks. For example, scheduling one's work and determining the methods to performtasks (Morgeson & Humphrey, 2006). As jobs high in autonomy involve, by definition, personal judgment and discretionary effort,there is more likely to be performance variability among job incumbents. For such jobs, there may be greater competitionfor top talent – as top talent, coupled with intense and persistent discretionary effort, may have a significant impact on firmperformance (e.g., significantly increasing revenue or decreasing costs through new product or process innovations). Undersuch conditions, a FDRS and the associated differentiation of ratings and rewards may help attract, motivate, and retain toptalent.

While elements of organizational structure can guide and align employees' behaviors, a strong organizational culture mayachieve similar ends through different means (O'Reilly & Chatman, 1996). Organizational culture refers to a system of sharedvalues and norms that help distinguish one organization from another, and help define what are appropriate attitudes and behav-iors for its members (Chatman & Jehn, 1994; Hofstede, Neuijen, Ohayv, & Sanders, 1990). Without necessarily specifying exactlywhen and how organizational tasks are to be completed through formalized systems or procedures, a strong organizationalculture may nonetheless function as a social control mechanism, as widely-shared and deeply entrenched values and normsguide and align employees' attitudes and in turn behaviors.

We suggest that a FDRS is inconsistent with organizational cultures that place strong emphasis on people and teamwork, andinvolve high levels of social support and task interdependence among comparison others for peak performance. For example,Siegel and Hambrick (2005) noted that members of top management teams in high technology settings must constantly engagein scanning behaviors, convey what they discover to team members, and participate in discussions and debates about the inter-pretation and implications of information. Hence, team members need to intensively coordinate and collaborate on activities to beeffective. But, a FDRS and the competitive situation it fosters are likely to undermine the rapid and candid communication ofinformation, while increasing information distortion and dysfunctional competition and conflict (Deutsch, 1949). In addition,those who receive far less rewards may respond with jealousy, while those who receive far more rewards may respond withcondescension, aloofness, and social distancing towards seemingly less worthy group members (Siegel & Hambrick, 2005).

Furthermore, a FDRS could reduce team members' tendency to engage in frequent negotiations and mutual adjustments –behaviors needed for innovation (Siegel & Hambrick, 2005). As discussed earlier, a FDRS and the shift to a competitive situationare likely to impair, rather the foster, collaboration and innovation related behavior. Indeed, Eichenwald (2012) reported thatMicrosoft's FDRS undermined teamwork and in turn firm performance as “a lot of Microsoft employees did everything theycould to avoid working alongside other top-notch developers” (“The Bell Curve,” para. 7) and “not only tried to do a good jobbut also worked hard to make sure their colleagues did not” (“The Bell Curve,” para. 8). A FDRS may also undermine anorganization's ability to attract and retain team players, and top talent who seek an organization that supports collaborationand close relationships with coworkers. In short, a FDRS is less likely to be effective in jobs characterized by complementarityor “connectedness” of work tasks among comparison others – either as work flows from one's job to other jobs or is affectedby work received from other jobs (Kiggundu, 1981).

On the other hand, when there is minimal need for assistance from or collaboration with others and performance is dependenton individual work effort, a FDRS may motivate employees to improve their separate buffered domains. Under such conditions,there may be fewer opportunities for social loafing, and less need for social monitoring. Under these conditions, it may be easierto parcel out or identify an individual's output, making evaluations under a FDRS less subject to political influence (e.g., personalliking, ingratiation) (Kepes, Delery, & Gupta, 2009). In addition, perceptions of injustice are less likely to emerge for jobs in whichreliable, valid, and agreed-upon measures of output are available. Jobs high in task identity – the degree to which a job involvescompleting a whole piece of work, the result of which can be easily identified (Hackman & Oldham, 1975; Morgeson &Humphrey, 2006) – are more likely to be amenable to objective, valid performance criteria. That is, there is less likely to be am-biguity in the contribution of an individual employee when the job consists of creating an entire product or completing an entireunit of service. As a result, there will be greater fairness perceptions associated with a FDRS when jobs are high in task identity,and there are common, valid, and objective performance criteria available for the work performed by comparison others.

Finally, a FDRS is more likely to be sustainable to the extent that there are opportunities to move up (e.g., assistant to associ-ate; analyst to supervisor or manager) or out to another comparison group (or organization) as job incumbents show high (orlow) performance over successive iterations of a FDRS. This helps ensure that the remaining group members are comparable interms of ability and experience. The prospect of promotion, or movement up the organizational or occupational hierarchy, mayalso provide individuals with further motivation for continuous improvement and commitment. In addition, it increases the like-lihood that individuals who occupy higher levels of the organizational hierarchy have direct experience with at least some of thebenefits and risks of a FDRS. Past experience with a FDRS may put raters in a better position to mitigate some of the risks of aFDRS (through, for example, expert power or influence from knowledge and experience). Thus, we propose that:

Proposition 6a. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, is less likely to be effective when applied to jobs that are highlystandardized and low in autonomy.

Proposition 6b. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, is less likely to be effective when applied to jobs that significantlybenefit from task interdependence and when an organizational culture strongly emphasizes teamwork.

Proposition 6c. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, is less likely to be effective when applied to jobs low in task identity.

Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et al., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on jobperformance, Human Resource Management Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

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Proposition 6d. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, is less likely to be effective when applied to jobs in which valid andobjective performance criteria for making comparisons among workers are not available.

3.7.2.1. National culture.While there are variations in values across as well as within (e.g., departments) organizational boundaries,there are even greater variations in values across national boundaries (Hofstede et al., 1990). Individualism versus collectivismdistinguishes members of different national cultures in terms of how they view their relationship with others (Hofstede, 1980;Triandis, 1995). In individualistic cultures (e.g., Canada, Great Britain, the U.S.), workers tend to value achievements that can beattributed to an individual. In collectivistic cultures (e.g., China, India, Japan), workers tend to see themselves as connected toor interdependent with others; hence, they typically focus on shared objectives and commonalities among their group's members.

Individualistic versus collectivistic cultural values influence attraction to and acceptance of various human resource practices(Ramamoorthy & Carroll, 1998). National cultures with individualistic values prefer performance feedback that is tied to anindividual's rewards and consequences (e.g., pay, promotion, termination). In contrast, national cultures with collectivistic valuestend to reward loyalty and commitment of a group's members. As a result, they tend to emphasize seniority over an individual'sachievements; and job security over monetary incentives. Because a FDRS conflicts with collectivistic values, it is less likely to beeffective in a collectivistic society.

Furthermore, a FDRS may be less beneficial in cultures that Hofstede (1980) identified as valuing: (1) equality (vs. hierarchy)because superiors have significantly more power than subordinates under a FDRS; (2) security (vs. risk-taking) because of therisk inherent in a FDRS, particularly the threat of negative consequences for relatively low performance; (3) femininity (vs.masculinity) because the decisive and aggressive treatment of performance problems may conflict with a preference for compas-sion and sensitivity; (4) long-term (vs. short-term) orientation because performance ratings generally do not reflect behaviorbeyond the most recent performance rating time period, and because a FDRS does not support long-term relationships amongemployees.

Proposition 7a. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, is less likely to contribute to job performance within a national culturethat is collectivistic.

Proposition 7b. A FDRS, compared to an absolute rating system, is less likely to contribute to job performance within a national culturethat places high value on equality, security, femininity, and is long-term oriented.

3.8. Summary of integrative model

Our theoretical model integrates and extends on disparate theory and evidence to help unpack the “black box” betweenthe FDRS and job performance. This model explains how and why a FDRS may motivate effort as well as help attract and retainhigh ability employees, and thereby increase task performance. In doing so, however, a FDRS may also provoke injustice percep-tions and dysfunctional competition, which may in turn decrease citizenship performance and increase counterproductive perfor-mance – especially over time. As the psychological and social work environment deteriorate due to the practice's detrimentaleffects on citizenship and counterproductive performance, task performance and overall job performance are likely to be negative-ly affected. Furthermore, we describe the conditions under which the risks of a FDRS are particularly likely to outweigh potentialbenefits, such as the extent to which peak performance on the job requires cooperation and collaboration among comparisonothers, and organizational members value teamwork and collectivism. Fig. 1 summarizes the mechanisms (e.g., mediators,moderators) through which a FDRS is theorized to influence job performance. Fig. 2 summarizes the combined effects of aFDRS on task, citizenship, and counterproductive performance over time.

4. Human resource management implications

4.1. Theoretical implications and suggestions for future research

Much of the discussion on FDRSs in the business community has been on pros and cons of the practice (e.g.Lipman, 2012,Sahadi, 2015, Sher, 2012, White, 2015). Over the past few decades, the FDRS has gone in and out of fashion, only to comeback again (Cappelli, 2009). In the academic literature, evidence from Scullen et al. (2005) suggests that the practice may initiallyincrease afirm'sworkforce potential. This studywaswidely cited by themedia as evidence for the effectiveness of the FDRS (e.g.Jones,2005, McGregor, 2006). As we suggest through the integrative model, however, FDRSs may have numerous unintended conse-quences. Researchers have found that FDRSs may be perceived as less fair by potential raters (Schleicher et al., 2009) and ratees(Blume et al., 2009) and lead to more sabotage behavior (Berger et al., 2013). But whether a FDRS will be on balance beneficial orharmful for overall performance has been an open question – and the answer may be “it depends.”

But it depends on what? Given the considerable impact that FDRSs may have on the performance as well as the social andpsychological well-being of employees and organizations, it is unfortunate that only a few studies have been conducted onFDRSs and the most of what has been done has employed laboratory experiments, computational modeling, university students

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and vignettes (e.g., Berger et al., 2013; Blume et al., 2009, 2013; Giumetti, Schroeder, & Switzer, 2015; Schleicher et al., 2009). As aresult, the academic literature has provided few empirically based insights into the impact of FDRSs in the context of realorganizations.

In this paper, we aim to reconcile divergent perspectives on the efficacy of the FDRS by reasoning about the conditions underwhich its risks are expected to outweigh potential benefits. We encourage future empirical, field research based on our integrativemodel and the propositions flowing from this model. More specifically, researchers may examine the effects of job redesign inreducing risks such as injustice perceptions and dysfunctional competition, or how cultural values (using, for instance, theOrganizational Culture Profile by Caldwell & O'Reilly, 1990) moderate the FDRS's effects on job performance. For instance,while past research has found that a forced distribution may lead to greater sabotage behavior on a task requiring independentwork effort (Berger et al., 2013), future research may seek to examine how a FDRS effects not only task and counterproductiveperformance but also citizenship performance, particularly when applied to jobs requiring varying levels of interdependency orin contexts emphasizing teamwork or collectivism. The passage of time, or perhaps more significantly the number of FDRS cyclesthat are experienced, is another important moderator in our integrative model. A theory that can be leveraged for further explor-ing the moderating effects of time is Bandura's (1986) social cognitive theory.

Social cognitive theory posits three variables that predict, explain, and influence behavior, namely, goal setting, outcome ex-pectancy, and self-efficacy. Goal setting makes concrete what an individual should be exerting effort and persistence to attain,such as being and being seen as a high performer in the organization. Outcome expectancy emphasizes the importance of anindividual seeing the relationship between what one is doing and the outcome that one can expect (e.g., goal attainment).Self-efficacy refers to self-confidence that one can do what is necessary for goal attainment. Because the emphasis in a FDRS ison ranking an individual's performance against other employees' performance, an individual may not see a direct relationshipbetween what she or he is doing and attaining the goal of being ranked a high performer. Hence, outcome expectancy may beweak. Even when outcome expectancy is moderate or strong, an individual may lack the confidence that she or he will be rankedhigher than others in the group. Hence, the person may learn a sense of helplessness and give up.

We believe that our integrative model, coupled with social cognitive theory, suggests potentially important future researchtopics concerning the impact FDRSs might have on the top talent who are often sought by the organizational leaders who imple-ment these systems. As discussed within our model, high achievers may be more likely than the typical applicant to embrace thephilosophy underlying the FDRS. However a FDRS, by definition, limits the number of employees who can obtain the rewardsassociated with being ranked in the top category. Thus, an organization may have more employees who self-identify as highachievers than a FDRS will allow them to recognize. How might this affect outcome expectancy, self-efficacy, and in turn themotivation of members of this select group? Ideally those who fail to secure a top ranking would redouble their efforts to performat a higher level. Perhaps, at least in the short term, many of them would do exactly that, and some will likely succeed. But to theextent that they do, others who see themselves in that light must fall out of the top group.

How will motivation change, especially after a few cycles of the FDRS, in the employees who are sometimes in and sometimesout of the top ranking category – or in those who never achieve the top ranking? Will their views on the relationship between“what they do” and “what they get” change? Will they see this as distributively and procedurally unfair? Will self-efficacy suffer?Will they be any more (or less) likely than other employees to turn to dysfunctional competition? We urge researchers to studyhow members of this important group tend to deal with these issues and what implications this might have on their future task,citizenship, and counterproductive performance. These risks may be exacerbated by the fact that employees' self-ratings ofperformance tend to be higher than ratings from others (e.g., Mount, 1984). Hence, the number of people who see themselvesas outstanding performers likely exceeds the number of people who actually do perform at that level. This suggests that the issuesraised here are not limited to those who truly do perform at the highest level, but are not recognized for it. It probably extends toothers who mistakenly believe that they have performed at that level as well.

Future research might also examine the role of supervisors. For instance, if supervisors are overly lenient or stingy when ratingperformance, a FDRS may preserve incentives by forcing differentiation. As noted in our integrative model, however, a FDRSmay enhance supervisors' reward and coercive power, but it may be at the expense of expert and referent power. Therefore,researchers might also examine how a FDRS relates to supervisors' bases of power, leader-member exchange, and managerialethics. In addition, a FDRS may be inconsistent with values related to not only organizational and national culture, but also de-mography. For instance, Hofstede et al. (1990) argued that demography is a source of deeply held values because it reflects socialmemberships acquired early in life. Indeed, lack of fit between values related to demography and a FDRS may help explain whythis practice has led to numerous lawsuits by women, older workers, and ethnic minorities alleging adverse impact (Amalfe &Steiner, 2005). Therefore, a further suggestion for future research is examining how the FDRS philosophy resonates with valuesthat differ along demographic lines, and how this might affect an organization's ability to attract and retain a diverse workforce.Finally, the model can be expanded to include how and why a FDRS affects outcomes beyond job performance, such as jobsatisfaction and organizational commitment as well as stress, burnout, and turnover.

4.1.1. Limitations of the modelIn theorizing about underlying processes and how and why contextual factors influence the effects of a FDRS on job perfor-

mance, we assume that the organization has invested the resources necessary for the mechanics of the practice to be technicallysound – including training raters (supervisors) and using reasonably valid performance criteria. While beyond the scope of thecurrent model, future research may seek to examine how the design of the FDRS itself and surrounding human resource practices(e.g., 360-degree feedback) can mitigate or perhaps increase risks of the practice.

Please cite this article as: Moon, S.H., et al., Precarious curve ahead: The effects of forced distribution rating systems on jobperformance, Human Resource Management Review (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2015.12.002

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4.2. Practical implications

As noted throughout this paper, the risks of a FDRS are likely to outweigh potential benefits to the extent that the practice isapplied to jobs in which peak performance involves task interdependence and social support from comparison others. A practicalimplication is to avoid a FDRS for such jobs; or redesign the organizational structure and nature of work such that workers' jobsare high in autonomy and task identity. Relatedly, it may be more sensible to adopt a variation of a FDRS. For instance, thepractice might be applied to rate the subset of workers' activities that require independent work effort, and can be measuredusing valid and objective performance criteria, though we note that this will likely shift workers' behavior to activities that aremeasurable to the detriment of other aspects of work behavior.

In addition, a FDRS is more likely to be beneficial for an organization to the extent that serious attention is paid to otherhuman resource practices. A successful implementation of FDRS requires that an organization not only consistently attracts, butalso selects a sufficient number of qualified individuals and places them into jobs that match their knowledge and skills. Addition-ally, it requires the development and application of valid performance criteria. Further, a FDRS on its own does not conveysufficient information on what an employee must start doing, stop doing, or do differently to improve performance. It merelycollapses performance into a single performance category. Therefore, a FDRS may represent a step back from a shift in emphasisfrom performance appraisals to performance management, from evaluating employees to coaching and developing them (Latham,Almost, Mann, & Moore, 2005).

To mitigate risks of the practice and support employee development, it may be beneficial for an organization to engage inhuman resource practices such as 360-degree feedback (e.g., peer, supervisor, customer feedback) and coaching as well as re-warding productive team behavior (e.g., via profit or gain sharing). In addition, a simulation study by Mulligan and Schaefer(2011) suggests that a FDRS with a probation period, rather than immediate termination of employees ranked in the bottomcategory, may help organizations realize some of the initial benefits of a FDRS, while reducing issues with fairness perceptionsand voluntary turnover. In a related vein, applying the FDRS after two, three or even five years, instead of annually or bi-annually, may mitigate the risk of short-term oriented behavior and encourage more long-term planning and action. Finally, aFDRS is more likely to be sustainable to the extent that there are promotion opportunities or well-defined career ladders forthose who exhibit high performance over time.

5. Conclusion

In this paper, we first reviewed research related to the FDRS. Second, we introduced an integrative model on the effects ofthe FDRS on an employee's job performance. Seven propositions flow from this framework. In doing so, we proposed potentialbenefits as well as risks of using a FDRS. Boundary conditions were offered for better predicting, explaining, and managing theperformance effects of a FDRS. Finally, based on our integrative model, we put forth implications for human resource managementresearch and practice. In integrating and building on insights and evidence from multiple literatures, we seek to stimulate futureempirical research and support for an informed choice regarding an appropriate performance appraisal system.

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