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Transcript of Human Face of Development Vladimir Gligorov. Contents River and peoples Mobility Dealing with...
![Page 1: Human Face of Development Vladimir Gligorov. Contents River and peoples Mobility Dealing with institutions Diverging development Dealing with transition.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081603/5697c0101a28abf838ccb2d1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Human Face of Development
Vladimir Gligorov
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Contents
• River and peoples• Mobility• Dealing with institutions• Diverging development• Dealing with transition and crisis• Labour demand and skills• Conclusion
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River and Peoples
• River is like an infrastructure investment• It is a source of externalities and
agglomeration• Favours urbanisation and diversity• Supports industry and services, especially
trade and finance
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Mobility and labour market
• Danube provides for increased advantages to mobility of goods, capital, services, ideas and people
• Migration provides for larger labour market and better allocation of capabilities
• Also, traditionally, and escape route
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Dealing with Institutions
• Externalities and human agglomeration are supportive of development with the right institutions
• However, distributional problems can be hard to solve
• Both in the case of the common goods and common bads
• Traditionally, institutions mismanaged
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Diverging Development
• The difference in development (human capital, structure of production, income levels) is quite high and persistent
• In a sense, development does not seem to travel downstream
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Dealing with Transition and Crisis
• Transition has not brought tremendous successes in convergence
• It has been hard on employment• It has not supported industrialisation in a
number of Danube countries• It has favoured capital cities over the rest of
the countries• Crisis has reversed some of the gains and
added to the institutional problems
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Transition and Crisis• Convergence limited (not sustained) and often
divergence• Uneven industrial development• Significant imbalances – especially in external
balances in most countries• Labour market underperformance: low
employment levels and high unemployment levels
• Strong effects of the crisis• Capital flow reversal
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De- and re-industrialization processes continue to be decisive(Industrial production – level relative to 1989: 1995, 2000, 2008)
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ES
GR
IE
IT PT
KZ
RU
TR
UAEE
LT
LV
BA
BG
HR
ME
MK
RO
RS CZ
HU
PL
SI
SK
-20
-10
010
20
Cu
mula
ted
re
al G
DP
gro
wth
200
8-2
01
1
-40 -20 0 20Cumulated gross industrial production growth 2008-2011
Development of GDP and gross industrial production, 2008-2011
Industrial production contracting more strongly than GDP
Source: wiiw Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics, own calculations.
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Source: Eurostat.
Youth unemployment (15-24) and long-term unemployment (more than 12 months) have increased strongly
0
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EU-27 BG CZ EE LV LT HU PL RO SI SK HR
3Q 2008 3Q 2011
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External imbalances: composition of the current account of the balance of payments, 2000-2010, in % of GDP
Source: wiiw Database incorporating national and Eurostat statistics.
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Source: BIS.
Foreign banks reduce their balance sheets in Southeast Europe, Russia and Ukraine
Consolidated foreign claims on banks, USD million
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Labour Demand and Skills
• In a number of countries skill levels are higher than the GDP per capita warrants
• In addition to this structural problem, the overall demand for employment is low
• The policy of austerity is contributing negatively to the labour market
• Employment falling fast in most countries• And long-term unemployment is increasing,
which suggests significant loss in human capital
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Conclusion
• There are significant convergence potentials• Policy framework inadequate• High human cost