Human Capital and the Costs of Non-Research
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Human Capital and the Costs of Non-Research
Alfonso Gambardella
Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies
Pisa, Italy
Research policy - Incentives and Institutions
Ministry of Finance & Economics
Rome November 28, 2002
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Topics
• Five stylised facts about research and innovation in the 1990s
• Some intriguing indicators about Europe and Italy
• Conclusions
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Fact 1: Increase in Patent Applications
• US applications from 80k per year in the 1980s to 140-150k in the 1990s
• EPO: 143k applications in 2000. Up 16% from previous year. Annual filings more than doubled compared to 10 yrs ago.
• There is increase in the propensity to patent (e.g semiconductors). Yet, notable increase in innovations as well.
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Fact 2: Markets for Technology
• Notable increase in technology transactions in the 1990s (patents, technologies, ideas)
• Implication: Innovators develop their technologies even if they don’t have mfr or mkt assets
• The market is there:
– EPO estimated that in Europe 20 billion $ are spent every year to develop innovations already developed elsewhere
– Studies show that many companies (or patent holders) are willing to license their patents
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Fact 3: Human capital externalities
“Using detailed data on California biotechnology, we find that … for an average firm, five articles co-authored by academic stars and the firm’s scientists imply about 5 more products in development, … and 860 more employees.” (Zucker, Darby, Armstrong, 1998)
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Fact 4: New industry & business models
• Information technology (and Silicon Valley) have shown how to create development via high-skill intensive business, new models of firms and of economic relationships, markets for technology, etc..
• This has potentials for development as well (e.g. Bangalore, Ireland, Israel)
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Fact 5: Openness
• Openness of science has been a major example of the impact of openness of performance in research and related activities (e.g. Paul David’s work)
• A recent study shows that more “open” European regions have higher labour productivity, other things being equal.
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To sum up …
• “People” are increasingly central to the overall research and innovation business
• People are crucial to … – invent– manage– develop markets, institutions, and firms– create domestic and int’l networks– take strategic decisions and entrepreneurial actions
(whether in research or business)– etc..
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Some intriguing indicators(just released EU Key S&T figures 2002)
• Show that European countries are enhancing the role of “people” (HK)
• Italy is lagging behind. In particular: – Italy has a good innovation and research
productivity;– But the key inputs (number of researchers, scale
of HK) is dramatically modest– Needs to increase the size of the HK base
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
US
A
Uni
ted
Kin
gdo
m
Aus
tria
Ne
the
rland
s
Sw
ede
n
De
nma
rk
Be
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m
Ire
land
Ita
ly
Ge
rma
ny
Fra
nce
Spa
in
Fin
land
Gre
ece
Japa
n
Po
rtug
al
Source: My calculations on EU Key S&T Figures 2002
Scientific Publications per 1000 Researchers in Govt or Academia
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US
A
Ne
the
rland
s
Uni
ted
Kin
gd
om
Sw
ed
en
De
nma
rk
Irela
nd
Be
lgiu
m
Aus
tria
Ge
rma
ny
Italy
Fra
nce
Fin
land
Sp
ain
Jap
an
Gre
ece
Po
rtug
al
Source: My calculations on EU Key S&T Figures 2002
Highly Cited Publications per 1000 Researchers in Govt or Academia
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ne
the
rland
s
Ge
rman
y
Ital
y
Fin
land
Sw
ed
en
De
nmar
k
Fra
nce
Aus
tria
Be
lgiu
m
Uni
ted
Kin
gd
om
Sp
ain
Ire
land
US
A
Jap
an
Gre
ece
Po
rtug
al
Source: My calculations on EU Key S&T Figures 2002
EPO Patents 2000 per 1000 Researchers in Business Firms
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Fin
land
Jap
an
Sw
ed
en
US
A
Be
lgiu
m
De
nmar
k
Ge
rman
y
Fra
nce
Uni
ted
Kin
gd
om
EU
-15
Ne
the
rland
s
Ire
land
Aus
tria
Sp
ain
Po
rtug
al
Gre
ece
Ital
y
Source: EU Key S&T Figures 2002
Researchers (FTE) per 1000 labour force: Latest available year
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-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Gre
ece
Fin
land
Ire
land
Sp
ain
Po
rtug
al
Be
lgiu
m
US
A
Ne
the
rland
s
Sw
ed
en
De
nmar
k
EU
-15
Uni
ted
Kin
gd
om
Jap
an
Ge
rman
y
Fra
nce
Ital
y
Source: EU Key S&T Figures 2002
Researchers (FTE) per 1000 labour force: Annual growth from 1995 to the latest available year
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Germany France Italy Netherlands United Kingdom
EPO Patents 2000 and Researchers in Business Firms: D, F, I, NL, UK
Patents Researchers in Firms
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Sw
ed
en
Fin
land
Ge
rman
y
Fra
nce
Uni
ted
Kin
gd
om
Be
lgiu
m
Aus
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EU
-15
Ire
land
De
nmar
k
US
A
Sp
ain
Ne
the
rland
s
Po
rtug
al
Jap
an
Gre
ece
Ital
y
Source: EU Key S&T Figures 2002
New S&T PhDs per 1000 population aged 25-34, latest available year
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
US
A
Fin
land
Sw
ed
en
De
nmar
k
Aus
tria
Ire
land
Gre
ece
Ne
the
rland
s
Fra
nce
Sp
ain
Uni
ted
Kin
gd
om
EU
-15
Ge
rman
y
Po
rtug
al
Jap
an
Be
lgiu
m
Ital
y
Source: EU Key S&T Figures 2002
Private & public expenditures on tertiary education, % of GDP in 1998
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To sum up ...
• European countries with low share of HK are trying to catch up
• Italy is an exception: – Low supply of HK, in spite of the fact that
because of high productivity this is a valuable investment to make!
– The logic is straightforward: Few PhDs, along with modest expenditures on tertiary edu few researchers/HK small research output (patents or publications)
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Conclusions
What are the costs of a low supply of HK?
“Using detailed data on California biotechnology, we find that … for an average firm, five articles co-authored by academic stars and the firm’s scientists imply about 5 more products in development, … and 860 more employees.” (Zucker, Darby, Armstrong, 1998)
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What then? Increase the supply of PhDs!
• Develop high quality Doctoral Programmes to:– Implement a sound basis of research and HK– Provide the teachers for the other levels of tertiary
education
• They could follow either a one-to-one, apprentship-like “industrial PhD” approach (e.g. in engineering); or an anglosaxon-like PhD (with courses, etc.)
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Supply of PhDs!
Most importantly, PhD programmes should be managed by reputed researchers who have experience with leading int’l PhD programmes (and research), possibly within independent or semi-independent institutions Create the “Graduate Schools”
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“What are the research university?….
…. Those with a graduate programme.”