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Historical Fatal Accident RateU.S. Commercial Operations

Historical Fatal Accident RateU.S. Commercial Operations

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.019

91

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Fa

talit

y A

ccid

en

ts (

or

Fu

ll L

oss

Acc

ide

nt

Eq

uiv

ale

nts

)

pe

r 1

0 M

illio

n D

ep

art

ure

s

5 year moving average of fatal accidents per 10 million departures

82% Reduction in Actual Fatal Accident Rate

1996-2007

Initial Era of CAST

Vision - Mission - GoalsVision - Mission - GoalsVision - Mission - GoalsVision - Mission - GoalsVision Key aviation stakeholders acting cooperatively to lead the

world-wide aviation community to the highest levels of global commercial aviation safety by focusing on the right things.

Mission Enable a continuous improvement framework built on the

proactive identification of current and future risks, developing mitigations as needed and monitoring the effectiveness of implemented actions.

Future Goals Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatality risk by at least

50% from 2010 to 2025 and Continue to work with our international partners to reduce

fatality risk world-wide commercial aviation.

** Observers

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingGE*RAAFSF

AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingGE*RAAFSF

Government, industry and labor collaborate to Government, industry and labor collaborate to develop a voluntary, prioritized safety agendadevelop a voluntary, prioritized safety agendaGovernment, industry and labor collaborate to Government, industry and labor collaborate to develop a voluntary, prioritized safety agendadevelop a voluntary, prioritized safety agenda

* Representing P&W and RR

Industry

Commercial Aviation Safety Team

(CAST)

Government

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification

• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic

Operations• Research

NASAEASA (ECAST)TCC

DODFAA

• Aircraft Certification

• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic

Operations• Research

NASAEASA (ECAST)TCC

IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**ACI-NA**

IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**ACI-NA**

NATCA** NTSB**ICAO**

Robust CAST MethodologyRobust CAST Methodology

• Detailed event sequence - problem identification from worldwide accidents and incidents

• Broad-based teams (45-50 specialists /team)

• Over 450 problem statements (contributing factors)

• Over 900 interventions proposed

• Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy

Joint Safety Analysis Team (JSAT)

CAST Safety Strategy & ProcessCAST Safety Strategy & Process

Influence WorldwideSafety Enhancements

DataAnalysis

• Rigorous Methodology • Set Safety Priorities• Cost/Benefit Analysis

Achieve consensus onsolution feasibility and

priority

Integrate into existing work and distribute

Implement U.S.Safety Enhancements

Agree onproblems and interventions

Joint Safety Implementation Team (JSIT)

Joint Implementation Measurement

Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

“Solution Development”“Problem Statement” “Execution”

5.5-24

JSAT Process – Subject Matter JSAT Process – Subject Matter ExpertiseExpertise

IdentifyProblems

IdentifyInterventionStrategies

AssignStandardProblem

Statements

EvaluateIntervention

Effectiveness

PrioritizeInterventions

Technical Review &

ReportResults

GlobalReview of

Characteristics/Indicators

EvaluateProblem Importance

ReviewData

Record Characteristics/

Indicators

DevelopEvent

Sequence

WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHY?

• ALPA/APAALPA/APA

• FAA AIR*FAA AIR*

• FAA AFS*FAA AFS*

• FAA ATO*FAA ATO*

• FAA AVP*FAA AVP*

• AirbusAirbus

• EASAEASA

• ATAATA

• AIAAIA

• BoeingBoeing

• Transport Transport CanadaCanada

*Certification, Flight Standards, Air Traffic, Accident Investigation/Prevention

Joint Safety Implementation Joint Safety Implementation Team (JSIT)Team (JSIT)

Joint Safety Implementation Joint Safety Implementation Team (JSIT)Team (JSIT)

• JSIT develops a safety enhancement based on:JSIT develops a safety enhancement based on:

– Technical feasibility of the interventionTechnical feasibility of the intervention

– Resources availableResources available

• Financial impactFinancial impact

• Capability for operational deploymentCapability for operational deployment

• Schedule of phased implementationSchedule of phased implementation

– Regulatory compatibility of the interventionRegulatory compatibility of the intervention

– Sociological aspectsSociological aspects

• JSIT prepares a Detailed Implementation Plan JSIT prepares a Detailed Implementation Plan (“DIP”)(“DIP”)

Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Measurement Data Analysis

Team (JIMDAT)Team (JIMDAT)

Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Measurement Data Analysis

Team (JIMDAT)Team (JIMDAT)

Measuring the effectiveness Measuring the effectiveness

of Mitigationsof Mitigations

JIMDAT Develops a JIMDAT Develops a Prioritization MethodologyPrioritization Methodology

JIMDAT Develops a JIMDAT Develops a Prioritization MethodologyPrioritization Methodology

• Identifies the most effective solutions Identifies the most effective solutions derived from all accident categoriesderived from all accident categories

• Considers effectiveness vs. resourcesConsiders effectiveness vs. resources

• Tests solutions against fatal and hull loss Tests solutions against fatal and hull loss accidents accidents

• Creates draft master strategic safety planCreates draft master strategic safety plan

• Identifies areas for future study/mitigationIdentifies areas for future study/mitigation

Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction

47 Completed SEs & Planned SEs

(2007 Implementation Level)

Completed SEs & Planned SEs


All JSIT Proposed SEs


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Re

so

urc

e C

os

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

2007 2020

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Ris

k E

lim

ina

ted

by

Sa

fety

En

ha

nc

em

en

ts

47 CompletedSafety

Enhancements

$350M$350M $470M$470M $740M$740M

$5B$5B

74% Risk Reduction

80% Risk Reduction

48% Risk Reduction

2007 2020

68% Risk Reduction

Do

llars

/Flig

ht

Cyc

le

Part 121 Aviation Industry Costs Due to Fatal Hull Loss Accidents

$100

$80

$60

$40

$20

0

Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle

74% Risk reduction

Savings ~ $74/Flight Cycle

or

~ $814 Million Dollars/Year

$26.18 per flight cycle

Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the

CAST plan @ 2020 levels

2020

Cost Savings (2010 Dollars)Cost Savings (2010 Dollars)Cost Savings (2010 Dollars)Cost Savings (2010 Dollars)

2007

Current CAST Safety PlanCurrent CAST Safety PlanCurrent CAST Safety PlanCurrent CAST Safety Plan• Projected 74% fatality risk reduction by 2020Projected 74% fatality risk reduction by 2020– Industry and Government implementing planIndustry and Government implementing plan

• 61 Completed Safety Enhancements addressing:61 Completed Safety Enhancements addressing:– Safety CultureSafety Culture

– Maintenance Procedures Maintenance Procedures

– Flight Crew TrainingFlight Crew Training

– Air Traffic Controller TrainingAir Traffic Controller Training

– Uncontained Engine FailuresUncontained Engine Failures

– Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)

– Standard Operating ProceduresStandard Operating Procedures

– Precision ApproachesPrecision Approaches

– Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) SystemsMinimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems

– Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (continued)CAST Safety Plan (continued)CAST Safety Plan (continued)CAST Safety Plan (continued)

22 Committed Safety Enhancements22 Committed Safety Enhancements• Policies and ProceduresPolicies and Procedures

• Aircraft Design Aircraft Design

• Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)

• Runway Incursion PreventionRunway Incursion Prevention

• Precision Approaches (additional projects)Precision Approaches (additional projects)

• Icing (additional turboprop projects) Icing (additional turboprop projects)

• MidairMidair

• MaintenanceMaintenance

• Runway SafetyRunway Safety

• Safety culture, policies and proceduresSafety culture, policies and procedures

Effectiveness

that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated

Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented

( ),Accident Risk Reduction =

Calculating Potential Benefit Calculating Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Interventionof a Safety Enhancing Intervention

Calculating Potential Benefit Calculating Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Interventionof a Safety Enhancing Intervention

Was it Effective?

Did we do what we said we would do?

CAST Safety Plan DevelopmentCAST Safety Plan DevelopmentCAST Safety Plan DevelopmentCAST Safety Plan Development

AccidentJSATS

Case studies

AccidentJSITS

Case studies

SafetyEnhancements

IncidentAnalysisProcess

JIMDATReview

EmergingRisk

ChangingRisk

DevelopEnhancements

& Metrics

AviationSystem

Changes

PresentIn MasterFactors

Yes

No

DemographicChanges

IdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

DevelopContributing

Factors(new or

emerging

IdentifyHazards

IdentifyFactors

MasterContributing

Factors

FAST Hazards

CASTPlan

RecommendedPlan

Revision

PerformanceTo PlanReview

Non-PerformanceInformation

Metrics

Aviation Safety Information Analysis & Sharing (ASIAS)Aviation Safety Information Analysis & Sharing (ASIAS)

• Share voluntarily collected safety dataShare voluntarily collected safety data

• Develop tools to make data analysis more efficient Develop tools to make data analysis more efficient

• Identify and access key data sourcesIdentify and access key data sources

• Discover potential aviation safety risks using key Discover potential aviation safety risks using key data sourcesdata sources

• Transition to Decision Making Based on Analysis of Transition to Decision Making Based on Analysis of Incident and System Safety Performance DataIncident and System Safety Performance Data

• Develop automated information integration Develop automated information integration capabilities centered on aviation safety risk topicscapabilities centered on aviation safety risk topics

• Transfer technologies and key data sources into Transfer technologies and key data sources into National ArchivesNational Archives

ASIAS Enables Various Types of ASIAS Enables Various Types of Proactive Safety AnalysesProactive Safety Analyses

Known Risk Monitoring

Vulnerability Discovery

Benchmarking Opportunity for participating Air Carriers

CAST Safety Enhancement Assessments

Directed Studies

Data Sources Supporting ASIAS Data Sources Supporting ASIAS StudiesStudies

Safety Data • Aviation Safety Reporting System

• Runway Incursion• Surface Incident• Operational Error /

Operational Deviation• Pilot Deviation• Vehicle or Pedestrian

Deviation• National

Transportation Safety Board

• FAA Accident/Incident Data System

• FAA Service Difficulty Reports

Proprietary Data

• Traffic Management Reroutes and Delays

• Airport Configuration and Operations

• Sector and Route Structure

• Procedures• Surveillance Data for

En Route, Terminal and Airport

ATC Information

Other Information

• ASAP• FOQA• ATSAP• Manufacturers data• Avionics data

• Bureau of Transportation Statistics

• Weather / Winds

ASIAS PARTICIPANTSASIAS PARTICIPANTS

As of 10 November 2011As of 10 November 2011

40 Airlines

32 have a FOQA program

40 have an ASAP program

JetBlue AirwaysMesa AirlinesMesaba AirlinesMiami Air InternationalNorth American AirlinesPiedmont AirlinesPinnacle AirlinesPSA AirlinesRepublic AirlinesShuttle AmericaSkyWest AirlinesSouthwest Airlines Spirit AirlinesSun Country Airlines Trans States Airlines United AirlinesUnited Parcel ServiceUS AirwaysUSA 3000 AirlinesWorld Airways

Air Wisconsin AirlinesAirTran Airlines Alaska Airlines American AirlinesAmerican Eagle AirlinesAtlantic Southeast Airlines Chautauqua AirlinesCitationAirColgan AirComairCommutAir Compass Airlines Continental AirlinesDelta Air LinesEmpire AirlinesExpressJetFrontier AirlinesGoJet AirlinesGulfstream Int’l AirlinesHawaiian Airlines

ASIAS is Governed by Formal ASIAS is Governed by Formal PrinciplesPrinciples

Non-punitive reportingData used solely for

advancement of safety

Airline data is de-identifiedAnalyses approved by an ASIAS Executive Board

ASIAS Studies In Progress or ASIAS Studies In Progress or CompletedCompleted

Airline Benchmarks

Terrain Awareness Warning System Alerts

Unstabilized Approaches

TCAS Resolution Advisories

Directed Studies

Runway Safety

Terrain Awareness Warning System Study

TCAS Resolution Advisories

CAST Known Risk and

Safety Enhancement Effectiveness

Monitoring

Approach and Landing Accident Risks

Risk of Landing Runway Overrun

Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)

Aviation CommunityEmerging Safety

Concerns

ASIAS

Analysis and Monitoring + Vulnerability

Discovery

CAST

Safety Enhancement

Implementation

Success relies on collaboration Success relies on collaboration between voluntary safety programs.between voluntary safety programs.

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