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Http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 1 Climate Change: Designing an Effective Response David G. Victor.
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Transcript of Http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 1 Climate Change: Designing an Effective Response David G. Victor.
1
http://pesd.stanford.edu/
Climate Change: Climate Change: Designing an Effective Designing an Effective
ResponseResponse
David G. Victor
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 2
OutlineOutline
• Five Myths Meet their Maker
• Toward an effective Climate Strategy
• Roles for America
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 3
Five MythsFive Myths
1. Climate Change isn’t a problem
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 4
Five MythsFive Myths
1. Climate Change isn’t a problem
2. Fossil Fuels will Run Out Shortly
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 5
Tapping the World’s “Infinite” Gas ResourcesTapping the World’s “Infinite” Gas Resources
White: where the lights are on, satellite imageryBlue Red : Gas resources, with increasing size (USGS)
Source: Baker Institute (Rice) and PESD (Stanford) Joint Study on the Geopolitics of Gas (CUP, forthcoming
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 6
Five MythsFive Myths
1. Climate Change isn’t a problem
2. Fossil Fuels will Run Out Shortly
3. The “Engineer’s Myth”• Technological Solutions, once identified, can spring forth and
multiply
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 7
Rapid Evolution: DRAMsRapid Evolution: DRAMs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sh
are
of
DR
AM
gen
erat
ion
in t
ota
l mar
ket
(%
)
4K
16K
64K
256K
1M
4M
16M
64M
256M
128M
Source: Ausubel and N. Victor
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 8
Learning CurvesLearning Curves
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 9
When does Learning Stop?When does Learning Stop?The experience with gas turbinesThe experience with gas turbines
Source: Colpier and Cornland. 2002. “The Economics of the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine – An Experience Curve Analysis.” Energy Policy 30: 309-316.
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 10
Slow Evolution: Primary Energy SystemsSlow Evolution: Primary Energy Systems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Wood
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro elec.
Source: Nakicenovic and Grubler; IIASA
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 11
Five MythsFive Myths
1. Climate Change isn’t a problem
2. Fossil Fuels will Run Out Shortly
3. The “Engineer’s Myth”• Technological Solutions, once identified, can spring forth and
multiply
4. The “Planning Myth”• Governments and firms optimize with full information and leverage
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 12
Five MythsFive Myths
1. Climate Change isn’t a problem
2. Fossil Fuels will Run Out Shortly
3. The “Engineer’s Myth”• Technological Solutions, once identified, can spring forth and
multiply
4. The “Planning Myth”• Governments and firms optimize with full information and leverage
5. The “Diplomats’ Myth”• Policy Planning can be extended to the global level
• All countries should be involved in the most effective solutions
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 13
Antarctic Whaling: Perfect complianceAntarctic Whaling: Perfect compliance
Antarctic Whaling:catch by species and compliance with IWC quotas
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
wh
ale
s
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Blu
e W
ha
le U
nit
s
(to
tal c
atc
h a
nd
qu
ota
)
Blue Fin Humpback Sei-Bryde's Minke Sperm Total Catch IWC Quota
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 14
Trends in Fossil Carbon EmissionsTrends in Fossil Carbon Emissions(Trajectories and Kyoto Commitments)(Trajectories and Kyoto Commitments)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
MtC
O2
BPAmoco_HHV
IIASA/WEC
Oak Ridge
EIA
IEA_LHV
Official FCCC baseyear
USA
EU15
Japan
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 15
Trends in Fossil Carbon EmissionsTrends in Fossil Carbon Emissions(Trajectories and Kyoto Commitments)(Trajectories and Kyoto Commitments)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
MtC
O2
BPAmoco_HHV
IIASA/WEC
Oak Ridge
EIA
IEA_LHV
Official FCCC baseyear
USA
EU15
Japan
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 16
Toward and Effective Climate StrategyToward and Effective Climate Strategy
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 17
Three Elements of An Effective Climate Three Elements of An Effective Climate StrategyStrategy
1. Build Carbon Markets from the “Bottom Up”
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 18
A Madisonian Perspective:A Madisonian Perspective:Emerging Carbon CurrenciesEmerging Carbon Currencies
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oct-00 Apr-01 Nov-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Mar-06
$/M
etr
ic T
on
ne C
O2
Volume (MTCO2)
1.5 million
500,000
125,000
50,000
EU
PCF CCX
CDM
NSW
UK
Sources: PointCarbon, International Emissions Trading AssociationReprinted from Victor, House & Joy (2005)
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 19
Three Elements of An Effective Climate Three Elements of An Effective Climate StrategyStrategy
1. Build Carbon Markets from the “Bottom Up”
2. Tailor and discriminate• Numbers
• Interests
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 20
Allocation of World Emissions: Allocation of World Emissions: Only a Few Countries Really MatterOnly a Few Countries Really Matter
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 21
Engaging Developing Countries:Engaging Developing Countries:The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Source: PointCarbon
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
In Development Project Design Document Commented Registered Credits Issued
Nu
mb
er o
f P
roje
cts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MtC
O2 R
edu
ctio
ns
Number of Projects (March 8) Number of Projects (July 12) MtCO2e Reductions (March 8) MtCO2e Reductions (July 12)
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 22
Limitations of the CDM ModelLimitations of the CDM Model
• Tropical “hot air”: currency devaluation– CH4: land fill and flaring– HFC23: industrial processes gases
• High transaction costs– Small Scale Projects– No methodologies for large-scale energy efficiency and fuel switching
• Baseline identification– Baselines feasible only for marginal activities
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 23
• Example: CO2 Savings from Natural Gas
• IEA forecast for China in 2020: – 560GW (coal)
– 67GW (gas)
• What happens if you switch 80GW from coal to natural gas combined cycle?
– Saves 105 Million Tonnes CO2 per year beginning in 2020
Alternative Strategies: Alternative Strategies: Climate-Friendly Development ProgramsClimate-Friendly Development Programs
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 24
COCO22 Savings in Perspective Savings in Perspective
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Year 2000 UKEmissions
Year 2000 Emissionsfrom California Cars
Reductions under"High Gas" Scenario
Reductions from 100Large CDM Projects
Mil
lio
n T
on
nes
CO
2 (A
nn
ual
)
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 25
Three Elements of An Effective Climate Three Elements of An Effective Climate StrategyStrategy
1. Build Carbon Markets from the “Bottom Up”
2. Tailor and discriminate• Numbers
• Interests
3. Emphasize Technology as well as Emissions
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 26
Full Range of Published ScenariosFull Range of Published Scenarios
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 27
Percent of World Total
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Arab States
Africa
SE Asia
C & E Europe
Oceania
Latin America
India & C. Asia
CIS
China
Japan and NICs
Western Europe
North America
Gross Expenditure on R&D(1994)Scientific Output (SCIPublications, 1995)Carbon Dioxide Emissions(1998)
Top Innovators and Emitters by World Top Innovators and Emitters by World RegionRegion
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 28
Elements of a Technology StrategyElements of a Technology Strategy
• Diverse Country-Based Initiatives
– Loose international coordination
• Basic and Applied technology
– Common pitfall: premature selection of winners
• Price and technology progress are not either/or
– Fiction: technology only strategies
– Fiction: price only strategies
• Why price matters
– Signal of credibility
– Aligns markets to invest and adopt lower carbon technologies
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 29
America’s RoleAmerica’s Role
• Support small forums as complements to Kyoto
• Lead the technology strategy
• Credible Policies at home
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 30
“Carbon Intensity” of the U.S. Economy (1800-1998)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
CO
2/G
DP
US
France
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
Germany
Intensity: grams C per 1990 USD(mer)
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development - http://pesd.stanford.edu/ 31
U.S. Climate Change Policy: U.S. Climate Change Policy: State-driven processState-driven process
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change