IMAGE HERE INTO GREY AREA.Consumer

Confidence

Tracker

March 2010

Prepared by Luke Reaper

J.1814

2J.1814

Introduction

This report presents the findings of the latest phase of the Behaviour & Attitudes’

Consumer Confidence Tracker.

Survey results for each phase are based on a sample of 962 adults aged 16+, quota

controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the

profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland.

All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face Barometer

by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines.

Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between 1st and 10th March 2010 (i.e.

pre ‘Bail Out Tuesday’ (NAMA and Bank recapitalisation announcements on 30th March

2010)).

At the end of this report we have also included some of the latest CSO data on GNP,

retail sales, unemployment and inflation.

The figures contained within the B&A Consumer Confidence Barometer have an

estimated margin of error 3.2%.

3J.1814

Summary

In the last Behaviour & Attitudes Consumer Confidence Barometer in November 2009,

we saw indications that consumer pessimism was easing. The ‘settling down’ noted in

the last Barometer has thankfully continued in this latest wave.

For the fourth wave in a row, consumers are more positive about the economy for the

year ahead. Thus there is a consistent easing of negativity.

People are still displaying concerns for their own personal financial position in the

year ahead, which is not surprising given the impact of the government levy and salary

cuts over the last year. However, personal finance perceptions have stablised, and

have not disimproved since the last wave in November 2009, pre-budget.

Job security fears still exist, with 17% very concerned that someone in their household

may lose their job in the next 6 months. As long as people still read or hear about job

losses we believe that consumer spending will remain stagnant. The latest QNHS

figure of 13.1% unemployment (while released post fieldwork) indicates that consumer

fears are unfortunately very real.

4J.1814

Summary

The table below summarises the net scores for each element of the March survey

compared to previous waves.

Pre 2008

Historic Low2009 2010

Date Net Score Net Scores Net Scores

UNWTD. SAMPLE Date Score Mar May Sept Nov March

% % % % % % %

Economy - looking back a year Nov '02 -62 -88 -93 -91 -86 -81

Economy - looking forward one

yearNov '02 -63 -74 -76 -65 -58 -54

Personal finance - looking back

a yearNov '02 -40 -57 -62 -67 -63 -65

Personal income - looking

forward a yearNov '02 -20 -54 -63 -63 -55 -54

Personal assets - looking

forward one year Jan'02 -2 -55 -53 -55 -47 -49

Purchasing intentions - the year

aheadNov '02 -24 -61 -55 -60 -53 -51

Savings - the year ahead Nov '02 -35 -56 -56 -60 -51 -53

Net score denote “better” minus “worse” and a reduction

(-58 to -54) suggests a reduction of pessimism.

5J.1814

Economy – Looking Back

Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year?

Better off

Same

Worse off

COUNTRY

IS NOW …

GAP -40 -59 -13 +3 +8 -6 -64 -89 -88 -93 -91 -86 -81

LONG TERM 2009

2002 20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 Mar May Sept Nov

2010

Mar2009

6J.1814

Economy – Looking Forward

Better off

Same

Worse off

GAP -36 -50 -17 -2 = -15 -59 -68 -74 -76 -65 -58 -54

Country

will be …

Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off,

worse off or about the same as this year?

LONG TERM 2009

2002 20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 Mar May Sept Nov

2010

Mar2009

7J.1814

Balance Of Opinion

Economy

Long Term Short Term

Balance +/-

0

-42

-58-54

-81-86

-91-93

-79-77

-88

-73-69

-40

-59

-13

38

-6

-64

-41

-55-65

-76

-56

-66 -67 -65-69

-74

-59

-15

-50

-36 -17

-2

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan Mar July Sept Oct Dec Mar May Sept Nov Mar

Looking Back

Looking Forward

YEARLY AVERAGES 20092008 2010

8J.1814

Personal Finances – Looking Back

Q.3 Do you feel better off financially, worse off financially or about the same

compared to last year?

Better off

Same

Worse off

Now feel …

GAP -23 -34 -11 +1 +4 +4 -35 -63 -57 -62 -67 -63 -65

LONG TERM 2009

2002 20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 Mar May Sept Nov

2010

Mar2009

9J.1814

Personal Finances – Looking Forward

Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes,

to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

Higher

The same

Lower

Expect it to

be …

GAP -2 -8 +8 +16 +18 +15 -21 -59 -54 -63 -63 -55 -54

24% 27%

17% 13% 12% 13%

34%

64%60%

67% 67%62%

58%

54% 54%

58%58%

58%59%

52%

30%34%

29% 29%31% 38%

22% 22%25% 25%

30% 28%

13%5% 6% 4% 4% 7% 4%

LONG TERM 2009

2002 20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 Mar May Sept Nov

2010

Mar2009

10J.1814

Balance Of Opinion - Personal Finances

Balance +/-

-65-63-67

-62-50

-43

-57

-48

-32-23

-34

-11

14 4

-35

-12-9

-54-55

-61

-63

3

18

-1

-20-26

-38-44

-54

-21

15

-8

-2

8

16

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan Mar July Sept Oct Dec Mar May Sept Nov Mar

Looking Back

Looking Forward

Long Term Short Term

YEARLY AVERAGES 20092008 2010

11J.1814

Personal Assets– Looking Forward

Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings)

In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year? PROBE: A lot or a little

More

No change

Less

Expect them to

be …

Difference +6 +9 +21 +31 +33 +20 -20 -53 -55 -53 -55 -47 -49

13% 13%7% 5% 5% 8%

35%

55% 57% 55% 57%50% 52%

68% 65%

65%

59% 57%

64%

55%

42% 41% 43% 41%47% 45%

19% 22%28%

36% 38%

28%

10%2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%

LONG TERM 2009

2002 20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 Mar May Sept Nov

2010

Mar2009

12J.1814

Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking Forward

Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same

amount of goods and services as in the past year?

More

The same

Less

Expect to

purchase …

Difference -10 -12 = +4 +7 +5 -29 -63 -61 -55 -60 -53 -51

LONG TERM 2009

2002 20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 Mar May Sept Nov

2010

Mar2009

13J.1814

Savings – Looking Forward

Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead

compared with the last twelve months?

More

The same

Less

Expect to

save …

Difference -23 -28 -8 -5 -1 -5 -34 -56 -56 -56 -60 -51 -53

36% 39%

25% 23%19%

23%

44%

62% 62% 62%66%

57% 60%

51%50%

58% 59%63%

59%

46%

32% 31% 32%28%

37% 33%

13% 11%17% 18% 18% 18%

10%6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%

LONG TERM 2009

2002 20052003 2004 2006 2007 2008 Mar May Sept Nov

2010

Mar2009

14J.1814

Balance Of OpinionExpectations in regard to Assets, purchases, and savings

Balance +/-

-55

-47 -49

-51

-34

-60-53

-20

-4

-25

20

3331

21

96

-19-27

-55

-38-39

-53

-53

4

-12-10

-12

5

-29

-61

-51-43-34

-28

-13

7

-5

-55

-60

-51

-34-35

-23-28

-8

-5-1

-5-13

-4

-50 -52 -56-56

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan Mar July Sept Oct Dec Mar May Sept Nov Mar

Assets

Purchase

Savings

Long Term Short Term

YEARLY AVERAGES 20092008 2010

15J.1814

Job Security Fears

3% 3% 5% 3% 7%6%

10% 10% 12%12%

20%21%

24% 27% 23%13%

16%15%

16% 17%

27%

29% 22%

25% 24%

31%

20%25%

17% 17%Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not very concerned

Not at all concerned

Someone in H’H already lost their job

Don’t know

Concern that someone in household

may lose their job in the next 6 months

Total March 2009

Q.9 Are you very, somewhat, not very or not at all concerned that you or someone

in your household may lose their job in the next six months?

Total May 2009

Equates to over 600k

people who are still very

concerned

A nation divided, with similar proportions concerned as are unconcerned regarding jobs

Total Sept 2009

Total Nov 2009

Total Mar 2010

16J.1814

Are Consumers Coping?Base: All adults 16+ - 967

Especially affected are; those in the

25-64 age bracket and among blue

collar workers.

About 490k people strongly agree their

household is having difficulties (a

further 1.5m agree)

Strongly agree

Agree

Disagree

Strongly disagree

Don’t know

Q.10 To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with

each of the following statements?

Compared to a year ago, my household having more difficulty making ends meet

Total March 2009

Total May 2009

Total Sept 2009

Total Nov 2009

Total Mar 2010

Compared to a year ago, my household having

more difficulty making ends meet

17J.1814

Households Struggling to Make Ends Meet: 2010Base: All adults 16+ 967

Strongly agree

Agree

Disagree

Strongly disagree

Don’t know

Q.10 To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree?

‘My household is struggling to make ends meet’

Total 16-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ ABC1 C2DE F

AGE CLASS

4%

14%

4% 2% 2% 1% 4% 4%7%

8%

8%

5% 7% 9%16% 11%

6%

7%

30%

33%

26% 28% 24%

45%

39%

24%

25%

44%

34%

50% 46%54%

27%35%

50%47%

14% 11%15% 17%

12% 11% 10%17% 15%

18J.1814

Is there some silver lining

to the recession?

19J.1814

The Spirit of the Fighting Irish Lives OnBase: All Adults aged 16+ 962

Over 3 in 4 believe …

“The recession is here, so

people just need to get on with

living in this new world”

This sentiment echoes the

findings of the Behaviour &

Attitudes Oct ’09 Irish Times

Ireland Today Poll.

20J.1814

Shopping BehaviourBase: All Adults aged 16+ 962

Not surprisingly over 88% of people claim to be more careful about their money and what they spend it on.

But 70% believe there are a lot of good deals around on different products and services which they avail of.

Also 64% feel more in control of their spending nowadays compared to last year.

However, of note is that 63% still treat

themselves nowadays despite the

recession.

21J.1814

Indeed many agree (51%

vs 37% disagree) that the

recession may be good for

people in the long run.

64% spending more quality

time at home nowadays.

Other „benefits‟ of the recessionBase: All Adults aged 16+ 962

One third claim they are going to

enjoy holidaying in Ireland this

coming year.

54% cooking

more at home

in 2010

76% view it as a

good time to

retrain or

educate oneself.

22J.1814

SavingsBase: All Adults aged 16+ 962

The recession is affecting a broad

spectrum of Irish people. Hence it is

not surprising that only 1 in 5 feel

they are saving more nowadays

compared to a year ago.

23J.1814

There is no Quick FixBase: All Adults aged 16+ 962

Only 7% feel the recession will

be over by the end of 2010.

24J.1814

CSO DATA(latest estimates 2010)

25J.1814

Unemployment RatesSeasonally adjusted

% of labour force

2008

The unemployment rate does not take into account reduced working hours up to 3 days a

week, etc as does the Live Register

2008Average for ‟08 was 6.4

2009Average for „09 was 11.6%

*Source: Line chart relates to CSO latest estimates published March 2010 (seasonally adjusted standardised unemployed rates (SUR)

2009

12.5 12.5 12.7 12.612.512.6 12.614.0

17.0

13.2

15.5

11.5

5.5

3.94.4 4.4 4.6 4.8

5.3

6.1

7.2

8.6

9.4

10.210.7

11.2

12.211.9

11.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

'83 '86 '90 '93 '96 '99 '01 '05 '06 '07 Jan M arch June Sept Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2010

2010

QNHS July – Sept 09 = 12.4%

QNHS Oct – Dec „09 = 13.1%

(note higher compared to SUR)

26J.1814

Unemployment highlights of the latest CSO

QNHS Oct-Dec 2009

The rate of unemployment rose to a seasonally adjusted 13.1% over the final three

months of last year.

That figure was up from 12.4% in the previous three months and 8.1% a year earlier.

More than 60% of the fall in the number of men in employment is down to a drop of

77,700 employed in the construction sector.

Younger age groups have seen shocking rises in unemployment, especially for males.

Note that most of the damage was done in the construction sector. The

unemployment rate for 20-24 year-old males is 32.3%; for 25-34 year-olds, it has

reached 18.1%. Female unemployment rates in those age groups are about half of

those for males as female employment is skewed more towards public services.

At the end of last year, 189,100 men and 78,400 women were unemployed, which is

an increase of 57% for men and 49% for women over the year.

The unemployment rate among those with a third-level honours degree or above was

6.1%.

27J.1814

Unemployment highlights of the latest CSO

QNHS Oct-Dec 2009

Unemployment among those with a third-level non-honours degree was 8.6%.

The figures also show a sharp rise in long-term unemployment - people out of work

for more than a year.

The number of people unemployed in the final quarter of last year was 267,400, up

97,700 (56.6%) from a year earlier.

More than half of this increase was in long-term unemployment, bringing the number

of people under this heading to 89,100.

The long-term unemployed now make up one-third of total unemployment, compared

with just over a fifth a year earlier.

The number of non-Irish people in the labour force fell by 33,600 or 10% over the

year.

28J.1814

186,300

245,800

261,800

278,300

294,300

433,000

432,400

434,700428,900

426,800

425,400

427,400

412,900

400,900

387,200

371,000

351,000

325,700

236,100

225,900215,100

205,900

198,400

197,900

179,300

173,200

171,300166,000

167,000

423,400426,200

162,700150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

The Live Register Seasonally adjusted

* The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time work e.g. seasonal & casual workers who work up to 3 days per week

Total PersonsPersons on live Register

Month

*Source: CSO latest estimates March 2010

20092007 20102008

A slight monthly

increase registered in

March.

29J.1814

Biggest Baby Boom in Decades as Slump Hits Home

The recession appears to have sparked the biggest baby boom in nearly 30 years.

More babies were born during the third quarter of 2009 than at any time since 1980.

There were 19,289 births registered in that three-month period, an increase of 1.3pc

on the previous year.

Even more surprisingly, the number of babies born is a massive 38pc higher than it was

at the height of the boom in 2000, when fewer than 14,000 babies arrived in the

corresponding period.

This means the annual birth rate has jumped from 14.7 per 1,000 population in 2000,

to 17.3 births per 1,000 last year.

North Dublin mothers were the most fertile, with 23 births per 1,000 people in Fingal,

nearly twice the birth rate seen in Co Monaghan.

Almost one in three births nationwide was outside marriage, or 6,256 in total, although

more than half of the parents involved lived together.

Nearly half of all the babies born in Cork City (47%) were to unmarried mothers and

the rate in Limerick City was 46%.

*Source: CSO Estimates as of 25th March 2010

30J.1814

Pace of Decline Slowing

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4GDP

GNP

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q2

2008

Q4

2009

Q1

2009

Q2

2009

Q3

*Source: CSO Estimates as of 25th March 2010

%

GPD for the year was down 7.1% while GNP fell to 11.2%. This indicates that the Irish economy contracted at a record rate in 2009 – the largest decline in output recorded in a single year. However the annual pace of decline in GDP slowed considerably as the year progressed.

2009

Q4*

2008 2009

31J.1814

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan-

08

F eb

'08

M ar

'08

A pr

'08

M ay

'08

June

'08

Jul

'08

A ug

'08

Sept

'08

Oct

'08

N o v

'08

D ec

'08

Jan

'09

F eb

'09

M ar

'09

A pr

'09

M ay

'09

Jun

'09

Jul

'09

A ug

'09

Sept

'09

Oct

'09

N o v

'09

D ec

'09

Jan

'10

Value of Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trade)

Seasonally Adjusted Annual % ChargeBase: Year 2005 = 100

%

2008 2009 2010

* Source: CSO latest estimates March, 2010. Base year : 2005 = 100

Note the value of retail sales

decreased annually by

-8.3% (excluding Motor Trade)

-9.3-9.7

-10.4-12.6

-13.1

-10.8-11.8

-10.4-11.6

-12.1

-11.3-11.2

-8.3

32J.1814

79.6

93.2 93.3

95.3

94.1

80.5

108.1

116

110.8

87.987.1 87.7

89.4 88.890.3

91.9 91.1

96.295.8

94.995.6

93.8

107.3

92.6

114.7

107.7

83.6

89.4 89.190.8

94.4 93.8

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2006 2007 2008 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10

Value

Volume

Volume & Value of Retail Sales(All Business Combined)

2006-2009 (Index 2005 = 100)

Index

Value

Volume

Year*Source: CSO latest estimates March 2010.

2008 2009 2010

The total value of retail sales (all businesses combined) in 2009 decreased by -17.9% while volume declined by -14%.

34J.1814

Rate of Deflation Reversing Towards April „09 Levels

-3.2

-5.0

-3.9

4.3

-5.7

-6.6-5.9

-5.4-4.7

-3.5

-2.6

-1.7

-0.1

1.1

2.5

-6.5-5.9

4.0

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-

10

Feb-

10

% Annual Change

2008 2009

Prices fall by 3.2% in the year to February.

*Source: CSO latest estimates March 2010

2010

35J.1814

-4.2

-3.1

-3.9

-10.6

-0.2

-0.4

-1.5

-4.8

-11.4

-0.7

-8.0

2.2

3.9

10.6

Contribution of main CPI Groups to the overall CPI

Annual % change: February 2010

The only items increasing in price are State controlled ones.

Source: CSO March 2010

All Items

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Alcohol & Tobacco

Clothing & Footwear

Housing/Water/Electricity/Gas etc.

Furnishings/H/H equipment

Health

Transport

Communications

Recreation

Education

Restaurants & Hotels

Misc Goods & Services

Alcohol

36J.1814

APPENDICESThe Questionnaire

37J.1814

Better off 1

Worse off 2

The same 3

Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think

that the country is better off, worse off, or about the

same as last year?

Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the

country will be better off, worse off or about the same

as this year?Better off 1

Worse off 2

The same 3

Better off 1

Worse off 2

The same 3

Q.3 Do you yourself feel better off financially, worse off

financially or about the same compared to last year?

More confident 1

Less confident 2

No change 3

Q.4 In terms of your own economic well-being over the

year ahead, are you more confident, less confident or

is your confidence about the same as last year?

Higher 1

Lower 2

The same 3

Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after

inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as

in the last twelve months?

A lot higher 1

A little higher 2

No change 3

A little lower 4

A lot lower 5

Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares,

pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be

higher, lower or the same as in the past year?

PROBE: A lot or a little

More 1

Less 2

The same 3

Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more,

less or the same amount of goods and services as in

the past year?

SECTION ‘F’ - ECONOMY

ASK ALL RESPONDENTS aged 16+

38J.1814

More 1

Less 2

The same 3

Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount

in the year ahead compared with the last twelve

months?

SHOW CARD

Q.9 Are you very, somewhat, not very or not at all concerned

that you or someone in your household may lose their job

in the next six months?

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not very concerned

Not at all concerned

Someone in household has

already lost their job

Don’t know

1

2

3

4

5

6

SHOW CARD

Q.10 To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following

statements? READ IN ORDER

a) My household is struggling to make ends meet

b) Compared to a year ago, my household is

having more difficulty making ends meet

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

Strongly

agree

Agree Strongly

disagree

Don’t

knowDisagree

39J.1814

SHOW CARD’ ‘ AGAIN

Q.11 To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following

statements? READ IN ORDER

The recession is here, so people just need to get

on with living in this new world

I feel more in control of my spending nowadays

compared to last year

I am more careful about my money and what I

spend it on nowadays

I still treat myself nowadays despite the recession

I am actually saving more nowadays compared to

a year ago.

There are a lot of good deals around on different

products and services which I am availing of

I am spending more quality time at home

nowadays

I am cooking more at home this year

The recession will be over by the end of 2010

Now is a good time to retrain or educate oneself

The recession may be good for people in the long

run

I’m going to enjoy holidaying in Ireland this coming

year

Strongly

agree

Agree Strongly

disagree

Don’t

knowDisagree

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0

1 2 3 4 0