PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

January 18, 2019

HSL PCG “THE DAILY”

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

2

Close Points % Change

SENSEX 36374 53 0.15

NIFTY 10905 15 0.14

MIDCAP 15142 -45 -0.30

SMALL CAP 14612 -48 -0.33

Close Points % Change

REALTY 1870 21 1.13

OIL & GAS 13530 108 0.80

IT 14650 71 0.49

CD 21025 79 0.38

TECK 7332 23 0.32

Finance 5961 9 0.15

AUTO 19991 26 0.13

CG 17958 0 0.00

BANKEX 30812 -2 -0.01

POWER 1963 -1 -0.03

METAL 11101 -15 -0.14

Healthcare 14083 -129 -0.91

BSE %

ADVANCES 1043 38

DECLINES 1521 55

UNCHANGED 180 7

GAINERS % LOSERS %

MPHASIS 4.84 RELINFRA -5.80

GODREJPROP 3.86 SUNPHARMA -5.78

MINDTREE 3.03 YESBANK -3.31

BHEL 2.56 RPOWER -3.14

LTTS 2.36 NAUKRI -3.10

NIFTY SET TO OPEN HIGHER; HOLDING ON WILLREQUIRE STRENGTH

Rs Cr 17/01/19 16/01/19 Jan Total

FII 842 -90 -2875

MF -727 304 5098

Our markets showed tremendous resolve to close abovethe 10,900 mark, something they have not been able todo since January 1 of this year.

As things stand today, the Nifty is slated to open 50points higher. The benchmark will then be underpressure as profit taking sets in.

The U.S. markets have risen Wednesday to take theirback-to-back gains tally to three days. The gains camedespite clarification by the treasury department that theU.S. was not considering reducing tariffs on Chineseimports as reported by WSJ.

OPEC has cut demand forecast for its Oil by 0.91 million.What this means is that it dilutes the impact of theadditional cuts suggested by OPEC from January 1 thisyear.Reliance came out with its quarterly numbers yesterdayafter the markets closed. Though the company postedits worst GRMs of $ 8.8 a barrel in sixteen quarters, therevenue and profit increased more than expected. Theperformance of both retail and JIO was noteworthy.

Lever also came out with better numbers on a higherbase, albeit with a cut in margins.Reliance and Axis Bank look well placed.

Today is Friday. The Nifty will considered to have put agreat show, even if it closes with a nominal gains of 20odd points. This could make things easier for the nextweek.

RIL posts record US$ 1.5 billion profit; keytakeaways from resultsReliance Industries reported net profit as well asrevenue which were higher than analyst estimates forthe quarter-ended December. However, margins came ina bit lower than consensus estimates.

RIL reported marginally higher-than-expectedstandalone EBITDA given slight beat in GRM at $8.8/bblwhile petchem margin at 17.6% was in-line with ourestimates. Reliance JIO net profit increased sharply by22% q-o-q to Rs831 crore led by sharp increase in thesubscriber base while ARPU remained resilient atRs130/subscriber per month.

DOMESTIC INDICES VIEW POINT

SECTORAL INDICES

BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS

ADVANCE/DECLINES

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

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Close Points % Chg

DOW JONES 24370 162.94 0.67

S & P 500 2636 19.86 0.76

NASDAQ 7084 49.77 0.71

FTSE 6835 -27.76 -0.40

CAC 4794 -16.37 -0.34

DAX 5028 -5.81 -0.12

MSCI World 1967 2.89 0.15

MSCI EM 1009 4.28 0.43

MSCI AC Pac. 152 -0.08 -0.05

Value % Change

USD/INR 71.1 0.04

EURO/USD 1.140 0.01

USD/GBP 1.297 -0.08

USD/JPY 109.3 0.10

Value % Chg bps

IND10 Yr Bond Yield 7.48 +0.21

Value %

RJ/CRB Index 179.8 0.00

Gold ($ / Oz) 1291.1 -0.10

Silver ($ / Oz) 15.6 0.14

Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 61.7 0.83

Value $ %

Dr Reddys Labs 37.30 0.59

HDFC Bank 102.87 0.66

ICICI Bank 10.54 -0.28

Tata Motors 12.98 -0.69

Wipro 5.24 1.55

Vedanta Ltd 11.16 0.54

MTNL 0.38 -2.56

RIL reported record net profit of Rs 10,250 crore for thequarter-ended December which was ahead of estimatesof Rs 9,600cr led by retail as well as Jio business.

Net profit grew 7.7 percent on quarter-on-quarter basisand 8.8 percent on year-on-year basis.

Company reported consolidated revenues of Rs 1.6 lakhcrore for the quarter-ended December, up 56 percent onYoY basis. It reported revenue from operations of Rs1.02 lakh crore. Increase in revenue is primarily onaccount of higher price realizations and volumes forpetrochemical and refining businesses along withcontinuing strong growth momentum in consumerbusinesses.

Retail business and Digital Services business recordedan increase of 89 percent and 51 percent, respectively,in revenue during the quarter compared to thecorresponding quarter of the previous year.

Reliance Jio has reported profit at Rs 831 crore, higherby 22 percent as compared to Rs 681 crore in previousquarter and 65 percent as compared to a year-agoperiod.

Operating profit before other income and depreciationincreased by 21.3 percent to Rs 21,317 crore ($ 3.1billion) from Rs 17,580 crore in the corresponding periodof the previous year.

Gross Refining Margins (GRMs):

RIL maintained significant premium over Singaporecomplex margins due to product yield optimization androbust risk management. GRM for 3Q FY19 stood at$8.8/bbl, outperforming Singapore complex margins by$4.5/bbl.

GRMs were much lower than 9.5 percent in the previousquarter, falling for the fifth straight quarter.

Organised Retail Business:

Revenue for 3QFY19 surged 89.3 percent on YoY basisto Rs 35,577 crore from Rs 18,798 crore. Healthy festiveseason sales and new store openings resulted in anotherrobust quarter. Reliance Retail further consolidated itsleadership position and is India’s largest, most profitableand fastest growing retailer.

GLOBAL INDICES

EXCHANGE RATES

COMMODITIES

INTEREST RATES

ADR

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Segment EBIT jumped 210.5 percent YoY to Rs 1,512 crore from Rs 487 crore demonstratingstrong operating profit during the quarter.

Reliance Jio Profit surges on higher Subscriber Base

Net profit of the telecom operator rose 22 percent sequentially to Rs 831 crore in the October-December period. The company’s subscriber base breached the 280-million mark during thequarter.

Revenue rose 12.4 percent QoQ to Rs 10,383 crore. Earnings before interest, taxes,depreciation and amortisation rose 13.44 percent to Rs 4,052 crore.

Company’s average revenue per user fell for the fifth straight quarter to Rs 130, which is 1.5percent lower than the September-ended period.

Reliance’s Den-Hathway Deal

Reliance Industries had announced in October a Rs 5,200-crore deal with Den Networks Ltd.and Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd. to expand in the broadband and direct-to-home serviceindustry. The company said in a filing its awaiting regulatory nod for the deal completion.

Post-completion of the deal, Reliance and Jio will strengthen the business model of 27,000 localcable operators that are aligned with Den and Hathway across 750 cities, the company said.

HUL Q3 FY19: Volume led growth sustains on a high base

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) posted good set of Q3 FY19 earnings mainly led by volume growth.Domestic sales grew 13 percent YoY. Volumes rose 10 percent vs 11 percent in the basequarter.

One of the positive takeaways from the initial management commentary is that rural demandremained the flag bearer of overall growth. All the three divisions posted double-digit salesgrowth YoY making it the fifth such consecutive quarter. Among key trends from the quartergone by were premiumisation for fabric wash and personal wash, improved rural reach inhousehold care and new launches.

Gross margin contracted 76 bps on higher crude oil linked raw material cost in the quarter goneby. EBITDA margin, however, improved on better product mix, operating leverage and costrationalisation.

HUL expects merger with GSK Consumer Healthcare to complete in next 6-9 months.

Aurobindo buys 7 oncology injectable drugs in $300 million deal

Aurobindo Pharma’s subsidiary Acrotech has signed a definitive agreement to acquire a portfolioof seven branded oncology injectable products from Spectrum Pharmaceuticals in a US$300million deal.

Aurobindo will pay $160 million in cash up front and $140 million will be paid after achievingregulatory and sales-based milestones.

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The acquired portfolio of the injectables includes Fusilev (levoleucovorin), Folotyn (pralatrexateinjection), Zevalin (ibritumomab tiuxetan), Marqibo (vincristine sulfate liposome injection),Beleodaq (belinostat) for injection, Evomela (melphalan) for injection and Khapzory(levoleucovorin).

The products generated $76.4 million in combined sales in the first nine months of 2018. Theacquisition brings in an experienced branded commercial infrastructure in the US.

Aurobindo said that the transaction will be EPS accretive from first full year of ownership.

The portfolio is expected to generate around $100 million in revenue for Aurobindo in the first12 months after completion of the deal.

The deal would close within 90 days following the completion of customary and regulatoryconditions, including FTC clearance.

Other key results

AU Small Finance Bank Q3: Profit rises 20.8 percent to Rs 95.3 crore vs. Rs 79 crore; netinterest income jumps 38.9 percent to Rs 348 crore vs. Rs 250.4 crore YoY.

L&T Technology Services Q3: Profit falls 2.8 percent to Rs 185.6 crore vs. Rs 191 crore;revenue rises 4 percent to Rs 1,316.9 crore vs. Rs 1,266.1 crore; dollar revenue increases 4.8percent to $185.7 million vs. $177.2 million QoQ.

Cyient Q3: Profit falls 27.4 percent to Rs 92.3 crore vs. Rs 127 crore; revenue unchanged at Rs1,187.7 crore QoQ. Company will decide on share buyback on a later date.

Wipro board to consider bonus issue and quarterly results today

Wipro will consider a bonus issue proposal today. It is expected to report 2.2-3 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth in revenues in constant currency (CC) terms, which would fall in linewith 1-3 percent guidance the firm had given for the seasonally weak quarter. Margins areexpected to expand 20-50 bps sequentially.

EBIT margins to expand by 50 bps to 18.5 percent and PAT may grow 8 percent QoQ to Rs2,470 crore on account of base effect due to settlement charges in the previous quarter.

Key U.S. Indices

Dow 24,370 163 0.67%S&P 500 2,636 20 0.76%Nasdaq 7,084 50 0.71%

Markets Rise On Trade Hopes, But Pare Gains

Wall Street pared some gains as investor hopes that a U.S.-China trade deal could be in theoffing were dealt a blow by a Treasury spokesman, who downplayed a report from the WallStreet Journal suggesting that U.S. officials were warming up to the idea of scaling back tariffson Chinese imports to persuade Beijing to consider deeper concessions on trade.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

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Key Indices, which were treading water in the morning rose on the Journal’s report but closedwell off their highs on clarification from the spokesperson.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased an earlier loss to rise 163 points, or 0.67%, to 24,370in choppy trade. The blue-chip gauge was up 267 points at its session high.

The S&P 500 rose 0.76% and the Nasdaq gained 071%.

Caterpillar and Boeing, both barometers of global trade given their large internationalexposures, closed more than 2% higher, underpinning industrials and the broader market.

Financials continued to tack on gains even as shares of Morgan Stanley fell after its earningsand revenue for the fourth quarter missed estimates. Citigroup, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachsended the day higher.

In other corporate earnings, Netflix stock fell more than 2% in after hour’s trade on a mixedfourth quarter report that beat analysts' expectations but revenue fell short. The streaminggiant posted subscriber additions ahead of company guidance.

Energy names, meanwhile, shrugged off a slip in oil prices on the back off concerns over weakdemand and rising U.S. output.

The market’s upside was capped in early action by news late Wednesday that federalprosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into China’s Huawei Technologies Co. forallegedly stealing trade secrets from American corporations it does business with. Thedevelopment raised fears that broader tensions between the U.S. and China would prevent atrade deal to stave off the Trump administration’s planned increase in tariffs on a range ofimports from 10% to 25%, scheduled for March 1.

Meanwhile, investors were increasingly worried that a government shutdown, entering its 27thday, would deliver a more lasting impact to economic growth in the first quarter.

Economic data

On the economic front, the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits fellin the week ending Jan. 12, to 213,000 from 216,000 the week prior. Economists had expecteda reading of 220,000.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index rose to 17.0 in January, upfrom 9.1 in December, the bank reported Thursday. The index reflects the health of themanufacturing sector in Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey.

Other markets

Markets in Asia traded lower, with Japan’s Nikkei, China’s Shanghai Composite Index and HongKong’s Hang Seng all losing ground.

In Europe, markets ended mixed. The UK's FTSE 100 lost 0.40, the German Dax slipped 0.12%while the all Europe Stoxx 600 edged up 0.04%.

Gold settled lower and the U.S. dollar was mostly unchanged.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

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Oil edges Down 0.4%

Oil prices fell on Thursday on concerns over surging U.S. crude production and slack globaldemand, particularly in light of the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Thursday’s session down 24 cents, or about half apercent, to $52.07 per barrel, bouncing from a session low at $50.98.

International Brent crude oil futures were down 14 cents at $61.18 per barrel at 2:27 p.m. ET.The contract earlier fell as low as $60.04 per barrel.

In its monthly market report, OPEC cut its forecast for the average demand for its crude in 2019to 30.83 million bpd, down 910,000 bpd from the 2018 average.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

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NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY PCG TEAM ARE ON REAL TIMEBASIS. A TRADING RECOMMENDATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED ORSQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET IS TOUCHED IN INTRADAYTRADING. DO NOT WAIT FOR TARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSETHE POSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FOR TIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROMRECOMMENDATIONS.

DATA & EVENTS

OPEN TRADING CALLS

No. Reco Date Company Name Reco Cost SL Target

1 28-12-2018 TV18BRDCST (EMARGIN CALL) BUY 38.15-36.5 35 42.5

2 01-01-2019 SBIN (EMARGIN CALL) BUY 299.75-290 285 325

3 10-01-2019 TITAN JAN FUTURE BUY 970-962 953 993

4 15-01-2019 GNFC (E-MARGIN CALL) BUY 375.5-367 361 399

5 15-01-2019 NIFTY JAN 11000 CALL (IndExpress) BUY 84 50 160

6 17-01-2019 PFC JAN FUTURE BUY 109.45-108.5 107.7 114

7 17-01-2019 MANAPPURAM JAN FUTURE BUY 99.45-98.5 97.8 103

8 17-01-2019 NCC BUY 89.75-87 86 96

Date Script Name Fund NameBuy/Sell

Quantity Value

(Rs.Cr.)

NSE

N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

BSE

N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

* Bulk deals of only more than Rs.25 Cr are taken into consideration

BULK DEALS*

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

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DATA & EVENTS

DATE COUNTRY EVENT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS

18 01 2019 JN Industrial Production YoY Nov F -- 1.40%

18 01 2019 EC ECB Current Account SA Nov -- 23.0b

18 01 2019 US Industrial Production MoM Dec 0.30% 0.60%

TODAY’S EVENTS

DATE COUNTRY EVENT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS ACTUAL

17 01 2019 EC CPI YoY Dec F 1.60% 1.90% 1.60%

YESTERDAY’S EVENTS

RESULT CALENDAR-BSE500

DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY

18-Jan ATUL 21-Jan SUPPETRO 23-Jan DCAL

ICICIGI UNIONBANK ESSELPACK

KAJARIACER ZENSARTECH INDIGO

LTI 22-Jan APLLTD INFRATEL

NIITTECH ASIANPAINT ITC

SBILIFE HAVELLS JMFINANCIL

WIPRO HDFCLIFE MAHABANK

19-Jan HDFCBANK ICICIPRULI NAVINFLUOR

SOUTHBANK OBEROIRLTY PIDILITIND

21-Jan COROMANDEL RNAM RADICO

GHCL SHREECEM RAYMOND

HINDZINC SYNGENE RCOM

HUDCO TVSMOTOR TEJASNET

JUSTDIAL 23-Jan BASF UJJIVAN

KOTAKBANK CANFINHOME VIJAYABANK

L&TFH DBCORP

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DATA & EVENTS

COMPANY Q2FY19 YOY (%) QOQ (%)

Sales (Rs Cr)

NP (Rs Cr)

Sales NP Sales NP

Aditya Birla Money Ltd 40.5 2.4 -5.8 16.2 -6.0 0.4

Fiberweb (India) Ltd 35.1 6.1 -57.1 -40.6 -39.0 -21.5

Federal Bank Ltd 2954.4 333.6 18.1 28.3 6.9 25.4

Geojit Financial Services Ltd 68.3 10.2 -25.2 -51.0 -9.6 98.1

Mangalam Organics Ltd 121.4 26.3 55.0 587.7 11.3 41.5

Jiya Eco-Products Ltd 57.3 6.8 108.0 114.1 7.1 5.6

PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

RESULTS ANNOUNCED DURING MARKET HOURS

RESULTS ANNOUNCED AFTER MARKET HOURS

COMPANY Q2FY19 YOY (%) QOQ (%)

Sales (Rs Cr)

NP (Rs Cr)

Sales NP Sales NP

Burnpur Cement Ltd 23.6 -3.9 60.8 15.6 20.1 201.6

Hindustan Unilever Ltd 9357.0 1444.0 12.4 8.9 2.4 -5.3

Cyient Ltd 1187.7 92.5 20.8 6.2 0.1 -27.2

AU Small Finance Bank Ltd 788.3 95.3 69.8 20.8 15.4 4.3

L&T Technology Services Ltd 1316.9 185.6 35.9 47.0 4.0 -2.8

Reliance Industries Ltd 171336.0 10251.0 55.9 8.8 19.5 7.7

PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

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SUPPORT - RESISTANCE

LIST OF NIFTY STOCKS

COMPANY CLOSE R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

NIFTY 50 10905 10980 10942 10894 10856 10808

ADANIPORTS 394 401 397 392 388 383

ASIANPAINT 1389 1405 1397 1390 1382 1376

AXISBANK 675 688 681 674 667 659

BAJAJ-AUTO 2740 2766 2753 2727 2714 2688

BAJAJFINSV 6355 6541 6448 6392 6299 6243

BAJFINANCE 2531 2608 2569 2548 2510 2489

BHARTIARTL 331 339 335 333 329 326

BPCL 354 363 359 352 348 341

CIPLA 509 518 514 511 506 503

COALINDIA 232 234 233 232 231 229

DRREDDY 2620 2645 2632 2616 2603 2587

EICHERMOT 20335 21135 20735 20448 20048 19760

GAIL 333 338 335 331 328 324

GRASIM 826 847 837 829 818 810

HCLTECH 953 972 962 948 938 924

HDFC 2000 2023 2012 1995 1984 1967

HDFCBANK 2130 2149 2140 2127 2117 2104

HEROMOTOCO 2904 2974 2939 2902 2866 2829

HINDALCO 206 210 208 207 205 203

HINDPETRO 244 249 247 244 241 238

HINDUNILVR 1750 1794 1772 1757 1735 1721

IBULHSGFIN 816 869 843 827 800 784

ICICIBANK 374 380 377 375 372 370

INDUSINDBK 1518 1547 1533 1521 1507 1495

INFRATEL 281 286 283 280 277 274

INFY 733 744 738 734 729 724

IOC 138 140 139 137 136 134

ITC 293 298 296 293 290 287

JSWSTEEL 287 293 290 288 285 283

KOTAKBANK 1218 1239 1229 1214 1204 1189

LT 1343 1359 1351 1344 1336 1329

M&M 735 746 740 734 728 722

MARUTI 7330 7437 7383 7345 7292 7254

NTPC 145 149 147 146 143 142

ONGC 145 149 147 146 144 143

POWERGRID 194 196 195 194 192 191

RELIANCE 1133 1155 1144 1137 1126 1119

SBIN 297 308 303 299 294 290

SUNPHARMA 424 467 445 434 412 401

TATAMOTORS 185 189 187 185 183 181

TATASTEEL 472 481 476 473 469 466

TCS 1895 1915 1905 1888 1878 1861

TECHM 705 716 711 703 698 690

TITAN 959 972 965 959 952 945

ULTRACEMCO 3838 3959 3899 3854 3794 3750

UPL 767 779 773 767 761 755

VEDL 197 200 198 197 195 194

WIPRO 335 342 339 335 332 328

YESBANK 201 213 207 203 197 194

ZEEL 441 467 454 444 431 421

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

“THE DAILY”

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PCG TEAM

Name DESIGNATION EMAIL ID

Mr. Vinod Sharma Head, PCG & Market Strategy vinod.sharma@hdfcsec.com

Mr. Devarsh Vakil Head, Advisory devarsh.vakil@hdfcsec.com

Mr. Nandish Shah Derivative Analyst nandish.shah@hdfcsec.com

Mr. Vinay Rajani Technical Analyst vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com

Mr. Kushal Rughani Fundamental Analyst kushal.rughani@hdfcsec.com

Ms. Kinnari Patel Junior Analyst kinnari.patel@hdfcsec.com

Ms. Nisha Sankhala Junior Analyst nishaben.shankhala@hdfcsec.com

Mr. Dilip Parmar Currency Analyst dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com

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