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Executive Health and Safety

HSE futures scenario building The future of health and safety in 2017

Prepared by Infinite Futuresfor the Health and Safety Executive 2007

RR600 Research Report



Dr Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures c/o JB Lewis Wolfson College Linton Road Oxford OX2 6UD

This report describes the processes, output, and participant evaluations of a scenario-building project completed for the Horizon Scanning function of the Health and Safety Executive. The scenario process incorporated critical issues of change derived from 28 interviews of HSE policy-makers and outside experts. Participants in a two-day scenario-building workshop chose drivers of change from among these issues, and created a framework defining four different possible futures for health and safety in the UK in 2017. The scenario process also incorporated the emerging changes identified by horizon scanning as ‘hot topics’ for health and safety. Results from the workshop were written up in two formats:

n ‘research scenarios’ that include supporting evidence such as reference to other government agency foresight research and scenarios; and

n ‘workshop scenarios’ that present the key ideas in a vivid but compressed format to generate group dialogue.

As a test of their efficacy in generating policy discussion and ideas, the scenarios were deployed twice:

n at the HSE Horizon Scanning Conference in November 2006 to spark wide-ranging discussion of possible challenges facing the HSE; and

n in a subsequent wind-tunnelling workshop to demonstrate how scenarios can be used to consider specific policies in the face of potential change.

This report and the work it describes were funded by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Its contents, including any opinions and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect HSE policy.

HSE Books

© Crown copyright 2007

First published 2007

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

Applications for reproduction should be made in writing to:Licensing Division, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office,St Clements House, 2-16 Colegate, Norwich NR3 1BQor by e-mail to [email protected]

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research was a collaborative effort between Infinite Futures and SAMI Consulting in partnership with the Health and Safety Executive’s Health and Safety Laboratory Horizon Scanning Team. The project team gratefully acknowledges the support and participation of the HSE Strategy Division, and all the participants in the interviews, workshops, and HSE Horizon Scanning Conference.

SAMI Consulting: Adrian Davies Martin Duckworth John Reynolds Gill Ringland

Health and Safety Executive: Tony Bandle Samuel Bradbrook Roger Brentnall Geoff Brown Peter Ellwood Linda Heritage Elizabeth Hoult Nicolla Martin Jonathan Rees Tony Whitehead Zara Whysall

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CONTENTS

Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii 1. HSE FUTURES PROJECT DESIGN 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2PROCESS DESIGN 2

2. ISSUE INTERVIEWS 5 2.1 PROCESS 52.2 OUTPUT 62.3 EVALUATION 11

3. SCENARIO BUILDING 133.1 PROCESS 133.2 OUTPUT 193.3EVALUATION 26

4. SCENARIO INCASTING: HOLISTIC APPROACH 294.1 PROCESS 294.2 OUTPUT 294.3EVALUATION 32

5. WIND TUNNELLING: ANALYTIC APPROACH 335.1 PROCESS 335.2 EVALUATION 38

6. NEXT STEPS 416.1 DISSEMINATION WITHIN HSE 416.2 DISSEMINATION EXTERNALLY 416.3 ONGOING FORESIGHT 41

APPENDIX 1: INTERVIEWEES 43APPENDIX 2: FULL SCENARIOS 45APPENDIX 3: SHORT FORM SCENARIOS 87BIBLIOGRAPHY 101GLOSSARY: FORESIGHT TERMS 103

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Horizon scanning uncovers emerging issues of change. Change renders some habits and hardware obsolete while creating opportunities for new patterns of life and innovations. This dynamic can be productive, but it also destabilises and magnifies uncertainty. Horizon scanning offers a useful radar for identifying areas of approaching uncertainty, but making sense of change requires a different tool. For strategic thinking, that tool is scenario building. This report presents the results of the Health and Safety Executive’s (HSE) pilot project in assessing horizon scanning data via a participative scenario process.

The HSE wished to create plausible scenarios that depicted a range of possibilities for workplace health and safety in Great Britain in 2017 – a ten-year time horizon. These scenarios are not predictions, or even forecasts; they are stories and descriptions that explore possible future outcomes and thus inform strategic conversations. Two primary sources of data fed into the scenario building process: the ‘hot topics’ gathered by the HSE’s Horizon Scanning team, and critical issues of change identified in a series of twenty-eight interviews. The project team also cited evidence drawn from related scanning work by the Office of Science and Innovation’s Horizon Scanning Centre (now in the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills), and issues identified within relevant scenarios from other government agencies and related organisations.

The issue interviews were conducted with HSE staff, other relevant UK government agencies, and outside experts from academia and related private and non-profit organisations. During the interviews, the respondents were asked to think broadly about critical issues of emerging change. Interview questions asked people to consider not only optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for health and safety in the workplace over the next ten years, but also what needed to change to create positive outcomes, and what critical information and critical activities would be required. The in-depth responses resulted in an issues ‘workbook’ containing hundreds of issues.

From among the interview results the HSE project team chose twenty-six critical issues of change to inform the scenario building in this pilot project. The issues chosen fell into seven broad categories: 1) culture and society, e.g. dependency, social exclusion, the changing nature of the family, the blurring of home and work; 2) demographics, e.g. ageing, diversity, increases in the partially able workforce; 3) technology/science, e.g. the change in disruptive technologies – as illustrated by many of the horizon scanning team’s ‘hot topics’; 4) environment, especially climate-change- related shifts in legislation, regulation, and energy provision; 5) economics, e.g. the ‘hour-glass’ economy, changing work structures, decentralisation, and outsourcing; 6) politics, e.g. joined-up government, attitudes to risk and blame, and the changing nature of democracy; and 7) globalisation, e.g. offshoring, capital and competition, migration, and conflict.

These twenty-six issues provided the starting point for building the scenarios. After review and discussion, the twenty-six were prioritised by importance and uncertainty. Several issues were clustered, and two critical uncertainties emerged as primary drivers describing possible futures for health and safety: 1) are public attitudes towards risk those of personal responsibility, or of the ‘blame culture’? and 2) will the UK increase its competitiveness in the global economy?

These two uncertainties were used to construct a scenario cross, around which four scenarios were built.

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The scenarios were presented at HSE’s first Horizon Scanning conference in London in November 2006, where they were used in a scenario incasting exercise.

In December 2006 the scenarios were used in an internal HSE workshop in a wind-tunnelling exercise, the aim of which was to demonstrate potential uses of scenarios.

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1. HSE FUTURES PROJECT DESIGN

1.1 INTRODUCTION

1.1.1 Project Background

Britain’s Health and Safety Commission (HSC) and the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) are tasked with protecting people's health and safety by ensuring that risks in the changing workplace are properly controlled. In order to assess risks emerging from change and innovation, the Health and Safety Executive established a Horizon Scanning system, overseen by the Horizon Scanning Intelligence Group (HSIG). The Horizon Scanning team, located in the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), draws on the expertise of specialists within the HSE staff, particularly in the Corporate Topic Groups. The ‘informed customer’ for this scanning activity at the time of this project was the HSE Strategy Division.

Having initiated a robust, interdisciplinary scanning process, the next step in strategic foresight is linking scan data – emerging issues of change – with their potential policy implications. Scenario thinking allows people to explore possible future environments via stories that vividly express the potential impacts of emerging change. These stories create a shared language within the organisational culture that facilitates common understanding of strategic possibilities, opportunities, and threats. Thus the HSIG called for a scenario building project as the logical next step following scanning in building HSE foresight capacity.

The project as designed included three required processes and outputs: 1. Scenarios for 2017, clearly generated from horizon scanning data, and relevant to

strategic planning within the Health and Safety Executive. This process includes: a. Review of scanning data; b. Interviews to map stakeholder assumptions and perspectives on change; c. Scenario building, consisting of a participatory workshop and scenario write-up

and illustration; d. Horizon Scanning Conference participation; e. Wind-tunnelling HSE policy issues using scenarios; and f. Ongoing engagement with the horizon scanning data and scenarios.

2. Involvement of a wide variety of HSE staff and, where possible, HSE stakeholders in the scenario building and foresight activities.

3. Process knowledge management and coaching to increase HSE Horizon Scanning staff scenario building and foresight capacity.

The following pages describe the processes, the outputs, and the participant evaluations of this scenario building effort.

1.2 Scenario Building, Horizon Scanning, and Foresight

Scenario building – also called scenario planning or scenario thinking – is a technique widely used in both corporate and policy settings to enhance management of uncertainty. People have attempted to manage the uncertainty in their lives since the dawn of time; the I Ching and the Oracle at Delphi are both technologies designed to reduce uncertainty, no matter our opinion of their effectiveness. Bacon and Newton opened the door to more robust predictive tools in applying mathematics to closed, linear systems. Physics’ ability to predict outcomes in known physical systems seemed to promise an end to uncertainty – until Heisenberg pointed out that whatever we observe we change, often in unpredictable ways.

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The situation is even more difficult when we are attempting to predict living behaviour; ballistic trajectories and orbits are simple systems compared to the complications of life. The rise of systems science in the twentieth century gave us the paradigms of chaos and complexity. The first assures us that not all chaotic behaviour is random; close inspection of even turbulent systems reveals patterns of outcomes. Furthermore, living systems have the gift of adapting to turbulence. Out of our complex ability to adapt to changing circumstance, we create innovative ways of producing, consuming, organising, communicating and living with each other.

With these shifts in prevailing scientific paradigm from reductionism to systems thinking and from predicting single outcomes to mapping outcome patterns, the business of managing uncertainty changed as well. Foresight and futures research are no longer about predicting, but rather about forecasting, extrapolating, exploring, and managing uncertainty through dialogue and action. Peter Drucker famously said that the best way to predict the future is to create it. Scenario thinking assists that strategy by sparking discussion and dialogue about potential futures, exploring bands of possibility that may then be monitored for emerging probability – and evaluated for preferability. Corporations such as Royal Dutch Shell, Pfizer Pharmaceuticals, Swiss Re, and Unilever have all used scenario planning, as have government agencies including the Department of Trade and Industry, the National Health Service, the Corporation of London, the Scottish Executive, and the European Union.

Consider scenario thinking to be a robust form of contingency planning. All of us engage implicitly in scenario thinking every day. Take home insurance as an example – it is a strategy to manage the uncertainties of potential house damage. Fire, flood, theft, and vandalism are all possible futures for our homes. We hope they are not very probable futures. But explicitly acknowledging their possibility expands our strategic options. We can buy insurance to repair possible damage. We can respond even more proactively; we can install fire alarms. Thinking even further ahead, we can avoid buying a home in a flood plain. We can install security systems or join a neighbourhood watch scheme. But we must first have imagined the future possibilities before we can imagine the strategies to forestall them.

Scenarios are not limited to threat assessment. They also help us spot opportunities. Emerging technologies in green energy supply, sustainable construction, ubiquitous computing, and home communications and media systems offer today’s homeowner dazzling visions of future ‘eco-friendly smart homes’. But we must first be aware of those oncoming changes in order to build them into a scenario of home renovation – a scenario that increases the future resale value of our home considerably.

This illustrates integrated foresight. Horizon scanning enhances our awareness of emerging change. From the changes scanning identifies, we create stories of alternative possible futures, or scenarios. The scenarios in turn help us spot emerging opportunities as well as threats. We then lever those opportunities into strategies to create the futures we prefer.

1.2 PROCESS DESIGN

1.2.1 Design Overview

The research project began with a design meeting on 15 May 2006. The project immediately faced a challenge of compression. The ideal scenario process begins with issue interviews, followed by a series of issues workshops that let participants whittle the issues identified in the interviews down to the most critical potential drivers of change. This short-list of change drivers then feeds into a two-day workshop. During the workshop participants refine the drivers, choosing two to create a four-cell matrix defining boundary spaces of strategic

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uncertainty. Further research and additional workshops to add detail to the scenarios often follow the initial scenario definition workshop.

The project schedule required presenting the draft scenarios to the HSIG in October in order to plan their debut at the HSE Horizon Scanning Conference in November. The realistic limitations on assembling workshop participants in August confined the issues interviews to June, with time for only a single scenario-building workshop in late July, leaving August and September to write the scenario narratives. Thus the July workshop needed to serve two purposes: enable participants to engage with the critical issues for the first time, and also to build the basic framework for the scenarios. Compressing the process risked lack of clarity in the drivers, but the team considered the trade-off worthwhile to hit the October deadline.

HSE Scenarios: Project Inputs

Scenario Building 20-21 July 2006

Key Issues from Interviews June 2006

Ongoing HSE Scanning January 2005 - present

Hot topics, Emerging change

Participant Expertise July 2006

Scenario Drafts August - November 2006

Confirming scan data

Input from Related Scenarios August 2006 - present

Scenario Workshops November - December 2006

Participant Expertise November - December 2006

Figure 1 HSE Futures project timeline and data

As depicted in Figure 1, the project was designed to maximize the flow of evidence into the scenarios from multiple sources. HSE’s horizon scanning data as of May 2006 kick-started the process; the interview issues defined the scenarios; and workshop participants added their expertise and insights. The scenario drafts drew on both ongoing scanning and related scenarios by other organisations as additional evidence. The paragraphs below introduce the four principle phases of the project. The chapters that follow explain each in detail.

1.2.2 Issue Interviews

The project design called for approximately twenty ‘issue interviews’ with HSE policy-makers, topical experts, and leaders in related agencies and organisations. The interviews were designed to elicit respondents’ insights regarding emerging change, critical issues, positive and negative outcomes, and actions to create positive change. The team opted to use the ‘Seven Questions’ interview protocol (see Section 2.1.2), with which SAMI Consulting has extensive experience. Each interview was conducted with both an interviewer and a scribe, to ensure complete transcripts. To achieve the goal of building HSE staff capacity in foresight, HSE staff initially

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took scribe roles while learning the interview technique, and then took the interview roles in later sessions.

1.2.3 Scenario Building

The team designed a two-day scenario-building workshop for twenty-five participants (including the HSE horizon scanning staff). HSE had requested use of the ‘drivers matrix’ scenario approach popularised by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View, clarified by Kees van der Heijden in Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation and The Sixth Sense, and documented by case studies in Gill Ringland’s series of books on scenario use. This process creates scenarios from drivers of change whose outcomes are both highly important and highly uncertain. The issues interviews provided the pool of potential drivers for scenario participants to evaluate. The horizon scanning team’s ‘hot topics’ provided further data to flesh out the scenario framework defined by the drivers matrix. Participants then brainstormed specific details – timelines, future events, winners/losers – and closed the workshop by briefly discussing possible implications for health and safety generally, and the HSE.

Scenarios are based on documented evidence of emerging change. As they are usually expressed as stories about the future, the links to that evidence are not always clear. The project design addressed this by specifying the creation of two sets of scenario narratives: 1) extended scenario descriptions that included citations and references to emerging change – the ‘research scenarios’; and 2) shorter, more vivid descriptions suitable for quick review during participative work – the ‘workshop scenarios.’ The ‘research scenarios’ were drafted based on the scenario brainstorming output, augmented by foresight data. They were then reviewed by the scenario building participants. The more vivid ‘workshop scenarios’ were then extracted from the research scenarios. The entire project team contributed to expressing the shorter ‘workshop scenarios’ to ensure they would provoke discussion relevant to health and safety in the workplace.

1.2.4 Scenario Incasting: Holistic Approach

HSE’s Horizon Scanning Conference, held on 30 November 2006, provided a venue to debut the scenarios with a wide range of stakeholders. The project team seized this opportunity to test the workshop scenarios with a participative exercise. The Horizon Scanning Conference was broadly targeted to health and safety, workplace, worker, business, government, and academic participants. To capture a broad range of issues and questions, the team used an ‘incasting’ exercise. Incasting asks participants to consider the scenario as a whole, and then imagine what particular issues might arise in that future context for their topic – in this case, health and safety in the workplace. The technique provoked lively discussions and enabled an initial mapping of both emerging concerns and opportunities.

1.2.5 Wind Tunnelling: Analytic Approach

The final project activity was a smaller, in-house workshop for 20 HSE staff. This focussed on ‘wind tunnelling’, using scenarios to check the robustness of policy ideas across a variety of future environments. As a pilot exercise, the team chose eight policy options to analyse using the scenarios, as well as several issues that emerged from the plenary discussion at the HS Conference. Cross-scenario comparison of policy feasibility produced evaluations of ‘accepted’, ‘denied’, ‘contingent’, ‘mixed’, and ‘unclassifiable.’ Participants then focused on the ‘accepted’ decisions to brainstorm a ten-year goal for that policy, and relevant preparatory activities.

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2. ISSUE INTERVIEWS

2.1 PROCESS

2.1.1 Choosing Respondents

Issue interviews have two key purposes: 1) gathering insights from within HSE on critical changes it faces; and 2) gathering alternative perspectives and insights from a wider view. Among scenario planners, respondents chosen to contribute a wider view are colloquially referred to as ‘remarkable people’ (RPs). They are remarkable primarily in working outside HSE’s organisational culture and its filters; they see the world differently and ask different questions from HSE staff. While remarkable people also operate within institutional cultures that come with their own cultural filters, they are different filters. When possible, RPs are also chosen for their expertise in fast-moving areas of change relevant to the scenario focus, and for their ability to think ‘out of the box.’ Combining this external perspective with HSE’s internal perspective creates a greater depth of perceptual field – a parallax view of change.

To tap that wider view, the project team identified experts, leaders, and planners from academia and research as well as from relevant government, private, and non-profit organisations. The resulting pool of respondents offered gender, cultural, and professional diversity. In addition to HSE itself, organisations represented included trade unions, government science advisors, futures consultancies, academic research centres, and non-profits focussed on health, workplace safety, and rehabilitation.

2.1.2 Interview Protocol

The team agreed that resources (both time and funding) allowed for twenty interviews involving SAMI staff supported by HSL personnel, and supplementary interviews (subject to time limits) performed by HSL personnel only. All interviews used the ‘Seven Questions’ technique and followed the protocol described below. The key elements were:

• All interviews were unattributable. • Names of respondents were kept only on a master set of scripts, controlled by Infinite

Futures/SAMI and the horizon scanning team. • The respondents controlled the interview and told us what they thought was important

in the agreed context. • Interviewers avoided ‘leading the witness’. While they did ask supplementary

questions to draw out further evidence, every effort was made not to ‘shape the evidence’ for the respondents.

• After initial pleasantries and agreeing that the interview would take approximately 1½ hours, interviews began with agreement on the topic and on the horizon of enquiry.

• “May we agree that our topic is ‘the shape of society and government and its impact on health and safety’?” “May we agree to think towards 2017 and even beyond?”

• Before starting on the ‘Seven Questions,’ interviewers broke the ice by asking, “What do you see as the main issues affecting the shape of society and government, and its impact on health and safety, by 2017?”

• Respondents brought out 3 to 4 issues that were then developed in dialogue to provide a basis for the ‘Seven Questions’. This start gave respondents a chance to order their thoughts before the interview probed more deeply.

• The interview process then continued with the ‘Seven Questions’:

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1. Clairvoyant: If you could spend some time with someone who knew the outcome, a clairvoyant or an oracle, if one existed, what would you want to know? I.e., what are the critical issues?

2. An optimistic outcome: Optimistic but realistic. What would be a good outcome and what would be the signs?

3. A pessimistic outcome: How could the environment change to make things more difficult? What could go wrong?

4. The internal situation: What needs to change if your optimistic outcome is to be realised?

5. Looking back: Looking back 10 years, what successes can we build on and what failures can we learn from?

6. Looking forward: What decisions need to be made in the near term to achieve the desired long-term outcome?

7. The Epitaph: If you had a mandate, without constraints, what more would you need to do?

• After the ‘Epitaph’, interviewers asked respondents if they wished to add any further thoughts. At this point, the scribes were also asked if they wished to raise any questions arising from the interview material.

• The interviews concluded with thanks to the respondent and an invitation to comment on the process. If there were any reference to specific documents in the interviews, the interviewer requested copies, or details of where to find copies.

Each interviewer was assisted by a scribe (note-taker). This assistance enabled the interviewer to maintain eye contact with respondents and to follow their path of thinking closely. Interviewers could also more easily interject supplementary questions to develop ideas and expand the evidence, without breaking the ‘stream of consciousness’ of the respondents. Any significant points emerging from the interviews were highlighted in passing, as were any areas where further evidence or corroboration was needed.

2. OUTPUT

2.1 Creating the ‘Natural Agenda’

As the process unfolded, the total pool of respondents grew to twenty-eight. The resulting interviews generated over 250 pages of transcripts. When interviewers and scribes finished writing up their notes, they exchanged them to reconcile any inconsistencies, and agreed upon a final script. This was expressed in short paragraphs, each containing material on one issue, and allowed gaps for coding the script for entry into the interview issues database. The coding was done using a ‘trial agenda’- themes that emerged from the earliest interviews. This was refined with subsequent interviews into a ‘natural agenda’ that articulated the pattern of major themes encompassed by the interviews. When scripts were agreed, they were forwarded to Adrian Davies, the Interview Coordinator for analysis and coding.

The primary level and first sub-level of the ‘natural agenda’ are listed below. ‘External World’ and ‘Internal World’ refer to the external context of the organisation – HSE – and its internal condition.

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• External World o Economics o Government and politics o Infrastructure o Culture and society o Geography

• Market Interface o Markets o Competitors/partners o Market segments o Marketing

• Internal World o Structure o Culture o Competences o Resources.

The complete ‘natural agenda’ offers much greater granularity, coding responses into a variety of secondary sub-levels in addition to the categories listed here.

Coded scripts were then passed to Ann Hargreaves of SAMI who loaded them into a database, distributing each coded section into the ‘natural agenda’. This clustering put the evidence into a more organised, and hence more usable, format. It also ensured that the ‘workbook’ into which interviews were consolidated contained no connection to specific respondents. The ‘workbook’ is the basic record of the evidence gathered during the interviews. Interview responses are grouped under the headings of the ‘natural agenda’, which serves as an index for easy access. The ‘workbook’ is of great value in preparing for, and running workshops, as well as a valuable source of reference for training and other work. Key quotable issues in the ‘workbook’ material are also useful in illustrating issues of change for reports or other documents. These extracted quotes can also help in the naming of the consequent scenarios. A list of interviewees is given at Appendix 1.

2.2 Identifying Critical Issues

The issues workbook is a rich starting point for policy discussions. So rich that the research team began its analysis by acknowledging that a single scenario building project was insufficient to address all the issues the workbook contained. The team reviewed the interview output, highlighting the obvious gaps, major trends, and possible paradigm shifts. Of the critical issues and questions, the team chose twenty-six for participants to consider in the scenario building workshop.

Gaps

Some issues that the research team expected would surface did not. For example, if China continues economic growth at 10% per year, it will be three times bigger than it is now in ten years, with huge impacts on global economy and global workforce and implications for the UK workplace; no one mentioned this. As the respondent pool did not include educators, issues of the future of education, schools, and e-learning and e-training did not arise. Nor was an emerging shift to a more female-centric world mentioned.

Gaps also occurred in discussing health and safety. None of the respondents spoke of private or voluntary sector involvement in health and safety. Yet this could increase steadily over the next

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ten years with the increase in private sector activity generally. Very little was mentioned vis-à-vis dependency – people staying at home and living off the state – yet if disability is not addressed, the percentage of dependency in the population could grow.

With regard to HSE specifically, the interviews contained little detail about customers or duty holders. Some respondents did mention that HSE was going through a cultural change and re-framing some stakeholders as clients and customers, but those comments were very general. Finally, it was interesting how few international comparisons were made. To what extent do we link and liaise with other countries in regarding health and safety competencies, procedures, and regulations? Is there a worldwide basis for health and safety standards? Is health and safety a source of competitiveness? What opportunities exist for HSE to go out and spread the health and safety message internationally? How much data do we have as to whether an effective health and safety structure actually translates to higher economic competitiveness? These gaps in the issue coverage point are all potential weak signals of emerging change. They point to areas where further horizon scanning research may prove useful.

Trends

The interviews also uncovered what respondents felt were strong trends, or certainties. One obvious trend is the growth of older workers in the workforce. Patterns of work are changing as well. More and more people work on short contracts or are self-employed, and could be inadequately protected with regard to health and safety at work. The increase in disability is increasing emphasis on rehabilitation, but could also result in a shift from rehabilitation to accommodation of workers who are chronically disabled. Another trend is the growing emphasis on health rather than accident prevention. This will change HSE’s role in workplace health, e.g., rather than focusing on stress, focusing on well-being. Each of these trends could contribute detail in the scenario building process, emerging in every scenario, but unfolding differently in each.

Potential Paradigm Shifts

Currently our mental model of a typical workforce assumes healthy workers. In the future, that model may no longer apply. Ageing, stress, and health epidemics such as obesity suggest that much of the workforce will suffer health difficulties at least some of the time. Another current operating assumption is that the workforce is literate and numerate. As communications and media become increasingly pervasive, immersive, and intelligent, literate and numerate workers may represent a decreasing percentage of the future workforce. Finally, the risk exists that price pressures in the economic system may actually drive standards down, and more and more companies will see health and safety as a burden in an ever-more competitive global market.

Critical Issues and Questions

The project team (Infinite Futures/SAMI/HSL staff) reviewed the workbook and highlighted the following major issues as a starting point for this first HSE scenarios exercise. The quotes included are excerpts from the interviews; the ideas expressed may be provocative or controversial, but they were articulated to start discussions: they are not HSE policy. The numbers merely identify each issue, they do not indicate priority.

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Culture/society: 1. Happiness/well-being: more health, less accident prevention: “…in 10 years time, I

will be surprised if the overwhelming majority of medium to large employers don't have much more coherent strategies … providing real support and encouragement for staff to engage in leisure activities which are conducive to well-being.”

2. Dependency and self-reliance: “To what extent are people taking the initiative in managing their health and well-being; how much have they wanted to do this, rather than being compelled to…?”

3. Social exclusion or inclusion: “A good outcome would be a dramatic reduction in the number of people who are socially excluded. … we’ve still got a stubborn number of households in the UK where nobody works.”

4. Changing nature of the living unit, i.e., family: “There is a different dynamic around life, family life and the structure of society, single people, and care for the elderly. There will be very different challenges for people in terms of where their responsibilities lie.”

5. Blurring of work, e.g., in home/working patterns: “Home/tele-working is on the increase together with the more flexible use of time and a blurring of the interface between work and non-work time.”

Demographics: 6. Ageing and its impacts on the working population: “What shape will society and the

future workforce be? There will be lots more older people. What unknown health conditions could affect them in the workplace?”

7. Diversity of ethnicity and gender: “Racial equality is not just about black or Asian anymore, it is becoming increasingly more diverse. There are a growing number of ethnic groups. A large number of migrants now come from non-Commonwealth countries. …What about women? That is one of the key dramatic changes in the labour market. We can expect to see more, but there are still barriers, a glass ceiling, entrenched attitudes.”

8. Increase in partially able workforce (changing model of ‘average’ or ‘uniform’ employee): “…organisations will have to accommodate the needs of the older workforce - manage experienced frailty”. This is not too much of a problem as frailty is an extrapolation of disability. … Society’s understanding of disability is already happening. If you need staff enough and value their experience then you will accommodate them.”

Technology / science: 9. Increase in disruptive technologies: “There may be health scares around new materials

– chemicals, individual nano-materials that might be transported to parts of the body not reached by other substances. Carbon nano-tubes don’t seem to be as much of a problem as some say – they are difficult to disperse in air. We hope to have the methodologies to cope in time. Changes in regulation might be needed to control new materials – this is under debate in the EU and the US at present. We need to spot any new dangers early.”

Environment: 10. Effect of climate change on legislation and regulation, changes in energy provision, and

their effect on work and working environment: “How will we manage global warning and what will be the knock on effects in terms of health and safety? We need to understand the workplace implications of the new technologies that will come in. There might be numerous wind turbines on the work site, which help with sustainable energy, but are workers exposed to a new noise source?”

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Economics: 11. ‘Hour-glass’ economy: rising skills gap and lack of middle-range jobs; increased

number of degree-holders: “Intensive middle jobs will be cut out and the focus will be the top and bottom, the ‘hour-glass’ economy. The factors behind this are young people staying in education, older workers still leaving employment early, employers not tuned into retaining them.”

12. Shift to services and niche manufacturing: “Great Britain will be moving rapidly from a post industrial society towards a 3rd level – the knowledge society, based on IT. … We’re primarily a service economy. We need to move upmarket in manufacturing – technical innovation must be first priority.”

13. Changing work structures with more flexible, part-time, multiple jobs, short-term contracts – ‘precarious work’: “…huge amounts of contracting and sub-contracting and it is difficult to find out who is working for whom. Family companies have pretty much gone. Globalisation and takeovers will have an impact on workers, people have multiple careers, they move on more, they change work more. …There is no longer an expectation of having a ‘job for life’ and the service sector has a different range of risks and hazards, with, e.g., more movement between jobs and people having multiple jobs.”

14. Decentralisation of the economy, including increased entrepreneurship and SMEs: “Our approach to entrepreneurship is more accommodating now. Traditionally it was seen as an inferior activity, but now it is seen as a good activity.”

15. Outsourcing and the effect of the move from public sector to private and voluntary sector, and from large companies to small companies: “There is a continuing move away from large organisations and for more outsourcing of services, together with increasing home-working (i.e. working at home or using home as a base to work from).”

16. The role of an effective health and safety regime on competitiveness: “If the UK is under financial pressure, then there could be pressure to resist more expensive (i.e. safer) ways of doing things. Firms could have to justify health and safety in economic terms, e.g. ‘Good Health is Good Business’. There could be conflict if other countries don’t comply. … An optimistic outcome would be that HSE is seen as an enabler that adds value to GB plc – health and safety is a collateral benefit alongside other risks of businesses.”

17. Trades unions and employers’ organisations: “? The influence of trade unions is unpredictable – where are they going? There is a large proportion of non-union labour in the workforce – small companies, contingent work arrangements.”

Politics: 18. Joined-up government – central, local, regional: “There has been too much ‘working in

silos’ among different departments and agencies, which has led to the perception that government is not ‘joined-up’ at a central level, although there is a feeling that local government operates more effectively in this respect.”

19. Attitudes to risk (blame, litigation), including public and political attitudes to health and safety: “A change in societal attitudes to risk will have taken place such that there is more ownership of Health, Safety (and Well-being) and these issues will have been integrated into standard management practices, alongside and with a similar priority to, e.g., financial control.”

20. Attitudes to privacy, e.g., medical monitoring/invasive monitoring: shifting attitudes to ownership and security of personal and business data, and demands for regulation of privacy.

21. Regulation/deregulation vs. the role of enlightened self-interest (EU, CSR, GHGB): “In terms of regulations – [we could] end up with multiple standards so have to cherry pick as an organisation. Greater emphasis on self-regulation to enable industry to thrive, or a

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mixed approach - recognition for organisations doing well, harsher approach to organisations not doing enough. “Persuade people to do the right thing.”

22. Changing nature of democracy, e.g., increase in lobby and special interest groups facilitated by ICT and declining trust in institutions: “…growing societal disenfranchisement from politics and governance. Leads to single issue politics, which distort priorities and expectations, make it difficult to take broad views.”

Globalisation: 23. Off-shoring and its effects on the nature of work in Britain: “There is a question over

where the balance may be struck over free trade in goods and in people (i.e. will jobs move or will people migrate?)”

24. Capital, competition and effects on UK plc (cost pressures): “Our unique selling points are not cheap labour, not necessarily high skills, but entrepreneurship and education. [vs.] …An inexorable requirement to drive down costs for competitive reasons, resulting in, e.g. sub-contracting, extra layers of communication down the supply chain.”

25. Migration and effects on UK working population: “Currently the majority of immigrants are from Eastern Europe, I don’t know who they will be in the future, I don’t know if this will die down and there will be an influx from elsewhere. It will depend on what happens over the next 10 years; wars could lead to more immigrants coming to the UK. …That is an issue, whether or not we ghettoise the workforce in terms of ethnic origin. But health outcomes are undeniably worse for those people, and it's not actually much to do with occupational risk, in a sense of risk of hazards, but it's more about more complicated factors like psychology, control, sense of empowerment people have over the health outcomes, and so on.”

26. Conflict/war on terrorism, etc. and effects on stability: “Other major instabilities occur such as economic upheaval, war and conflict, without having civilised means of resolution – triggers could be e.g. crises in energy, food and water supplies…[re:] global terror, in terms of the break-up of Eastern Europe and the problems in the Middle East. Insecurity is rife. The government's solution to this global uncertainty seems to be to arm oneself with nuclear capabilities, rather than grapple with it. What is the ultimate direction?”

These twenty-six issues are weighted more towards society, culture, politics, economics, and global change than towards the environment or scientific and technological innovation. The single technological issue, ‘disruptive technologies,’ refers to the cluster of highly transformative innovations emerging in nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information technologies, and cognitive technologies. The HSE horizon scan’s ‘hot topics’ (see the next chapter) present specific examples of emerging disruptive technologies. The twenty-six issues chosen thus provided an appropriate human balance to the more technological focus of the ‘hot topics’.

3. EVALUATION

The project design did not call for formal evaluation by the respondents of the interview process. In hindsight, that would have been useful. The issue interviews do not merely gather data, although that is their primary purpose. They also serve to engage colleagues and stakeholders with the horizon scanning and scenario building processes within HSE. Explicitly asking respondents whether the interview engaged their interest in HSE’s horizon scanning and scenario efforts would have been informative.

On an informal basis, the interviewers and scribes reported that the responses were generally of high quality, demonstrating the broad thinking that HSE sought, and highlighting interesting

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areas for future research. Respondents mentioned that they found the foresight perspective and questions interesting, and appreciated the formal opportunity to reflect on big issues. They enjoyed the interview and looked forward to project results. The interviews helped to create a positive, interested word-of-mouth buzz about the project.

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3. SCENARIO BUILDING

3.1 PROCESS

3.1.1 Workshop Activities M

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More U

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The HSE Futures scenario-building workshop was held in Bootle on 21-22 July 2006. Twenty-five participants attended, of whom 22 were HSE staff and three people were from another agency, business, or academia. The workshop had three goals:

1. Acquaint people with the HSE Horizon Scan and the emerging changes it identifies; 2. Review and discuss critical issues facing health and safety in the workplace; 3. Build scenarios to help HSE and stakeholders think through possible outcomes

generated by the convergence of critical issues and emerging changes. The workshop activities included presentations on the critical issues and the ‘hot topics’ of emerging change, plenary discussions, and small group work. The scenario building itself focussed on ten-year futures for health and safety in UK workplaces generally, rather than on futures for the HSE itself. Specific process steps are described below.

Basic Process

The workshop began with an introduction to the project by Geoff Brown, and an introduction to the workshop process and agenda by Gill Ringland of SAMI Consulting. Peter Ellwood of the HSE Horizon Scanning Team then introduced the twenty-six critical issues identified in the issue interviews. The remainder of day one was devoted to four analytic tasks applied to the twenty-six critical issues:

1. Working in syndicates to identify any critical omissions from the list, and then refining it to a maximum of fifteen high priority issues;

2. Meeting in plenary to synthesise output from the syndicates into a master list of fifteen high priority issues for the future of health and safety;

3. Working in syndicates to sort the master list of fifteen issues onto a matrix of importance and uncertainty (see Figure 2); and

More Important

Scenarios are built from drivers. You need to Strong trends and

uncertainties in this plan for these. box, plus emerging Forecasting Units track issues and strong these. trends.

Context shapers. These Occasional review. need to be monitored.

Less Important

Figure 2 Scenario issues matrix

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4. Meeting in plenary to synthesise output from the syndicates into two critical questions to form the scenario cross – the basic framework that defines the outcome spaces of the four futures.

As a result of this process, participants identified a cluster of related issues resulting in the following two questions:

• Are public attitudes towards risk that of personal responsibility or of the ‘blame culture’? This cluster also included attitudes towards adoption of technology, ability to absorb impacts from conflicts and resilience in the face of economic, social, or other shocks.

• Will the UK increase its competitiveness in the global economy? This cluster also linked to harmonisation of regulations, numbers of the differently abled in employment, incorporation of migrants, vitality of the enterprise culture, expectations of well-being, and social cohesion.

Opposite possible outcomes of these two questions created the four arms of the scenario cross (see Figure 3).

Personal responsibility, pro-active adoption of technology, Management of risk, ability to absorb impacts of conflict/war, and resilience in the face of economic/social/other shocks

The Digital Rose Garden A Virtue of Necessity

Boom and Blame Tough Choices

iti itiDecreased UK compet veness

Increased UK compet veness

Blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of risk Shattered by impacts of conflict/war, and fragility in the face of economic/social/other shocks

Figure 3 Scenario cross and scenario titles

Owing to lack of space, Figure 3 does not specifically list the other issues clustered with ‘UK competitiveness’, but participants did consider those issues during their discussions.

Day two began with a review of the previous day’s work followed by a brief exercise with the group as a whole to name the four scenarios. The working titles proposed were ‘The Rose Garden’ (now ‘The Digital Rose Garden’), ‘Boom and Blame,’ ‘The Road to Nowhere’ (now ‘Tough Choices’), and ‘Strength in Weakness’ (now ‘A Virtue of Necessity’). The working titles helped to focus the scenario elaboration work by highlighting a core characteristic of each scenario.

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Peter Ellwood then presented the sixteen ‘hot topics’ resulting from HSE’s horizon scanning research to date. Those topics are explained in greater detail in the section below. As emerging issues of potentially disruptive change, they helped create truly dialogue-provoking scenarios. Participants were encouraged to add them into their assigned scenario following the rule of logical consistency – imagining how the particular hot topic might contribute to, amplify, or otherwise fit into the future they were describing.

The scenarios were built in syndicates. Each syndicate was prompted for details about their future by a series of questions:

• How is 2017 different from 2006? - In the UK, in politics, the economy, society, technology, or the environment? - Globally, in politics, the economy, society, technology, or the environment?

• What events, innovations, value shifts, etc. would need to occur for this scenario to happen? Create a timeline: 2007-2009-2011-2013-2015-2017.

• Pick at least two of the hot topics and describe how they have influenced conditions in 2017 in this scenario.

• What would the crisis wild card be – the Piper Alpha/BSE/Kings Cross – in thisscenario?

• Who are the winners and losers in this scenario? Personalise it, e.g. a female office worker; self-employed builder; seasonal migrant worker; differently abled clerk…

These questions elicited a vivid array of details about life in the four alternative futures. Each syndicate was then asked to prepare a ten-minute presentation describing their scenario – a news report from their future. The workshop closed with the presentations from each syndicate, after which participants discussed what each scenario implied for health and safety generally, and the HSE in particular.

HSE ‘Hot Topics’

Presenting and using HSE Horizon Scanning data was a key goal of the workshop. The Horizon Scan contributed sixteen ‘hot topics’ of emerging change to the scenario building exercise. All sixteen could potentially create challenging political, economic, environmental, and social impacts. That is, the issue is not so much if they will happen, as how they will happen. The scenarios create spaces to explore how these changes will emerge into daily life given different social, economic, and political conditions. Workshop participants had the freedom to build the topics into scenarios as they saw fit.

The sixteen ‘hot topics’ include: • Demographics and Ageing: Changes, especially as they affect workplace issues, in

population, ageing, gender, workforce by sector and occupation, ethnicity and migration, working patterns, housing and living patterns and the shape of industry.

• Nanotechnology: The design and manufacture of materials on the ‘nano’ scale (i.e., at sizes down to 1 billionth of a metre) have massive potential for application: sunscreens, anti-microbial coatings, self-cleaning windows and additives to improve the efficiency of diesel engines are all examples of products already on the market that incorporate nanotechnology.

• Recycling: The value shift towards sustainability encourages manufacturers and consumers to adopt a ‘cradle to grave’ attitude to waste minimisation. This could lead to a significant expansion in recycling activities, e.g. increased recycling of car components, plastics and electronic goods.

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• Human Performance Enhancement (HPE): Augmenting the capabilities of the human body using technologies including:

− Bionics: exoskeletons, arms, hands, eyes, some controlled by thought; − Body or brain implants: laboratory-grown or artificial hearts, lungs, etc.; − Brain implanted chips to control computers and robotic arms; − Cognitive enhancing drugs such as modafinil (to improve concentration,

memory, wakefulness and decision making); and − Genomics: gene therapy, stem cells, xenotransplantation, ageing studies.

These innovations augur an emerging era of technologically-mediated increases in human potential.

• Pervasive Computing: The concept of integrating computers into the environment such that people can interact with them more seamlessly. Also known as ‘ubiquitous computing’ or ‘ambient intelligence.’ Current examples include the use of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) tags and GPS systems in vehicles.

• Hydrogen Economy: A ‘fuel chain’ that transforms a primary energy source to generate hydrogen for fuel cells. These in turn provide power for a range of stationary or vehicle applications.

• Cyber Security: Attacks on IT systems by hackers, disgruntled employees and criminals are commonplace but are to date mostly being carried out for monetary gain. Increasingly similar threats exist to the safety of industrial processes from breaches in the security of safety-critical control systems.

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Sequestration: The current UK target calls for reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050. One option is to capture the gas at the point of generation (mainly during power generation from fossil fuels and during the manufacture of steel and cement) and then to store the gas underground.

• Obesity: the ‘obesity epidemic’ in the UK and other developed economies brought on by the increasing consumption of high calorie foods and reduced levels of exercise.

• Genetic Testing: Currently Britain has no law to prevent employers using genetic test results to decide who gets a job or pension. Genetic tests for susceptibility to occupational illness are being developed and a few have been used in UK and US workplaces, even though the tests are not yet thought to be accurate or reliable enough to predict whether an individual is at risk.

• New and Emerging Pests and Diseases: The emergence of new ‘pests’ in the form of flora and fauna or diseases (human or animal), which were previously rare or unknown in the UK. These could appear as a result of various external factors including climate change and the increasing migration and transport of people, livestock and food products.

• Biotechnology: The large-scale exploitation of microorganisms to produce pharmaceuticals, feedstuffs or other valuable metabolites, including:

− Gene Therapy: the potential to treat inherited disorders, cancer and some genetic diseases by explicit manipulation of living genomes;

− RNAi: Gene silencing technology offering the potential to treat genetic disease; − Biopharming: the use of genetically transformed crop plants and livestock

animals to produce valuable compounds, especially pharmaceuticals; − Synthetic Biology: the re-writing of the genetic code of DNA to create or

recreate microorganisms from scratch; and − Stem Cells: re-engineering stem cells to create therapies to treat disease.

• Terahertz Technology: This exploits the region of the electromagnetic spectrum between the Infrared and Microwave frequency ranges using relatively cheap, coherent (laser) sources and detectors. As it can non-harmfully penetrate a wide range of materials, it creates commercial opportunities particularly in medical imaging and security.

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• Robots and Artificial Intelligence (AI): The wider application of complex software and robotic systems to act as assistants to workers and in closer proximity to workers.

• Flexible Working and Employment Patterns: Increased adoption of flexible work and employment patterns (i.e. time flexibility, telework, and contractual flexibility).

• Do Keyboards Have a Future? Increasing use of voice-recognition software, virtual (laser projected) keyboards, and non-keyboard input devices like touch screens and gestural technologies.

These ‘hot topics’ are defined in greater detail in ‘Current Issues: health and safety in the changing workplace’, HSE’s horizon scanning briefing paper.

HSE’s horizon scanning data, and the ‘Current Issues’ summary, are linked to and corroborated by scanning databases in other UK government agencies, chief among them the Delta Scan of the Office of Science and Innovation’s Horizon Scanning Centre (OSI/HSC). Figure 4 maps the connections between the eight science and technology clusters derived from OSI/HSC’s Sigma and Delta Scans. The Sigma Scan is a quality-assured synthesis of existing national and international scanning work. The Delta Scan is a synthesis of key science and technology issues collected from over 200 scientists in the UK and USA. These key emerging science and technology clusters have the potential, over the period from 2015-2020, to transform the delivery of public services; challenge society; and/or affect wealth creation. Both Sigma and Delta Scan data, including the eight key clusters, have been integrated into HSE scanning data and the scenarios.

Figure 4 OSI/HSC’s 8 S&T themes and HSE’s “Current Issues”

3.1.2 Drafting the Research Scenarios

Drafting the research scenarios was a multi-layered process, beginning with synthesising and elaborating the ideas and details generated by each syndicate to create a coherent narrative. As they were drafted, citations of confirming data were added, as were links to relevant scenarios generated by other organisations. Depth and structure were added to the emerging story by drawing upon the perspectives of systems thinking, ethnography, and even integral philosophy. What feedback loops were driving the creation of each scenario? How do the resulting changes affect not only actions and infrastructures, but also deep structures like worldview, values, and identity?

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This deep dive into the scenario ideas generated by workshop participants rendered a more accurate view of each scenario’s core characteristic, resulting in adjustments to three of the names. ‘The Rose Garden,’ while undoubtedly rosy, is mostly so for the generation of digital natives, and thus became ‘The Digital Rose Garden.’ ‘Strength in Weakness’ describes people generating economic revival by creative response to challenges, and thus became ‘A Virtue of Necessity.’ Finally, the dark ‘Road to Nowhere’ focuses on the difficult trade-offs necessary in situations of straitened resources, and thus became ‘Tough Choices.’

The research scenarios for this project each begin with a brief overview of conditions in 2017 and the historical changes that created them. They then explore how life is different in the future in greater detail:1

• What concepts, ideas and paradigms define the world around us? • How do we relate to each other – what are the social structures and relationships that

link people and organisations? • How do we connect with each other – what technologies connect people, places and

things? • What are the processes and technologies through which we create goods and services? • How do we consume goods and services – how do we acquire and use them?

Each scenario ends by focussing on the changing workplace, and changed health and safety issues. The complete research scenarios are available as Appendix 2 of this report.

3.1.3 Drafting the Workshop Scenarios

With the rich details of the research scenarios in hand, compiling more vivid versions for use in participatory workshops began. These more vivid scenarios are less detailed by design; they must be quick to read in workshop settings, and leave holes for the imagination to fill. The project team all contributed to this effort, generating short ‘news editorials’, headlines, example companies, characters’ quotes, and core values. In addition, the following details were provided in brief for each scenario, to allow comparison across the four:

• Attitudes to personal responsibility; • Social structure; • Demographic patterns; • Use of ICT and pervasive computing; • Economic structures; • Consumption patterns; • Attitudes towards the environment; • Workplace characteristics; and • Health and safety context.

These workshop scenarios are brief, illustrated, and easy to read within five or ten minutes. They are presented in Appendix 3.

1 This organisational scheme is adapted from Global Foresight Associates’ “EthnoFutures Scanning Framework,” devised by Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum. This framework proposes organising scan data based on its point of impact on society, rather than on the origin point of the change. Michelle Bowman and Wendy Schultz, “Best Practices in Environmental Scanning: The World Beyond Steep,” presentation at the World Future Society, Chicago, 30 July 2005.

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3.2 OUTPUT

3.2.1 Overview

Remember, scenarios are not predictions of the future. They are vivid stories about possible futures. They help us explore the boundaries of uncertainty defined by specified drivers of change. They are used by organisations to develop and implement plans for the future. Scenarios written for interactive exercises are typically brief, depicted in personal rather than institutional anecdotes, and salted with humour (laughter aids impact and memory). But these are best based on research scenarios - longer narratives, depicted in broader terms. The summaries offered below are extracts from the longer research scenarios.

3.2.2 The Digital Rose Garden

Overview

Britain has harnessed the creativity of its diverse society to service both the economy and the environment. This renewed, cohesive spirit of innovation looks likely to create the ‘Roaring Twenties’ of the 21st century. A bumper crop of new businesses has energised the national economy. Graduates in the sciences and mathematics are partnering with the best in British design, generating economic value in biosciences, materials sciences, and nanotechnology, and attracting a brain gain internationally. Expert youth are working with experienced seniors on the real millennium challenges: global climate change, poverty, and sustainability.

British employees are staying at home, and so are Britain’s businesses. Offshoring is declining; as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and emerging economies increase their wealth and the salaries paid their workers, the comparative advantage of overseas labour has declined. Increasing international standardisation of regulations has also raised overseas operating costs, particularly in comparison to the leaner, rationalised regulatory framework in the UK.

Individuals are channelling their inner Edmund Hillary – or, more appropriately, their inner Kevin Warwick (pioneer in the human-machine interface; he embedded a microchip in his arm). It’s the age of cool explorers and new adventures; risks are acknowledged, weighed, and managed in cooperative public-private partnerships that enable a continuous stream of responsible innovation. This heightened comfort with managing risks heightens comfort with transformative technologies on an individual level as well; history may come to know this new ‘Roaring Twenties’ as the ‘Transhumanist Twenties’. Human performance enhancements, both pharmacological and bionic, are popular lifestyle design choices, especially among extreme sports enthusiasts. Britain’s next decade will transform its economy and environment for the better, but how will history judge the increasing transformation of humans themselves?

Health and Safety in the changing workplace

Workers no longer face a simple blurring between the workplace and the home. Wrestling with the challenges that blurring presents to work/life balance is relatively straightforward. Instead, the immersive computing and media environment through which everyone now moves has created a blurring between the workplace and everywhere – and everything – else. Mobile phones are embedded in sunglasses, so videoconferences can find you in Devon. Worse, an age of ‘peer production’ means people ‘work’ even as consumers.

The emphasis on local manufacturing and short-haul delivery drove most companies to decentralise their offices. Smart software puts resources where they are needed with minimal miles travelled. The same software helps employees cooperate to reduce resource consumption in both work and leisure. While offices are smaller and local, they are consistent in their design,

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amenities, and operations, facilitating consistent regulatory compliance across a company’s establishments.

People think differently about risk and safety now, in what analysts call “a return to a more rational view.” It is a world away from the legal micromanagement of personal risk that so characterised concerns about the ‘compensation culture’ a dozen years before. More funds and time are now invested in informing the public about the potential risks, costs, and benefits of new technologies, products and services. Over the decade from 2007-2017, the efforts of public agencies and others to manage risk and enable informed use of common sense have paid off.

The last ten years have seen a proliferation of health and safety consultants with expertise in different sectors – hardly surprising, given what seems like the almost weekly emergence of new areas of innovative production. It’s a scientific and technological conveyor belt and the challenge now is for public agencies, consultants and others to agree what the risks actually are, and how they should be managed and communicated consistently. To compound the problem, the variety of software and hardware systems now marketed to assist both businesses and private individuals in managing health and safety is skyrocketing. If historical business patterns hold, however, the 20s should see a consolidation of smaller H&S hardware and software firms and a rationalization of that market.

Winners and Losers

It’s a booming economy and winners abound. New lifestyle products and services have revolutionized leisure further from even the heady days of 2007 and Nintendo’s Wii. Huge steps forward in health biosciences hardware and software have allowed improvements in many conditions and have made healthy, active ageing the norm.

Employment is at an all-time high, especially employment of previously marginalised workers like the elderly and the differently abled. More economic centres exist, and they are more widely distributed throughout the country. The environment itself is both benefiting from increased accountability, and returning those benefits; with the increase in ‘low-carbon-cost at-home holidays’, Preston by the Sea and the ‘Devon Riviera’ exemplify the revitalisation of the British seaside resort – even given the risk of climate-change-intensified storms and storm surge.

The losers are insurance companies who see customers opting for lower levels of coverage. The increased understanding of relative risk makes people less litigious. With more food grown at home and a greater emphasis on ‘buying British’ to conserve transport fuel use and its carbon cost, import/export companies are also under pressure. The less well educated are marginalised, as they are less able to navigate the landscape of informed choice. Immigrants suffer a similar problem for a different reason; different cultural filters may make it difficult for them to assess risks adequately in the British environment. Finally, people who are unnerved by the emerging future of transhumanism and want to reject it may well find themselves marginalised.

3.2.3 Boom and Blame

Overview

The global economy of 2017 is a dog-eat-dog arena. Privatisation is up, and the market is free. Britain has a history of economic success and is relatively strong today, but how stable is that strength? People are worried about the future. What compounds the worry is the cost to the environment of maintaining economic vitality. Remember sustainability? It has taken a back seat to aggressive growth strategies, among them the loosening of environmental and health

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regulations. Companies are offshoring production to reduce costs. They are also offshoring waste to minimise disposal and remediation expenses. While British investors are moving aggressively into emerging markets, foreign investors are snatching up vulnerable UK companies.

Society prizes competition and assertiveness. Economic and social pressures to enhance business productivity mean that business owners have a vested interest in the wellness of employees. Companies now genetically profile prospective employees as a matter of course, and provide subcutaneous RFID wellness/environment sensors to assist employees in maintaining peak health and peak productivity. The economic value of proving ‘clean genes’ has produced a new extended family as a knock-on effect; genealogy has replaced sudoku, and relatives who find each other using online genealogy software often meet to discuss medical histories and stay to socialise.

The public mood is increasingly laissez-faire. Government is expected to be less intrusive in the business sector and less intrusive in private lives. The corollary is erosion of social safety nets. Influential commentators are focusing on what they call an increasingly polarized society, with privileged enclaves and ghettoised communities. But the tide of communitarianism seems to be rising; more voters are voicing dissatisfaction with rising crime and the growing indigent population.


Manufacturing has mostly been outsourced and offshored. The workplace today is the office more than the factory floor. Where businesses have consolidated, the work environments are standardised for the sake of efficiency of supply and training. But shifts are longer; pressure to produce keeps workers at their desks well into the evening. Life has lost out to work in the battle for work/life balance.

At first corporate genetic profiling was used to identify workers particularly sensitive to chemicals and substances used in innovative materials production. The increasing sophistication of genomic analysis allowed companies to evaluate candidates’ fit to corporate culture in terms of metabolism, personality, and vulnerability to stress. These screening programs are the first step in corporate HR support for the use of human performance enhancement (HPE) drugs and technologies by employees. Company cafes offer an array of sanctioned HPE drugs, and corporate training includes instruction in their use. Monitoring and screening employees’ behaviour and health at work and at home permits the HR team to monitor staff productivity. It’s all about additional competitive edge. (“Maintaining productivity is a 24/7/365 endeavour!”)

But issues of trust, privacy, and liability are still rife, and the tightest corporate cyber-security can be found firewalling the HR health sensor nets. Initially employees accepted intrusive ‘chipping’ because in a buyers’ market for labour they had little choice. Of course, there were also economic incentives in the form of reduced insurance premiums and a higher salary scale. Most people now acknowledge the physical benefits.

In FTSE 100 companies, employers view worker health and fitness as a strategic resource ensuring high productivity. Successful employees guard their health as a resource with concrete salary implications. These perspectives render genetic profiling and subcutaneous RFID health sensors non-controversial. In free market conditions, the insurance industry drives health and safety, spurred on by litigation. Consumer health issues and public safety are as big a priority as workplace safety.

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Stress is the top health issue among the employed as hazards from the more traditional industries have reduced. Worsening air quality coupled with stress-depressed immune systems has caused a resurgence in respiratory infections.

Obesity is on the decline among the haves, more because it is perceived as unproductive and uncompetitive than specifically for health reasons. The chronically under- and unemployed – whose ranks currently equal 20% of the potential workforce – remain the hotspot of the lingering obesity epidemic.

Winners and Losers

In the competitive, privatised landscape of 2017, skilled workers have an advantage. Likewise, physical disability is overlooked in the balance with education, expertise, and essential good health, so it is a win for the differently abled. Healthcare professionals also win, as their salaries increase, although competition for work is stiffer – but so it is for everyone.

Guaranteeing consistent productivity is key. Thus long-term ill health – physical or mental – is a significant disadvantage in the employment market. Inadequately prepared school leavers cannot compete in this market.

3.2.4 Tough Choices

Overview

The present is a landscape littered with tough choices; the future seems nasty and brutish. Any comparative advantage that Europe once enjoyed on the global economic stage has evaporated. The declining economy drove the best and brightest of the young overseas searching for well-paid careers. Innovation has slowed as a result. Unemployment is high while at the same time low-end jobs go begging. More and more often those jobs are filled by migrant workers or illegal aliens.

Social divides and alienation have amplified from the millennium on. Rising resentments generated more litigation and ambulance chasing as people strive to blame someone else for their grievances. Disaffected youth join gangs that split community turf. News from urban neighbourhoods looks like coverage of civil war – local riots are common, and local policing is tougher in response.

Sweeping deregulation across Europe was hoped to jump-start the economy. The only result so far is an increase in air, soil, and water pollution. The grey and black economies have certainly been growing – but that trend preceded deregulation, as organised crime disregards regulations in any case.

While still free at the point of delivery, the NHS is under tremendous pressure. Private health insurance is expensive but those that can afford it, pay. Analysts worry that the UK is on the brink of complete societal breakdown; new data suggests increased malnutrition and declining life expectancy.


The health divide grows wider; there’s not enough work and for those at work, precious little well-being. The priority for people is to have at least one job, particularly a job that may offer the holy grail of perks such as a pension and private health insurance. Accusations of the

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‘nanny state’ have long since withered on the vine of history – no one expects the state to nanny anybody anymore. It’s a competitive and cut-throat society. Each looks out for number one.

Businesses are struggling and cutting costs. The average workplace, whether a manufacturing floor or a business office, is showing signs of wear and tear with little hope for renovation or updating in the near future. Old machinery, worn flooring, jury-rigged wiring and over-taxed ventilation and exhaust systems combine to create health hazards and the potential for accidents. Employers are juggling resource costs, staffing costs, and the need for capital improvement, and health and safety considerations often lose out in the trade-off.

In a stripped down regulatory structure, safety at work rather than health is the priority for employees. People know that health is important – the campaigns of a decade before hit their targets – but why worry about long term health when an accident at work may strike you first? Already, the media are referring to Britain’s accident epidemic, an epidemic that is amplifying litigation, as injured parties look for means to punish offending employers and obtain financial redress. Too often their litigation goes nowhere – employers can’t or won’t pay and the will isn’t there to make them do so. But some high profile cases against organisations with deep pockets succeed and this encourages a ‘have a go’ mentality. So individuals still over-eat, drink too much, and smoke, but are more prepared to lay the fault at the feet of the marketing people, brewers, and cigarette manufacturers.

Stress, pollution, and street violence have reached heights not seen for thirty years. Under-reporting of health and safety failures in the workplace is rife – and the system in any case lacks the resources for anything more than low-level interventions and the investigation of serious incidents. Given the dominance of the black market, huge numbers of workers fall outside those regulatory regimes that remain.

Winners and Losers

The new barons of the black economy are definitely benefiting from the ‘Wild West’ environment of stripped down regulations. The boundaries between the legal and black markets are narrowing. Street peddlers selling cheap knock-offs are seeing higher growth than the high street stores. Those few companies willing to play fast and loose with the remaining laws and regulations can match organized crime in generating wealth. A flexible ethical and moral framework is a competitive advantage in this environment.

Longer-term economic recovery is emerging where CEOs have retrenched, making strategic trade-offs among staff numbers, capital improvement, and workplace standards. Improved workplace health and safety standards are attracting better staff and avoiding lawsuits. With consumers retrenching as well, discount retailers and wholesale clubs are forecasting some improvement in consumer purchasing.

Youth bright enough and with sufficient initiative to scout out opportunities overseas are coping, if not benefiting.

Basic research is suffering, as is higher education generally; resources are scarce and business foundations have much less money than in past. Older people find themselves in dire straits as public programs evaporate and even their pension payments decline. Other populations in need are also suffering, with incapacity benefits sharply curtailed. Recent immigrants, whether legal or illegal, have a particularly hard time.

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3.2.5 A Virtue of Necessity

Overview

Britain now resembles one great seaside town. More and more UK communities – even cities – consist of older people, needing services more than consumer goods. The local economy provides the services, and while goods are imported, consumers now buy for durability and extended uselife. As traditional industries declined young workers started out-migrating and looking elsewhere for employment. With fewer people supporting more elderly people and large corporations relocating to Asia, the economy contracted. Entrepreneurial activities are smaller in scope; more business initiatives are local, resulting in less wealth generation nationally.

The gap between haves and have-nots has widened. Society as a whole has looked for ways to retrench. Increasingly, people are choosing to reject consumerism in favour of a shift towards increased self-sufficiency. Those who remain form, in one sense, more tightly knit communities, which are more focussed on self-reliance than the communities of 2006. While this certainly means a gain for sustainability, it is more the self-reliance of the war garden than the eco-tribe. Nonetheless, the avalanche of data confirming global warming did accelerate the growth of environmental values, as did social and business strategies pioneered by change organisations such as Clinton’s Global Initiatives in 2006.

People now take greater responsibility for their own well-being and for the well-being of their environment. What bodes well for a future revitalisation of UK competitiveness is a national mood of adventure. Britons are responding to the current challenges with resilience and creativity, working together to innovate and create new businesses and renew their communities.


Britain has fewer large industries and large corporations that standardise office practices and environments throughout their branches. The proliferation of small businesses, local businesses, and at-home businesses creates widely varying work environments. The line between work and home continues to erode. The increased value placed on achieving work/life balance is countered by labour demands and many people’s need to work two jobs, or one job in conjunction with elder care or self-sufficiency tasks. Work at home allows more seamless integration of elder care, but it also lowers productivity owing to the distraction quotient.

One emerging reason for optimism, however, is the increasing trend for small businesses to share office space and support staff, leveraging dynamically administered resources to function more efficiently and parsimoniously. Implementing ‘green office’ design is also easier when resources are shared. Less waste and lower operating costs allow these office cooperatives to invest more in creating a healthy workplace environment.

With regard to health and safety, fear and uncertainty have driven people to think, “If I don’t do it for myself, no-one else will do it for me.” It’s a brave new world of personal responsibility, driven as much by galloping technological process and the emergence of increasingly complex health and safety issues as from any increase in individual or social enlightenment. Detection and prevention of ill health causal factors is the key. Health agencies are moving into the roles of coaches and advisors. They provide resources that enable people to take responsibility for their own well-being more effectively.

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Immersive monitoring systems and ‘wellness webs’ allow more efficient monitoring of health and stress indicators throughout an individual’s day. Businesses and employees who can afford the system find that it not only aids productivity, but reduces employee health costs. As a result, the bell curve of workplace health and safety has widened and flattened; we see more exemplary practices, but also more reports of businesses attempting to fly under the regulatory radar to save costs.

Many businesses have simply cut and run. Recession-induced pressures on profit margins increased the offshoring of innovation, R&D, and production by those who could afford it. Offshoring was welcomed by some environmental campaign groups, though by no means all, as a means of protecting Britain’s natural environment from experimental or industrial disasters. The sluggish economy did create some bargains for overseas buyers, with some British companies going cheaply. However, their new overseas owners tended to bring their own attitudes and approaches to health and safety issues. In some sectors this mattered little; in others, a lot.

Winners and Losers

The winners in 2017 are the self-sufficient, high-tech, green micro-energy producers and consumers in the wealthier rural communities. Landowners in those communities have benefited from the increased demand for land for the self-sufficient lifestyle. Pensioners who can afford the supportive technology are better off, as are those who belong to support networks or have either successful or devoted children on whom they can rely. Private security companies are succeeding, as are small businesses developing wellness products or services, especially those that are locally unique. Digital media and experience economy entrepreneurs are beginning to re-establish a name for British design. In politics, proportional representation has created a lively, if fragmented arena for special interest groups – and political extremists.

But the losers are too often the young and working age adults, especially those with minimal education whose traditional industrial jobs are disappearing. Pensioners whose children out-migrate and who lack the resources or support networks suffer from the erosion of public assistance. While 2017 contains the potential for new growth, it is still for too many an era of struggle.

3.2.6 Commonalities and Contrasts

The review of the HSE ‘hot topics,’ above, pointed out that the issue is not so much if they will happen, as how they will happen. One use of the four scenarios is comparing how innovations or structural changes might play out in the different future environments they portray. A good example of this is ‘pervasive computing.’ Pervasive telecommunications and media, ubiquitous computing, and RFID/nano ‘smart dust’ sensors are certainties; an immersive media and computing environment will exist in all four scenarios. The critical difference will be why and how those systems are used, and who has access to them:

• In ‘The Digital Rose Garden,’ pervasive computing creates a seamless, immersive digital data/media environment that overlays the real world and that everyone accesses constantly.

• In ‘Boom and Blame,’ a more limited version allows total lifestyle, environment, and performance monitoring by companies via implants tracking working wellness and productivity.

• In ‘Tough Choices,’ pervasive computing is a luxury of the wealthy; government uses RFID implants to track felons, and gangmasters use them as ‘inventory tags’ for migrant workers. Everybody else gets by with cell phones.

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• In ‘A Virtue of Necessity,’ people use pervasive computing to link family and local community, and for environmental and health monitoring and problem detection; it eases home care and enables telemedicine for seniors.

Extrapolating how impact patterns of a specific detail will vary across the four scenarios is also known as ‘incasting.’ Given a set of clearly defined scenarios, this exercise can be used to explore alternative outcomes for almost any issue or innovation. The table below offers two more examples: human performance enhancement (HPE), and sustainability.

Table 1 Comparing Human Performance Enhancement and sustainability outcomes across the four scenarios Scenario HPE Sustainability The Digital Used for extreme sports Rose pursuits and as a lifestyle Garden choice.

‘Green de luxe’: sustainability for design elegance and parsimony of system solutions

Boom and HPE drugs distributed by ‘Success first, sustainability later’: Blame companies as a key only a wealthy, expanding economy

competitive edge enhancing can afford sustainability -- the ‘trickle worker productivity. down’ approach.

Tough Used by organised crime ‘Conserving to cope’: no available Choices elements; distributed to illegal capital to invest in green retrofitting or

workers by gangmasters to entrepreneurial initiatives. extend work hours.

A Virtue of Used to cope with the ‘Shabby green’: sustainability forced Necessity demands of multiple jobs and by economic limitations -- don’t have

senior care responsibilities. much so you don’t use much: reduce, re-use, recycle.

As HSE’s Horizon Scanning continues to identify emerging issues of change, the four scenarios can help explore their possible impacts and outcome patterns.

3.3 EVALUATION

The project aimed to involve HSE staff and stakeholders in joint foresight activities. Creating a positive experience for participants would in turn help foster a foresight culture within HSE. Participant reviews of the scenario building workshop were positive. Over 70% rated the content ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ with respect to the 26 major issues from interviews; the ‘hot topics’; developing the scenarios; and presenting the scenarios and brainstorming health and safety issues. When asked if they felt they understood scenarios better as a result of the workshop, 23% responded with a 5, ‘completely’; 71% with a 4; and 6% with a 3, on a 1-5 scale where 1 equalled ‘not at all’ and 5 equalled ‘completely’. When asked if they thought the session was interesting and worthwhile (using the same 1-5 scale), 50% responded with a 5, ‘completely’; 44% with a 4; and 6% with a 3.

Written comments included the following:

• “…a very valuable exercise which was extremely enjoyable to participate in…” • “…would like to do it all again with my fuller understanding of the process now!” • “I must admit I wondered what this was all about and was a little sceptical at first. I

finished a strong supporter and thought it was worthwhile and well organised.”

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• “I greatly enjoyed the workshop and found it a valuable introduction to the concept of scenarios. I feel the process has considerable potential and will help HSE teams to develop a long-range view and ensure that we are ready to meet future challenges.”

The feedback did point out some perceived weaknesses in the content, as well as strengths of the process, e.g.

• “Hot topics were largely about technological developments - whereas societal and managerial (psychosocial) practices are of equal if not greater importance.”

• “I thought that the contributions captured in debate after each presentation were useful in augmenting each scenario descriptions, therefore making them more realistic.”

The most serious weakness was perceived to be the time constraint. As the team anticipated when designing the project, compressing so many tasks into one scenario workshop, even if two days long, was frustrating to participants. The process was successful in provoking thoughtful dialogue and people wanted more time for in-depth discussion and to clarify both the interrelationships among issues and the issue priorities. Comments that reflect this frustration included:

• “…would have been better if we had had a bit more time for discussion - also hindered by some people having left early…”

• “I felt this was a bit rushed and we came up with scenario axes that some of us felt were not quite right…”

• “…One of the axes appeared to reflect two different issues. Also the axes we ended up with reflected different concepts that made the work on the next day more difficult not to say impossible…”

This demonstrates the need for stand-alone issues workshops to digest the wealth of data generated by the issues interviews. More time for discussion and analysis of the complex issues raised by the interviews would enable the creation of more concise and consistent scenario axes.

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4. SCENARIO INCASTING: HOLISTIC APPROACH

4.1 PROCESS

4.1.1 Context: The HSE Horizon Scanning Conference

HSE’s first horizon scanning conference – Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace – was held at the DTI Conference Centre in London on 30 November 2006. The primary aims of the workshop were to:

• Work with others in identifying and exploring the key new and emerging risks for the health and safety system

• Explore the policy implications, for regulators and others, of these new and emerging risks.

• Support and contribute to the Wider Implications of Science and Technology (WIST) Programme, led by the Office of Science and Innovation.

• Broaden the ‘horizon scanning for health and safety’ community.

About 100 delegates from government, industry and academia met to hear a range of invited speakers and to work with HSE’s newly completed Scenarios for the health and safety system in 2017.

The exercise set for delegates was Scenario Incasting, a holistic approach to working with scenarios in which groups are asked to imagine the specific details of a possible future based on a more general scenario description.

4.1.2. Activity Instructions

After a brief introduction to the scenario building process, delegates were split into six breakout groups, each of which was asked to work with one scenario. Two groups worked with A Virtue of Necessity, two with Boom and Blame, and one each with Tough Choices and The Digital Rose Garden. Each group was assisted by a facilitator and a scribe.

Ground rules

Delegates were given five minutes to read a two-page summary of their scenario. They were then asked to split into twos or threes to discuss the following questions:

What does this scenario imply for health and safety in your organisation or profession?

What does this scenario imply for stakeholders in the health and safety system and what should they be doing to prepare for this future?

After about ten minutes a group discussion was initiated in which the issues raised were discussed and delegates produced a list of key issues to report back to the plenary session.

4.2 OUTPUT

4.2.1 Scenario Discussions

The following points were reported back from the breakout groups.

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A Virtue of Necessity

Groups 1 and 5

• Importance of education; teaching children now about health and safety • Communicating and influencing … • …and identifying the key stakeholders • More local-based regulation; greater role for LA activity; and for local support

networks • Training in safety as well as health • With SMEs, fiscal incentives rather than sanctions – changing behaviour • H&S merges with Environment – one hit, high impact, integrated intervention • Fitness for work – standards for fitness given changes in ageing, generational lifestyle

differences

A Digital Rose Garden

Group 2

• Choice vs coercion (you have no choice in this scenario) – growth in mental health issues

• Polarisation of society – wills/will nots – some will opt out → dual approach from HSE, both guardian/enforcer vs advisor, plus more education re risk management

• Changing relationships – blurring of work and home, which requires HSE to abandon distinction between occupational and public health. Also requires a more holistic focus on well-being, and closer relationship between occupational health and the social services.

Boom and Blame

Groups 3 and 6

• From regulation to litigation – from criminal courts to civil courts • Individual – has more responsibility, but less freedom • ‘Karoshi’ – STRESS – working until you drop • Quality of life ”bloody awful” • Major accidents due to loss of expertise, competitive insularity – risks due to holes in

expertise → major accident potential • Implications for surveillance of workers/workplace – could be used for regulation tool

by HSE • Can HSE regulate the rate of change?

Tough Choices

Group 4

• Fewer resources for health and safety – but it’s declining in priority anyway – the focus shifts to enforcement

• Less compliance, conformance – less insurance

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• Big risks to the social progress of the last 30 years, especially in disability rights and health and safety – the ‘social scrapheap’

• Lower standards at work leading to lower standards at work (a downward spiral) • Storing up trouble for the next 30 years – e.g. asbestos No. 2 • Fewer big global H&S champions among companies • Higher accident rates all round.

Common Themes

The following common themes were identified from the group feedback:

Education – informing and preparing the next generation of stakeholders about emerging risks, sensible risk management and communicating risks, in an environment where public attitudes to risk and responsibility may have been influenced by debate and action on public health issues such as obesity, technological advancement and climate change.

Role and nature of regulation – reviewing the regulatory framework, assessing its adequacy for controlling changing risks in the changing workplace, where the latter is quite likely to be subject to the interdependent but not necessarily mutually compatible impacts of, for example, demographic change, human performance enhancement and new ways of ‘real-time’ monitoring of workplace/worker health.

Crossovers and blurring – not just between, for example, occupational health, public health and common health issues, but between the work and the home; between health, safety and environment issues; between national and local priorities for health and safety; between privacy and monitoring at work; and between national security and personal liberty considerations – all of which may be influenced by developments in issues such as recycling, pervasive computing and the impact of environmental legislation.

Division and competition – not just between the haves and have-nots but, for example, between environmental and health and safety issues, between national and local priorities, large and small organisation priorities, work and home, technological advances and morality/ethics (for instance, with reference to the employment of those who may be genetically predisposed to certain occupational diseases, or in biotechnologies).

Continuing links to well-being – building upon the ‘good jobs, good health’ agenda, developing Health Work and Well-being, in an environment of changing demographics, flexible and/or precarious working and shifting employment patterns and increased workplace monitoring (whether for productivity or health reasons).

4.2.2 Plenary Discussion

The report back from the breakout groups was provided by Dr Schultz, and was followed by a Panel Session chaired by Jonathan Rees and featuring:

Patrick McDonald – HSE Chief Scientist Pam Hurley - Managing Director, Tosca Consulting Lisa Fowlie – President, Institution of Occupational Safety and Health Mark Du Val – Director of Policy, Local Authority Coordinators of Regulatory Services

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This provided a further opportunity for delegates to draw out and discuss topics of relevance. Key issues that emerged included:

• Work related road safety and the role of the regulator; • Separating the enforcer and the regulator; • Blurring of work and home, for example in causation of musculoskeletal disorders – the

role for ‘systems thinking’; • Disabilities and developments in ensuring equality in the workplace; • Merging of Health & Safety and Environment disciplines; • The barrier the tax regime imposes on back to work initiatives; • The role of education in sensible risk management; • The role of trades unions in well-being management; • Health and safety and the role of small businesses; • Developments in Corporate Social Responsibility and their potential for impact on work

related risk management; and • Is there the political will to act on issues thrown up by horizon scanning?

4.3 EVALUATION

Delegates were each asked to complete an evaluation questionnaire.

Overall feedback on this event was positive, with the vast majority of attendees rating it as good or excellent. The mix of those with experience of horizon scanning and those without was about even, but again the majority learned something new. The most commonly mentioned benefit was the variety of stakeholders and interest groups represented and the opportunity to network.

Looking to the future, most attendees indicated that they would provide feedback to colleagues about the event, while a small number went so far to indicate they would like to develop their own scenarios.

The scenarios session itself produced the most diverse feedback, ranging from “not differentiated sufficiently” to “entirely credible, almost here today”. Having said that, the majority of attendees reported that they found the scenarios “thought provoking”. From HSE’s perspective, outputs from the discussion groups on the scenarios really enriched our findings and will be of great value both in informing the final versions of the scenarios and in helping HSE continue to take forward this work.

Finally, looking to future engagement, there was a high degree of interest in a quarterly newsletter.

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5. WIND TUNNELLING: ANALYTIC APPROACH

5.1 PROCESS

5.1.1 Context

An alternative to the holistic approach to the use of scenarios, which was used at the November conference, is wind-tunnelling, or the analytic approach. With this approach, scenarios are used to test specific policy ideas or proposals.

A workshop was held on 7 December 2006, attended by 22 members of HSE staff and facilitated by the Infinite Futures/SAMI team.

The purpose of the workshop was not to produce any definitive conclusions on specific issues, but to demonstrate the principles behind wind-tunnelling. Therefore a range of issues was considered and this report does not go into the detail of the deliberations on particular issues. To do so on the basis of such a short session could give misleading impressions of future directions and so this report concentrates mainly on the methodology.

5.1.2 Activity Instructions

First Exercise – Review the Scenarios

In the first exercise delegates reviewed a set of elements common to all scenarios and considered their implications for HSE strategy. They were asked to indicate on a Characterisation Chart (an example of which is shown in Figure 5) the anticipated situation in 2017 in their scenario with regard to various parameters. They were also asked to identify key indicators for each scenario, i.e. clues that a particular scenario might be developing.

Characterisation

Compared to 2006, the UK social situation in 2017 will be:

Less Blame culture

Less prosperous

Work time and personal time are

distinct

Regulate to change

behaviour

Less Intrusive Safety regime

Decentralised government

More Blame culture

More prosperous

Work time and personal time are

blurred

Free market & price signals to change

behaviour

Intrusive Safety inspections

Centralised government

2006

X

X

X

X

X

X

Scenario - Rose Garden

Figure 5 Scenario Characterisation Chart

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Key Scenario Indicators

The following key scenario indicators were identified for each scenario.

The Digital Rose Garden - Reduction in economic gap between rich and poor - Low carbon footprint – increase in green products/technologies etc - Accelerated adoption of technology

Boom and Blame - Structural differences; mergers; consolidation of services; locally – chief

executives and ? - Increasing stress – cited as a cause of work absences, more people working

long hours and more poverty at the bottom. Tough Choices

- Rise of the spiv- Organised crime/black market

A Virtue of Necessity - Romanians flood to Ireland

Second Exercise – Wind-Tunnelling Conference Outputs

In this exercise, delegates were asked to consider various policy options arising from the findings of the November conference. Figures 6 to 9 below list the findings from the conference for each scenario, alongside possible policy options. It is important to stress at this point that the policy options listed were produced by the project team, not HSE policy makers. They were selected for the purposes of this exercise only and do not necessarily reflect any policy that HSE might consider in the future. The policy options selected for the workshop are highlighted.

What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health

and safety system, of these scenarios?

A Digital Rose Garden:

• Choice vs. coercion (you have no choice in this scenario) --growth in mental health issues

• Polarisation of society -- wills / will nots -- some will opt out >> dual approach from HSE, both guardian/enforcer vs. advisor, plus more education re: risk management

• Changing relationships --blurring of work and home which requires HSE to abandon distinction between occupational health and public health. Also requires a more holistic focus on well-being, and closer relationship between occupational health and the social services.

The Digital Rose Garden

Possible Policy Options1. Develop expertise and policy in the area of

mental wellbeing

2. Equal or more weight to roles of advisor / educator than to guardian / enforcer

3. Distinguish more clearly between the roles of enforcer and advisor – two brands, if not two organisations

4. More focus on risk management education. Teach children about H&S: Introduce risk management into the curriculum / scouts etc.

5. Abandon distinction between occupational health and public health

6. Develop expertise and policy in the area of holistic wellbeing

7. H&S to develop closer partnerships with with public health bodies. Build closer relationships with occupational health and the social services

8. Merge H&S with public health bodies

Figure 6 Policy options for ‘A Digital Rose Garden’

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What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health and safety system,

of these scenarios?

Boom and Blame:

• From regulation to litigation -- from criminal courts to civil courts

• Individual -- has more responsibility, but less freedom

• “Karoshi” -- STRESS -- working until you drop

• Quality of life “bloody awful”

• Major accidents due to loss of expertise, competitive insularity -- risks due to holes in expertise >> major accident potential

• Implications for surveillance of workers/workplace -- could be used for regulation tool by HSE

• Can HSE regulate the rate of change?

Boom and Blame

Possible Policy Options

1. Develop expertise and policy to cover stress

2. Move towards civil litigation to modify behaviour, rather than criminal sanctions. Introduce an insurance-based Health and Safety system, (e.g. based on the German model)

3. Introduce and enforce policies to promote continuity of safety oversight in companies

4. As pervasive surveillance is used as a tool to aid productivity, HSE should expect to use such facilities to regulate and oversee working practices

Figure 7 Policy options for ‘Boom and Blame’

What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health and safety system,

of these scenarios?

Tough Choices:

• Fewer resources for health and safety --but it’s declining in priority anyway --the focus shifts to enforcement

• Less compliance, conformance -- less insurance

• Big risks to the social progress of the last 30 years, especially in disability rights and health and safety -- the “social scrapheap”

• Lower standards at work, leading to lower standards at home (a downward spiral)

• Storing up trouble for the next 30 years -- eg, asbestos no. 2

• Fewer big global H&S champions among companies

• Higher accident rates all round

Tough Choices


1. Communicate with and influence the public on the need for continuing Health and Safety oversight

2. Focus efforts on enforcement

3. Maintain safety standards at work, despite lack of public support

4. Scan for future asbestos-like issues. Cooperate with other agencies’ scanning efforts (DEFRA and environmental health?)

5. Prepare policy responses to possible changes to accident rates, driven by changing economic circumstances outside of HSE control

Figure 8 Policy options for ‘Tough Choices’

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What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health and safety

system, of these scenarios?

A Virtue of Necessity:• Importance of education: teaching

children now about h&s

• Communicating and influencing…

• …and identifying the key stakeholders

• More local-based regulation; greater role for LA activity; and for local support networks

• Training in safety as well as health

• With SMEs, fiscal incentives rather than sanctions -- changing behaviour

• H&S merges with Environment -- one-hit, high-impact, integrated intervention

• Fitness for work -- standards for fitness given changes in ageing, generational lifestyle differences

A Virtue of NecessityPossible Policy Options

1. Teach children now about H&S. Introduce H&S into the curriculum

2. Communicate with and influence the key stakeholders

3. Introduce more local-based regulation; greater role for LA activity; and for local support networks

4. Prioritise safety above general health training

5. Introduce fiscal incentives rather than sanctions for SMEs, to change behaviour

6. H&S to merge with Environment to create a one-hit, high-impact, integrated intervention

7. Adapt standards for fitness for work to accommodate changes in ageing, and generational lifestyle differences

Figure 9 Policy options for ‘A Virtue of Necessity’

In the first part of the wind-tunnelling exercise, delegates were asked to work through two initiatives per syndicate with the aim of classifying them as success, failure, contingent or unclassifiable. This was done using a simple score card, shown in Figure 10, in which the viability of a course of action in each scenario is considered.

Wind Tunnelling – Example

Virtue of

Necessity

Equal or more weight to roles of advisor / educator than to guardian / enforcer

Become an

Enforcement

Organisation

Focus

efforts on

enforcement

Tough

Choices

Boom

Blame

Rose

Garden

10 year

Destination

Policy

Option

Figure 10 Wind-tunnelling score card

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The second part of the exercise required delegates to ‘flesh out’ successful or accepted and contingent initiatives as follows. Figure 11 shows the various outcomes of the wind-tunnelling exercise and the actions that could follow each outcome.

Actions and Strategies

Short-termAction

10 y Destination

PreparatoryActivity

ScanningActivity

10 y Destination

ContingencyPlanning

? ? ? ?

Low-costPlanning

10 y Destination

ResearchProgramme

??

10 y Destination

ReviseScenarios

FocusedScanning

Accepted

Mixed

Contingent

Unclassifiable

Figure 11 Actions and strategies following wind-tunnelling

These are as follows:

• Accepted initiatives: Describe the policy initiative as a set of short, medium and long term commitments. Add short term actions needed to prepare for medium and long term decisions.

• Contingent initiatives: Develop and outline a decision tree for contingent decisions. Specify monitoring programme for decision indicators (e.g. the Key Scenario Indicators identified earlier). Consider any low-cost preparatory work that could or should be done even before a decision to commit is made.

• Unclassifiable initiatives: Describe a research programme needed to reach a decision.

Third Exercise – Develop and Test Own Policy Proposals

In the third exercise delegates were invited to repeat the second exercise, but using policy proposals not considered so far, using as source material:

• The Horizon Scanning Hot Topics List (Section 3.1.1) • Issues from the Interview Workbook (Section 2.2) • The November Conference Output Common Issues (shown below in Figure

12)

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Common issues:

• Educating next generation of stakeholders re: emerging risks, risk management -- and communication

• Role of regulation

• Crossovers -- blurring between home / work, health & safety / environment

• Links to well-being -- should not look at health and safety in isolation

• Divides -- big and small, skills and not, will and not

Common issues


1. Teach children now about h&s. Introduce H&S into the curriculum

2. Move towards civil litigation to modify behaviour, rather than criminal sanctions. (e.g. Insurance model?)

3. Extend the role of the Health and Safety system into: traveling on business; commuting to work; working at home; leisure activities in public places; leisure activities in private

4. Start a public debate about the trade-off between Health and Safety and environmental action

5. Measure HSE success in terms of general well-being, rather than accident rates

Figure 12 Common issues from November conference

5.2 EVALUATION

Delegates were asked to complete an evaluation questionnaire. Overall the response was positive, with 91% of delegates reporting ‘Good’ to the question on whether the event met their expectations.

Most delegates found the instructions clear and that the sessions helped them picture the scenarios clearly and helped them expand their thinking on the policy approaches considered in the groups. They welcomed the opportunity to engage with colleagues and to acquire a greater understanding of scenarios and how they can be used.

Individual comments received included:

On the process –

“The way the issue to be tested is framed is crucial. Too bland or unspecific an issue could produce a bland response.”

“This was interesting in that the views on what we were wind-tunnelling varied – was it HSE action and how we could influence things, or was it a wider action that may influence a policy or activity?”

“It is difficult to picture how these scenarios might ‘pan out’ but the notion of thinking ahead and planning policy considerations is very clear in my mind following the exercise.”

“Not enough time for the exercise.”

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“I think it would have been better to concentrate on one initiative and do it in more detail. There wasn’t really time to discuss the topics and come to a considered view about the scoring.”

On future actions –

“Encourage HSE to engage with DWP at a more senior level to extol the virtues of theapproach.”

On possible future topics –

“The project looking at the ‘footprint’ of HSE i.e. its geographical locations.”

“How HSE can influence H/S systems and awareness at school level [8-15 yr?] What novel wayscan HSE use to persuade school authorities and children to accept that H/S is a key learning skill and competence for the future world of work?”

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6. NEXT STEPS

6.1 DISSEMINATION WITHIN HSE

Why engage in scanning and foresight? The flow of new ideas builds flexibility into an organisation, creates a learning culture, and encourages innovation. You can’t force people to look ahead – but most do welcome the opportunity for reflective and creative thought. Start by involving those who are most interested in exploring the future, and build positive word-of-mouth. Encourage that with robust foresight tools, a clear evidence trail, and conclusions that are both thought provoking and concrete in their implications.

Keep the scenarios alive. Create a menu of ways you might use them for different audiences. This could include:

• Use the scenarios yourselves: as new ‘hot topics’ arise, imagine how they might emerge in each of the four futures, and what questions, challenges, or opportunities they would create.

• Present examples of incasting or wind tunnelling output in the scanning newsletter, highlighting interesting applications of the scenarios to specific issues and questions.

• Offer half-day, on-site “scan and scenarios” workshops to specific teams within HSE. Do mini-interviews by phone with participants first to determine what issues they think are critical, and use those to focus presentations and scenario exercises.

• Explore values: ask people to choose what they most like and most deplore in each scenario and use the resulting discussion to articulate and fine-tune a preferred future for health and safety in the workplace, and HSE’s role in assuring that.

• Update the scenarios: change changes, and so should the scenarios. Monitor the news for events that match the scenario patterns, potentially confirming them, altering them, or rendering them obsolete.

Using the scenarios in a variety of activities and settings will allow you to evaluate how they can most effectively contribute to a culture of foresight within the HSE.

6.2 DISSEMINATION EXTERNALLY

The Horizon Scanning Conference generated a lot of interest both in HSE’s Horizon Scanning efforts, and in the scenarios. This needs to be built on by:

• Producing a Horizon Scanning Newsletter. • Using the scenarios to engage with HSE’s stakeholders, for example, by running short

workshops. • Continuing to expand the range of short form reports on hot topics. • Promoting the scenarios through the OSI FAN Club (Future Analysts Network).

6.3 ONGOING FORESIGHT

The scenarios have brought together much of the information gathered in the first eighteen months of the operation of HSE’s new horizon scanning system. They can be used now to guide future scanning activities. Now that the scanning groundwork has been carried out and that new topics may well not surface so frequently, it may be appropriate to turn the focus of activity towards dissemination

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of the findings at the expense of scanning, although scanning does, of course, need to be continued.

42

APPENDIX 1: INTERVIEWEES

Professor Raymond Agius, Professor of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, University of Manchester Dr Janet Asherson, Head of Policy, CBI Dr Andrew Auty, Managing Director, Re: Liability (Oxford) Ltd Stephan Bevan, Director of Research, The Work Foundation Gary Booton, Director of Health, Safety and Environment, EEF The Manufacturers’ Organisation Bill Callaghan, Chair, Health and Safety Commission Sandra Caldwell, Director Field Operations, HSE Kären Clayton, Head of Process Safety Corporate Topic Group, HSE Mike Cross, Head of Operations, Construction Division NW, HSE Dr Andrew Curran, Director Health Improvement Group, Health and Safety Laboratory, HSE Dr Paul Davies, formerly Head of Hazardous Installations and Chief Scientist, HSE Dr Brian Fullam, Head Corporate Science and Knowledge Unit, HSE Rory Heap, Disability Rights Commission Professor Sir David King, Government Chief Scientific Adviser Keith Montague, formerly development Director, CIRIA Kevin Myers, Head Hazardous Installations Directorate, HSE Michael Parkes, Head of Environmental Health and Trading Standards, Sandwell MBC Professor Monder Ram, Professor of Small Business, De Montfort University Jonathan Rees, Deputy Director General, HSE Kevin Ross, Director of Legal Services and Enforcement, Commission for Racial Equality Dr Robert Turner, Head of Occupational Hygiene Specialist Group, HSE David Wallington, Group Safety Adviser, BT Professor David Walters, Seafarers International Research Centre, University of Cardiff and TUC Chair of the Working Environment Lawrence Waterman, Chair of Sypol and Head of Health and Safety, Olympic Delivery Authority Dr Angela Wilkinson, Director, Scenarios and Futures Research, James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford Jerry Williams, Head of Human Factors Group, Health and Safety Laboratory, HSE Jane Willis, Strategic Programme Director, HSE Richard Worsley, Director, The Tomorrow Project

43

APPENDIX 2: FULL SCENARIOS

The full or research scenarios for this project each begin with a brief overview of conditions in 2017 and the historical changes that created them. They then explore how life is different in the future in greater detail:

• What concepts, ideas and paradigms define the world around us? • How do we relate to each other – what are the social structures and relationships that

link people and organisations? • How do we connect with each other – what technologies connect people, places and

things? • What are the processes and technologies through which we create goods and services? • How do we consume goods and services – how do we acquire and use them?

Each scenario ends by focussing on the changing workplace, and changed health and safety issues.

45

47

HSE

Sce

nario

Pro

ject

: The

Dig

ital R

ose

Gar

den

Intr

oduc

tion:

Th

is s

cena

rio is

one

of a

set

of f

our c

ompr

isin

g H

SE

’s S

cena

rios

for t

he F

utur

e of

H

ealth

and

Saf

ety

in 2

017.

The

sce

nario

s re

sulte

d fro

m d

iscu

ssio

ns a

nd g

roup

w

ork

durin

g a

scen

ario

-bui

ldin

g w

orks

hop

(20-

21 J

uly

2006

) hos

ted

by H

SE

’s

Hor

izon

Sca

nnin

g te

am a

s pa

rt of

a w

ider

sce

nario

-pla

nnin

g pr

ojec

t. P

artic

ipan

ts

prio

ritis

ed c

hang

e is

sues

and

cre

ated

the

‘sce

nario

cro

ss’ t

o th

e rig

ht th

at

prov

ided

the

logi

cal f

ram

ewor

k fo

r the

four

sce

nario

s. T

he ti

me

horiz

on ta

rget

ed

was

201

7. T

his

scen

ario

, ‘Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n’, i

s dr

iven

by

incr

ease

d pe

rson

al re

spon

sibi

lity

and

incr

ease

d ris

k to

lera

nce

com

bine

d w

ith in

crea

sed

UK

co

mpe

titiv

enes

s in

the

glob

al p

oliti

cal e

cono

my

(illu

stra

ted

low

er ri

ght).

Sce

nario

s ar

e no

t pre

dict

ions

of t

he fu

ture

-th

ey a

re v

ivid

sto

ries

abou

t pos

sibl

e fu

ture

s. T

hey

help

us

expl

ore

the

boun

darie

s of

unc

erta

inty

def

ined

by

spec

ified

dr

iver

s of

cha

nge.

Sce

nario

s w

ritte

n fo

r int

erac

tive

exer

cise

s ar

e ty

pica

lly b

rief,

depi

cted

in p

erso

nal r

athe

r tha

n in

stitu

tiona

l ane

cdot

es, a

nd s

alte

d w

ith h

umou

r (la

ught

er a

ids

impa

ct a

nd m

emor

y).

But

thes

e ar

e be

st b

ased

on

rese

arch

sc

enar

ios:

lon

ger n

arra

tives

, dep

icte

d in

bro

ader

term

s. T

he re

sear

ch

scen

ario

for ‘

The

Dig

ital R

ose

Gar

den’

beg

ins

with

a b

rief o

verv

iew

of

cond

ition

s in

201

7 an

d th

e hi

stor

ical

cha

nges

that

cre

ated

them

. It

then

ex

plor

es h

ow li

fe is

diff

eren

t in

this

futu

re in

gre

ater

det

ail:i

•W

hat c

once

pts,

idea

s an

d pa

radi

gms

defin

e th

e w

orld

aro

und

us?

•H

ow d

o w

e re

late

to e

ach

othe

r – w

hat a

re th

e so

cial

stru

ctur

es a

nd

rela

tions

hips

that

link

peo

ple

and

orga

nisa

tions

? •

How

do

we

conn

ect w

ith e

ach

othe

r --w

hat t

echn

olog

ies

conn

ect

peop

le, p

lace

s an

d th

ings

? •

Wha

t are

the

proc

esse

s an

d te

chno

logi

es th

roug

h w

hich

we

crea

te

good

s an

d se

rvic

es?

•H

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

– h

ow d

o w

e ac

quire

and

use

th

em?

The

scen

ario

fini

shes

by

focu

sing

on

the

chan

ging

wor

kpla

ce, a

nd c

hang

ed

heal

th a

nd s

afet

y is

sues

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

Scen

ario

Cro

ss

Per

sona

l res

pons

ibili

ty, p

ro-a

ctiv

e ad

optio

n of

tech

nolo

gy,

man

agem

ent o

f ris

k, a

bilit

y to

abs

orb

impa

cts

of c

onfli

ct/w

ar a

nd

resi

lienc

e in

the

face

of e

cono

mic

/soc

ial/o

ther

sho

cks

iti ii

li

; di

ll

in

l;

ii

mi

; l

ill-

iia

l i

iti

Incr

ease

d U

K

com

pet

vene

ss,

harm

onsa

ton

of

regu

aton

sffe

rent

y ab

ed

emp

oym

ent

ncor

pora

ton

of

gran

tsen

terp

rise

cutu

re,

expe

ctat

on o

f w

ebe

ng a

nd

soc

cohe

son

Dec

reas

ed U

K

com

pet

vene

ss

Bla

me

cultu

re, r

esis

tanc

e to

new

tech

nolo

gy, r

ejec

tion

of ri

sk,

shat

tere

d by

impa

cts

of c

onfli

ct/w

ar a

nd fr

agili

ty in

the

face

of

econ

omic

/soc

ial/o

ther

sho

cks Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n P

erso

nal r

espo

nsib

ility

, pro

-act

ive

adop

tion

of

tech

nolo

gy, m

anag

emen

t of r

isk,

abi

lity

to a

bsor

b im

pact

s of

con

flict

/war

and

resi

lienc

e in

the

face

of

eco

nom

ic/s

ocia

l/oth

er s

hock

s

Incr

ease

d U

K c

ompe

titiv

enes

s, h

arm

onis

atio

n of

re

gula

tions

; diff

eren

tly a

bled

in e

mpl

oym

ent;

inco

rpor

atio

n of

mig

rant

s; e

nter

pris

e cu

lture

, ex

pect

atio

n of

wel

l-bei

ng a

nd s

ocia

l coh

esio

n

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

48

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

‘The

Dig

ital R

ose

Gar

den’

Ove

rvie

w

As

the

20th

ce

ntur

y en

ded,

an

alys

ts

wro

te

‘202

0’

fore

cast

s, s

cena

rios,

and

vis

ions

– f

or c

ities

, pr

ovin

ces,

an

d co

untri

es;

for

com

pani

es,

agen

cies

, an

d en

tire

sect

ors;

an

d fo

r sp

ecie

s,

ecos

yste

ms,

an

d pl

anet

ary

dyna

mic

s.

From

the

van

tage

of

2017

– w

ithin

hai

ling

dist

ance

of 2

020

–

Brita

in h

as h

arne

ssed

the

cre

ativ

ity o

f its

div

erse

soc

iety

in

ser

vice

to b

oth

the

econ

omy

and

the

envi

ronm

ent.

This

re

new

ed,

cohe

sive

sp

irit

of

inno

vatio

n lo

oks

likel

y to

cr

eate

the

‘R

oarin

g Tw

entie

s’ o

f th

e 21

st

cent

ury.

A

bu

mpe

r cr

op

of

new

bu

sine

sses

ha

s en

ergi

sed

the

natio

nal

econ

omy.

G

radu

ates

in

th

e sc

ienc

es

and

mat

hem

atic

s ar

e pa

rtner

ing

with

the

best

in B

ritis

h de

sign

, ge

nera

ting

econ

omic

va

lue

in

bios

cien

ces,

m

ater

ials

sc

ienc

es, a

nd n

anot

echn

olog

y, a

nd a

ttrac

ting

a br

ain

gain

in

tern

atio

nally

. Ex

pert

yout

h ar

e w

orki

ng w

ith e

xper

ienc

ed

seni

ors

on th

e re

al m

illenn

ium

cha

lleng

es:

glob

al c

limat

e ch

ange

, pov

erty

, and

sus

tain

abilit

y.

Briti

sh

empl

oyee

s ar

e st

ayin

g at

ho

me,

an

d so

ar

e Br

itain

’s b

usin

esse

s.

Offs

horin

g is

dec

linin

g –

as B

RIC

s (B

razi

l, R

ussi

a, In

dia

and

Chi

na) a

nd e

mer

ging

eco

nom

ies

incr

ease

th

eir

wea

lth

and

the

sala

ries

paid

to

th

eir

wor

kers

, th

e co

mpa

rativ

e ad

vant

age

of o

vers

eas

labo

ur

has

decl

ined

. In

crea

sing

inte

rnat

iona

l sta

ndar

disa

tion

of

regu

latio

ns h

as a

lso

rais

ed o

vers

eas

oper

atin

g co

sts,

pa

rticu

larly

in

co

mpa

rison

to

th

e le

aner

, ra

tiona

lised

re

gula

tory

fram

ewor

k in

the

UK.

Peop

le a

re c

hann

ellin

g th

eir

inne

r Ed

mun

d H

illary

– o

r, m

ore

appr

opria

tely

, the

ir in

ner

Kevi

n W

arw

ick

(pio

neer

in

the

hum

an-m

achi

ne in

terfa

ce;

he e

mbe

dded

a m

icro

chip

in

hi

s ar

m).

It’s

the

age

of

cool

ex

plor

ers

and

new

ad

vent

ures

; ris

ks

are

ackn

owle

dged

, w

eigh

ed,

and

man

aged

in

coop

erat

ive

publ

ic-p

rivat

e pa

rtner

ship

s th

at

enab

le a

con

tinuo

us s

tream

of

resp

onsi

ble

inno

vatio

n.

This

hei

ghte

ned

com

fort

with

man

agin

g ris

ks h

eigh

tens

co

mfo

rt w

ith t

rans

form

ativ

e te

chno

logi

es o

n an

indi

vidu

al

leve

l as

wel

l; hi

stor

y m

ay c

ome

to k

now

this

new

‘Roa

ring

Twen

ties’

as

the

‘Tra

nshu

man

ist T

wen

ties’

. Br

itain

’s n

ext

deca

de w

ill tra

nsfo

rm i

ts e

cono

my

and

envi

ronm

ent

for

the

bette

r, bu

t ho

w

will

hist

ory

judg

e th

e in

crea

sing

tra

nsfo

rmat

ion

of h

uman

s th

emse

lves

?

Rec

ent H

isto

ry (2

007

– 20

17)

2007

: At

titud

es to

war

ds r

isk

wer

e in

flux

at t

he b

egin

ning

of

the

21st

ce

ntur

y.

Gen

erat

ion

X a

nd M

illenn

ials

bot

h ex

hibi

ted

a lo

ve o

f ris

k w

ith t

heir

penc

hant

for

‘ex

trem

e’

spor

ts li

ke s

now

boar

ding

, ba

se ju

mpi

ng,

free

runn

ing,

or

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

49

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

zorb

ing.

ii An

em

ergi

ng g

ener

atio

nal v

alue

shi

ft em

brac

ed

the

cons

ciou

s m

anag

emen

t of r

isk

by in

divi

dual

s.

This

was

acc

eler

ated

by

adva

nces

in h

uman

per

form

ance

en

hanc

emen

t and

bio

nic

tech

nolo

gies

. Th

e lin

e be

twee

n re

habi

litat

ive

pros

thet

ics

and

hum

an a

ugm

enta

tion

was

bl

urrin

g, a

s ev

iden

ced

by t

he s

imila

rity

betw

een

Otto

Bo

ck’s

spr

ing-

base

d pr

osth

etic

foot

and

Pow

eris

er s

prin

g st

ilts.

iii If

extre

me

activ

ities

ris

ked

phys

ical

dam

age,

but

th

e re

sulti

ng r

ebui

ld o

f yo

ur b

ody

impr

oved

it b

eyon

d its

‘n

atur

al’ l

evel

s of

abi

lity,

wha

t was

the

dow

nsid

e?

The

dow

nsid

e w

as t

he u

ncer

tain

ty s

urro

undi

ng t

he lo

ng-

term

effe

cts

on i

ndiv

idua

ls o

f su

ch ‘

rebu

ilds’

. Ye

t m

any

pres

sed

ahea

d an

yway

. Thi

s w

as w

idel

y in

terp

rete

d as

a

sign

that

priv

ate

indi

vidu

als

wer

e in

crea

sing

ly p

repa

red

to

man

age

risks

for

th

emse

lves

. Th

is c

ontri

bute

d to

the

gr

owin

g er

osio

n of

the

so-c

alle

d ‘N

anny

Sta

te’ w

orld

view

.

Exci

tem

ent

abou

t th

e st

ill un

tapp

ed p

oten

tial o

f th

e ne

w

biot

echn

olog

ies

and

bios

cien

ces

snap

ped

publ

ic p

atie

nce

with

the

mor

e ag

gres

sive

ele

men

ts o

f th

e an

imal

rig

hts

lobb

y.

Ther

e w

as w

ides

prea

d su

ppor

t fo

r po

licie

s to

pr

eser

ve t

he p

harm

aceu

tical

ind

ustry

and

agg

ress

ivel

y su

ppor

t th

e U

K’s

bios

cien

ces

sect

or,

both

aca

dem

ic a

nd

priv

ate.

2009

: In

spr

ing

of 2

009,

Wes

t Nile

Viru

s cr

osse

d Br

itish

bo

rder

s, w

ith o

ver 3

0 ca

ses

iden

tifie

d w

ithin

a w

eek.

The

ou

tbre

ak

was

sw

iftly

co

ntai

ned,

w

ith

no

fata

litie

s,

high

light

ing

once

m

ore

the

stre

ngth

of

th

e U

K’s

bios

cien

ces

sect

or,

and

the

effe

ctiv

e ‘tr

ipod

’ pa

rtner

ship

st

rate

gy l

inki

ng h

ealth

and

bio

scie

nces

aca

dem

ics,

the

he

alth

indu

stry

, and

the

publ

ic h

ealth

age

ncie

s.

2011

: Th

e si

gnifi

cant

env

ironm

enta

l bre

akth

roug

h of

the

ea

rly 2

1st ce

ntur

y w

as p

oliti

cal r

athe

r th

an s

cien

tific

: Th

e U

SA s

igne

d th

e Ky

oto

acco

rds.

In

itiat

ives

to

addr

ess

glob

al c

limat

e ch

ange

and

its

im

pact

s fin

ally

had

bot

h te

eth

and

reso

urce

s.

Chi

na’s

eco

nom

ic m

omen

tum

suf

fere

d a

hicc

up a

fter

the

Augu

st 2

011

polit

ical

mel

tdow

n in

Bei

jing.

D

evol

utio

n to

gr

eate

r re

gion

al a

uton

omy

slow

ed b

usin

ess

grow

th a

s po

litic

al a

nd e

cono

mic

pow

er s

truct

ures

reco

nfig

ured

.

2013

: A

jo

int

gove

rnm

ent

and

insu

ranc

e co

nsor

tium

an

alys

is o

f ris

k be

havi

our i

ntro

duce

s th

e ‘S

afe

as H

ouse

s’

cam

paig

n.

This

so

ught

to

ed

ucat

e te

chno

logi

cally

en

hanc

ed p

eopl

e ab

out

the

rela

tive

risk

of e

xpec

ting

too

muc

h fro

m

thei

r ‘te

chno

logi

cal

enha

ncem

ent’

whe

n ca

rryi

ng o

ut c

omm

on a

ctiv

ities

: ca

rryin

g sh

oppi

ng,

DIY

an

d le

isur

e pu

rsui

ts s

uch

as jo

ggin

g an

d gy

m.

2015

: W

ith C

hina

bou

ncin

g ba

ck e

cono

mic

ally

fro

m t

he

rest

ruct

urin

g of

20

11,

Chi

nese

po

licy-

mak

ers

and

busi

ness

es

look

ab

road

fo

r as

sist

ance

in

reg

ular

isin

g he

alth

and

saf

ety

stan

dard

s, p

roto

cols

, an

d re

gula

tions

. H

SE w

ins

the

cont

ract

to d

evel

op a

nd la

unch

an

‘HSE

for

Chi

na’ b

y le

vera

ging

its

track

reco

rd a

nd e

xper

tise.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

50

2017

: Th

e U

K’s

glob

al

stre

ngth

in

na

note

chno

logy

re

sear

ch

and

desi

gn

bear

s fru

it as

N

anom

ed

Plc’

s re

sear

ch d

ivis

ion

anno

unce

s st

ill m

ore

brea

kthr

ough

s in

ca

ncer

det

ectio

n an

d pr

even

tion.

In t

he p

ast

deca

de,

pers

onal

aug

men

tatio

n an

d hu

man

pe

rform

ance

enh

ance

men

t ha

ve g

iven

an

entir

ely

new

tw

ist

to ‘

mar

gina

lisat

ion’

and

‘di

ffere

ntly

-abl

ed’.

The

31

Oct

ober

201

7 “1

00%

org

anic

hum

an b

ean”

dem

onst

ratio

n in

Hyd

e Pa

rk w

as o

rgan

ised

by

a ba

ckla

sh m

ovem

ent

cele

brat

ing

the

joys

of s

impl

icity

(rem

aini

ng a

ugm

enta

tion-

free)

, and

has

cre

ated

a p

ublic

deb

ate

on th

e re

spon

sibl

e de

sign

of f

utur

e hu

man

s.

In-D

epth

Exp

lora

tion

Def

ine:

w

hat

conc

epts

, id

eas,

par

adig

ms,

and

val

ues

defin

e th

is w

orld

?

Pund

its h

ave

sugg

este

d th

at e

xper

ts fi

nally

exh

aust

ed th

e pu

blic

’s

abilit

y to

ab

sorb

th

e ‘w

arni

ng

of

the

wee

k’:

“But

ter’s

bad

for

you

-us

e m

arga

rine!

” “T

he tr

ans-

fats

in

mar

garin

e ar

e ba

d fo

r yo

u –

use

oliv

e oi

l!”

Out

of

the

absu

rditi

es

has

emer

ged

the

age

of

the

cons

ider

ed

ratio

nal r

espo

nse:

“C

lean

lines

s m

ay b

e ne

xt to

god

lines

s,

but

we

surv

ived

chi

ldho

od w

ithou

t al

l th

ose

antib

acte

rial

clea

nser

s; a

ll th

ings

in m

oder

atio

n”.

Kids

are

allo

wed

to

fall

out

of t

rees

; th

e oc

casi

onal

scu

ff or

bru

ise

is p

art

of

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

grow

ing

up.iv

Th

e pu

blic

de

man

ds

trans

pare

ncy

of

info

rmat

ion,

but

reje

cts

alar

mis

m.

As a

res

ult,

open

deb

ate

and

enga

gem

ent

abou

t ne

w

tech

nolo

gies

an

d em

ergi

ng

heal

th

and

safe

ty

issu

es

char

acte

rise

polic

y fo

rmul

atio

n. T

he c

orol

lary

in th

e pr

ivat

e sp

here

is a

hei

ghte

ned

ackn

owle

dgem

ent o

f per

sona

l and

or

gani

satio

nal

resp

onsi

bilit

y an

d ac

coun

tabi

lity.

An

ex

plic

itly

stat

ed m

oral

res

pons

e to

dec

isio

n-ta

king

and

im

pact

ass

essm

ent i

s no

w h

ighl

y va

lued

in b

rand

stra

tegy

. Fa

ir tra

de,

sust

aina

bilit

y,

and

corp

orat

e so

cial

re

spon

sibi

lity

are

esse

ntia

l el

emen

ts

of

succ

ess

in

busi

ness

. Bo

th th

e pu

blic

and

priv

ate

sect

ors

see

wor

king

in

pa

rtner

ship

as

ke

y to

ac

hiev

ing

trans

pare

nt

acco

unta

bilit

y. T

his

incr

ease

d pu

blic

and

priv

ate

sect

or

trans

pare

ncy

has

wid

ened

the

poo

l of

ear

ly a

dopt

ers.

Pe

ople

ar

e no

w

mor

e lik

ely

to

embr

ace

inno

vatio

ns

perc

eive

d as

ben

efic

ial,

such

as

expe

rt-sy

stem

-bas

ed a

nd

robo

tic h

ealth

care

, ge

ne t

hera

py,

and

even

hea

lth a

nd

safe

ty p

rodu

cts

aris

ing

from

nan

otec

hnol

ogy.

The

glob

al s

cien

tific

and

pol

icy

cons

ensu

s th

at c

limat

e ch

ange

is u

pon

us d

emon

stra

tes

inte

rnat

iona

l con

fiden

ce

in c

limat

e m

odel

s.

Mor

e ge

nera

lly,

it de

mon

stra

tes

how

de

eply

roo

ted

the

syst

ems

pers

pect

ive

has

beco

me

in

scie

nce,

pol

icy,

and

bus

ines

s.

Mor

e an

d m

ore

insi

ghts

an

d in

nova

tions

em

erge

fro

m c

once

pts

base

d on

cha

otic

sy

stem

beh

avio

ur o

r in

tellig

ent a

gent

s an

d se

lf-or

gani

sing

co

mpl

ex a

dapt

ive

syst

ems.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

51

Rel

ate:

how

do

peop

le re

late

to e

ach

othe

r – w

hat a

re th

e so

cial

stru

ctur

es a

nd r

elat

ions

hips

tha

t lin

k pe

ople

and

or

gani

satio

ns?

Peop

le a

re m

ore

polit

ical

ly e

ngag

ed. T

he g

over

nmen

t is

cu

rren

tly r

eapi

ng t

he b

enef

its o

f in

crea

sed

publ

ic r

espe

ct

for

inst

itutio

ns,

spec

ifica

lly l

ever

agin

g th

e po

wer

of

self-

orga

nisi

ng g

roup

s to

add

ress

com

plex

cha

lleng

es.

A

deca

de o

f so

cial

net

wor

king

am

plifi

ed b

y w

eb r

esou

rces

lik

e Li

nked

In,

MyS

pace

, an

d Li

veJo

urna

l cr

eate

d a

com

plex

web

of p

erso

nal i

nter

conn

ectio

ns a

cros

s di

vers

e po

pula

tions

. Th

e in

clus

iven

ess

of o

nlin

e co

mm

uniti

es

with

reg

ard

to p

revi

ousl

y m

argi

nalis

ed g

roup

s lik

e th

e el

derly

, th

e di

ffere

ntly

abl

ed,

and

ethn

ic c

omm

uniti

es i

s re

flect

ed in

real

life

by

incr

ease

d so

cial

coh

esio

n.

Con

sequ

ently

, tod

ay’s

pol

icy

aren

a se

es fa

r fe

wer

sin

gle-

issu

e ca

mpa

igns

. In

add

ition

, th

e co

nsen

sus

on c

limat

e ch

ange

pr

oved

a

unify

ing

chal

leng

e th

at

cata

lyse

d in

crea

sing

pub

lic s

uppo

rt of

sus

tain

abilit

y. T

he r

esul

ting

‘War

on

C

arbo

n’

help

s fo

cus

polic

y pr

iorit

ies

amon

g po

litic

ians

, civ

il se

rvan

ts, a

nd c

onst

ituen

ts.

Glo

bal

rela

tions

hips

hav

e ac

hiev

ed a

new

bal

ance

, as

ec

onom

ies

outs

ide

the

Wes

t gr

ow

and

stre

ngth

en,

parti

cula

rly

thos

e of

Br

azil,

R

ussi

a,

Indi

a,

and

Chi

na

(BR

IC).

Fina

ncia

l and

lega

l ser

vice

s ar

e m

ore

glob

al a

nd

mor

e lib

eral

ised

(W

TO),

and

are

a su

bsta

ntia

l sh

are

of

glob

al G

DP.

Thi

s co

nver

genc

e of

eco

nom

ies

wor

ldw

ide

is

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

vast

ly e

xpan

ding

the

glo

bal m

iddl

e cl

ass,

mea

ning

mor

e po

tent

ial c

onsu

mer

s, a

nd m

ore

pote

ntia

l tou

rists

. C

lose

r to

hom

e, B

ritai

n’s

links

with

in th

e EU

hav

e st

reng

then

ed.

Briti

sh s

ocie

ty h

as r

educ

ed t

he h

ave-

have

not

gap

, bu

t no

t er

adic

ated

it

entir

ely.

Th

e w

ealth

div

ide

still

follo

ws

the

educ

atio

n di

vide

, al

thou

gh w

ith in

crea

sing

pro

sper

ity

mor

e pu

blic

res

ourc

es a

re b

eing

inve

sted

in e

duca

tion

to

addr

ess

that

issu

e.

The

gene

ratio

n ga

p is

bei

ng r

apid

ly

eras

ed

by

the

trend

in

‘v

igor

ous

agei

ng’;

mor

e so

phis

ticat

ed h

ealth

care

, a

grea

ter

unde

rsta

ndin

g of

the

ag

eing

pro

cess

, an

d hu

man

per

form

ance

enh

ance

men

t ha

ve s

wel

led

the

over

-65

wor

kfor

ce.

This

als

o m

eans

the

aver

age

disp

osab

le i

ncom

e fo

r ov

er-6

5s h

as i

ncre

ased

co

nsid

erab

ly.

In

addi

tion,

ad

vanc

ed

gero

ntol

ogy

and

assi

stiv

e te

chno

logi

es e

nabl

e gr

eate

r in

depe

nden

ce e

ven

for

fraile

r se

nior

s.

Hom

e he

alth

sys

tem

s in

terc

onne

cted

with

loca

l cl

inic

s an

d ho

spita

ls a

llow

OAP

s to

rem

ain

hom

e lo

nger

, an

d m

ake

it ea

sier

for

chi

ldre

n to

car

e fo

r th

eir

pare

nts

them

selv

es.

Rea

l est

ate

agen

ts r

epor

t a b

oom

in g

rann

y fla

ts a

nd d

emog

raph

ers

conc

ur t

hat

the

num

ber

of m

ulti-

gene

ratio

nal

hom

es i

s in

crea

sing

. Th

e ge

nera

tions

are

cl

oser

kni

t w

ithin

fam

ilies

, an

d th

e fa

milie

s ar

e m

ore

clos

ely

tied

to t

heir

inte

rest

gro

ups

and

soci

al n

etw

orks

, cr

eatin

g en

tirel

y ne

w fo

rms

of e

xten

ded

fam

ilies.

Our

re

latio

nshi

p w

ith

the

envi

ronm

ent

has

chan

ged.

G

loba

l cl

imat

e ch

ange

is

now

a g

iven

, w

hich

thr

ows

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

52

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

issu

es o

f sus

tain

abilit

y in

to s

tark

relie

f. Sc

hool

child

ren

are

taug

ht to

con

side

r th

e im

pact

of l

ifest

yle

choi

ces

on t

heir

ecol

ogic

al

foot

prin

t. Th

e go

vern

men

t is

di

scus

sing

re

stric

ting

carb

on u

se b

y in

stitu

ting

carb

on r

atio

n ca

rds

and

carb

on lo

tterie

s fo

r bot

h in

divi

dual

s an

d or

gani

satio

ns.

The

upsi

de i

s an

enh

ance

d se

nse

of c

onne

ctio

n to

the

na

tiona

l la

ndsc

ape

and

the

glob

al b

iosp

here

. Br

itain

is

grow

ing

perc

eptib

ly

war

mer

an

d w

ette

r, an

d se

asid

e to

wns

– l

ike

Sout

hpor

t –

are

incr

easi

ngly

und

er f

lood

th

reat

.

Con

nect

: ho

w d

o w

e co

nnec

t w

ith e

ach

othe

r --

wha

t te

chno

logi

es c

onne

ct p

eopl

e, p

lace

s, a

nd th

ings

?

This

may

be

the

first

gen

erat

ion

that

fin

ds t

hem

selv

es

thin

king

, “G

rand

ma

wou

ld c

all

my

kids

cyb

orgs

.” Ke

vin

War

wic

kv of

Rea

ding

Uni

vers

ity w

as t

he f

irst

pers

on t

o em

bed

a m

icro

chip

into

his

ner

vous

sys

tem

– a

lthou

gh h

e di

dn’t

orig

inat

e th

e id

ea –

and

onc

e w

e’d

chip

ped

jew

elle

ry

and

clot

hes,

ski

n w

as th

e ne

xt o

bvio

us la

yer.

In t

he f

irst

year

s of

the

21st

ce

ntur

y, s

oftw

are

mas

hups

cr

eate

d ne

w p

rodu

cts

by l

ayer

ing

and

inte

rcon

nect

ing

exis

ting

softw

are

and

data

base

s in

new

way

s.vi

Th

is w

as

para

llele

d by

har

dwar

e m

ashu

ps -

the

seam

less

web

of

com

putin

g, c

omm

unic

atio

ns,

med

ia,

and

gam

ing

devi

ces

that

wer

e em

bedd

ed i

n ca

rs,

clot

hes,

jew

elle

ry,

cont

act

lens

es, a

nd fi

nally

, our

selv

es.

Indi

vidu

als

can

wal

k do

wn

the

Hig

h St

reet

in

re

al

life

and

in

virtu

al

life

sim

ulta

neou

sly,

sw

itchi

ng b

etw

een

thei

r ph

ysic

al s

elve

s an

d th

eir

vario

us a

vata

rs fr

om o

ne c

onve

rsat

ion

and

one

data

stre

am to

the

next

.

Seco

nd L

ifevi

i ce

ased

to

be m

erel

y a

soci

al a

nd g

ames

en

viro

nmen

t on

5 A

pril

2010

, w

hen

the

seve

ral F

ar E

ast

natio

ns o

pene

d di

gita

l em

bass

ies

ther

e.vi

ii O

ffice

s an

d re

al-w

orld

in

com

e-ge

nera

ting

busi

ness

es

had

been

th

rivin

g fo

r ye

ars

prio

r to

that

. Th

e bl

urrin

g of

bou

ndar

ies

betw

een

the

real

and

dig

ital

wor

lds

has

impl

oded

the

bo

unda

ries

betw

een

polit

ics,

wor

k, fa

mily

life

, lei

sure

, art,

an

d sp

iritu

ality

. Th

is g

ener

atio

n of

dig

ital n

eo-r

oman

tics

sees

no

dist

inct

ion

betw

een

life

and

art.

Cre

ate:

wha

t are

the

proc

esse

s an

d te

chno

logi

es th

roug

h w

hich

we

crea

te g

oods

and

ser

vice

s?

The

new

pro

cess

es o

f de

sign

and

pro

duct

ion

are

base

d on

the

con

verg

ence

of

the

bios

cien

ces

and

the

mat

eria

l sc

ienc

es,

and

on

the

conn

ectio

n be

twee

n ge

netic

en

gine

erin

g an

d na

note

chno

logy

. ‘B

iom

imic

ry’,

popu

laris

ed b

y Ja

nine

Ben

yus’

boo

k of

the

sam

e na

me,

is

a st

aple

of

indu

stria

l des

ign,

dra

win

g in

spira

tion

for

new

pr

oduc

ts a

nd e

ven

serv

ices

fro

m n

atur

e.ix

Th

e U

K’s

inte

llect

ual

reso

urce

s in

bio

scie

nces

, m

ater

ial

scie

nces

, na

note

ch,

and

desi

gn

have

gi

ven

UK

co

mpa

nies

a

deci

sive

edg

e in

this

sec

tor.

The

‘bio

nano

boo

m’ r

ecal

ls

the

dotc

om

boom

of

th

e la

te

90’s

; in

vent

ors

and

entre

pren

eurs

ar

e cr

eatin

g bi

osci

ence

s an

d m

ater

ials

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

53

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

scie

nces

sta

rt-up

s w

ith a

n en

d-go

al o

f buy

-out

by

a la

rger

co

mpa

ny.

Larg

e co

mpa

nies

are

in

turn

cre

atin

g m

ore

skun

kwor

ks; a

ctin

g as

ang

els

to s

mal

l ent

repr

eneu

rs; a

nd

partn

erin

g w

ith u

nive

rsiti

es.

Get

ting

cust

omer

s in

volv

ed

via

‘pee

r pro

duct

ion’

stra

tegi

es tu

rbo-

char

ges

crea

tivity

by

x la

yerin

g m

ultip

le

pers

pect

ives

.Al

l th

ese

stra

tegi

es

enliv

en t

he U

K’s

ente

rpris

e cu

lture

and

mak

e Br

itain

the

w

orkp

lace

of c

hoic

e fo

r glo

bal ‘

know

ledg

e no

mad

s’.xi

At t

he s

ame

time,

acc

ount

abilit

y an

d co

rpor

ate

soci

al

resp

onsi

bilit

y ar

e cr

itica

l in

attr

actin

g cu

stom

ers.

H

ow

som

ethi

ng

is

crea

ted,

its

ec

olog

ical

fo

otpr

int,

and

its

‘cra

dle-

to-c

radl

e’

lifep

lan,

ar

e m

ajor

se

lling

poin

ts.

Cus

tom

ers

cons

ider

th

e qu

ality

of

th

e pr

oces

s as

im

porta

nt a

s th

e qu

ality

of

the

final

pro

duct

or

serv

ice.

Th

e us

e of

RFI

D c

hips

on

all c

onsu

mab

les

enab

les

auto

-re

cycl

ing

and

mor

e ef

ficie

nt r

e-us

e, a

s w

ell

as e

ffici

ent

track

ing

for

pollu

tion

and

was

te-m

onito

ring

purp

oses

. As

a

bonu

s it

incr

ease

s se

curit

y fo

r cu

stom

ers

sinc

e ow

ners

hip

data

is e

asy

to a

dd p

ost-p

urch

ase.

Man

ufac

turin

g in

Brit

ain

has

stab

ilised

afte

r the

rock

y ro

ad

to

enha

ncin

g its

pr

oces

ses

for

sust

aina

bilit

y an

d re

-po

sitio

ning

to

ca

ptur

e th

e le

ad

in t

he b

iona

no/d

esig

n m

arke

ts.

With

the

loo

min

g th

reat

of

carb

on r

atio

ning

, co

mpa

nies

kee

p an

eye

on

trans

port

mile

s as

soci

ated

w

ith t

heir

prod

ucts

. Th

is h

as r

educ

ed o

ffsho

ring

and

enco

urag

ed l

ocal

man

ufac

turin

g an

d de

liver

y of

goo

ds.

As a

res

ult,

UK

agr

icul

ture

is e

xper

ienc

ing

som

ethi

ng o

f a

rena

issa

nce.

Con

sum

e: h

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

–

how

do

we

acqu

ire a

nd u

se th

em?

Envi

ronm

enta

l val

ues

have

put

pai

d to

‘sho

p ‘ti

ll yo

u dr

op’;

inst

ead

we

have

a g

ener

atio

n of

‘m

od y

our

bod’

cyb

er-

triba

ls.

They

gre

w u

p th

inki

ng ta

ttoos

and

pie

rcin

gs w

ere

chic

. Th

e fa

ct th

at th

e ta

ttoos

now

con

tain

dig

ital i

nk, a

nd

the

nave

l rin

gs s

port

wifi

RFI

D c

hips

, is

sim

ply

a bo

nus.

Th

e ne

wes

t ge

nera

tion

is

extre

mel

y co

mfo

rtabl

e w

ith

augm

enta

tion,

whe

ther

cog

nitiv

e au

gmen

tatio

n vi

a sm

art

softw

are,

met

abol

ic a

nd s

ynap

tic a

ugm

enta

tion

via

HPE

dr

ugs,

or

ph

ysic

al

augm

enta

tion

via

embe

dded

m

icro

proc

esso

rs a

nd b

ioni

cs.

And

it’s

not j

ust t

he y

oung

-m

ore

seni

ors

are

augm

entin

g as

wel

l. Bi

onic

s –

tech

nolo

gica

l aug

men

tatio

n –

redu

ce

phys

ical

fra

ilty,

or

the

perc

eptio

n of

per

sona

l ph

ysic

al

frailt

y.

Sim

ilarly

, au

gmen

ted

cogn

ition

via

sof

twar

e or

H

PE d

rugs

red

uces

men

tal f

railt

y.

Both

ena

ble

exte

nded

in

depe

nden

ce.

One

w

ag

refe

rred

to

th

e gr

owin

g co

mm

unity

of

augm

ente

d O

APs

as ‘

high

-tech

wrin

klie

s’.

Whi

le h

umor

ists

joke

abo

ut w

ind-

pow

ered

zim

mer

fram

es,

pros

thet

ic m

anuf

actu

rers

hav

e be

gun

to m

arke

t hyd

roge

n-fu

el-c

ell-p

ower

ed

exos

kele

tons

in

stea

d.

They

as

sist

m

ovem

ent

in a

wid

er r

ange

of

circ

umst

ance

s th

an,

say,

Se

gway

s –

whi

ch h

ave

also

bec

ome

popu

lar

with

the

se

nior

set

now

that

the

pric

e ha

s dr

oppe

d.

Con

sum

ers

have

do

wns

hifte

d.

Hyp

erco

nsum

ptio

n of

go

ods

is n

o lo

nger

pop

ular

; it i

s ne

arly

con

side

red

a vi

ce.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

54

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

Wha

t pe

ople

do

cons

ume

avid

ly i

s ex

perie

nce,

whe

ther

ac

tual

or

virtu

al;

thei

r ow

n or

oth

er

peop

le’s

; as

liv

e ev

ents

, in

tera

ctiv

e ga

mes

, or

as

ex

pres

sed

in

blog

s,

podc

asts

, or

oth

er m

edia

. Ex

perie

nce

addi

cts

and

the

adre

nalin

ju

nkie

s ar

e co

nsta

ntly

lo

okin

g fo

r ne

w

com

bina

tions

of

ex

trem

e sp

orts

or

ga

mes

, an

d en

terta

inin

g co

mbi

natio

ns o

f sp

orts

and

pee

r-pr

oduc

ed

ente

rtain

men

t. R

isks

are

mad

e ex

plic

it, a

nd re

lativ

e co

sts

for

vary

ing

risks

are

a t

rans

pare

nt c

hoic

e:

“Jam

es g

ot

quot

es t

o re

pair

his

gutte

r: £5

00 w

ith s

caffo

ldin

g, £

50 if

he

hol

ds th

e la

dder

for

the

wor

kman

and

gam

bles

on

the

liabi

lity.

”

Low

erin

g yo

ur e

colo

gica

l foo

tprin

t is

the

new

way

to

get

ahea

d of

the

Jon

eses

. Th

e ef

fect

on

the

UK

lei

sure

in

dust

ry h

as b

een

skyr

ocke

ting

inte

rest

in

the

‘Dev

on

Riv

iera

’ as

wel

l as

red

isco

very

of

othe

r je

wel

s of

the

Br

itish

nat

ural

env

ironm

ent.xi

i

Focu

s on

the

Cha

ngin

g W

orkp

lace

Wor

kers

no

long

er f

ace

a si

mpl

e bl

urrin

g be

twee

n th

e w

orkp

lace

and

the

hom

e.

Wre

stlin

g w

ith t

he c

halle

nges

th

at t

hat

pres

ents

to

your

wor

k/lif

e ba

lanc

e is

rel

ativ

ely

stra

ight

forw

ard.

In

stea

d, t

he i

mm

ersi

ve c

ompu

ting

and

med

ia m

esh

thro

ugh

whi

ch e

very

one

now

mov

es h

as

crea

ted

a bl

urrin

g be

twee

n th

e w

orkp

lace

and

eve

ryw

here

–

and

ever

ythi

ng –

els

e. M

obile

pho

nes

are

embe

dded

in

sung

lass

es,

so v

ideo

conf

eren

ces

can

find

you

in D

evon

.

Wor

se,

an a

ge o

f ‘p

eer

prod

uctio

n’ m

eans

peo

ple

wor

k ev

en a

s co

nsum

ers.

The

emph

asis

on

lo

cal

man

ufac

turin

g an

d sh

ort-h

aul

deliv

ery

drov

e m

ost

com

pani

es

to

dece

ntra

lise

thei

r of

fices

. Sm

art

softw

are

puts

res

ourc

es w

here

the

y ar

e ne

eded

with

min

imal

mile

s tra

velle

d.

The

sam

e so

ftwar

e he

lps

empl

oyee

s co

oper

ate

to

redu

ce

reso

urce

co

nsum

ptio

n in

bot

h w

ork

and

leis

ure.

W

hile

offi

ces

are

smal

ler

and

loca

l, th

ey a

re c

onsi

sten

t in

the

ir de

sign

, am

eniti

es,

and

oper

atio

ns,

enab

ling

cons

iste

nt r

egul

ator

y co

mpl

ianc

e ac

ross

a c

ompa

ny’s

est

ablis

hmen

ts.xi

ii

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y Is

sues

Peop

le th

ink

diffe

rent

ly a

bout

risk

and

saf

ety

now

, in

wha

t an

alys

ts c

all

“a r

etur

n to

a m

ore

ratio

nal

view

. ” It

is a

w

orld

aw

ay fr

om t

he le

gal m

icro

man

agem

ent o

f per

sona

l ris

k th

at

so

char

acte

rised

co

ncer

ns

abou

t th

e ‘c

ompe

nsat

ion

cultu

re’ a

doz

en y

ears

bef

ore.

Mor

e fu

nds

and

time

are

now

inve

sted

in in

form

ing

the

publ

ic a

bout

th

e po

tent

ial

risks

, co

sts,

an

d be

nefit

s of

ne

w

tech

nolo

gies

, pro

duct

s an

d se

rvic

es.

The

effo

rts o

f pub

lic

agen

cies

and

oth

ers

over

the

pas

t de

cade

on

man

agin

g ris

k ha

ve p

aid

off.

Of c

ours

e, w

ith te

chno

logy

dev

elop

ing

at it

s cu

rren

t pac

e th

is p

ublic

vie

w c

an’t

be a

ssum

ed to

be

fore

ver

last

ing.

It

coul

d in

tim

e sw

ing

back

to th

e ba

d ol

d da

ys.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

55

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

A s

impl

ified

reg

ulat

ory

stru

ctur

e re

quire

s gr

eate

r pe

rson

al

judg

emen

t. R

elyi

ng o

n in

form

ed c

hoic

e to

nav

igat

e he

alth

an

d sa

fety

ris

ks r

equi

res

mor

e tra

nspa

rent

info

rmat

ion

of

regu

lato

ry s

truct

ures

as

wel

l as

ris

ks.

Stre

amlin

ing

the

heal

th a

nd s

afet

y re

gula

tory

stru

ctur

e op

ened

spa

ce f

or

mor

e fle

xibl

e re

spon

ses

to h

ealth

and

saf

ety

issu

es a

nd

mad

e it

easi

er t

o ac

hiev

e co

nsis

tenc

y w

ith i

nter

natio

nal

heal

th a

nd s

afet

y re

gula

tions

bey

ond

the

EU.

As a

resu

lt,

over

seas

con

tract

pos

sibi

litie

s ha

ve b

loss

omed

for

the

H

SE a

s an

exp

ert r

esou

rce.

The

last

ten

year

s ha

ve s

ee a

pro

lifer

atio

n of

hea

lth a

nd

safe

ty c

onsu

ltant

s w

ith e

xper

tise

in d

iffer

ent

sect

ors

-ha

rdly

su

rpris

ing,

gi

ven

wha

t se

ems

like

the

alm

ost

wee

kly

emer

genc

e of

new

are

as o

f pr

oduc

tion.

It’s

a

scie

ntifi

c an

d te

chno

logi

cal

conv

eyor

bel

t of

inn

ovat

ion

and

the

chal

leng

e no

w is

for

publ

ic a

genc

ies,

con

sulta

nts

and

othe

rs to

agr

ee w

hat t

he ri

sks

actu

ally

are

, how

thes

e ris

ks s

houl

d be

man

aged

and

fin

ally

, ho

w t

he r

esul

tant

m

essa

ges

shou

ld b

e co

mm

unic

ated

. To

com

poun

d th

e pr

oble

m,

the

varie

ty o

f so

ftwar

e an

d ha

rdw

are

syst

ems

now

m

arke

ted

to

assi

st

both

bu

sine

sses

an

d pr

ivat

e in

divi

dual

s in

man

agin

g he

alth

and

saf

ety

seem

s to

be

grow

ing

expo

nent

ially

. If

hist

oric

al b

usin

ess

patte

rns

hold

, ho

wev

er, t

he 2

020s

sho

uld

see

a co

nsol

idat

ion

of s

mal

ler

H&S

har

dwar

e an

d so

ftwar

e fir

ms

and

a ra

tiona

lisat

ion

of

that

mar

ket.

Win

ners

and

Los

ers

Win

ners

abo

und

– or

so

it w

ould

see

m.

New

life

styl

e pr

oduc

ts a

nd s

ervi

ces

have

rev

olut

ioni

sed

leis

ure

furth

er

from

eve

n th

e he

ady

days

of 2

007

and

Play

Stat

ion

3, a

nd

huge

ste

ps f

orw

ard

in h

ealth

bio

scie

nces

har

dwar

e an

d so

ftwar

e ha

ve m

ade

heal

thy,

act

ive

agei

ng th

e no

rm.

Empl

oym

ent i

s at

an

all-t

ime

high

, esp

ecia

lly e

mpl

oym

ent

of p

revi

ousl

y m

argi

nalis

ed w

orke

rs li

ke th

e el

derly

and

the

diffe

rent

ly a

bled

. M

ore

econ

omic

cen

tres

exis

t, an

d th

ey

are

mor

e w

idel

y di

strib

uted

thr

ough

out

the

coun

try.

The

envi

ronm

ent

itsel

f is

bo

th

bene

fitin

g fro

m

incr

ease

d ac

coun

tabi

lity,

and

ret

urni

ng t

hose

ben

efits

; w

ith t

he

incr

ease

in ‘l

ow-c

arbo

n-co

st a

t-hom

e ho

liday

s’, P

rest

on b

y th

e Se

a an

d th

e ‘D

evon

R

ivie

ra’

exem

plify

th

e re

vita

lisat

ion

of th

e Br

itish

sea

side

tow

n –

even

whi

le th

e ris

k ris

es o

f cl

imat

e-ch

ange

-inte

nsifi

ed s

torm

s an

d st

orm

su

rge.

The

lose

rs a

re in

sura

nce

com

pani

es w

ho s

ee c

usto

mer

s op

ting

for l

ower

leve

ls o

f cov

erag

e. T

he in

crea

sed

unde

rsta

ndin

g of

rela

tive

risk

mak

es p

eopl

e le

ss li

tigio

us.

With

mor

e fo

od g

row

n at

hom

e an

d a

grea

ter e

mph

asis

on

‘buy

ing

Briti

sh’ t

o co

nser

ve tr

ansp

ort f

uel u

se a

nd it

s ca

rbon

cos

t, im

port/

expo

rt co

mpa

nies

are

als

o un

der

pres

sure

. Th

e le

ss w

ell e

duca

ted

also

lose

, as

they

are

le

ss a

ble

to n

avig

ate

the

land

scap

e of

info

rmed

cho

ice.

Im

mig

rant

s su

ffer a

sim

ilar p

robl

em fo

r a d

iffer

ent r

easo

n;

diffe

rent

cul

tura

l filt

ers

may

mak

e it

diffi

cult

for t

hem

to

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

56

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

asse

ss ri

sks

adeq

uate

ly in

the

Briti

sh e

nviro

nmen

t. of

tran

shum

anis

m a

nd w

ant t

o re

ject

it m

ay w

ell f

ind

Fina

lly, p

eopl

e w

ho a

re u

nner

ved

by th

e em

ergi

ng fu

ture

th

emse

lves

mar

gina

lised

.

Ref

eren

ces

and

Res

ourc

es:

Fore

sigh

t and

sce

nario

s re

sour

ces

whi

ch o

ffer c

onfir

min

g ev

iden

ce a

nd in

sigh

ts fo

r the

HSE

sce

nario

s:

•ES

RC

Soc

iety

Tod

ay, “

Cha

ngin

g O

ur B

ehav

iour

, Not

the

Clim

ate”

ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.e

src.

ac.u

k/E

SRC

Info

Cen

tre/a

bout

/CI/C

P/O

ur_S

ocie

ty_T

oday

/Spo

tligh

ts_2

006/

chan

ge1.

aspx

?Com

pone

ntId

=157

78&

Sour

cePa

geId

=157

97

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. •

Inst

itute

of t

he F

utur

e M

ap o

f the

Dec

ade

(200

3, 2

004,

200

5), a

vaila

ble

at:

o

2003

--ht

tp://

ww

w.if

tf.or

g/do

cs/S

R-7

97_M

ap_o

f_de

cade

.pdf

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. o

20

04 --

http

://w

ww

.iftf.

org/

docs

/SR

-844

_200

4_M

ap_o

f_th

e_D

ecad

e.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

. o

20

05 --

http

://w

ww

.iftf.

org/

docs

/SR

-910

_200

5_M

OTD

.pdf

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. •

Offi

ce o

f Sci

ence

and

Tec

hnol

ogy,

“For

esig

ht:

Dru

gs F

utur

es 2

025?

The

Sce

nario

s, ” a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.fore

sigh

t.gov

.uk/

Brai

n_Sc

ienc

e_A

ddic

tion_

and_

Dru

gs/R

epor

ts_a

nd_P

ublic

atio

ns/D

rugs

Futu

res2

025/

DTI

-Sce

nario

s.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

. •

Ora

nge

Futu

re E

nter

pris

e C

oalit

ion,

“Sce

nario

s of

Wor

k an

d Te

chno

logy

in 2

016,

” ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.o

rang

ecoa

litio

n.co

m/a

pp/w

ebro

ot/fi

les/

whi

tepa

pers

/Ora

nge_

scen

ario

s_of

_wor

k_an

d_te

chno

logy

_201

6.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber

2006

). •

Taki

ng S

tock

, “Fu

ture

s Sc

enar

ios”

ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.ta

king

stoc

k.or

g/Fu

ture

s.as

p (a

cces

sed

15 S

epte

mbe

r 200

6).

•Th

e W

orkp

lace

Inte

lligen

ce U

nit /

DTI

, “Th

e Fu

ture

of W

ork”

sce

nario

s, a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.wor

kpla

cein

telli

genc

e.co

.uk/

uplo

ads/

files

/dti_

futu

re_o

f_w

ork.

pdf (

acce

ssed

15

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

i This

org

anis

atio

nal s

chem

e is

ada

pted

from

Glo

bal F

ores

ight

Ass

ocia

tes’

“Eth

noFu

ture

s Sc

anni

ng F

ram

ewor

k, ” d

evis

ed b

y M

iche

lle B

owm

an a

nd K

aipo

Lu

m.

Mic

helle

Bow

man

and

Wen

dy S

chul

tz, “

Best

Pra

ctic

es in

Env

ironm

enta

l Sca

nnin

g: T

he W

orld

Bey

ond

Stee

p, ” p

rese

ntat

ion

at th

e W

orld

Fut

ure

Soci

ety,

Chi

cago

, 30

July

200

5.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: Th

e D

igita

l Ros

e G

arde

n

57

ii S

now

boar

ding

and

bas

e ju

mpi

ng h

ave

beco

me

fam

iliar

; fre

e ru

nnin

g an

d its

pre

dece

ssor

, par

kour

, are

rela

ted

activ

ities

mix

ing

runn

ing

and

acro

batic

s as

a

mea

ns to

trav

erse

an

urba

n la

ndsc

ape;

zor

bing

invo

lves

rollin

g do

wn

land

scap

es e

ncas

ed in

a la

rge

plas

tic b

all (

thin

k hu

man

-siz

ed g

erbi

l pla

ybal

l).

Info

rmat

ion

and

links

on

all t

hree

are

ava

ilabl

e at

Wik

iped

ia; s

ee:

•Pa

rkou

r: ht

tp://

en.w

ikip

edia

.org

/wik

i/Par

kour

(acc

esse

d 22

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

; •

Free

runn

ing:

http

://en

.wik

iped

ia.o

rg/w

iki/F

ree_

runn

ing

(acc

esse

d 22

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

--se

e al

so C

hann

el F

our’s

“Jum

p Lo

ndon

” pag

e at

:ht

tp://

ww

w.c

hann

el4.

com

/ent

erta

inm

ent/t

v/m

icro

site

s/J/

jum

p_lo

ndon

/ (ac

cess

ed 2

2 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

.•

Zorb

ing:

http

://en

.wik

iped

ia.o

rg/w

iki/Z

orbi

ng (a

cces

sed

22 S

epte

mbe

r 200

6).

iii In

form

atio

n on

inno

vativ

e pr

osth

etic

feet

is a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.spe

ctru

m.ie

ee.o

rg/p

rint/2

189

(acc

esse

d 22

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

; inf

orm

atio

n on

Po

wer

iser

s is

ava

ilabl

e at

: http

://en

g.po

wer

iser

.co.

kr/c

ompa

ny/p

refa

ce.h

tml (

acce

ssed

22

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

iv Fo

r exa

mpl

e, s

ee th

e st

eadi

ly ri

sing

pop

ular

ity o

f Wen

dy M

ogel

’s b

ook,

The

Ble

ssin

gs o

f a S

kinn

ed K

nee:

Usi

ng J

ewis

h Te

achi

ngs

to R

aise

Sel

f-Rel

iant

C

hild

ren

(Pen

guin

, 30

Oct

ober

200

1).

Rel

ated

arti

cle

in th

e N

ew Y

ork

Tim

es, S

unda

y 1

Oct

ober

200

6, a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.nyt

imes

.com

/200

6/10

/01/

mag

azin

e/01

pare

ntin

g.ht

ml?

th=&

adxn

nl=1

&em

c=th

&adx

nnlx

=115

9697

045-

+uX

joT2

mm

l//fq

Iz0V

z6zQ

(acc

esse

d 1

Oct

ober

200

6).

v S

ee in

form

atio

n av

aila

ble

at: h

ttp://

ww

w.k

evin

war

wic

k.or

g/ (a

cces

sed

22 S

epte

mbe

r 200

6).

vi Zi

llow

is o

ne e

xam

ple,

com

bini

ng G

oogl

e Ea

rth w

ith lo

cal r

eal e

stat

e ta

x ap

prai

sal d

atab

ases

to c

reat

e an

inte

ract

ive,

onl

ine

map

ping

of n

eigh

borh

ood

hous

e va

lues

as

an a

id to

sel

lers

del

iber

atin

g on

feas

ible

hou

se p

rices

. Zi

llow

can

be

expe

rienc

ed a

t: ht

tp://

ww

w.z

illow

.com

/ (ac

cess

ed 2

2 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

. vi

i See

the

Busi

ness

Wee

k ar

ticle

on

Seco

nd L

ife, a

nd re

late

d m

ater

ial,

here

: http

://w

ww

.bus

ines

swee

k.co

m/m

agaz

ine/

cont

ent/0

6_18

/b39

8200

1.ht

m

(acc

esse

d 22

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. vi

ii Fo

uts,

Jos

hua

S. “

Publ

ic D

iplo

mac

y an

d N

atio

nal I

mag

es:

Theo

ry a

nd P

ract

ice,

” in

Publ

ic D

iplo

mac

y an

d th

e Ko

rea

Foun

datio

n: P

ast,

Pres

ent,

and

Futu

re, p

roce

edin

gs o

f the

Con

fere

nce

to C

omm

emor

ate

the

15th

Anni

vers

ary

of th

e K

orea

Fou

ndat

ion,

Sep

tem

ber 2

006;

pag

es 2

9-32

. ix

Ben

yus,

Jan

ine.

Bio

mim

icry

: In

nova

tion

Insp

ired

by N

atur

e. H

arpe

r Per

enni

al, 1

Sep

tem

ber 2

002.

x

See

And

erso

n, C

hris

, “Pe

ople

pow

er, ”

in W

IRED

Issu

e 14

.07,

Jul

y 20

06, a

vaila

ble

at: h

ttp://

ww

w.w

ired.

com

/wire

d/ar

chiv

e/14

.07/

peop

le.h

tml (

acce

ssed

15

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

xi O

ffice

of S

cien

ce a

nd T

echn

olog

y, “F

ores

ight

: D

rugs

Fut

ures

202

5? T

he S

cena

rios,

” sce

nario

4:

Hig

h P

erfo

rman

ce, p

.11.

xi

i The

Wor

kpla

ce In

telli

genc

e U

nit/D

TI, “

The

Futu

re o

f Wor

k” s

cena

rios,

“Goo

d In

tent

ions

” sce

nario

, pp.

19-

23.

xiii

Ibid

.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

HSE

Sce

nario

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

Intr

oduc

tion:

Sc

enar

io C

ross

Th

is s

cena

rio is

one

of a

set

of f

our c

ompr

isin

g H

SE

’s S

cena

rios

for t

he F

utur

e of

P

erso

nal r

espo

nsib

ility

, pro

-act

ive

adop

tion

of te

chno

logy

, H

ealth

and

Saf

ety

in 2

017.

The

sce

nario

s re

sulte

d fro

m d

iscu

ssio

ns a

nd g

roup

wor

k m

anag

emen

t of r

isk,

abi

lity

to a

bsor

b im

pact

s of

con

flict

/war

and

du

ring

a sc

enar

io-b

uild

ing

wor

ksho

p (2

0-21

Jul

y 20

06) h

oste

d by

HS

E’s

Hor

izon

re

silie

nce

in th

e fa

ce o

f eco

nom

ic/s

ocia

l/oth

er s

hock

s

Sca

nnin

g te

am a

s pa

rt of

a w

ider

sce

nario

-pla

nnin

g pr

ojec

t. P

artic

ipan

ts p

riorit

ised

ch

ange

issu

es a

nd c

reat

ed th

e ‘s

cena

rio c

ross

’ to

the

right

that

pro

vide

d th

e lo

gica

l fra

mew

ork

for f

our s

cena

rios.

The

tim

e ho

rizon

targ

eted

was

201

7.

This

sce

nario

, ‘B

oom

and

Bla

me’

, is

driv

en b

y de

crea

sed

pers

onal

resp

onsi

bilit

y –

a ’b

lam

e cu

lture

’ – a

nd d

ecre

ased

risk

tole

ranc

e co

mbi

ned

with

incr

ease

d U

K

Dec

reas

ed U

K

com

petit

iven

ess

in th

e gl

obal

pol

itica

l eco

nom

y.

com

petit

iven

ess

Sce

nario

s ar

e no

t pre

dict

ions

of t

he fu

ture

-th

ey a

re v

ivid

sto

ries

abou

t pos

sibl

e fu

ture

s. T

hey

help

us

expl

ore

the

boun

darie

s of

unc

erta

inty

def

ined

by

spec

ified

Incr

ease

d U

K

com

petit

iven

ess,

ha

rmon

isat

ion

of

regu

latio

ns;

diffe

rent

ly a

bled

in

empl

oym

ent;

inco

rpor

atio

n of

m

igra

nts;

ente

rpris

e cu

lture

, ex

pect

atio

n of

w

ell-b

eing

and

so

cial

coh

esio

n

58

driv

ers

of c

hang

e. S

cena

rios

writ

ten

for i

nter

activ

e ex

erci

ses

are

typi

cally

brie

f, B

lam

e cu

lture

, res

ista

nce

to n

ew te

chno

logy

, rej

ectio

n of

risk

, de

pict

ed in

per

sona

l rat

her t

han

inst

itutio

nal a

necd

otes

, and

sal

ted

with

hum

our

shat

tere

d by

impa

cts

of c

onfli

ct/w

ar a

nd fr

agili

ty in

the

face

of

(laug

hter

aid

s im

pact

and

mem

ory)

. B

ut th

ese

are

best

bas

ed o

n re

sear

ch

econ

omic

/soc

ial/o

ther

sho

cks

scen

ario

s: l

onge

r nar

rativ

es, d

epic

ted

in b

road

er te

rms.

The

rese

arch

sce

nario

for

‘Boo

m a

nd B

lam

e’ b

egin

s w

ith a

brie

f ove

rvie

w o

f con

ditio

ns in

201

7 an

d th

e hi

stor

ical

cha

nges

whi

ch c

reat

ed th

em.

It th

en e

xplo

res

how

life

is d

iffer

ent i

n th

is

futu

re in

gre

ater

det

ail:i

•W

hat c

once

pts,

idea

s an

d pa

radi

gms

defin

e th

e w

orld

aro

und

us?

•H

ow d

o w

e re

late

to e

ach

othe

r – w

hat a

re th

e so

cial

stru

ctur

es a

nd

rela

tions

hips

that

link

peo

ple

and

orga

nisa

tions

? •

How

do

we

conn

ect w

ith e

ach

othe

r --w

hat t

echn

olog

ies

conn

ect p

eopl

e,

plac

es a

nd th

ings

? •

Wha

t are

the

proc

esse

s an

d te

chno

logi

es th

roug

h w

hich

we

crea

te g

oods

an

d se

rvic

es?

•H

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

– h

ow d

o w

e ac

quire

and

use

th

em?

The

scen

ario

fini

shes

by

focu

sing

on

the

chan

ging

wor

kpla

ce, a

nd c

hang

ed h

ealth

an

d sa

fety

issu

es.

Incr

ease

d U

K c

ompe

titiv

enes

s, h

arm

onis

atio

n of

re

gula

tions

; diff

eren

tly a

bled

in e

mpl

oym

ent;

inco

rpor

atio

n of

mig

rant

s; e

nter

pris

e cu

lture

, ex

pect

atio

n of

wel

l-bei

ng a

nd s

ocia

l coh

esio

n

Bla

me

cultu

re, r

esis

tanc

e to

new

te

chno

logy

, rej

ectio

n of

risk

, sh

atte

red

by im

pact

s of

co

nflic

t/war

and

frag

ility

in th

e fa

ce o

f eco

nom

ic/s

ocia

l/oth

er

Boo

m a

nd B

lam

e sh

ocks

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

59

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

‘Boo

m a

nd B

lam

e’

Ove

rvie

w

As t

he 2

0th ce

ntur

y en

ded,

ana

lyst

s w

rote

‘202

0’ f

orec

asts

, sc

enar

ios,

and

vis

ions

– fo

r ci

ties,

pro

vinc

es, a

nd c

ount

ries;

fo

r com

pani

es, a

genc

ies,

and

ent

ire s

ecto

rs; a

nd fo

r spe

cies

, ec

osys

tem

s, a

nd p

lane

tary

dyn

amic

s.

From

the

vant

age

of

2017

– w

ithin

hai

ling

dist

ance

of 2

020

–

The

glob

al e

cono

my

of 2

017

is a

dog

-eat

-dog

are

na.

In th

e U

K p

rivat

isat

ion

is u

p, a

nd th

e m

arke

t is

free.

Br

itain

has

a

hist

ory

of e

cono

mic

suc

cess

and

is r

elat

ivel

y st

rong

tod

ay,

but

how

sta

ble

is t

hat

stre

ngth

? Pe

ople

are

wor

ried

abou

t th

e fu

ture

. W

hat

com

poun

ds t

he w

orry

is

the

cost

to

the

envi

ronm

ent

of m

aint

aini

ng e

cono

mic

vita

lity.

R

emem

ber

sust

aina

bilit

y? I

t has

take

n a

back

sea

t to

aggr

essi

ve g

row

th

stra

tegi

es, a

mon

g th

em th

e lo

osen

ing

of e

nviro

nmen

tal a

nd

heal

th r

egul

atio

ns.

Com

pani

es a

re o

ffsho

ring

prod

uctio

n to

re

duce

cos

ts.

They

are

als

o of

fsho

ring

was

te t

o m

inim

ise

disp

osal

and

rem

edia

tion

expe

nses

. W

hile

Brit

ish

inve

stor

s ar

e m

ovin

g ag

gres

sive

ly

into

em

ergi

ng

mar

kets

, fo

reig

n in

vest

ors

are

snat

chin

g up

vul

nera

ble

UK

com

pani

es.

Soci

ety

priz

es c

ompe

titio

n an

d as

serti

vene

ss.

Econ

omic

an

d so

cial

pre

ssur

es to

enh

ance

bus

ines

s pr

oduc

tivity

mea

n th

at b

usin

ess

owne

rs h

ave

a ve

sted

inte

rest

in th

e w

elln

ess

of

empl

oyee

s.

Com

pani

es

now

ge

netic

ally

pr

ofile

pr

ospe

ctiv

e em

ploy

ees

as a

mat

ter

of c

ours

e, a

nd p

rovi

de

subc

utan

eous

RFI

D w

elln

ess/

envi

ronm

ent s

enso

rs to

ass

ist

empl

oyee

s in

mai

ntai

ning

pea

k he

alth

and

pea

k pr

oduc

tivity

. Th

e ec

onom

ic v

alue

of p

rovi

ng ‘c

lean

gen

es’ h

as p

rodu

ced

a ne

w e

xten

ded

fam

ily a

s a

knoc

k-on

effe

ct; g

enea

logy

has

beco

me

popu

lar,

and

rela

tives

who

fin

d ea

ch o

ther

usi

ng

onlin

e ge

neal

ogy

softw

are

ofte

n m

eet

to d

iscu

ss m

edic

al

hist

orie

s an

d st

ay to

soc

ialis

e.

The

publ

ic m

ood

is in

crea

sing

ly la

isse

z-fa

ire.

Gov

ernm

ent i

s ex

pect

ed to

be

less

intru

sive

in th

e bu

sine

ss s

ecto

r and

less

in

trusi

ve in

priv

ate

lives

. Th

e co

rolla

ry is

ero

sion

of

soci

al

safe

ty n

ets.

In

fluen

tial

com

men

tato

rs a

re f

ocus

ing

in o

n w

hat

they

see

as

an e

ver-p

olar

ised

soc

iety

, w

ith p

rivile

ged

encl

aves

and

ghe

ttois

ed c

omm

uniti

es.

But

the

tide

of

com

mun

itaria

nism

, lo

ng i

n eb

b, s

eem

s to

be

risin

g; m

ore

vote

rs a

re v

oici

ng d

issa

tisfa

ctio

n w

ith r

isin

g cr

ime

and

the

grow

ing

indi

gent

pop

ulat

ion.

Rec

ent H

isto

ry (2

007

– 20

17)

2009

: Tr

ust

betw

een

econ

omic

par

tner

s be

gins

to

unra

vel

as s

ever

al E

U m

embe

r st

ates

opt

for

‘as

soci

ate

mem

ber’

stat

us; t

he e

xtra

pre

ssur

es o

n th

e Eu

ro s

ee th

e Br

itish

pou

nd

soar

. C

heap

hol

iday

s ar

e of

fset

by

ever

-loud

er r

oars

fro

m

the

beas

t of

inf

latio

n, s

till

cage

d bu

t ra

ttlin

g th

e ba

rs w

ith

ever

incr

easi

ng v

igou

r.

2011

: O

n 22

Nov

embe

r 20

11,

the

ban

on u

sing

gen

etic

in

form

atio

n ex

pire

d,

and

insu

rers

co

mpe

ted

fierc

ely

for

owne

rshi

p of

gen

etic

dat

abas

es.

Acce

ss to

gen

etic

pro

files

of

ins

uran

ce c

usto

mer

s ra

dica

lly c

hang

ed t

he i

nsur

ance

m

odel

; in

sura

nce

beca

me

muc

h ch

eape

r fo

r so

me,

mor

e ex

pens

ive

for m

ost,

and

unob

tain

able

for t

he fe

w.ii

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

60

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

2013

: Th

e er

osio

n of

mul

ti-la

tera

lism

con

tinue

d in

the

early

pa

rt of

th

is

deca

de

as

som

e EU

m

embe

rs

opte

d fo

r m

embe

rshi

p of

the

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Fre

e Tr

ade

Agre

emen

t. C

oope

ratio

n de

finite

ly lo

st o

ut t

o co

mpe

titio

n in

tern

atio

nally

as

th

e em

ergi

ng

econ

omie

s sc

ram

bled

fo

r ev

er-s

carc

er

reso

urce

s ag

ains

t the

est

ablis

hed

econ

omie

s.

This

com

petit

ion

for

reso

urce

s im

pact

ed o

n al

l. Th

e ‘w

ater

ta

x’ w

as a

pplie

d to

thos

e w

ithou

t wat

er m

eter

s.

New

dut

ies

on c

ars

fuel

led

by s

olel

y by

pet

rol w

ere

intro

duce

d. A

nd c

ar

tax

was

fix

ed a

ccor

ding

to

both

mile

s tra

velle

d an

d tim

e of

tra

vel.

Hitc

h-hi

kers

reap

pear

ed a

t Brit

ain’

s sl

ip ro

ads.

Man

y ris

ked

stop

ping

to g

ive

them

a li

ft -

the

expe

ctat

ion

was

that

th

ey w

ould

con

tribu

te to

the

cost

of f

uel;

it w

asn’

t unc

omm

on

to p

ick

up s

omeo

ne e

n ro

ute

to a

bus

ines

s m

eetin

g.

The

skills

of

ha

cker

s an

d cy

ber-a

ttack

ers

reac

hed

new

he

ight

s. A

con

sorti

um a

nnou

nced

milli

ons

in c

ash

priz

es fo

r an

yone

abl

e to

dev

ise

a fo

olpr

oof m

eans

to ‘t

rack

the

hack

’ fo

llow

ing

the

‘FTS

E 1

00 B

lack

out’

of 2

1 Ju

ly 2

013.

Th

is c

ut

elec

trici

ty

to

the

UK’

s to

p 10

0 co

mpa

nies

, st

oppi

ng

prod

uctio

n lin

es

and

over

heat

ing

insu

ffici

ently

ai

r-co

nditi

oned

ser

ver

farm

s, w

ith k

nock

-on

impa

cts

on o

ver

1,00

0 su

bsid

iary

firm

s.

2015

: A

co

nsor

tium

of

U

K

com

pani

es

spon

sore

d th

e ‘W

orke

r W

elln

ess

Hea

dsta

rt’ p

rogr

amm

e, o

fferin

g fin

anci

al

ince

ntiv

es

for

pare

nts

in

thei

r em

ploy

to

ha

ve

babi

es

gene

tical

ly p

rofil

ed a

t birt

h. S

ocia

l ana

lyst

s co

mm

ente

d th

at

this

mig

ht c

reat

e a

‘new

aris

tocr

acy’

of t

hose

fam

ilies

who

se

gene

tic e

valu

atio

ns in

dica

te c

onsi

sten

tly g

ood

heal

th.

In a

rel

ated

sto

ry,

the

sam

e co

nsor

tium

’s ‘W

orke

r W

elln

ess

Now

’ pro

gram

me

met

with

run

away

suc

cess

. Th

is in

itiat

ive

offe

red

an

info

rmat

ion

pack

an

d H

R

staf

f tra

inin

g fo

r co

mpa

nies

wis

hing

to im

plan

t em

ploy

ees

with

sub

cuta

neou

s R

FID

sen

sors

to

mon

itor

envi

ronm

enta

l st

ress

ors,

hea

lth,

and

prod

uctiv

ity.

Orig

inal

ly,

empl

oyee

s w

ere

offe

red

ince

ntiv

es fo

r ad

optin

g th

e im

plan

ts.

They

are

now

see

n as

lu

xury

ben

efits

; all

pers

onal

hea

lth te

chno

logi

es a

re v

alue

d.

2017

: In

ear

ly F

ebru

ary,

ove

r 1,

200

seni

or m

anag

ers

in

com

pani

es a

cros

s th

e U

K to

ok il

l. Th

e ‘E

xecu

tive

Epid

emic

’ w

as fi

nally

trac

ed to

infe

cted

RFI

D im

plan

ts.

In-D

epth

Exp

lora

tion

Def

ine:

wha

t con

cept

s, id

eas,

par

adig

ms,

and

val

ues

defin

e th

is w

orld

?

21st

Cen

tury

Brit

ain

has

unle

ashe

d th

e m

arke

t. C

ompe

titio

n is

the

prim

ary

valu

e, a

nd e

cono

mic

ape

x pr

edat

ors

are

wid

ely

adm

ired.

Pr

ivat

isat

ion

is

cons

ider

ed

the

mos

t ef

fect

ive

mod

el to

ach

ieve

org

anis

atio

nal e

ffici

enci

es.

Whe

n do

ne r

ight

, of

cou

rse;

it is

ack

now

ledg

ed t

hat

som

e of

the

20

th ce

ntur

y pr

ivat

isat

ion

expe

rimen

ts h

ad s

erio

us s

truct

ural

fla

ws.

In

2017

the

ide

al o

rgan

isat

ion

has

a le

an b

alan

ce

shee

t, an

d ex

tern

alis

es

cost

s as

an

ex

plic

it st

rate

gy.

Cor

pora

te s

ocia

l re

spon

sibi

lity

now

mea

ns h

ow m

uch

a bu

sine

ss h

as c

ontri

bute

d to

enr

ichi

ng th

e na

tion

as a

who

le,

its im

med

iate

env

irons

, and

its

stoc

khol

ders

.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

61

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

Peop

le d

o ac

know

ledg

e th

e re

al c

halle

nges

the

wor

ld fa

ces.

Th

e te

n st

raig

ht y

ears

of

incr

easi

ngly

war

m S

epte

mbe

rs

illust

rate

d th

e gr

owin

g im

pact

s of

clim

ate

chan

ge.

The

priv

ate

sect

or h

as s

impl

y co

nclu

ded

that

add

ress

ing

such

a

mas

sive

pro

blem

req

uire

s ge

nera

ting

inco

me

on a

mas

sive

sc

ale.

Fix

ing

big

prob

lem

s co

sts

big

mon

ey.

Con

sequ

ently

, m

aint

aini

ng th

e U

K’s

econ

omic

vita

lity

is a

prio

rity.

The

cont

radi

ctio

n bu

ilt i

nto

this

wor

ldvi

ew is

stil

l a

poin

t of

pu

blic

de

bate

; ke

epin

g co

sts

low

to

in

crea

se

prof

its

inev

itabl

y ge

nera

tes

a tra

gedy

of t

he c

omm

ons

that

am

plifi

es

the

envi

ronm

enta

l pro

blem

s pe

ople

are

gen

erat

ing

wea

lth to

so

lve.

Th

e ba

ckla

sh

has

enco

urag

ed

a m

ilitan

t en

viro

nmen

talis

t fift

h co

lum

n.

Soci

ety

valu

es e

duca

tion

mor

e th

an e

ver

– an

d co

mpe

titiv

e sp

orts

(fo

r th

e m

inds

et).

Both

are

see

n as

ess

entia

l to

m

aint

aini

ng B

ritai

n in

the

for

efro

nt o

f th

e w

orld

eco

nom

y.

Chr

onic

und

erin

vest

men

t in

educ

atio

n m

eans

that

ove

r 85

%

of la

rge

corp

orat

ions

offe

r no

t ju

st in

-hou

se tr

aini

ng,

but

in-

hous

e sc

hool

ing.

M

ost

of t

hese

cor

pora

tions

are

lob

byin

g th

e go

vern

men

t to

ren

ovat

e th

e na

tiona

l edu

catio

n sy

stem

: th

is is

not

a c

ost t

hey

wan

t to

bear

inde

finite

ly.

Con

cept

s of

equ

ality

hav

e sh

ifted

. Pe

ople

no

long

er t

alk

abou

t in

equa

lity

rela

ting

to

race

/dis

abilit

y/ag

e,

and

the

gend

er

bala

nce

has

now

sh

ifted

in

fa

vour

of

w

omen

. In

equa

lity

is p

rimar

ily d

ue t

o he

alth

/gen

etic

pre

disp

ositi

ons.

In

kee

ping

with

pub

lic e

xpec

tatio

ns,

the

Gov

ernm

ent

has

refu

sed

to le

gisl

ate

on th

is.

Attit

udes

tow

ards

imm

igra

tion

have

als

o ch

ange

d, a

s sk

illed

wor

kers

in th

e m

anuf

actu

ring

sect

or a

re fo

rced

to e

mig

rate

in

sear

ch o

f w

ork.

Im

mig

rant

s w

ith g

ood

heal

th p

rofil

es a

re

wel

com

ed.

Rel

ate:

ho

w d

o pe

ople

rel

ate

to e

ach

othe

r –

wha

t are

the

so

cial

st

ruct

ures

an

d re

latio

nshi

ps

that

lin

k pe

ople

an

d or

gani

satio

ns?

Gov

ernm

ent i

n 20

17 is

muc

h le

ss in

trusi

ve.

Whi

le g

ood

for

busi

ness

, th

at s

tanc

e is

bel

ieve

d to

gen

erat

e so

cial

cris

es.

Safe

ty n

ets

for

the

unem

ploy

ed a

nd u

nder

-em

ploy

ed,

the

elde

rly a

nd c

hild

ren

have

ero

ded

over

the

pas

t de

cade

. D

isco

nten

t is

ris

ing

over

the

ext

ent

to w

hich

thi

s cr

eate

s m

ini-h

uman

itaria

n di

sast

ers

in p

ocke

ts th

roug

hout

Brit

ain.

The

UK

has

sup

porte

d fre

e tra

de w

ithin

trad

e bl

ocks

and

EU

pr

otec

tioni

sm.

The

Euro

pean

Com

mis

sion

has

lost

muc

h of

its

pow

er.

The

way

forw

ard

for

the

‘new

Eur

ope’

of t

he p

ost

Wor

ld W

ar T

wo

year

s no

w s

eem

s ve

ry u

ncle

ar.

Glo

bally

, the

free

mar

ket c

ontin

ues

to th

row

spa

rks.

Peo

ple

caug

ht o

n th

e w

rong

sid

e of

the

glo

bal w

ealth

div

ide

have

m

oved

bey

ond

sim

mer

ing

rese

ntm

ent

to e

xplo

sive

ang

er

and

mat

chin

g m

ilitan

cy.

The

reso

urce

div

ide,

exe

mpl

ified

by

gl

obal

w

ater

sh

orta

ges,

ex

acer

bate

s th

is.

Stra

tegi

c al

lianc

es w

ith o

rgan

ised

cyb

er-c

rime

allo

w h

acke

rs to

cau

se

glob

al d

isru

ptio

n vi

a di

gita

l net

wor

ks.

Soci

ety

is m

ore

divi

ded.

Pr

izin

g co

mpe

titio

n le

gitim

ises

the

wea

lthy

and

recr

eate

s th

e Vi

ctor

ian

notio

n of

th

e ‘u

ndes

ervi

ng

poor

’. U

rban

ar

chite

ctur

e en

scrib

es

the

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

62

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

‘suc

cess

’ ga

p in

th

e fo

rtifie

d ga

rden

wal

ls

of

priv

ilege

d en

clav

es a

nd th

e bl

aste

d co

mm

ons

of th

e ne

w g

hetto

s.

Con

solid

atio

n of

th

e Br

itish

ec

onom

y ar

ound

tra

ditio

nal

know

ledg

e ec

onom

y an

d ex

perie

nce

econ

omy

sect

ors

– fin

ance

s, b

usin

ess

serv

ices

, tec

hnic

al e

xper

tise,

and

tour

ism

–

has

wid

ened

the

‘suc

cess

gap

’. M

anuf

actu

ring

jobs

are

di

sapp

earin

g an

d th

e jo

b m

arke

t in

crea

sing

ly

dem

ands

ad

vanc

ed e

duca

tion.

In

dust

rial

skills

hav

e lo

st v

alue

, an

d fis

cal

wiz

ardr

y,

stra

tegi

c re

sear

ch,

and

tech

nica

l un

ders

tand

ing

are

the

orde

r of

the

day.

Th

e la

bour

mar

ket

has

pola

rised

bet

wee

n hi

gh-le

vel

know

ledg

e jo

bs a

nd l

ow-

leve

l ser

vice

jobs

. Sk

illed

blue

-col

lar

wor

kers

are

look

ing

abro

ad

for

posi

tions

an

d Br

itain

is

lo

sing

la

bour

to

em

igra

tion.

Th

e in

crea

sed

empl

oym

ent

and

rete

ntio

n of

ol

der w

orke

rs h

as c

lose

d ou

t job

opp

ortu

nitie

s fo

r the

you

ng.

Soci

ety

is la

bour

rich

, but

incr

easi

ngly

ski

lls p

oor i

n ex

perti

se

criti

cal f

or th

e kn

owle

dge

econ

omy.

Girl

s co

ntin

ued

to o

utpe

rform

boy

s in

sch

ools

, an

d w

ith

grea

ter

acad

emic

ach

ieve

men

ts b

ecam

e m

ore

soug

ht a

fter

in th

e w

orkp

lace

. The

focu

s of

em

ploy

ers

on e

duca

tion

and

know

ledg

e le

ft m

any

youn

g m

en a

t a

disa

dvan

tage

in

the

jobs

mar

ket a

nd u

nem

ploy

men

t with

in th

is g

roup

has

rise

n.

Wom

en

also

co

ntin

ue

to

live

long

er

than

m

en.

In

an

econ

omy

relia

nt o

n ol

der

wor

kers

, thi

s m

eans

you

ng fe

mal

e w

orke

rs a

re r

epla

cing

em

ploy

ees

who

die

in p

ost,

resu

lting

in

bus

ines

ses

dom

inat

ed b

y w

omen

.

As

unem

ploy

men

t ro

se

amon

g yo

ung

men

, so

di

d re

sent

men

t, cr

ime

and

urba

n un

rest

cha

ract

eris

ed b

y a

burg

eoni

ng

gang

cu

lture

. Em

ploy

ers

are

incr

easi

ngly

re

luct

ant

to e

mpl

oy y

oung

men

who

se p

ostc

ode

reve

als

a ‘c

erta

in’

area

. Th

e go

vern

men

t ha

s pr

opos

ed c

ompu

lsor

y na

tiona

l ‘ga

p ye

ar’ s

ervi

ce a

s a

poss

ible

sol

utio

n.

Empl

oyer

s ge

netic

ally

pr

ofile

em

ploy

ees

as

a m

atte

r of

co

urse

. G

enea

logy

has

boo

med

as

a re

sult.

Fa

mili

es a

re

inve

stin

g tim

e an

d m

oney

in tr

acin

g al

l the

bra

nche

s of

thei

r fa

mily

tre

e.

Far-f

lung

rel

ativ

es m

eet

to m

ap t

heir

heal

th

prof

iles

and

soci

alis

e, r

evita

lisin

g th

e ex

tend

ed f

amily

for

ve

ry 2

1st ce

ntur

y re

ason

s.

Peop

le w

ho w

ant

child

ren

pay

mor

e at

tent

ion

to

DN

A

prof

iles

and

com

bina

toric

s in

ch

oosi

ng s

pous

es.

Glo

bal c

limat

e ch

ange

is v

isib

ly e

tche

d on

the

envi

ronm

ent.

Sum

mer

s ar

e w

arm

er a

nd l

onge

r, an

d he

at w

aves

mor

e co

mm

on.

Coa

sts

and

estu

arie

s su

ffer

from

mor

e, a

nd m

ore

extre

me,

sto

rms.

Fl

oodi

ng

patte

rns

have

cha

nged

and

re

draw

n th

e ris

k m

ap fo

r co

nstru

ctio

n.

Build

ing

regu

latio

ns

have

bee

n ad

just

ed a

s a

resu

lt.

Unf

ortu

nate

ly, m

ore

wat

er

from

sto

rms

ofte

n m

eans

les

s w

ater

to

drin

k as

sea

wat

er

intru

des

on w

ater

tabl

es.

Pollu

tion

leve

ls a

re a

lso

high

er in

th

e w

ake

of g

over

nmen

t der

egul

atio

n an

d lo

oser

con

trols

.

Con

nect

: ho

w

do

we

conn

ect

with

ea

ch

othe

r –

wha

t te

chno

logi

es c

onne

ct p

eopl

e, p

lace

s, a

nd th

ings

?

Com

petit

ion

in t

he 2

4/7/

365

econ

omy

requ

ires

ubiq

uito

us

com

putin

g.

The

perv

asiv

e, ‘

alw

ays

on’

tele

com

s/co

mpu

ter

net

crea

tes

an

imm

ersi

ve,

roun

d-th

e-cl

ock

wor

k en

viro

nmen

t. To

he

lp e

mpl

oyee

s m

anag

e st

ress

and

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

mai

ntai

n he

alth

in

th

is

turb

o-ch

arge

d at

mos

pher

e,

com

pani

es d

istri

bute

‘dig

ital b

urrs

’ – s

mal

l RFI

D s

enso

rs th

at

atta

ch t

o cl

othe

s, h

air,

or

equi

pmen

t to

mon

itor

heal

th,

envi

ronm

enta

l fa

ctor

s,

and

safe

ty.iii

They

co

nnec

t to

co

rpor

ate

HR

sy

stem

s,

insu

ranc

e da

taba

ses,

an

d w

hat

rem

ains

of

the

publ

ic A

&E r

espo

nse

infra

stru

ctur

e.

Larg

er

com

pani

es re

quire

sub

cuta

neou

s se

nsor

impl

ants

dur

ing

the

full

tenu

re o

f em

ploy

men

t.iv

The

mos

t pop

ular

soc

ial n

etw

orki

ng p

rogr

ams

of th

is d

ecad

e ar

e ge

neal

ogic

al s

earc

h-an

d-ch

at c

omm

uniti

es.

The

mos

t so

ught

-afte

r lu

xury

bus

ines

s so

ftwar

e is

a

digi

tal

clon

e,

whi

ch

stan

ds

betw

een

the

user

an

d th

is

high

-stre

ss

imm

ersi

ve

envi

ronm

ent,

filte

ring

data

-stre

ams

for

the

high

est-p

riorit

y in

put.

Ther

e ha

s be

en a

rev

ersa

l of

the

trend

to

live

far

from

the

w

orkp

lace

be

caus

e of

lo

nger

w

orki

ng

hour

s,

secu

rity

conc

erns

an

d fu

el

cost

s.

Tran

spor

t co

mpa

nies

de

liver

im

prov

emen

ts f

or

shor

t-dis

tanc

e tra

ins

(with

in t

he ‘

have

’ en

clav

es a

t le

ast).

Jou

rney

tim

es a

re d

rast

ical

ly c

ut a

nd

dela

ys fo

r com

mut

ers

beco

me

a th

ing

of th

e pa

st (p

eopl

e do

no

t wan

t to

was

te a

sec

ond

of th

eir t

ime)

.

edge

thr

ough

an

ever

-ligh

t re

gula

tory

touc

h; r

educ

ing

taxe

s on

fue

ls a

nd p

rivat

isin

g se

rvic

es.

Busi

ness

is c

ontri

butin

g to

o th

roug

h ta

king

up

the

slac

k to

tig

hten

the

skills

gap

; in-

hous

e tra

inin

g ha

s be

com

e in

-hou

se s

choo

ling;

ed

ucat

iona

l pr

ogra

ms

are

now

com

mon

in la

rge

busi

ness

es.

The

inte

nse

focu

s on

cy

ber-

secu

rity

has

hobb

led

open

so

urce

com

mun

ities

and

pee

r-pro

duce

d so

ftwar

e. ‘

Mas

h up

’ m

edia

are

all

but i

nter

dict

ed;

busi

ness

has

dem

ande

d m

uch

mor

e st

ringe

nt a

nd c

ompr

ehen

sive

pro

secu

tion

of d

ata

and

med

ia p

iracy

.

Whi

te g

oods

and

sm

all c

onsu

mer

goo

ds a

re im

porte

d. ‘M

ade

in th

e U

K’ n

ow a

pplie

s pr

imar

ily to

ser

vice

s an

d ep

hem

era.

En

terp

rises

are

lar

ger.

Succ

essf

ul s

mal

l co

mpa

nies

gro

w;

unsu

cces

sful

sm

all

com

pani

es

are

abso

rbed

by

la

rger

en

terp

rises

. Th

e tre

nd o

f ne

ighb

ourh

ood

‘mom

and

pop

’ st

oref

ront

s di

sapp

earin

g co

ntin

ued.

Lo

okin

g at

tou

rism

as

an e

xam

ple,

hot

el c

hain

s ar

e bu

ying

up

loca

l B&B

’s to

cre

ate

natio

nal

B&B

br

ands

. Th

ey

have

ho

mog

enis

ed

the

gues

thou

se e

xper

ienc

e in

ser

vice

to e

cono

mie

s of

sca

le a

nd

in a

id o

f ra

isin

g qu

ality

sta

ndar

ds.

Som

e sm

all e

nter

pris

es

achi

eve

effic

ienc

y w

hile

mai

ntai

ning

a u

niqu

e br

and

via

cons

ortia

agr

eem

ents

with

sim

ilar b

usin

esse

s.

Cre

ate:

wha

t ar

e th

e pr

oces

ses

and

tech

nolo

gies

thr

ough

w

hich

we

crea

te g

oods

and

ser

vice

s?

Con

sum

e: h

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

– h

ow

In g

loba

l te

rms,

the

UK

is

a fa

st a

dopt

er a

nd i

nnov

ator

. do

we

acqu

ire a

nd u

se th

em?

Busi

ness

is

bo

omin

g in

fin

ance

s,

busi

ness

se

rvic

es,

tech

nica

l exp

ertis

e, a

nd to

uris

m.

Fore

ign

owne

rshi

p am

ong

Hig

h st

reet

sho

ps a

re s

uffe

ring:

th

e em

ploy

ed h

ave

not

the

FTSE

10

0 co

mpa

nies

ha

s in

crea

sed

over

th

e la

st

enou

gh

time

to

shop

fo

r no

n-es

sent

ial

good

s,

and

the

deca

de.

The

gove

rnm

ent w

orks

to e

nhan

ce th

is c

ompe

titiv

e un

empl

oyed

not

eno

ugh

mon

ey.

In r

espo

nse,

mor

e an

d

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

63

64

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

mor

e re

taile

rs u

se t

heir

bric

k-an

d-m

orta

r sh

ops

as d

ispl

ays

for

mer

chan

dise

tha

t is

act

ually

sol

d on

line

‘“W

indo

w s

hop

and

then

sho

p on

Win

dow

s In

tern

et E

xplo

rer’)

. An

othe

r po

pula

r st

rate

gy i

s th

e ‘e

xpre

ss s

hop’

– s

tore

red

esig

ns

aim

ed a

t ten

-min

ute

turn

over

of c

usto

mer

s w

ith a

pur

chas

e.

Thes

e re

ly o

n da

taba

ses

with

cus

tom

er s

izes

, pr

efer

ence

s,

and

prev

ious

pur

chas

es in

terli

nked

with

fina

ncia

l dat

a. C

hip

read

ers

in d

oors

reco

gnis

e th

e cu

stom

er a

nd re

lay

thei

r dat

a to

the

near

est a

vaila

ble

sale

sper

son’

s da

tapa

d.

This

allo

ws

the

sale

s st

aff

to

link

cust

omer

re

ques

ts

to

avai

labl

e pr

efer

red

stoc

k in

sec

onds

. W

ith s

ize

(incl

udin

g he

ight

, w

eigh

t, an

d m

easu

rem

ents

)v al

read

y co

rrela

ted

to t

he it

em,

peop

le d

on’t

even

try

clot

hing

on

anym

ore.

vi

Ther

e ha

s be

en

grow

th

in

pers

onal

ph

ysic

al

secu

rity

serv

ices

to

o,

as a

re

sult

of

pola

risat

ion

of

soci

ety

and

incr

easi

ng m

ilitan

cy o

f the

‘hav

e-no

ts’.

Secu

rity

is n

o lo

nger

so

met

hing

tha

t th

e go

vern

men

t pr

ovid

es,

so t

he m

arke

t fo

r th

is i

s gr

owin

g (b

oth

in t

erm

s of

new

tec

hnol

ogie

s an

d se

curit

y gu

ards

). So

met

imes

thi

s is

pro

vide

d by

em

ploy

ers,

bu

t gen

eral

ly it

is s

omet

hing

that

indi

vidu

als

need

to p

rocu

re

for

them

selv

es. S

ervi

ces

are

acqu

ired

from

one

of t

he m

ajor

se

curit

y pr

ovid

ers,

who

ens

ure

qual

ity a

nd v

ettin

g of

sta

ff.

With

reg

ard

to e

nviro

nmen

talis

m a

nd re

sour

ce u

se, t

he a

nti-

carb

on l

obby

won

. Br

itain

has

bui

lt m

ore

nucl

ear

pow

er

plan

ts t

o as

sure

dom

estic

ele

ctric

al s

uppl

y. S

ubsi

dies

on

biof

uels

hav

e re

duce

d fu

el p

rices

, m

akin

g go

ods

trans

port

less

exp

ensi

ve.

Mor

e ca

rs a

re o

n th

e ro

ads,

alth

ough

man

y co

rpor

ate

wor

kers

use

pub

lic t

rans

port

beca

use

they

can

co

ntin

ue w

orki

ng o

n th

e w

ay in

or

out

of t

he o

ffice

. O

ther

pu

blic

env

ironm

enta

l in

itiat

ives

mus

t no

w o

pera

te i

n th

e

blac

k. C

omm

unity

recy

clin

g pr

ogra

ms

still

exis

t, bu

t are

now

ta

xed

to c

over

ope

ratin

g co

sts.

Focu

s on

the

Cha

ngin

g W

orkp

lace

Man

ufac

turin

g ha

s m

ostly

bee

n ou

tsou

rced

and

offs

hore

d.

The

wor

kpla

ce to

day

is th

e of

fice

mor

e th

an th

e fa

ctor

y flo

or.

This

con

side

rabl

y re

duce

s w

orrie

s ab

out

maj

or w

orkp

lace

ha

zard

s.

Whe

re b

usin

esse

s ha

ve c

onso

lidat

ed,

the

wor

k en

viro

nmen

ts a

re s

tand

ardi

sed

for

the

sake

of

effic

ienc

y of

su

pply

and

tra

inin

g.

But

shift

s ar

e lo

nger

; pr

essu

re t

o pr

oduc

e ke

eps

wor

kers

at t

heir

desk

s w

ell i

nto

the

even

ing.

At

first

co

rpor

ate

gene

tic

prof

iling

was

us

ed

to

iden

tify

wor

kers

par

ticul

arly

sen

sitiv

e to

che

mic

als

and

subs

tanc

es

used

in

inno

vativ

e m

ater

ials

pro

duct

ion.

Th

e in

crea

sing

so

phis

ticat

ion

of g

enom

ic a

naly

sis

allo

wed

com

pani

es t

o ev

alua

te c

andi

date

s’ f

it to

cor

pora

te c

ultu

re i

n te

rms

of

met

abol

ism

, per

sona

lity,

and

vul

nera

bilit

y to

stre

ss. G

enom

ic

eval

uatio

n ha

s cr

eate

d ne

w s

ocia

l ga

ps a

s sc

reen

ing

for

heal

th

and

long

evity

is

us

ed

for

insu

ranc

e,

pens

ion

sche

mes

, an

d be

nefit

s, a

ll ad

just

ed a

ccor

ding

to

peop

le’s

ex

pect

ed li

fesp

an.

Thes

e sc

reen

ing

prog

ram

s ar

e th

e fir

st s

tep

in c

orpo

rate

HR

su

ppor

t fo

r th

e us

e of

hum

an p

erfo

rman

ce e

nhan

cem

ent

drug

s an

d te

chno

logi

es b

y em

ploy

ees.

Com

pany

caf

es o

ffer

an a

rray

of s

anct

ione

d H

PE d

rugs

, an

d co

rpor

ate

train

ing

incl

udes

inst

ruct

ion

in th

eir

use.

It

also

incl

udes

inst

ruct

ion

in u

sing

RFI

D/n

ano

heal

th s

enso

rs t

o m

onito

r pr

oduc

tivity

, en

viro

nmen

tal

stre

ssor

s, m

etab

olis

m,

and

over

all

heal

th.

Mon

itorin

g an

d sc

reen

ing

empl

oyee

s’ b

ehav

iour

and

hea

lth

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

at

wor

k an

d at

ho

me

lets

th

e H

R

team

m

onito

r st

aff

prod

uctiv

ity.

It’s

all

abou

t ad

ditio

nal

com

petit

ive

edge

. (“

Mai

ntai

ning

pro

duct

ivity

is a

24/

7/36

5 en

deav

our!”

)

Cor

pora

tions

and

bus

ines

ses

are

cutti

ng b

ack

on w

orke

r am

eniti

es,

alth

ough

so

fa

r pr

oduc

tivity

co

ncer

ns

have

pr

eser

ved

heal

th-r

elat

ed p

erks

like

com

pany

fitn

ess

cent

res.

But i

ssue

s of

trus

t, pr

ivac

y, a

nd li

abilit

y ar

e st

ill rif

e, a

nd th

e tig

htes

t cor

pora

te c

yber

-sec

urity

can

be

foun

d fir

ewal

ling

the

HR

he

alth

se

nsor

ne

ts.

Initi

ally

em

ploy

ees

acce

pted

in

trusi

ve ‘

chip

ping

’ be

caus

e in

a b

uyer

s’ m

arke

t fo

r la

bour

th

ey h

ad li

ttle

choi

ce.

Of c

ours

e, th

ere

wer

e al

so e

cono

mic

in

cent

ives

in th

e fo

rm o

f red

uced

insu

ranc

e pr

emiu

ms

and

a hi

gher

sal

ary

scal

e.

Mos

t pe

ople

now

ack

now

ledg

e th

e ph

ysic

al b

enef

its.

The

sens

ors

do a

ctua

lly im

prov

e he

alth

mai

nten

ance

. Th

ey

are

desi

gned

to b

e pr

even

tativ

e, fo

cuse

d on

enh

anci

ng w

ell-

bein

g.

Pers

onal

sen

sors

hav

e be

com

e a

luxu

ry t

he ‘h

ave-

nots

’ w

ishe

d th

ey h

ad –

and

the

‘ha

ves’

wis

hed

they

had

co

ntro

l ove

r. Pe

ople

rel

y on

chi

ps t

o m

onito

r th

eir

heal

th,

whi

ch d

ista

nces

res

pons

ibilit

y fo

r he

alth

and

env

ironm

enta

l ris

ks fr

om in

divi

dual

s th

emse

lves

.

Life

has

los

t to

wor

k in

the

bat

tle f

or w

ork/

life

bala

nce.

Pe

rvas

ive

com

putin

g al

low

s w

ork

alm

ost

anyw

here

, bu

t co

rpor

ate

secu

rity

and

priv

acy

conc

erns

m

ean

mos

t em

ploy

ees

still

wor

k in

the

offic

e, w

here

gre

ater

sec

urity

can

be

ass

ured

. Th

is p

rodu

ces

stag

gere

d ru

sh h

our

traffi

c, a

nd

shift

s it

to a

ban

d be

twee

n 8

and

10 p

m.

Mor

e co

mpe

titio

n am

ong

com

pani

es

mea

ns

mor

e co

mpe

titio

n w

ithin

com

pani

es;

empl

oyee

s ba

ttle

for

high

er

payi

ng p

ositi

ons

and

suffe

r hig

her s

tress

as

a re

sult.

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y Is

sues

In F

TSE

100

com

pani

es, e

mpl

oyer

s vi

ew w

orke

r he

alth

and

fit

ness

as

a st

rate

gic

reso

urce

ens

urin

g hi

gh p

rodu

ctiv

ity.

Succ

essf

ul e

mpl

oyee

s gu

ard

thei

r he

alth

as

a re

sour

ce w

ith

conc

rete

sal

ary

impl

icat

ions

. Th

ese

pers

pect

ives

ren

der

gene

tic p

rofil

ing

and

subc

utan

eous

RFI

D h

ealth

sen

sors

no

n-co

ntro

vers

ial.

In f

ree

mar

ket

cond

ition

s, t

he in

sura

nce

indu

stry

driv

es h

ealth

and

saf

ety,

spu

rred

on

by l

itiga

tion.

C

onsu

mer

hea

lth i

ssue

s an

d pu

blic

saf

ety

are

as b

ig a

pr

iorit

y as

wor

kpla

ce s

afet

y.

The

conc

ept

of s

ensi

ble

risk

is n

ow f

orgo

tten.

With

gen

etic

pr

ofilin

g an

d th

e po

wer

of i

nsur

ance

com

pani

es, p

eopl

e an

d or

gani

satio

ns

are

seek

ing

mor

e an

d m

ore

cont

rol.

Ris

k as

sess

men

t is

repl

aced

by

risk

prev

entio

n, a

s th

e hi

gher

end

of

soc

iety

(i.e

. th

e ‘h

aves

’) de

man

ds a

ll ris

ks a

re s

tam

ped

out a

s so

on a

s th

ey m

ater

ialis

e.

Stre

ss

is

the

top

heal

th

issu

e am

ong

the

empl

oyed

. W

orse

ning

air

qual

ity c

oupl

ed w

ith s

tress

-dep

ress

ed im

mun

e sy

stem

s ha

s ca

used

a re

surg

ence

in re

spira

tory

infe

ctio

ns.

Obe

sity

is o

n th

e de

clin

e am

ong

the

‘hav

es’,

mor

e be

caus

e it

is

perc

eive

d as

un

prod

uctiv

e an

d un

com

petit

ive

than

sp

ecifi

cally

for

hea

lth r

easo

ns.

The

chro

nica

lly u

nder

-an

d un

empl

oyed

– w

hose

ran

ks c

urre

ntly

equ

al 2

0% o

f th

e

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

65

66

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

pote

ntia

l w

orkf

orce

– r

emai

n th

e ho

tspo

t of

the

lin

gerin

g ob

esity

epi

dem

ic.

Gro

wth

in

the

know

ledg

e ec

onom

y ha

s sh

ifted

the

foc

us

firm

ly in

the

dire

ctio

n of

hea

lth.

Stre

ss a

nd m

uscu

losk

elet

al

prob

lem

s ar

e th

e m

ain

focu

s.

But

empl

oyer

s us

e pr

even

tativ

e m

easu

res

(incl

udin

g ne

w

tech

nolo

gy)

in

conj

unct

ion

with

gen

etic

pro

filin

g, s

o on

ly t

hose

ind

icat

ing

inhe

rent

long

evity

and

goo

d he

alth

ben

efit.

Oth

er e

mpl

oyee

s su

fferin

g fro

m t

hese

pro

blem

s w

ill jo

in t

he e

ver-

incr

easi

ng

rank

s of

the

‘hav

e-no

ts’ a

s em

ploy

ers

do n

ot s

ee in

vest

men

t in

pre

vent

ion

as w

orth

whi

le.

Win

ners

and

Los

ers

In t

he c

ompe

titiv

e, p

rivat

ised

lan

dsca

pe o

f 20

17,

skille

d w

orke

rs a

nd fe

mal

e w

orke

rs h

ave

an a

dvan

tage

. Li

kew

ise,

ph

ysic

al

disa

bilit

y is

ov

erlo

oked

in

th

e ba

lanc

e w

ith

educ

atio

n, e

xper

tise,

and

ess

entia

l goo

d he

alth

, so

it is

a w

in

for

the

diffe

rent

ly a

bled

. H

ealth

care

pro

fess

iona

ls a

lso

win

, as

the

ir sa

larie

s in

crea

se,

alth

ough

com

petit

ion

for

wor

k is

st

iffer

– b

ut s

o it

is fo

r eve

ryon

e.

Gua

rant

eein

g co

nsis

tent

pro

duct

ivity

is k

ey.

Thus

long

-term

ill

heal

th –

phy

sica

l or m

enta

l – is

a s

igni

fican

t dis

adva

ntag

e in

the

empl

oym

ent m

arke

t.

Ref

eren

ces

and

Res

ourc

es:

Fore

sigh

t and

sce

nario

s re

sour

ces

whi

ch o

ffer c

onfir

min

g ev

iden

ce a

nd in

sigh

ts fo

r the

HSE

sce

nario

s:

•ES

RC

Soc

iety

Tod

ay, “

Cha

ngin

g O

ur B

ehav

iour

, Not

the

Clim

ate”

ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.e

src.

ac.u

k/E

SRC

Info

Cen

tre/a

bout

/CI/C

P/O

ur_S

ocie

ty_T

oday

/Spo

tligh

ts_2

006/

chan

ge1.

aspx

?Com

pone

ntId

=157

78&

Sour

cePa

geId

=157

97

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. •

Inst

itute

of t

he F

utur

e M

ap o

f the

Dec

ade

(200

3, 2

004,

200

5), a

vaila

ble

at:

o

2003

--ht

tp://

ww

w.if

tf.or

g/do

cs/S

R-7

97_M

ap_o

f_de

cade

.pdf

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. o

20

04 --

http

://w

ww

.iftf.

org/

docs

/SR

-844

_200

4_M

ap_o

f_th

e_D

ecad

e.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

. o

20

05 --

http

://w

ww

.iftf.

org/

docs

/SR

-910

_200

5_M

OTD

.pdf

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. •

Offi

ce o

f Sci

ence

and

Tec

hnol

ogy,

“For

esig

ht:

Dru

gs F

utur

es 2

025?

The

Sce

nario

s, ” a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.fore

sigh

t.gov

.uk/

Brai

n_Sc

ienc

e_A

ddic

tion_

and_

Dru

gs/R

epor

ts_a

nd_P

ublic

atio

ns/D

rugs

Futu

res2

025/

DTI

-Sce

nario

s.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

. •

Ora

nge

Futu

re E

nter

pris

e C

oalit

ion,

“Sce

nario

s of

Wor

k an

d Te

chno

logy

in 2

016,

” ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.o

rang

ecoa

litio

n.co

m/a

pp/w

ebro

ot/fi

les/

whi

tepa

pers

/Ora

nge_

scen

ario

s_of

_wor

k_an

d_te

chno

logy

_201

6.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber

2006

). •

Taki

ng S

tock

, “Fu

ture

s Sc

enar

ios”

ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.ta

king

stoc

k.or

g/Fu

ture

s.as

p (a

cces

sed

15 S

epte

mbe

r 200

6).

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

67

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: B

oom

and

Bla

me

•Th

e W

orkp

lace

Inte

lligen

ce U

nit /

DTI

, “Th

e Fu

ture

of W

ork”

sce

nario

s, a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.wor

kpla

cein

telli

genc

e.co

.uk/

uplo

ads/

files

/dti_

futu

re_o

f_w

ork.

pdf (

acce

ssed

15

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

i This

org

anis

atio

nal s

chem

e is

ada

pted

from

Glo

bal F

ores

ight

Ass

ocia

tes’

“Eth

noFu

ture

s Sc

anni

ng F

ram

ewor

k, ” d

evis

ed b

y M

iche

lle B

owm

an a

nd K

aipo

Lu

m.

Mic

helle

Bow

man

and

Wen

dy S

chul

tz, “

Best

Pra

ctic

es in

Env

ironm

enta

l Sca

nnin

g: T

he W

orld

Bey

ond

Stee

p, ” p

rese

ntat

ion

at th

e W

orld

Fut

ure

Soci

ety,

Chi

cago

, 30

July

200

5.

ii W

ith a

ckno

wle

dgem

ents

to th

e w

riter

and

dire

ctor

of t

he m

ovie

“Gat

taca

, ” w

ho c

oine

d th

is te

rm.

iii Fi

tzge

rald

, Ron

an, “

Follo

w y

ou, f

ollo

w m

e, ” T

he G

uard

ian,

Thu

rsda

y, 1

4 Se

ptem

ber 2

006.

iv

Mui

r, Ka

te, “

The

first

hum

an c

redi

t car

ds, ”

The

Tim

es, 3

Sep

tem

ber 2

006.

v

See

Fre

eman

, Had

ley,

“Not

hing

in y

our s

ize?

Sto

res

seek

to m

easu

re u

p, ” T

he G

uard

ian,

Sat

urda

y, 9

Sep

tem

ber 2

006.

vi

C

hris

Oak

ley’

s 20

04 s

hort

film

, “Th

e C

atal

ogue

, ” pr

esen

ts a

vis

ual s

cena

rio o

f a d

atab

ase

of c

usto

mer

info

rmat

ion

incl

udin

g pr

evio

us p

urch

ases

, phy

sica

l an

d he

alth

cha

ract

eris

tics,

and

fina

ncia

l inf

orm

atio

n.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

HSE

Sce

nario

Pro

ject

: Tou

gh C

hoic

es

Intro

duct

ion:

Sc

enar

io C

ross

Th

is s

cena

rio is

one

of a

set

of f

our c

ompr

isin

g H

SE

’s S

cena

rios

for t

he F

utur

e of

P

erso

nal r

espo

nsib

ility

, pro

-act

ive

adop

tion

of te

chno

logy

, H

ealth

and

Saf

ety

in 2

017.

The

sce

nario

s re

sulte

d fro

m d

iscu

ssio

ns a

nd g

roup

wor

k m

anag

emen

t of r

isk,

abi

lity

to a

bsor

b im

pact

s of

con

flict

/war

and

du

ring

a sc

enar

io b

uild

ing

wor

ksho

p (2

0-21

Jul

y 20

06) h

oste

d by

the

HS

E’s

Hor

izon

re

silie

nce

in th

e fa

ce o

f eco

nom

ic/s

ocia

l/oth

er s

hock

s S

cann

ing

team

as

part

of a

wid

er s

cena

rio p

lann

ing

proj

ect.

Par

ticip

ants

prio

ritis

ed

chan

ge is

sues

and

cre

ated

the

‘sce

nario

cro

ss’ t

o th

e rig

ht th

at p

rovi

ded

the

logi

cal

fram

ewor

k fo

r fou

r sce

nario

s. T

he ti

me

horiz

on ta

rget

ed w

as 2

017.

Thi

s sc

enar

io,

‘Tou

gh C

hoic

es’,

is d

riven

by

decr

ease

d pe

rson

al re

spon

sibi

lity

– a

‘bla

me

cultu

re’

– an

d de

crea

sed

risk

tole

ranc

e co

mbi

ned

with

dec

reas

ed U

K c

ompe

titiv

enes

s in

th

e gl

obal

pol

itica

l eco

nom

y.

Dec

reas

ed U

K

com

petit

iven

ess

Sce

nario

s ar

e no

t pre

dict

ions

of t

he fu

ture

– th

ey a

re v

ivid

sto

ries

abou

t pos

sibl

e fu

ture

s. T

hey

help

us

expl

ore

the

boun

darie

s of

unc

erta

inty

def

ined

by

spec

ified

dr

iver

s of

cha

nge.

Sce

nario

s w

ritte

n fo

r int

erac

tive

exer

cise

s ar

e ty

pica

lly b

rief,

Incr

ease

d U

K

com

petit

iven

ess,

ha

rmon

isat

ion

of

regu

latio

ns;

diffe

rent

ly a

bled

in

empl

oym

ent;

inco

rpor

atio

n of

m

igra

nts;

ente

rpris

e cu

lture

, ex

pect

atio

n of

w

ell-b

eing

and

so

cial

coh

esio

n

68

depi

cted

in p

erso

nal r

athe

r tha

n in

stitu

tiona

l ane

cdot

es, a

nd s

alte

d w

ith h

umou

r (la

ught

er a

ids

impa

ct a

nd m

emor

y).

But

thes

e ar

e be

st b

ased

on

rese

arch

sc

enar

ios:

lon

ger n

arra

tives

, dep

icte

d in

bro

ader

term

s. T

he re

sear

ch s

cena

rio fo

r ‘T

ough

Cho

ices

’ beg

ins

with

a b

rief o

verv

iew

of c

ondi

tions

in 2

017

and

the

hist

oric

al c

hang

es th

at c

reat

ed th

em.

It th

en e

xplo

res

how

life

is d

iffer

ent i

n th

is

futu

re in

gre

ater

det

ail:i

•W

hat c

once

pts,

idea

s an

d pa

radi

gms

defin

e th

e w

orld

aro

und

us?

•H

ow d

o w

e re

late

to e

ach

othe

r – w

hat a

re th

e so

cial

stru

ctur

es a

nd

rela

tions

hips

that

link

peo

ple

and

orga

nisa

tions

?•

How

do

we

conn

ect w

ith e

ach

othe

r --w

hat t

echn

olog

ies

conn

ect p

eopl

e,

plac

es a

nd th

ings

? •

Wha

t are

the

proc

esse

s an

d te

chno

logi

es th

roug

h w

hich

we

crea

te g

oods

an

d se

rvic

es?

•H

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

– h

ow d

o w

e ac

quire

and

use

th

em?

The

scen

ario

fini

shes

by

focu

sing

on

the

chan

ging

wor

kpla

ce, a

nd c

hang

ed h

ealth

an

d sa

fety

issu

es.

Bla

me

cultu

re, r

esis

tanc

e to

new

tech

nolo

gy, r

ejec

tion

of ri

sk,

shat

tere

d by

impa

cts

of c

onfli

ct/w

ar a

nd fr

agili

ty in

the

face

of

econ

omic

/soc

ial/o

ther

sho

cks

Dec

reas

ed U

K c

ompe

titiv

enes

s

Bla

me

cultu

re, r

esis

tanc

e to

ne

w te

chno

logy

, rej

ectio

n of

ris

k, s

hatte

red

by im

pact

s of

co

nflic

t/war

and

frag

ility

in th

e To

ugh

Cho

ices

fa

ce o

f eco

nom

ic/s

ocia

l/oth

er

shoc

ks

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

69

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

‘Tou

gh C

hoic

es’

Ove

rvie

w

As t

he 2

0th ce

ntur

y en

ded,

ana

lyst

s w

rote

‘202

0’ f

orec

asts

, sc

enar

ios,

and

vis

ions

– fo

r ci

ties,

pro

vinc

es, a

nd c

ount

ries;

fo

r com

pani

es, a

genc

ies,

and

ent

ire s

ecto

rs; a

nd fo

r spe

cies

, ec

osys

tem

s, a

nd p

lane

tary

dyn

amic

s.

From

the

vant

age

of

2017

– w

ithin

hai

ling

dist

ance

of 2

020

–

The

pres

ent

is a

land

scap

e lit

tere

d w

ith t

ough

cho

ices

; th

e fu

ture

see

ms

nast

y an

d br

utis

h. A

ny c

ompa

rativ

e ad

vant

age

that

Eur

ope

once

enj

oyed

on

the

glob

al e

cono

mic

sta

ge h

as

evap

orat

ed.

The

decl

inin

g ec

onom

y dr

ove

the

best

and

br

ight

est

of t

he y

oung

ove

rsea

s se

arch

ing

for

wel

l-pai

d ca

reer

s. I

nnov

atio

n ha

s sl

owed

as

a re

sult.

Une

mpl

oym

ent

is h

igh

whi

le a

t th

e sa

me

time

low

-end

job

s go

beg

ging

. M

ore

and

mor

e of

ten

thos

e jo

bs a

re fi

lled

by m

igra

nt w

orke

rs

or il

lega

l alie

ns.

Soci

al

divi

des

and

alie

natio

n ha

ve

ampl

ified

fro

m

the

mille

nniu

m o

n. R

isin

g re

sent

men

ts g

ener

ated

mor

e lit

igat

ion

as

peop

le

stro

ve

to

blam

e so

meo

ne

else

fo

r th

eir

grie

vanc

es.

Dis

affe

cted

yo

uth

join

ga

ngs

that

sp

lit

com

mun

ity tu

rf. N

ews

from

urb

an n

eigh

bour

hood

s lo

oks

like

cove

rage

of

civi

l w

ar –

loc

al r

iots

are

com

mon

, an

d lo

cal

polic

ing

is to

ughe

r in

resp

onse

.

Swee

ping

der

egul

atio

n ac

ross

Eur

ope

was

hop

ed t

o ju

mp-

star

t th

e ec

onom

y.

The

only

res

ult s

o fa

r is

an

incr

ease

in

air,

soil,

and

wat

er p

ollu

tion.

The

gre

y an

d bl

ack

econ

omie

s ha

ve c

erta

inly

bee

n gr

owin

g –

but t

hat t

rend

pre

cede

d de

-

regu

latio

n, a

s or

gani

sed

crim

e di

sreg

ards

reg

ulat

ions

in a

ny

case

.

Whi

le s

till

free

at t

he p

oint

of

deliv

ery,

the

NH

S i

s un

der

trem

endo

us p

ress

ure.

Priv

ate

heal

th in

sura

nce

is e

xpen

sive

bu

t tho

se th

at c

an a

fford

it, p

ay.

Anal

ysts

wor

ry th

at th

e U

K

is o

n th

e br

ink

of c

ompl

ete

soci

etal

bre

akdo

wn;

new

dat

a su

gges

ts

incr

ease

d m

alnu

tritio

n an

d de

clin

ing

life

expe

ctan

cy.

Rec

ent H

isto

ry (2

007

– 20

17)

2007

: So

ciet

y as

a w

hole

was

gro

win

g in

crea

sing

ly li

tigio

us.

Whi

le n

ot m

atch

ing

US

lev

els,

mor

e an

d m

ore

com

pani

es

wer

e co

ping

with

cla

ss a

nd g

roup

act

ions

. ii U

K c

ompa

nies

al

so i

ncre

asin

gly

foun

d th

emse

lves

in

cour

t ac

tions

with

re

gard

to

regu

lato

ry i

nfra

ctio

ns.

Busi

ness

lea

ders

dec

ried

wha

t th

ey s

aw a

s th

e ex

cess

ivel

y co

mpl

ex U

K r

egul

ator

y en

viro

nmen

t.

Atte

mpt

s to

repr

iorit

ise

the

scie

nces

and

mat

hem

atic

s w

ithin

th

e U

K e

duca

tiona

l sys

tem

sho

wed

mix

ed r

esul

ts.

The

first

ye

ar

of

the

expe

rimen

tal

prog

ram

fo

cusi

ng

mat

hs

and

scie

nces

G

CSE

s on

qu

estio

ns

draw

n fro

m

daily

lif

e m

aint

aine

d st

uden

t int

eres

t, bu

t did

not

dem

onst

rate

whe

ther

th

ey w

ere

adeq

uate

ly p

repa

red

to c

ontin

ue s

cien

ce s

tudi

es

post

-16.

Tow

ards

the

end

of 2

007,

the

EU e

cono

my

slow

ed.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

70

2008

: R

ecor

d le

vels

of i

mm

igra

tion

into

the

UK

from

eas

tern

Eu

rope

co

ntin

ued.

iii In

crea

sing

pu

blic

un

ease

w

ith

the

situ

atio

n m

ay h

ave

cont

ribut

ed t

o th

e gr

owth

of

the

right

-w

ing

in g

over

nmen

t; ca

ndid

ates

wer

e pr

opos

ing

to c

onsi

der

imm

igra

tion

cont

rols

in a

dditi

on to

sim

plify

ing

the

regu

lato

ry

envi

ronm

ent f

or b

usin

ess.

2009

: As

the

firs

t de

cade

of

the

21st

ce

ntur

y ca

me

to a

n en

d, th

e po

wer

hous

e ec

onom

ies

in M

iddl

e Ea

st, S

outh

Asi

a,

and

East

Asi

a ca

me

into

thei

r ow

n. E

U c

ompe

titiv

enes

s an

d gr

owth

sag

ged

in c

ompa

rison

. Th

us b

egan

the

UK

‘yo

uth

drai

n’.

Mor

e an

d m

ore

high

ly q

ualif

ied

grad

uate

s be

gan

to

look

abr

oad

for i

nter

estin

g ca

reer

s.

Dom

estic

ally

, th

e nu

mbe

rs a

nd v

arie

ties

of y

outh

gan

gs in

U

K

com

mun

ities

in

crea

sed.

An

alys

ts

sugg

este

d a

conn

ectio

n w

ith

the

econ

omic

sl

owdo

wn

and

risin

g un

empl

oym

ent.

Ris

ing

leve

ls o

f con

flict

, on

the

othe

r ha

nd,

wer

e at

tribu

ted

to c

ultu

ral

clas

hes

amon

g lo

ng-ti

me

loca

ls

and

vario

us n

ew im

mig

rant

gro

ups.

2010

: By

201

0 th

e Eu

rope

an e

cono

mic

hic

coug

h w

as

reve

alin

g its

elf a

s a

maj

or s

tum

ble.

The

UK

was

not

imm

une,

an

d bu

sine

ss’ a

bilit

y to

ada

pt a

nd in

nova

te w

as h

ampe

red

by

an

incr

easi

ng

tale

nt

drou

ght

in

the

scie

nces

, m

athe

mat

ics,

and

eng

inee

ring.

The

influ

x of

imm

igra

nts

and

mig

rant

w

orke

rs

cont

inue

d,

alon

g w

ith

an

incr

ease

d in

cide

nce

of il

lega

l wor

k ga

ngs.

N

ew g

hetto

are

as e

mer

ged

in U

K c

ities

, and

the

grey

and

bla

ck e

cono

mie

s bl

osso

med

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

2011

: An

alre

ady

pres

sure

d N

HS

foun

d its

elf u

nabl

e to

cop

e w

ith t

he a

dditi

onal

bur

den

of im

mig

rant

and

mig

rant

wor

ker

heal

th p

robl

ems.

Ep

idem

iolo

gist

s tra

cked

a ju

mp

in T

B a

nd

cont

agio

us

dise

ases

ce

ntre

d in

de

pres

sed

urba

n ne

ighb

ourh

oods

. C

omm

uniti

es

wer

e po

laris

ed

by

fear

, pr

imar

ily

acro

ss

cultu

ral

lines

, w

hen

long

-tim

e re

side

nts

blam

ed i

mm

igra

nts

for

brin

ging

the

inf

ectio

ns w

ith t

hem

. Th

e pu

blic

bla

med

the

gov

ernm

ent

as w

ell

for

failin

g to

co

ntro

l th

e tid

e of

im

mig

ratio

n. T

his

parti

cula

r cr

isis

was

si

mpl

y a

sym

ptom

of

the

pola

risat

ion

of s

ocie

ty a

s a

who

le

due

to a

dee

peni

ng e

cono

mic

div

ide.

2012

: Th

e TB

cris

is o

f 20

12 f

inal

ly p

ut t

he N

HS

int

o fu

ll-bl

own

arre

st:

it si

mpl

y la

cked

th

e re

sour

ces

to

treat

ev

eryo

ne i

nfec

ted,

or

even

to

iden

tify

who

all

the

infe

cted

w

ere.

On

the

econ

omic

fro

nt,

inno

vatio

n co

ntin

ued

to s

low

, an

d em

ploy

men

t fe

ll ov

eral

l. Th

e re

sulti

ng d

rop

in g

over

nmen

t re

venu

e co

uple

d w

ith c

ontin

ued

stre

sses

on

gove

rnm

ent

serv

ices

for

ced

cutb

acks

. H

ealth

ben

efits

wer

e cu

rtaile

d;

unem

ploy

men

t an

d in

capa

city

ben

efits

pro

gram

mes

wer

e re

duce

d; a

nd o

ld-a

ge p

ensi

ons

suffe

red

thei

r firs

t cut

.

2014

: M

ore

and

mor

e sm

all

busi

ness

es w

ere

driv

en t

o du

biou

s hi

ring

prac

tices

in a

n ef

fort

to s

tay

com

petit

ive.

Thi

s in

tur

n en

cour

aged

gan

gmas

ters

to

proc

ure

ever

che

aper

la

bour

poo

ls a

nd t

he N

ovem

ber

acci

dent

in

Live

rpoo

l w

as

com

mon

ly r

efer

red

to a

s an

‘in

dust

rial

Mor

ecam

be B

ay’.

Auto

psie

s un

veile

d th

e ap

pallin

g de

tail

that

the

gang

mas

ters

in

que

stio

n ha

d in

ject

ed t

he w

orke

rs w

ith s

ubcu

tane

ous

RFI

D ‘i

nven

tory

tags

’.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

71

Hea

lth o

ffici

als

note

d th

e ris

e in

mum

ps, m

easl

es a

nd ru

bella

w

ith re

sign

atio

n; s

tress

es o

n N

HS

resu

lted

in th

e co

llaps

e of

an

ythi

ng li

ke a

n ef

fect

ive

vacc

inat

ion

regi

me.

2017

: “It

’s

offic

ial;

it’s

defla

tion!

” Br

itain

’s

cons

umer

sp

endi

ng f

alls

to

its l

owes

t po

int

in t

hirty

yea

rs.

Wha

t w

e ne

ed, p

undi

ts d

ecla

red,

is in

cent

ives

to b

orro

w a

nd b

uild

in

orde

r to

jum

psta

rt th

e ec

onom

y. P

ublic

out

rage

ove

r th

e ec

onom

ic c

risis

was

furth

er fu

elle

d by

a s

erie

s of

inte

rvie

ws

cond

ucte

d by

BBC

of p

ensi

oner

s on

the

brea

dlin

e.

In-D

epth

Exp

lora

tion

Def

ine:

wha

t con

cept

s, id

eas,

par

adig

ms,

and

val

ues

defin

e th

is w

orld

?

Peop

le h

ave

beco

me

mor

e in

war

d lo

okin

g. I

n st

raite

ned

finan

cial

tim

es,

the

prio

rity

is o

n pe

rson

al c

halle

nges

, no

t gl

obal

ch

alle

nges

. In

divi

dual

s’

prim

ary

loya

lty

is

to

them

selv

es. D

aily

life

bot

h at

wor

k an

d at

hom

e ha

s be

com

e a

serie

s of

diff

icul

t tra

de-o

ffs. M

ost p

eopl

e se

e co

nser

vatio

n as

the

best

cop

ing

mec

hani

sm, c

onse

rvin

g th

eir e

nerg

y, th

eir

time,

th

eir

mon

ey,

and

even

th

eir

soci

al

cont

acts

. Li

fe

invo

lves

car

eful

ratio

ning

and

allo

catio

n of

lim

ited

reso

urce

s.

Get

ting

ahea

d is

a d

ista

nt d

ream

; lit

tle e

xces

s ex

ists

for

an

ythi

ng

muc

h be

yond

m

aint

aini

ng

thei

r st

atus

qu

o.

Soci

ety’

s op

erat

iona

l m

odel

mig

ht a

s w

ell

be,

“if y

ou c

an’t

gain

gro

und,

at l

east

don

’t lo

se a

ny.”

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

Soci

ety

as a

who

le i

s m

ore

insu

lar,

seei

ng o

utsi

ders

as

com

petit

ors

for

scar

ce r

esou

rces

. Ad

vent

ure

is a

luxu

ry, a

s is

hav

ing

a ch

oice

abo

ut w

ork/

life

bala

nce.

Pe

ople

are

ch

afin

g w

ithin

the

ir ec

onom

ic c

onst

rain

ts.

Res

entm

ent

is

rife,

and

an

incr

easi

ngly

agg

rieve

d pu

blic

find

s it

easi

er a

nd

easi

er t

o co

mpl

ain

via

the

cour

ts.

Litig

atio

n is

the

new

‘p

rope

rty la

dder

’, ju

st a

noth

er ta

ctic

for g

ettin

g ah

ead.

Rel

ate:

ho

w d

o pe

ople

rel

ate

to e

ach

othe

r –

wha

t are

the

soci

al

stru

ctur

es

and

rela

tions

hips

th

at

link

peop

le

and

orga

nisa

tions

?

Ove

r the

last

dec

ade

pres

sure

on

gove

rnm

ent s

ervi

ces

and

agen

cies

has

gro

wn

whi

le ta

x re

venu

es h

ave

slow

ly e

rode

d.

The

inev

itabl

e cu

tbac

ks

redu

ced

serv

ices

an

d be

nefit

s.

Peop

le c

an r

ely

on g

over

nmen

t as

sist

ance

in

few

er a

nd

few

er

area

s of

th

eir

lives

. Po

litic

al

initi

ativ

es

prun

ing

regu

lato

ry s

truct

ures

hav

e ha

d th

e sa

me

resu

lt vi

s-à-

vis

busi

ness

.

Euro

pe’s

rol

e in

the

glo

bal

econ

omy

has

ebbe

d.

Brita

in’s

hi

stor

ical

con

nect

ions

with

Sou

th a

nd E

ast A

sia

now

see

m to

fu

nctio

n pr

imar

ily a

s a

conv

enie

nt c

ondu

it by

whi

ch A

sian

in

vest

ors

buy

out

Briti

sh

com

pani

es,

and

attra

ct

youn

g Br

itish

wor

kers

. Ev

en w

ith a

slu

ggis

h ec

onom

y, h

owev

er,

Brita

in s

till o

ffers

mor

e op

portu

nitie

s th

an m

any

of it

s ea

ster

n Eu

rope

an n

eigh

bour

s, s

o w

hile

the

bes

t an

d br

ight

est

in

Brita

in h

ead

east

, eas

tern

Eur

opea

ns h

ungr

y fo

r op

portu

nity

he

ad w

est t

o th

e U

K.

Org

anis

ed c

rime

netw

orks

hun

gry

for

oppo

rtuni

ty

have

al

so

mov

ed

onto

Br

itish

so

il w

hile

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

72

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

mai

ntai

ning

the

ir co

nnec

tions

and

act

iviti

es in

hom

e ba

ses

thro

ugho

ut E

urop

e.

Peop

le

wor

ry

a lo

t m

ore

abou

t se

curit

y in

th

eir

neig

hbou

rhoo

ds

and

com

mun

ities

. In

crea

sed

yout

h vi

olen

ce b

oth

cont

ribut

es t

o an

d re

sults

fro

m

incr

ease

d et

hnic

te

nsio

n be

twee

n lo

ng-te

rm

resi

dent

s an

d ne

w

imm

igra

nts,

whe

ther

lega

l or

illega

l. As

a r

esul

t, th

e po

lice

are

the

one

bran

ch o

f go

vern

men

t ex

pand

ing,

and

hav

e in

crea

sed

thei

r pr

esen

ce in

com

mun

ities

thro

ugho

ut B

ritai

n.

That

pre

senc

e is

toug

her

than

it w

as in

yea

rs p

ast,

as b

oth

the

yout

h vi

olen

ce a

nd t

he i

llega

l im

mig

rant

s ar

e of

ten

sym

ptom

s of

the

und

erly

ing

encr

oach

men

t of

int

erna

tiona

l or

gani

sed

crim

e.

The

‘eve

ry o

ne f

or t

hem

selv

es’

envi

ronm

ent

has

draw

n a

clos

e lin

e ar

ound

imm

edia

te fa

mili

es.

The

eros

ion

of m

iddl

e cl

ass

expe

ctat

ions

, no

t to

men

tion

disc

retio

nary

inc

ome,

le

aves

littl

e ex

cess

to a

id e

xten

ded

rela

tions

. W

here

you

ng

peop

le h

ave

foun

d jo

bs o

vers

eas,

the

y of

ten

send

fun

ds

hom

e an

d as

sist

thei

r bro

ther

s an

d si

ster

s in

find

ing

wor

k as

w

ell.

It ty

pifie

s th

e to

ugh

choi

ces

of th

is e

nviro

nmen

t: liv

e w

ith y

our

fam

ily a

nd s

trugg

le to

mak

e en

ds m

eet,

or s

catte

r th

e fa

mily

ove

r the

glo

be a

nd g

et a

head

?

Glo

bal

war

min

g ha

s re

nder

ed

the

natu

ral

envi

ronm

ent

incr

easi

ngly

un

pred

icta

ble.

U

ncer

tain

te

mpe

ratu

re

and

wea

ther

pat

tern

s m

ake

agric

ultu

re m

ore

of a

gam

ble,

and

ex

trem

e st

orm

s ac

com

pani

ed b

y he

ight

ened

sto

rm s

urge

da

mag

e co

asta

l inf

rast

ruct

ure.

Th

e en

viro

nmen

talis

ts m

ade

thei

r cas

e su

cces

sful

ly, a

nd e

very

one

ackn

owle

dges

the

link

betw

een

the

high

-car

bon

lifes

tyle

and

glo

bal w

arm

ing.

Bu

t

mos

t pe

ople

gru

mbl

e th

at m

ost

of t

he f

ault

can

be l

aid

at

Amer

ica’

s do

orst

ep,

and

it’s

not

like

any

of u

s ha

ve a

ny

spar

e ch

ange

fo

r re

trofit

ting

our

lifes

tyle

s w

ith

gree

n co

nsum

er g

oods

, now

do

we?

Pe

ople

do

cons

erve

ene

rgy

and

reso

urce

s as

muc

h as

they

can

, but

in th

is e

cono

my,

the

ratio

nale

is c

ost-s

avin

g, n

ot e

nviro

nmen

tal c

orre

ctne

ss.

Con

nect

: ho

w

do

we

conn

ect

with

ea

ch

othe

r –

wha

t te

chno

logi

es c

onne

ct p

eopl

e, p

lace

s, a

nd th

ings

?

The

‘dig

ital d

ivid

e’ th

at p

undi

ts w

arne

d ab

out t

en y

ears

ago

ha

s w

iden

ed a

nd t

rans

form

ed.

It’s

no lo

nger

a q

uest

ion

of

whe

ther

peo

ple

own

a ho

me

com

pute

r an

d ha

ve I

nter

net

acce

ss:

with

the

adv

ent

of p

erva

sive

com

putin

g, s

ocie

ty

now

face

s a

‘real

wor

ld’ –

‘dig

ital r

ealit

y’ d

ivid

e. T

he w

ealth

y ha

ve p

erva

sive

com

putin

g an

d co

mm

unic

atio

n ne

twor

ks,

livin

g im

mer

sed

in a

n ‘a

lway

s on

’ inf

orm

atio

n en

viro

nmen

t of

ambi

ent i

ntel

ligen

ce.

Ever

ybod

y el

se is

stu

ck in

an

anal

ogue

w

orld

, ha

ving

to

mak

e do

with

tur

n-of

-the-

21st-c

entu

ry I

CT

syst

ems.

Mob

ile p

hone

s co

ntin

ued

thei

r M

oore

’s L

aw m

arch

tow

ards

in

crea

sing

cap

acity

and

cap

abilit

ies,

and

so

have

bec

ome

the

poor

per

son’

s po

rtabl

e in

form

atio

n en

viro

nmen

t. In

tern

et

conn

ectio

n,

GPS

ca

pabi

lity,

an

d in

tera

ctio

n w

ith

othe

r pe

rson

al

com

putin

g an

d en

terta

inm

ent

appl

ianc

es

all

beca

me

chea

p en

ough

to in

clud

e in

bas

ic s

ervi

ce p

acka

ges.

As u

sual

, kid

s ar

e ap

plyi

ng th

ose

capa

bilit

ies

crea

tivel

y. T

he

new

cra

ze i

n ur

ban

free

run

orie

ntee

ring

com

bine

s fre

e ru

nnin

g w

ith m

ore

tradi

tiona

l orie

ntee

ring,

with

che

ckpo

ints

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

73

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

digi

tally

adm

inis

tere

d vi

a G

PS a

nd in

tern

et-e

nabl

ed m

obile

ph

ones

. O

f co

urse

, yo

uth

gang

s ar

e al

so u

sing

mob

ile

phon

es c

reat

ivel

y to

coo

rdin

ate

thei

r ac

tiviti

es;

gang

war

s of

ten

begi

n w

ith c

oord

inat

ed ‘f

lash

mob

’ vio

lenc

e.

The

phys

ical

in

frast

ruct

ure

of

conn

ectio

n is

de

cayi

ng.

Roa

ds, b

ridge

s, r

ails

, air

term

inal

s –

all n

eed

refu

rbis

hmen

t no

w to

mai

ntai

n sa

fe o

pera

ting

cond

ition

s, a

nd th

e fu

nds

for

capi

tal

impr

ovem

ent

sim

ply

aren

’t th

ere.

Ev

en

com

mun

icat

ions

net

wor

ks n

eed

cons

iste

nt r

e-in

vest

men

t to

as

sure

un

brok

en

serv

ice,

an

d co

ntin

ued

econ

omic

de

pres

sion

will

mak

e th

at d

iffic

ult.

With

eac

h ye

ar o

f w

ear

on t

hese

bas

ic s

yste

ms,

acc

iden

ts i

ncre

ase,

fee

ding

the

lit

igat

ion

frenz

y.

And

the

mor

e ex

trem

e w

eath

er g

ener

ated

by

glo

bal w

arm

ing

will

only

acc

eler

ate

that

wea

r and

tear

.

Cre

ate:

wha

t ar

e th

e pr

oces

ses

and

tech

nolo

gies

thr

ough

w

hich

we

crea

te g

oods

and

ser

vice

s?

The

UK

labo

ur m

arke

t ha

s be

com

e a

push

me-

pull

you

of

emig

ratio

n an

d im

mig

ratio

n. B

usin

esse

s ha

ve d

owns

ized

to

cut c

osts

and

incr

ease

pro

duct

ivity

. C

ompe

titio

n fo

r the

bes

t jo

bs is

hot

, and

dis

appo

inte

d ca

ndid

ates

with

gre

at C

Vs lo

ok

else

whe

re i

n th

e w

orld

.iv

Low

er d

own

the

empl

oym

ent

ladd

er,

peop

le a

re e

lbow

ing

each

oth

er a

side

for

jobs

with

lo

ng-te

rm h

ealth

and

pen

sion

ben

efits

.

Even

with

hig

h un

empl

oym

ent,

seas

onal

and

low

-end

jobs

go

beg

ging

. Th

at n

eed

is a

nsw

ered

by

EU im

mig

rant

s ea

ger

to g

et a

toe

on

the

econ

omic

ladd

er,

even

at

the

low

end

. U

nfor

tuna

tely

, th

e ne

ed

has

also

be

en

answ

ered

by

v un

scru

pulo

us g

angm

aste

rs a

nd o

rgan

ised

crim

e.

Stor

ies

erup

t in

the

new

s on

a r

egul

ar b

asis

abo

ut t

he a

buse

of

mig

rant

wor

kers

and

the

illega

l im

port

of la

bour

.

Rev

enue

pie

s ar

e sh

rinki

ng a

nd r

esou

rces

are

incr

easi

ngly

lim

ited

for

indi

vidu

als,

fo

r co

mpa

nies

, an

d fo

r th

e go

vern

men

t. Be

lt-tig

hten

ing

is t

he r

ule

of t

he d

ay.

With

lim

ited

capi

tal a

nd re

sour

ces

to g

ambl

e on

new

end

eavo

urs,

in

vest

ors

shy

away

fro

m

risky

in

nova

tions

. Th

is

cons

erva

tism

ha

s sl

owed

th

e U

K’s

vigo

rous

fin

anci

al

serv

ices

sec

tor.

The

era

of tr

aditi

onal

indu

stry

and

man

ufac

turin

g w

as fa

ding

at

th

e tu

rn o

f th

e m

illenn

ium

. M

assi

ve t

rans

ition

s ar

e di

fficu

lt, a

nd th

e tra

nsiti

on to

the

digi

tal e

xper

ienc

e ec

onom

y is

no

diffe

rent

. W

ith a

wea

lth o

f in

telle

ctua

l cap

ital,

the

UK

sh

ould

hav

e be

en fi

rst o

ff th

e st

artin

g bl

ock

in m

eldi

ng n

ew

mat

eria

ls s

cien

ces,

des

ign,

and

med

ia i

nto

an e

cono

mic

tra

nsfo

rmat

ion.

Whe

re d

id B

ritai

n’s

econ

omy

stum

ble?

The

U

K’s

capa

city

to

crea

te s

nagg

ed o

n a

lega

cy o

f un

der-

inve

stm

ent

in

basi

c in

frast

ruct

ure

and

educ

atio

n,

com

poun

ded

by i

ncre

asin

g pu

blic

war

ines

s of

inn

ovat

ive

tech

nolo

gies

as

pote

ntia

lly d

isru

ptiv

e.

Con

sum

e: h

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

– h

ow

do w

e ac

quire

and

use

them

?

Both

con

sum

er s

pend

ing

and

savi

ng a

re a

t th

e lo

wes

t eb

b fo

r th

irty

year

s.

Peop

le a

re p

urch

asin

g fe

wer

goo

ds,

and

purc

hasi

ng le

ss e

xpen

sive

goo

ds.

They

are

buy

ing

chea

p,

buyi

ng k

nock

-offs

, and

buy

ing

in b

ulk.

Sal

es o

f spe

cial

ty a

nd

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

74

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

orga

nic

food

s ha

ve fa

llen.

C

onsu

mer

s ar

e no

long

er a

imin

g fo

r the

bes

t; th

ey a

re a

imin

g in

stea

d fo

r the

mos

t affo

rdab

le.

This

mea

ns s

ales

in

high

stre

et s

hops

hav

e dr

oppe

d, a

nd

that

hig

h-en

d su

perm

arke

ts a

re l

osin

g to

low

-end

cha

ins.

D

irect

mar

ketin

g vi

a th

e In

tern

et is

als

o po

pula

r, as

is e

Bay.

St

reet

ped

dler

s ha

ve s

een

a st

artli

ng r

ise

in s

ales

in

thei

r cl

ient

ele,

and

the

gre

y m

arke

t, th

e us

ed m

arke

t, an

d th

e bl

ack

mar

ket

are

all g

row

ing,

in c

ontra

st t

o th

e re

st o

f th

e ec

onom

y.

This

of c

ours

e ha

s its

haz

ards

for

the

cons

umer

, as

thes

e go

ods

tend

to la

ck a

ctiv

e w

arra

ntie

s.

Onc

e ac

quire

d,

peop

le

use

thei

r pu

rcha

ses

– w

heth

er

clot

hing

, app

lianc

es, o

r con

sum

able

s –

with

a g

reat

er e

ye to

th

eir

long

evity

. D

efla

tion

has

trans

form

ed t

he c

onsu

mer

lif

esty

le i

nto

a co

nser

ver

lifes

tyle

, w

here

peo

ple

have

les

s an

d w

hat t

hey

have

they

use

mor

e ge

ntly

and

rep

air

rath

er

than

repl

ace.

It i

s, o

f cou

rse,

this

low

ered

dem

and

that

itse

lf re

info

rces

def

latio

n:

the

vici

ous

circ

le o

f lo

wer

ed d

eman

d de

crea

sing

pr

oduc

tion,

lo

wer

ing

reve

nues

, tri

gger

ing

job

cutb

acks

, and

dep

ress

ing

dem

and

even

furth

er.

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y in

the

Cha

ngin

g W

orkp

lace

The

heal

th d

ivid

e gr

ows

wid

er: t

here

’s n

ot e

noug

h w

ork

and

for

thos

e at

wor

k, p

reci

ous

little

wel

l-bei

ng.

The

prio

rity

for

peop

le is

to h

ave

at le

ast o

ne jo

b, p

artic

ular

ly a

job

that

may

of

fer

the

holy

gra

il of

per

ks s

uch

as a

pen

sion

and

priv

ate

heal

th in

sura

nce.

Acc

usat

ions

of t

he ‘n

anny

sta

te’ h

ave

long

si

nce

with

ered

on

the

vine

of

hist

ory

– no

one

exp

ects

the

stat

e to

nan

ny a

nybo

dy a

nym

ore.

It’

s a

com

petit

ive

and

cont

entio

us s

ocie

ty.

Each

look

s ou

t for

num

ber o

ne.

Busi

ness

es

are

stru

gglin

g an

d cu

tting

ex

pens

es.

The

aver

age

wor

kpla

ce,

whe

ther

a

man

ufac

turin

g flo

or

or

a bu

sine

ss o

ffice

, is

show

ing

sign

s of

wea

r an

d te

ar w

ith li

ttle

hope

for

ren

ovat

ion

or u

pdat

ing

in t

he n

ear

futu

re.

Old

m

achi

nery

, wor

n flo

orin

g, je

rry-r

igge

d w

iring

and

ove

r-tax

ed

vent

ilatio

n an

d ex

haus

t sy

stem

s co

mbi

ne t

o cr

eate

hea

lth

haza

rds

and

the

pote

ntia

l fo

r ac

cide

nts.

Em

ploy

ers

are

jugg

ling

reso

urce

cos

ts,

staf

fing

cost

s, a

nd t

he n

eed

for

capi

tal

impr

ovem

ent,

and

heal

th a

nd s

afet

y co

nsid

erat

ions

of

ten

lose

ou

t am

ong

othe

r tra

de-o

ffs.

With

pu

blic

in

frast

ruct

ure

in

a si

mila

r st

ate,

th

e he

alth

an

d sa

fety

ha

zard

s ar

e ha

rdly

less

whe

n em

ploy

ees

leav

e w

ork.

In a

stri

pped

dow

n re

gula

tory

stru

ctur

e, s

afet

y at

wor

k is

the

prio

rity.

Pe

ople

kn

ow

that

he

alth

is

im

porta

nt

– th

e ca

mpa

igns

of

a de

cade

bef

ore

hit

thei

r ta

rget

s –

but

why

w

orry

abo

ut lo

ng-te

rm h

ealth

whe

n an

acc

iden

t at w

ork

may

st

rike

you

first

? Al

read

y, th

e m

edia

are

ref

errin

g to

Brit

ain’

s ac

cide

nt e

pide

mic

, an

epi

dem

ic t

hat

is a

mpl

ifyin

g lit

igat

ion,

as

in

jure

d pa

rties

lo

ok

for

mea

ns

to

puni

sh

offe

ndin

g em

ploy

ers

and

obta

in f

inan

cial

red

ress

. To

o of

ten

thei

r lit

igat

ion

goes

now

here

– e

mpl

oyer

s ca

n’t

or w

on’t

pay

and

the

will

isn’

t the

re to

mak

e th

em d

o so

. Bu

t som

e hi

gh p

rofil

e ca

ses

agai

nst o

rgan

isat

ions

with

dee

p po

cket

s su

ccee

d an

d ot

hers

are

enc

oura

ged

to h

ave

a go

. So

ind

ivid

uals

stil

l ov

er-e

at, d

rink

too

muc

h, a

nd s

mok

e, b

ut a

re m

ore

prep

ared

to

lay

the

fau

lt at

the

fee

t of

mar

kete

rs,

brew

ers,

and

ci

gare

tte m

anuf

actu

rers

.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

75

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

Stre

ss,

pollu

tion,

and

stre

et v

iole

nce

have

rea

ched

hei

ghts

no

t see

n fo

r thi

rty y

ears

. U

nder

repo

rting

of h

ealth

and

saf

ety

failu

res

in th

e w

orkp

lace

is ri

fe –

and

the

syst

em in

any

cas

e la

cks

the

reso

urce

s fo

r an

ythi

ng

mor

e th

an

low

-leve

l in

terv

entio

ns

and

the

inve

stig

atio

n of

se

rious

in

cide

nts.

G

iven

the

dom

inan

ce o

f the

bla

ck m

arke

t, hu

ge n

umbe

rs o

f w

orke

rs fa

ll ou

tsid

e th

ose

regu

lato

ry re

gim

es th

at re

mai

n.

Long

er-te

rm e

cono

mic

rec

over

y is

em

ergi

ng w

here

CEO

s ha

ve r

etre

nche

d, m

akin

g st

rate

gic

trade

-offs

am

ong

staf

f nu

mbe

rs,

capi

tal

impr

ovem

ent,

and

wor

kpla

ce s

tand

ards

. Im

prov

ed

wor

kpla

ce

heal

th

and

safe

ty

stan

dard

s ar

e at

tract

ing

bette

r sta

ff an

d av

oidi

ng la

wsu

its.

With

con

sum

ers

retre

nchi

ng a

s w

ell,

disc

ount

ret

aile

rs a

nd w

hole

sale

clu

bs

are

fore

cast

ing

som

e im

prov

emen

t in

cons

umer

pur

chas

ing.

Yout

h br

ight

eno

ugh

and

with

suf

ficie

nt in

itiat

ive

to s

cout

out

W

inne

rs a

nd L

oser

s op

portu

nitie

s ov

erse

as a

re c

opin

g, if

not

ben

efiti

ng.

The

new

ba

rons

of

th

e bl

ack

econ

omy

are

defin

itely

be

nefit

ing

from

the

‘Wild

Wes

t’ en

viro

nmen

t of s

tripp

ed-d

own

regu

latio

ns.

The

boun

darie

s be

twee

n th

e le

gal

and

blac

k m

arke

ts a

re n

arro

win

g. S

treet

ped

dler

s se

lling

chea

p kn

ock-

offs

are

see

ing

high

er g

row

th in

sal

es t

han

the

high

stre

et

stor

es.

Thos

e fe

w c

ompa

nies

willi

ng to

pla

y fa

st a

nd lo

ose

with

th

e re

mai

ning

la

ws

and

regu

latio

ns

can

mat

ch

orga

nize

d cr

ime

in g

ener

atin

g w

ealth

. A

flex

ible

eth

ical

and

m

oral

fra

mew

ork

is

a co

mpe

titiv

e ad

vant

age

in

this

en

viro

nmen

t.

Basi

c re

sear

ch is

suf

ferin

g, a

s is

hig

her e

duca

tion

gene

rally

: re

sour

ces

are

scar

ce a

nd b

usin

ess

foun

datio

ns h

ave

muc

h le

ss m

oney

tha

n in

pas

t. O

lder

peo

ple

find

them

selv

es in

di

re s

traits

as

publ

ic p

rogr

ams

evap

orat

e an

d ev

en t

heir

pens

ion

paym

ents

dec

line.

O

ther

pop

ulat

ions

in

need

are

al

so s

uffe

ring,

with

inc

apac

ity a

nd o

ther

ben

efits

sha

rply

cu

rtaile

d.

Rec

ent i

mm

igra

nts,

whe

ther

lega

l or

illega

l, ha

ve

a pa

rticu

larly

har

d tim

e, a

s go

vern

men

t ha

s fe

w a

ssis

tive

serv

ices

to fa

cilit

ate

thei

r ass

imila

tion

into

Brit

ish

soci

ety.

Ref

eren

ces

and

Res

ourc

es:

Fore

sigh

t and

sce

nario

s re

sour

ces

whi

ch o

ffer c

onfir

min

g ev

iden

ce a

nd in

sigh

ts fo

r the

HSE

sce

nario

s:

• ES

RC

Soc

iety

Tod

ay, “

Cha

ngin

g O

ur B

ehav

ior,

Not

the

Clim

ate”

ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.e

src.

ac.u

k/E

SRC

Info

Cen

tre/a

bout

/CI/C

P/O

ur_S

ocie

ty_T

oday

/Spo

tligh

ts_2

006/

chan

ge1.

aspx

?Com

pone

ntId

=157

78&

Sour

cePa

geId

=157

97

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. •

Inst

itute

of t

he F

utur

e M

ap o

f the

Dec

ade

(200

3, 2

004,

200

5), a

vaila

ble

at:

o

2003

--ht

tp://

ww

w.if

tf.or

g/do

cs/S

R-7

97_M

ap_o

f_de

cade

.pdf

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. o

20

04 --

http

://w

ww

.iftf.

org/

docs

/SR

-844

_200

4_M

ap_o

f_th

e_D

ecad

e.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

76

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: To

ugh

Cho

ices

o

2005

--ht

tp://

ww

w.if

tf.or

g/do

cs/S

R-9

10_2

005_

MO

TD.p

df (a

cces

sed

15 S

epte

mbe

r 200

6).

•O

ffice

of S

cien

ce a

nd T

echn

olog

y, “F

ores

ight

: D

rugs

Fut

ures

202

5? T

he S

cena

rios,

” ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.fo

resi

ght.g

ov.u

k/Br

ain_

Scie

nce_

Add

ictio

n_an

d_D

rugs

/Rep

orts

_and

_Pub

licat

ions

/Dru

gsFu

ture

s202

5/D

TI-S

cena

rios.

pdf (

acce

ssed

15

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

•O

rang

e Fu

ture

Ent

erpr

ise

Coa

litio

n, “S

cena

rios

of W

ork

and

Tech

nolo

gy in

201

6, ” a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.ora

ngec

oalit

ion.

com

/app

/web

root

/file

s/w

hite

pape

rs/O

rang

e_sc

enar

ios_

of_w

ork_

and_

tech

nolo

gy_2

016.

pdf (

acce

ssed

15

Sept

embe

r 20

06).

•Ta

king

Sto

ck, “

Futu

res

Scen

ario

s” a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.taki

ngst

ock.

org/

Futu

res.

asp

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

. •

The

Wor

kpla

ce In

tellig

ence

Uni

t / D

TI, “

The

Futu

re o

f Wor

k” s

cena

rios,

ava

ilabl

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.w

orkp

lace

inte

llige

nce.

co.u

k/up

load

s/fil

es/d

ti_fu

ture

_of_

wor

k.pd

f (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

.

i This

org

anis

atio

nal s

chem

e is

ada

pted

from

Glo

bal F

ores

ight

Ass

ocia

tes’

“Eth

noFu

ture

s Sc

anni

ng F

ram

ewor

k, ” d

evis

ed b

y M

iche

lle B

owm

an a

nd K

aipo

Lu

m.

Mic

helle

Bow

man

and

Wen

dy S

chul

tz, “

Best

Pra

ctic

es in

Env

ironm

enta

l Sca

nnin

g: T

he W

orld

Bey

ond

Stee

p, ” p

rese

ntat

ion

at th

e W

orld

Fut

ure

Soci

ety,

Chi

cago

, 30

July

200

5.

ii Se

e th

e re

port

by F

ulbr

ight

and

Jaw

orsk

i, “F

ulbr

ight

Lau

nche

s Its

Thi

rd A

nnua

l Liti

gatio

n Tr

ends

Sur

vey

Find

ing,

” 10

Oct

ober

200

6, a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.fulb

right

.com

/inde

x.cf

m?f

usea

ctio

n=ne

ws.

deta

il&si

te_i

d=28

6&ar

ticle

_id=

5789

(acc

esse

d 10

Oct

ober

200

6).

Or t

he e

arlie

r rep

ort b

y th

e Fe

dera

tion

of E

urop

ean

Em

ploy

ers,

“Whi

ch c

ount

ry to

ps th

e em

ploy

men

t liti

gatio

n le

ague

in E

urop

e?”,

20 S

epte

mbe

r 200

4,

avai

labl

e at

: http

://w

ww

.fede

e.co

m/p

ress

.sht

ml#

202S

epte

mbe

r200

4 (a

cces

sed

15 S

epte

mbe

r 200

6).

iii

The

Tele

grap

h, “R

ecor

d im

mig

ratio

n fro

m E

aste

rn E

urop

e, ” 2

2 Au

gust

200

6, a

vaila

ble

onlin

e at

: ht

tp://

ww

w.te

legr

aph.

co.u

k/ne

ws/

mai

n.jh

tml;j

sess

ioni

d=U

IIKW

R5G

NN

IJH

QFI

QM

GS

FFO

AVC

BQ

WIV

0?xm

l=/n

ews/

2006

/08/

22/u

imm

igra

nt.x

ml (

acce

ssed

15

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

BBC

New

s, “E

x-m

inis

ter’s

imm

igra

tion

war

ning

, ” 28

Jun

e 20

06, a

vaila

ble

onlin

e at

: http

://ne

ws.

bbc.

co.u

k/1/

hi/u

k_po

litic

s/51

1989

2.st

m (a

cces

sed

15

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

iv Th

e Ec

onom

ist,

“Nig

htm

are

scen

ario

s, ” 5

Oct

ober

200

6, a

vaila

ble

onlin

e at

: http

://w

ww

.eco

nom

ist.c

om/s

urve

ys/d

ispl

ayst

ory.

cfm

?sto

ry_i

d=E1

_SJG

TJN

G

(acc

esse

d 10

Oct

ober

200

6).

v Sc

ienc

e D

aily

, “P

olis

h w

orke

rs m

issi

ng in

Ital

ian

cam

ps, ”

14 S

epte

mbe

r 200

6, a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://w

ww

.sci

ence

daily

.com

/upi

/inde

x.ph

p?fe

ed=T

opN

ews&

artic

le=U

PI-1

-200

6091

4-07

3121

00-b

c-ita

ly-p

olan

d.xm

l (ac

cess

ed 1

5 Se

ptem

ber 2

006)

. Th

e G

uard

ian

Unl

imite

d, “E

xten

d ga

ngm

aste

r pro

tect

ion,

say

MPs

, ” 10

Jan

uary

200

5, a

vaila

ble

at:

http

://po

litic

s.gu

ardi

an.c

o.uk

/new

s/st

ory/

0,91

74,1

3871

58,0

0.ht

ml (

acce

ssed

15

Sept

embe

r 200

6).

Haz

ards

Mag

azin

e, “W

ho’s

pro

tect

ing

the

mig

rant

wor

kers

?” a

vaila

ble

at: h

ttp://

ww

w.h

azar

ds.o

rg/m

igra

nts/

(acc

esse

d 15

Sep

tem

ber 2

006)

.

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

77

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

HSE

Sce

nario

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

Intr

oduc

tion:

Sc

enar

io C

ross

Th

is s

cena

rio is

one

of a

set

of f

our c

ompr

isin

g H

SE

’s S

cena

rios

for t

he F

utur

e of

P

erso

nal r

espo

nsib

ility

, pro

-act

ive

adop

tion

of te

chno

logy

, H

ealth

and

Saf

ety

in 2

017.

The

sce

nario

s re

sulte

d fro

m d

iscu

ssio

ns a

nd g

roup

wor

k m

anag

emen

t of r

isk,

abi

lity

to a

bsor

b im

pact

s of

con

flict

/war

and

du

ring

a sc

enar

io-b

uild

ing

wor

ksho

p (2

0-21

Jul

y 20

06) h

oste

d by

HS

E’s

Hor

izon

re

silie

nce

in th

e fa

ce o

f eco

nom

ic/s

ocia

l/oth

er s

hock

sS

cann

ing

team

as

part

of a

wid

er s

cena

rio-p

lann

ing

proj

ect.

Par

ticip

ants

prio

ritis

ed

chan

ge is

sues

and

cre

ated

the

‘sce

nario

cro

ss’ t

o th

e rig

ht th

at p

rovi

ded

the

logi

cal

fram

ewor

k fo

r the

four

sce

nario

s. T

he ti

me

horiz

on ta

rget

ed w

as 2

017.

Thi

ssc

enar

io, ‘

A V

irtue

of N

eces

sity

’, is

driv

en b

y in

crea

sed

pers

onal

resp

onsi

bilit

y an

d

incr

ease

d ris

k to

lera

nce

com

bine

d w

ith d

ecre

ased

UK

com

petit

iven

ess

in th

e gl

obal

po

litic

al e

cono

my

(illu

stra

ted

low

er ri

ght).

D

ecre

ased

UK

co

mpe

titiv

enes

s

Sce

nario

s ar

e no

t pre

dict

ions

of t

he fu

ture

-th

ey a

re v

ivid

sto

ries

abou

t pos

sibl

e

futu

res.

The

y he

lp u

s ex

plor

e th

e bo

unda

ries

of u

ncer

tain

ty d

efin

ed b

y sp

ecifi

ed

driv

ers

of c

hang

e. S

cena

rios

writ

ten

for i

nter

activ

e ex

erci

ses

are

typi

cally

brie

f,de

pict

ed in

per

sona

l rat

her t

han

inst

itutio

nal a

necd

otes

, and

sal

ted

with

hum

our

Bla

me

cultu

re, r

esis

tanc

e to

new

tech

nolo

gy, r

ejec

tion

of ri

sk,

(laug

hter

aid

s im

pact

and

mem

ory)

. B

ut th

ese

are

best

bas

ed o

n re

sear

ch

shat

tere

d by

impa

cts

of c

onfli

ct/w

ar a

nd fr

agili

ty in

the

face

of

iti ii

li

; di

ll

in

l;

ii

mi

; l

ill-

iia

l i

Incr

ease

d U

K

com

pet

vene

ss,

harm

onsa

ton

of

regu

aton

sffe

rent

y ab

ed

emp

oym

ent

ncor

pora

ton

of

gran

tsen

terp

rise

cutu

re,

expe

ctat

on o

f w

ebe

ng a

nd

soc

cohe

son

econ

omic

/soc

ial/o

ther

sho

cks

scen

ario

s: l

onge

r nar

rativ

es, d

epic

ted

in b

road

er te

rms.

Thi

s re

sear

ch s

cena

rio fo

r ‘A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty’ b

egin

s w

ith a

brie

f ove

rvie

w o

f con

ditio

ns in

201

7 an

d th

e hi

stor

ical

cha

nges

that

cre

ated

them

. It

then

exp

lore

s ho

w li

fe is

diff

eren

t in

this

P

erso

nal r

espo

nsib

ility

, pro

-fu

ture

in g

reat

er d

etai

l:i A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

activ

e ad

optio

n of

tech

nolo

gy,

•W

hat c

once

pts,

idea

s an

d pa

radi

gms

defin

e th

e w

orld

aro

und

us?

man

agem

ent o

f ris

k, a

bilit

y to

ab

sorb

impa

cts

of c

onfli

ct/w

ar

•H

ow d

o w

e re

late

to e

ach

othe

r – w

hat a

re th

e so

cial

stru

ctur

es a

nd

and

resi

lienc

e in

the

face

of

rela

tions

hips

that

link

peo

ple

and

orga

nisa

tions

? ec

onom

ic/s

ocia

l/oth

er s

hock

s •

How

do

we

conn

ect w

ith e

ach

othe

r -w

hat t

echn

olog

ies

conn

ect p

eopl

e,

plac

es a

nd th

ings

?•

Wha

t are

the

proc

esse

s an

d te

chno

logi

es th

roug

h w

hich

we

crea

te g

oods

an

d se

rvic

es?

•H

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

– h

ow d

o w

e ac

quire

and

use

th

em?

The

scen

ario

fini

shes

by

focu

sing

on

the

chan

ging

wor

kpla

ce, a

nd c

hang

ed h

ealth

an

d sa

fety

issu

es.

Dec

reas

ed U

K c

ompe

titiv

enes

s

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

78

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

‘A V

irtue

of N

eces

sity

’

Ove

rvie

w

As t

he 2

0th ce

ntur

y en

ded,

ana

lyst

s w

rote

‘202

0’ f

orec

asts

, sc

enar

ios,

and

vis

ions

– fo

r ci

ties,

pro

vinc

es, a

nd c

ount

ries;

fo

r com

pani

es, a

genc

ies,

and

ent

ire s

ecto

rs; a

nd fo

r spe

cies

, ec

osys

tem

s, a

nd p

lane

tary

dyn

amic

s.

From

the

vant

age

of

2017

– w

ithin

hai

ling

dist

ance

of 2

020

–

Brita

in n

ow r

esem

bles

one

gre

at s

easi

de t

own.

M

ore

and

mor

e U

K c

omm

uniti

es –

eve

n ci

ties

– co

nsis

t of

old

er

peop

le, n

eedi

ng s

ervi

ces

mor

e th

an c

onsu

mer

goo

ds.

The

loca

l ec

onom

y pr

ovid

es t

he s

ervi

ces,

and

whi

le g

oods

are

im

porte

d, c

onsu

mer

s no

w b

uy f

or d

urab

ility

and

exte

nded

us

e lif

e.

As t

radi

tiona

l in

dust

ries

decl

ined

, yo

ung

wor

kers

st

arte

d em

igra

ting

and

look

ing

else

whe

re f

or e

mpl

oym

ent.

With

fe

wer

pe

ople

su

ppor

ting

mor

e el

derly

an

d la

rge

corp

orat

ions

rel

ocat

ing

to A

sia,

the

eco

nom

y co

ntra

cted

. En

trepr

eneu

rial

activ

ities

ar

e sm

alle

r in

sc

ope;

m

ore

busi

ness

in

itiat

ives

ar

e lo

cal,

resu

lting

in

le

ss

wea

lth

gene

ratio

n na

tiona

lly.

The

gap

betw

een

‘hav

es’

and

‘hav

e-no

ts’

has

wid

ened

. So

ciet

y as

a

who

le

has

look

ed

for

way

s to

re

-tren

ch.

Incr

easi

ngly

, pe

ople

are

cho

osin

g to

rej

ect

cons

umer

ism

in

favo

ur o

f a

shift

tow

ards

inc

reas

ed s

elf-s

uffic

ienc

y. T

hose

w

ho

rem

ain

form

, in

on

e se

nse,

m

ore

tight

ly

knit

com

mun

ities

, w

hich

are

mor

e fo

cuse

d on

sel

f-rel

ianc

e th

an

the

com

mun

ities

of 2

007.

W

hile

this

cer

tain

ly m

eans

a g

ain

for

sust

aina

bilit

y, i

t is

mor

e th

e se

lf-re

lianc

e of

the

war

ga

rden

tha

n th

e ec

o-tri

be.

Non

ethe

less

, th

e av

alan

che

of

data

con

firm

ing

glob

al w

arm

ing

did

acce

lera

te th

e gr

owth

of

envi

ronm

enta

l val

ues,

as

did

soci

al a

nd b

usin

ess

stra

tegi

es

pion

eere

d by

cha

nge

orga

nisa

tions

suc

h as

Clin

ton’

s G

loba

l In

itiat

ives

in 2

006.

Peop

le n

ow t

ake

grea

ter

resp

onsi

bilit

y fo

r th

eir

own

wel

l-be

ing

and

for

the

wel

l-bei

ng o

f th

eir

envi

ronm

ent.

Wha

t bo

des

wel

l for

a fu

ture

revi

talis

atio

n of

UK

com

petit

iven

ess

is

a na

tiona

l moo

d of

adv

entu

re:

Brito

ns a

re re

spon

ding

to th

e cu

rren

t ch

alle

nges

with

res

ilienc

e an

d cr

eativ

ity,

wor

king

to

geth

er t

o in

nova

te a

nd c

reat

e ne

w b

usin

esse

s an

d re

new

th

eir c

omm

uniti

es.

Rec

ent H

isto

ry (2

007

– 20

17)

2007

: O

utso

urci

ng w

as a

sen

sitiv

e is

sue

even

bef

ore

the

mille

nniu

m,

but

prim

arily

for

man

ufac

turin

g.

Even

in 2

007,

m

any

inno

vativ

e in

dust

ries

wer

e m

ovin

g to

che

aper

loca

les.

O

ther

s w

ere

relo

catin

g th

eir

rese

arch

an

d de

velo

pmen

t ce

ntre

s to

th

e BR

IC

(Bra

zil,

Rus

sia,

In

dia

and

Chi

na)

coun

tries

. Th

is s

trate

gy o

ffere

d th

e co

mpe

titiv

e ad

vant

age

of a

hig

hly

educ

ated

wor

kfor

ce a

vaila

ble

at a

sig

nific

ant c

ost

savi

ngs,

giv

en c

urre

ncy

and

cost

of l

ivin

g di

ffere

nces

. It

also

pu

t pr

oduc

tion

clos

er t

o th

e C

hine

se c

onsu

mer

. W

ith t

he

grow

th o

f di

stan

ce l

earn

ing,

edu

catio

n ce

ntre

s be

gan

a si

mila

r re

loca

tion.

In

crea

sing

ly t

he b

est

engi

neer

ing

and

scie

nce

scho

ols

cam

e to

be

in A

sia,

as

dem

and

for

scie

nce

and

tech

nolo

gy d

egre

es in

the

UK

ero

ded.

ii

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

79

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

As t

he d

ecad

e pr

ogre

ssed

, it

beca

me

clea

r U

K b

usin

esse

s ha

d in

suffi

cien

tly

addr

esse

d th

e m

arke

t op

portu

nitie

s em

ergi

ng in

Asi

a.

Whi

le B

ritis

h bu

sine

sses

wer

e st

rong

in

man

y se

ctor

s,

othe

r bu

sine

sses

w

ere

sim

ply

bette

r. Em

ergi

ng e

cono

mie

s pr

oduc

ed b

asic

con

sum

er g

oods

mor

e ch

eapl

y; S

outh

Kor

ea a

nd I

ndia

wer

e sh

owin

g si

gns

of

outp

erfo

rmin

g th

e U

K i

n bo

th i

nfor

mat

ion

hard

war

e an

d so

ftwar

e pr

oduc

tion.

2009

: In

a b

id to

incr

ease

bot

h ef

ficie

ncy

and

sust

aina

bilit

y,

Gov

ernm

ent

effo

rts

to

push

co

nser

vatio

n an

d re

cycl

ing

redo

uble

d.

The

25%

rec

yclin

g ta

rget

was

hit

early

, in

2009

. Pu

blic

op

inio

n in

crea

sing

ly

supp

orte

d su

stai

nabi

lity

initi

ativ

es, b

ut th

e gr

owin

g se

lf-in

tere

st in

per

sona

l wel

l-bei

ng

and

a co

mfo

rtabl

e en

viro

nmen

t se

emed

to

er

ode

entre

pren

euria

l ac

tiviti

es i

n 20

th ce

ntur

y in

dust

ries.

Pu

blic

co

ncer

n ab

out

clim

ate

chan

ge h

it a

new

hig

h w

ith B

ritai

n’s

first

cas

es o

f Wes

t Nile

Viru

s.

The

gove

rnm

ent d

id r

espo

nd

effe

ctiv

ely

to th

e su

bseq

uent

clu

ster

of i

nfec

tions

, and

ther

e w

ere

no

fata

litie

s,

but

the

cris

is

did

dam

age

publ

ic

conf

iden

ce in

thei

r day

-to-d

ay e

nviro

nmen

t as

heal

thy.

2011

: By

the

2011

Par

liam

enta

ry e

lect

ions

, mor

e an

d m

ore

spec

ial

inte

rest

par

ties

wer

e vy

ing

for

seat

s.

The

polit

ical

he

at

gene

rate

d de

mon

stra

tions

, ra

ce

riots

an

d ci

vil

diso

bedi

ence

. Sp

ecia

l in

tere

st g

roup

s lo

bbie

d to

exp

and

lifes

tyle

ph

arm

aceu

tical

s as

w

ell,

crea

ting

our

mod

ern

‘sup

er-a

thle

tes’

with

ove

r th

e co

unte

r hu

man

per

form

ance

en

hanc

emen

t re

gim

es.

In a

sur

pris

e m

ove

for

the

usua

lly

cons

erva

tive

Inte

rnat

iona

l Oly

mpi

c C

omm

ittee

, the

pro

posa

l fo

r th

e fir

st

Hum

an

Perfo

rman

ce

Enha

nced

O

lym

pics

, m

irror

ing

the

Para

lym

pics

, was

pas

sed.

2013

: Th

e he

at g

ener

ated

by

the

2011

ele

ctio

n sm

ould

ers

on, s

inge

ing

UK

and

Eur

opea

n bu

sine

ss c

omm

uniti

es.

The

poun

d fe

ll,

impo

rts

soar

ed

and

expo

rts

suffe

red.

Th

e sp

ectre

of s

tagf

latio

n, lo

ng th

ough

t to

have

bee

n er

adic

ated

, lo

omed

onc

e m

ore

as th

e ec

onom

y co

ntra

cted

, with

onl

y th

e ec

onom

ic s

ucce

ss o

f th

e O

lym

pics

kee

ping

tha

t pa

rticu

lar

drag

on a

t ba

y.

Anti-

regu

lato

ry f

eelin

gs i

n bu

sine

ss a

nd

indu

stria

l sec

tors

sur

ged.

Sp

ecia

l int

eres

t lo

bbyi

ng f

or t

he

UK

to p

ull o

ut o

f the

EU

inte

nsifi

ed.

On

a po

sitiv

e no

te, t

he

Oly

mpi

cs a

lso

spur

red

a re

surg

ence

of

inte

rest

in

spor

ts,

fitne

ss, a

nd p

hysi

cal p

ursu

its.

Link

ed w

ith th

e gr

owin

g fo

cus

on p

erso

nal

wel

lnes

s, t

his

lifes

tyle

shi

ft pu

t pa

id t

o th

e ob

esity

epi

dem

ic.

2015

: D

uty

on b

iofu

els

was

rem

oved

as

publ

ic c

once

rn o

n cl

imat

e ch

ange

con

tinue

d to

spi

ral

– an

d in

a r

elat

ed

deve

lopm

ent,

Brita

in’s

env

ironm

enta

l cam

paig

ners

won

thei

r fir

st s

eats

in

Parli

amen

t. M

ore

hots

pots

eru

pted

on

the

glob

al s

tage

; in

res

pons

e to

the

soc

ial

disl

ocat

ion

and

conf

lict

in t

he C

auca

sus,

cal

ls g

rew

for

the

int

rodu

ctio

n of

co

mpu

lsor

y on

e-ye

ar p

ublic

ser

vice

for

you

ng a

dults

, in

ei

ther

a m

ilitar

y su

ppor

t or h

uman

itaria

n ca

paci

ty.

2017

: Th

e U

K b

egin

s its

mov

e in

to th

e ex

perie

nce

econ

omy

with

a f

ocus

on

the

tech

nolo

gies

and

act

iviti

es o

f w

elln

ess.

Br

itish

in

vent

ors

crea

te

brea

kthr

ough

s in

em

bedd

ed

com

putin

g (h

uman

-mac

hine

in

terfa

ce)

and

augm

ente

d co

gniti

on; b

ioni

c he

art c

ompo

nent

s; a

nd h

uman

per

form

ance

en

hanc

emen

t bi

oche

mic

als.

Br

itish

des

igne

rs le

vera

ge t

he

UK’

s di

vers

e cu

ltura

l her

itage

and

env

ironm

enta

l ric

hnes

s in

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

a gr

een

appr

oach

to

sust

aina

bilit

y an

d he

alth

: ae

sthe

tic

nece

ssity

of

su

stai

nabl

e liv

ing.

Th

e cu

rrent

ec

onom

ic

asce

ticis

m.

cons

train

ts m

erel

y un

derli

ne th

at.

In-D

epth

Exp

lora

tion

Def

ine:

wha

t con

cept

s, id

eas,

par

adig

ms,

and

val

ues

defin

e th

is w

orld

?

Rel

ate:

ho

w d

o pe

ople

rel

ate

to e

ach

othe

r –

wha

t are

the

soci

al

stru

ctur

es

and

rela

tions

hips

th

at

link

peop

le

and

orga

nisa

tions

?

Peop

le f

ocus

mor

e on

qua

lity

of li

fe, o

n bo

th in

divi

dual

and

en

viro

nmen

tal l

evel

s. A

chie

ving

and

mai

ntai

ning

that

qua

lity

is w

idel

y co

nsid

ered

a m

atte

r of

per

sona

l res

pons

ibilit

y; th

e ch

alle

nge

is a

t onc

e to

o pe

rson

al a

nd lo

cal,

and

too

com

plex

an

d pe

rvas

ive

for

gove

rnm

ents

to

ad

dres

s ef

fect

ivel

y.

Rat

her

than

rel

ying

on

the

gove

rnm

ent

as t

heir

trust

ed

agen

t, in

divi

dual

s re

ly o

n th

emse

lves

.iii Bu

t not

them

selv

es

alon

e;

peop

le h

ave

inte

rnal

ised

the

par

adig

ms

of s

elf-

orga

nisi

ng c

ompl

exity

and

ope

n so

urce

com

mun

ities

fro

m

21st

ce

ntur

y sc

ienc

e an

d so

ftwar

e.

Org

anis

ing

supp

ort

grou

ps,

polit

ical

act

ion

grou

ps,

and

nece

ssar

y re

sour

ces

– w

heth

er lo

cally

, nat

iona

lly, o

r glo

bally

– is

sim

ple

refle

x.

And

it’s

a ne

cess

ary

refle

x, a

s to

o m

any

peop

le s

cram

ble

to

mak

e en

ds

mee

t. Th

e sc

arci

ty

min

dset

fu

sed

with

en

viro

nmen

tal c

once

rns

in a

bac

klas

h ag

ains

t the

thro

waw

ay

cons

umer

cul

ture

. Pe

ople

are

mak

ing

do w

ith “

redu

ce,

re-

use,

rec

ycle

, ” a

wor

ldvi

ew m

ade

effic

ient

and

eve

n so

ciab

le

with

eBa

y an

d Fr

eecy

cle.

It’

s th

e ne

w w

ar g

arde

n in

the

gl

obal

eco

nom

ic a

nd e

nviro

nmen

tal b

attle

zon

e. T

his

shift

is

suffi

cien

tly

perv

asiv

e th

at

plan

ned

obso

lesc

ence

m

ay

beco

me

illega

l by

2020

, not

mer

ely

a ta

rget

of c

onsu

mer

ire.

Ev

ery

new

st

ream

of

en

viro

nmen

tal

data

su

ppor

ts

the

Gov

ernm

ent r

esou

rces

are

pre

ssur

ed b

y ag

eing

, of b

oth

the

popu

lace

and

the

infra

stru

ctur

e. T

axes

hav

e ris

en in

the

last

de

cade

, bu

t w

ith a

sla

ck e

cono

my,

the

rev

enue

pie

has

n’t

kept

pac

e w

ith c

rises

. Bo

th n

atio

nal

agen

cies

and

loc

al

auth

oriti

es

stru

ggle

to

re

prio

ritis

e am

ong

equa

lly

criti

cal

need

s.

Res

earc

h an

d de

velo

pmen

t fu

nds

wer

e sh

ifted

to

prop

up

pens

ion

fund

s; e

duca

tiona

l and

you

th p

rogr

ams

lost

ou

t to

sen

ior

care

. An

inc

reas

ed s

ense

of

pers

onal

and

co

mm

unity

re

spon

sibi

lity

repl

aced

th

e ‘a

nti-h

oody

’ an

d AS

BO c

ampa

igns

of

ten

year

s ag

o w

ith a

tec

hnol

ogic

ally

-en

hanc

ed,

soci

ally

ne

twor

ked

vers

ion

of

‘nei

ghbo

urho

od

wat

ch’.

Whi

le a

sav

ing

for

gove

rnm

ent,

the

dow

nsid

e is

un

equa

l co

mm

unity

sec

urity

, as

wea

lthie

r ne

ighb

ourh

oods

hi

re p

rivat

e se

curit

y co

mpa

nies

, as

wel

l as

a d

isqu

ietin

g em

erge

nce

of v

igila

ntis

m.

The

latte

r ha

s al

so c

ontri

bute

d to

th

e in

crea

se

in

fring

e po

litic

al

grou

ps

capt

urin

g Pa

rliam

enta

ry s

eats

.

Glo

bal

rela

tions

hips

hav

e re

-focu

ssed

: Th

e Pa

cific

Era

da

wne

d in

the

2010

s. I

ndia

, Chi

na, S

outh

Kor

ea, S

inga

pore

an

d ot

her

Asia

n co

untri

es a

re t

he n

ew g

ravi

ty w

ells

of

the

glob

al e

cono

my,

and

of

glob

al g

eopo

litic

s as

wel

l. Br

itish

bu

sine

sses

are

stil

l pla

ying

cat

ch-u

p in

Asi

an m

arke

ts v

is-à

-vi

s ot

her W

este

rn e

cono

mie

s, a

fter s

tarti

ng to

o sl

owly

off

the

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

80

81

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

bloc

k.

In 2

017

the

UK

is n

ot g

loba

lly c

ompe

titiv

e ei

ther

in

the

indu

stria

l, se

rvic

e,

or

info

rmat

ion

sect

ors.

Br

itain

’s

econ

omic

re

viva

l is

, in

stea

d,

bein

g bu

ilt

by

expe

rienc

e ec

onom

y en

trepr

eneu

rs

focu

sed

on

min

d/bo

dy/s

pirit

pr

oduc

ts

and

serv

ices

fo

r th

e hi

gh-te

ch,

high

-touc

h co

nsum

ers

of 2

020.

Brita

in’s

age

ing

soci

ety

is a

n un

bala

nced

soc

iety

. Th

e yo

unge

r ge

nera

tion

are

serfs

to th

eir

seni

ors,

not

onl

y in

tax

supp

ort,

but

in d

irect

inc

ome

cont

ribut

ions

as

wel

l. In

the

cu

rren

t cl

imat

e of

eco

nom

ic u

ncer

tain

ty,

youn

g ad

ults

hea

d in

to m

atur

ity s

addl

ed w

ith e

duca

tiona

l and

con

sum

er d

ebt.

And

not

mer

ely

finan

cial

deb

ts:

man

y ca

rry a

‘he

alth

deb

t’ ge

nera

ted

by t

he s

tress

of

carin

g fo

r th

eir

pare

nts

and

wor

king

mul

tiple

job

s to

cov

er e

xpen

ses.

Th

e em

ergi

ng

yout

h dr

ain

to A

sia

com

es a

s no

sur

pris

e, a

s yo

ung

wor

kers

op

t fo

r hi

gher

pay

ing

jobs

ove

rsea

s.

It ta

kes

them

aw

ay

from

the

ir fa

milie

s, b

ut t

hey

ratio

nalis

e th

at t

he e

nhan

ced

finan

cial

sup

port

they

can

offe

r bal

ance

s th

eir a

bsen

ce.

With

the

you

th d

rain

tak

ing

a si

gnifi

cant

per

cent

age

of t

he

skille

d un

der-

forti

es o

vers

eas,

mor

e O

APs

are

orga

nisi

ng

self-

help

an

d su

ppor

t ne

twor

ks.

Elde

r vo

lunt

eeris

m

is

grow

ing,

whi

ch h

as t

he d

oubl

e be

nefit

of

prov

idin

g lo

cal

com

mun

ities

a v

olun

teer

poo

l of

exp

erie

nced

lab

our,

and

also

kee

ping

the

elde

rly a

ctiv

e an

d so

cial

ly e

ngag

ed.

In s

hort,

in

the

last

dec

ade

the

Briti

sh f

amily

has

bot

h im

plod

ed a

nd e

xplo

ded.

Ta

king

per

sona

l res

pons

ibilit

y fo

r th

e w

ell-b

eing

of

thei

r pa

rent

s an

d re

lativ

es h

as p

ushe

d so

me

fam

ilies

into

mor

e co

hesi

ve,

clos

e-kn

it st

ruct

ures

that

ar

e in

turn

tied

mor

e cl

osel

y in

to lo

cal s

ocia

l and

com

mun

ity

netw

orks

. O

n th

e ot

her

hand

, so

me

fam

ilies

have

‘e

xplo

ded’

, go

ing

glob

al,

with

you

nger

mem

bers

tra

ckin

g ec

onom

ic

hots

pots

in

tern

atio

nally

. Ev

en

thes

e fa

milie

s,

how

ever

, re

mai

n vi

rtual

ly

tight

-kni

t, w

ith

fam

ily

intra

nets

fe

atur

ing

priv

ate

web

-cam

s an

d am

bien

t he

alth

se

nsor

s en

ablin

g ki

ds to

kee

p a

cons

tant

eye

on

thei

r pa

rent

s’ w

ell-

bein

g –

and

vice

ver

sa.

Con

nect

: ho

w

do

we

conn

ect

with

ea

ch

othe

r -

wha

t te

chno

logi

es c

onne

ct p

eopl

e, p

lace

s, a

nd th

ings

?

Littl

e di

stin

ctio

n ex

ists

now

bet

wee

n m

edia

and

per

sona

l co

mm

unic

atio

ns, b

etw

een

a ce

ll ph

one,

an

Inte

rnet

term

inal

, an

d a

hom

e th

eatre

. Th

e pe

rvas

ive

glob

al w

ifi m

esh

of

ubiq

uito

us c

ompu

ting

mea

ns t

hat

one

Chi

nese

sch

oolg

irl’s

vi

deob

log

mas

h up

of

liv

e co

ncer

t fo

otag

e,

orig

inal

an

imat

ion,

and

cel

l-pho

ne-c

aptu

red

com

men

tary

is

a U

K

view

er’s

ind

ie d

ocum

enta

ry.

Expa

t w

orke

rs o

vers

eas

can

catc

h th

e gl

obal

and

Mum

bai

even

ing

new

s ro

undu

p ov

er

dinn

er, s

eam

less

ly in

terc

ut w

ith li

ve w

ebca

m fo

otag

e of

Mum

an

d G

rand

ma

havi

ng lu

nch

in th

e ga

rden

in B

uxto

n.

Che

ap,

wid

ely

avai

labl

e se

nsor

tag

s an

d bu

ttons

are

link

ed

to w

ifi n

etw

orks

. H

ome

heal

th m

onito

ring

– yo

ur b

ody

and

your

life

as

a bi

osci

ence

pro

ject

– i

s be

com

ing

com

mon

. Th

e gr

owth

in h

ome

heal

th te

lem

edic

ine

has

been

a b

oon

for

thos

e w

ho c

an a

fford

the

sys

tem

. It

redu

ces

cost

s an

d in

crea

ses

the

sens

e of

sec

urity

for

the

eld

erly

wis

hing

to

exte

nd t

heir

inde

pend

ence

. Th

ese

syst

ems

also

pro

vide

ho

me

envi

ronm

enta

l te

lem

onito

ring,

ena

blin

g ho

meo

wne

rs

to m

onito

r not

just

env

ironm

enta

l con

ditio

ns –

air

qual

ity a

nd

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

82

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

cont

amin

atio

n, w

ater

qua

lity,

loc

al a

llerg

en c

ount

, an

d U

V

cond

ition

s –

but a

lso

leve

ls o

f res

ourc

e us

e in

thei

r ho

mes

. H

omeo

wne

rs c

an m

icro

-man

age

thei

r eco

logi

cal f

ootp

rint o

n a

daily

, hou

rly, o

r min

ute-

by-m

inut

e ba

sis.

The

sam

e se

nsor

ta

gs

have

in

crea

sed

the

sens

e of

co

mm

unity

sec

urity

, as

mor

e ne

ighb

ourh

oods

use

the

m t

o m

onito

r su

spec

ted

loca

l ne

’er-

do-w

ells

. In

evita

bly,

th

is

ASBO

rep

lace

men

t has

spa

wne

d an

und

ergr

ound

mar

ket i

n se

nsor

tag

hack

ing.

Cre

ate:

wha

t ar

e th

e pr

oces

ses

and

tech

nolo

gies

thr

ough

w

hich

we

crea

te g

oods

and

ser

vice

s?

The

post

-rece

ssio

n ec

onom

y of

201

7 fe

atur

es f

ewer

job

s an

d hi

gher

un

empl

oym

ent.

Labo

ur

is s

hifti

ng i

nto

new

se

ctor

s –

and

emig

ratin

g to

the

Asia

n ec

onom

ic n

exus

. Th

is

crea

tes

a vi

ciou

s ci

rcle

; as

Brit

ish

com

pani

es l

ose

skille

d la

bour

loc

ally

, th

ey o

utso

urce

inno

vatio

n an

d pr

oduc

tion

to

Asia

as

wel

l. Th

e m

ore

com

pani

es lo

cate

thei

r exc

iting

jobs

ov

erse

as,

the

mor

e sk

illed

wor

kers

lo

ok

over

seas

fo

r po

sitio

ns

– w

here

th

ey

com

pete

ag

ains

t of

ten

bette

r-ed

ucat

ed fo

reig

n w

orke

rs.

Briti

sh

entre

pren

eurs

ha

ve

turn

ed

to

the

expe

rienc

e ec

onom

y to

rev

italis

e gr

owth

. N

ew v

entu

res

com

bine

the

st

reng

ths

of

thos

e hi

stor

ical

re

sour

ces

that

su

ppor

t U

K

tour

ism

– a

nd U

K fi

lm a

nd th

eatre

– w

ith B

ritai

n’s

aest

hetic

st

reng

ths

in a

rts a

nd d

esig

n.

Smal

l bus

ines

s ow

ners

hav

e fo

cuss

ed

on

the

new

gr

owth

m

arke

t fo

r gr

een

min

d/bo

dy/s

pirit

pro

duct

s, c

ater

ing

to th

e he

ight

ened

inte

rest

in p

erso

nal

wel

lnes

s.

Ret

reat

s, s

pa b

reak

s, a

nd ‘

who

le

pers

on’

life

man

agem

ent

clas

ses

inte

grat

e no

t on

ly e

co-

frien

dly

heal

th p

rodu

cts,

but

als

o re

gion

al o

rgan

ic s

peci

alty

fo

ods.

Lo

cally

uni

que

and

sust

aina

ble

‘neo

-cra

fts’

fit w

ell

with

tou

rism

and

the

cul

ture

tra

de.

As l

ocal

pro

duct

ion

cont

ribut

es to

the

ir in

trins

ic v

alue

, th

ese

busi

ness

es c

anno

t by

de

finiti

on

be

outs

ourc

ed.

Thes

e em

ergi

ng

sign

s of

ec

onom

ic r

evita

lisat

ion

are

prom

isin

g, b

ut t

he l

ocal

eco

-w

elln

ess

sect

or i

s lim

ited

by i

ts s

treng

th a

s a

com

mun

ity-

base

d ac

tivity

. It

rem

ains

too

smal

l to

repl

ace

the

indu

stria

l se

ctor

inco

me

Brita

in h

as lo

st.

Larg

er i

nitia

tives

are

em

ergi

ng w

here

gre

en r

espo

nsib

ility

links

to h

igh

tech

nolo

gy.

UK

ven

ture

cap

ital h

as s

uppo

rted

loca

l de

sign

of

‘sm

art

envi

ronm

ent’

who

le h

ealth

sys

tem

s.

Thes

e ap

ply

self-

orga

nisi

ng s

yste

m d

esig

ns t

o pe

rvas

ive

sens

or n

etw

orks

tha

t lin

k ho

me

heal

th m

onito

ring

syst

ems

with

mob

ile h

eart/

stre

ss m

onito

rs a

nd w

ork

envi

ronm

ent

mon

itors

. Th

is im

mer

sive

‘wel

lnes

s w

eb’ a

llow

s em

ploy

ees

and

smal

l bu

sine

sses

to

wor

k to

geth

er t

o en

sure

wor

ker

heal

th fr

om h

ome

to o

ffice

and

bac

k ag

ain.

Con

sum

e: h

ow d

o w

e co

nsum

e go

ods

and

serv

ices

– h

ow

do w

e ac

quire

and

use

them

?

Brito

ns a

re c

onsu

min

g le

ss p

er p

erso

n w

ith e

ach

pass

ing

year

. 20

17 m

ay g

o on

rec

ord

as t

he y

ear

the

thro

waw

ay

cultu

re e

nded

. Pe

ople

try

to

mak

e th

e m

ost

of a

ll th

eir

belo

ngin

gs, e

ncou

ragi

ng m

anuf

actu

rers

to s

tress

eas

y re

pair

and

the

hard

war

e eq

uiva

lent

of ‘

mas

h up

s’ -

mix

and

mat

ch

appl

ianc

e co

mpo

nent

s.

This

tre

nd h

as m

ade

eBay

and

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

83

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

Free

cycl

e m

ore

popu

lar

than

m

any

high

st

reet

ch

ains

. Pe

ople

ar

e al

so

liter

ally

co

nsum

ing

less

: th

e ob

esity

ep

idem

ic h

as p

eake

d.

The

imm

ersi

ve m

edia

exp

osur

e to

th

e ex

hila

ratio

n of

fitn

ess

exem

plifi

ed b

y O

lym

pic

athl

etes

he

lped

. In

ad

ditio

n,

the

new

H

PE

Oly

mpi

cs

publ

icly

de

mon

stra

ted

the

hum

an p

erfo

rman

ce in

nova

tions

tha

t ca

n ai

d w

illpow

er a

lone

in h

elpi

ng in

divi

dual

s ac

hiev

e th

at ‘n

ew

svel

te y

ou’.

Fina

lly,

risin

g en

viro

nmen

tal a

war

enes

s m

ade

cons

umer

s no

t onl

y m

ore

likel

y to

ask

wha

t was

in fo

od, b

ut

also

to a

sk w

hat t

he e

nviro

nmen

tal a

nd s

ocia

l con

sequ

ence

s of

fo

od

prod

uctio

n w

ere.

Th

e O

xfam

‘c

ompa

re

thes

e di

nner

s’ a

d ca

mpa

ign

for

thei

r co

ntin

uing

wor

k in

fam

ine-

pron

e Af

rican

reg

ions

res

onat

ed w

ith m

any,

esp

ecia

lly a

fter

Sir

Jam

ie O

liver

’s r

ivet

ing

spec

ial b

road

cast

und

erlin

ing

the

prob

lem

.

Wat

er

shor

tage

s ar

e m

uch

less

co

mm

on.

Enha

nced

en

viro

nmen

tal

awar

enes

s m

eans

gr

eate

r ca

re

in

wat

er

usag

e at

the

tap

. It

also

pro

duce

d a

spec

ial i

nter

est

grou

p th

at

pres

sure

d th

e go

vern

men

t to

rai

se

fines

fo

r w

ater

ut

ilitie

s th

at

allo

wed

m

ore

than

5%

sy

stem

le

akag

e to

co

ntin

ue m

ore

than

thre

e m

onth

s.

Pars

imon

y is

all

in b

asic

re

sour

ce

use.

C

onsu

mer

s ar

e al

so

supp

ortin

g a

new

sc

hem

e to

tap

the

mor

e th

an 3

00 y

ears

’ wor

th o

f co

al s

till

unde

rgro

und

via

gasi

ficat

ion,

whi

ch d

oes

not r

equi

re m

iner

s.

Biof

uels

ha

ve

seen

ex

plos

ive

grow

th

sinc

e th

e ca

taly

st

inno

vatio

ns

earli

er

in

the

deca

de;

alte

rnat

ive

fuel

s ar

e di

spla

cing

pet

rol i

n pe

rson

al tr

ansp

ort.

Focu

s on

the

Cha

ngin

g W

orkp

lace

Brita

in h

as fe

wer

larg

e in

dust

ries

and

larg

e co

rpor

atio

ns th

at

stan

dard

ise

offic

e pr

actic

es a

nd e

nviro

nmen

ts t

hrou

ghou

t th

eir

bran

ches

. Th

e pr

olife

ratio

n of

sm

all b

usin

esse

s, lo

cal

busi

ness

es, a

nd a

t-hom

e bu

sine

sses

cre

ates

wid

ely

vary

ing

wor

k en

viro

nmen

ts.

The

line

betw

een

wor

k an

d ho

me

cont

inue

s to

er

ode.

Th

e in

crea

sed

valu

e pl

aced

on

ac

hiev

ing

wor

k/lif

e ba

lanc

e is

cou

nter

ed b

y la

bour

nee

ds

and

man

y pe

ople

’s n

eed

to w

ork

two

jobs

, or

one

job

in

conj

unct

ion

with

eld

er c

are

or s

elf-s

uffic

ienc

y ta

sks.

Wor

k at

ho

me

allo

ws

mor

e se

amle

ss in

tegr

atio

n of

eld

er c

are,

but

it

also

low

ers

prod

uctiv

ity d

ue to

the

dist

ract

ion

quot

ient

.

One

em

ergi

ng

reas

on

for

optim

ism

, ho

wev

er,

is

the

incr

easi

ng t

rend

for

sm

all b

usin

esse

s to

sha

re o

ffice

spa

ce

and

supp

ort

staf

f, le

vera

ging

dy

nam

ical

ly

adm

inis

tere

d re

sour

ces

to f

unct

ion

mor

e ef

ficie

ntly

and

par

sim

onio

usly

.iv

Impl

emen

ting

‘gre

en

offic

e’

desi

gn

is

also

ea

sier

w

hen

reso

urce

s ar

e sh

ared

. Le

ss w

aste

and

low

er o

pera

ting

cost

s al

low

the

se o

ffice

coo

pera

tives

to in

vest

mor

e in

cre

atin

g a

heal

thy

wor

kpla

ce e

nviro

nmen

t.

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y

With

reg

ard

to h

ealth

and

saf

ety,

fear

and

unc

erta

inty

hav

e dr

iven

peo

ple

to th

ink,

“If I

don

’t do

it fo

r mys

elf,

no-o

ne e

lse

will

do i

t fo

r m

e. ”

It’s

a br

ave

new

wor

ld o

f pe

rson

al

resp

onsi

bilit

y, d

riven

as

muc

h by

gal

lopi

ng t

echn

olog

ical

pr

ogre

ss

as

from

an

y in

crea

se

in

indi

vidu

al

or

soci

al

enlig

hten

men

t. D

etec

tion

and

prev

entio

n of

ill-h

ealth

cau

sal

Thes

e Sc

enar

ios

wer

e pr

oduc

ed b

y In

finite

Fut

ures

wor

king

with

SA

MI C

onsu

lting

and

the

Hea

lth a

nd S

afet

y La

bora

tory

. The

y ar

e in

tend

ed to

stim

ulat

e th

ough

t and

are

in n

o w

ay p

redi

ctio

ns o

f the

futu

re. T

hey

do n

ot re

pres

ent H

SE

vie

ws

on h

ow th

e fu

ture

may

dev

elop

.

84

HS

E S

cena

rios

Pro

ject

: A

Virt

ue o

f Nec

essi

ty

fact

ors

is th

e ke

y. H

ealth

age

ncie

s ar

e m

ovin

g in

to th

e ro

les

of c

oach

es a

nd a

dvis

ors.

Th

ey p

rovi

de r

esou

rces

tha

t en

able

peo

ple

to ta

ke r

espo

nsib

ility

for

thei

r ow

n w

ell-b

eing

m

ore

effe

ctiv

ely.

Imm

ersi

ve m

onito

ring

syst

ems

and

‘wel

lnes

s w

ebs’

allo

w

mor

e ef

ficie

nt m

onito

ring

of h

ealth

and

stre

ss i

ndic

ator

s th

roug

hout

an

indi

vidu

al’s

day

. Bu

sine

sses

and

em

ploy

ees

who

ca

n af

ford

th

e sy

stem

fin

d th

at

it no

t on

ly

aids

pr

oduc

tivity

, but

als

o re

duce

s em

ploy

ee h

ealth

cos

ts.

As a

re

sult,

the

bel

l cu

rve

of w

orkp

lace

hea

lth a

nd s

afet

y ha

s w

iden

ed a

nd f

latte

ned;

we

see

mor

e ex

empl

ary

prac

tices

, bu

t al

so m

ore

repo

rts o

f sm

all b

usin

esse

s at

tem

ptin

g to

fly

un

der t

he re

gula

tory

rada

r to

save

cos

ts.

Man

y bu

sine

sses

hav

e si

mpl

y cu

t an

d ru

n.

Rec

essi

on-

indu

ced

pres

sure

s on

pro

fit m

argi

ns in

crea

sed

the

offs

horin

g of

inn

ovat

ion,

R&D

, an

d pr

oduc

tion

by t

hose

who

cou

ld

affo

rd

it.

This

w

as

wel

com

ed

by

som

e en

viro

nmen

tal

cam

paig

n gr

oups

, th

ough

by

no m

eans

all,

as

a m

eans

of

prot

ectin

g Br

itain

’s n

atur

al e

nviro

nmen

t fro

m e

xper

imen

tal o

r in

dust

rial d

isas

ters

. Th

e sl

uggi

sh e

cono

my

did

crea

te s

ome

barg

ains

for

over

seas

buy

ers,

with

Brit

ish

com

pani

es g

oing

ch

eapl

y.

How

ever

, th

eir

new

ove

rsea

s ow

ners

ten

ded

to

brin

g th

eir

own

attit

udes

and

app

roac

hes

to h

ealth

and

sa

fety

issu

es.

In s

ome

sect

ors

this

mat

tere

d lit

tle; i

n ot

hers

, a

lot.

Win

ners

and

Los

ers

The

win

ners

in 2

017

are

the

self-

suffi

cien

t, hi

gh-te

ch, g

reen

m

icro

-ene

rgy

prod

ucer

s an

d co

nsum

ers

in th

e w

ealth

ier r

ural

co

mm

uniti

es.

Land

owne

rs

in

thos

e co

mm

uniti

es

have

be

nefit

ed f

rom

the

incr

ease

d de

man

d fo

r la

nd f

or t

he s

elf-

suffi

cien

t life

styl

e. P

ensi

oner

s w

ho c

an a

fford

the

supp

ortiv

e te

chno

logy

are

bet

ter o

ff, a

s ar

e th

ose

who

bel

ong

to s

uppo

rt ne

twor

ks o

r ha

ve e

ither

suc

cess

ful

or d

evot

ed c

hild

ren

on

who

m

they

ca

n re

ly.

Priv

ate

secu

rity

com

pani

es

are

succ

eedi

ng,

as a

re s

mal

l bu

sine

sses

dev

elop

ing

wel

lnes

s pr

oduc

ts o

r ser

vice

s, e

spec

ially

thos

e th

at a

re lo

cally

uni

que.

D

igita

l m

edia

and

exp

erie

nce

econ

omy

entre

pren

eurs

are

be

ginn

ing

to r

e-es

tabl

ish

a na

me

for

Briti

sh d

esig

n.

In

polit

ics,

pro

porti

onal

rep

rese

ntat

ion

has

crea

ted

a liv

ely,

if

fragm

ente

d ar

ena

for

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APPENDIX 3: SHORT FORM SCENARIOS

The short form or workshop scenarios are brief, illustrated and easy to read in five or ten minutes; they are designed for use in workshops.

87

Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace

Breakout Groups

The Digital Rose Gardenhealth and safety in the changing workplace

Leading article – Global Financial Tribune:

WiMax immersive edition – 1 December 2017

It’s official. Yesterday’s report from Work, Life and World tells us so. The roaring 1920s are back. And where do we go to taste the energy and innovation of those boom years of old? Well, believe it or not, to work.

The world of work is very different now from even five years ago. Technologies have advanced more in the last ten years than in the previous one hundred. Pervasive computing, immersive communications, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies, and new materials are transforming production, offices, homes, our relationships, even ourselves. We are all explorers now: and we’ll take a little risk along the way. As for work-life balance, what about it? To quote last year’s Productivity Consortium’s ad campaign ‘Work? Life? It’s all living!’

We work ‘glocally’ – in small, high tech outfits doing global business – so where we work barely matters at all. Why should it when immersive communications – witness last week’s videophone sunglasses launch – can take you anywhere in the world in an instant? So we work at home or rent a desk at the neighbourhood office down the road. ‘Factories’ are cleaner, greener, self-monitoring, self-repairing.

Yes, it’s great to be at work as we near the roaring 2020s. Or it is if you’re one of the 50% working in the brave, new, risk-embracing world of biotechnology and innovation. For the rest of us, it’s not all good news.

We worry about keeping pace with developments and about what happens when systems collapse; we can build virtual friendships on-line but nothing really compensates for a chat at the coffee machine; and increasingly, we wonder if human performance enhancement technologies, both bionic and personality improving, are turning us into something else, something almost trans-human.

Others see a divide between those who work within the innovation dynamo and those who do not. Manufacturing jobs, contrary to predictions, are still very much around, albeit transformed by intelligent infrastructure. Building continues apace, particularly as the 2018 World Cup approaches and as docks are expanded to meet our ever-increasing import needs. These jobs can’t be done at home. And neither can some of the new jobs – sorting rubbish by hand for recycling may not be the most glamorous of occupations but over 150,000 of us now do it. In social occupations, we still need policemen to patrol our high streets – vastly changed as chain stores move online – and we still need carers for the elderly: with life expectancy now at 93 years and rising, we’ll need many more in the future.

The changing workplace has transformed the lives of millions for the better; for others, not at all; and some, for the worse. We’re heading for the roaring 2020s – but it’s not yet all coming up roses.

KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD

STRONG, INCREASING UK COMPETITIVENESS

ECONOMIC BOOMTIME

CULTURE OF PARTNERED RESPONSIBILTY

INTER-CONNECTED SOCIETY

SUSTAINABILITY: EFFICIENT, ELEGANT DESIGN

LOW-FOOTPRINT CONSUMPTION

IMMERSIVE COMPUTING & MEDIA

WORKPLACE IS EVERYWHERE

F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m


Breakout Groups

The Digital Rose Garden health and safety in the changing workplace

• First loyalties to digital social network and communities of interest;

• Focus on transcending the life / work conflict.

HEADLINES

Life?

The roaring 1920s are back.

Brain-Enhancing Drugs Boost Productivity

UK Brain Gain Boosts Innovation

Family sue over care home bionic suit accident

1 GB-wide broadband in 50% of UK homes

UK Net Hub down 2 hours after net attack; hackers get 10-year jail term

“Green de luxe”: eco-design is elegant and parsimonious.

The changing workplace has changed the lives of millions for the better

Assistive Devices, LADs): “Demand for our bionic limbs remains high and is rising now we’ve introduced a new leasing system for seniors.”

various Government agencies looking at the many ethical issues associated with the use of Human Performance Enhancement technologies in the workplace.”

Local authority employee RAHEEMA: “I just don’t know who is working and who is not.”

Health and safety representative STEVE: “WiFi remote safety inspections are a breeze, but we’re dealing with ever

ADMIRED PEOPLE

Ray Kurzweil

Philip Rosedale

VALUES

• Value exploration and creativity;

“Work? It’s all living!’

Virtuality Dependence tops sick note list.

Tonight I’m gonna party ‘cos I’m 99!

QUOTES AND METAPHORS

Not ‘shop ‘til you drop’ but ‘mod your bod’;

Worker SUE (Ex Air Host): “I’m gutted I lost my job to a robot, but now I work as a virtual holiday rep in Third Life/Westworld.”

Business Owner NEILL (of high tech company Limb

Employee representative TED: “I’m working closely with

increasing incidences of VRA (Virtual Reality Addiction).”

A THRIVING COMPANY

An SME with a small staff mixing locals and ‘knowledge nomads’, producing biomimetic clothing designs using genetically tailored bioluminescent textiles for the global market.

* These scenarios are intended to stimulate thought. They are in no way predictions of the future and do not represent HSE views on how the future may develop.



Breakout Groups

The Digital Rose Garden health and safety in the changing workplace

Partnered Responsibility A New Global Balance Sustainability Works

• Pro-active adoption of technology, management of • Globalised capital and BRIC economic strength; • Sustainability for design elegance and parsimony of system solutions;risk a partnership among individuals, business, and • Partnerships as emerging economies strengthen and

government; move to centre stage; • Embrace technology innovation, but take responsibility • Ability to absorb impacts of conflict/war, resilience in • UK Economy booming, generating innovative goods for impacts.

face of economic/social/ other shocks. and services; Workplace is Everywhere Inter-Connected Society • Labour force growing – ‘Knowledge nomads’ in-migrating: • Transformative high tech; • People are more politically engaged and unified – act UK is the place to be;

• “Glocal”: small enterprises do business globally;in partnership with government; • Offsets ageing of UK society;

• Workplace has exploded and been absorbed: it’s • Generations are more closely knit, and families are • Business initiatives succeed; everywhere;

more inter-knit with interest groups: the cyber- • Innovations based on biosciences, materials sciences, • Biosciences, new materials;extended family; design expertise – linked to CSR; small, nimble, global • An enhanced sense of connection to, and responsibility enterprises. • Ever more rapid technological advances as pace of

for, the national landscape and global environment. change outstrips development of social values, e.g., ethics. Low-Footprint Consumption

Immersive Computing • Avid consumers of experience, not consumer goods – Health and Safety Implicit

• Seamless, immersive digital data/media environment but buy high quality when they buy; • Workplace stressors/risks: stress from over-immersion;

(telecoms and computing networks; Wifi / RFID); • Designer food – but eco-friendly; • Home stressors/risks: over-augmentation; over-reliance

• Overlays the real world and everyone accesses it • Value parsimonious design resulting in resource on cyber social networks;

constantly. conservation; • Leisure stressors/risks: adrenalin overload;

Economic Boomtime • Low footprint holidays: Devon Riviera; • Attitude to H&S: a matter of exceeding congenital potential;

Increased UK competitiveness • Beyond health to HPE (Human Performance • H&S infrastructure: in partnership with peers and

• Harmonisation of regulations; differently abled in Enhancement) and augmentation; government; H&S built in at design phase, more

employment; incorporation of migrants; enterprise • But still widespread obesity. automated H&S monitoring and control;culture, expectation of well-being, and social cohesion.

• Extent of regulatory structure: HIGH



Breakout Groups

Boom and Blame health and safety in the changing workplace

Leading article – The Competitive Intelligencer:

from our database to your mobile PDA – 1 December 2017

Welcome, businesses of the world! A LSE economic survey has confirmed the UK as the world’s most supportive business environment. Low taxes and a minimal regulatory environment entice the world’s businesses to the UK free market. And in our 24/7/365 world, Britain needs to remain strongly competitive – the current economic woes of those nations that failed to keep pace with change are a daily reminder to us to do so. The world’s climate may be getting warmer, but the world’s markets are incandescent.

We’ve worked hard to become early adopters and rapid adapters. We made the most of our strengths, and business is booming in finances, business services, competitive intelligence, technical expertise, and a smaller but more competitive tourist industry. Enterprises are larger: our successful small companies have grown; less competitive companies are absorbed by larger firms. Large chunks of manufacturing have been outsourced, offshored or automated.

The job for life has gone and with it, many of the old

Biosciences have transformed teamwork and HR – companies can now evaluate candidates’ fit to corporate culture in terms of metabolism, personality, and vulnerability to workplace environments and stress. Health regimes can be tailored to our individual genetic profile, and supported by a wide array of sanctioned performance enhancement medicines. The latest new-hire perk, the HealthNano implantable health sensor, helps employees monitor their own health stats as well as productivity. For the individual, it’s preventative health care – for the company, it’s additional competitive edge. And it helps keep our 1 million workers aged over 65 healthy and at work. We can’t afford to lose them from the labour market – nor their skills.

Of course, more competition among companies means more competition within companies. We know life is losing to work under these conditions – while we can work anywhere, corporate security and privacy concerns keep most of us at the office, and at the office late: evening rush hour now falls between 8 and 10 pm. Yes, we’re still competitive, but how long can Britain’s workforce keep up this white-hot pace before blowing a collective gasket?

KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD

STRONG UK COMPETITIVENESS

ECONOMIC SUCCESS - CAN IT CONTINUE?

BLAME CULTURE

COMPETITIVE SOCIETY

STRONG CONSUMPTION

SUSTAINABILITY DELAYED

HIGH-TECH WORKPLACE | GENETIC IDs

INVASIVE COMPUTING

bonds of employer loyalty. Average tenure in post has slipped to 4 years. Most workers, across all sectors, are on short, fixed-term contracts. Being dismissed is nothing unusual. It’s just something that happens.



Breakout Groups


VALUES

• First loyalties to current company or organisation;

• Value competition and winning;

• Focus on work.

HEADLINES

• They’re Watching While You Work….

• Nuclear Power 1: Renewables 0

• Deregulate To Accumulate

PEOPLE

Worker SUE (MultiSource Energy): “I work all the hoursGod sends and more, but it’s not so bad because we’vegot pills to help us along.”

Lawyer NEILL: “Genetic profiling saves my new materialsclients a packet.”

Employee representative TED: “Health and Safety takesup way more time than pay issues.”

Local authority employee RAHEEMA: “Health andSafety? Least of my problems.”

A THRIVING COMPANY

A large corporation offering global investment and trading services, including competitive intelligence.

• Workplace pressures linked to alcohol abuse” sayshealth advisor

• Obesity: Britain tops EU league

• “Maintaining productivity is a 24/7/365 endeavour!”

ADMIRED PEOPLE

Gordon Gekko

J R Ewing QUOTES AND METAPHORS

• “There is no society, there are only individuals.”

• “Success first, sustainability later.”


• Newsagents’ collective sue over paper cuts Ex health and safety representative now working for

• ASBOs Reach Record High Health and Safety Insurance (HSI) STEVE: “The new

• ‘Phish and Chips’: RFID scam; consumers hit Health and Safety accreditation scheme is a winner.”



Breakout Groups


Blame Culture • Global free market amplifies economic divide: UK • Less consideration for the environment, leading to worsening conditions; • Resistance to new technology, economy holding steady,

• Rejection of risk, • Large enterprises; • Technology: adopt and adapt – let someone else pay

• Focused on finances, business services, expertise, for R&D, and externalise the impacts where possible. • Shattered by impacts of conflict/war;

and tourism; • Fragility in face of economic/social/other shocks. High-Tech Workplace

• Government intrudes much less – regulatory structures are reduced and the market is free; • High tech for productivity;

Competitive Society • Knowledge workers staying home; skilled blue collar • Big enterprises working globally;

• Ageing UK/European demographic; out-migrating; • Workplace standardisation and limited company-sponsored

• Widespread obesity; augmentation for competitive advantage; • New focus on extended biological family as genetic Business Adapt

• Financial sectors, technical services, expertise, and tourismhealth mapping gains importance. • Initiatives known for rapid adoption and adaptation

more than innovation; • Deregulating to generate wealth to fix environment;Invasive Computing

• UK label on services and ephemera. BUT • Pervasive computing (seamless, immersive telecoms • Deregulation adds to environmental damage.

and computing networks; Wifi/RFID) monitors productivity; Growing Consumption

• Total lifestyle, environment, and performance monitoring • Who has time to shop? ‘fastgoods’; Health and Safety only for Productivity by companies via implants tracking working wellness • Conspicuous consumption still fashionable; • Workplace stressors/risks: high pressure to compete and productivity.

• Foods healthier – must enhance productivity; successfully;

Economic Success • Nuclear power; fuel subsidies, no support for • Home stressors/risks: lack of home/down time;

Increased UK competitiveness environmental initiatives; • Leisure stressors/risks: insufficient leisure;

• Harmonisation of regulations; differently-abled in • What leisure? • Attitude to H&S: necessary to maintain productivity; employment; incorporation of migrants; enterprise culture, expectation of well-being, and social cohesion; Sustainability Delayed • H&S infrastructure: based within company; government

involvement minimal – increased role for insurance • Only stable, surplus generating economy can afford companies;A world of globalised capital sustainability;

• BRIC economic strength; • Extent of regulatory structure: MINIMAL



Breakout Groups

Tough Choices health and safety in the changing workplace

Leading article – The Economiser – 1 December 2017

We’re calling it: the recession is now a slump. Asset price deflation has spilled over into a general deflation, which low interest rates cannot correct. Chunks of our cities decay as organisations outsource and migrate. We’ve watched public agencies, NGOs, and big business cut costs and re-trench. The health infrastructure is creaking, pensioners are job-hunting with the vigour of school leavers and in some cities,

It’s no surprise that accident rates are up – as are insurance claims.

Yet in many ways, Britain’s employers and workers have proved remarkably adaptable. Short term contracts, part time working and creative shift patterns have kept many a business afloat; and the older worker – who may have skills, both technical and inter-personal, that many employers now consider lost – is valued more highly than ever before. Over 1 million workers are aged 65 or KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD

over. The challenge is to enable them to continue to DECREASED EU COMPETITIVENESS gangs clash over turf. Climate change has lost out to keep working. ECONOMIC STAGNATION battling international organised crime as the new global Britain is not a country in collapse. Flexible employers, BLAME CULTURE challenge. adaptable employees and continued business The world of work has changed. Competition for the endeavours, even in these troubled times, provide hope. FRAGMENTING SOCIETY

best jobs is hot, and disappointed candidates with great But we face at present a landscape littered with tough REDUCED CONSUMPTION CVs are looking elsewhere in the world. Elsewhere, choices and a future of tougher challenges.

SUSTAINABILITY BY COPING people are elbowing each other aside for jobs with It’s time for action. long-term health and pension benefits. Yet even with PERVASIVE COMPUTING A LUXURY high unemployment, some seasonal and labour intensive WORKPLACES CHEAP AND SHABBY jobs go begging.

In the workplace itself, the picture has changed. With shrinking revenues, ‘shabbily genteel’ now describes too many British workplaces. Reports show that old machinery, worn flooring, improvised wiring and over-taxed ventilation and exhaust systems are common. Advanced automation and intelligent systems installed just five years ago aren’t getting the updates they need.



Breakout Groups


• First loyalties to self;

•

• Wish for the luxury of choice regarding work/life balance;

HEADLINES

Monetary Policy Committee stands firm – lower interest rates must wait.

Fourth anniversary of the great crash. When will the bear market end?

Prices fell another 3% last year

Infections in warehouse linked to tag-chip implants

Crime levels reach 10-year high

a productivity tag.”

track of who you’re dealing with...”

Local authority representative RAHEEMA:

where they work?”

ADMIRED PEOPLE

Arthur Daley

VALUES

Value security;

“Where’s the aid we were promised?” say bankers.

QUOTES AND METAPHORS

“Tough choices require tough resolve.”

I can’t afford!”

Private Walker

Factory Worker SUE: “I’ve just started my third job this year, I don’t know how long it will last. The pay’s not great, but I’ll get a pound extra an hour if I agree to wear

Business Owner NEILL: ”Health and what? It’s a luxury

Employee representative TED: “I’m flat out. And companies switch management so often it’s hard to keep

“I sometimes feel like I’m fighting a losing battle. People don’t seem to listen the way they used to…”

Health and safety representative STEVE: “I’m banging my head against a brick wall. How can I improve health and safety when I barely know what people are doing or

EXAMPLE COMPANY

A medium-sized corporation working within the UK and EU, producing small electrical appliances and struggling to remain competitive.




Breakout Groups


Blame Culture Economic Stagnation Workplaces Cheap and Shabby

• Resistance to new technology; • Decreased UK competitiveness; • Outmoded high technology, no renovation of

• Rejection of risk; • Globalised capital and BRIC economic strength; infrastructure;

• Shattered by impacts of conflict/war; • Labour competing hard for one good job; • Medium-sized enterprises operating mainly in Europe;

• Fragility in face of economic/ social/other shocks. • Companies tempted to use moonlight labour; • Workplace increasingly shabby, worn, and a hazard;

Fragmenting Society • Few business initiatives; Health and Safety Circumvented • As pressures on government increase, government • Belt-tightening, retrenchment, cost-cutting.

• Workplace stressors/risks: worn office andprogrammes are increasingly undependable; Reduced Consumption infrastructure;

• Europe moving towards the wings of the global stage – • Consumption at lowest ebb in thirty years; • Home stressors/risks: unwarranted goods, lack of home seen as a fertile field for organised crime activities;

• Consumers buy cheap goods, knock-offs, most repair, stress from juggling conflicting priorities; • Worried about personal and economic security, people affordable in all categories; • Leisure stressors/risks: limited; hazards of worn-out

draw a close line around near relatives - the new infrastructure;nuclear family. • Drop in expensive imported foods, speciality foods,

organic foods; • Attitude to H&S: problems are other people's fault;

Unfavourable Demographics • Conserve resource use to lower bills; • H&S infrastructure: individual responsibility, with some

• Ageing UK/European societies; • Travel curtailed -- leisure at home; limited government advice;

• Widespread obesity; • DIY health and wellness. • Extent of regulatory structure: Who cares?

• Skilled labour out-migrating if possible. Circumvention. Sustainability by Coping

Computing Only For The Rich • No available capital to invest in retro fitting or • Seamless, immersive telecoms and computing entrepreneurial initiatives;

networks are a luxury for the wealthy; • Technology: can’t afford the R&D – or ameliorating • Increased technological monitoring of people using any negative impacts;

RFID tags; • Resource degradation increases, but with straitened • Everybody else gets by with cell phones. resources, there’s not much we can do.



Breakout Groups

A Virtue of Necessity health and safety in the changing workplace

Leading article – Sustainability Times: resources dynamically among several businesses,

Local edition – 1 December 2017 lowering costs and reducing waste. Given our concerns about climate change, this office ’co-op’ may well be

WiMax immersive edition – 1 December 2017 just a cycle ride away. And new industries are emerging The latest figures are in: going green and staying local that recycle, repair and ‘make do’. The ‘We Can Fix It’ have fertilised a dormant economy. Britain is becoming franchise is flourishing. a beacon for high tech sustainability in our technically Of course, declining birth rates and a slowdown inastonishing world. But it is also a nation with huge immigration mean it’s more important than ever to keep KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD demands on its public services, particularly health workers safe and healthy – particularly those 1 millionprovision and elderly care. The have/have not gap has workers aged over 65. This is achievable - technological REVIVING UK COMPETITIVENESS widened. Yet the march of change continues. progress has been blamed for increasingly complex THE ECONOMICS OF RECOVERY Take the world of work. In some ways, it’s similar to that health and safety issues but at least we have the ability CULTURE OF PERSONAL RESPONSIBILTY of ten years ago. Manufacturing still exists. There are still to track workers’ health and stress indicators throughout large corporations – mostly with overseas owners and the day. Or at least we do if your employer can afford CLOSE-KNIT SOCIETY

notwithstanding those that relocated overseas, taking the RFID monitor tag systems. It’s often those workers SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION many skilled workers with them. And the health and care who need them most that can’t have them – those in

“SHABBY GREEN” SUSTAINABILITY sector remains by far the largest employer. Yet in other care professions, for example, or people working shifts ways the world of work is very different. and juggling child (and parent) care responsibilities. PERVASIVE COMPUTING

Society has re-trenched. More people have shifted from So how do we keep our workers safe and well as the GREENING OF WORKPLACES

consumerism to self-sufficiency – it is a warmer world, world of work changes? No one pretends it’s easy. after all. It’s been a gain for sustainability – and, it But it’s essential. Our economy – and the future careseems, for revived competitiveness, as people re-create needs of all of us – may depend on it…businesses from a unique local and green perspective.

More and more of us work for small companies – in aworkplace as likely to be a ‘flat pack’ office in your boss’sback garden as it is an office block. More and moresmall businesses are sharing office space, productionmachinery and support staff – using software to allocate



Breakout Groups


VALUES

• First loyalties to family and local community;

• Value balance and wellness;

• Focus on life over work.

PEOPLE

Worker SUE: “It’s tough holding down 3 jobs, but at least I can check on my Gran round the corner on my mobile videophone and webcam …it’s 5 years old now but it still works OK.”

A THRIVING COMPANY

An SME focused on local markets, specialising in organic botanicals for nearby B&Bs and spas.

Businessman NEILL (Local Biofuel Producer): “I’ve had a low sugar beet harvest this year so prices are high but sales are still holding up.”

Employee representative TED: “Membership’s stable, but people seem to rely on local social networks for support.”

Local authority employee RAHEEMA: “I’m worked off my feet trying to keep tags on all the local businesses springing up.”

Health and safety representative STEVE: “I spend most of my time dealing with bad backs, what with all the local food producers.”

• “Shabby Green” is the new black;

ADMIRED PEOPLE

Charlie DimmockQUOTES AND METAPHORS

• A Nation of Tinkerers and Eco-Friendly Gardeners

Trevor Bayliss

‘Remember Reduce Re-use Recycle’

• Community spirit echoes post-World War II attitude


HEADLINES

• DIY Nation: “Can you fix it?”...”Yes we can!!”

• Carbon taxes to go up again

• “Get off our backs!” say workers and management

• Golden Oldies aim to create the Good Life

• Oranges and Lemons, from Brighton…and Melons!

• Torquay beats Torremolinos! Record visitors to seaside town…

• Public backs Governments 4Rs campaign:



Breakout Groups


Personal Responsibility The Economics of Recovery Greening of Workplaces

• Pro-active adoption of technology, management of risk; • Decreased UK competitiveness; • High tech for green health;

• Ability to absorb impacts of conflict / war; • Dawn of the Pacific Era; • Enclaves, mini-networks;

• Resilience in face of economic / social / other shocks. • Globalised capital and BRIC economic strength; • Increased workspace diversity (more small local

• UK economy is recovering, but resources are still limited; businesses, fewer large corporate offices, more home Close-Knit Society working); • People use social networking to form tightly knit special • Working in small local businesses and caring for

• Less industry, more organic and speciality agriculture, interest groups and enclaves; parents, family;

destination / experience / wellness businesses; • Families closer knit, but sometimes far-flung – children • Business initiatives are typically local, unique,

• Increased personal responsibility and green values;out-migrated for jobs; ecological, experiential.

BUT• Government focuses on elderly, health detection and Sustainable Consumption

prevention; role of coach. • Increased pressures for cost reduction can lead to • Consumption low but rebounding; increased regulatory avoidance.

Unfavourable Demographics • Consumers buy durable, efficient goods, easy to repair, Health and Safety in Moderation • Ageing UK / European societies; modular, re-usable;

• Workplace stressors / risks: more manual jobs; • Widespread obesity, but not increasing; • Purchasing more locally grown food, doing without increase in ‘traditional’ injuries; • Skilled labour out-migrating if possible. imports – and eating less;

• Home stressors / risks: too much responsibility for family; • Travel and leisure local and community-based;

Pervasive Computing • Leisure stressors/risks: minimal; • Focus on fitness, some use of HPE (Human Performance

• Seamless, immersive telecoms and computing networks; Enhancement). • Attitude to H&S: individual responsibility; Wifi / RFID; • H&S infrastructure: government as coach; self-organised

• Used to link family and local community, for environmental “Shabby Green” Sustainability support networks; and health monitoring and problem detection; eases • Forced by economic limitations – don’t have much so • Extent of regulatory structure: MODERATE. home care and enables telemedicine for elderly. you don’t use much – innovations help;

• Assess health and environmental impacts of technology before adopting.


7. BIBLIOGRAPHY

Schwartz, Peter (1991) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain

World, Wiley, ISBN 0-471-97785-3

van der Heijden, Kies (2002) The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with

Scenarios, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84491-4

van der Heijden, Kied (2005) Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, ISBN 0-

470-02368-6

Ringland, Gill (2002) Scenarios in Public Policy, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84383-7

Ringland, Gill (2006) Scenario Planning: Managing for theFuture, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-01881-1

HSE Website Horizon Scanning pages www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm

Horizon Scanning Centre, Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills:

• Sigma Scan www.sigmascan.org

• Delta Scan www.deltascan.org

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www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm

8. GLOSSARY: FORESIGHT TERMS

Confirming hit: a scan hit that provides additional evidence that an original scan hit could develop into a full-blown trend (see scan hit). Driver: development producing major change; may be an emerging issue, a trend, or a megatrend (see megatrend). Effects: this term loosely encompasses all the linked changes that change itself causes: mapping the effects of change in essence looks not just at the result of the cue ball striking the racked balls, but at the subsequent results of the balls in motion as they rebound off the table walls and each other. As differentiated from impacts: this term, on the other hand, loosely encompasses how all the players involved feel about the effects of the cue ball striking the racked balls. The "impacts" of change are our evaluations of all the effects of change - and thus vary from person to person. Emerging issue: a source of change -- the first case; the original idea or invention; the watershed event; the social outlier expressing a new value - that is, a sign of change that exists presently in only a few scattered instances, which might multiply into enough data points to constitute a trend. You might say that an emerging issue is a trend with only one or two cases, Environmental scanning: see horizon scanning. Foresight: see futures studies. “Future present:” a clumsy term to describe the time described in images of the future: the present-day of the future any image describes, or the future considered as if we were living in it now, with our present as its past. Futures studies: a trans-disciplinary, systems-science-based approach to analysing patterns of change in the past; identifying trends of change in the present; and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible outcomes in the future; in order to help people create the future they most desire. Horizon scanning: the research strategy of reviewing a broad range of information sources across all fields of investigation (STEEP / EPISTLE / PESTLEC) in order to glean data about emerging sources of change; also known as environmental scanning. Image of the future: an imaginary description (in any format or media) of a possible future outcome for a given item of interest: a person, a community, an organization, nation, society, bioregion, planet, etc. An infinite number of possible images of the future exist. This futures concept is related to the notion in physics of alternate universes. Megatrend / metatrend: commonly used to indicate a widespread (i.e., more than one country) trend of major impact, composed of sub-trends that in themselves are capable of major impacts. More precisely, a cluster of related trends which reinforce each other and together form a ‘super-trend’, of which the best example is perhaps globalisation: the cluster of related trends in production, infrastructure development and linkage, labour mobility, capital mobility, worldwide IT capabilities, etc., all of which tend to reinforce each other's growth through a complex system of interrelationships allowing feedback and feedforward. Scan source: a documentable source of information about change; may be published (newsletter, journal, magazine, conference proceedings, book, newspaper); online (website, weblog, e-journal, bulletin board, discussion group); broadcast (TV, radio); or live (focus group, conference, interview, personal conversation), as long as it is documentable. Scan hit: a datum (fact) providing information about an emerging issue, trend, or driver of change. Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation. Scenario: a technical term usually used to describe an image of the future deliberately crafted for planning or foresight purposes. It should be rooted in identifiable trends or emerging issues data extrapolated and organized using an explicit theory of social change. It should describe how changes created the particular future present out of the past, and offer a vivid, provocative,

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accessible picture of how the future present differs from today. Scenarios are often evaluated in terms of plausibility and probability; they should contain both opportunities and threats – they are statements of possible future outcomes. Scenario building: the process of combining data about change – trends, drivers, emerging issues, and their potential impacts – into a coherent, logically consistent narrative describing the world at a specified future time. Many different approaches exist, of which the following are a few examples:

• Matrix: popularised by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View, also thought of as the approach used at Shell Oil and the Global Business Network. Essentially, chooses two highly important but highly uncertain trends or emerging issues to act as “drivers” of change, and creates a 2X2 matrix by expressing each driver as a continuum between two antithetical outcomes. The scenarios are created in the four spaces defined by the opposite ends of the two continua.

• FAR/futures table: developed by R. Rhyne (1981), the Field Anomaly Relaxation approach to generating futures chooses relevant trends and emerging issues of change, forecasts a range of potential outcome values for each, and then allows the creation of internally consistent scenarios by creating a comparative table which allows checking each potential outcome of each variable against all the others, scoring for contradiction. Scenarios are generated by choosing those clusters of trend outcomes that do not contradict each other.

• Dialogue: an approach used by Sociovision and refined by Joop de Vries which explores potential outcomes of drivers, trends, and emerging issues by means of a facilitated dialogue, resulting in group mapping of potential outcomes and expression of the metaphors and future images which provide organising motifs for clusters of outcomes.

• Diversity: an approach developed at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, which focuses on creating scenarios depicting medium- to long-term futures (at least one generation out). Three to five emerging issues from different STEEP categories are used to generate potential impacts and cross-impacts; these details are woven into a narrative depicting a possible future which is maximally diverse from the present.Parameter: developed at SRI International and documented by Thomas Mandel, this approach assumes four archetypal scenario outcomes – upside, downside, transformational, and wildcard – and creates scenarios by extrapolating possible upside, downside, transformational, and wildcard outcomes for each trend or emerging issue chosen as relevant.

Seed(s) of change: see emerging issue. Trend: a pattern of change over time in some variable of interest. Having trend data for some variable implies multiple instances of that variable. For example, one revolution in Africa is an event; two or three revolutions would call for comparative case studies; fifteen revolutions in countries in Africa within five years would constitute a trend. One of the most obvious, and largest trends, is the increase in world population. A potentially even larger trend, but much less obvious -- or even agreed upon -- would be the gradual warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. Another is the continuing decline in the cost of microchips and consequently of computers. Weak signal: see emerging issue. Wild cards: low probability but high impact changes – like a global plague, or the invention of table-top fusion – usually described as events rather than gradually unfolding changes. NOTE: they may be very positive, very negative, or mixed in effects and impacts. Variable: a quantifiable subject of study, the value of which can change over time. Vision: a technical term used to describe an image of the future that articulates an individual’s or group's most closely held values, most cherished ideals, and most preferred goals in a positive statement of a preferred future outcome.

Published by the Health and Safety Executive 12/07



This report describes the processes, output, and participant evaluations of a scenario-building project completed for the Horizon Scanning function of the Health and Safety Executive. The scenario process incorporated critical issues of change derived from 28 interviews of HSE policy-makers and outside experts. Participants in a two-day scenario-building workshop chose drivers of change from among these issues, and created a framework defining four different possible futures for health and safety in the UK in 2017. The scenario process also incorporated the emerging changes identified by horizon scanning as ‘hot topics’ for health and safety. Results from the workshop were written up in two formats:

n ‘research scenarios’ that include supporting evidence such as reference to other government agency foresight research and scenarios; and

n ‘workshop scenarios’ that present the key ideas in a vivid but compressed format to generate group dialogue.

As a test of their efficacy in generating policy discussion and ideas, the scenarios were deployed twice:

n at the HSE Horizon Scanning Conference in November 2006 to spark wide-ranging discussion of possible challenges facing the HSE; and

n in a subsequent wind-tunnelling workshop to demonstrate how scenarios can be used to consider specific policies in the face of potential change.

This report and the work it describes were funded by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Its contents, including any opinions and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect HSE policy.

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