HSB for Donegal
description
Transcript of HSB for Donegal
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HSB for Donegal
ENGAGE
12 Feb 2013 • Pat Kidney
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Trends in the Irish market Mobile and FWA broadband services have become a major
feature of Ireland’s broadband market Fixed broadband speeds have increased from their previously low
level Service bundling and closer integration of fixed and mobile
services are increasingly prominent features of the market All mobile operators are engaged in network sharing multi-band spectrum auction in 2012 has raised EUR 854m 140
MHz of prime sub-2GHz spectrum The 2.3 GHz and 3.5GHz spectrum bands has potential to further
enhance competition and capacity for wireless broadband National Broadband plan has earmaked EUR175m for broadband
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In the 2016 – 2018, a mix of technologies is expected in the Irish telecoms market…
LTE, DOCSIS3.0, and VDSL to
green areas (55% pop.)
LTE and ADSL2 to blue areas (35% pop.)
Only LTE in red areas (10% pop.)
Final 10%Rural 55-90%Urban 55%
VDSL
ADSL
LTE
DOCSIS3.0
UPC will have DOCSIS3.0 in urban areas, but may not reach 55% of pop.
In urban areas LTE will have fibre
backhaul to ensure high performance
In rural and remote areas the
LTE will have microwave backhaul to
reduce cost, at the expense of
performance
Eircom will use VDSL for high
speed broadband,
and will maintain its
existing ADSL services
outside urban areas
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A comprehensive NGA solution may use FTTH, FTTC, cable, wireless and other technologies
Scenario 1: Fibre and wireless
Scenario 2: Cable, fibre and wireless
Scenario 3: VDSL and wireless
Cost of deployment by scenario
NationwideUp to 90%NSS
FTTH/GPON
FTTC
Wireless LTE
Cable
NationwideUp to 90%NSS
FTTC
Wireless LTE
NationwideUp to 90%NSS
FTTH/GPON
FTTC
Wireless LTE
Source: Analysys Mason
2,380
1,670
1,325
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Fibre andwireless
Cable, fibreand wireless
VDSL andwireless
EU
R m
illio
n
FTTH FTTC LTE+fibre LTE+microwave
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The National Broadband Scheme brought basic broadband to unserved areas of Donegal
Source: DCENR, H3GI
Target area Actual coverage
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NGA is likely to be delivered through a variety of fixed and wireless technologies NGA consists of many networks – including FTTH/FTTC, cable,
and 4G – but how much of each should be built and where?
A combination of extending the reach of fibre, plus additional wireless sites will be required to satisfy our work and social
needs
Fibre networks Wireless networks
Rely on direct physical connections to the subscriber – capital expenditure generally increases in areas where access
distances are greater (typically rural areas)
Low-frequency spectrum from the Digital Dividend could extend the reach of LTE base stations and consequently
reduce the capital costs of providing next-generation wireless broadband in rural areas
FTTC and FTTH networks require the installation of new fibre links from the local exchange directly to,
or closer to, the subscriber.Optimal duct re-use can help reduce costs
In addition to wireless infrastructure costs, spectrum fees can be expensive. To support next generation access
speeds many base stations may also require high-capacity fibre backhaul links
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Urban Rural Very rural
Pro
porti
on o
f dig
cos
ts fo
r FTT
H
to premisefrom DP
to DPfrom cabinet
to cabinetfrom exchange
Why? ….dig costs make up around 65% of total FTTH costs
Final drop ~50m
Route out of exchange
~2km
~300m
The part of the route closest to the distribution point (DP) represents the highest proportion of costs
Breakdown of costs of civil works for FTTH
Source: Analysys Mason
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We have analysed each measure from an individual cost–benefit perspective …
Source: Analysys Mason
Magnitude of annual economic benefit (EUR million)
Cos
t of i
mpl
emen
tatio
n (E
UR
mill
ion)
Mandated access to infrastructureIn-building wiring
Infrastructure atlas
1 10 1000
0.01
0.1
1
10
1000
100
One-stop shop on rights of way and
admin. procedures
Co-ordination of civil works
1000
Performs most strongly in a cost–benefit analysis, but
may have limited impact in developed markets
Reduction to cable damage could lead to
significant benefits
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5 investment models…Choice of investment model
5 models
Bottom-up
Privatedesign build and operate
Publicoutsourcing
Joint venture
Publicdesign build and operate
Group of end users oversee the contract to build and operate their own local network
Managing Authority
provides a grant to
private sector to assist in
deployment of new network
Single contract for construction and operation of network, but public sector retains ownership and some control
Ownership of the network is split between the public and private sector
Public sector owns and operates a network without any private sector assistance
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Model Advantages Disadvantages Recommended use
Bottom up • Long term, non-profit view
• Focuses demand
• Localised deployments
• Differing technologies
• Targeting localised areas• Leveraging small scale
funding
Private DBO • Larger scale• Low public burden
• Funding threshold• Limited control
• Sufficient funding to attract operators
• Effective transferral of risk
Public outsourcing
• Public financial stability with private expertise
• Greater control
• Reduced benefit to private sector
• Additional bureaucracy
• Requirement for on-going control
• More conservative operators
Joint Venture • Risk sharing • Potential conflicts of interest
• Public/private interests closely aligned
Public DBO • Public organisation has full control
• Size and scope limited by public expertise
• Requirement for absolute control
• Inspirational investment
Summary of pros and cons of investment models
Choice of investment model
Each investment model has its place
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The focus is on delivering benefit to users Socio economic benefit must be managed alongside project
sustainability to deliver long term benefits- Long term control by public sector can protect end user benefit,
however the private operators can bring invaluable expertise- Sustainability is critical as socio-economic benefits will take time
The bottom up model may suit small scale fibre projects- Long term non-profit view of end users suits the fibre business
case, but this may be difficult to leverage on a large scale Open and non-discriminatory access to infrastructure supports
effective competition
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Contact details
Pat KidneySenior [email protected] Mason LimitedSuite 242, The Capel BuildingMary's AbbeyDublin 7, Ireland
Tel: +353 1 602 4755Fax: +353 1 602 4777www.analysysmason.comRegistered in Ireland IR304061