HS3 Review and Planning Meeting

Scott Braun

Goals of Meeting• Review 2012 campaign

– Initial science results– Lessons learned

• Prepare for 2013 campaign– Status of all instruments– Changes to aircraft operations for 2013– Revised strategies based upon lessons learned and

changes from 2012 operations– Changes to MTS– Deployment details

GH Status and Changes

• Status (progress with pods, new instruments)• 2013 and 2014 schedule• Operational constraints (flight duration issues,

turn-around time, hazard avoidance, other issues)

• Fatigue management• Changes to the COA (if any)

Discussion on Wednesday

• Forecasting procedures• Flight modules & planning• Mission scientist’s roles and responsibilities• PayMOF operations

Flight Modules

AV-6 Module

Example AV-1 Modules

Review of Science GoalsEnvironment:• What impact does the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) have on intensity change?• How do storms interact with shear produced by large-scale wind systems? In

particular, how do horizontal and vertical variations in shear impact intensity change?

• How does the outflow layer interact with the environment?

Inner-core:• What is the role of deep convective towers (bursts) in intensity change?

– Are they critical to intensification? – How does the low-level wind field respond to convective bursts? – How does the upper-level warm core depend on convective bursts?

• How do intrusions of dry air impact intensity change?• What changes in storm structure occur prior to and during genesis and rapid

intensification?

• Two aircraft:

AV-6 = environmental GH

AV-1 = over-storm GH

• Deployments of GHs from the East Coast— Wallops Flight Facility in VA

• 5 week deployment in 2013 (Aug 20-Sept 23)

• Currently 4 weeks in 2014

• 275 flight hours per deployment (10-11 flights)

Dots indicate genesis locations. Range rings assume 26-h flights.

HS3 Mission Overview

16 h loiter

6 h loiter

Environmental Payload

NOAA

U. Wisc.NASA/GSFC

Temperature

Relative Humidity

Aerosol Backscatter

Over-Storm Payload

NASA/MSFC NASA/GSFCJPL

HIRAD excess TB

HIWRAP dBZ and vector winds

HAMSR T´

• Unable to add YES dropsonde system for HS3.

• Possible piggybacks

– GPS surface wind sensors

• On AV-6 in 2013

– Gamma ray detector

• On AV-1

New Instruments for 2013

z

Py

h

xReflection

Area

GPS

Sγ

GPS surface winds

HS3 in 2012

• Challenges– Only 1 storm while at WFF– Dropsondes almost disallowed

by FAA– Numerous tech. & logistical

challenges– No AV-1

• Successes– 1 very persistent storm– Good interactions with

FAA/VACAPES– Smooth WFF operations/chase

coordination– Great work by forecasters,

mission scientists, flight planners, ESPO, & crew

2012

Nadine’s track

21 26 3228 30

AV-1 Prep for 2013-2014• AV-1 did not make the 2012 deployment due to aircraft issues

• Test flight in Pacific on Nov. 5-6

• In addition to HAMSR and HIWRAP, flying HIRAD for the first time

OSCAT image from 00 UTC 6 November

HS3 Observations of Leslie’s Outflow7 Sep 20121041-1111Z

Black, Red, Blue and Pink lines:Global Hawk observedwind speed and temperature profilesalong jet maximum from dropsondes

Green line: COAMPS-TC modelwind speed profile

Red line: Satellite wind speed vertical average

Solid black: TropopauseDashed: Cirrus top / jet maxDotted: Cirrus cloud baseYellow shading: Cloud Physics

Lidar (CPL) domain

Cloud top

Cloud base

Tropopause

Courtesy of P. Black

Impact of HS3 Dropsondes for NadineTrack Error (nm) Intensity: Max. Wind Error (kts)

Intensity: Min. SLP Error (hPa)

Bias (dash)

HS3 drops

No dropsHS3 drops

No drops

HS3 drops

No drops

Bias (dash)

• Dropsonde impact experiments performed for 19-28 Sep. (3 flights)

- Blue, with HS3 drops- Red, No drops with synthetics

• COAMPS-TC Intensity and Track skill are improved greatly through assimilation of HS3 Drops. Courtesy of J. Doyle

Best track, NODA, and EnKF-Initialized Forecasts

(a) Track (b) Intensity

HIWRAP radial velocity assimilation from Hurricane Karl• Use same WRF-EnKF system as used at PSU

(F. Zhang et al.)• Use up to 450 superobs/h (150/h from

analysis time and +/- 1 h) • Reject any ob. with Vr < 15 m/s or dBZ < 25• Assimilate P/I at 18Z/16th, then P/I + Vr 19Z

through 07Z/17th

• Best results from tight flight pattern