HPC - NAMEHPC - NAME

Mike BodnerDevelopment Training Branch

mike.bodner@noaa.gov

HPC’s Products & Services

P QPFs & Excessive Rainfall

P Probablistic Heavy snow

P Probablistic Icing

P Medium Range

P Basic Weather

P Surface Analysis

P Model Diagnostics

P NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database)

P South American, Caribbean & Saudi Arabian Forecasts

P Tailored forecasts in response to emergencies

P Backup to TPC/NHC Hurricane forecast program

Excessive RainfallExcessive Rainfall What is Excessive Rainfall?What is Excessive Rainfall? Rainfall heavy enough to cause excessive runoff or floodingRainfall heavy enough to cause excessive runoff or flooding

How do we produce an Excessive Rainfall Forecast?How do we produce an Excessive Rainfall Forecast? Based on expected short-term rainfall and RFC computed flash Based on expected short-term rainfall and RFC computed flash

flood guidance issued each dayflood guidance issued each day One & three hour FFGOne & three hour FFG We don’t use 6, 12 or 24 hour guidanceWe don’t use 6, 12 or 24 hour guidance

Excessive Rainfall Forecast GraphicExcessive Rainfall Forecast Graphic

Excessive Rainfall Forecast GraphicExcessive Rainfall Forecast Graphic

Isolated Excessive Rainfall(ball & chain line)

PUsed in situations when the ingredients are present forexcessive rainfall, but the overall situation is marginal(low confidence forecast)

Used more in summer months• Due to scattered nature of convection• Lack of organized activity

Used heavily in the western US• Monsoon season

Used more when FFG numbers are relatively high

QPF Day 1QPF Day 1

QPF Day 2QPF Day 2

HPC Text DiscussionsHPC Text Discussions

Model DiagnosticModel Diagnostic Day 1-3 QPFDay 1-3 QPF Excessive RainfallExcessive Rainfall

National Precipitation Prediction Unit National Precipitation Prediction Unit

(NPPU)(NPPU) HPC and SAB Working RelationshipHPC and SAB Working Relationship

Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of NESDIS is co-located with HPC is co-located with HPC

The SAB precipitation meteorologists The SAB precipitation meteorologists provide 6 regularly scheduled satellite provide 6 regularly scheduled satellite briefings per day to HPC QPF forecastersbriefings per day to HPC QPF forecasters

SAB ProductsSAB Products

Satellite precipitation estimates Satellite precipitation estimates Guidance for heavy rain and snow Guidance for heavy rain and snow

associated with winter storms associated with winter storms Satellite precipitation estimate Satellite precipitation estimate

message (SPENES) message (SPENES)

► GOES infrared (IR), visible, and water vapor imagery► GOES Sounder data and Derived Product Imagery ► GOES satellite-derived winds ► Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) ► NOAA Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) ► Surface and upper air data

Goes Sounder PW DataGoes Sounder PW Data

AMSU Microwave DataAMSU Microwave Data