How$to$Profit$fromLowRiskLayBets$ - What Really Wins Money · 2020. 2. 28. ·...
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Transcript of How$to$Profit$fromLowRiskLayBets$ - What Really Wins Money · 2020. 2. 28. ·...
How to Profit from Low Risk Lay Bets
In this free report, we’ll be looking at laying outcomes on the betting exchanges, with a specific focus on limiting our risk.
There are a number of techniques we can employ, in our featured betting markets (tennis, football and to a lesser extent horse racing) which allow us to lay a number of outcomes, limit our risk, and
have an outstanding chance of success.
In this free report, we’ll be looking at the following
What is laying? What is the liability issue and why this is a key component of laying? How do we define “low risk” in the context of laying?
Low Risk Laying techniques specifically in Football, Tennis and Horse Racing Markets.
So let’s get cracking.
What is laying?
Laying can be defined in its most simple terms as “backing an outcome to lose”. If you want to delve deeper into the definition, please visit www.betfair.com and click on ‘Help and Learning Centre’.
Or go straight to: http://tinyurl.com/culjylt
The liability issue
This is a unique element to laying which needs to be looked into if we are to lessen our risk.
What is liability?
Let’s look at backing first. This is the traditional bet you’re used to: you go to your bookies, you fancy a horse -‐ it’s odds are 4/1 -‐ you back said horse for £10.
You stand to win £40, and get your £10 stake back if your horse wins. But who pays out the £40 if
the horse wins?
That’s right, the bookie. Bookies are what are known as “layers”. They accept back bets. The £40 payout if the horse wins is their “liability”.
With the advent of www.betfair.com, you can now become the bookie, the taker of back bets, or in other words, the layer!
But you must take into account the liability.
Let’s take a look at a hypothetical lay bet of a horse called Middlebrook in the 235 Southwell, on 27th
July 2012.
In the first example, I want to lay Middlebrook in order to win £100 if the horse loses its race:
The odds to lay Middlebrook are 5.5. If I lay Middlebrook at odds of 5.5 to win £100, my liability will be £450.
If Middlebrook wins its race I will lose £450. If Middlebrook loses its race I will win £95.10 (£100
minus Betfair Commission).
This is the liability issue. Liability is what you incur if any outcome you have layed has the temerity to win its race. It’s easy to get a ballpark figure, here’s how:
Odds minus 1 multiplied by backer’s stake
So, in this case the odds are 5.5 minus 1 = 4.5 multiplied by the stake of £100 = £450. £450 is our
liability.
If we are to lay low risk bets, then this liability issue has to be accounted for.
Let’s look at laying Middleton again, only in this instance we will lay the horse to lose a specific amount of money, rather than win a specific amount of money.
Betfair actually offers us the facility to do the above, they call it “fixed liability” laying.
Here we have used the Liability feature arrowed on the right and in this case, rather than looking to win £100 we are looking to fix our liability at £100.
And here I suppose we have our first example of lowering the risk when we are laying. In our first example, we layed Middlebrook to win £100, but the liability was £450.
In order to lower risk, we can lower liability. In the 2nd example, we did exactly that. We lowered liability by fixing it at £100. This lowers the money we have at risk if Middlebrook wins, but of course
if we lower risk, we lower returns if the horse loses its race.
Liability and Risk then are inherently connected. Lower your liability and you lower your risk. You can lower your liability by “fixing” it (as shown above) or you can lower your liability by lowering the odds at which you lay.
Look at the example below:
If you recall, when we layed Middlebrook to win £100 at odds of 5.5, the liability was £450. In the example above in the women’s Tennis, I have layed Jovanovski to win £100, only this time at odds of
1.25.
The liability? £25 rather than the £450 for Middlebrook, but we still have a chance to win the same amount of money!
How is this possible? Simple. Whenever a bet you want to lay is less than 2.00 in decimal odds (and Betfair operates exclusively using Decimal odds), your liability will always be less than the stake you
are trying to win.
The problem here? 1.25 shots will win far more often than not.
Despite lowering risk by lowering liability, we have not necessarily increased our chances of profiting.
But there are specific techniques that you can employ. Personally, I tend to focus on football and tennis when I create low risk bets. There are techniques you can employ with horse racing. However,
there are far more variables to account for in horse racing, so my focus will primarily be with Football and Tennis. Let’s begin with Football.
Football
Betfair offers a huge array of Betting Markets for Football matches, and within these we can find, or create, truly low risk lay bets.
Note I said the word “create” and that was deliberate. Some football markets on Betfair go “in-‐play”
meaning that bets can be placed while the match is being played.
It is in this “in-‐play” environment that you can create low risk lay bets. I go into detail on this later.
There are 3 “angles of attack” when looking to lay low risk bets in the Football. These are:
To lay in Big Field Markets To lay using in-‐play football matches and Trading Focus on specific Football Competitions
Laying in Big Field Markets
This is the first angle of attack when looking to lay low risk bets. However, I think I should clarify
what I mean by Low risk in this context.
So far, there has been a link between risk and liability.
When we are laying in Big Field Markets, the risk is different. In Big Field Betting Markets, there is less of a risk that a lay will be a winning one.
Why? Because there is greater competition. Here is a typical Big Field Betting Market:
This is a Correct Score Market in the Chelsea v Reading Premiership Match. How do I know this is a “Big Field” Market? Look at the number arrowed in the above screenshot.
It tells you how many selections there are in this particular market.
There are 17 selections. If we lay one selection in this betting market, we have 16 others “running
for us”, so to speak.
We have natural competition. I have layed the 2-‐0 Chelsea scoreline here, to win £10. Look at all of the other scorelines that I have on my side. Note also that I have “any unquoted” scoreline on my side, which covers any scoreline where one team has scored at least 4 goals.
Other “Big Field” Markets include
The Half Time score market with 10 Selections The Asian Handicap Market with potentially 33 Lines ( although realistically a lot of those 33
lines will not have any liquidity) The Total Goals Market with 7 Selections The Winning Margin market with 10 Selections
The To Score market with 30 selections The First Goal Odds market with 10 Selections The Shown a Card Market with 30 Selections
The Last Goalscorer Market with 30 Selections The First Goalscorer Market with 32 Selections The Scorecast Market with 130 Selections
The Correct Score 2 away and Correct Score 2 Home Markets with 13 Selections The HalfTime/FullTime Market with 9 Selections
The 2nd Half Correct Score Market with 10 Selections The Wincast with 39 Selections
The more selections, the more competition for any potential lay, and the less likelihood that lay will
actually win (and cost us lost liability). Note above that a number of these betting markets are what is termed “ illiquid”. It means there is no money in the markets, or little money in the markets.
Here is an example of lack of liquidity from the Wincast Market:
There aren’t even any odds in the Lay Column! And if you look at the Matched Amount, only £292 has been matched.
Strong “Big Field” Markets include the Correct Score Market, Total Goals Market, the HalfTime Score Market, and the HalfTime/FullTime Market.
The risk is negated in this case by dint of the fact we have a number of bets “running for us”. The
liability issue still remains. I suppose a rule to lessen the risk even further would be to use fixed liability laying on higher odds bets.
Certain Football Competitions can provide us with Low Risk Lay Bets
There are specific matches which allow us to lay teams at short odds with a reasonable expectation of success. But we should not be too disheartened if the teams win, as we will be laying very short
odds on shots.
Friendlies are welcome betting mediums here!
I normally cringe when I see friendlies on the betting coupon. Pre season friendlies (usually throughout July) are not the most reliable of betting mediums, but that’s great news for layers!
Layers welcome unreliability!
Here’s a list of a few well known teams failing to justify their short odds (or providing an opportunity for low risk lay trading!)
1.44 shots Chelsea.
Oh Dear! 3-‐1 defeat.
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa.
A 3-‐1 defeat is not really expected of the Premiership Outfit!
Oldham Athletic v Manchester City.
The Premiership leaders go down to Oldham Athletic… Manchester City began their July 2012 pre season friendlies poorly for their backers -‐ much to the delight of their layers!
A 1-‐0 loss to Al Hilal and a 0-‐0 draw with Dynamo Dresden.
Look at Arsenal in their pre season matches and remember as a layer of Arsenal that a draw is a
winning result for you. Pre Season matches for Arsenal in 2011 and 2012 have been shocking. A single win.
Do note that there are some teams who you should avoid as a layer in their friendlies. Look at the record for Manchester United in Pre-‐Season Friendlies:
As an aside, you can check a team’s friendly form specifically at www.soccerway.com. This website allows you to see form broken down to overall / cups/ club friendlies, as well as showing you overall form, home form singularly and away form singularly.
Club Friendlies therefore offer us an ideal opportunity to lay the right teams. This can also be
achieved in specialist competitions such as the Carling Cup where these major teams will be playing second string sides and be showing a general disdain towards the competition.
Specialist Tournaments
Add to your List certain matches in Specialist Tournaments such as the World Cup (remember the performance of New Zealand during the South African World Cup?), and the Olympics (look at the
dire performance of the Spanish).
A simple technique is to shortlist short priced teams from the Betfair In-‐Play Coupon and then use websites such as www.soccerway.com to determine if the matches played are friendlies.
Alternatively, go to www.betfair.com, click on Sports-‐-‐-‐Football-‐-‐-‐Coupons -‐-‐-‐Friendlies to specifically bring up friendly matches.
In-‐play and Trading
My free reports Betfair Trading Made Easy and Laying Low Risk Bets have familiar threads running through them, and one is the concept of delayed entry.
Laying Low Risk Bets with delayed entry
If there are no odds on shots you are comfortable of laying, in your traditional football coupon, then why not create opportunities to lay, specifically in In-‐play football matches.
You’ll know by now where to locate in-‐play football matches from my other report Betfair Trading
Made Easy.
Using delayed entry, we need In-‐play football matches. The concept is simple:
Wait for a potential shock (goal for underdog) Or, react to nothing happening!
Wait for a Potential Shock
A very familiar concept by now, but this really is a cracking way to lay low liability bets (which by definition are low risk as we are not putting much money at risk).
Example: The Scottish Premier League began recently with Celtic v Aberdeen… Celtic were priced at
1.25 and expected to win.
Here’s the result and goal time, followed by an analysis of the low risk/low liability lay bets we could have created.
This goal was scored in the 79th minute. How could we have created lay bets here?
Here’s some of my ideas into approaching this match.
Consider laying the draw as the match continues at 0-‐0. Look for specific times such as the beginning of the second half, the 60 minute mark or the 70th minute mark. The later the better of course. Why? As layers, we want to lay at the shortest price. If a match is 0-‐0, the
price for the draw will continue to drop the nearer the end of the match we get to. Consider laying the 0-‐0 correct score. Remember in an earlier example I mentioned that
when we lay a correct score, we have 16 other scorelines running for us! This would be low
risk, albeit with risk increasing the later into the match we get. Perhaps consider laying 0-‐0 if that were the scoreline at halftime only in a match where one or both teams have a
reputation for scoring. By laying at halftime, we have the whole of the 2nd half for a single goal to be scored.
It’s a very simple idea isn’t it, and has an element of logic about it.
The above is an example of laying low risk/low liability bets when nothing happens!
In the example below, again fresh off the Betfair In-‐Play coupon, we delay entry into the game until a potential shock unfolds.
It’s the Olympics, and Brazil are priced at 1.16 (have you noticed so far that examples I choose
always tend to have short priced favourites? Quite simply, it makes my life easier as the market is telling you what to expect in the odds!)
Here’s a breakdown of the goals scored in this match and then I’ll analyse entry points into this match.
What’s happened here? Honduras have scored in the 12th minute and lead 0-‐1 against 1.16 red hot favourites Brazil.
Here is our first entry point.
Lay Honduras at 0-‐1 up. Their odds, when compared to what they were pre-‐match, are
considerably lower. This is low risk. Why? Well, they have scored early. There are 78 minutes remaining for Brazil to remedy the situation. Further, Brazil are renowned goalscorers with Hulk (don’t make him angry!), Oscar (the Grouch ) and Neymar (re-‐inventing the mullet)
upfront. This is an Olympics match so we would expect Brazil to fight back after what looks like an apparent unexpected Honduran first goal.
Lay the 0-‐1 scoreline. Again although the odds are 14 to lay (remember the liability issue), I
would consider this a reasonably low risk lay bet. Why? Again the goal was scored early in the match and scored by the underdog.
I hope you get the idea here. We will be focussing on the following:-‐
Short priced favourites in the in play betting coupon on Betfair. Short priced teams are priced short for a reason! Do your research to justify that the odds are realistic (see Profiting
from Live Football and Betfair Trading Made Easy). Wait for nothing to happen. In this case, if you are expecting goals, enter the market in play
as late as you can. The odds will shorten for the 0-‐0 scoreline and the draw. As layers, we
want to lay at short odds (as this will reduce liability). Enter at significant times such as after halftime, or on the 60th, 70th, 75th, 80th minutes or so on.
Wait for something to happen – that something being a shock result! See the Brazil match
for a superb example. Lay the team who score first and consider laying the correct score.
It’s a simple and effective formula for laying low risk bets in Football.
This delayed entry concept is also as effective in the Tennis markets at www.betfair.com
And it is to Tennis that I look now.
TENNIS – Delay-‐React-‐Trade
These 3 words for me epitomise the strategies we should employ in creating our own opportunities to lay low risk/low liability bets in Tennis Matches.
Before I go on, I would suggest we limit ourselves (again), to in-‐play tennis matches at
www.betfair.com. The reason I insist upon this (for myself at least) is because it affords us the flexibility of trading as an option.
In order to access Betfair Tennis In-‐Play Matches, go to www.betfair.com: SPORTS -‐ -‐ -‐ Tennis -‐ -‐ -‐Coupons -‐ -‐ -‐ Today’s In-‐Play Matches.
DELAY
The first tactic we can use for tennis is akin to the tactic used for Football, and that is to delay your entry into the betting market. “Wait and See” is a good policy here. What this allows you to do is to react to that word again – shock!
The shock we want to see is a red-‐hot favourite in trouble, either suffering a break of serve or, even
better, a loss of first set (and in a 5 setter a loss of the 2nd set too would help matters.)
This allows us to lay the opponent at a shorter price (in running) than was available pre match.
Example: Andy Murray v Jarko Niemenen. Niemenen won the first set 6-‐1, was 3-‐2 and 15-‐40 up in the 2nd set and was trading at 2.00 to back. His odds had dropped dramatically to evens.
At 6-‐1 first set, 4 games to 2 up in the 2nd set, Niemenen was available to lay at odds of 1.8. This is low risk.
Why?
Well, firstly Niemenen is playing a World Number 3 Player adept at extricating himself from some
tight spots.
Secondly, we are laying an odds on shot, and therefore our potential winnings are greater than our liability. This is something we ideally want to see as layers.
Thirdly, certain mens’ tennis matches are the first to 5 sets, meaning that (very much like Honduras
scoring an early goal) Andy Murray has time enough to redress the balance against an inferior player.
We’ve seen how the delay-‐react strategy works, and now we can use trading to lower the risk even more.
How?
Simply, we turn our lay of Niemenen into a lay trade on Niemenen. Having layed him at 1.8, only 17
minutes later, Niemenen’s price had risen to 3.4 as Andy Murray slowly secured the 2nd set to bring parity to the match.
Why, then, sweat it out until the end of the match as we would have to with a lay bet of Niemenen?
We can, by lay trading, lay at 1.8 and back at 3.4 and take an early profit and negate our liability (thus neutralising risk). Please read the Betfair Trading Made Easy report for a full breakdown of
tennis trading in action.
Lay Short Priced Favourites Pre Match.
An alternative to the Delay-‐React-‐Trade philosophy with Tennis Laying is to lay a player pre match.
Why?
Well, especially in men’s tennis which has been dominated by the Dirty half-‐half Dozen of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, these players regularly appear at extremely unbackable odds. This can also apply to some certain ladies’ matches, especially in the Grand Slam events.
Unbackable odds though should be considered for laying.
Why?
Well these odds are unbackable because they are short priced. But layers, remember, want to lay at short prices because it reduces the liability considerably.
And with tennis it’s mano v mano (and of course womano v womano) and the immortal tennis best can sometimes be, well, human!
Andy Roddick at Queens this year was priced 1.06 to back against Jamie Baker and he lost the match.
As a layer, well to win £100, your liability will be a paltry £6. Huge upside, minimal downside and a
chance can be taken.
Trading could be the key here.
Laying short priced (and I mean any player 1.11 in odds or lower – i.e. £100 backed will pay you only £11) male players, particularly in best of 5 setters, and women in Grand Slams can be exploited more
often if lay trading rather than lay betting (by betting I mean we lay pre match and will only win if the player loses).
When lay trading ultra short priced players pre match, we only need to see the price rise at some
stage during the match in order to profit with relatively low risk.
Look at these price graphs:
Venus Williams against Date Krumm was 1.05 pre-‐match. Her price went up to 1.45 when she was 2
breaks of serve down in the first set. She eventually won the match.
As a trader this is a successful and low risk lay. As a bettor, yes this is still low risk ( because we are, for instance, putting £5 liability at risk in order to win around £100 by laying Venus at 1.05), but we miss the opportunity to engineer a profit during the match.
Laying in Horse racing Markets
LAYING LOW PRICED HORSES
Understanding the relationship between risk and liability, one method of laying horses with low
risk is to lay short priced horses. This reduces liability naturally.
The problem? Short priced horses are priced short for a reason. The market expects them to win. They don’t all win you’ll be pleased to hear and there are ways you can ensure that you are laying the short priced horses that are vulnerable.
VULNERABLE MARKET LEADERS
How do we find vulnerable short priced favourites?
The ideal here is to do a form analysis of races involving short priced horses in order to build up a case to oppose.
There are ebooks available specific to this laying form analysis. Please contact me for my recommendations.
In this report, I want to reproduce an article I wrote for my newsletter What Really Wins Money
SHOPPINGCART LINK TO GO FOR WINS NEWSLETTER PROMO HERE
on the weaknesses to hone in on when looking to oppose short priced favourites:
“The purpose of this article is to give you some pointers regarding finding horses to oppose and thus profit from by laying on betting exchanges such as Betfair. Build a case The key to success is to build a case to oppose. We are like lawyers in that we are looking for evidence to oppose a horse, evidence that that horse will not be winning its race. The more reasons you can find to oppose a horse, the stronger the case you build, and the more confident you should become in your laying. Factors that weaken horses Here is a list of factors that I would look for which might suggest to me that a specific horse’s winning chance is weakened. I will list them below: The Draw: The draw can play an important part in a horse’s chances of winning the race. To quote the Statman (a regular contributor to What Really Wins Money) “under certain conditions it’s the draw that has to be beaten and not the other horses!” The Race Type: There are many different types of races during the flat season. Can you logically list some race types off the top of your head where, perhaps, the horses are not the most reliable or consistent form wise? Let me start you off – 2-year-old maidens – 2-year-old sellers – in fact pay attention to all 2-year-old races as the horses are only babies and still learning; selling stakes races; selling handicap races; Class 6 and Class 7 handicap races (low class races naturally attract low class horses – look out especially for those rated 0-60 – next stop Blackpool Beach Donkey Derby); apprentice ridden /conditional jockey ridden/ lady jockey ridden races. The Ground: Some contend that the ground is the key factor to a horse’s successes. Look for extreme ground conditions (Firm, good to firm, soft to heavy, heavy). Look also for changes in ground conditions on the day itself. Look at the horse’s form. Is the horse predominantly a performer on heavy ground (usually found with Irish racehorses) and is it running on good ground today? The Jockey and Trainer: If the jockey and trainer are currently in poor form, then the horse becomes a riskier win-only proposition.
Irish Racing: From my perspective Irish racing is a lot more competitive than English racing and thus an ideal focus for laying. Form: Recent form can be a good hint as to how the horse is likely to run in this race. Has the horse predominantly ridden over different ground? Has the horse won recently? Look out for multiple winners. They might be ripe for laying, especially in handicap races. Winning sequences always end. The longer a winning sequence, the nearer the horse should be to that winning sequence ending. Debutant: Is the horse a debutant on the surface? For example if a horse is running on the all-weather, and particularly at the unique Southwell, for the first time, this can be viewed as a negative. Other debuts? If the horse appears on the race course for the first time, he could run “green”. Look for any sign of the horse being a debutant (i.e. running at the distance for the first time; up in class for the first time; first time in a handicap; first run on turf/all-weather; first run of the season). Long absence: The early part of the turf flat season is an ideal time in which to oppose horses that, by necessity, have had enforced winter absences. High profile long absentees like 2000 guineas favourite St Nicholas Abbey, ran well below par on his return. Race competitiveness: The greater the rivalry to a market leader, the better the chance we have of that horse being beaten. Competitiveness can be measured in three ways: 1) Size of Field – the bigger the field the more competition there is for the win, 2) The price market. If the betting market is tight, i.e. the prices are close together, this can suggest that the race is competitive, 3) The quality of the race. Group 1 and listed class races naturally attract high quality opposition, even amongst the perceived outsiders. Distance: Like ground, extremes in distance can make it more difficult for market leaders to win. By extremes in distances I mean 5f at one end of the spectrum and 2 miles at the other end of the spectrum. The shorter the distance, the more a mistake or tardiness will be punished. The longer the distance, the more tactics will come into play and a jockey has a greater chance of being tactically inept. Market move for one horse to the exclusion of others: If there is a horse that has been backed from, say, 3rd favourite to favourite while the original market leader has fallen to 2nd or 3rd favourite as a consequence, consider laying the original favourite. The place-only price. Here is a little trick you might like to use. I tend to look at the place-only price in the Place-Only market at Betfair. If the horse is priced 1.5 or higher to place, I would see this as a negative . The bigger the place-only price, the bigger the hint that the horse might not actually win. Imagine this race: 5f 16 runner 2-year-old amateur rider’s selling stakes in heavy ground in Naas, Ireland where the favourite has the worst draw and the betting market shows 3/1 favourite, 7/2 2nd and 3rd favourite, 4/1 4th favourite, 5/1 5th and 6th favourite.
Would you be a backer in this race? I certainly hope not. Would you have a case for opposing the favourite. Too flipping right!! How I approach a day’s racing This is how I would approach a day’s racing as a layer. From a personal perspective, I would be looking at laying market leaders. My argument for insisting on this is simply a practical one. Laying brings with it liability. If you oppose a horse to win a specific amount of money, if that horse loses, you have to put at risk liability which is the amount of money you will have to pay out if the horse wins the race. If you lay a horse, in order for that bet to be taken, there has to be a 2nd party willing to oppose your view. For every layer there is a backer. For every lay bet there is a possible payout if the horse wins. My first step of the day would be to list all races I see as price gapper races or races with a perceived strong favourite. A price gapper appears in races where the market leader is markedly ahead in the betting when compared to the 2nd favourite. Here are two examples from 1st May. After I have a list of these “price-gappers”, I would then analyse any weaknesses along the lines of the factors I look for when building a case to lay. By listing price gappers in this way, we are immediately focusing on relatively short-priced horses whose liability is likely to remain low enough to not be a large concern. 1/5 305 NEWMARKET BETTING FORECAST: Evs St Nicholas Abbey, 7/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/1 Canford Cliffs, 10/1 Awzaan, 12/1 Fencing Master, 20/1 Al Zir, Dick Turpin, Inler, Xtension, 28/1 Makfi, 33/1 Hearts Of Fire, 40/1 Viscount Nelson, 66/1 Fair Trade, 100/1 Buzzword, Elspeth’s Boy, Lord Zenith, Red Jazz, 200/1 Audacity Of Hope, Greyfriarschorista. DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, who looked such a fine prospect when slamming Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir in the Racing Post Trophy. Stable-companion Fencing Master, who only just failed when short on experience in the Dewhurst, can follow him home. In this race, I would note potential weaknesses as follows: Competitiveness. This is the 2000 guineas and although we have a clear favourite we also have 18 other top-class horses in opposition. Although there is no competitiveness by price, there is competitiveness by race type and the sheer amount of runners in opposition.
The Race Type. As hinted at above, the 2000 guineas means this race features the best horses from the best stables. Normally, when we look for a race type to lay we would look towards sellers and so forth, but note that Group 1 and listed races can also be good for laying because of the sheer quality of the opposition. Long absence. Around 188 days off the track and returning to such a competitive race I saw as a negative. Place-only price. The place-only price was 1.45 to back, which was relatively high and hinted to me that this was no gimme! Debutant. Seasonal debut and first run in 2000 guineas. These were four reasons to oppose St Nicholas Abbey. As you have built up a case to oppose, is there sufficient evidence for the other side, i.e. to back the horse? For me, the positives were: • Jockey and trainer combination. Ballydoyle and Aiden O’Brien are worthy of the utmost respect. • Diomed stated this horse is “ hard to oppose” • Solid form, albeit nearly 200 days ago. As things stood, this horse was making his debut in a 19 runner ultra competitive classic race after nearly 200 days off. I certainly would not back. St Nicholas Abbey finished 5th 400 GOODWOOD BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Aspectoflove, 9/4 Shamwari Lodge, 4/1 Super Sleuth, 10/1Hafawa, 14/1 Ahla Wasahl, 16/1 Please Sing, Tropical Paradise, 20/1 Carcinetto, 25/1 All Annalena, First City, 50/1 Victoria Sponge. DIOMED VERDICT: Preference is for ASPECTOFLOVE (nap), who put up a very good effort in a Group 3 in Dubai last time. Competitiveness Looking at the live betting market, I perceived this race to be an ultra competitive affair. 3 horses were showing at 5/2 each. Market move for one horse to the exclusion of others. In this instance, Super Sleuth was backed into joint 5/2 favouritism. Note that Super Sleuth was 4/1 in the betting forecast and was now challenging for favouratism at 5/2. Could this possible confidence in Super Sleuth allow us to lay Aspectoflove – after all the live betting market is showing 3 horses all similarly priced, one a market mover, plenty of competitiveness. The betting market at the off showed Super Sleuth and Shamwari lodge at 5/2 joint favourites, Aspect of love at 4/1 and Hawafa at 5/1. Race type. No this is not a seller, this is a Class 1 listed race and, as we have already
established the competitive element here, we can assume all horses are top quality in such a field, so the original favourite has plenty of rivalry. Aspect of Love finished 4th. The front 4 horses were covered by 3 lengths – now that’s competitive!! Every day, I would proceed like this, listing all races where there would seem to be a good market leader in the Racing Post betting forecast, and where there is a price gapper (for example St Nicholas Abbey evens 7/1 – that is quite a price gap) Next, I would look through all of the factors listed and note them in each race (as I have done above). I am trying to build a case to oppose. I would also try to build a case to back, and see which is the strongest. The lay factors above are by no means definitive. See if you can come up with some of your own. You can perhaps use the Postdata tables found in the Racing Post and award points for any horse who has the most X’s in each column? The best lays would tend to be those which contain the most factors listed. St Nicholas Abbey had five factors listed. Perhaps you can determine strength of bet by the number of lay factors a horse can accrue. Don’t forget my little tip about looking at the place-only market prices. This can prove very insightful. Logic dictates that if a horse’s price to place is unnaturally high, then there is a slight lack of confidence that the horse will place – ergo there is a niggle that the horse can actually win!”
I hope this free report provides you with ideas which you can use in order to find low risk lay bets,
and create low risk lay bets.
One thing I hope you have taken from this Report is “specialisation”. Laying Low Risk for me requires you to work your “niche” areas as well as use the in-‐play betting facilities at www.betfair.com.
No longer do you need to lay pre match and then hope for the best.
You can use what I call DELAY-‐REACT-‐TRADE in order to make low risk laying profitable. This tactic works superbly in tennis and football markets.
Horse racing is such an involved topic for the layer that I have only been able to offer an introduction
here. Suffice to say, the key determinant is “building a case to oppose” any one horse.
With horse racing, risk can be lowered by focusing on short priced favourites (naturally lowering liability) or laying bigger priced horses who have less of a chance of winning (and whose liabilities/risk can be reduced by fixed liability staking).
There is enough in this Report for you to practice and see if you can sniff out these low risk lay bets.
Happy hunting!
