Howling in the Twilight Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics February 17, 2010 Presented by:...
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Transcript of Howling in the Twilight Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics February 17, 2010 Presented by:...
““Howling in the Twilight”Howling in the Twilight”
Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics
February 17, 2010
Presented by:
Mark RobertsonFounder and Managing Partner –
www.manifestinvesting.com
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Club History & CharacteristicsClub History & Characteristics
Club Name: Wolves
Location: Central Michigan
# of Members: 15 (Mixed, Very Diverse)
Founded: November 1993
The group includes a banker, a dentist, a dental hygienist, a hospital chief administrator, an
insurance agent/owner, retail business owner, (3) librarians, (2) teachers, (2) IT professionals, a
veterinarian and a small business owner ...
The club was founded by a group of teachers as an after-school activity. Five of the charter members are still active partners although they admit that they “use MANIFEST, invest regularly and stay happy.”
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
A Tribute To LibrariansA Tribute To Librarians
“In a world that is increasingly oversaturated with a torrent of disconnected information, more and more we look to our librarians
as the guides to the truth.” – Vartan Gregorian, president of Carnegie Corporation of New York
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
A Tribute To TeachersA Tribute To Teachers
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Club Long-Term Performance (5-Year Returns)Club Long-Term Performance (5-Year Returns)
The Wolves rank in the top percentile in this analysis profile of managed portfolios.
The overall rating is based on (1) historical relative returns, (2) projected return and (3) quality.
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Current Dashboard (Report Card)Current Dashboard (Report Card)
We talk about real stocks, real-time analysis and real opportunities here. Do your own homework.
No investment recommendation is intended.
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Quality
3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
Sales Growth
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
PAR
Dashboard View: (1) Returns, (2) Quality, (3) GrowthDashboard View: (1) Returns, (2) Quality, (3) Growth
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Sector Diversification & Opportunity Analysis
Cash1%
Staples12%
Discretionary17%
Technology15%
Industrials11%
Financials 8.8%
Healthcare35%
PAR by Sector
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Discretionary
Utilities
Energy
Staples
Financials
Industrials
Healthcare
Materials
Technology
Communications
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Challenge: Should we sell Infosys (INFY) ... Lowest PAR?Challenge: Should we sell Infosys (INFY) ... Lowest PAR?
Sales Growth Forecast ~ 10%
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Challenge: Should we sell Infosys (INFY) ... Lowest PAR?Challenge: Should we sell Infosys (INFY) ... Lowest PAR?
Answer: No. A PAR of 8.6% is not different (enough) than a MIPAR of 9.6% ... With its top shelf quality rating, we’d watchfully hold INFY,
monitoring profitability in particular. A “sell” condition would kick in if PAR wandered closer to 5-year T-bill yields (2.39%)
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Purchase Candidates: FCN and AFAMPurchase Candidates: FCN and AFAM
With the next cash infusion, the Wolves will have 1.9% of assets to invest and (18) stocks ... Making it clear that they are a mature club that needs to emphasize caretaking over “shopping” and identifying
opportunity within the portfolio itself.
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
FTI Consulting (FCN)FTI Consulting (FCN)
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
FTI Consulting (FCN): Growth Forecast, Mid-Teens ... FTI Consulting (FCN): Growth Forecast, Mid-Teens ...
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Accumulate 100 shares of FCN ... Accumulate 100 shares of FCN ...
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
Think Results. Impact. Before and After. Bigger Picture.Think Results. Impact. Before and After. Bigger Picture.
Before. After.
The accumulation of FTI Consulting nudges the portfolio in the right direction. In the words of Faith Hill, “Don’t Hurry ... But Don’t Wait.”
Think cadence and steady discipline.
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Dashboard DiagnosticsDashboard Diagnostics
bivio dozen (2/17/2010) bivio dozen (2/17/2010) www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboard/12218www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboard/12218
Published monthly, the bivio dozen is a listing of the top 1% of all stocks covered by MANIFEST – based on a combination of PAR and Quality.