How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy...
Transcript of How to use your Vitec PowerPoint template · Prediction horizon (hours) Figure I Forecast accuracy...
PercentilesChrister Modin, Model Developer
Outline
Estimating uncertainty
Percentiles
Demo
Estimating uncertainty
Follow Up - Plug-ins
• Histogram
• Scatter plots
• Hourly overlay
Estimating uncertainty
Aiolos Model StudioPrediction horizon
Percentiles
P75 (3rd Quartile)
P50 (Median)
P25 (1st Quartile)
x = P25 ⟺ Pr(X≤x) = 0.25x = P75 ⟺ Pr(X≤x) = 0.75
25 %
25
%
25 %
25
%
Percentiles in Aiolos
Based on historical performance
Conditional error distributions
Model types
• Wind power
Prediction horizon
Forecasted value
• Load
Prediction horizon
Hour of day, day type
• Solar
Prediction horizon
Hour of day
(Not from ensemble Weather Forecasting)
Displaying and exporting Percentiles
• Selectable range (P0 – P100)
• High-Low Area plot
• Export (all validations)
Estimating Percentiles
• Period
• Extract• Saved forecasts
Filter prog-files
• Recreated forecasts
• Forecast type• Exported
• Unadjusted
• Customizable in script
Demo
Percentiles
Thank you!Christer Modin, Model Developer