How to Develop and/or Update A Simple and Clear Assessment Plan
How to Trade More Consistently with Clear, Simple and...
Transcript of How to Trade More Consistently with Clear, Simple and...
How to Trade More Consistently with Clear, Simple and Objective Entries & Exits
December 29, 2016
WWW.ACTIVETRENDTRADING.COM
DENNIS W. WILBORN, SR.
HTTPS://TWITTER.COM/TREND_DWW
DisclaimerU.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER – COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALSO LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS.
DON’T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES OR OPTIONS. NO REPRESENTATION I S BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED IN THIS TRAINING. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAINLIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOTREPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN E XECUTED, THERESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAINMARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS INGENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OFHINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELYTO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
ALL MATERIALS PRESENTED ARE FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY . TRADERS SHOULD PAPER TRADE ANY NEW METHOD PRIOR TO RISK OF PERSONAL CAPITAL.
Clarify, Simplify & Multiply
This has been the Motto of Active Trend Trading from the beginning!
We continuously work to Clarify & Simplify through refinements to the system to make it objective and easy to both learn and use.
The purpose of all presentations is to provide our fellow Active Trend Trader Members a jump start to accelerate progress up the Learning Curve.
We welcome suggestions on how to improve the learning process!
Trade Wisely & Profitably,
Dennis W. Wilborn
Founder & Lead Technical Analyst
- Founder & Lead Technical Analyst for Active Trend Trading - Certified Candlestick Technician- Affiliate of Market Technician Associations- Guest Speaker on IBD How to Make Money in Stocks Radio Show- Highlighted in the book “How to Make Money in Stocks-Success Stories”- Publish “Art & Science of Active Trend Trading—Trader’s Report” Weekly- Host “How to Make Money Trading Stocks Show” Weekly- Systems Researcher- Former Forbes Contributor
- Retired US Navy, Commander- Civil Engineer- Adjunct Professor MBA Program Chaminade University, Oahu, Hawaii- Started Trading in 1989- Started Trading For a Living in 2006
- Research Colleague Mike Trager, Dallas, Texas
• Our Motto: Clarify, Simplify & Multiply
Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr. [email protected]
• Trading Consistency is achieved by repeating a successful pattern of behavior over time based on using the rules of a proven successful simple system!
Copyright 2007-2016 Active Trend Trading
• Trading Consistency is achieved by repeating a successful pattern of behavior over time based on using rules of a proven, successful, simple system.
• Objective Entries: Optimize How Much You are Willing to pay to enter. Enter when there’s an edge and the probabilities are in your favor. Don’t loose money on the entry.
• Objective Profit/Loss Exits: Insurance policy that keeps us from becoming….
Copyright 2007-2016 Active Trend Trading
Entering off the 8 Period EMA
• Our research has found that learning to trade off of
a specific moving average can lead to higher entry
consistency because of objective entry criteria.
• It is crucial to find moving average sets that are
applicable across variable timeframes such as
intraday, daily, weekly and monthly charts
• For the Active Trend Trading System the 8 period
EMA has performed well in over 10 years of back
testing and live trading!
Back Testing SPY 2004 - 2013
Copyright 2007-2016 Active Trend Trading
• While using the 8 period EMA to trigger trades we
have found there are 3 stages which traders need
to be aware of
• Each of these stages carries a different reward/risk
profile and a different set of expectations
• The following charts highlight these stages on an
up trending chart
• Similar observations are applicable to down
trending conditions
Entering off the 8 Period EMA
Objectives
The initial 8 Period EMA Trigger (Daily)
1. Price Action Close above the 8 day EMA—triggers alert
2. Estimate a value of 8 period EMA & where it will be the following
day
3. Place Conditional Order at defined level (usually 0.10-0.50 above
8 day EMA), Stop Limit order to open position bouncing above
the defined level
4. Stop Loss 4% on Daily Triggers
5. Simple Profit Targets: T1 = Daily 5%-15%
T2 = Daily 15% - 25%
6. Other Profit Criteria can be used to stay with a trade longer
EXAMPLES—DAILY
Early Stage - Consolidation
Late Stage
1 2
1
2
3
Other Considerations
1. Market Conditions often tops a stocks trigger
2. Are prices pulling back to a lower moving
average? 20 day or 50 day
3. Whipsaw? More prevalent in Early and Late
Stages
4. Take the trades because—we never know exactly
which trade will be a worker and which will be a
slacker!
5 Objective Profit Exits
Entries tend to be easy. Anyone can get into a trade. But, properly exiting a trade requires understanding and planning
1. Objectively plan the stop loss because this establishes the size of the position based on a set level of pain your willing to endure. My threshold is 4-5%
2. Profit targets are often unplanned. Beginning traders will sometimes let big winners turn into losers because they have no plan for letting the market pay them.
“Vision is the art of Seeing Things Invisible!”
~~ Jonathan Swift
“People Only See What They are Prepared to See”
~~ Ralph Waldo Emerson
“Observe things how they are;
See things how they can be!”
~~ DWW
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
Set Percentage: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% from
Entry
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
10 %
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
Set Percentage: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% from
Entry
Fib Extension
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
Set Percentage: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% from
Entry
Fib Extension
Symmetry Extension
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
1
2
Symmetry where 1 ≈ 2
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
Set Percentage: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% from
Entry
Fib Extension
Symmetry Extension
Keltner or Moving Average Extensions
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
2. Pivot High/Low
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
Uptrend: at each Pullback place a trailing stop slightly below a new swing low
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
2. Pivot High/Low
3. 8 Period Moving Average
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
Close below the 8 period EMA—or a violationof the low of a close below the 8 period EMA
Entry
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
2. Pivot High/Low
3. 8 Period Moving Average
4. TSI – Up Tick or Down Tick
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
Cross Down – Take partial profit
Cross Up - Take price low of that day as new trailing stop
5 Objective Profit Exits
5 Objective Profit Exits
1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry
Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average
Extensions
2. Pivot High/Low
3. 8 Period Moving Average
4. TSI
5. Engulfing Candlesticks
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Engulfing Candlesticks: Close
at end of period or next period
on a violation of the low of the
engulfing pattern
5 Objective Profit Exits
- Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry Extensions, Keltner or
Moving Average Extensions
- Pivot High/Low
- 8 Period Moving Average
- TSI -- Also works with Slow Stochastics
- Engulfing Candlesticks
5 Objective Profit Exits - Summary
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
What to Trade (Top Quality IBD Growth Stocks & Top Notch ETF’s)
The Active Trend Trading System
For ANY Market Condition ATTS Shows & Teaches members:
When to Enter: Entry Action Point
Pillar 5
Pillar 1
Pillar 2
Pillar 3
Pillar 4
When to Exit: Exit Action Points
What Strategy to Use
What to Expect
Our Motto: Clarify, Simplify & Multiply
The Active Trend Trading SystemOur Motto: Clarify, Simplify & Multiply
Three Point Strategies based on ATTS
Active Trend Trading System
Strategy II Basic
OptionsStrategy III
WealthBuilding &
Income Generation
Strategy I Stocks &
Index ETFs
ATTS Objectives: Provide a clear & simple trading systems for busy people! So they can become Wise, Profitable and Winning Traders!
1. Active Trend Trading Membership: $54.99 per month but you save 40% limit time:
$32.99
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For “How To Make Money Trading Stocks” attendees go here for a special
membership offer:
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Questions?
Thank you all
Finish 2016 Strong
Be Ready for Explosive Growth in 2017
Questions
Copyright ATTS 2007-2016
Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr. [email protected]