How to Tap Progress: The Role of Trade Openness Raymond Robertson Macalester College.
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Transcript of How to Tap Progress: The Role of Trade Openness Raymond Robertson Macalester College.
How to Tap Progress: The Role of Trade
OpennessRaymond RobertsonMacalester College
Trade Policy in Three Parts
Mexico’s recent trade policyThe Apparel ExperienceNorth American Integration
Prospects for the future
Trade Policy
A Remarkable Transformation
Trade liberalization in early 1990sGATT 1986NAFTA 1994WTO 1996Trade Policy: TTBs
Mexico: A Liberalization Leader
05
10
15
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010year
Trade Weighted Simple Average
Ad Valorem (%)Figure 1: Mexican Average Tariff RatesMexican Average Tariff Rates
Robertson, Raymond (2011) “Mexico: A Liberalization Leader?” in Bown, Chad P. (ed) The Great Recession and Import Protection: The Role of Temporary Trade Barriers. London, UK: CEPR and the World Bank.
Increasing Trade Diversity
025
5075
100125
150
175200
225250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010year
USA GermanyJapan ChinaRest of World
Billions 2000 US DollarsFigure 2: Total Mexican ImportsTotal Mexican Imports
Average Anti-dumping Duties Imposed
Country
Number of Covered HS8 Categories
Earliest Final Dumping
Decision Date
Latest Final Dumping
Decision Date
Simple Average
DutyChina 1113 25-May-92 16-Apr-09 210.49Indonesia 1 4-Jul-03 4-Jul-03 182.05Germany 5 29-Feb-88 28-May-07 149.46Japan 4 25-Jun-90 30-Oct-00 97.70India 2 17-Oct-91 7-Dec-95 60.05EU 5 13-Jul-90 23-Aug-99 50.94Ukraine 13 1-Jul-95 9-Apr-08 49.81Netherlands 5 25-May-92 19-Dec-95 48.43Brazil 35 29-Nov-88 24-Jan-06 47.36Canada 6 19-Dec-95 9-May-05 41.17Russia 16 1-Jul-95 8-Sep-05 39.69Kazakhstan 2 29-Jun-99 29-Jun-99 34.00USA 77 4-Sep-87 7-Sep-05 29.61South Korea 5 9-Aug-93 28-Feb-02 28.81Guatemala 2 13-Jan-03 13-Jan-03 25.87Venezuela 2 23-Dec-91 28-Dec-95 25.02Denmark 2 28-Mar-00 17-Dec-07 24.98Spain 4 3-Apr-89 12-Dec-03 16.41Taiwan 4 11-Oct-90 14-Nov-03 15.57
United Kingdom 1 23-Dec-09 23-Dec-09 5.91Chile 1 20-Oct-94 8-May-06 0.14
Peso Crisis
U.S. Recession
Financial Crisis
-.002
5-.0
02-.0
015
-.001
-.000
50
Tota
l
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
Year Coefficient EstimatesFigure 7: Annual Probit ResultsAnnual Probit Results
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 1995 2000 2005 2009year
China USARest of World
Billions 2000 US$Figure 5: AD Covered Trade by CountryAnti-Dumping Covered Trade by Country
.289
5.2
9.2
905
.291
.291
5C
hin
a
.05
.050
5.0
51.0
515
.052
.052
5U
SA
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
USA China
China and the United StatesFigure 6: Annual Probit ResultsAnti Dumping Probit by Country:
Trade Policy: Main Points
Mexico has largely embraced trade liberalizationAlthough USA remains important trading partner,
Mexico has aggressively pursued trade agreements with other countries; trade has diversified
Mexican TTB measures began with notable focus on China with large number of AD duties
Focus remains on the USA and ChinaDuration is often longVery little evidence of increase during the crisis; crisis
measures fit into recent context rather than seeming to be a break from past patterns
Main lesson: Hard to blame trade policy for lack of growth
Apparel
Big Picture
Hanson, Gordon, and Robertson, Raymond (2010) “China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries” in Feenstra, Robert and Shang-Jin Wei (Eds.) China's Growing Role in World Trade, National Bureau of Economic Research. Also NBER Working Paper 14497.
Overall, Mexican competition from China is limited
In certain sectors, however, Chinese market share rose while Mexico’s fell
Main example: Apparel
Popular Perception
Star Tribune 14 September 2012 p. D1
Mexico ChinaHong Kong Korea
Dominican Republic HondurasBangladesh IndonesiaTaiwan India
Philippines ThailandOther
Source: OTEXA
2000U.S. Apparel Imports
China VietnamIndonesia Bangladesh
Mexico IndiaCambodia HondurasEl Salvador Sri Lanka
Pakistan NicaraguaGuatemala Other
Source: OTEXA
Through July 2012U.S. Apparel Imports
05
01
001
502
002
50U
.S. A
ppa
rel I
mpo
rts
(Mill
ion
s)
1990m1 1995m1 2000m1 2005m1 2010m1Time
Category Units (SME)U.S. Apparel Imports from Mexico
Apparel Exports: Change After MFA
Log GDP per Capita
Fitted values Log Change in Total Apparel Exp
4 6 8 10 12
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
Nepal
M adagasc
Banglade
Cambodia
Pakistan
Vietnam
India
Guyana
Bolivia
Philippi
Honduras
M ongolia
Sri LankIndonesi
Swazilan
Parag uay
Morocco
China
Jor dan
Armenia
Ecuador
Ukraine
AlbaniaThailand
F iji
M acedoni
Peru
Dominica
Ir an, Is
Bosnia a
Azerbaij
Colombia
Saint ViSaint Vi
South Af
Botswana
Belarus
Bulgar ia
Costa Ri
Panama
M auritiu
M alaysia
Brazil
Arg entin
Kazakhst
Romania
Ur uguay
Mexico
Turkey
Chile
Seychell
Russian
Poland
Lithuani
Latvia
Hung ary
Cr oatia
Estonia
F rench P
T rinidadT rinidad
Korea, R
M alta
Czech Re
Portug al
Slovenia
Bahrain
Isr ael
New Zeal
Hong Kon
Cyprus
Gr eece
Spain
Japan
Singapor
M acau, C
United K
Andorr a
Ger many
F rance
Canada
United S
Belgium
Australi
Austria
F inland
Sweden
Iceland
Nether la
Ir eland
Denmar k
Switzer l
Nor way
Luxembou
Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys and Raymond Robertson (eds) (2012) Sewing Success? Employment, Wages, and Poverty Following the End of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Implications
Has Mexico moved beyond apparel and into other goods?
YesWill apparel return to Mexico if Chinese
wages continue to rise?Unlikely: Other suppliers have much lower
costs and higher product responsiveness◦Bangladesh◦Cambodia
North American Economic Integration
Mexico’s Trade Strategy
NAFTA’s goal: Increase trade and investment among North America
Trade and investment increasedRestructuring of Mexico’s manufacturing:
◦Integration into North American production chain
◦Continued emphasis on assembly operations◦Innovation?
U.S. and Mexican MFG Employment
.8.9
11.
1
1994Jan 1996Jan 1998Jan 2000Jan 2002Jan 2004Jan 2006JanTime
US Prod Emp 94=1 MX NonProd Emp 94=1MX Prod Emp 94=1
Robertson, Raymond (2009) “Estimating International Labor Complementarity: Some Preliminary Results”, in Soloaga, Isidro (ed.) Sobre México: Temas actuales de política económica Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla (UPAEP), Puebla, Mexico, 53-70.
2.9
33
.13
.23
.3M
XM
FG
11.
51
21
2.5
13
13.
51
4U
SM
FG
2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1time
USMFG MXMFG
Source: BLS CES (US) and INEGI (Mexico)
Millions of WorkersManufacturing Employment
-50
51
0U
S$
Tra
de B
ala
nce
1993m1 1998m1 2003m1 2008m1 2013m1Time
USA ChinaEurope
Billions U.S. DollarsMexican Trade Balance
400
00
450
00
500
00
550
00
600
00
Exp
ort
s to
US
(1,0
00,0
00s)
240
02
60
0T
ota
l Em
pl (
1,0
00s)
200
7:1
200
7:2
200
7:3
200
7:4
200
8:1
200
8:2
200
8:3
200
8:4
200
9:1
200
9:2
200
9:3
200
9:4
time
Total Empl (1,000s) Exports to US (1,000,000s)
(Border States: Non-Tradable Sectors Only)Employment and Exports to the US
Employment and Wage Responses to Trade Shocks: Evidence from Mexico during the 2008-09 U.S. Recession (2012 Working Paper) David S. Kaplan (Inter-American Development Bank, [email protected])Daniel Lederman (World Bank, [email protected])Raymond Robertson (Macalester College, [email protected])
North American Integration
Prior to NAFTA, U.S. production workers◦and Mexican empleados were complements◦and Mexican obreros were substitutes
After NAFTA, U.S. production workers◦and Mexican empleados were substitutes◦and Mexican obreros were complements
We should think of North America as a single production unit.
But…
120
001
4000
160
001
8000
Tho
usa
nds
of W
ork
ers
1980q1 1990q1 2000q1 2010q1Time
1982-2012U.S. Manufacturing Employment
Source: U.S. BLS CES
Progress in the Value Chain Context
Integration into value chain has distinct advantages
Key to progress in the value chain context is the ability to upgrade◦Process◦Products
Countries with directed policies towards upgrading tend to have more success
Conclusions
Mexico has been a leader in trade liberalization among developing countries
Mexico merged into the North American value chain
Continued diversification important Key to success in value chain context is
directed policies to encourage upgrading